今年 1月初在广州，小鹏选择了一种并不"保守"的方式，拉开了 2026 年的序幕：2026款P7+、2026 款 G7、超级增程、2026款G6、2026款G9四车同台，其中的 P7+ 直接以"全球 36 国同步发布"的节奏登 场。 这不是常规意义上的年度改款发布会，更像是一种主动的叙事切换，小鹏想把外界对它的认知，从"纯 电+智驾"这两个标签，升级成产品双能源、技术新范式、市场全球化三条线同时推进的结构。 真正值得反复咀嚼的，是这场发布会所承载的周期意味。 源：小鹏汽车 交流中，何小鹏将 2025 年定义为"行稳致远的第三年"，他给未来三年明确框定为一个时间窗 口："2026、2027、2028 年是物理 AI 非常重要的三年，而 2026 年是其中的第一年。" 这句话的潜台词很明确：2026年作为新周期的开端，要么把过去两年的积累兑现成可感知的产品力与交 付力，要么就被行业的下一轮淘汰赛反噬。 所以，为什么要"四车齐上"？首先是把节奏抢回来。过去几年，新势力的很多发布会像是被市场牵着 走：竞品出一招、我跟一招；热点来了、就临时加戏。小鹏这次的动作更像按计划出牌，主力价位段同 时补齐纯电与增程的产品供给，并 ...

Core Insights - Xiaopeng Motors is set to launch four significant models at the 2026 Global New Product Launch, marking 2026 as a pivotal year for the company's global product and technology expansion, transitioning into a key phase of physical AI development [1] - The company reported a record global delivery of 429,400 vehicles in 2025, a 126% year-on-year increase, positioning 2026 as a critical year for strategic breakthroughs [2] Group 1: Technology and Innovation - Xiaopeng Motors is transitioning from a traditional automaker to an AI technology company, with a focus on the next three years as crucial for physical AI advancements [2] - The upcoming VLA (Vision Language Action) technology is anticipated to revolutionize autonomous driving, with plans for mass production and upgrades in 2026 [2] - The unified VLA technology platform will enable the development of both Ultra and Robotaxi versions, reducing R&D costs and facilitating rapid application of AI technologies across different product forms [2] Group 2: Robotics and Future Projects - The company is developing a production version of its robot, which aims to be humanoid and capable of communication, contrasting with traditional software-driven robots [3] - Xiaopeng Motors is also advancing its flying car project, indicating a comprehensive technology ecosystem that includes land, air, and intelligent services [3] Group 3: Globalization Strategy - Xiaopeng Motors has entered 60 countries and regions by 2025, with plans for further market expansion and a focus on local R&D and manufacturing to enhance competitiveness [4] - A strategic partnership with Volkswagen is a key element of Xiaopeng's globalization efforts, with the first collaborative model expected to enter mass production soon [4] - The company is confident in deploying its VLA technology in Europe, having conducted extensive road testing and engaged with local governments on regulatory matters [4] Group 4: Product Innovation - The 2026 Xiaopeng G7 model features advanced super-range technology, achieving a pure electric range of 430 kilometers and a combined range of 1,704 kilometers [5] - The "dual-energy" strategy has proven successful, with significant demand for the X9 super-range model, indicating strong market potential for range-extended vehicles [6] - Xiaopeng Motors is expanding its global channel and supply chain, with plans to increase the number of factories outside China and deepen market penetration into less urbanized areas [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The company reported a narrowing loss in Q3 2025, with a revenue of 20.38 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 101.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -0.38 billion yuan, narrowing by 78.9% year-on-year and 20.3% quarter-on-quarter [3][6] - The company achieved a vehicle delivery volume of 116,000 units in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 149.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.4%. The automotive business revenue reached 18.05 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 105.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.9% [6] - The company is expanding its collaboration with Volkswagen, which has become a strategic partner for the second-generation VLA model, indicating potential growth in revenue from R&D services [6][7] - The launch of the Kunpeng Super Range Extender is expected to open new growth opportunities in the new energy vehicle sector [6][7] - The second-generation VLA model was released, which enhances the company's capabilities in physical AI, with plans to launch three Robotaxi models in 2026 [7] Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenues for 2025 to 2027 are 76.93 billion yuan, 117.47 billion yuan, and 144.84 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 88.2%, 52.7%, and 23.3% [5][10] - The net profit is expected to improve from -1.4 billion yuan in 2025 to 4.5 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant turnaround [5][10] - The gross margin for the automotive business is projected to increase from 18.2% in 2025 to 20.5% in 2027, indicating improved profitability [5][10] Delivery and Revenue Guidance - The company has provided a Q4 delivery guidance of 125,000 to 132,000 units, corresponding to a revenue guidance of 21.5 billion to 23 billion yuan [6] - In October, the company delivered 42,013 vehicles, with an expected average monthly delivery of 41,000 