Core Viewpoint - The market profitability is expected to continue recovering by 2026, with liquidity remaining loose, shifting the core market driver from valuation to profitability [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Traditional growth momentum and emerging industries are expected to work in tandem, leading to improved competition in traditional sectors and a rebound in domestic inflation levels [1] - Fiscal policies are anticipated to create new demand in the domestic market, while the resonance of domestic and international technology industries will accelerate capital inflow into emerging sectors [1] Group 2: Industry Structure - The technology sector is projected to maintain high profit growth due to expanding capital expenditures in artificial intelligence, although the valuation gap between the tech industry and the overall market has widened, making further valuation increases challenging [1] - Traditional sectors such as consumption, cyclical, and manufacturing industries are expected to see gradual profit growth recovery, with certain supply-demand balanced industries showing significant profit elasticity [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - There is increasing market and policy focus on new productive forces, with expectations that more emerging industries will be influenced by domestic policies in 2026, creating additional investment opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The chief strategist of Industrial Securities, Zhang Qiyao, indicates that the recovery of fundamentals is expected to support further market growth by 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - By analyzing the performance of listed companies in the first three quarters of 2025, it is observed that revenue has stabilized, but gross margins are still declining, indicating that pricing remains a major drag on profitability [1] - Since the second half of 2025, policies promoting "de-involution" have led to a rebound in prices in resource sectors, which has contributed to an improvement in gross margins [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - For 2026, nominal economic recovery and price increases are expected to be the most evident trends in the market [1] - According to the latest IMF forecast, China's nominal GDP growth rate in USD terms is projected to reach 6.45% in 2026, significantly higher than in 2025, with continued improvement in listed company profits [1] - The ongoing global liquidity easing is likely to result in a sustained upward trend in the A-share market in 2026 [1] Group 3: Industry Configuration - The market is currently in a structural recovery phase in 2025, with significant differentiation in industry prosperity, leading to a focus on eliminating weaker sectors [1] - As more industries enter the profitability recovery phase in 2026, the market allocation logic may shift from internal competition within sectors to identifying superior industries [1] - Key areas of focus for investment include trends in the AI industry, the "price increase chain," the "overseas expansion chain," and the structural recovery of domestic demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, the global debt issue will present three main solutions: real growth exceeding real interest rates (growth-based debt reduction), inflation exceeding expectations (inflation-based debt reduction), and fiscal tightening (fiscal-based debt reduction). Both AI and gold are expected to benefit from these paths, forming a dual mainline logic for asset performance [1] Group 1: A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" pattern in 2026, driven by a profound change in corporate profit structures despite ongoing weakness in real estate, infrastructure, consumption, social financing, and PPI [1] - The net asset return on equity (ROE) for non-financial enterprises in the A-share market has stabilized over several quarters, with profits from eight advanced manufacturing industries now accounting for 38% of total profits [1] - Companies with overseas operations have seen their overseas revenue share increase to 20%, with overseas market gross margins exceeding domestic margins by 5 percentage points, which may drive a rebound in overall A-share ROE after stabilization [1] Group 2: Investment Directions - Investment focus should be on industries with constrained supply and clear prosperity trends, such as the AI industry chain, which has strong capital expenditure demand and limited short-term supply release [1] - Other sectors to consider include energy storage and metals, which have undergone capacity clearing [1] - Tactically, it is recommended to utilize market adjustments to position for the spring rally, prioritizing the aforementioned high-prosperity sectors [1]

申万宏源研究A股策略首席分析师傅静涛表示，2025年是典型的"结构牛"，2026年下半年则有望迎 来"全面牛"。 傅静涛提出，A股牛市行情遵循"两段论"规律：2013年迎来结构牛，随后就是2015年的全面牛；2016— 2017年迎来结构牛，随后就是2020—2021年的全面牛。在结构牛阶段，机构对核心板块的持仓与估值同 步触及首轮高位，叠加机构赚钱效应完成从量变到质变的积累。进入全面牛阶段，核心产业趋势进一步 升级，基本面改善的领域持续扩容，再与增量资金形成正向循环，最终使得估值提升到历史高位的赛道 明显增加。 傅静涛认为，2026年下半年可能迎来"全面牛"。基本面周期性改善、科技产业趋势新阶段演绎以及增量 资金流入正循环，构成全面牛的基本盘。A股将拥抱全球"竞争思维"，中国外循环从"跟跑"到"领跑"， 外循环取得突破，打开了中国发展转型空间。 他表示，2026年牛市的领涨主线，将聚焦在三大方向：AI产业趋势从算力向应用延伸，机器人产业实 现突破，储能、光伏领域等中国先进制造重估。顺周期与价值板块，大概率在2026年上半年的市场休整 阶段占相对优势，其中，周期领域的超额收益可重点关注基础化工、工业金属赛道。 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS Securities analyst Meng Lei forecasts that by 2026, nominal GDP growth and a narrowing decline in PPI will drive corporate revenue growth, with overall A-share company profit growth expected to rise to 8% [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The current equity risk premium in the A-share market remains above historical averages, while other emerging markets are significantly below long-term averages [1] - Mid-term macro policies, accelerated A-share profit growth, declining risk-free interest rates, and continuous inflow of long-term funds into the stock market will support further valuation increases in the A-share market [1] Group 2: Investment Themes - Four key investment themes for 2026 are identified: 1. The main theme of technological self-reliance 2. The consumer sector, with corporate profit acceleration expected to gradually boost household income and sales expenses, suggesting a strategic layout in the second half of the year 3. Sectors related to "anti-involution" 4. The pathway of Chinese enterprises going global and enhancing global competitiveness [1] Group 3: Style Allocation - Due to the positive mid-term market outlook, the "growth" style is likely to outperform the "value" style - With the ongoing "anti-involution" process, a narrowing decline in PPI and accelerated industrial profit growth suggest that the "cyclical" style may outperform the "defensive" style, with large and small-cap sectors expected to maintain a relatively balanced stance in 2026 [1]

