（来源：吴说） 作者 | Wintermute Ventures 编译 | 深潮 TechFlow 原文链接： https://www.techflowpost.com/zh-CN/article/30384 Wintermute Ventures 团队参加香港 Consensus 后写下这篇观察报告，提供了一个做市商视角的市场情绪 扫描。 市场降温已是共识，但这篇文章的价值在于它说出了为什么—— 叙事失效、代币身份危机、资本向 AI 股票轮换，这些信号叠加在一起，指向的不是短期熊市，而是行业范式的重新校准。 市场明显偏向有收入、有牌照、有分销护城河的业务。大家仍然相信，加密创业能带来比传统科技更好 的 10 倍回报，因为传统科技已变得更慢、更趋于共识。与此同时，在一些拥挤赛道中脱颖而出越来越 难：收益包装类产品被普遍认为已饱和且难以差异化，预测市场仍有新进入者但缺乏新的差异化，期权 市场仍然有趣，但许多人认为基础设施和边缘动态尚未就绪。 Wintermute Ventures 团队参加完香港 Consensus 后归来，此次会议最一致的信号是：市场情绪趋于谨 慎，几乎没有人愿意假装自己知道下一个显而易见的浪 ...

Wintermute 宣布推出面向机构客户的代币化黄金 OTC 交易服务，支持 Pax Gold（PAXG）与 Tether Gold（XAUT），为机构对手方提供算法优化的现货执行，并支持与 USDT、USDC、法币及主流加密 资产进行双边报价与对冲交易；Wintermute CEO Evgeny Gaevoy 表示，链上黄金市值在三个月内由约 29.9 亿美元升至 54 亿美元，公司预计该市场规模将在 2026 年增至约 150 亿美元。（The Block） （来源：吴说） ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US core CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year in January 2026, while the overall CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Cryptocurrency Market Insights - Vitalik Buterin emphasized the importance of focusing on practical applications in crypto incentive mechanisms, arguing against blind subsidies that attract low-quality users [1] - Coinbase Global Inc. reported a net loss of $667 million in Q4 2025, with revenue declining by 20% year-on-year to $1.8 billion, primarily due to decreased trading activity and asset devaluation [1] - The total market capitalization of tokenized gold has surpassed $6 billion, growing by over $2 billion since the beginning of the year, with Tether Gold and Paxos Gold holding approximately 96.7% market share [2] - Bhutan sold $6.7 million worth of Bitcoin recently, maintaining a total holding of approximately $372 million despite previous plans to collaborate with Bitdeer Technologies for mining operations [2]

但从北京时间1月29日22:30开始，金价开始巨幅波动。1月30日晚，美国总统特朗普提名凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）为下任美联储主席，进一步引发金 价"跳水"。截至1月31日凌晨收盘，现货黄金约30个小时内大跌近670美元，失守4900美元/盎司。 每经记者｜兰素英 高涵 郑雨航 每经编辑｜段炼 兰素英 易启江 2026年开年，国际金价上演"狂飙"和"跳水"。 现货黄金从4320美元/盎司左右，一路冲破多个关口，最高达到5598美元/盎司，累计涨幅一度达到29%，两周涨幅达21%。 波兰央行、稳定币巨头Tether和最大黄金ETF ——SPDR Gold Shares，这三大金价推手过去一年大笔囤积黄金，合计持仓已近1780吨。 疯狂过后，黄金后市将如何走？ "鹰派"美联储新主席： 黄金40余年来最大单日跌幅的导火索 沃什具备华尔街、白宫、美联储等跨界履职经历。1995年，沃什加入摩根士丹利纽约分公司并购部门。2002年2月，沃什离开摩根士丹利，加入小布什政 府，担任总统经济政策特别助理、白宫国家经济委员会执行秘书。 2006年2月24日，沃什宣誓就任美联储理事会成员，曾是最年轻的美联储理事。 沃什担 ...

Group 1 - The international gold price experienced a dramatic fluctuation at the beginning of 2026, soaring to a peak of $5598 per ounce before plummeting by nearly $670 within 30 hours, marking the largest single-day drop since 1983 [6][7][13] - Key players driving the gold price surge included the National Bank of Poland, Tether, and SPDR Gold Shares, which collectively accumulated nearly 1780 tons of gold over the past year [7][21][30] - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump triggered significant market volatility, contributing to the sharp decline in gold prices [7][14][18] Group 2 - The National Bank of Poland has been a major buyer of gold, purchasing approximately 100 tons in 2025, making it the largest official gold buyer globally for the second consecutive year [21][22] - Tether has accumulated 140 tons of gold, positioning itself as a significant player in the physical gold market, with plans to continue purchasing gold to support its cryptocurrency operations [25][27][28] - SPDR Gold Shares, the largest gold ETF, held approximately 1086.53 tons of gold as of January 29, 2026, making it a crucial factor in the gold market [30][32] Group 3 - The recent volatility in gold prices is attributed to multiple risk factors, including geopolitical tensions, concerns over the dollar's credit risk, and potential policy shifts under the new Fed leadership [33][34] - Analysts predict that gold may enter a phase of "oscillation and digestion" in the short term, but could rebound quickly if new risk events arise [34] - Various financial institutions have set differing price targets for gold in 2026, with some predicting a rise to $6000 per ounce, while others forecast a lower range around $4450 to $4550 per ounce [35][36]

