Core Viewpoint - Guolian Minsheng's recent report highlights that Dongfang Risen is optimizing its product structure and accelerating the iteration of N-type high-efficiency capacity, which is expected to enhance its core competitiveness by mid-2025 [1] Company Summary - As of August 27, 2025, Dongfang Risen's HJT cell conversion efficiency has surpassed 26.60%, while HJT module conversion efficiency has exceeded 24.70%. The non-silicon cost of HJT cells has been reduced to 0.15 yuan/W [1] - Dongfang Risen's energy storage system business is advancing in tandem with its photovoltaic power station operations, focusing on large-scale energy storage systems primarily targeting key markets in Europe and the United States, maintaining a global record of zero safety incidents [1] - The company is actively expanding its commercial distributed photovoltaic power station business, with integrated solutions for "solar storage" and "solar storage charging," as well as smart microgrid solutions that have achieved commercial application [1] Industry Outlook - The report suggests that Dongfang Risen is a leading player in the HJT sector, with superior technology research and capacity reserves compared to the industry, and is expected to gradually recover its performance as the fundamentals of the photovoltaic industry improve, warranting attention [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating challenges in the solar energy market and increased competition [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 7.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -680 million yuan, an improvement from -960 million yuan in the same period last year [1]. - For Q2 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 4.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.4%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 48.9%, with a net profit of -410 million yuan [1]. - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 3.1%, down 5.9 percentage points year-on-year, while Q2's gross profit margin was 1.5%, down 8.3 percentage points year-on-year and 3.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. Group 2: Business Segments - The solar cell and module business generated revenue of 3.81 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 54.0%, with a gross margin of -4.5%, down 11.5 percentage points [2]. - The module business alone accounted for 3.75 billion yuan in revenue, also down 54.1% year-on-year, with sales volume of 5.7 GW, a decrease of 28% [2]. - The company is a leader in the HJT sector, optimizing product structure and accelerating the iteration of N-type high-efficiency capacity, achieving a cell conversion efficiency of over 26.60% and module efficiency of over 24.70% by August 27, 2025 [2]. Group 3: Energy Storage and Photovoltaic Integration - The energy storage system, lighting, and auxiliary photovoltaic products generated revenue of 480 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, with a gross margin of 18.2%, down 8.0 percentage points [3]. - The energy storage integration business focuses on large-scale systems primarily targeting the European and American markets, maintaining a record of zero safety incidents globally [3]. - The company is actively developing commercial distributed photovoltaic power station businesses, with integrated "solar-storage" and "solar-storage-charging" solutions already commercialized [3]. Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestions - The company faces intensified industry competition, impacting shipment scale and profitability, with projected revenues of 16.19 billion yuan, 21.53 billion yuan, and 28.20 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -20.0%, 33.0%, and 31.0% respectively [4]. - Expected net profits for the same period are -830 million yuan, 430 million yuan, and 1.20 billion yuan, indicating a narrowing loss, a return to profitability, and a growth rate of 176.2% [4]. - The company is positioned as a leading HJT enterprise with advanced R&D and capacity reserves, likely to benefit from improvements in the photovoltaic industry fundamentals [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - The report gives an optimistic outlook for industrial silicon, stating that market sentiment is boosted, and suggests a strategy of "buying on dips" for polysilicon, which is expected to trade in a range [1]. