12月15日，现货黄金价格继续上行，伦敦金现价盘中一度突破4350美元/盎司。 伴随金价回暖，资金配置黄金的意愿同步升温，黄金ETF年内规模扩张明显。截至12月12日，全市场已 有5只黄金ETF管理规模突破百亿元，头部产品年内实现快速放量。 机构人士指出，在降息预期与流动性环境边际改善的背景下，黄金的中长期配置价值正再度受到市场重 视。 金价走强，黄金ETF规模扩张明显 12月15日，现货黄金价格再度走高，重回阶段性高位，伦敦金现价盘中一度突破4350美元/盎司。回顾 上周走势，国际金价整体呈现平稳上行态势，避险与配置需求对金价形成持续支撑。数据显示，上周伦 敦现货黄金收于4299美元/盎司，周环比上涨2.4%；国内AU9999黄金收于964元/克，周环比上涨1.0%。 但另一方面，鑫元基金也表示，联储内部对通胀与"数据缺口"的担忧上升、点阵图暗示2026年降息有 限，意味着利率下行的顺风未必线性延续，金价上冲后更容易进入"消息驱动+技术面回吐"，全球货币 政策方面，市场对日本央行12月加息的预期升温、欧洲央行偏鹰派的"更长时间按兵不动"取向，可能阶 段性推升全球利率波动并扰动美元与避险资产定价。 责编：杨喻 ...

Core Points - Global stock markets experienced significant declines, while commodity ETFs dominated the gainers list, with the soybean meal ETF leading at a 0.8% increase and a cumulative rise of 4% since October 20 [1] - The gold ETF from Huaxia briefly turned positive, currently down 0.36%, but has seen a 50% increase year-to-date, with net inflows of 999.1 million yuan over 16 consecutive days [1] - The soybean meal ETF has recorded net inflows of 135 million yuan over 57 trading days since August 26, despite a decline in U.S. soybean exports affecting price levels [1] Summary by Category Market Performance - The soybean meal ETF (159985) is the only ETF tracking the Dalian Commodity Exchange soybean meal futures price index, with significant influence from upstream soybean and downstream pork market dynamics [1] - Despite a surprising increase in U.S. non-farm payrolls for September, the rising unemployment rate indicates potential weaknesses in the labor market, leading to mixed market sentiments regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in December [1] Investment Insights - UBS has raised its mid-2024 gold price target to $4,500, with an optimistic scenario aiming for $4,900 [1] - The Huaxia gold ETF (518850) tracks the SGE gold 9999 index, has a low comprehensive fee rate of 0.2%, and allows T+0 trading, making it an attractive investment vehicle [2]

Market Overview - On October 16, A-shares showed mixed performance with a shift in market style, as funds flowed into dividend sectors, leading to a collective surge in the coal sector, while insurance and banking sectors also performed well. In contrast, the semiconductor and controlled nuclear fusion sectors experienced declines [1][4]. Fund Flows - The stock ETF market saw a net outflow of over 5 billion yuan, with broad-based indices like the CSI A500 experiencing significant outflows. The recent surge in "golden tracks" attracted substantial capital, with over 15 billion yuan flowing into the SGE Gold 9999 index in the past five days and over 10 billion yuan into the Hang Seng Technology index [2][3]. ETF Performance - As of October 16, the total scale of 1,228 stock ETFs reached 4.58 trillion yuan. The stock ETF market saw a reduction of 1.147 billion shares, translating to a net outflow of 5.042 billion yuan [2]. - Commodity ETFs and Hong Kong market ETFs led the inflows, with net inflows of 5.147 billion yuan and 3.374 billion yuan, respectively [3]. Sector Analysis - The banking, securities, and coal sectors were notably active, with the Bank ETF, Rare Earth ETF, and Securities ETF seeing the highest net inflows [6]. - Conversely, the CSI A500 index faced a net outflow of 2.36 billion yuan, indicating a shift away from broader market indices [8]. Gold ETFs - Gold-related ETFs continued to perform strongly, with year-to-date gains exceeding 60%. The gold ETF saw a net inflow of 800 million yuan on October 16 [5][7]. Investment Sentiment - The current market sentiment is cautious due to factors such as U.S.-China tensions, leading to a decline in risk appetite. The coal, banking, and food and beverage sectors are currently leading the market, while sectors like steel and construction materials are weakening [10]. Fund Management Insights - Major fund companies like E Fund and Huaxia Fund reported significant inflows into their ETFs, with E Fund's ETFs increasing by 2.5 billion yuan recently, reflecting strong investor interest in specific sectors [7]. Conclusion - The market is currently in a phase of "policy impetus + performance verification," with a focus on sectors with strong earnings certainty and clear policy catalysts expected to drive future performance [10].