Core Viewpoint - Tether Holdings SA has become a significant player in the gold market, holding approximately 140 tons of gold valued at around $24 billion, making it the largest gold holder outside of governments and central banks [4][10]. Group 1: Gold Acquisition Strategy - Tether is purchasing physical gold at a rate of up to two tons per week, which translates to over $1 billion in gold purchases each month [5][10]. - The gold is stored in a highly secure former nuclear bunker in Switzerland, which is one of the most active facilities for gold storage [7][10]. - The company is exploring ways to improve the efficiency of its gold purchasing process due to the large quantities involved [8]. Group 2: Market Impact and Position - Tether's gold purchases have reportedly contributed to a 65% increase in gold prices over the past year, with the current price exceeding $5,300 per ounce [11][21]. - The company has surpassed countries like Greece, Qatar, and Australia in gold acquisition speed, indicating its growing influence in the market [12]. - Tether's CEO compares the company's role in the gold market to that of a central bank, predicting that geopolitical rivals will introduce gold-backed alternatives to the dollar [15][16]. Group 3: Product Development and Future Plans - Tether is developing a gold-backed token, Tether Gold (XAUT), which has already issued tokens equivalent to approximately 16 tons of gold, valued at $2.7 billion [26]. - The market circulation of XAUT is projected to reach between $5 billion to $10 billion by the end of the year, potentially requiring additional gold purchases [26][29]. - The company aims to establish itself as a competitive player in gold trading, seeking to leverage market inefficiencies for profit [24][25].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged due to weak U.S. economic data and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with forecasts suggesting prices could reach $5,000 per ounce by the end of the year [2][4][6]. Economic Indicators - U.S. private sector job cuts exceeded 150,000 in October, the highest level for this period in over 20 years, indicating a slowdown in the labor market [4]. - The U.S. consumer confidence index dropped significantly to 50.3 in November, below market expectations, marking the lowest level since June 2022 [4]. - Market expectations for a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve are at 64%, with a 77% probability for January [4]. Government Actions - The U.S. Senate has advanced a funding measure to reopen the government, which could enhance the clarity of economic data related to employment and inflation [5]. - The potential end of the government shutdown may shift market focus back to deteriorating U.S. fiscal prospects, historically supporting gold investments [5]. Gold Price Trends - Gold prices have seen a decline of approximately 6% since reaching a historical high of $4,380 per ounce in mid-October, yet remain up over 56% year-to-date [5]. - Analysts predict gold prices could rise to between $4,200 and $4,300 per ounce by year-end, with further increases expected in the first quarter of next year [5][6]. Investment in Gold Tokens - The rise of gold tokens, such as Tether Gold (XAUT), has been noted, with XAUT's market value increasing from $1.44 billion to nearly $2.1 billion in October, reflecting a 60% surge [7]. - Gold tokens currently represent about 1% of the stablecoin market, with a total market value of approximately $3 billion compared to $300 billion for dollar-backed stablecoins [7][8]. Market Debate - There is ongoing debate regarding the viability of gold tokens versus Bitcoin as "digital gold," with some experts highlighting the risks associated with gold tokens, including counterparty risks and the reliability of redeeming physical gold [8].

Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market capitalization has decreased by 4.9%, now standing at $3.67 trillion [1][2] - Total crypto trading volume is reported at $234 billion [1] Price Movements - Among the top 100 coins, 97 have experienced price declines over the past 24 hours [1][4] - Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped by 4.5%, currently trading at $105,732 [2][3] - Ethereum (ETH) has fallen by 6%, now priced at $3,764 [2][3] - Binance Coin (BNB) saw the highest drop at 10%, trading at $1,064 [3] - Dogecoin (DOGE) decreased by 9.3%, now at $0.179 [3] - The smallest decline was 4.3% for Tron (TRX), currently at $0.3079 [4] Significant Declines - Over 30 coins in the top 100 recorded double-digit percentage falls [4] - ChainOpera AI (COAI) experienced the largest drop of 22.8%, now at $17.71 [4] - Zcash (ZEC) decreased by 19.9%, now priced at $193 [4] Market Sentiment and Influences - The crypto market sentiment is currently in the fear zone, similar to levels last seen in April [2] - A wave of liquidations exceeding $19 billion has contributed to the recent downturn, influenced by US-China trade tensions [5] - Analysts suggest that a break below the key support level of $99,900 for Bitcoin could lead to a deeper correction [6] Bitcoin's Utility Perspective - There is a strong conviction in Bitcoin as a utility asset, not merely a store of value [7] - Despite recent price fluctuations, Bitcoin DeFi's Total Value Locked (TVL) has remained relatively stable [6][7]