业绩回顾 3Q25 业绩符合市场和我们预期 机构：中金公司 研究员：邓学/常菁/杨东冀 发布首款增程产品，强产品周期持续发力。公司近期开启预售小鹏X9 超级增程车型，新车预售价35-37 万元，我们预计其正式售价有望低于同车型的纯电版本。公司正式开启超级增程电动的产品周期，后续 的正式上市和订单表现有望再度验证公司打造爆款车型能力，结合公司后续即将于2026 年开启现有车 型在超级增程电动上的持续换代，我们继续看好公司"一车双能"战略。 全面的AI 技术布局，迈向未来出行生态。公司于近期举办的AI科技日中全面展示了在AI 领域的技术和 商业化布局，公司计划2026 年开启机器人IRON、飞行汽车和Robotaxi 正式量产，我们认为上述产品有 望加速公司从智能电动车企向综合的出行和科技平台转型。此外，公司表示小鹏图灵AI 芯片也正式获 得大众汽车定点。本次业绩会中公司也给了机器人更多的量产数据指引，包括目标2030 年实现100 万台 产销目标。国际化方面，业绩会中表示对出口业务充满信心，9 月海外汽车销量已破5000 辆。 盈利预测与估值 当前港/美股股价均对应2025 年2.0x P/S，维持跑赢行业评级 ...

Core Insights - The company reported its Q3 2025 earnings, achieving a revenue of 20.38 billion yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases of 101.8% and 11.5% respectively, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -0.38 billion yuan, narrowing by 78.9% year-on-year and 20.3% quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3, the company delivered 116,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year growth of 149.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.4% [1] - The automotive business revenue reached 18.05 billion yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 105.3% and 6.9% respectively [1] - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle in Q3 was 156,000 yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.8 thousand yuan quarter-on-quarter [1] - The automotive gross margin for Q3 was 13.1%, down by 1.2 percentage points from the previous quarter, attributed to product upgrades [1] Group 2: Strategic Partnerships and Revenue Growth - The overall gross margin for the company in Q3 was 20.1%, an increase of 4.8 and 2.8 percentage points year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter respectively, driven by improved profitability from service and other income [2] - Revenue from service and other income reached 2.33 billion yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases of 78.1% and 67.3% respectively, and a gross margin of 74.6%, up by 14.5 and 21.1 percentage points [2] - The company expanded its collaboration with Volkswagen, which became a strategic partner for the second-generation VLA, indicating potential for increased revenue from R&D services [2] Group 3: Product Development and Future Outlook - The company launched the Kunpeng Super Range Extender, featuring a fast-charging lithium iron phosphate battery with a pure electric range exceeding 450 km, and plans to release seven new models with super range extender configurations by 2026 [3] - The second-generation VLA model was introduced, enabling direct output from visual signals to action commands, with a full rollout planned for Q1 2026 [3] - The company aims to launch three Robotaxi models in 2026 and initiate trial operations in cities like Guangzhou, with plans to open the SDK for global partners [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to -1.4 billion, +2 billion, and +4.5 billion yuan respectively, reflecting expectations for growth driven by the new range extender models and AI capabilities [4] - The company maintains a "recommended" rating, anticipating new business models emerging from advancements in AI and mass production capabilities [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The company reported a narrowing loss in Q3 2025, with a revenue of 20.38 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 101.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -0.38 billion yuan, narrowing by 78.9% year-on-year and 20.3% quarter-on-quarter [3][6] - The company achieved a vehicle delivery volume of 116,000 units in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 149.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.4%. The automotive business revenue reached 18.05 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 105.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.9% [6] - The company is expanding its collaboration with Volkswagen, which has become a strategic partner for the second-generation VLA model, indicating potential growth in revenue from R&D services [6][7] - The launch of the Kunpeng Super Range Extender is expected to open new growth opportunities in the new energy vehicle sector [6][7] - The second-generation VLA model was released, which enhances the company's capabilities in physical AI, with plans to launch three Robotaxi models in 2026 [7] Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenues for 2025 to 2027 are 76.93 billion yuan, 117.47 billion yuan, and 144.84 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 88.2%, 52.7%, and 23.3% [5][10] - The net profit is expected to improve from -1.4 billion yuan in 2025 to 4.5 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant turnaround [5][10] - The gross margin for the automotive business is projected to increase from 18.2% in 2025 to 20.5% in 2027, indicating improved profitability [5][10] Delivery and Revenue Guidance - The company has provided a Q4 delivery guidance of 125,000 to 132,000 units, corresponding to a revenue guidance of 21.5 billion to 23 billion yuan [6] - In October, the company delivered 42,013 vehicles, with an expected average monthly delivery of 41,000 to 45,000 units for November and December [6]

