智通财经APP获悉，中信建投证券发布研究报告称，8月22日，上证指数涨1.45%站上3800点，算力、芯片股集体爆发。近期国产算力板块迎来密集催化， 8月13日，腾讯业绩会表示公司推理芯片供应渠道侧具备多种选择；8月21日，DeepSeek更新模型版本至DeepSeek-V3.1，预计将支持FP8精度以及国产芯 片；近期，基于华为昇腾芯片的服务器产品陆续在政府、金融、运营商等行业落地大单。国产算力芯片迎来国产替代窗口期。考虑到英伟达新品迎来大幅 性能升级，并面向中国市场禁售，国产算力芯片发展刻不容缓。当前已经涌现出一大批国产算力芯片厂商，昇腾、寒武纪相继推出自研AI芯片，海光信 息的DCU也逐渐打出知名度，其他配套环节的国产化进程也正在加速推进。 国产人工智能芯片发展趋势及展望 海外龙头占据垄断地位，AI加速芯片市场呈现"一超多强"态势。 数据中心CPU市场上，英特尔份额有所下降但仍保持较大领先优势，AMD持续抢占份额势头正盛。AI加速计算芯片市场上，英伟达凭借硬件优势和软件 生态一家独大，在训练、推理端均占据领先地位。根据IDC数据，2024年国内AI加速计算芯片市场中，英伟达出货份额达70%，华为昇腾出货 ...

Group 1: Strategy and Market Outlook - The report indicates that the computing power sector has entered a main rising market, fulfilling necessary conditions for a significant market uptrend similar to the mobile internet boom in 2013 [8][10] - Short-term opportunities are identified in packaging testing, storage, computing chips, algorithm technology, and software, which show favorable technical indicators [13] - Mid-term analysis suggests that the valuation gap between Chinese and US computing power sectors is expected to converge, with higher performance expectation adjustments in advanced packaging, storage, and power sectors in China [11][12] Group 2: Company-Specific Analysis - Tianshan Co., as the largest cement producer in China, is expected to achieve revenues of 83.3 billion, 82.6 billion, and 82.1 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 1.72 billion, 2.15 billion, and 2.70 billion CNY respectively [23][24] - The company is currently valued at a low PB of 0.5x, with a target price set at 8.22 CNY per share, reflecting a "buy" rating [23] - The report highlights that Tianshan Co. is well-positioned to benefit from regional infrastructure policies and has potential for cost reduction through enhanced management and resource utilization [24] Group 3: Economic and Industry Trends - The report notes a slowdown in industrial and service sector growth, with retail sales continuing to decline, indicating a weakening domestic demand [5][26] - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 5.3% year-on-year, with significant declines in real estate development investment, which fell by 17% [27][28] - The cement demand is projected to decline by 5%-6% in 2025, but the report anticipates stabilization in the long term, particularly in regions like Xinjiang [24]

Core Insights - The report highlights the macroeconomic impact of "anti-involution," suggesting a mild improvement in PPI (Producer Price Index) due to ongoing policy efforts to enhance competitive order and stabilize economic growth [6][5][4] - The report discusses the performance of various companies, including Haiguang Information, which reported a significant revenue increase and is on track to establish a full industry chain layout [11][13] - The apparel industry is facing challenges, with Under Armour's Q1 FY2026 revenue declining by 4% year-over-year, while other luxury brands like Ralph Lauren and Hugo Boss show mixed results [7][9][8] Market Trends - The domestic market indices showed varied performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,647.55, up 0.34%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 1.46% to 11,291.43 [4] - The textile and apparel sector saw a 4.23% increase, outperforming the broader market, while the light industry manufacturing sector rose by 2.57% [9] Company Analysis - Haiguang Information (688041.SH) reported a 45.21% year-over-year revenue increase in H1 2025, reaching 5.464 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.201 billion yuan, up 40.78% [11][13] - The company is expected to maintain high growth due to strong demand for domestic high-end chips and a significant amount of contract liabilities indicating future revenue [11][13] - Under Armour's Q1 FY2026 results showed a revenue decline, with North American sales down 5% to $670 million, while international sales decreased by 1% to $470 million [7] Industry Commentary - The report emphasizes the ongoing challenges in the apparel sector, with Under Armour's revenue expected to continue declining in Q2 FY2026 [7] - The textile manufacturing sector's exports showed mixed results, with a slight increase in textile exports but a decrease in apparel exports [9] - The jewelry market remains stable, with gold consumption down 3.54% in H1 2025, but demand for gold bars and coins increased significantly [9][10]

