Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For lead, raw material tightness and peak - season expectations support the lead price, with short - term prices in a range - bound and stronger consolidation, but high prices may limit upside potential due to reduced downstream purchasing enthusiasm [1]. - For zinc, recent macro - positive sentiment and supply - side disturbances have led to a rebound in zinc prices, but this may suppress downstream buying and cause inventory accumulation, limiting the rebound space. Opportunities for short - selling should be watched for when positive factors fade [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data**: On July 14, 2025, the SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,925 yuan/ton, down 0.44%; the futures main - contract closing price was 17,075 yuan/ton, down 0.90%. The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic) was 2,017 dollars/ton, down 0.98%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 69.79% to 52,461 lots, and the open interest increased by 1.80% to 53,479 lots. The LME lead inventory was 249,375 tons, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 4.48% to 52,901 tons [1]. - **Industry Operation**: From July 4 to July 10, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 66.88%, down 1.6 percentage points; that of secondary lead enterprises was 35.5%, up 0.7 percentage points; and that of lead - acid battery enterprises was 70.76%, down 1.07 percentage points. Inner Mongolia's secondary lead smelters under maintenance have no restart plan this week, and raw material supply and consumption limit production [1]. - **Fundamentals and Outlook**: Lead concentrate imports are not expected to increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase. Secondary lead production is at a relatively low level due to raw material shortages and cost issues, and finished - product inventory is rising. Demand is expected to improve as it transitions from the off - season to the peak season [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: On July 14, 2025, the SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,360 yuan/ton, up 0.13%; the futures main - contract closing price was 22,380 yuan/ton, down 0.02%. The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic) was 2,738 dollars/ton, down 1.40%. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 11.68% to 129,357 lots, and the open interest decreased by 4.44% to 107,632 lots. The LME zinc inventory was 105,250 tons, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.57% to 8,873 tons [1]. - **Industry Operation**: From July 4 to July 10, the weekly operating rate of galvanized enterprises was 58.29%, up 1.81 percentage points; that of die - cast zinc alloy enterprises was 53.94%, up 4.80 percentage points; and that of zinc oxide enterprises was 55.84%, down 0.30 percentage points. Hudbay Minerals suspended operations in the Snow Lake area due to wildfires but maintained its 2025 production guidance [1]. - **Fundamentals and Outlook**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The tight supply of zinc concentrate has improved, and production is expected to increase. Downstream purchasing increased slightly when prices fell during the week, but overall demand remains weak [1].

Core Viewpoint - The recent extension of the "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration has created a negative sentiment in the non-ferrous metals market, with concerns about trade negotiations and their potential impact on global economic growth and commodity demand [2][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The overall sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector is declining, influenced by macroeconomic factors and the recent tariff threats from the Trump administration [2][4]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for June exceeded expectations, indicating a strong labor market, which has led to a rebound in the U.S. dollar index and suppressed risk asset prices [3]. - The market is currently entering a demand off-season, with a noticeable decline in demand for photovoltaic components and household appliances, leading to an accumulation of social inventory for various non-ferrous metals [3][5]. Group 2: Tariff Policy and Trade Negotiations - Trump's tariff threats are affecting non-ferrous metal prices through increased market pessimism and heightened risk aversion [4]. - The ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S. and its trade partners are critical, as failure to reach agreements could significantly impact exports from related countries and regions [2][4]. - Analysts suggest that the market should closely monitor the economic recovery of major economies, particularly the U.S. and China, as this will influence demand for non-ferrous metals [4][5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for copper and aluminum is expected to decline as they enter the off-season, with social inventory gradually increasing [3]. - Different non-ferrous metals exhibit varying fundamentals; for instance, zinc prices are pressured by rising processing fees and recovering production, while copper production is declining due to lower processing fees and disruptions in overseas smelting [5]. - The second half of the year may see structural changes in domestic consumption, with potential support from infrastructure investments, despite a slowdown in certain sectors like real estate and household appliances [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Core Viewpoints - For lead, although downstream has not entered the peak season and there is still a risk of inventory accumulation, the continuous shortage of waste batteries, increased losses of secondary lead smelters, and high uncertainty in production start-up provide strong support for lead prices. Future attention should be paid to the improvement of demand and macro uncertainties [1] - For zinc, recent macro sentiment has improved, and downstream spot trading has improved after the zinc price decline. However, considering supply-side suppression and inventory accumulation expectations, the rebound space of zinc prices may be limited, and a short position strategy is still recommended [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Indicators**: On June 16, 2025, the average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 16,775 yuan/ton, up 0.45%; the closing price of the futures main contract was 16,945 yuan/ton, up 0.33%; the Shanghai lead basis was -170 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the LME 3-month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was 1,992.50 US dollars/ton, up 0.03%; the Shanghai-London lead price ratio was 8.50, up 0.30% [1] - **Industry Data**: From June 7 to June 13, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 70.79%, a week-on-week increase of 0.33 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 32.1%, a week-on-week decrease of 4.1 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of lead battery enterprises was 72.19%, a week-on-week increase of 11.8 percentage points. As of June 13, the finished product inventory of secondary lead smelters was 25,000 tons, an increase of 2,050 tons from the previous week. The silver pricing coefficient in lead concentrates has not changed [1] - **Market Analysis**: The production of primary lead is stable with a slight increase, while secondary lead production is at a relatively low level due to raw material shortages and cost issues. The demand side is gradually shifting from the off-season to the peak season, and the drag on lead prices may slow down [1] Zinc - **Price and Market Indicators**: On June 16, 2025, the average price of SMM 1 zinc ingots was 22,170 yuan/ton, down 0.31%; the closing price of the futures main contract was 21,815 yuan/ton, down 1.22%; the Shanghai zinc basis was 355 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the LME 3-month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,626.50 US dollars/ton, down 0.66%; the Shanghai-London zinc price ratio was 8.31, down 0.56% [1] - **Industry Data**: From June 7 to June 13, the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was 60.06%, a week-on-week increase of 0.48 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of die-cast zinc alloy enterprises was 59.84%, a week-on-week increase of 6.16 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 58.92%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.58 percentage points. Last week, there were overseas zinc mine tenders with a tender volume of about 10,000 tons each [1] - **Market Analysis**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. The supply-side pressure is increasing, while the demand side is in the off-season, with mixed performance in different sectors [1]