Core Insights - Guizhou Moutai reported a revenue of 128.45 billion yuan for the first three quarters, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.36% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 64.63 billion yuan, with a daily net profit of 239 million yuan, also reflecting a growth of 6.25% year-on-year [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 14.01% to 38.20 billion yuan [1] Financial Performance - In Q3, Guizhou Moutai's revenue was 39.06 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.56% year-on-year [2] - The net profit for Q3 was 19.22 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.48% [2] - Moutai liquor remains the main revenue driver, generating 110.51 billion yuan in the first three quarters, while series liquor revenue fell to 17.88 billion yuan [2] Sales Channels - Direct sales revenue reached 55.56 billion yuan, while wholesale and agency revenue amounted to 72.84 billion yuan [2] - Revenue from the "i Moutai" digital marketing platform was 12.69 billion yuan, which represents a decline compared to the previous year [2] Shareholder Activity - As of October 20, the controlling shareholder increased its stake by acquiring 797,125 shares, representing 0.06365% of the total share capital, with a total expenditure of 1.16 billion yuan [2] - The total number of shareholders reached 238,500, an increase of 8.09% from the previous reporting period, with an average holding of 5,250 shares [2] Market Position - Guizhou Moutai has dropped out of the top five holdings in active equity funds, falling from the third largest to the tenth largest position, marking the lowest ranking in recent years [3]

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai Co., Ltd. reported a revenue increase of 6.36% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 128.45 billion yuan, along with a net profit increase of 6.25% to 64.63 billion yuan [1] Financial Performance - For the first nine months, Guizhou Moutai's revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor amounted to 110.51 billion yuan and 17.88 billion yuan, respectively [1] - The company's direct sales and wholesale channels generated revenues of 55.56 billion yuan and 72.84 billion yuan, respectively [1] Digital Marketing Impact - Through the "i Moutai" digital marketing platform, Guizhou Moutai achieved a tax-excluded revenue of 12.69 billion yuan in the first three quarters [1]

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai held a performance briefing for the first half of 2025, addressing investor concerns regarding the price fluctuations of Feitian Moutai, annual performance targets, and overseas market expansion [1] Group 1: Sales Performance and Market Strategy - The sales of Feitian Moutai have shown a significant recovery in August compared to June and July, with a notable increase in terminal sales since the end of August [3] - As of September 12, the price of 25-year Feitian Moutai was quoted at 1780 yuan, a decrease of approximately 35% compared to the 2400 yuan price of the 24-year product last year [3] - The company aims for a 9% annual growth target, which is a reduction from the previous five-year average of 15%, reflecting a comprehensive consideration of industry conditions and corporate development [3] Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, the company achieved revenue of 91.094 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, and a net profit of 45.403 billion yuan, up 8.89%, aligning with market expectations [3] - There was a significant fluctuation in contract liabilities, with pre-received payments of 5.507 billion yuan, a decrease of over 42% from the beginning of the year, indicating weakened willingness among distributors to stock products [3] Group 3: Product Innovation and Market Expansion - The company has been active in product innovation, enhancing the iMoutai digital marketing platform and launching new products such as kilogram packaging of Feitian Moutai and commemorative wines [4] - The sales growth of the Moutai 1935 series slowed to 4.69% in the first half of the year, despite achieving over 12 billion yuan in sales last year, with ongoing price discrepancies in the market [4] - The company is focusing on international market development, particularly in Singapore, Australia, and Japan, to accelerate its global expansion [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a steady performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue and net profit growth, while adjusting its operational pace in response to external market pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company achieved revenue of 89.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 45.4 billion, up 8.9% year-on-year [1]. - In 2Q25, the company recorded revenue and net profit of 38.8 billion and 18.6 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 7.3% and 5.2% [1]. - The company's operating cash flow in 2Q25 was 4.31 billion, down 84.3% year-on-year, indicating pressure on cash flow performance [2]. Group 2: Product and Channel Performance - In 2Q25, the company adjusted its product structure, with Moutai liquor being the main revenue contributor, while series liquor faced significant decline [3]. - Revenue growth rates for Moutai liquor and series liquor in 1H25 were 10.2% and 4.7%, respectively, with 2Q25 growth rates of 11.0% and -6.5% [3]. - Direct sales channel revenue grew by 18.6% year-on-year in 1H25, accounting for 44.8% of total revenue, an increase of 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Group 3: Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for 2Q25 was 47.8%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin fell to 90.4%, down 0.3 percentage points [4]. - The gross margins for Moutai liquor and series liquor were 93.8% and 77.6%, respectively, with series liquor experiencing a significant decline due to pricing pressures [4]. - The sales expense ratio increased by 0.5 percentage points in 2Q25, primarily