——当前经济与政策思考 证券研究报告/宏观专题报告 2026 年 02 月 25 日 | 报告摘要 | 分析师：杨畅 | 作为宏观统计指标，顺差代表了包括商品与服务在内，出口金额与进口金额的差额。 |  | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0740519090004 | 以日本为例，考虑到服务贸易自有统计数据以来长期逆差，侧重将货物贸易顺差作为 | 观察对象。 | Email：yangchang@zts.com.cn | | | | 分析师：夏知非 | 而进入上世纪 | 年代后，日本贸易顺差迅速扩大，既体现出在全球的比较优势，但 |  | 80 | 执业证书编号：S0740523110007 | | 也引发了一定的矛盾冲突。为此，日本开始针对高额顺差进行调整： | Email：xiazf01@zts.com.cn | | | | | | 在出口端，"以国际协调为目标"，尝试实现协调共存。在被迫对美让步的同时，围绕 | 非美市场积极开展动作，推进出口市场的多元化；推动中低端环节向外转移，构建起 | | | | | | 相关报告 | 以本 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights Toyota's record global sales growth, achieving a total of 11.32 million vehicles sold, surpassing Volkswagen Group's 8.98 million vehicles, marking Toyota as the world's top automaker for six consecutive years [1][5] - In the United States, sales increased by 8% to 2.52 million vehicles, driven by strong demand for models like Camry and Sienna, with hybrid vehicle sales reaching approximately 1.11 million, a 20% increase [1][2] - In China, sales saw a slight increase to 1.78 million vehicles, supported by promotional policies linked to government subsidies, although growth is expected to slow down as subsidy strength diminishes [1][2] Group 2 - The sales of hybrid and electric vehicles grew by 10% to 4.99 million units, accounting for 47% of total sales, with hybrid sales increasing by 7% to 4.43 million units and pure electric vehicle sales rising by 42% to 199,137 units [2] - The luxury brand Lexus experienced a 4% sales increase, reaching a record high of 882,231 vehicles, with strong performance from SUV models like RX and NX in North America [5] - Toyota's global production is projected to grow by 5% to 9.96 million units, recovering from production halts due to regulatory issues and recalls in Japan and the United States [5][6] Group 3 - Exports from Japan to overseas markets increased by 7% to 2.03 million vehicles, with exports to the United States rising by 14% to 615,204 vehicles, contributing to overall growth [6] - The U.S. government imposed a 25% tariff on Japanese cars in April 2025, which was later reduced to 15% in September, leading to an estimated tariff cost of 1.45 trillion yen for Toyota in the fiscal year ending March 2026 [6]

Group 1 - Toyota's sales in the U.S. increased by 8%, reaching 2,518,071 units, driven by strong sales of models like the Camry and Sienna [2] - Global sales for Toyota reached a record high of 11,322,575 units, growing by 5% year-over-year, surpassing Volkswagen Group's 8.98 million units [2] - In China, sales slightly increased to 1,784,396 units, supported by promotional policies linked to government subsidies, although growth is slowing due to reduced policy strength [2] Group 2 - Sales of hybrid and electric vehicles grew by 10%, totaling 4,994,894 units, accounting for 47% of total sales [4] - Hybrid vehicle sales increased by 7% to 4,433,503 units, while pure electric vehicle sales surged by 42% to 199,137 units [4] Group 3 - Lexus, Toyota's luxury brand, saw a 4% increase in sales, reaching a record high of 882,231 units, with strong performance from SUV models like the RX and NX in North America [7] - Toyota's global production is projected to grow by 5% to 9,959,904 units, recovering from production halts due to certification violations and recalls [7] - Exports from Japan increased by 7% to 2,031,460 units, with a 14% rise in exports to the U.S. [7]

Core Viewpoint - Toyota has initiated a large-scale recall due to improper settings in the multimedia screen system control program, affecting multiple vehicle models and raising safety concerns [1][2]. Group 1: Recall Details - The recall plan includes 10,922 units of the RAV4 produced between December 5, 2025, and January 13, 2026, by FAW Toyota [1]. - GAC Toyota will recall 5,056 units of the Wildlander produced between December 11, 2025, and January 12, 2026 [1]. - The vehicles may experience a black screen upon startup, which could hinder the defrosting and defogging functions, potentially affecting driving visibility [1]. Group 2: Previous Recalls - This is Toyota's second large-scale recall in just over a month, with nearly 100,000 vehicles recalled in December due to issues with the panoramic monitoring system [2][5]. - The previous recall involved 93,882 vehicles, where the panoramic image display could malfunction, impacting the driver's judgment of the surrounding environment [5]. Group 3: Market Performance - According to data released by Toyota China, the company expects to sell over 1.78 million vehicles in the Chinese market in 2025, showing a slight increase from 1.776 million in 2024 [6]. - Toyota is the only foreign multinational automotive group in China to achieve sales growth, while other Japanese automakers like Nissan and Honda have reported declines in sales [6].

