证券代码：000338.SZ/2338.HK 证券简称：潍柴动力 潍柴动力股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：20251124 | | ■特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 投资者关系活动 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | 类别 | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | ■现场参观 | | | □其他（请文字说明其他活动内容） | | 2025 | 年 11 月 21 日 15:30-17:00 | | | 博时基金 陈曦、王远征 | | 参与单位名称及 | 万泰华瑞投资 张乐 | | 人员姓名 | 明诚基金 兰乔 | | 2025 | 年 月 日 11 24 13:30-15:00 | | | Wellington Management Naveen Venkataramani | | 时间 2025 | 年 11 月 21 日、24 日 | | 地点 | 公司科技大楼会议室 | | 上市公司接待人 | 李婷婷、刘涵 | | 员姓名 | | | | 来访者参观了公司科技展馆和一号工厂，随后在公司会议 | | | 室就关注问题与公司进行了交流，交流主要内容包括： | | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the mixed performance of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board 100 Index, with Jinpan Technology leading the gains at 6.12% and Yuanjie Technology experiencing the largest decline [1] - The active performance of electric grid equipment stocks is noted, with Jinpan Technology reaching a historical high [1] - A significant statement from Microsoft and OpenAI CEOs indicates that the current challenge in the AI industry is not an excess of computing power but rather a lack of sufficient electricity to support all GPU operations [1] Group 2 - Huayuan Securities suggests that AI could significantly boost electricity demand in the U.S., with OpenAI planning to deploy over 250GW of computing centers by 2033, potentially leading to a dramatic increase in electricity demand [2] - GridStrategies predicts that the peak electricity load in the U.S. will reach 947GW by 2029, an increase of 128GW compared to 2024, with AIDC being a major driving factor [2] - The largest U.S. ISO, PJM, has raised its load forecast, predicting a peak load of 184GW by 2030, a 19.3% increase from 2025 [2] - Recommendations include focusing on solid-state transformers (SST) as a key development direction for power supply architecture in computing centers, as well as opportunities in electric grid equipment exports, energy storage, and SOFC [2] - The Sci-Tech 100 ETF closely tracks the Sci-Tech 100 Index, which is the first and only mid-cap style index on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, focusing on high-growth sectors such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and new energy [2]

Investment Opportunities in the Power and Environmental Sector - The report highlights that OpenAI plans to deploy over 250GW of computing centers by 2033, which could significantly increase electricity demand in the US. This new load from OpenAI alone exceeds 25% of the current highest national load of approximately 820GW [2][6][7] - The US currently has about 1000GW of stable power supply with a reserve margin of only 20%, indicating a tight electricity supply situation. The report emphasizes that the construction of new power sources is lagging behind demand, necessitating increased investment in both power generation and grid infrastructure [2][6][7] Company Analysis: XGIMI Technology (688696.SH) - XGIMI reported Q3 2025 revenue of 700 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with a net profit of -10 million yuan, improving from -40 million yuan in the same period last year. The gross margin was 30.6%, up 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [12][14] - The company is expected to see a turning point in Q4, with improvements in both domestic and international sales. The domestic market is stabilizing, and international sales are anticipated to recover as the new overseas team adjusts [12][14] Company Analysis: Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH) - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 118.08 billion yuan, down 12.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 12.71 billion yuan, down 27.2%. In Q3 alone, revenue was 40.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.0% year-on-year but an increase of 6.0% quarter-on-quarter [15][16] - The report notes a recovery in coal prices during Q3, which positively impacted the company's performance. The company is focusing on its coal-electricity integration strategy to enhance stability and profitability [15][18] Company Analysis: China Life Insurance (601628.SH) - China Life reported Q3 2025 revenue of 298.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.8%, and a net profit of 126.9 billion yuan, up 91.5%. This strong performance contributed to a year-to-date revenue growth of 25.9% and net profit growth of 60.5% [21][23] - The company has seen a significant improvement in new policy sales, with a year-on-year growth of 52.5% in Q3. The net asset value increased by 22.8% year-to-date, reflecting strong operational performance [21][24] Company Analysis: Yuanhang Precision (920914.BJ) - Yuanhang Precision achieved revenue of 769 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27%. In Q3, revenue was 283 million yuan, up 29% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter [27][28] - The company is focusing on the development of ultra-thin nickel-based materials to meet the demands of high-precision applications in the new energy sector, indicating a strong growth potential in this area [27][30]

