制冷剂配额约束下供给刚性，看好制冷剂景气周期 2026年三代制冷剂生产配额总量为797844吨，内用配额394082吨，相较于2025年，2026年三代制冷剂生 产配额总量增加5962吨，内用配额增加4502吨。2026年生产配额增量主要是R32增加1171吨，R134a增 加3242吨，R245fa增加2918吨；配额减少的有R143a减少1255吨、R227ea减少517吨以及R152a减少63 吨。 三代制冷剂价格延续涨势 根据百川盈孚，截止2025年12月12日，主流三代制冷剂及混配品种R134a/R125/R32/R410价格为 57500/45500/62500/54000元/吨，周涨幅+1.77%/+1.11%/0.00%/+0.93%，月涨幅 +6.48%/+1.11%/+0.00%/+0.93%，季涨幅+11.65%/+1.11%/+2.46%/+6.93%，年涨幅 +43.75%/+19.74%/+56.25%/+42.11%。 制冷需求延续增长，根据国家统计局，2025年1-10月国内空调产量累计值23034万台，同比+3.00%，出 口延续高基数，出口数量5243万台，同比-1.10% ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [5] Core Viewpoints - The production quota for third-generation refrigerants in 2026 is expected to remain relatively stable compared to 2025, with a total production quota of 797,844 tons, an increase of 5,962 tons from 2025. The internal use quota will increase by 4,502 tons [8] - The prices of third-generation refrigerants continue to rise, with significant annual increases observed, such as R134a increasing by 43.75% year-on-year [8] - The supply of refrigerants is expected to remain rigid due to quota constraints, while demand continues to grow, driven by increasing production of air conditioning units and automobiles [8] Summary by Sections Production Quota - The total production quota for third-generation refrigerants in 2026 is 797,844 tons, with internal use quota at 394,082 tons. The main increases are in R134a (3,242 tons) and R245fa (2,918 tons), while R143a, R227ea, and R152a see reductions [8] Price Trends - As of December 12, 2025, the prices for major third-generation refrigerants are as follows: R134a at 57,500 CNY/ton, R125 at 45,500 CNY/ton, R32 at 62,500 CNY/ton, and R410 at 54,000 CNY/ton, with notable monthly and annual growth rates [8] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Domestic air conditioning production from January to October 2025 reached 23,034 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.00%. The automotive sector also saw a production increase of 11.00% during the same period, indicating a robust demand for refrigerants [8]

国信证券近日发布2026年度制冷剂配额核发公示点评：具体配额上，2026年三代制冷剂生产配额总量为 79.78万吨，相较2025年初生产配额增长5963吨。R32、R125、R134a相比2025年初配额有所增加， R143a、R152a、R227ea相比2025年初有所减少。 以下为研究报告摘要： 事项： 2025年12月9日，生态环境部发布《关于2026年度消耗臭氧层物质和氢氟碳化物生产、使用和进口配额 核发情况的公示》，生态环境部受理了38家企业提交的2026年度二代制冷剂生产、使用配额申请，受理 了65家企业提交的2026年度三代制冷剂生产、进口配额申请，并对最终各企业生产、进口二代、三代制 冷剂配额进行了公示。其中二代制冷剂落实年度履约淘汰任务，R22生产配额削减了3005吨，R141b配 额清零；三代制冷剂生产和使用总量控制目标保持在基线值，维持了2025年的生产配额总量为18.53亿 吨CO2、内用生产配额总量为8.95亿吨CO2、进口配额总量为0.1亿吨CO2。具体配额上，2026年三代制 冷剂生产配额总量为79.78万吨，相较2025年初生产配额增长5963吨。R32、R125、R134a相 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The announcement of the 2026 refrigerant quota indicates a long-term constraint on the supply side of both second and third-generation refrigerants, suggesting a continuation of product prosperity in the refrigerant market [3][5] - For second-generation refrigerants, the production and usage in 2026 will be reduced by 71.5% and 76.1% from the baseline, respectively, with R22 production quota reduced by 3,005 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.02% [3][6] - The total production quota for third-generation refrigerants in 2026 is set at 797,800 tons, an increase of 5,963 tons compared to the beginning of 2025, with specific increases in R32, R125, and R134a quotas [2][3][7] - The report emphasizes that the tightening of refrigerant quotas is a long-term trend, and it is expected that the main third-generation refrigerants will maintain a tight supply-demand balance in 2026, with significant price upside potential [3][20] Summary by Sections Second-Generation Refrigerants - The production quota for second-generation refrigerants in 2026 is 151,400 tons, a decrease of 12,100 tons from 2025, with R22 production quota at 146,100 tons, down 3,005 tons year-on-year [6][3] - The internal usage quota for R22 is 77,900 tons, reflecting a year-on-year reduction of 3.60% [6] Third-Generation Refrigerants - The total production quota for third-generation refrigerants is 797,800 tons, with an internal usage quota of 394,100 tons, both showing increases from 2025 [7][3] - Specific increases in production quotas include R32 at 281,500 tons, R134a at 211,500 tons, and R125 at 167,600 tons, while R143a, R152a, and R227ea show slight decreases [7][3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading fluorochemical companies with complete industrial chains, advanced technology, and strong quota positions, such as Juhua Co., Ltd., Sanmei Co., Ltd., and Dongyue Group [20][21]