due to higher advertising and marketing expenditures [4]. Group 4: Valuation and Outlook - The company is adjusting its profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027, expecting net profits of 92.67 billion, 98.27 billion, and 104.46 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.5%, 6.0%, and 6.3% respectively [5]. - The current market valuation corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 19.4X, 18.3X, and 17.2X for the respective years [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] - The previous rating was also "Buy" [1] - The market price is RMB 1,428.50 [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Guizhou Moutai's Q2 2025 performance showed a sequential decline, but the company is proactively adjusting to maintain stability in its channel and product pricing [1][5] - The company aims for long-term high-quality development despite external consumption pressures [5] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the company's steady operational rhythm [1][5] Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 894 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, and a net profit of RMB 454 billion, up 8.9% year-on-year [5][6] - In Q2 2025, revenue and net profit were RMB 388 billion and RMB 186 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 7.3% and 5.2% [5][6] - The company’s gross profit margin in Q2 2025 was 90.4%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [6] Revenue Breakdown - In H1 2025, revenue from Moutai liquor grew by 10.2%, while the series liquor segment saw a growth of 4.7% [5] - The direct sales channel's revenue accounted for 44.8% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5 percentage points [5] - The overseas channel revenue reached RMB 28.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31.3% [5] Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for Q2 2025 was 47.8%, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [5][6] - The company’s EBITDA for 2025 is projected to be RMB 126.6 billion, with a growth rate of 8.1% [8] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at RMB 73.77, reflecting a growth rate of 7.5% [8] Valuation - The current market capitalization is approximately RMB 1,794.48 billion [3] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 19.4 times [8] - The report anticipates a steady growth in net profit for the years 2025 to 2027, with expected figures of RMB 92.67 billion, RMB 98.27 billion, and RMB 104.46 billion respectively [5][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Guizhou Moutai [1][5][12] Core Views - Guizhou Moutai's total revenue for 1H25 reached 911 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 454 billion yuan, up 8.9% [5] - The revenue from Moutai liquor in 1H25 was 756 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 10.2% year-on-year, while the revenue from series liquor was 138 billion yuan, a 4.7% increase [8] - Direct sales revenue in 1H25 amounted to 400 billion yuan, up 18.6% year-on-year, indicating strong growth in this channel [8] - The report anticipates a slight decline in profit margins due to increased marketing expenses, with a net profit margin of 46.8% in 2Q25, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [8] Financial Summary - The projected revenue for Guizhou Moutai is expected to grow from 170,899 million yuan in 2024 to 204,778 million yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates decreasing from 15.7% to 4.5% [7] - Net profit is projected to increase from 86,228 million yuan in 2024 to 103,676 million yuan in 2027, with a similar trend in growth rates [7] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 92% over the forecast period, while the net margin is projected to slightly decline [7] Market Position - Guizhou Moutai continues to strengthen its market position through ongoing reforms and digital marketing initiatives, such as the "i Moutai" platform, which generated 108 billion yuan in revenue in 1H25 [8] - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a low debt ratio of 14.8%, indicating solid financial health [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 174.144 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.66%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 86.228 billion yuan, up 15.38% year-on-year [2][6] - In Q4 2024, the total revenue was 51.022 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.77%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 25.401 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.21% [2][6] - The revenue from Moutai liquor reached 145.928 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 15.28% year-on-year, while the revenue from series liquor was 24.684 billion yuan, up 19.65% year-on-year [11] - The company continues to maintain strong cash flow, with cash received from sales and services amounting to 182.645 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.57% [11] Summary by Sections Revenue Analysis - The revenue from direct sales was 74.843 billion yuan, increasing by 11.32% year-on-year, while wholesale revenue was 95.769 billion yuan, up 19.73% year-on-year. The direct sales channel accounted for 43.87% of total revenue, a decrease of 1.8% year-on-year [11] - The "i Moutai" digital marketing platform generated 20.024 billion yuan in revenue, down 10.51% year-on-year, likely due to the delisting of Moutai 1935 from the platform in Q4 2024 [11] Profitability - The net profit margin for 2024 was 49.52%, a slight decrease of 0.12 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross profit margin was 92.08%, down 0.04 percentage points year-on-year [11] - The company plans to maintain a cash dividend payout ratio of around 75% for 2024, in line with its previously disclosed dividend plan for 2024-2026 [11] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain strong growth, with projected EPS of 73.98 yuan and 80.40 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 21 and 19 times [11]