（1）分产品来看，2Q25 系列酒降速明显，茅台酒贡献主要收入。1H25茅台酒、系列酒的营收增速分 别为+10.2%、+4.7%，其中2Q25 营收增速分别为+11.0%、-6.5%。（2）分渠道来看，公司直销渠道营 收占比持续提升，上半年保持较高增速。1H25 传统渠道营收493.4 亿元，同比 +2.8%（2Q25，+1.5%）；直销渠道营收400.1 亿元，同比+18.6%（2Q25，+16.5%），直销渠道营收占 比44.8%，同比提升3.5pct。其中，i 茅台数字营销平台收入107.6 亿元，同比+5.0%。1H25 海外渠道营 收28.9 亿元，同比+31.3%，自2024 年突破50 亿元后，持续保持较高增速。（3）我们判断，上半年茅 台酒实现较快增长，一方面与飞天发货进度加快有关，另一方面，公司加大一升装茅台及非标茅台直营 渠道投放，直营渠道增量贡献营收。 系列酒方面，受去年同期高基数影响（2Q24 系列酒营收增速为+42.5%），叠加市场需求疲软，2Q25 系列酒降速明显。 贵州茅台公告2025 年半年报。1H25 公司实现营收894 亿元，同比+9.1%，归母净利454 亿元，同比 +8 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] - The previous rating was also "Buy" [1] - The market price is RMB 1,428.50 [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Guizhou Moutai's Q2 2025 performance showed a sequential decline, but the company is proactively adjusting to maintain stability in its channel and product pricing [1][5] - The company aims for long-term high-quality development despite external consumption pressures [5] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the company's steady operational rhythm [1][5] Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 894 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, and a net profit of RMB 454 billion, up 8.9% year-on-year [5][6] - In Q2 2025, revenue and net profit were RMB 388 billion and RMB 186 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 7.3% and 5.2% [5][6] - The company’s gross profit margin in Q2 2025 was 90.4%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [6] Revenue Breakdown - In H1 2025, revenue from Moutai liquor grew by 10.2%, while the series liquor segment saw a growth of 4.7% [5] - The direct sales channel's revenue accounted for 44.8% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5 percentage points [5] - The overseas channel revenue reached RMB 28.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31.3% [5] Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for Q2 2025 was 47.8%, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [5][6] - The company’s EBITDA for 2025 is projected to be RMB 126.6 billion, with a growth rate of 8.1% [8] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at RMB 73.77, reflecting a growth rate of 7.5% [8] Valuation - The current market capitalization is approximately RMB 1,794.48 billion [3] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 19.4 times [8] - The report anticipates a steady growth in net profit for the years 2025 to 2027, with expected figures of RMB 92.67 billion, RMB 98.27 billion, and RMB 104.46 billion respectively [5][8]

食品饮料 2025年08月13日 贵州茅台(600519.SH) 1H总收入同增9%，茅台酒稳健增长 推荐 ( 维持) 股价:1437.04元 公 司 报 告 行情走势图 证券分析师 | 张晋溢 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060521030001 | | | ZHANGJINYI112@pingan.com.cn | | 王星云 | 投资咨询资格编号 | 事项： 贵州茅台发布2025年半年报，1H25实现营业总收入911亿元，同比+9.2%；归 母净利454亿元，同比+8.9%；2Q25实现营业总收入397亿元，同比+7.3%； 归母净利186亿元，同比+5.2%。 平安观点： 评 研 究 报 告 S1060523100001 公 司 半 年 报 点 证 BVG933 wangxingyun937@pingan.com.cn | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 147,694 | 170,899 | 186,451 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 174.144 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.66%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 86.228 billion yuan, up 15.38% year-on-year [2][6] - In Q4 2024, the total revenue was 51.022 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.77%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 25.401 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.21% [2][6] - The revenue from Moutai liquor reached 145.928 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 15.28% year-on-year, while the revenue from series liquor was 24.684 billion yuan, up 19.65% year-on-year [11] - The company continues to maintain strong cash flow, with cash received from sales and services amounting to 182.645 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.57% [11] Summary by Sections Revenue Analysis - The revenue from direct sales was 74.843 billion yuan, increasing by 11.32% year-on-year, while wholesale revenue was 95.769 billion yuan, up 19.73% year-on-year. The direct sales channel accounted for 43.87% of total revenue, a decrease of 1.8% year-on-year [11] - The "i Moutai" digital marketing platform generated 20.024 billion yuan in revenue, down 10.51% year-on-year, likely due to the delisting of Moutai 1935 from the platform in Q4 2024 [11] Profitability - The net profit margin for 2024 was 49.52%, a slight decrease of 0.12 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross profit margin was 92.08%, down 0.04 percentage points year-on-year [11] - The company plans to maintain a cash dividend payout ratio of around 75% for 2024, in line with its previously disclosed dividend plan for 2024-2026 [11] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain strong growth, with projected EPS of 73.98 yuan and 80.40 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 21 and 19 times [11]