Core Insights - The report from Guosen Securities indicates a significant increase in long-term contract prices for mainstream refrigerants in Q4, with R32 rising to 60,200 CNY/ton, an increase of 9,600 CNY/ton or 18.97%, and R410A increasing to 53,200 CNY/ton, up by 3,600 CNY/ton or 7.26% [1][2] Price Trends - R32 shows strong performance with increasing foreign trade demand due to the release of domestic air conditioning companies' overseas capacity and the need for environmentally friendly refrigerants, leading to a tight market and higher pricing [3] - The external trade price for R32 has been raised to 62,000 CNY/ton, while domestic prices have increased to a range of 61,000-63,000 CNY/ton [3] - R134a prices have also risen, with the price range now at 53,000-54,000 CNY/ton due to ongoing quota consumption [3] Production and Export Trends - According to industry reports, air conditioning production for domestic sales is expected to grow in the first half of 2025, with strong performance anticipated due to seasonal demand and new policies [4] - However, there is a projected decline in production for household air conditioners in September and October 2025, influenced by high base effects from the previous year and reduced production expectations [4] - Export data shows a cumulative export of 47.81 million units from January to August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, although a downward trend has been observed since May [4] Monthly Production Adjustments - Production forecasts for October to December 2025 indicate a decrease in production, with October's production at 5.565 million units, down 11.5% year-on-year, but with adjustments showing an increase from previous predictions [5] - Export production for October is projected at 596,000 units, down 9.4% year-on-year, with improvements in the decline rate for November and December [5] Demand Drivers - The development of AI technology and the shift towards liquid cooling solutions in data centers are expected to drive demand for upstream fluorinated liquids and refrigerants, as traditional cooling methods reach their limits [6]

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a significant rise on August 15, with the chemical ETF (516020) increasing by 1.51% [1] - Key stocks in the sector included Lianhong Xinke, which surged over 7%, and Xinjubang and Jinfakeji, both rising over 6% [1] - The basic chemical sector attracted over 7 billion yuan in net inflows, ranking fifth among 30 major sectors [2][3] Group 2 - Recent retail prices for refrigerants like R32 and R227ea have been rising, with R32 expected to average 56,000 to 58,000 yuan per ton from August to October [3] - The chemical ETF (516020) is currently at a low valuation, with a price-to-book ratio of 2.07, indicating potential for long-term investment [3] - Analysts suggest that the "anti-involution" trend in the chemical industry may lead to the elimination of outdated production capacity, improving the competitive landscape and profitability [4] Group 3 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry index, covering various sub-sectors and focusing on large-cap stocks [4] - Investors can also consider chemical ETF linked funds for exposure to the chemical sector [4]

