Pricing Information - As of August 26, the latest spot quotes for shipping are as follows: Maersk: $1290-$1599/TEU, $2160-$2578/TEU; CMA: $1360-$1910/TEU, $2320-$2920/TEU; MSC: $1550-$1556/TEU, $2590-$2602/TEU; ONE: $1504-$1804/TEU, $2343/TEU; EMC: $1605-$1805/TEU, $2410-$2760/TEU. The pricing data has shown a gradual decline recently [1]. Shipping Index - As of August 25, the SCFIS European line index reported 1990.2 points, a week-on-week decrease of 8.71%. The US West Coast index fell by 5.87% to 1041.38 points. The SCFI composite index as of August 22 was 1415.36 points, down 3% from the previous period. The Shanghai-Europe freight rate decreased by 8% to $1668/TEU, while the Shanghai-US West Coast rate was $1644/FEU, down 7% from the previous week. The Shanghai-US East Coast rate was $2613/FEU, down 4% from the previous week [2]. Market Fundamentals - As of August 25, the global container shipping capacity exceeded 32.9 million TEU, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.9%. In terms of demand, the Eurozone's July composite PMI was 50.9, with a manufacturing PMI of 49.8 and a services PMI of 51.0. The US July manufacturing PMI index was 48, with a new orders index of 47.1. The OECD leading index for the G7 group recorded 100.40 in June [3]. Market Logic - The futures market experienced fluctuations yesterday, with the main contract closing at 1358 points, an increase of 3.74%. The significant drop in the SCFIS European line may have dampened market bullish sentiment. Although CMA opened with October quotes, the overall spot prices continue to decline, and ONE has further reduced its quotes today. The downward trend in spot pricing is expected to exert pressure on the futures market [4].

Core Viewpoint - The European shipping index futures experienced a significant increase, reaching a peak of 1379.4 points, with a closing value of 1365.5 points, reflecting a rise of 3.13% [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Guotou Anxin Futures predicts that the shipping market is likely to continue a downward trend, with September initial quotes averaging around $2200/FEU, indicating increased market pressure [2] - Hualian Futures states that the current spot freight rates have not yet bottomed out, and the EC futures market is more likely to decline than to rise [2] Group 2: Price Trends and Analysis - The latest SCFI composite index has decreased by 3.07%, with the NCFI European line dropping by 8.83%, indicating a significant decline in freight rates, particularly for East and West US routes [2] - The main EC2510 contract continues its downward trend, with expectations of further declines in August and September, while the pressure point is noted at 1400 [2] - The EC2512 contract is seen as a preferred option due to potential support from year-end demand, despite limited declines, with a short-term trading range suggested between 1600 and 1800 points [2]

Pricing Information - As of August 4, the spot prices for container shipping are as follows: Maersk: $1705-$1846/TEU, $2850-$3102/TEU; CMA: $1935-$2635/TEU, $3445-$4345/TEU; MSC: $2000-$2163/TEU, $3340-$3646/TEU; ONE: $2194/TEU, $2943/TEU; EMC: $2355-$2455/TEU, $3560-$3760/TEU [1] Shipping Index - As of August 4, the SCFIS European line index is reported at 2297.86 points, a decrease of 0.81% month-on-month; the US West Coast index decreased by 11.99% to 1130.12 points. The SCFI composite index as of August 1 is 1550.74 points, down 2.63%. The Shanghai-Europe freight rate decreased by 1.87% to $2051/TEU; Shanghai-US West freight rate is $2021/FEU, down 2.23% from last week; Shanghai-US East freight rate is $3126/FEU, down 7.46% from last week [2] Market Fundamentals - As of August 4, the global container shipping capacity exceeds 32.7 million TEU, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.9%. In terms of demand, the Eurozone's June composite PMI is 50.2, with manufacturing PMI at 49.4 and services PMI at 50.0; the US June manufacturing PMI is 49, with new orders index at 46.4. The OECD leading index for the G7 group recorded 100.40 in June [3] Market Logic - The futures market experienced fluctuations with the main contract closing at 1421.8 points, down 0.72%; the August contract closed at 2122.3, up 0.38%. The market is currently in a phase of slow decline in spot prices, lacking strong driving forces in the fundamentals. The short-term outlook for the main contract is expected to show a weak oscillating pattern [4]