Core Viewpoint - Japanese automakers are experiencing a decline in sales in China, but the expansion of electric vehicle (EV) product lines is stabilizing the downward trend for some companies, particularly Toyota, which is showing signs of recovery in new car sales [4][5]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Toyota's new car sales in China for 2025 are projected to be 1,780,400 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 0.2%. The luxury brand Lexus is expected to sell 182,000 units, up 0.7% year-on-year [4]. - Nissan's sales are forecasted at 653,024 units, down 6% year-on-year, marking the seventh consecutive year of decline, although the decrease is less severe than the 12% drop in 2024 [4]. - Honda's sales are expected to be 645,345 units, reflecting a 24% year-on-year decline, continuing a five-year downward trend [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China is robust, with local giants like BYD continuing to see sales growth. Japanese automakers, which have primarily focused on fuel vehicles, are lagging in the NEV sector [4]. - The market share of Chinese brands in the passenger car segment has increased from 38% in 2020 to 70% in the first 11 months of 2025, while Japanese brands' share has decreased from 23% to 10% [4]. Group 3: Product Line Expansion - Starting in 2025, three Japanese automakers are significantly expanding their NEV product lines, with signs of sales recovery emerging. Toyota plans to launch the pure electric SUV "bZ3X" through its local joint venture GAC Toyota in March 2025 [5]. - Toyota's EV sales are expected to surge by 86% year-on-year, reaching 109,300 units in 2025, with the sedan "bZ7" set to launch in spring 2026 [5].

Group 1 - Toyota's sales in the U.S. market for large SUVs, particularly the "Grand Highlander," have shown a significant increase, with a year-on-year growth of 8% [2][4] - Among six Japanese automakers, Toyota, Honda, and Nissan achieved positive growth in 2025, with Toyota's sales reaching 2,518,071 units, marking a substantial lead over competitors [4] - The overall sales of electric vehicles (EVs), including hybrid vehicles (HV), increased by 17.6%, accounting for 47% of Toyota's total sales [4] Group 2 - The sales rebound of the "Grand Highlander" and "TX" models, which had previously been affected by recalls, contributed to Toyota's growth [4] - Lexus, Toyota's luxury brand, also saw a sales increase of 7.1%, reaching a record high of 370,260 units, driven by models like the TX [4] - In contrast, other Japanese automakers faced challenges in the U.S. market, with Honda's sales only increasing by 0.5% to 1,430,577 units due to semiconductor supply shortages impacting production [5]

Group 1 - Toyota has announced a recall of over 90,000 vehicles in China due to software defects and OTA upgrade errors affecting popular models like Lexus and bZ4X [1][2] - The recall includes 83,319 vehicles due to issues with the panoramic monitoring system that may affect the driver's judgment of the vehicle's surroundings [2] - A similar software issue has led to a recall of 99,178 vehicles in Canada, indicating a broader problem with the software across multiple markets [2] Group 2 - Toyota's financial report for the first half of the 2025 fiscal year shows a significant decline in operating profit by 18.7% to approximately 2.005 trillion yen, with the automotive segment's profit dropping by 28.2% [3] - The introduction of a 15% tariff on imported vehicles in the U.S. has been identified as a major factor contributing to the decline in profits [3] - Despite the pressure on operating profit, net profit increased by 62% to 932 billion yen, driven by non-operating factors such as investment income [3] Group 3 - Toyota's electric vehicle strategy shows a disparity, with hybrid models being the mainstay of performance while pure electric vehicle sales remain slow [3] - In the first half of the 2026 fiscal year, hybrid vehicle sales reached 2.271 million units, while plug-in hybrids and battery electric vehicles accounted for only 1.6% and 1.4% of total sales, respectively [3] - Despite short-term challenges, Toyota has raised its forecasts for the 2026 fiscal year, expecting operating revenue of 49 trillion yen and net profit of 2.93 trillion yen [4]