集成电路 海光信息（688041.SH） 买入-A(维持) 上半年收入保持高增，全产业链布局即将成型 2025 年 8 月 11 日 公司研究/公司快报 邹昕宸 公司近一年市场表现 事件描述 | 市场数据：2025 年 月 | 8 | 8 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元）： | | | 136.12 | | 年内最高/最低（元）： | | | 171.90/71.70 | | 流通 A 股/总股本（亿 | | | 8.87/23.24 | | 股）： | | | | | 流通 A 股市值（亿）： | | | 1,206.78 | | 总市值（亿）： | | | 3,163.89 | | 基础数据：2025 年 | 6 月 | 30 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基本每股收益(元)： | | | 0.52 | | 摊薄每股收益(元)： | | | 0.52 | | 每股净资产(元)： | | | 10.30 | | 净资产收益率(%)： | | | 6.85 | | 资料来源：最闻 | | | | 执业登记编码：S076052 ...

Macro Strategy - The report analyzes three historical cases of capacity adjustment over a century, highlighting the negative feedback loop of capacity imbalance and the importance of government intervention to restore balance [1][12] - It emphasizes that supply-demand rebalancing requires simultaneous efforts in controlling capacity, restoring credit, and stabilizing employment, rather than relying solely on supply or demand policies [1][12] Fixed Income - The new bond value-added tax regulation enhances the relative attractiveness of credit bonds, as their interest income is not subject to the tax, while government bonds lose their tax exemption [2][3][13] - The adjustment in tax rates is expected to narrow the yield spread between credit bonds and other interest rate bonds by approximately 10 basis points, with potential increases in relative value for credit bonds by 5-15 basis points for proprietary trading departments [2][3][14] Industry Analysis - The asset operation and maintenance (O&M) industry is gaining importance post-capital formation peak, with growth driven more by product development than by personnel or capital [4][15] - The report indicates that the O&M market is projected to grow significantly, with the current market size at approximately 2.44 trillion and expected to reach around 5.5 trillion in ten years [4][15] - The report suggests focusing on companies like Borui Data, Rongzhi Rixin, and Xianheng International, as they are positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for high-quality O&M services [4][15] Electronic Industry - The ASIC business model requires service providers to have strong IP design and SoC design capabilities, with major players like Broadcom and Marvell holding significant market shares [5][16][17] - The custom chip market is projected to reach $55.4 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 53% from 2023 to 2028, driven by the demand for AI acceleration [5][16][17] - The report highlights the potential for margin pressure in the custom chip business due to increased competition from domestic firms entering the AI ASIC market [5][16][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 5.464 billion RMB in 1H25, representing a year-over-year increase of 45.21%, with a net profit of 1.201 billion RMB, up 40.78% year-over-year. In 2Q25, revenue reached 3.064 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 41.15% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 27.66% [1][6]. - The company is experiencing rapid growth in its CPU and DCU product lines, with a notable increase in customer recognition and market expansion. However, profit growth is currently lagging behind revenue growth due to declining gross margins and rising sales and R&D expenses [1][2]. - The report highlights the acceleration of domestic high-performance computing chip production, with expectations for continued strong performance in the company's CPU and DCU products [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2Q25, the company reported a gross margin of 59.33%, down 4.5 percentage points year-over-year and 1.86 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to product mix changes from CPU transitions and increased DCU sales [2]. - R&D expenses in 2Q25 were 0.792 billion RMB, up 42.2% year-over-year, while sales expenses surged by 249.26% year-over-year to 0.138 billion RMB [2][12]. Market Outlook - The company anticipates accelerated growth in DCU revenue in 2H25, supported by new product launches and partnerships with leading internet firms [3]. - A significant asset restructuring is underway, which is expected to enhance the company's competitive position in high-end computing and data center markets [3][4]. Valuation and Price Target - The target price is set at 176.6 RMB, with adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027 reflecting a slight decrease due to anticipated changes in gross margin [4][7]. - The report projects net profits of 3.322 billion RMB, 5.587 billion RMB, and 6.468 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10][19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in Q2 performance, emphasizing the opportunities in domestic computing power [1] - The company is actively integrating its supply chain and strengthening the domestic computing power ecosystem [8] - The demand for AI computing power is surging, presenting historical opportunities for domestic chip manufacturers [8] - The company has leading products in both CPU and DCU segments, with expected steady revenue growth [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 6,012 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.30% - By 2025, total revenue is expected to reach 12,915 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 40.96% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is estimated at 1,263 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 57.17% - By 2025, net profit is projected to be 2,867 million yuan, showing a growth of 48.49% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is 0.54 yuan, expected to rise to 1.23 yuan by 2025 [1] - The P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 252.72 in 2023 to 111.33 in 2025 [1]

