白银ETF收益领先 金融工程周报 基金市场回顾： 操作评级 中信五风格-成长★☆☆ 金融工程组 张婧婕 Z0022617 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 权益市场风格 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 1 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 2025年9月29日 周度报告 截至2025/09/26当周，通联全A（沪深京）、中证综合债与南 华商品指数周度涨跌幅分别为0.21%、-0.27%、0.43%。 公募基金市场方面，近一周被动指数类产品收益表现偏强，中性 策略产品跌多涨少，债券方面转债收益强于纯债，商品方面贵金 属ETF净值持续走强，近一周白银ETF上涨5.72%，豆粕ETF 延续回撤。 中信五风格方面，上周成长与周期收涨，其余风格收跌，风格轮 动图显示相对强弱层面周期风格边际转弱，指标动量层面稳定与 金融小幅回升。公募基金池方面，近一周消费风格基金超额表现 较优，周度超额收益率为0.91%，从基金风格系数走势来看产 品对周期风格偏移度边际提升；本周市场拥挤度指标小幅提高， 当前金融与消费风格位于历史偏高拥挤区间。 中性策略方面，从当季合约基差（期货-现货） ...

Report Investment Rating - The operation rating for CITIC Five-Style - Growth is ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability in the market [5] Core Viewpoints - In the week ending September 19, 2025, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index were -0.27%, -0.03%, and 0.24% respectively. The growth and cyclical styles of CITIC Five-Style closed up, while the others closed down. The growth style continued to strengthen in terms of indicator momentum [5] - Among public funds, the ordinary stock strategy performed well with a weekly return of 0.48%. The convertible bond strategy in the bond strategy weakened, and the pure bond strategy's return rebounded. The net value of the soybean meal ETF declined by 2.68%, and the return of the precious metal ETF slightly corrected [5] - In the neutral strategy, the basis of IH, IF, and IC contracts was within 1 standard deviation of the three - month average, and the IM contract was below -1 standard deviation of the three - month average, indicating that the hedging cost was still at a relatively high level [5] - The short - term momentum factor had a good performance with a weekly excess return of 1.84%. The leverage and ALPHA factors continued to weaken, and the winning rate of the dividend factor rebounded month - on - month [5] - According to the latest score of the style timing model, the growth style rebounded this week, while the consumption and stable styles weakened, and the current signal favored the growth style [5] Summary by Directory Fund Market Review - The ordinary stock strategy in the public fund market performed well with a weekly return of 0.48%. The convertible bond strategy in the bond strategy weakened, and the pure bond strategy's return rebounded. The net value of the soybean meal ETF declined by 2.68%, and the precious metal ETF's return slightly corrected [5] - The financial - style funds in the public fund pool had excellent excess performance with a weekly excess return of 3.14%. The product's deviation from the growth style increased marginally, and the overall market indicator of the crowding degree declined slightly this week. The financial style was in a historically high - crowding range [5] Equity Market Strategy - In the neutral strategy, as of last Friday, the basis of IH, IF, and IC contracts was within 1 standard deviation of the three - month average, and the IM contract was below -1 standard deviation of the three - month average, indicating a relatively high hedging cost. The premium rates of the spot index ETFs corresponding to IH and IF were in the high quantile range of the past three months, while those of IC and IM were in the medium quantile range [5] - The short - term momentum factor had a weekly excess return of 1.84%. The leverage and ALPHA factors continued to weaken, and the winning rate of the dividend factor rebounded month - on - month. The cross - section rotation speed of factors rebounded month - on - month and was currently in the low - to - medium quantile range of the past year [5] - According to the style timing model, the growth style rebounded this week, the consumption and stable styles weakened, and the signal favored the growth style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was -1.72%, and the excess return compared to the benchmark balanced allocation was -0.71% [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that asset allocation is the only free lunch in the investment market, highlighting the importance of strategic investment choices [1] - The FOF market has shown a strong rebound in the first half of 2025, with the number of FOF products reaching 517 and total net assets amounting to 165.67 billion yuan, a growth of 24.4% from the beginning of the year [4][6] - The largest holding type in FOF funds remains the mixed bond FOF, with a total holding size of 77.22 billion yuan, accounting for 46.6% of the total [6] Group 2 - FOF funds are increasingly adopting an index-based approach, with ETFs becoming the core allocation tool, as evidenced by 15 out of the top 20 held funds being ETFs [8] - The most favored product among FOFs is the Gold ETF, held by 227 FOFs, reflecting a strong demand for safe-haven assets [9][12] - The performance of FOFs varies, with stock-type FOFs rising by 23.1% year-to-date, while bond-type FOFs have only increased by 1.5% [6][10] Group 3 - The preference for ETFs among FOFs is driven by market conditions, investor demand, and product characteristics, with a focus on both stability and growth [11] - The popularity of the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF indicates FOFs' optimism towards the Hong Kong technology sector, which is seen as undervalued after significant corrections [18][19] - Short-term bond ETFs and soybean meal ETFs are gaining traction among FOFs, showcasing the managers' unique insights into niche asset allocations [22][28] Group 4 - The short-term bond ETF offers low credit risk and high liquidity, with returns significantly higher than traditional savings rates, reflecting a focus on stability in uncertain environments [24][26] - The soybean meal ETF, as a representative of commodity futures, provides unique risk-return characteristics and is included in FOFs for its inflation-hedging properties [27][28] - Overall, the changes in FOF holdings illustrate the core value and unique appeal of ETF products in asset allocation, with a multi-dimensional approach to risk management and growth opportunities [29]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of diversified asset allocation in investment strategies, inspired by Ray Dalio's "All Weather Strategy," which suggests that having 10-15 uncorrelated return streams can significantly reduce non-systematic risk while capturing overall market returns [5][6]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The investment strategy involves a total investment of approximately 3 million, with a focus on multi-asset diversification to achieve a cumulative return exceeding 3 million [3]. - The allocation includes 33% in overseas investments, with a mix of active and passive management strategies, such as the Nasdaq 100 Index fund and various actively managed global technology funds [7][11]. - Domestic investments account for 46%, employing various strategies including balanced, growth, small-cap, and micro-cap funds to capture different market opportunities [12][13]. - A 16% allocation is made to dividend indices, focusing on companies with consistent dividend payouts, providing a sense of security in the investment portfolio [14]. - The commodity allocation is 20%, primarily in gold, oil, and soybean meal ETFs, serving as a hedge against market volatility and inflation [15][16]. Risk Management and Investment Philosophy - The investment approach prioritizes stability and risk management, aiming to preserve profits and control drawdowns in a volatile market environment [16]. - The philosophy encourages investors to find a rhythm that suits their risk tolerance, avoiding the temptation to chase quick profits or panic during market downturns [16].

