【逻辑】 昨日期货盘面震荡，主力10合约收1358点，上涨3.74%%。昨日SCFIS欧线大幅下跌，或对市场多头情 绪产生打压。现货端虽CMA平开10月份报价，但是整体现货价格仍在下行，ONE今日继续大幅下调报 价，现货报价的下行将对盘面产生一定压力。 【操作建议】 预计偏弱震荡，10合约空单继续持有。 【现货报价】 截至8月26日最新报价；马士基：1290-1599美元/TEU，2160-2578美元/TEU；CMA 1360-1910美 元/TEU，2320-2920美元/TEU；MSC 1550-1556 美元/TEU，2590-2602 美元/TEU；ONE 1504-1804美 元/TEU，2343美元/TEU；EMC 1605-1805美元/TEU，2410-2760美元/TEU。报价数据近期缓慢下跌。 【集运指数】 截至8月25日，SCFIS欧线指数报1990.2点，环比下跌8.71%，美西线指数环比下跌5.87% 至1041.38点。 截至8月22日，SCFI综合指数报1415.36点，较上期跌3%；上海-欧洲运价下跌8%至1668美元/TEU；上 海-美西运价1644美元/FEU，较上周跌7 ...

集运指数（欧线）期货主力涨超3%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 目前各公司逐步公布9月初报价，已公布报价中枢约$2200/FEU，尤其是通常偏高的OA联盟也已降至 $2200-2300/FEU，加剧市场压力。尽管航司逐步放宽长协订舱限制，且9月上旬供应压力较8月底略有缓 解，跌势或阶段性放缓，但难改整体下行趋势。考虑到9月下旬运力仍维持高位，叠加月末黄金周前揽 收假期滚存货的压力，运价后续仍可能承压下行，继续施压盘面走势。节奏方面，目前各合约主要锚定 10合约估值，而10合约在逐渐贴近成本线后，预计将获得一定成本支撑，因此后续市场大概率延续跟随 现货震荡下行的走势。 8月25日盘中，集运指数（欧线）期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至1379.4点。截止发稿， 集运指数（欧线）主力合约报1365.5点，涨幅3.13%。 华联期货：现货运价暂未触底，EC盘面易跌难涨 国投安信期货 后续集运市场大概率延续震荡下行走势 华联期货 现货运价暂未触底，EC盘面易跌难涨 国投安信期货：后续集运市场大概率延续震荡下行走势 国内现货指数方面，最新SCFI综合指数环比下跌3.07%，跌幅有所收窄， ...

Pricing Information - As of July 28, 2023, the spot rates for major shipping lines are as follows: Maersk: $1769-$2123/TEU, $2958-$3466/TEU; CMA: $1935-$2285/TEU, $3445-$4145/TEU; MSC: $2060-$2163/TEU, $3440-$3646/TEU; ONE: $2324/TEU, $3143/TEU; EMC: $2455/TEU, $3760/TEU [1] Shipping Index - As of July 28, 2023, the SCFIS European line index is reported at 2316.56 points, a decrease of 3.5% week-on-week. The US West Coast index fell by 46.98% to 1284.01 points. The SCFI composite index as of July 25, 2023, is at 1592.59 points, down 3.3%. The Shanghai-Europe freight rate increased by 0.53% to $2090/TEU, while the Shanghai-US West Coast rate is $2067/FEU, down 3.5% from the previous week. The Shanghai-US East Coast rate is $3378/FEU, down 6.48% from the previous week [2] Market Fundamentals - As of July 28, 2023, the global container shipping capacity exceeds 32.7 million TEU, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9%. In terms of demand, the Eurozone's June composite PMI is at 50.2, with manufacturing PMI at 49.4 and services PMI at 50.0. The US June manufacturing PMI is at 49, with a new orders index of 46.4. The OECD leading index for the G7 group recorded 100.40 in June [3] Market Logic - The futures market experienced fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 1502.8 points, down 1.62%, and the August contract at 2183.2, down 1.33%. Major shipping companies have set August prices, reducing uncertainty, and a fluctuating market is expected. Short-term spot prices are not anticipated to have significant volatility, while a gradual decline is expected in the medium to long term due to current prices being at a seasonal peak [4]