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a significant rise on August 15, with the chemical ETF (516020) increasing by 1.51% [1][2] - Key stocks in the sector included Lianhong Xinke, which surged over 7%, and Xinjubang and Jinfakeji, both rising over 6% [1] - The basic chemical sector attracted over 7 billion yuan in net inflows, ranking fifth among 30 major sectors [2][3] Group 2 - Recent retail prices for mainstream refrigerant R32 have been rising, with expected average prices of 56,000, 57,000, and 58,000 yuan per ton for August to October [3] - The chemical ETF (516020) has a price-to-book ratio of 2.07, indicating a low valuation compared to the past decade [3] - Analysts suggest that the "anti-involution" trend will be a key policy focus, potentially leading to the elimination of excess capacity in the chemical industry [4] Group 3 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry index, covering various sub-sectors and focusing on large-cap stocks [4] - The ETF's portfolio includes significant positions in leading companies like Wanhua Chemical and Yilong Co., allowing investors to capitalize on strong market leaders [4] - Investors can also access the chemical sector through the chemical ETF linked funds (A class 012537/C class 012538) [4]

Group 1 - Dongyue Group's stock price increased by 2.66%, currently at HKD 10.81, with a trading volume of HKD 51.95 million [1] - The company announced a profit warning, expecting a significant year-on-year increase of approximately 150% in net profit attributable to shareholders for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025 [1] - The primary reason for this expected growth is attributed to the substantial increase in prices of certain refrigerant products compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - Guosen Securities reported that mainstream refrigerant product prices are expected to show stable growth, with average prices for R32 projected at 56,000, 57,000, and 58,000 yuan for August to October, respectively [1] - For R134a, the average prices are expected to be 50,000, 51,000, and 52,000 yuan during the same period [1] - The price of R227ea has risen to 73,000 yuan per ton due to impacts from insufficient production and inventory replenishment in fire protection [1] Group 3 - August is typically a low season for air conditioning manufacturers, leading to a decrease in refrigerant demand; however, with the arrival of the "golden September and silver October," an increase in demand is anticipated as the new cooling season begins [1] - The limited annual supply of refrigerants is expected to support a strong pricing sentiment, with R32 prices likely to remain high in the coming three months [1] - As the annual quota for R134a continues to be consumed, the pricing sentiment is expected to strengthen, with high-price offers being realized and an anticipated increase in export demand from September to October [1]

Group 1 - Dongyue Group (00189) shares increased by over 3%, currently up 2.66% at HKD 10.81, with a trading volume of HKD 51.95 million [1] - The company recently announced a positive earnings forecast, expecting a significant year-on-year net profit increase of approximately 150% for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025 [1] - The primary reason for this expected growth is attributed to a substantial rise in the prices of certain refrigerant products compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - According to Guosen Securities, mainstream refrigerant product prices are expected to show stable growth, with average prices for R32 in August to October projected at 56,000, 57,000, and 58,000 CNY respectively, and R134a at 50,000, 51,000, and 52,000 CNY [1] - The price of R227ea has increased to 73,000 CNY/ton due to impacts from fire-fighting stockpiling and insufficient production [1] - August is typically a low season for air conditioning production, leading to reduced refrigerant demand; however, with the arrival of the peak season in September and October, an increase in refrigerant demand is anticipated [1]

Group 1 - Dongyue Group (00189) shares rose over 3%, currently up 2.66% at HKD 10.81, with a trading volume of HKD 51.95 million [1] - The company recently announced a profit warning, expecting a significant year-on-year increase of approximately 150% in net profit attributable to shareholders for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025 [1] - The board attributes this growth primarily to a substantial increase in the prices of certain refrigerant products compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - Guosen Securities noted that mainstream refrigerant product prices are expected to stabilize and grow, with average prices for R32 in August to October projected at 56,000, 57,000, and 58,000 CNY respectively; R134a prices are expected to be 50,000, 51,000, and 52,000 CNY [1] - R227ea prices have risen to 73,000 CNY/ton due to impacts from fire-fighting material stockpiling and insufficient production [1] - August is typically a low season for air conditioning production, leading to reduced refrigerant demand; however, with the arrival of the peak season in September and October, along with the start of a new cooling year, an increase in refrigerant demand is anticipated [1] Group 3 - The limited supply situation is expected to support price stability, with a strong price-holding sentiment evident in the market [1] - Refrigerant R32 prices are likely to continue to run at high levels in the next three months [1] - As the annual quota for R134a continues to be consumed, the price-holding sentiment is expected to strengthen, with high-price offers being realized and an anticipated increase in export demand from September to October [1]