Group 1 - The macro timing strategy has an annualized return of 7.08% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.34 as of August 29, 2025, with the latest portfolio including various ETFs such as the CSI 500 ETF (8.35%) and government bond ETFs (38.21%) [2][4][8] - The momentum strategy has an annualized return of 20.22% since 2020, with a recent portfolio allocation including the CSI Digital Economy Theme ETF (19.51%) and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Chip ETF (20.37%) [10][14] - The industry rotation strategy has achieved an annualized return of 9.34% since 2020, with the latest holdings including non-ferrous metals ETFs and green power ETFs [19][16] Group 2 - The Copula-based second-order stochastic dominance strategy has an annualized return of 15.52% since 2020, with the latest portfolio including the Huaxia CSI Agricultural Theme ETF (6.71%) and the Guangfa CSI Major Consumption ETF (69.79%) [21][24] - The technology ETF allocation strategy based on quantile random forests has an annualized return of 12.33% since 2020, with a significant portion allocated to the Guangfa CSI All-Index Information Technology ETF (4.78%) and the Huatai-PineBridge CSI Photovoltaic Industry ETF (76.51%) [27][31]

Group 1 - The ETF market opened with mixed performance on August 13, with notable gains in certain ETFs such as the ChiNext 50 ETF from Guotai, which rose by 2.99% [1] - The soybean meal ETF increased by 2.62%, while the STAR Market Composite Index ETF from Harvest saw a rise of 2.01% [1] - Conversely, the medical device ETF declined by 0.94%, the semiconductor equipment ETF dropped by 0.81%, and the rare metals ETF fell by 0.76% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently at a high stage, entering a "pressure above, support below" oscillation range, where the convenience of "T+0" trading for cross-border ETFs is highlighted, allowing investors to maintain positions without missing opportunities during upward trends and to stop losses on sudden downward movements [1] T+0 Settlement System - The "T+0" settlement system allows for the clearing and delivery of securities and funds on the same day of the transaction, contrasting with China's "T+1" system, which completes this process on the second working day after the transaction [3] - Certain exceptions exist for cross-border ETFs, commodity ETFs, and credit bond ETFs that can utilize the "T+0" mechanism [3] Advantages of T+0 Trading - T+0 trading helps investors seize intraday trading opportunities, making it particularly attractive for volatile stock ETFs [4] - Although A-shares do not allow T+0 trading, markets like Hong Kong do, providing flexibility for investors [4] Trading Advantages of Hong Kong T+0 ETFs - T+0 trading in the Hong Kong market, especially in the technology sector, allows investors to capture intraday trading opportunities and respond flexibly to rapid market changes without limits on trading frequency [7] - The T+0 mechanism enables investors to rotate between sectors within the same trading day, as different sectors may show significant performance divergence [8] - T+0 trading helps avoid overnight holding risks, allowing investors to quickly sell off positions in response to sudden negative events, given the absence of price limits in the Hong Kong market [8] Specific ETF Examples - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) is highlighted as a leading product in terms of scale and average daily trading volume among A-share ETFs tracking the Hang Seng Technology Index [10]

Group 1: Fund Management Updates - Wang Lang has been appointed as the new deputy general manager of Baoying Fund as of July 22, 2023, previously holding positions at Penghua Fund and Guoshou Anbao Fund [1] - As of the end of Q2 2023, there are 24 funds with over 10 billion yuan in assets, a decrease from 27 funds in the same period last year and 26 funds at the end of Q1 2023 [2] - The largest fund remains the E Fund Blue Chip Select managed by Zhang Kun, with a latest size of 34.943 billion yuan, down by 3.965 billion yuan from the end of Q1 [2] Group 2: Market Trends and Performance - The allocation ratio of public funds to Sci-Tech Innovation Board stocks reached a record high of 15.36% by the end of Q2 2023, an increase of 0.19 percentage points from Q1 [3] - The excess allocation ratio for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board also rose from 7.5% to 7.72% [3] Group 3: Notable Fund Manager Insights - Fund manager Ge Lan expressed optimism about the innovative drug sector, highlighting advancements in dual antibodies and ADC technologies, as well as increasing collaboration between domestic companies and multinational pharmaceutical firms [4] - Ge Lan noted that domestic innovative drugs are gaining global recognition, with multiple products expected to have overseas licensing opportunities [4] Group 4: ETF Market Overview - The market experienced a rally with major indices reaching new highs; the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.21%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.5% [5] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.84 trillion yuan, a decrease of 199 billion yuan from the previous trading day [5] - Rare earth permanent magnet stocks surged, with the Rare Metal ETF rising by 7.49% [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite rising geopolitical tensions, improvements in global supply and demand, along with low inventory levels, are expected to boost small metal prices, enhancing corporate profitability and growth potential [9] - The valuation attractiveness of industry leaders is expected to become more pronounced, with a focus on rare metal-related ETFs [9]

Group 1 - The rare metals ETFs showed significant gains, with the leading rare metals ETF (159608) rising by 7.49% [1] - Other rare metals ETFs also performed well, with fund (561800) increasing by 7.32% and fund (159671) up by 6.87% [1] - In contrast, the soybean meal ETF (159985) experienced the largest decline, falling by 2.04% [1] Group 2 - The sustainable development ETF (515090) decreased by 1.85% [1] - The gold ETF (AU518860) also saw a decline, dropping by 1.73% [1]

Group 1 - The CBOT soybean futures market experienced a slight decline, with support sought amid lower U.S. soybean crop ratings and trade negotiation news [1] - As of July 20, the U.S. soybean good-to-excellent rating was reported at 68%, below the market expectation of 71% [1] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange's soybean meal futures price index has shown performance of -3.07% over the past year, -6.46% over the past two years, and +31.02% over the past three years [1] Group 2 - The soybean meal ETF (159985) is the only listed agricultural product ETF in the domestic market, showing a 0.30% increase today after four consecutive days of gains [1][2] - The soybean meal ETF has long-term investment value in asset allocation, inflation hedging, and roll yield, with low correlation to the stock market [2] - Soybean meal is the largest production variety among 12 oilseed meal feed types, indicating a strong spot market foundation [2]