Pricing Information - As of June 25, the spot rates for Maersk are between $1,767 and $1,777 per TEU, and $2,950 to $2,976 per TEU; CMA rates range from $2,035 to $2,385 per TEU, and $3,645 to $4,345 per TEU; MSC rates are $1,940 to $2,180 per TEU, and $3,640 per TEU; ONE rates are between $2,604 and $3,094 per TEU, and $3,343 to $4,043 per TEU; EMC rates range from $2,100 to $2,655 per TEU, and $3,100 to $4,060 per TEU [1] Shipping Index - As of June 23, the SCFIS European line index is reported at 1,937.14 points, a 14% increase week-on-week, while the West Coast of the US index decreased by 28% to 2,083.46 points; as of June 27, the SCFI composite index is at 1,861.51 points, down 0.4% from the previous period; Shanghai to Europe freight rates increased by 10% to $2,030 per TEU; Shanghai to West Coast freight rates are $2,578 per FEU, down 7% from the previous week; Shanghai to East Coast freight rates are $4,717 per FEU, down 12% from the previous week [2] Market Fundamentals - As of June 24, the global container shipping capacity stands at 32.57 million TEU, an 8.2% increase year-on-year; in terms of demand, the Eurozone's May composite PMI is at 50.2, with manufacturing PMI at 49.4 and services PMI at 49.7; the US May manufacturing PMI is at 48.5, with the new orders index at 47.6; the OECD leading index for the G7 group recorded 100.32 in May [3] Market Logic - The futures market saw a decline yesterday, with the main August contract closing at 1,761 points, down 2.42%; currently, there is a reduction in the price divergence for July, with large box quotes ranging from $3,635 to $4,645 per TEU, which is slightly higher than the first half of the year; a significant price drop in August is considered unlikely, and airlines may initially set higher August quotes before adjusting based on actual transaction conditions, necessitating close monitoring of price trends [4] Operational Recommendations - The market is advised to adopt a cautious wait-and-see approach, with expectations for the main index to fluctuate between 1,700 and 1,800 points [5]

Core Viewpoint - The shipping index (European line) futures experienced a significant decline, with the main contract dropping over 6%, indicating a bearish trend in the market [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 24, the shipping index (European line) futures fell to a low of 1746.4 points, closing at 1784.1 points, reflecting a decline of 6.36% [1]. - The latest SCFIS European line index recorded 1937.14 points, showing a slight increase of 14.1 points from the previous period [2][3]. Group 2: Price Adjustments - Shipping companies are showing signs of price adjustments, with Hapag-Lloyd reducing July mid-month rates from $2635/$4335 to $2435/$3835, representing decreases of 8% and 12% for small and large containers, respectively [2]. - CMA CGM has also adjusted its rates downwards, indicating that booking conditions are not meeting expectations, with a notable price reduction of $15 and $45 for different container types [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trends - The market sentiment remains pessimistic, with expectations of continued downward pressure on the shipping index due to oversupply and weak demand [2][3]. - The geopolitical situation has shown signs of easing, with reports of a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, which may reduce the impact on the shipping market [2][3]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The EC2508 contract is expected to face strong resistance above the 2000-point mark, with a bearish trend likely to persist in the short term [3]. - Key support levels for EC2508 are identified around 1800 points, with expectations for the EC2506 delivery price to be below 1850 points [3].

Market Insights - The recent macroeconomic and high-frequency data indicate a mixed performance, with the economic activity index showing fluctuations after a recovery in May, remaining above "1" but below the levels of 2020-2024 [1][10] - The real estate market has shown a lackluster performance, with transaction volumes in major cities underperforming compared to the same period in previous years [1][13] - The automotive sector is experiencing a steady recovery, benefiting from new policies, with retail and wholesale sales showing significant year-on-year increases of 23% and 38% respectively [1][16] Domestic Economic Data - In May, industrial production increased by 5.8% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, while fixed asset investment growth slowed to 3.7% [2][33] - The retail sales of consumer goods rose by 6.4% year-on-year, surpassing the forecast of 4.85% [2][41] - Fiscal revenue showed a slight decline, with tax revenue remaining positive but non-tax revenue turning negative, indicating a weakening in land transactions [2][58] International Economic Context - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with projections indicating potential rate cuts in 2025, reflecting expectations of slower economic growth and rising unemployment [3][41] Industry Allocation Recommendations - Investment strategies should focus on three main areas: advancements in AI technology, recovery in consumer stocks, and the resurgence of undervalued dividend stocks [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the AI industry's progress, as it significantly influences the performance of undervalued dividend stocks [4]