Core Viewpoint - Recent market trends indicate a significant influx of capital into the "golden track," particularly in gold-related ETFs, with over 15 billion yuan flowing into the SGE Gold 9999 index in the past five days [2][6]. Market Trends - On October 16, A-shares showed mixed performance, with a shift in market style towards dividend sectors, coal stocks rising collectively, and insurance and banking sectors leading in gains [2]. - The stock ETF market experienced a net outflow of over 5 billion yuan, with broad-based indices like the CSI A500 seeing significant withdrawals [2][14]. ETF Performance - The total scale of the stock ETF market reached 4.58 trillion yuan, with a reduction of 11.47 million units in total shares on October 16, leading to a net outflow of 50.42 billion yuan [4][5]. - Gold ETFs continued to perform well, with year-to-date gains exceeding 60% for products like the Shanghai Gold ETF [7]. Capital Flow - In terms of capital flow, commodity ETFs and Hong Kong market ETFs saw the highest net inflows, amounting to 51.47 billion yuan and 33.74 billion yuan, respectively [6]. - The SGE Gold 9999 index led the inflow with 47.46 billion yuan on October 16, and over 153 billion yuan in the last five days [6]. Sector Analysis - The banking, brokerage, and coal sectors have shown increased activity, with significant net inflows into related ETFs [11]. - Conversely, technology stocks have faced challenges, with a notable shift of funds from emerging market tech stocks back to gold and other safer assets due to rising global risk aversion [9]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market is at a critical juncture, with potential for policy-driven growth and performance verification in the upcoming earnings reports [18].

Core Insights - Recent market trends indicate a significant influx of capital into the "golden track," with over 15 billion yuan flowing into the SGE Gold 9999 index in the past five days [1][4] - The A-share market showed mixed performance on October 16, with notable gains in the coal, insurance, and banking sectors, while technology and controlled nuclear fusion stocks faced declines [1][5] Fund Flow Analysis - The total scale of all stock ETFs in the market reached 4.58 trillion yuan as of October 16, with a net outflow of over 5 billion yuan from the stock ETF market on the same day [2][3] - Commodity ETFs and Hong Kong market ETFs saw the highest net inflows, amounting to 5.15 billion yuan and 3.37 billion yuan respectively [4] - The SGE Gold 9999 index led the inflows with 4.75 billion yuan on October 16, contributing to a total of over 15.3 billion yuan in the last five days [4][6] Sector Performance - Gold-related ETFs have shown strong performance, with year-to-date gains exceeding 60% [6] - In contrast, the broad-based ETFs experienced significant outflows, with the CSI A500 index seeing a net outflow of 2.36 billion yuan on October 16 [9][10] - Specific ETFs such as the bank ETF, rare earth ETF, and non-bank Hong Kong stock ETFs attracted substantial inflows, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards these sectors [7][8] Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment is influenced by rising global risk aversion and ongoing U.S.-China tensions, leading to a shift from emerging market tech stocks to safer assets like gold [5][11] - Analysts suggest that the market is at a critical juncture, with upcoming policy initiatives and earnings reports expected to guide future investment directions [11]