| 铅锌日评20251117：沪铅上方承压；沪锌或有回调 | 指标 | 2025/11/17 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | 近期趋势 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 元/吨 | 17,425.00 | -0.43% | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | 沪铅期现价格 | 元/吨 | 17,495.00 | -0.88% | 期货主力合约收盘价 | | 元/吨 | -70.00 | 80.00 | 沪铅基差 | 元/吨 | 15.00 | 15.00 | 升贴水-上海 | | | 美元/吨 | -23.09 | 1.17 | 升贴水-LME 0-3 | 美元/吨 | -86.20 | 8.20 | 升贴水-LME 3-15 | 价差 | | 元/吨 | -50.00 | -30.00 | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 | 元/吨 | -10.00 | 10.00 | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 | 铅 | | 元/吨 | -10.00 | -10.00 | 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 | 手 | 37,346.00 | -39.18% | 期货 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For the lead market, there is an increase in both supply and demand, but refinery operations fall short of expectations due to factors like raw materials, resulting in tight spot circulation and extremely low social inventories. The lead price has broken through the 17,300 yuan/ton resistance level. With good refinery profits and an open import window, attention should be paid to the improvement of supply, and there is a need to be vigilant against a potential sharp decline in lead prices [1] - For the zinc market, the macro sentiment has improved, and the domestic mine supply situation has tightened, making domestic TC difficult to increase. The zinc price has received some support and is fluctuating upwards. With the continuous reduction of LME zinc inventories and the persistent LME 0 - 3 back structure, attention should be paid to overseas structural risks [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Market Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,300 yuan/ton, up 1.02% from the previous day; the closing price of the main lead futures contract was 17,595 yuan/ton, down 0.11% from the previous day; the LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic session) was 2,016.50 dollars/ton, up 0.22% [1] - The lead basis was - 295 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous lead futures contract was 40 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous lead futures contract was 45 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active lead futures contract was 79,514 lots, up 7.44%; the open interest was 83,846 lots, up 260.04%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.95, down 70.16% [1] Inventory - LME lead inventory was 235,375 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warrant inventory was 23,048 tons, down 2.89% [1] Industry News - From October 17th to December 25th, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 67.57%, up 0.93 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 42.2%, up 7.1 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 75.36%, up 0.39 percentage points [1] - A secondary lead refinery in East China has decided to temporarily halt production, with only a small number of long - term orders to be fulfilled, and the resumption date is undetermined [1] Investment Strategy - A short position can be lightly established at high levels [1] Zinc Market Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,120 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous day; the closing price of the main zinc futures contract was 22,355 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day; the LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic session) was 3,019.50 dollars/ton, down 0.10% [1] - The zinc basis was - 235 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous zinc futures contract was - 40 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous zinc futures contract was - 30 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active zinc futures contract was 130,461 lots, down 20.62%; the open interest was 120,167 lots, down 3.67%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 1.09, down 17.60% [1] Inventory - LME zinc inventory was 37,600 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warrant inventory was 65,849 tons, up 0.49% [1] Industry News - From October 17th to December 25th, the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was 57.48%, down 0.57 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 53.13%, down 1.50 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 56.36%, down 0.77 percentage points [1] - On October 23rd, the LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was 225.89 dollars/ton, and the open interest was 221,889 lots, an increase of 300 lots [1] Investment Strategy - Temporarily stay on the sidelines [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - For lead, the supply - tight situation has improved, some demand was released in September, and there is a large inventory build - up pressure. With the resurgence of tariff disturbances, lead prices may face pressure again. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - For zinc, overseas LME zinc inventories are at an absolute low, and the LME 0 - 3 back structure deepens, providing some support for zinc prices. However, the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc remain weak, and with the resurgence of tariff disturbances and strong macro - risk aversion sentiment, non - ferrous metals may face pressure again. The trading strategy is also to wait and see [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data** - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,925 yuan/ton, up 0.74% [1]. - Shanghai lead futures main contract closed at 17,140 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [1]. - Shanghai lead basis was - 215 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [1]. - LME 0 - 3 lead premium was - 75.20 dollars/ton, with a change of - 6.90 [1]. - Futures active contract volume was 36,308 hands, down 9.68%; open interest was 44,795 hands, up 9.05%; volume - to - open - interest ratio was 0.81, down 