Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has reached a new low, reflecting a significant decline in the high-end liquor market, with the company facing challenges in maintaining its performance amidst changing consumer trends and market conditions [1][4]. Price Trends - As of September 14, 2025, the wholesale reference price for 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai has dropped to 1770 RMB, a decrease of 10 RMB from the previous day, marking a new low since its listing [1]. - The price has fallen over 20% compared to the platform's initial pricing of 2220 RMB and 2255 RMB [1]. - On September 12, a double bottle of Feitian Moutai was priced at 3400 RMB on Pinduoduo, equating to 1700 RMB per bottle [2]. Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, Guizhou Moutai reported total revenue of 91.094 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, and a net profit of 45.403 billion RMB, up 8.89% [4]. - Revenue from Moutai liquor reached 75.589 billion RMB, growing by 10.24%, while series liquor revenue was 13.763 billion RMB, increasing by 4.69% [4]. - Both product categories experienced a decline in gross margin, with decreases of 0.3 percentage points and 2.5 percentage points, respectively [4]. Market Strategy - Guizhou Moutai's board member Wang Li emphasized the company's commitment to long-term strategies in response to market uncertainties, focusing on optimizing market strategies and maintaining channel stability [2]. - The company has observed a significant recovery in terminal sales since August, indicating a positive trend leading into the traditional liquor sales season during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Insights - The white liquor sector is showing signs of bottoming out, with the upcoming peak season expected to improve the fundamentals. The report highlights the long-term value of leading brands such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, while also identifying short-term elastic stocks like Luzhou Laojiao and Jiangsu Yanghe [1][2]. - In the beverage segment, Budweiser plans to expand its investment in Xiamen, while Baijiu's major shareholder is transferring shares, indicating confidence in the future of the company. The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-growth stocks and market leaders in the beverage sector [3]. - The snack industry is experiencing rapid growth, with the number of stores for "Mingming Hen Mang" surpassing 20,000. The report notes that the milk price is stabilizing, which may lead to opportunities in the dairy sector post-harvest season [4]. Summary by Sections White Liquor - Kweichow Moutai is leading the industry with a focus on product and channel transformation, aiming for market recovery as the peak season approaches. The report anticipates a gradual improvement in the fundamentals of the white liquor sector [2]. Beer and Beverage - Budweiser's strategic upgrade includes consolidating its operations in the Asia-Pacific region. The report suggests monitoring the recovery of the restaurant sector and the performance of leading beer brands like Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer [3]. Snacks and Dairy - The snack market is characterized by intense competition, with leading brands leveraging scale and supply chain advantages. The report also notes a slight recovery in raw milk prices, indicating potential growth in the dairy sector [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company is focused on maintaining market stability and channel collaboration amidst industry cycle adjustments and changing consumer trends, emphasizing a long-term strategy for sustainable development [1][2]. Group 1: Market Strategy and Pricing - The company is actively managing product releases and market strategies to counteract price declines, particularly for its flagship product, Feitian Moutai, which has seen prices drop below 1800 yuan [1]. - The company plans to adapt to rational consumption trends by innovating marketing models, expanding consumption scenarios, and upgrading its product system [2]. Group 2: Channel Management and Partnerships - The company is prioritizing the stability and sustainable development of its channel partners, enhancing channel resilience during market adjustments to foster a healthy market environment [2]. - The decline in contract liabilities reflects the enthusiasm of distributors, indicating a need for improved channel management and collaboration [2]. Group 3: Production Capacity and Investment - The company is investing approximately 15.516 billion yuan in the "14th Five-Year Plan" for technical upgrades, which will add about 19,800 tons of annual production capacity and 84,700 tons of storage capacity [2]. - Future capacity release will be carefully planned, considering ecological sustainability, skill development, and market conditions [2]. Group 4: Consumer Engagement and Market Trends - The company is focusing on expanding white liquor consumption scenarios, aiming to deepen customer engagement and transform product, channel, and terminal strategies [3]. - Recent market trends show a significant recovery in terminal sales since August, indicating a positive outlook for the market [3]. Group 5: Shareholder Considerations - The company is open to discussing the potential for stock splits, acknowledging mixed opinions among shareholders regarding the benefits and drawbacks of such a move [3].