Core Insights - The global automotive industry is facing significant challenges due to tariff impacts, transformation pains, and market differentiation, leading to a reshuffling of performance rankings among major multinational car manufacturers [1] Toyota - Net profit reached $6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 62% [2][6] - Operating profit decreased by 18.6% to 2 trillion yen due to a 25% tariff on U.S. imports, with a significant cost increase of 900 billion yen [2][3] - Retail sales in China for Toyota and Lexus brands grew by 1.8% to 464,000 units [3] Ford - Net profit was $2.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 174% [5][6] - Revenue for the third quarter reached $50.5 billion, a historical high, with a 9.3% year-on-year growth [7] - Ford's adjusted EBIT for the year is now expected to be between $6 billion and $6.5 billion, down from previous estimates [7][8] BMW - Net profit was $2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 257% [9][6] - Revenue for the third quarter was €32.314 billion, a slight decrease of 0.3% [9] - The company faced a 1.8 percentage point reduction in profit margins due to tariffs [10] Hyundai - Net profit was $1.7 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20.5% [12][6] - Revenue reached 46.7 trillion won, an 8.8% year-on-year increase [13] - The company plans to launch a new hybrid SUV in the U.S. and increase production capacity [14] Mercedes-Benz - Net profit was $1.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 31% [16][6] - Revenue fell by 7% to €32.147 billion [17] - The company is implementing a restructuring plan aimed at saving €5 billion by 2027 [17] General Motors - Net profit was $1.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 57% [19][6] - Revenue for the third quarter was $48.59 billion, a slight decline of 0.34% [19] - The company has raised its full-year earnings forecast based on strong performance in both the U.S. and Chinese markets [19] Honda - Net profit was $780 million, a year-on-year increase of 16.5% [20][6] - Operating profit dropped by 41% to 438.1 billion yen [21] - The company has revised its profit expectations downward for the fiscal year [21] Nissan - Net loss was $700 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1042% [22][6] - Revenue for the first half of the fiscal year was 55.787 trillion yen, a 6.8% decline [23] - The company is undergoing a restructuring plan to cut costs and improve profitability [23][24] Volkswagen Group - Net loss was $1.2 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 169% [25][6] - Revenue for the third quarter was €80.3 billion, a 2.3% increase [25] - The group is facing significant challenges due to tariffs and restructuring costs [27] Stellantis - Net revenue for the third quarter was €37.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13% [28] - The company plans to invest $13 billion in the U.S. over the next four years [28] - Stellantis is gradually recovering under new leadership, focusing resources on the North American market [29]

Core Viewpoint - Toyota Motor Corporation (TM.US) reported an increase in October sales, driven by strong demand in the U.S. market, which offset declines in China and Japan [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Global sales for the Toyota group, including Daihatsu and Hino, rose by 3% year-on-year, reaching 1 million units, marking a record high for October [1] - Sales of Toyota and Lexus brands in the U.S. increased by 12%, while sales in China decreased by 6.6% and in Japan by 4.2% [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite facing tariff pressures from U.S. President Trump's import duties on vehicles and parts, Toyota is increasingly relying on the North American market [1] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between China and Japan, may reshape Toyota's global sales landscape [1] Group 3: Financial Outlook - Toyota raised its full-year operating profit forecast to 3.4 trillion yen, despite estimating a loss of 1.4 trillion yen due to a 15% tariff policy [1] - This adjustment follows a downward revision of expectations in August [1] Group 4: Electric Vehicle Sales - Global sales of Toyota's pure electric vehicles surged by 74% year-on-year, reaching 18,322 units [1]

Group 1 - Toyota's global sales from April to September increased by 5% year-on-year, reaching 5,267,216 units, marking a historical high for the same period [2] - In the U.S. market, sales grew by 11% to 1,295,606 units, driven by strong demand for hybrid vehicles despite high tariffs [2][4] - In China, sales rose by 6% to 914,342 units, supported by strong sales of the new EV "bZ3X" and hybrid vehicles, along with promotional measures linked to government subsidies [2][5] Group 2 - For the fiscal year 2025, Toyota expects to achieve a record sales target of 10.4 million units, with overseas sales increasing by 6% to 4,553,249 units [4] - The number of vehicles exported from Japan to the U.S. increased by 21% to 304,151 units, despite the impact of tariffs [5] - Global production from April to September grew by 6% to 4,985,122 units, with production in Japan increasing by 3% and in the U.S. by 14% [5]