新品验证顺利放量，Q2 盈利能力大幅回升 半导体 | | | 执业证书编号：S0740521120002 Email：wangfang02@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740521120001 Email：yangxu01@zts.com.cn 联系人：冯光亮 相关报告 1 、《【 中 泰 电 子 】 拓 荆 科 技 动业绩爆发》2024-09-10 拓荆科技（688072.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 26 日 Email：fenggl@zts.com.cn | 总股本(百万股) | 279.73 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 279.73 | | 市价(元) | 182.86 | | 市值(百万元) | 51,151.27 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 51,151.27 | | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E ...

Performance Forecast - The company forecasts a net profit of between 238 million and 247 million yuan for the second quarter of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 101% to 108% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company, after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, is expected to be between 215 million and 224 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 235% [1] Previous Year Performance - In the second quarter of 2024, the company achieved an operating income of 795.10 million yuan [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 118.62 million yuan [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 64.17 million yuan [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities was -178.46 million yuan [1] Reasons for Performance Changes - The significant growth in operating income for the second quarter of 2025 is attributed to the company's strategic focus on domestic substitution in semiconductor equipment, leveraging its advanced technology in thin film deposition equipment and three-dimensional integration bonding equipment [1] - The company’s advanced process verification machines have successfully passed customer certification and are entering large-scale production [2] - The gross profit margin for the second quarter is expected to improve significantly compared to the previous quarter, indicating a steady recovery [2] - The net cash flow from operating activities is expected to increase significantly year-on-year due to a substantial rise in advance payments and sales collections [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.1 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 51.7%, driven by increased demand for domestic semiconductor equipment from wafer manufacturers [4][5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 690 million yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 3.9% [5] - The gross margin for 2024 was 41.7%, a decrease of 9.3 percentage points compared to the previous year [5] - As of the end of 2024, the company had nearly 9.4 billion yuan in orders on hand, providing strong support for future performance [5] - In Q1 2025, the company continued to achieve high growth with a revenue of 710 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 50.2% [5] - The company is expanding its film deposition process coverage and developing 3D integration equipment, which is expected to benefit from the expansion of advanced processes and packaging [5][6] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 5.8 billion yuan, 7.7 billion yuan, and 9.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 940 million yuan, 1.49 billion yuan, and 1.96 billion yuan [5][7] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 47, 31, and 23 times respectively [5][7] - The company’s gross margin is expected to recover to 45.2% in 2025 and further improve in subsequent years [7] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 15.3 billion yuan in 2024 and 22.8 billion yuan in 2027 [9]

多种薄膜新工艺设备实现批量出货，关键材料持续突破。 公司拓展了芯片沟槽填充用Flowable CVD设 备，多台通过客户验证；基于新平台、新反应腔的PECVD Stack（ONO叠层）、ACHM等先进工艺设备 实现了大批量出货，通过客户验证；ALD SiCO、SiN、AlN等工艺设备实现大批量出货。目前公司推出 的PECVD、ALD、SACVD、HDPCVD及Flowable CVD薄膜设备可以支撑全部介质薄膜材料的约100多 种工艺应用。 点击招商研究小程序查看PDF报告原文 拓荆科技发布2024年报，24Q4利润快速释放，在手订单同比高增长。公司多种薄膜新工艺设备实现批 量出货，3D IC领域混合键合设备获得重复订单。 24Q4利润快速释放，在手订单同比高增长。 1）2024全年： 公司收入41亿元，同比+51.7%；归母净利 润6.88亿元，同比+3.86%；扣非净利润3.56亿元，同比+14.1%；截至2024年底，公司在手订单约94亿 元，同比+46.3%； 2）24Q4： 公司收入18.26亿元，同比+82%/环比+81%；毛利率39.3%，同 比-12.8pcts/环比持平，同比承压主要系新品或 ...