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai held a performance briefing for the first half of 2025, addressing investor concerns regarding the price fluctuations of Feitian Moutai, annual performance targets, and overseas market expansion [1] Group 1: Sales Performance and Market Strategy - The sales of Feitian Moutai have shown a significant recovery in August compared to June and July, with a notable increase in terminal sales since the end of August [3] - As of September 12, the price of 25-year Feitian Moutai was quoted at 1780 yuan, a decrease of approximately 35% compared to the 2400 yuan price of the 24-year product last year [3] - The company aims for a 9% annual growth target, which is a reduction from the previous five-year average of 15%, reflecting a comprehensive consideration of industry conditions and corporate development [3] Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, the company achieved revenue of 91.094 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, and a net profit of 45.403 billion yuan, up 8.89%, aligning with market expectations [3] - There was a significant fluctuation in contract liabilities, with pre-received payments of 5.507 billion yuan, a decrease of over 42% from the beginning of the year, indicating weakened willingness among distributors to stock products [3] Group 3: Product Innovation and Market Expansion - The company has been active in product innovation, enhancing the iMoutai digital marketing platform and launching new products such as kilogram packaging of Feitian Moutai and commemorative wines [4] - The sales growth of the Moutai 1935 series slowed to 4.69% in the first half of the year, despite achieving over 12 billion yuan in sales last year, with ongoing price discrepancies in the market [4] - The company is focusing on international market development, particularly in Singapore, Australia, and Japan, to accelerate its global expansion [4]

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai is facing multiple pressures from industry cycle adjustments and changing consumer trends, but the company is committed to maintaining market stability and promoting sustainable high-quality development [1] Group 1: Market Performance - An investor raised concerns about the price of Feitian Moutai dropping below 1800 yuan before the Mid-Autumn Festival [1] - The company is actively optimizing market strategies and product placements to respond to current market trends [1] Group 2: Company Strategy - Guizhou Moutai emphasizes a long-term perspective, focusing on market and consumer needs while addressing uncertainties with its own certainties [1] - The company aims to maintain the resilience of its channel ecosystem and ensure good collaboration within the market [1]

Group 1 - The meeting between Moutai and Wuliangye focused on discussing the current challenges and future development of the Chinese liquor industry, emphasizing the importance of collaboration and mutual support during the cyclical adjustments [2][3][4] - Both companies acknowledged the need for a united front to navigate the current cyclical adjustments in the liquor industry, committing to enhance their cooperative mechanisms for high-quality development [4][5] - Moutai's General Manager Wang Li highlighted the importance of a rational perspective on the current cycle, advocating for long-term collaboration and the cultivation of a healthy consumption ecosystem within the industry [5][6] Group 2 - The two companies proposed a framework for collaboration that includes building a stable development environment, fostering innovation, and promoting green development within the industry [6][7] - Moutai and Wuliangye's commitment to avoiding internal competition and fostering a cooperative development ecosystem is seen as a model for the industry, aiming to enhance market order and brand value [6][7] - Moutai's proactive engagement with other leading companies, such as BYD and Huawei, reflects a broader strategy to integrate technological innovation into the liquor industry, supporting its transformation and internationalization [7][8]

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 红鑫24 来源：雪球 请持有白酒的朋友理性讨论 。 先上观点: 白酒业绩成长性面临永久性下滑甚至停滞 ， 再也不会回到过去 。 长按即可参与 就行业长期趋势而言 ， 投资逻辑 ， 不如品牌中药 。 头部业绩都出来了 ， 行业集中度继续提升 ， 但空间远不如过去了 ， 体现在增速上就是下滑 。 五粮液 ， 基本已经进入利润增长停滞状态 ， 5%的增速也是千方百计整出来的 。 高端白酒疲态尽显 ， 已是不争的事实 。 三线酒企的业绩和股价 ， 至少5年内 ， 回不到21年的高点 。 洋河 ， 被两面夹击 ， 上有老窖 和五粮液 ， 下有汾酒和今世缘 ， 短期也不用看 。 这轮调整 ， 伴随着国内固定资产投资见顶后持续走低 ， 这是大背景 。 在房地产没有见底前 ， 行业不会有多好 ， 这基本是确定的 。 个人预计 ， 必须等房地产见底 ， 新一轮刺激政策出台 后才具备投资时机 。 现在估值合理 ， 但说特别便宜绝对没有 。 很多人对白酒的认识还停留在静态和过去的业绩里 ， 但行业大背景和发展阶段早已不如过去 。 这轮大周 ...