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, profit, inventory, and raw material costs, and believes that industrial silicon market sentiment is positive while polysilicon is in a range - bound pattern [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2511 (industrial silicon) closed at 8,745 yuan/ton with a volume of 620,638 lots and an open interest of 279,381 lots; PS2511 (polysilicon) closed at 51,405 yuan/ton with a volume of 445,445 lots and an open interest of 142,397 lots [1]. - **Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot premium/discount varies with different benchmarks, and polysilicon's spot premium/discount (against N - type re - input) is - 2405 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8450 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 9850 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - input material is 49000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Profit**: Silicon plant profits in Xinjiang and Yunnan are negative, at - 2556 yuan/ton and - 3251 yuan/ton respectively; polysilicon enterprise profit is - 15.7 yuan/kg [1]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory is 54.3 million tons, enterprise inventory is 17.5 million tons, and total industry inventory is 71.8 million tons; polysilicon's manufacturer inventory is 24.9 million tons [1]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes are provided, with some showing no change recently [1]. - **Polysilicon (Photovoltaic)**: The prices of related products like silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and photovoltaic glass are given, with some prices rising and some falling [1]. - **Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy**: DMC price is 10750 yuan/ton with a negative profit of - 1225 yuan/ton; ADC12 price is 20450 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is - 260 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On August 22, 2025, Huadian Group's 2025 - 2026 photovoltaic module centralized procurement was bid - opened. The first bid section for N - type TOPCon modules has a scale of 18GW with an average bid price of 0.71 yuan/W, and the second bid section for N - type TOPCon, BC, and HJT modules has a scale of 2GW with an average bid price of 0.746 yuan/W [1][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is both 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly - positive outlook [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, considering it as one of the potential beneficiaries of the ongoing "anti-involution" in the industry [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 40.5 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -5.029 billion RMB, indicating a deeper loss compared to the previous year [1]. - The company achieved a sales volume of 161,300 tons of polysilicon, holding a global market share of approximately 30%, leading the industry. The price of polysilicon has seen a significant increase of 39% from its previous low, which is expected to gradually cover costs and restore profitability [2]. - The company sold 24.52 GW of solar modules in the first half of the year, with explosive growth in overseas markets, particularly in Poland, Romania, and Hungary [2]. - The company maintained its position as the global leader in battery cell sales, with a volume of 49.89 GW, and continues to lead in key competitive metrics such as A-grade ratio and conversion efficiency [3]. - The company has sufficient cash reserves, totaling approximately 33.229 billion RMB, which supports its ability to navigate through market cycles [3]. Financial Forecast - The forecast for the company's net profit attributable to shareholders has been adjusted to -6.16 billion RMB for 2025, 2.972 billion RMB for 2026, and 6.071 billion RMB for 2027, reflecting the competitive advantages in the silicon and battery segments [4]. - Revenue projections for 2023 are set at 139.104 billion RMB, with a growth rate of -2.33% for 2024 and a recovery expected in subsequent years [8]. - The diluted earnings per share are projected to be -1.563 RMB in 2024, improving to 0.660 RMB in 2026 and 1.348 RMB in 2027 [8].

Core Insights - The photovoltaic module bidding scale reached 4.62GW in July 2025, with a significant share of N-type modules [1][2] - The bidding price range for photovoltaic modules was between 0.608-0.74 yuan/W, with an average price of 0.701 yuan/W [2][4] - Delivery periods are primarily set for August to October, with some projects extending to 2026 [5] Bidding Results - The disclosed bidding results for July 2025 show a total scale of 4.62GW, including a confirmed scale of 1.39GW, with the first bidder's scale at 3.23GW [2] - The confirmed scale for N-type modules reached 3.35GW, mainly driven by a 3GW procurement project from China Railway Construction [2][4] - Ten companies, including LONGi, Jinko, Trina Solar, and others, successfully entered the bidding [2] Price Trends - The bidding price for N-type modules ranged from 0.701 to 0.74 yuan/W, with an average of 0.715 yuan/W [4] - TOPCon module prices remained stable at or above 0.70 yuan/W, showing a slight increase due to policy and cost pressures [4] - The lowest bid was from Hebei Haopan Environmental Technology at 0.608 yuan/W, while the highest was from Chint New Energy at 0.74 yuan/W [2][4] Delivery Schedule - Most projects have a concentrated delivery window from August to October 2025, with some extending delivery deadlines to 2026 [5] - Projects like those from Huadian Group and Guangdong Energy Group have set their delivery periods within this timeframe [5] - Some projects are adopting phased delivery methods to accommodate immediate needs and long-term cooperation [5]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a downturn after a brief surge in demand due to policy incentives, with prices declining significantly across the supply chain [2][12]. Group 1: Market Trends - In the first half of the year, the photovoltaic industry saw a "rush to install" driven by policies like the "136 Document," but this has since subsided, leading to a decline in prices [2]. - As of July 2, the average trading price of dense silicon material is approximately 35 yuan/kg, down 2.7% month-on-month and over 10% compared to the beginning of the year, with a year-on-year decline of 46.2% [3]. - The average trading price of N-type 182-183.75mm silicon wafers is currently 0.88 yuan/piece, down 7.4% month-on-month and 58% compared to the beginning of the year [5][6]. Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - Major silicon material manufacturers are struggling to secure orders due to low prices, leading to a continuous decline in market averages [5]. - The "six giants" in the silicon material sector are reportedly considering a special fund to consolidate existing production capacity, indicating some progress in industry integration [5]. - The average trading price of N-type 182-183.75mm TOPCon battery cells is 0.23 yuan/W, reflecting an 8% month-on-month drop and a 51.1% decline since the beginning of the year [10]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The photovoltaic industry is facing significant challenges, including overcapacity and a lack of clear policies following the "531 rush," which has led to a pessimistic outlook for downstream investment [12][14]. - The Central Financial Committee has emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and promote the exit of outdated production capacity [14]. - The industry is urged to break the "involution" cycle to achieve high-quality development, as highlighted in recent discussions and reports [13][14].

Group 1: Company Operations and Technology - The company currently has a total energy storage capacity of approximately 1500 MWh, primarily supporting photovoltaic power stations, including lithium iron phosphate, all-vanadium flow, and supercapacitor storage types [2] - The main technology for the company's operational power stations is TOPCon, with pilot projects using HJT technology and plans to trial BC and perovskite components as needed [3] Group 2: Financial Performance and Dividends - In 2024, the company received a total of 1.366 billion CNY in electricity subsidies, with 1.233 billion CNY from national subsidies [3] - The company has distributed approximately 1.512 billion CNY in cash dividends over the past three years, with a dividend payout ratio averaging 36% of annual net profit attributable to shareholders [3] Group 3: International Expansion - The company is in discussions with relevant departments in Sri Lanka, Indonesia, and Uzbekistan, with some projects having signed MOUs [3] - Future plans include accelerating investment in overseas photovoltaic projects, focusing on development and acquisition in countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative [3] Group 4: Information Disclosure Compliance - The company adhered to information disclosure management regulations during the investor meeting, ensuring no significant undisclosed information was leaked [3]

Industry Overview - The renewable energy industry is expected to enter a mature phase after 2024, maintaining steady growth annually [2] - The solar energy market is characterized as a value-driven market starting from this year and extending for decades [2] Company Performance - Aiko Solar has signed approximately 2GW of new orders for components, covering both centralized and distributed application scenarios [2] - The company has experienced a significant improvement in gross profit in April and May of this year [2] - Aiko Solar's overall order fulfillment rate is currently between 80% and 90% [2] Market Dynamics - The BC component technology is gaining recognition and expanding its market presence, with several manufacturers showcasing new products [3] - There is a shift in perception regarding BC technology, with increasing acknowledgment of its high value [3] - The competition among N-type battery technologies (TOPCon, BC, HJT) is seen as less meaningful, as all have their advantages in different scenarios [3] Strategic Focus - Aiko Solar aims to focus on product structure adjustments and transition towards high-value markets and products [4] - The company is working to improve operational efficiency, targeting an inventory turnover rate of less than 30 days, including shipping time [4] - Reducing the debt ratio is a key objective, with a target to lower it below 75% this year [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [5]. Core Insights - The overall scale of the industry remains stable, with a decrease in enthusiasm leading to differentiation among companies [12][19]. - Policy expectations are anticipated to strengthen further, driven by public statements from industry leaders [22][23]. - New technologies, particularly BC technology, are gaining attention, while other routes are progressing steadily [26][28]. - Auxiliary materials and equipment are advancing with BC and