Core Insights - Xiaopeng Motors reported strong performance in Q3 2025, with record delivery volume, revenue, gross margin, and cash reserves [2][4] - The average selling price per vehicle was 155,000 yuan, indicating challenges in brand elevation [5][6] Financial Performance - Total delivery volume reached 116,007 units, a year-on-year increase of 149.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.4% [2] - Total revenue for Q3 was 20.38 billion yuan, up 101.8% year-on-year and 11.5% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Gross margin for Q3 was 20.1%, an increase of 4.8 percentage points year-on-year, while automotive gross margin was 13.1%, up 4.5 percentage points [3] Revenue Streams - Revenue from "services and other businesses" reached 2.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 78.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 67.3% [2] - The partnership with Volkswagen significantly boosted revenue, with potential for future growth [2] Cost Management - Net loss for the quarter was 380 million yuan, a significant reduction from 1.81 billion yuan in the same period last year [4] - R&D expenses were 2.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.7%, driven by new model and technology development [5] - Selling, general, and administrative expenses rose to 2.49 billion yuan, up 52.6% year-on-year [5] Cash Position - Cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investments, and time deposits totaled 48.33 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 760 million yuan from the previous quarter [5] Market Position and Challenges - Xiaopeng Motors faces challenges in brand elevation, particularly in the 200,000 yuan and above segment, following the launch of lower-end models [6] - The company aims to enhance its brand influence through investments in advanced driving technology and other innovative areas [7] Future Outlook - For Q4, Xiaopeng Motors expects vehicle deliveries between 125,000 and 132,000 units, a year-on-year growth of approximately 36.6% to 44.3% [7] - Total revenue is projected to reach between 21.5 billion and 23 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 33.5% to 42.8% [7]

Core Insights - Xiaopeng Motors reported record-high operational metrics for Q3 2025, with deliveries reaching 116,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 149.3%, and revenue of 20.38 billion yuan, up 101.8%, with a gross margin surpassing 20% for the first time at 20.1% [1] Group 1: "One Car, Dual Energy" Strategy - The "One Car, Dual Energy" strategy aims to reshape the electric vehicle product landscape, introducing the Kunpeng Super Range Extender technology to address five key issues faced by traditional range extender users [2] - The Xiaopeng X9 Super Range Extender, the first model featuring this technology, has become the world's longest-range seven-seater vehicle, generating unprecedented user interest and achieving nearly four times the pre-sale orders compared to the last pre-sale [2] - The company plans to launch seven models with Super Range Extender configurations by 2026, including three models in Q1 2026, addressing user pain points with longer electric range and faster charging [2][3] Group 2: Market Performance and Projections - Xiaopeng Motors anticipates a strong growth trajectory, projecting Q4 2025 total deliveries between 125,000 and 132,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.6% to 44.3%, with expected revenue of 21.5 billion to 23 billion yuan, up approximately 33.5% to 42.8% [3] Group 3: Physical AI Ecosystem - The company is transitioning to a physical AI technology framework, positioning itself as a global explorer in embodied intelligence, with significant investments in AI models, computing power, and data [4] - The second-generation VLA model will have ten times the parameters of its predecessor, enhancing safety and user experience in intelligent driving [4] - Xiaopeng Motors adopts an open ecosystem strategy, with the second-generation VLA model being made available to global partners, including Volkswagen as the first customer [4][5] Group 4: Future Applications and Market Potential - The company views Robotaxi and humanoid robots as the two primary application scenarios for physical AI, planning to launch three Robotaxi models in 2026 and operate trials in China [5] - The new generation IRON robot, designed with a human-like form, is expected to achieve comprehensive capability integration by Q2 2026 and mass production by the end of 2026, with long-term sales potential exceeding 1 million units annually by 2030 [5] - Xiaopeng Motors is confident in becoming a leader in physical AI, aiming to create greater value for global customers and shareholders [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of AI from the digital realm to the physical world, marking the emergence of the "Physical AI" era, with XPeng Motors as a leading representative in this trend [3][10][35]. Group 1: AI Transformation - The AI landscape is evolving from traditional concepts like "models, computing power, and algorithms" to exploring the relationship between AI and the physical world [2][6]. - The shift towards "Physical AI" signifies a new frontier where AI technologies are integrated into real-world applications, such as autonomous driving and robotics [7][10]. Group 2: XPeng's Strategic Shift - XPeng has redefined its corporate positioning from a "future mobility explorer" to a "global embodied intelligence company," reflecting its focus on Physical AI [4][24]. - The market has responded positively to this repositioning, with XPeng's stock experiencing significant gains following announcements related to its Physical AI strategy [4][34]. Group 3: Market Trends and Valuation - The capital market has shown enthusiasm for AI-related stocks, with companies like NVIDIA reaching a market capitalization of over $5 trillion, indicating strong investor confidence in digital AI [5][6]. - Observers note a shift in focus towards how AI impacts the real world, suggesting that the next phase of competition will center on the practical applications of AI technologies [6][11]. Group 4: XPeng's Product Innovations - XPeng showcased its advancements in Physical AI products, including the second-generation VLA model, which enhances autonomous driving capabilities [13][14]. - The company plans to launch multiple Robotaxi models and a new generation of humanoid robots by 2026, indicating a robust product pipeline in the Physical AI domain [16][20]. Group 5: Global Expansion and Market Position - XPeng has accelerated its global expansion, entering new markets in Europe and Southeast Asia, and achieving significant growth in overseas deliveries [29][30]. - The company aims to position itself as a leader in the global electric vehicle market, leveraging its advancements in Physical AI to differentiate itself from competitors like Tesla [32][34].