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical 1 - year and all - time quantiles of stock index futures spreads, including IF, IH, IC, IM, and cross - variety ratios [1] - **Summary by Catalog**: - **Spot - Futures Spread**: IF's is - 30.20, down 1.29; IH's is - 16.68, down 1.66; IC's is - 74.15, up 0.72; IM's is - 93.46, up 10.33 [1] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Different delivery month spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented, with various changes and quantiles [1] - **Cross - Variety Ratio**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., are given, along with their changes and quantiles [1] Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Displays the latest values, changes from the previous day, and quantiles since listing of treasury bond futures spreads, including TS, TF, T, TL, and cross - variety spreads [4] - **Summary by Catalog**: - **Basis**: IRR and basis values for TS, TF, T, and TL are presented [4] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Spreads between different delivery months for TS, TF, T, and TL are shown, with corresponding changes and quantiles [4] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: Spreads between different treasury bond futures varieties are given, along with their changes and quantiles [4] Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Shows domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals [8] - **Summary by Catalog**: - **Domestic and Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: AU2508 contract is down 0.73%, AG2508 contract is down 0.76%; COMEX gold is down 1.73%, COMEX silver is down 0.76% [8] - **Spot Prices**: London gold, London silver, Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D, and silver T + D all show declines [8] - **Basis**: Basis values and their changes for gold and silver are presented, along with historical 1 - year quantiles [8] - **Ratio**: Ratios of COMEX gold/silver, SHFE gold/silver are given, with their changes and percentage changes [8] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields decline, while the US dollar index rises [8] - **Inventory and Positions**: Some inventories change slightly, and ETF positions remain unchanged [8] Group 4: Container Shipping Index - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Provides settlement price indices, Shanghai export container freight rates, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry [12] - **Summary by Catalog**: - **Settlement Price Index**: SCFIS (European route) is down 1.44%, SCFIS (US West route) is up 18.90% [12] - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Rate**: SCFI composite index, SCFI (Europe), SCFI (US West), and SCFI (US East) all show increases [12] - **Futures Price and Basis**: Futures prices of different contracts change, and the basis of the main contract decreases by 7.16% [12] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply is stable, Shanghai port's on - time rate and berthing situation decline, and some overseas economic indicators change [12] Group 5: Domestic Data/Information - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Lists domestic economic indicators and financial events in different sectors, including black and non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, and special commodities [17] - **Summary by Catalog**: - **Black and Non - ferrous Metals**: Steel Union's weekly survey of 523 mine production and sales for coking coal and coke [17] - **Energy and Chemicals**: China's port commercial crude oil inventory data from Longzhong Information [17] - **Special Commodities**: Glass sales rate and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory [17] Group 6: Capital Flow and Key Position Changes - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The report title mentions capital flow and key position changes, but specific content is incomplete and unavailable for detailed summary [19]

Group 1: Shipping Freight Index - The shipping index includes SCFI comprehensive index, SCFIS European route, and container index (European route) futures, which reflect the pricing of freight futures and the impact of tariffs [1][9][10] - The SCFI comprehensive index has shown a rebound since May 9, increasing by 9% compared to the end of March, influenced by export rush and transshipment [10][13] - The China Container Freight Index (CCFI) has fluctuated this year, hitting a low on April 3 and then rebounding, with the CCFI comprehensive index increasing by 0.2% from its low as of May 16 [13][15] Group 2: Port Cargo Throughput - Domestic port cargo throughput has shown resilience, with container throughput reaching a record high on April 27, 2023, despite a brief decline earlier in the month [2][20][23] - The Port of Los Angeles, the busiest port in the U.S., saw its import container throughput drop to the lowest level since June 2024 by May 10, indicating negative impacts from tariffs on U.S. imports and exports [2][22][24] Group 3: Domestic Production Activity - The high-frequency economic activity index from the First Financial Research Institute has been declining since the end of March but remains above 1, indicating stronger economic activity compared to the previous year [3][27][29] - The manufacturing PMI new export orders index fell from 49% to 44.7%, while the EPMI production index dropped from 67.7% in March to 51.6% [29][30] Group 4: Trade Outlook - South Korea's Export Situation - South Korea's export data showed stronger-than-seasonal growth in early April, with fluctuations in mid-April likely related to trade negotiations with the U.S. [4][30][32] - By May, South Korea's exports were weaker than seasonal expectations, indicating ongoing volatility ahead of the conclusion of U.S.-Korea trade talks [4][32][34]