to 45,000 units for November and December [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent unveiling of Xiaopeng's humanoid robot "IRON" during the "Technology Day" event, highlighting its advanced capabilities and the strategic shift in Xiaopeng's robotics direction, moving away from industrial applications to more interactive roles like guiding and shopping assistance [4][18][20]. Group 1: Robot Presentation and Public Reaction - Xiaopeng's "Technology Day" featured the release of the humanoid robot "IRON," which showcased basic walking capabilities, sparking public interest and skepticism regarding its authenticity [4][6]. - The event generated significant media attention, with Xiaopeng leveraging social media to enhance visibility, including a video of the CEO interacting with the robot [6][7]. - The public's reaction included doubts about the robot's capabilities, with some speculating it was merely a human in disguise due to its lifelike appearance [6][9]. Group 2: Technical Aspects of IRON - The "IRON" robot demonstrated advanced gait capabilities, attributed to its complex mechanical structure and generative algorithms that allow for real-time adjustments in movement [10][14]. - The robot's design features significant upgrades in its joints and movement flexibility compared to earlier versions, indicating a substantial leap in hardware complexity [14][22]. - The integration of generative models into the robot's control systems enables it to perform actions based on high-level commands rather than pre-programmed sequences, mimicking human-like decision-making [15][30]. Group 3: Strategic Shift in Robotics - Xiaopeng has shifted its focus from industrial applications to more consumer-oriented roles for the IRON robot, such as guiding and shopping assistance, reflecting a change in market strategy [18][20]. - The initial applications for the robot have been revised from factory automation to more interactive scenarios, indicating ongoing uncertainty in the robotics business [23][24]. - The timeline for mass production of advanced humanoid robots has been set for the end of 2026, but the specifics of the robot's capabilities and applications remain unclear [24][25]. Group 4: AI and Autonomous Driving Developments - Xiaopeng's advancements in AI and autonomous driving technology are crucial for its core automotive business, with the second-generation VLA model being introduced to enhance driving capabilities [29][30]. - The new VLA model aims to improve data processing efficiency and reduce reliance on labeled data, indicating a significant evolution in the company's AI strategy [30][31]. - Despite the progress, there are concerns about the competitive landscape in the autonomous driving sector, with Xiaopeng's performance reportedly declining over the past year [29][34].

Product Plans - The company plans to launch the X9 Super Range Extender next month, with a focus on range-extended models starting from this year [1] - Next year is expected to be a significant product year, with confirmed releases including the G7 Range Extender (pure electric range of 430 km), a full-size SUV (code-named G01), and the SUV version of Mona03 [1] - Future plans also include the mass production and pilot operation of L3 or L4 level Robotaxis, delivery of Xiaopeng Huitian products in the second half of the year, and the mass production of humanoid robots [1] - The introduction of range-extended versions for new models is anticipated to enhance sales potential, as the company aims to balance both pure electric and range-extended vehicles [1] Intelligent Driving - The upcoming year is expected to be a turning point for intelligent driving, with significant disparities in capabilities among car manufacturers [1] - The company is confident in maintaining its advantage in intelligent driving, leveraging the Turing chip and the latest VLA large model to achieve L3 level intelligent driving ahead of competitors [1] - The favorable national policies are expected to benefit companies that can technically achieve these advancements first [1] Brand and Market Positioning - The new design aesthetics led by the P7 could enhance the brand's appeal, particularly among younger consumers, which is crucial for building a stable customer base [2] - The current sales challenges are attributed to a lack of distinctive features across models, which hinders the formation of a loyal user group [2] - The combination of technology and aesthetics is expected to position the company favorably in the 100,000 to 250,000 yuan price range, targeting young consumers' first car market [2] Sales Projections - Sales are projected to gradually increase, maintaining around 40,000 units per month from September to the fourth quarter of this year [2] - A significant sales increase to 50,000-60,000 units is anticipated in the first quarter of next year, driven by the launch of range-extended products and new models, along with brand promotion from the P7 [2]