商 品 研 究 2025 年 08 月 25 日 工业硅：市场情绪提振 多晶硅：区间震荡，以逢低做多为主 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【宏观及行业新闻】 光伏头条获悉，8 月 22 日，华电集团 2025-2026 年光伏组件集中采购开标。该项目分为两个标段，其 中标段一采购 N 型 TOPCon 组件，规模为 18GW，标段二采购 N 型 TOPCon、BC、HJT 组件，规模为 2GW。根 据开标结果，标段一共有 49 家企业参与投标，投标报价 0.646~0.751 元/W，均价 0.71 元/W；标段二共 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） Si2511成交量（手） | 8,745 620,638 | 110 -38,437 | -60 77,521 | - ...

8 月 22 日公司披露 2025 年中报，上半年实现营收 405 亿元， 同比-7.5%，实现归母净利润-50.29 亿元，同比亏损加深；其中 Q2 实现营收 246 亿元，同比+1.4%，实现归母净利润-23.6 亿元，同 比基本持平，环比 Q1(-25.93 亿)略改善。 多晶硅成本持续下降，"反内卷"推动价格上涨、盈利修复。 上半年公司实现多晶硅销售 16.13 万吨，全球市占率约 30%，位居 行业第一。公司持续进行成本及品质优化，N 型出货比例 90%以上， 硅耗降至 1.04 kg/kg-Si 以内，蒸汽基本实现零消耗，N 型料体金 属降至 0.1ppbw 以内，表金属降至 0.2ppbw 以内，显著领先行业。 Q2 多晶硅价格处于下跌趋势，测算多晶硅环节单位亏损有所加深。 光伏行业"反内卷"扎实推进，7 月起多晶硅价格显著上涨，截至 8 月 20 日 N 型致密料均价 4.45 万元/吨，较前期低点上涨 39%， 后续价格有望逐步覆盖全成本，带动多晶硅环节盈利修复。 组件市场渠道不断突破，海外市场销量爆发式增长。上半年 公司实现组件销售 24.52GW，其中国内分布式出货保持全国第一， 集中式 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a downturn after a brief surge in demand due to policy incentives, with prices declining significantly across the supply chain [2][12]. Group 1: Market Trends - In the first half of the year, the photovoltaic industry saw a "rush to install" driven by policies like the "136 Document," but this has since subsided, leading to a decline in prices [2]. - As of July 2, the average trading price of dense silicon material is approximately 35 yuan/kg, down 2.7% month-on-month and over 10% compared to the beginning of the year, with a year-on-year decline of 46.2% [3]. - The average trading price of N-type 182-183.75mm silicon wafers is currently 0.88 yuan/piece, down 7.4% month-on-month and 58% compared to the beginning of the year [5][6]. Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - Major silicon material manufacturers are struggling to secure orders due to low prices, leading to a continuous decline in market averages [5]. - The "six giants" in the silicon material sector are reportedly considering a special fund to consolidate existing production capacity, indicating some progress in industry integration [5]. - The average trading price of N-type 182-183.75mm TOPCon battery cells is 0.23 yuan/W, reflecting an 8% month-on-month drop and a 51.1% decline since the beginning of the year [10]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The photovoltaic industry is facing significant challenges, including overcapacity and a lack of clear policies following the "531 rush," which has led to a pessimistic outlook for downstream investment [12][14]. - The Central Financial Committee has emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and promote the exit of outdated production capacity [14]. - The industry is urged to break the "involution" cycle to achieve high-quality development, as highlighted in recent discussions and reports [13][14].

Group 1: Company Operations and Technology - The company currently has a total energy storage capacity of approximately 1500 MWh, primarily supporting photovoltaic power stations, including lithium iron phosphate, all-vanadium flow, and supercapacitor storage types [2] - The main technology for the company's operational power stations is TOPCon, with pilot projects using HJT technology and plans to trial BC and perovskite components as needed [3] Group 2: Financial Performance and Dividends - In 2024, the company received a total of 1.366 billion CNY in electricity subsidies, with 1.233 billion CNY from national subsidies [3] - The company has distributed approximately 1.512 billion CNY in cash dividends over the past three years, with a dividend payout ratio averaging 36% of annual net profit attributable to shareholders [3] Group 3: International Expansion - The company is in discussions with relevant departments in Sri Lanka, Indonesia, and Uzbekistan, with some projects having signed MOUs [3] - Future plans include accelerating investment in overseas photovoltaic projects, focusing on development and acquisition in countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative [3] Group 4: Information Disclosure Compliance - The company adhered to information disclosure management regulations during the investor meeting, ensuring no significant undisclosed information was leaked [3]