17.18% [1]. - LME lead inventory was 237,000 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 30,068 tons, unchanged [1]. - LME 3 - month lead futures (electronic) closed at 2,014.50 dollars/ton, down 0.30%; Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.51, up 0.44% [1]. - **Industry News** - From October 2nd to 9th, SMM primary lead enterprise weekly operating rate was 68.47%, unchanged; secondary lead enterprise weekly operating rate was 34%, up 5.6 percentage points; lead - acid battery enterprise weekly operating rate was 61.71%, up 6.58 percentage points [1]. - A Hunan electrolytic lead smelter planned a 11 - day production maintenance in October, with an expected reduction of 2,000 - 2,400 tons in October electrolytic lead output [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data** - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,230 yuan/ton, up 0.72% [1]. - Shanghai zinc futures main contract closed at 22,270 yuan/ton, down 0.20% [1]. - Shanghai zinc basis was - 40 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton [1]. - LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was 100.45 dollars/ton, up 33.65 [1]. - Futures active contract volume was 174,778 hands, up 27.36%; open interest was 106,534 hands, down 5.93%; volume - to - open - interest ratio was 1.64, up 35.39% [1]. - LME zinc inventory was 37,950 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 60,644 tons, up 3.02% [1]. - LME 3 - month zinc futures (electronic) closed at 2,984.50 dollars/ton, down 0.98%; Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 7.46, up 0.78% [1]. - **Industry News** - From October 2nd to 9th, galvanized enterprise weekly operating rate was 46.82%, down 1.83 percentage points; die - cast zinc alloy enterprise weekly operating rate was 46.51%, down 0.35 percentage points; zinc oxide enterprise weekly operating rate was 56.08%, down 1.24 percentage points [1]. - On October 10th, LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was 100.45 dollars/ton, and open interest was 220,239 hands, down 54 hands [1].

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Steel (601005.SH) is currently unable to cooperate with Changan Automobile due to a lack of cold-rolled production lines, which are essential for the automobile's manufacturing needs [1] Company Summary - Changan Automobile is a key local automotive enterprise in Chongqing, primarily producing passenger vehicles that require cold-rolled and galvanized products [1] - Chongqing Steel's current collaborations are mainly with local commercial vehicle manufacturers and their supporting factories [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For lead, raw material tightness and peak - season expectations support the lead price, with short - term prices in a range - bound and stronger consolidation, but high prices may limit upside potential due to reduced downstream purchasing enthusiasm [1]. - For zinc, recent macro - positive sentiment and supply - side disturbances have led to a rebound in zinc prices, but this may suppress downstream buying and cause inventory accumulation, limiting the rebound space. Opportunities for short - selling should be watched for when positive factors fade [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data**: On July 14, 2025, the SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,925 yuan/ton, down 0.44%; the futures main - contract closing price was 17,075 yuan/ton, down 0.90%. The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic) was 2,017 dollars/ton, down 0.98%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 69.79% to 52,461 lots, and the open interest increased by 1.80% to 53,479 lots. The LME lead inventory was 249,375 tons, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 4.48% to 52,901 tons [1]. - **Industry Operation**: From July 4 to July 10, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 66.88%, down 1.6 percentage points; that of secondary lead enterprises was 35.5%, up 0.7 percentage points; and that of lead - acid battery enterprises was 70.76%, down 1.07 percentage points. Inner Mongolia's secondary lead smelters under maintenance have no restart plan this week, and raw material supply and consumption limit production [1]. - **Fundamentals and Outlook**: Lead concentrate imports are not expected to increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase. Secondary lead production is at a relatively low level due to raw material shortages and cost issues, and finished - product inventory is rising. Demand is expected to improve as it transitions from the off - season to the peak season [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: On July 14, 2025, the SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,360 yuan/ton, up 0.13%; the futures main - contract closing price was 22,380 yuan/ton, down 0.02%. The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic) was 2,738 dollars/ton, down 1.40%. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 11.68% to 129,357 lots, and the open interest decreased by 4.44% to 107,632 lots. The LME zinc inventory was 105,250 tons, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.57% to 8,873 tons [1]. - **Industry Operation**: From July 4 to July 10, the weekly operating rate of galvanized enterprises was 58.29%, up 1.81 percentage points; that of die - cast zinc alloy enterprises was 53.94%, up 4.80 percentage points; and that of zinc oxide enterprises was 55.84%, down 0.30 percentage points. Hudbay Minerals suspended operations in the Snow Lake area due to wildfires but maintained its 2025 production guidance [1]. - **Fundamentals and Outlook**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The tight supply of zinc concentrate has improved, and production is expected to increase. Downstream purchasing increased slightly when prices fell during the week, but overall demand remains weak [1].