A股进入8月交易，本月解禁规模明显超过过去几个月。Wind数据显示，8月112家上市公司迎来解禁， 解禁总市值达5172.05亿元，6月-7月解禁市值均不超过2900亿元。 8月的解禁市值也是年内剩余月度中最高值。第一财经记者统计（按最新收盘价统计，下同），9月、10 月、11月、12月的解禁市值分别约为2841亿元、3646亿元、1483亿元、3842亿元。 8月的解禁市值大增，主要系千亿芯片龙头海光信息（6880份41.SH）的1980亿元巨量解禁，占当月解 禁总市值比重38.3%，公司是8月唯一家千亿解禁股。另外，润泽科技（300442.SZ）、联影医疗 （688271.SH）、徐工机械（000425.SZ）的解禁市值较大。 单月5000亿解禁，涵盖多家半导体头部股 整体来看，8月将解禁的112家公司中，有50家的解禁市值超过10亿元。海光信息、润泽科技、联影医疗 3只股的解禁规模居前，解禁市值分别为1980.54亿元、518.21亿元、307.76亿元；徐工机械、大族数 控、（301200.SZ）、格科微（688728.SH）、江波龙（301308.SZ）的解禁市值也超过百亿。上述7只股 的解禁市值合 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the merger between Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang is expected to enhance the competitive advantage in the computing power industry and improve future development potential [1] - Haiguang Information plans to conduct a stock swap merger with Zhongke Shuguang, with a share price of 143.36 yuan per share, and dissenting shareholders have the right to sell their shares back to the company if the stock price falls below 136.13 yuan [1] - The merger is anticipated to shift Haiguang Information from a single chip business to providing comprehensive domestic computing power solutions, creating synergies and reducing costs in the supply chain [1] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, Haiguang Information achieved revenue of 2.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.8%, and a net profit of 506 million yuan, up 75.3% year-on-year [2] - The company maintained high R&D investment focused on general computing and AI computing markets, leading to continuous technological innovation and product performance improvement [2] - The three major expense ratios decreased to 33.53%, down 6.5 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to a nearly 5 percentage point increase in net profit margin [2] Group 3 - Haiguang's main products include CPU and DCU, which are compatible with the x86 instruction set and widely used in key industries such as telecommunications, finance, and education [3] - The demand for domestic computing power chips is expected to accelerate due to trade conflicts and the need for licenses for H20 supplies to China, benefiting Haiguang as a rare DCU design manufacturer [3] - The company is expected to see rapid sales growth in CPU products as the domestic computing power market continues to thrive [3] Group 4 - The profit forecast for Haiguang Information estimates net profits of 3.202 billion yuan, 4.673 billion yuan, and 6.709 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 65.81%, 45.96%, and 43.56% [4] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are 1.38 yuan, 2.01 yuan, and 2.89 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 103, 71, and 49 times [4] - The target price set for Haiguang Information is 175.0 yuan [4]

Core Viewpoint - The merger between Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang is positioned as a "strong union" in China's computing power industry, aiming to create a comprehensive ecosystem from chips to complete machines [1][8]. Summary by Sections Merger Details - The merger involves Haiguang Information issuing A-shares to all shareholders of Zhongke Shuguang, which will lead to the latter's delisting [2]. - Haiguang Information will inherit all assets, liabilities, and rights of Zhongke Shuguang post-merger, with plans for fundraising to cover transaction costs and enhance liquidity [2]. Share Exchange and Pricing - The share exchange ratio is set at 1:0.5525, with Haiguang Information issuing a total of 808 million shares, while Zhongke Shuguang has a total share capital of 1.463 billion shares [3]. - The exchange price for Haiguang Information is 143.46 CNY per share, while Zhongke Shuguang's price is based on a 10% premium over the average trading price of 79.26 CNY per share over the previous 120 trading days [3][4]. Investor Concerns and Valuation - Investors raised concerns about the fairness of the exchange price and whether Zhongke Shuguang's value was underestimated [4]. - The pricing mechanism is based on a market-oriented approach, considering long-term value rather than short-term fluctuations, with a valuation report to be provided by a third-party agency [4]. Shareholder Protection Mechanisms - The merger includes provisions for dissenting shareholders, offering them the option to sell their shares at a predetermined price [5]. - The buyout price for dissenting shareholders of Haiguang Information is set at 136.13 CNY per share, while Zhongke Shuguang's dissenting shareholders have a cash option at 61.9 CNY per share [5]. Strategic Implications - The merger aims to consolidate the computing power industry, which is currently fragmented, and enhance competitive strength through a complete ecosystem from chips to applications [7][8]. - The combined entity is expected to leverage its strengths in R&D, supply chain, and market sales to improve product offerings and customer satisfaction, thereby increasing brand influence [8].