Pricing Information - As of July 28, 2023, the spot rates for major shipping lines are as follows: Maersk: $1769-$2123/TEU, $2958-$3466/TEU; CMA: $1935-$2285/TEU, $3445-$4145/TEU; MSC: $2060-$2163/TEU, $3440-$3646/TEU; ONE: $2324/TEU, $3143/TEU; EMC: $2455/TEU, $3760/TEU [1] Shipping Index - As of July 28, 2023, the SCFIS European line index is reported at 2316.56 points, a decrease of 3.5% week-on-week. The US West Coast index fell by 46.98% to 1284.01 points. The SCFI composite index as of July 25, 2023, is at 1592.59 points, down 3.3%. The Shanghai-Europe freight rate increased by 0.53% to $2090/TEU, while the Shanghai-US West Coast rate is $2067/FEU, down 3.5% from the previous week. The Shanghai-US East Coast rate is $3378/FEU, down 6.48% from the previous week [2] Market Fundamentals - As of July 28, 2023, the global container shipping capacity exceeds 32.7 million TEU, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9%. In terms of demand, the Eurozone's June composite PMI is at 50.2, with manufacturing PMI at 49.4 and services PMI at 50.0. The US June manufacturing PMI is at 49, with a new orders index of 46.4. The OECD leading index for the G7 group recorded 100.40 in June [3] Market Logic - The futures market experienced fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 1502.8 points, down 1.62%, and the August contract at 2183.2, down 1.33%. Major shipping companies have set August prices, reducing uncertainty, and a fluctuating market is expected. Short-term spot prices are not anticipated to have significant volatility, while a gradual decline is expected in the medium to long term due to current prices being at a seasonal peak [4]

Pricing Information - As of June 25, the spot rates for Maersk are between $1,767 and $1,777 per TEU, and $2,950 to $2,976 per TEU; CMA rates range from $2,035 to $2,385 per TEU, and $3,645 to $4,345 per TEU; MSC rates are $1,940 to $2,180 per TEU, and $3,640 per TEU; ONE rates are between $2,604 and $3,094 per TEU, and $3,343 to $4,043 per TEU; EMC rates range from $2,100 to $2,655 per TEU, and $3,100 to $4,060 per TEU [1] Shipping Index - As of June 23, the SCFIS European line index is reported at 1,937.14 points, a 14% increase week-on-week, while the West Coast of the US index decreased by 28% to 2,083.46 points; as of June 27, the SCFI composite index is at 1,861.51 points, down 0.4% from the previous period; Shanghai to Europe freight rates increased by 10% to $2,030 per TEU; Shanghai to West Coast freight rates are $2,578 per FEU, down 7% from the previous week; Shanghai to East Coast freight rates are $4,717 per FEU, down 12% from the previous week [2] Market Fundamentals - As of June 24, the global container shipping capacity stands at 32.57 million TEU, an 8.2% increase year-on-year; in terms of demand, the Eurozone's May composite PMI is at 50.2, with manufacturing PMI at 49.4 and services PMI at 49.7; the US May manufacturing PMI is at 48.5, with the new orders index at 47.6; the OECD leading index for the G7 group recorded 100.32 in May [3] Market Logic - The futures market saw a decline yesterday, with the main August contract closing at 1,761 points, down 2.42%; currently, there is a reduction in the price divergence for July, with large box quotes ranging from $3,635 to $4,645 per TEU, which is slightly higher than the first half of the year; a significant price drop in August is considered unlikely, and airlines may initially set higher August quotes before adjusting based on actual transaction conditions, necessitating close monitoring of price trends [4] Operational Recommendations - The market is advised to adopt a cautious wait-and-see approach, with expectations for the main index to fluctuate between 1,700 and 1,800 points [5]

Core Viewpoint - The shipping index (European line) futures experienced a significant decline, with the main contract dropping over 6%, indicating a bearish trend in the market [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 24, the shipping index (European line) futures fell to a low of 1746.4 points, closing at 1784.1 points, reflecting a decline of 6.36% [1]. - The latest SCFIS European line index recorded 1937.14 points, showing a slight increase of 14.1 points from the previous period [2][3]. Group 2: Price Adjustments - Shipping companies are showing signs of price adjustments, with Hapag-Lloyd reducing July mid-month rates from $2635/$4335 to $2435/$3835, representing decreases of 8% and 12% for small and large containers, respectively [2]. - CMA CGM has also adjusted its rates downwards, indicating that booking conditions are not meeting expectations, with a notable price reduction of $15 and $45 for different container types [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trends - The market sentiment remains pessimistic, with expectations of continued downward pressure on the shipping index due to oversupply and weak demand [2][3]. - The geopolitical situation has shown signs of easing, with reports of a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, which may reduce the impact on the shipping market [2][3]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The EC2508 contract is expected to face strong resistance above the 2000-point mark, with a bearish trend likely to persist in the short term [3]. - Key support levels for EC2508 are identified around 1800 points, with expectations for the EC2506 delivery price to be below 1850 points [3].

