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Kweichow Moutai (.SS)_ Distributor conference_ 2024 goals achieved; Modestly increasing Feitian wholesaler quota for 2025; Buy
Digift· 2024-12-30 07:22
Kweichow Moutai (600519.SS): Distributor conference: 2024 goals achieved; Modestly increasing Feitian wholesaler quota for 2025; Buy Leaf Liu +852-3966-4169 | leaf.liu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Hongda Zhong +852-2978-2300 | hongda.zhong@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Christina Liu +852-2978-6983 | christina.liu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Julia Mu +852-2978-1219 | julia.mu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Valerie Zhou +852-2978-0820 | valerie.zhou@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. n S ...
Americas Business & Information Services_ What's Powering Your Services Recap - 12_27_24
-· 2024-12-30 07:22
Industry and Company Key Points **1. Information Services Sector**: * The Information Services sector saw an average increase of +1% this week and +11% YTD. * Top movers included MCO (+3%), SPGI (+3%), CSGP (+2%), CLVT (+2%), and FDS (+2%). * Investors had mixed views on credit bureaus, with slightly negative feedback on EFX and TRU and more positive feedback on EXPN. * FactSet consensus estimates for 2025 mortgage revenue and EBITDA margin at EFX and TRU were considered overly elevated. **2. CoStar Group (CSGP, Buy)**: * Homes.com online traffic accelerated in y/y growth over the past three months, surpassing traffic growth at Zillow. * CSGP's residential revenue is expected to increase from $46mn in 2023 to $300mn+ by 2026, representing an 85%+ 3-year CAGR. * CSGP's residential business is expected to drive robust earnings growth and valuation upside, with EBITDA margins expanding from 8% in 2024 to 27% in 2026 and 40% over the medium-term. **3. Bright Horizons Family Solutions (BFAM, Buy)**: * Kastle swipe data shows an ongoing recovery in return-to-office, which is positive for BFAM's child care center occupancy rates. * BFAM's child care center occupancy rates are expected to increase from low-60s in 2024 to ~65% in 2025 and ~70% in 2026. * BFAM's NTM P/E multiple of 27x based on FactSet consensus compares favorably to the 10-year average of 34x. **4. KinderCare (KLC, Buy)**: * Kastle swipe data shows an ongoing recovery in return-to-office, which is positive for KLC's child care center occupancy rates. * KLC's child care center occupancy rates are expected to increase from 69% in 2024 to ~70% in 2025 and ~71% in 2026. * KLC's valuation upside is leveraged to its differentiated focus on community-based centers and targeting of customers across all income demographics. **5. Robert Half (RHI)**: * Investors expressed cautious sentiment on RHI due to risks from AI and the impact on revenue. * There is a high probability that RHI will not achieve FactSet consensus EPS expectations of $4/shr by 2026. **6. Korn Ferry (KFY)**: * Investors expressed positive sentiment on KFY, given its insulation from AI risks with its focus on recruiting for executive roles. * KFY's 8% sell-off in response to F2Q earnings earlier this month presents an attractive buying opportunity. **7. Staffing Industry**: * The Staffing industry saw an average increase of +1% this week and +13% YTD. * Top movers included NATL (+10%), BV (+3%), KFY (+3%), BFAM (+2%), and VSTS (-4%). * Staffing revenue demonstrated signs of stability, including positive growth in exec search and narrowing y/y declines in RPO and professional search & interim. **8. Business Services**: * The Business Services sector saw an average increase of +1% this week and +13% YTD. * Top movers included NATL (+10%), BV (+3%), KFY (+3%), BFAM (+2%), and VSTS (-4%). * Investors had negative feedback on RHI and positive feedback on KFY. **9. Diversified Business Services**: * The Diversified Business Services sector saw an average increase of +1% this week and +13% YTD. * Top movers included NATL (+10%), BV (+3%), KFY (+3%), BFAM (+2%), and VSTS (-4%). * Investors had negative feedback on RHI and positive feedback on KFY. **10. Macro Developments**: * The Consumer Confidence Index decreased to 104.7 in December from 112.8 in November. * Initial jobless claims decreased to 219k for the week ending 12/21 from 220k the prior week. * The tightening labor market is incrementally positive for temp staffers MAN and RHI.
Montage (.SS)_ Rising DDR5 penetration rate; MRCD_ MDB and CKD chipsets ramp up in 2025E; Buy
DDI· 2024-12-30 07:22
Source: Refinitiv Eikon Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 26 Dec 2024 close. Company-specific regulatory disclosures Additional disclosures required under the laws and regulations of jurisdictions other than the United States This research is for our clients only. Other than disclosures relating to Goldman Sachs, this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be r ...