Core Insights - The company has been involved in the fuel cell sector for several years, offering products such as isolated fuel cell DC/DC systems with power coverage from 90kW to 300kW and an overall efficiency of 97%-98% [2] - The company's fuel cell products have been successfully applied in various fields, including rail transportation, ground power generation, marine applications, and heavy-duty trucks [2] - In the SOFC (Solid Oxide Fuel Cell) business, the company provides supporting power products to major domestic manufacturers, including Weichai Group [2]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Fuan Energy (002911.SZ) surged by 10.02% to reach 14.05 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 18.2 billion CNY, driven by positive developments in the SOFC and green methanol sectors [2][3]. Group 1: SOFC Business - Fuan Energy's SOFC business is gaining attention following a significant $5 billion collaboration between Brookfield Asset Management and Bloom Energy, which is expected to enhance SOFC market expectations [3][4]. - Despite the growing interest, Fuan Energy's SOFC revenue contribution is minimal, accounting for less than 0.1% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, with reported revenue of 11.5 million CNY [4][5]. - The company is currently in the prototype testing phase for its 50kW SOFC system and is actively working on a 300kW demonstration project [4]. Group 2: Green Methanol Business - Fuan Energy's joint venture, VENEX, has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Veolia and Shanghai Port Group to develop a comprehensive green methanol supply and distribution network [7]. - The company has achieved a production capacity of 50,000 tons per year for green methanol through a partnership with Hong Kong China Gas, with 6,000 tons delivered from January to May 2025 [7]. - A strategic cooperation agreement with Hong Kong China Gas involves a total planned investment of 10 billion CNY to establish green methanol production bases across various regions, targeting a total capacity of 1 million tons per year [7].

Company Overview - The report highlights Xizi Clean Energy (西子洁能) as a leading company in the waste heat boiler sector, with a domestic market share exceeding 50% and a cumulative supply of over 450 units, adapting to major global turbine brands like GE and Siemens [10] - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, with foreign sales accounting for 13.82% of revenue in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 48.79% [10] Business Segments - Xizi Clean Energy is focusing on the development of molten salt energy storage technology, having participated in multiple demonstration projects, positioning itself as a pioneer in this field [10] - The company is also advancing in the nuclear power sector, with over 20 years of experience and licenses for manufacturing nuclear equipment, aiming to expand into third and fourth generation nuclear power and controlled nuclear fusion [10] - The report mentions the company's strategic investment in solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC), which have high efficiency and versatility in fuel usage, enhancing its renewable energy ecosystem [10] Financial Projections - The report projects Xizi Clean Energy's net profit attributable to shareholders to be 443 million, 510 million, and 604 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 28, 24, and 20 times [3] - A comparative analysis with similar companies indicates an average PE of 33 times for 2025, leading to an "Outperform" rating for Xizi Clean Energy [3] Industry Insights - The report discusses new national standards for polysilicon energy consumption, tightening the energy consumption limits significantly, which may lead to the forced shutdown or consolidation of high-energy-consuming production capacities [9][12] - The new standards are expected to accelerate the exit of outdated production capacities, with a 12-month transition period for companies to comply [12] - The report suggests that polysilicon prices may remain strong due to the need for companies to achieve breakeven at lower operating rates, and it recommends monitoring companies like GCL-Poly Energy and Tongwei Co., Ltd. [12]

Market Overview - The market experienced a pullback last Friday, with all three major indices closing lower. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.43%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.09% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.52 trillion yuan, an increase of 83.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as non-ferrous metals, storage chips, and film and television saw significant gains, while large financials, liquor, and gaming sectors faced notable declines [1] Analyst Insights Huatai Securities - Huatai Securities suggests a return to value and growth dynamics, focusing on domestic computing power chains, innovative pharmaceuticals, and robotics [2] - The firm notes that the A-share market has shown resilience after a brief profit-taking phase, with active trading and a positive medium-term outlook for the domestic economy [2] CITIC Construction Investment - CITIC Construction Investment continues to be bullish on the energy storage and lithium battery sectors, highlighting recent price adjustments in Shandong and capacity pricing in Ningxia as positive indicators for investment [3] - The firm emphasizes the importance of monitoring future demand forecasts for 2026 and ongoing policy support for the lithium battery sector [3] Kaiyuan Securities - Kaiyuan Securities indicates that the innovative pharmaceutical sector is entering a rapid growth phase, with Chinese biotech companies expected to maintain stable revenue growth and reduced net losses by mid-2025 [4] - The firm recommends focusing on seven promising innovative drug sectors over the next 6-12 months, which are poised for significant market opportunities [4]