Industry Overview - The renewable energy industry is expected to enter a mature phase after 2024, maintaining steady growth annually [2] - The solar energy market is characterized as a value-driven market starting from this year and extending for decades [2] Company Performance - Aiko Solar has signed approximately 2GW of new orders for components, covering both centralized and distributed application scenarios [2] - The company has experienced a significant improvement in gross profit in April and May of this year [2] - Aiko Solar's overall order fulfillment rate is currently between 80% and 90% [2] Market Dynamics - The BC component technology is gaining recognition and expanding its market presence, with several manufacturers showcasing new products [3] - There is a shift in perception regarding BC technology, with increasing acknowledgment of its high value [3] - The competition among N-type battery technologies (TOPCon, BC, HJT) is seen as less meaningful, as all have their advantages in different scenarios [3] Strategic Focus - Aiko Solar aims to focus on product structure adjustments and transition towards high-value markets and products [4] - The company is working to improve operational efficiency, targeting an inventory turnover rate of less than 30 days, including shipping time [4] - Reducing the debt ratio is a key objective, with a target to lower it below 75% this year [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [5]. Core Insights - The overall scale of the industry remains stable, with a decrease in enthusiasm leading to differentiation among companies [12][19]. - Policy expectations are anticipated to strengthen further, driven by public statements from industry leaders [22][23]. - New technologies, particularly BC technology, are gaining attention, while other routes are progressing steadily [26][28]. - Auxiliary materials and equipment are advancing with BC and TOPCon modifications, contributing to efficiency improvements [46][62]. - Inverters are evolving, with a focus on commercial storage solutions and continued iterations in large-scale storage [67][82]. Summary by Sections Overall - The scale of the industry is stable with over 3,500 participating companies and more than 500,000 attendees, showing no significant change from 2024 [19]. - There is a noticeable decrease in overall enthusiasm, with some exhibition spaces left vacant, indicating a divergence in interest between leading and smaller companies [19]. Policy - Industry leaders are actively promoting policy implementation, with initial solutions proposed to address the "internal competition" in the silicon material sector [23]. - The asset-liability ratio in the photovoltaic main industry chain has shown a significant increase, indicating financial pressures [24]. New Technologies - The HIBC technology from Longi has achieved a standard module power of over 700W, while Aiko's ABC modules have a double-sided rate of 80% ± 5% [28]. - The TOPCon route focuses on efficiency improvements, with leading companies showcasing modules with power ratings up to 670W and conversion efficiencies of 24.8% [33]. - HJT technology is also advancing, with Tongwei's HJT module reaching a power output of 790.8W, marking a significant achievement in the sector [41]. Auxiliary Materials & Equipment - Leading manufacturers are launching BC-specific products, including low-weight encapsulation films and high-reflectivity black materials [46]. - The introduction of low-cost metal solutions is becoming a trend, with companies like Jingsilver and Shanghai Silver Paste showcasing their innovations [52]. - Equipment for TOPCon modifications is gaining traction, with edge passivation becoming a mainstream technology [62]. Inverters - The focus on commercial storage products is evident, with new high-power products being prominently displayed at the SNEC exhibition [67]. - The latest large-scale storage solutions, such as the PowerTitan3.0 from Sungrow, feature significant upgrades in capacity and efficiency [82].