Market Insights - The recent macroeconomic and high-frequency data indicate a mixed performance, with the economic activity index showing fluctuations after a recovery in May, remaining above "1" but below the levels of 2020-2024 [1][10] - The real estate market has shown a lackluster performance, with transaction volumes in major cities underperforming compared to the same period in previous years [1][13] - The automotive sector is experiencing a steady recovery, benefiting from new policies, with retail and wholesale sales showing significant year-on-year increases of 23% and 38% respectively [1][16] Domestic Economic Data - In May, industrial production increased by 5.8% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, while fixed asset investment growth slowed to 3.7% [2][33] - The retail sales of consumer goods rose by 6.4% year-on-year, surpassing the forecast of 4.85% [2][41] - Fiscal revenue showed a slight decline, with tax revenue remaining positive but non-tax revenue turning negative, indicating a weakening in land transactions [2][58] International Economic Context - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with projections indicating potential rate cuts in 2025, reflecting expectations of slower economic growth and rising unemployment [3][41] Industry Allocation Recommendations - Investment strategies should focus on three main areas: advancements in AI technology, recovery in consumer stocks, and the resurgence of undervalued dividend stocks [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the AI industry's progress, as it significantly influences the performance of undervalued dividend stocks [4]

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical 1 - year and all - time quantiles of stock index futures spreads, including IF, IH, IC, IM, and cross - variety ratios [1] - **Summary by Catalog**: - **Spot - Futures Spread**: IF's is - 30.20, down 1.29; IH's is - 16.68, down 1.66; IC's is - 74.15, up 0.72; IM's is - 93.46, up 10.33 [1] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Different delivery month spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented, with various changes and quantiles [1] - **Cross - Variety Ratio**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., are given, along with their changes and quantiles [1] Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Displays the latest values, changes from the previous day, and quantiles since listing of treasury bond futures spreads, including TS, TF, T, TL, and cross - variety spreads [4] - **Summary by Catalog**: - **Basis**: IRR and basis values for TS, TF, T, and TL are presented [4] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Spreads between different delivery months for TS, TF, T, and TL are shown, with corresponding changes and quantiles [4] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: Spreads between different treasury bond futures varieties are given, along with their changes and quantiles [4] Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Shows domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals [8] - **Summary by Catalog**: - **Domestic and Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: AU2508 contract is down 0.73%, AG2508 contract is down 0.76%; COMEX gold is down 1.73%, COMEX silver is down 0.76% [8] - **Spot Prices**: London gold, London silver, Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D, and silver T + D all show declines [8] - **Basis**: Basis values and their changes for gold and silver are presented, along with historical 1 - year quantiles [8] - **Ratio**: Ratios of COMEX gold/silver, SHFE gold/silver are given, with their changes and percentage changes [8] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields decline, while the US dollar index rises [8] - **Inventory and Positions**: Some inventories change slightly, and ETF positions remain unchanged [8] Group 4: Container Shipping Index - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Provides settlement price indices, Shanghai export container freight rates, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry [12] - **Summary by Catalog**: - **Settlement Price Index**: SCFIS (European route) is down 1.44%, SCFIS (US West route) is up 18.90% [12] - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Rate**: SCFI composite index, SCFI (Europe), SCFI (US West), and SCFI (US East) all show increases [12] - **Futures Price and Basis**: Futures prices of different contracts change, and the basis of the main contract decreases by 7.16% [12] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply is stable, Shanghai port's on - time rate and berthing situation decline, and some overseas economic indicators change [12] Group 5: Domestic Data/Information - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Lists domestic economic indicators and financial events in different sectors, including black and non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, and special commodities [17] - **Summary by Catalog**: - **Black and Non - ferrous Metals**: Steel Union's weekly survey of 523 mine production and sales for coking coal and coke [17] - **Energy and Chemicals**: China's port commercial crude oil inventory data from Longzhong Information [17] - **Special Commodities**: Glass sales rate and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory [17] Group 6: Capital Flow and Key Position Changes - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The report title mentions capital flow and key position changes, but specific content is incomplete and unavailable for detailed summary [19]

Group 1: Shipping Freight Index - The shipping index includes SCFI comprehensive index, SCFIS European route, and container index (European route) futures, which reflect the pricing of freight futures and the impact of tariffs [1][9][10] - The SCFI comprehensive index has shown a rebound since May 9, increasing by 9% compared to the end of March, influenced by export rush and transshipment [10][13] - The China Container Freight Index (CCFI) has fluctuated this year, hitting a low on April 3 and then rebounding, with the CCFI comprehensive index increasing by 0.2% from its low as of May 16 [13][15] Group 2: Port Cargo Throughput - Domestic port cargo throughput has shown resilience, with container throughput reaching a record high on April 27, 2023, despite a brief decline earlier in the month [2][20][23] - The Port of Los Angeles, the busiest port in the U.S., saw its import container throughput drop to the lowest level since June 2024 by May 10, indicating negative impacts from tariffs on U.S. imports and exports [2][22][24] Group 3: Domestic Production Activity - The high-frequency economic activity index from the First Financial Research Institute has been declining since the end of March but remains above 1, indicating stronger economic activity compared to the previous year [3][27][29] - The manufacturing PMI new export orders index fell from 49% to 44.7%, while the EPMI production index dropped from 67.7% in March to 51.6% [29][30] Group 4: Trade Outlook - South Korea's Export Situation - South Korea's export data showed stronger-than-seasonal growth in early April, with fluctuations in mid-April likely related to trade negotiations with the U.S. [4][30][32] - By May, South Korea's exports were weaker than seasonal expectations, indicating ongoing volatility ahead of the conclusion of U.S.-Korea trade talks [4][32][34]