China Equity Strategy_ A-Share Sentiment Dropped as Market Volume Receded
-· 2024-12-30 07:22
Exhibit 6: ChiNext turnover (scaled to 0-100% based on the percentage away from its high and low levels since January 2014) vs. CSI 300 Exhibit 7: Equity futures turnover (vs. three months ago; scaled to 0-100% based on the percentage away from its high and low 300 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Mar-14Oct-14May-15Dec-15Jul-16Feb-17Sep-17Apr-18Nov-18Jun-19Jan-20Aug-20Mar-21Oct-21May-22Dec-22Jul-23Feb-24Sep-24 RSI-30D* CSI300 (RHS) -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Mar-14Sep-14Mar-15Sep-15Ma ...
Novo Nordisk_ Weekly US diabetes & obesity market tracker
USAID· 2024-12-30 07:22
Equity Research European Pharmaceuticals & Life Sciences 27 December 2024 Novo Nordisk Weekly US diabetes & obesity market tracker Implications for Novo in 4Q24: IQVIA data reported 7.60mn/0.78mn/2.69mn TRx for Ozempic/ Rybelsus and Wegovy, respectively, in 3Q24. Based on the weekly data QTD and conservatively assuming flat to 1% w/w growth for the balance of the quarter, we expect 4Q24 total written scripts to come in at ~7.64mn/ 0.75mn/ 2.90mn for Ozempic/Rybelsus/Wegovy (+0.5% /-3.7% / +7.8% growth q/q). ...
China Technology_ Geopolitical dynamics on mature node semis_ US Section 301 investigation and international IDMs’ local-for-local strategies. Thu Dec 26 2024
-· 2024-12-30 07:22
J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 26 December 2024 See page 4 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Important Disclosures Th ...
Asia Vital Components_ Near-term outlook impacted by GB200 delay. Thu Dec 26 2024
-· 2024-12-30 07:22
Asia Pacific Equity Research 26 December 2024 J P M O R G A N We revise down our 1Q25 estimates for AVC to factor in the delayed shipment schedule of GB200 components. Our new estimates suggest 5% QoQ decline in 1Q25 (vs. Bloomberg consensus of +2% QoQ rev in 1Q25), given a smaller contribution liquid cooling products, as we now assume more meaningful shipments of GB200 components will be delayed at least until late 1Q25 (component-level schedule). For 2H25 and 2026, we remain positive and keep our estimate ...
China Internet_ 1,417 Games Approved in 2024; 122_13 Domestic_Imported Games in Dec; 2 Games Each for Tencent & NetEase
Applause· 2024-12-30 07:22
27 Dec 2024 06:51:23 ET │ 10 pages 1,417 Games Approved in 2024; 122/13 Domestic/Imported Games in Dec; 2 Games Each for Tencent & NetEase | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | Alicia Yap, CFA AC +852-2501-2773 alicia.yap@citi.com | | | | Nelson Cheung +852-2501-2728 nelson.cheung@citi.com | | | Highlights from domestic game batch and amendment note – 109/11/1/1 mobile/cross-platform/PC/console games were approved, including: 1) Anant ...
Fund Flow Insights_ Flows turned mostly negative as US ETFs saw redemptions
ETF· 2024-12-30 07:22
V i e w p o i n t | Fund Flow Insights CITI'S TAKE US$1.1bn outflow from EM funds — EM funds saw another week of outflow as US$1.3bn left China funds for the second week. GEM funds however enjoyed a small inflow of US$0.7bn. | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------|-------|-------|-------|------------------------------------| | Figure 1. Latest flows in DM and EM equ ...
US REITs & Lodging Fund Flow Insights_ Fund Flows Insights_ Total Weekly Outflows of ~$743m
Flywheel飞未· 2024-12-30 07:22
Jan-06Oct-06Jul-07Apr-08 Jan-09Oct-09Jul-10Apr-11 Jan-12Oct-12Jul-13Apr-14 Jan-15Oct-15Jul-16Apr-17 Jan-18Oct-18Jul-19Apr-20 Jan-21Oct-21Jul-22Apr-23 Jan-24Oct-24 V i e w p o i n t | US REITs & Lodging Fund Flow Insights 26 December 2024 Citi Research Real Estate Fund Flows | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------|--------|----------|----------| | Figure 1. Breakdown of Weekly and 2024 Fund Flows ($ millions) \nUS Registe ...