Core Viewpoint - The recent extension of the "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration has created a negative sentiment in the non-ferrous metals market, with concerns about trade negotiations and their potential impact on global economic growth and commodity demand [2][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The overall sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector is declining, influenced by macroeconomic factors and the recent tariff threats from the Trump administration [2][4]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for June exceeded expectations, indicating a strong labor market, which has led to a rebound in the U.S. dollar index and suppressed risk asset prices [3]. - The market is currently entering a demand off-season, with a noticeable decline in demand for photovoltaic components and household appliances, leading to an accumulation of social inventory for various non-ferrous metals [3][5]. Group 2: Tariff Policy and Trade Negotiations - Trump's tariff threats are affecting non-ferrous metal prices through increased market pessimism and heightened risk aversion [4]. - The ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S. and its trade partners are critical, as failure to reach agreements could significantly impact exports from related countries and regions [2][4]. - Analysts suggest that the market should closely monitor the economic recovery of major economies, particularly the U.S. and China, as this will influence demand for non-ferrous metals [4][5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for copper and aluminum is expected to decline as they enter the off-season, with social inventory gradually increasing [3]. - Different non-ferrous metals exhibit varying fundamentals; for instance, zinc prices are pressured by rising processing fees and recovering production, while copper production is declining due to lower processing fees and disruptions in overseas smelting [5]. - The second half of the year may see structural changes in domestic consumption, with potential support from infrastructure investments, despite a slowdown in certain sectors like real estate and household appliances [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Core Viewpoints - For lead, although downstream has not entered the peak season and there is still a risk of inventory accumulation, the continuous shortage of waste batteries, increased losses of secondary lead smelters, and high uncertainty in production start-up provide strong support for lead prices. Future attention should be paid to the improvement of demand and macro uncertainties [1] - For zinc, recent macro sentiment has improved, and downstream spot trading has improved after the zinc price decline. However, considering supply-side suppression and inventory accumulation expectations, the rebound space of zinc prices may be limited, and a short position strategy is still recommended [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Indicators**: On June 16, 2025, the average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 16,775 yuan/ton, up 0.45%; the closing price of the futures main contract was 16,945 yuan/ton, up 0.33%; the Shanghai lead basis was -170 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the LME 3-month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was 1,992.50 US dollars/ton, up 0.03%; the Shanghai-London lead price ratio was 8.50, up 0.30% [1] - **Industry Data**: From June 7 to June 13, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 70.79%, a week-on-week increase of 0.33 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 32.1%, a week-on-week decrease of 4.1 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of lead battery enterprises was 72.19%, a week-on-week increase of 11.8 percentage points. As of June 13, the finished product inventory of secondary lead smelters was 25,000 tons, an increase of 2,050 tons from the previous week. The silver pricing coefficient in lead concentrates has not changed [1] - **Market Analysis**: The production of primary lead is stable with a slight increase, while secondary lead production is at a relatively low level due to raw material shortages and cost issues. The demand side is gradually shifting from the off-season to the peak season, and the drag on lead prices may slow down [1] Zinc - **Price and Market Indicators**: On June 16, 2025, the average price of SMM 1 zinc ingots was 22,170 yuan/ton, down 0.31%; the closing price of the futures main contract was 21,815 yuan/ton, down 1.22%; the Shanghai zinc basis was 355 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the LME 3-month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,626.50 US dollars/ton, down 0.66%; the Shanghai-London zinc price ratio was 8.31, down 0.56% [1] - **Industry Data**: From June 7 to June 13, the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was 60.06%, a week-on-week increase of 0.48 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of die-cast zinc alloy enterprises was 59.84%, a week-on-week increase of 6.16 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 58.92%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.58 percentage points. Last week, there were overseas zinc mine tenders with a tender volume of about 10,000 tons each [1] - **Market Analysis**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. The supply-side pressure is increasing, while the demand side is in the off-season, with mixed performance in different sectors [1]