TOPCon modifications, contributing to efficiency improvements [46][62]. - Inverters are evolving, with a focus on commercial storage solutions and continued iterations in large-scale storage [67][82]. Summary by Sections Overall - The scale of the industry is stable with over 3,500 participating companies and more than 500,000 attendees, showing no significant change from 2024 [19]. - There is a noticeable decrease in overall enthusiasm, with some exhibition spaces left vacant, indicating a divergence in interest between leading and smaller companies [19]. Policy - Industry leaders are actively promoting policy implementation, with initial solutions proposed to address the "internal competition" in the silicon material sector [23]. - The asset-liability ratio in the photovoltaic main industry chain has shown a significant increase, indicating financial pressures [24]. New Technologies - The HIBC technology from Longi has achieved a standard module power of over 700W, while Aiko's ABC modules have a double-sided rate of 80% ± 5% [28]. - The TOPCon route focuses on efficiency improvements, with leading companies showcasing modules with power ratings up to 670W and conversion efficiencies of 24.8% [33]. - HJT technology is also advancing, with Tongwei's HJT module reaching a power output of 790.8W, marking a significant achievement in the sector [41]. Auxiliary Materials & Equipment - Leading manufacturers are launching BC-specific products, including low-weight encapsulation films and high-reflectivity black materials [46]. - The introduction of low-cost metal solutions is becoming a trend, with companies like Jingsilver and Shanghai Silver Paste showcasing their innovations [52]. - Equipment for TOPCon modifications is gaining traction, with edge passivation becoming a mainstream technology [62]. Inverters - The focus on commercial storage products is evident, with new high-power products being prominently displayed at the SNEC exhibition [67]. - The latest large-scale storage solutions, such as the PowerTitan3.0 from Sungrow, feature significant upgrades in capacity and efficiency [82].

Core Insights - The EU's decision to impose a 15% temporary tariff on Chinese photovoltaic components in May 2025 coincides with China's launch of the world's largest energy storage system construction plan, indicating a significant shift in the global industrial landscape [1][3] - China is leveraging its manufacturing advantages and energy transition strategy to create a "green channel" in response to trade barriers set by Europe and the US, thus reshaping global supply chains [1][3] Group 1: EU Tariff and China's Response - The EU's tariff policy is based on a strategic misjudgment, as Chinese photovoltaic components hold a 70% global market share and lead in high-end technology by 5 to 8 years [3][4] - The cost of Chinese HJT components is 0.95 yuan/W, while European TOPCon components are 0.85 yuan/W, but Chinese products outperform in efficiency and lifespan by over 20% [3][4] - If the EU maintains its tariff policy, the cost of domestic photovoltaic installations will rise by 18%, delaying carbon reduction targets by at least three years [4] Group 2: China's Energy Storage Initiatives - In response to EU tariffs, Chinese state-owned enterprises have initiated over 50GWh of energy storage system procurement projects, achieving a renewable energy consumption rate of over 95% [7] - China's energy storage systems are reported to cost only one-third of those from European and American companies, which will significantly alter global electricity market competition [7][10] - By 2025, China's new energy storage installations are projected to reach 58.61GW/137.86GWh, with successful pilot projects in regions like Tibet and Hubei [7] Group 3: Global Impact of Chinese Technology - China's advancements in energy storage technology allow for independent energy systems in remote areas, providing low-cost and reliable energy solutions to countries along the Belt and Road Initiative [10][11] - The complete supply chain in energy storage, including battery cells and system integration, has positioned China as a leader, with a market share of over 76% in large-capacity battery cells [10] - Chinese companies are setting global energy storage technology standards, with the "Grid-Connected Energy Storage System Technical Specification" adopted by the International Electrotechnical Commission [10][13] Group 4: Strategic Differences and Global Governance - The clash between EU tariffs and Chinese energy storage technology represents a fundamental competition between two industrial logics, with China promoting a new model of international cooperation through "new energy and infrastructure" [11][13] - China's approach not only addresses energy shortages in developing countries but also offers a new path for global governance that balances efficiency and equity [13][15] - As Western nations grapple with trade protectionism, China is using renewable energy to redefine the global industrial landscape, showcasing its manufacturing prowess and commitment to sustainable development [15]