Core Insights - The EU's decision to impose a 15% temporary tariff on Chinese photovoltaic components in May 2025 coincides with China's launch of the world's largest energy storage system construction plan, indicating a significant shift in the global industrial landscape [1][3] - China is leveraging its manufacturing advantages and energy transition strategy to create a "green channel" in response to trade barriers set by Europe and the US, thus reshaping global supply chains [1][3] Group 1: EU Tariff and China's Response - The EU's tariff policy is based on a strategic misjudgment, as Chinese photovoltaic components hold a 70% global market share and lead in high-end technology by 5 to 8 years [3][4] - The cost of Chinese HJT components is 0.95 yuan/W, while European TOPCon components are 0.85 yuan/W, but Chinese products outperform in efficiency and lifespan by over 20% [3][4] - If the EU maintains its tariff policy, the cost of domestic photovoltaic installations will rise by 18%, delaying carbon reduction targets by at least three years [4] Group 2: China's Energy Storage Initiatives - In response to EU tariffs, Chinese state-owned enterprises have initiated over 50GWh of energy storage system procurement projects, achieving a renewable energy consumption rate of over 95% [7] - China's energy storage systems are reported to cost only one-third of those from European and American companies, which will significantly alter global electricity market competition [7][10] - By 2025, China's new energy storage installations are projected to reach 58.61GW/137.86GWh, with successful pilot projects in regions like Tibet and Hubei [7] Group 3: Global Impact of Chinese Technology - China's advancements in energy storage technology allow for independent energy systems in remote areas, providing low-cost and reliable energy solutions to countries along the Belt and Road Initiative [10][11] - The complete supply chain in energy storage, including battery cells and system integration, has positioned China as a leader, with a market share of over 76% in large-capacity battery cells [10] - Chinese companies are setting global energy storage technology standards, with the "Grid-Connected Energy Storage System Technical Specification" adopted by the International Electrotechnical Commission [10][13] Group 4: Strategic Differences and Global Governance - The clash between EU tariffs and Chinese energy storage technology represents a fundamental competition between two industrial logics, with China promoting a new model of international cooperation through "new energy and infrastructure" [11][13] - China's approach not only addresses energy shortages in developing countries but also offers a new path for global governance that balances efficiency and equity [13][15] - As Western nations grapple with trade protectionism, China is using renewable energy to redefine the global industrial landscape, showcasing its manufacturing prowess and commitment to sustainable development [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and strategies of Huasheng New Energy in the photovoltaic industry, particularly focusing on the establishment of the "760W+ Club" to address industry competition and price stabilization while exploring new market opportunities [1][4][7]. Group 1: Company Performance and Strategies - In 2023, Huasheng New Energy achieved operational profitability and completed over 4 billion yuan in financing, totaling more than 5 billion yuan since its establishment three years ago [2]. - The company is adjusting its production strategy in response to a significant price drop across the photovoltaic supply chain in 2024, including reducing output and exploring new markets [3][4]. - Huasheng New Energy's HJT (Heterojunction) technology is positioned to maintain a competitive edge, with current pricing around 0.85 yuan/W, while other technologies like TOPCon and BC continue to decline [4][8]. Group 2: Industry Collaboration and Market Dynamics - The "760W+ Club" was formed by HJT manufacturers to collaborate on supply chain integration, brand building, technical cooperation, and market sales, aiming to reduce costs and enhance efficiency [7]. - The club holds monthly roundtable meetings to facilitate communication among member companies, focusing on sales strategies and technical advancements [7]. - HJT module bidding capacity reached 13.56 GW in 2024, a 333% increase year-on-year, indicating a growing market share for HJT technology [8]. Group 3: Technological Advancements and Market Expansion - Huasheng New Energy is transitioning from SMBB (Multi-busbar) to 0BB technology to reduce production costs and improve efficiency [11]. - The company is also exploring vertical installation of photovoltaic panels, which maximizes the advantages of HJT technology and minimizes land use, potentially becoming a significant market post-531 policy [12]. - The carbon footprint of HJT technology is currently around 366 gCO2eq/W, with plans to reduce it below 300 gCO2eq/W, enhancing its appeal in low-carbon markets [13].

Core Viewpoint - The solar industry, particularly companies like Huasheng New Energy, is facing significant challenges due to a sharp decline in prices across the entire photovoltaic supply chain in 2024, leading to production cuts and layoffs among first and second-tier firms [2][3]. Group 1: Company Performance and Adjustments - Huasheng New Energy has achieved operational profitability in 2023 and raised over 4 billion yuan in financing, totaling over 5 billion yuan since its establishment three years ago [1]. - The company is adjusting its strategies by reducing production, joining industry alliances, and exploring new markets to navigate the current challenges [3]. - The establishment of the "760W+ Club" aims to stabilize pricing and address internal competition among HJT manufacturers, with current pricing around 0.85 yuan/W for HJT products [3][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Technology - HJT technology is gaining traction, with a reported 333% year-on-year increase in HJT component bidding capacity, reaching 13.56 GW [6]. - HJT components are priced higher than TOPCon, with a potential profit increase of 1.356 billion yuan for every penny increase in price [6]. - The company is transitioning to 0BB technology to reduce production costs while maintaining competitive pricing with TOPCon products [7]. Group 3: Innovation and Market Expansion - Huasheng New Energy is exploring vertical installation of solar panels, which maximizes the efficiency of HJT technology while minimizing land use [8]. - The company has established a dedicated solutions department to promote vertical power generation, which is expected to gain traction post-531 policy [8]. - The carbon footprint of HJT technology is currently around 366 gCO2eq/W, with plans to reduce it below 300 gCO2eq/W [9].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is focusing on enhancing operational capabilities and expanding overseas markets, with companies like Jingang Photovoltaics leading the way in HJT technology and international collaborations [1][4]. Group 1: Company Developments - Jingang Photovoltaics signed a strategic cooperation agreement with South Africa's AKANI Group on May 16, focusing on distributed photovoltaic applications, localized component production, and centralized power station development [1]. - The partnership was preceded by a thorough inspection of Jingang's production processes by AKANI, highlighting the interest in heterojunction (HJT) technology [1]. - Jingang Photovoltaics is one of the few companies in China capable of large-scale production of heterojunction solar cells, achieving a conversion efficiency of 26% and module power output exceeding 730W [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - The market for heterojunction solar cells is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating an increase in market share from 2.6% in 2023 to 34.3% by 2030 [2]. - The global market for heterojunction solar cells is anticipated to reach $6.67 billion by 2030, reflecting a strong and sustainable growth trend [2]. Group 3: Industry Position - China's photovoltaic industry holds a 44% share of the global market, showcasing its competitive advantages in technology, efficiency, and cost [4]. - Jingang Photovoltaics is actively expanding its international presence, with products already exported to countries including India, Singapore, Germany, and Italy [4]. - The company aims to deepen partnerships globally, focusing on markets in Africa, Europe, and the Middle East, while contributing to the global energy revolution [4].