Core Insights - The 2025 Xpeng Technology Day showcased significant advancements in "Physical AI," highlighting four key applications with clear mass production plans, indicating that "Physical AI" is becoming a tangible reality rather than a distant concept [1][3][5] Group 1: Company Positioning and Strategy - Xpeng's CEO announced a major shift in the company's positioning to become a "global embodiment intelligence company exploring mobility in the Physical AI world," supported by a comprehensive self-developed Physical AI system [3] - The second-generation VLA (Visual-Language-Action) represents a breakthrough by eliminating the traditional "language translation" step, enabling direct generation of action commands from visual signals [5][9] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The second-generation VLA operates on a robust "computing power + data" foundation, featuring a cloud computing cluster with 30,000 nodes and a base model with 720 billion parameters, ensuring rapid model iteration every five days [7] - The deployment of the second-generation VLA in vehicles is set to enhance intelligent driving performance, with the upcoming "Xiaolu NGP" feature expected to increase the average takeover mileage in complex environments by 13 times [9] Group 3: Product Development and Launch Plans - Xpeng plans to launch three Robotaxi models in 2026, utilizing four Turing AI chips for a total computing power of 3000 TOPS, which is among the highest globally [13] - The new generation of the IRON humanoid robot features advanced design and capabilities, including 82 degrees of freedom and the industry's first all-solid-state battery, addressing traditional robots' limitations in terms of endurance and safety [17][20] Group 4: Innovations in Aviation - Xpeng's Huitian has developed two flight systems, including a personal low-altitude flying vehicle and the A868, which is designed for efficient multi-passenger travel, with a projected range of 500 km and a maximum speed of 360 km/h [22] - The land carrier has received over 7,000 global orders, setting an industry record, and is on the verge of mass production, featuring innovative safety and operational designs [24]

Core Insights - Xiaopeng Motors announced the open-sourcing of its second-generation VLA large model for global commercial partners [1] - Volkswagen has become the first strategic partner for Xiaopeng's second-generation VLA [1] - Xiaopeng's Turing AI chip has been designated by Volkswagen [1]

Core Insights - The core focus of the article is on the advancements in physical AI disclosed by Xiaopeng during the Xiaopeng Technology Day, highlighting the launch of the second-generation VLA and its strategic partnership with Volkswagen [1] Group 1: Technological Advancements - Xiaopeng introduced the second-generation VLA, which is considered the largest leap in intelligent driving since the end-to-end standard VLA [1] - The company plans to fully launch the Ultra model in the first quarter of 2026 [1] Group 2: Strategic Partnerships - Volkswagen has become the first strategic partner for the second-generation VLA, indicating a significant collaboration in the automotive technology space [1] - Xiaopeng's Turing AI chip has been designated for Volkswagen, showcasing the integration of advanced AI technology in their vehicles [1]

Core Insights - Xiaopeng Motors announced the open-sourcing of its second-generation VLA large model for global commercial partners, with Volkswagen becoming the first strategic partner for this initiative [2] - The Xiaopeng Turing AI chip has been specifically designated for Volkswagen [2]