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 2.794 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.49%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 148 million yuan, down 56.81% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.581 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.90%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 94 million yuan, an increase of 11.37% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The company optimized its order structure, achieving new orders of 2.784 billion yuan in H1 2025, with significant contributions from waste heat boilers (703 million yuan), clean energy equipment (281 million yuan), solutions (1.477 billion yuan), and spare parts and services (323 million yuan) [2] - As of June 30, 2025, the company had a backlog of orders amounting to 6.119 billion yuan, indicating a focus on enhancing order quality and structure for high-quality business development [2] Group 3 - The company is expanding into future growth markets such as solar thermal and nuclear power, having developed a large-capacity molten salt heat exchanger and steam generation system for solar thermal applications, achieving optimal performance metrics compared to global peers [2] - The company is upgrading its manufacturing capabilities for nuclear power products at its Chongxian manufacturing base, aiming to capitalize on opportunities in the nuclear power market [2] Group 4 - The subsidiary Zhejiang Zhentai Energy has independently developed core technology for solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC), addressing reliability, consistency, startup speed, and thermal shock resistance issues, with performance metrics meeting or exceeding international standards [3] - The company is positioned as a leader in the waste heat boiler industry, with an optimized order backlog and potential growth in solar thermal, nuclear power, and SOFC markets, projecting net profits of 441 million, 486 million, and 568 million yuan for 2025-2027 [3]

Group 1: Power Equipment - The AIDC sector continues to show strong sentiment, with companies disclosing new product developments such as SST and HVDC, leading to valuation premiums for new technologies [2] - The high demand for AIDC is expected to persist, with a focus on the release of high-pressure equipment and the extension of the high-pressure equipment boom cycle due to the Yaxia project [2] - Exports in the power transformer sector are projected to grow over 40% in the first half of 2025, driven by strong overseas demand [2] Group 2: Lithium Battery - Opportunities in the lithium battery sector arise from the upcoming peak season and unexpected growth in energy storage, with many stocks being key components of the ChiNext board [4] - The focus is on low-valuation leading companies with stable performance, as well as elastic stocks like 6F that are expected to see price increases [4] Group 3: Photovoltaics - The implementation of the Pricing Law supports the photovoltaic industry chain, ensuring that sales do not fall below full cost, thus providing strong price support [8] - From September, silicon material production and sales will be limited, with expectations for stable output and restricted sales, leading to a potential narrowing of losses for companies with sufficient inventory [8] - The industry's profitability is expected to improve, contingent on unexpected changes in supply and demand dynamics [8] Group 4: Energy Storage - Companies with strong performance in the energy storage sector are expected to maintain their momentum, supported by recent capacity pricing policies and favorable long-term demand from new energy sources [12] Group 5: Wind Power - The wind power sector has shown recovery in profitability, with most major turbine manufacturers entering a recovery phase, and turbine prices have increased by 5-10% since November 2024 [13] - Component manufacturers have reported significant growth in Q2, confirming the high demand in the industry [13] - The offshore wind sector is expected to see high growth in installations, driven by successful project advancements [13] Group 6: Hydrogen Energy - North American SOFC leaders are transitioning from 1GW to 2GW production capacity, with a strong outlook for stock price growth due to high visibility of future orders [15] - Long-term cost reductions in SOFC technology are anticipated to enhance its economic advantages, potentially increasing market penetration significantly [15] Group 7: Robotics - The human-shaped robot sector has seen a decline in short-term interest, but future developments are expected as new technologies and supply chains mature [15] - Domestic applications are anticipated to see growth as automation solutions are implemented in production lines, with significant developments expected by the end of 2025 [15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the report [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience optimistic performance in 2012, driven by stable order volumes and high demand in the waste heat boiler industry [1]. - The company has achieved a new order of 2.784 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a focus on optimizing order structure to support high-quality business development [3]. - The company is actively expanding into the SOFC and nuclear power sectors, indicating a strategic shift towards new growth areas [3][4]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.794 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.49%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 148 million yuan, down 56.81% [1]. - The adjusted net profit for H1 2025 was 129 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 37.58% [1]. - The gross margin for equipment manufacturing improved to 20.55%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Order and Market Development - The company has a backlog of orders amounting to 6.119 billion yuan as of June 30, 2025, with a focus on enhancing order quality and structure [3]. - Key market expansion areas include new energy markets leveraging molten salt storage technology, nuclear power, and international markets [3][4]. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 7.171 billion yuan, 7.929 billion yuan, and 8.501 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 11.4%, 10.6%, and 7.2% [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 465 million yuan, 476 million yuan, and 517 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 5.8%, 2.4%, and 8.4% [6].