Group 1 - The core view is that A-shares remain a favored asset for investment, supported by valuation, fundamentals, and liquidity factors [1] - From a valuation perspective, the current equity risk premium of A-shares is considered to be within a reasonable range [1] - The fundamental outlook is improving due to the implementation of domestic policies, leading to noticeable enhancements in certain economic indicators [1] Group 2 - The liquidity environment is favorable, with ongoing economic recovery in China and a continuous influx of funds into the stock market driven by increased asset allocation needs from residents [1] - Global allocation funds still have relatively low positions in A-shares, and a weakening US dollar alongside a strengthening RMB will facilitate foreign capital inflow into A-shares [1] - The rise of new productive forces is expected to drive A-share valuations higher, indicating a good opportunity for investment in A-shares [1] Group 3 - The AI industry is identified as a clear trend, with short-term adjustments potentially providing good investment opportunities [2] - Chinese technology products are gaining global attention, which may enhance investor confidence in the application of AI technology [2] - The overall valuation of US stocks is perceived as high, particularly in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices, but a potential "soft landing" for the US economy could maintain a neutral outlook on US stocks [2] Group 4 - Gold is viewed as a valuable investment, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and ongoing global central bank purchases of gold, suggesting further upside potential [2]

Group 1 - The core view is that the Hong Kong stock market in 2026 will experience valuation contraction combined with profit growth, with leading sectors identified as those undergoing bottom reversal and those benefiting from strengthened industrial trends or long-term logic [1] - The technology sector is highlighted for its mid-to-long-term investment value, with short-term pullbacks providing better allocation opportunities for investors [1] - Key indices such as the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hang Seng Index show a long-term upward momentum, and the current short-term pullback is seen as a favorable entry point from an institutional allocation perspective [1] Group 2 - The fundamentals driving the Hong Kong technology sector are clear, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect gathering core domestic AI assets across the entire industry chain, including computing power, models, software applications, and hardware terminals [2] - The emergence of DeepSeek is expected to reposition Chinese technology companies in the global competitive landscape, leading to a reassessment of investment opportunities by domestic and foreign investors, which may narrow the valuation gap between Chinese and U.S. tech stocks [2] - It is anticipated that southbound capital will continue to flow into the Hong Kong stock market in 2026, supported by the correlation of Hong Kong stocks with overseas liquidity and the expected continuation of a loose monetary trend following the Federal Reserve's new rate cut cycle starting in September 2025 [2]

2026年伊始，多地召开"新年第一会"，聚焦优化营商环境、招商引资、人工智能（AI）、"AI+制造"等 关键词。 纵观各地"新年第一会"，许多地区展现出强大的战略定力。例如，上海连续多年聚焦营商环境主题，表 明优化营商环境是持之以恒的系统工程。部分地区则突出科技创新赋能产业发展，例如，苏州推 出"AI+制造"八大行动，加快建设"智造之城"；温州努力实现"在温州看见创新中国"。 上海发布优化营商环境9.0版方案 会上通报辽宁全省2025年优化营商环境工作完成情况，发布《辽宁省大力优化营商环境行动方案（2026 版）》。 多地强调智造强市 "最强地级市"苏州聚焦新型工业化，在"新年第一会"上强调"AI+制造"。苏州市新型工业化推进会议 暨"AI+制造"创新发展大会1月4日举行，会上发布了"苏州市推进"AI+制造"八大行动（2026年）"。 上海1月4日上午召开2026年全市优化营商环境大会。上海市委书记陈吉宁指出，打造国际一流营商环境 是一项系统工程。要进一步优化工作机制，发挥整体效能。要强化问题的主动发现和解决机制，及时跟 进新技术、新业态、新模式，强化对共性问题、重点问题和突出问题的评估分析，推动从"解决一个 ...

上海1月4日上午召开2026年全市优化营商环境大会。上海市委书记陈吉宁指出，打造国际一流营商环境 是一项系统工程。要进一步优化工作机制，发挥整体效能。要强化问题的主动发现和解决机制，及时跟 进新技术、新业态、新模式，强化对共性问题、重点问题和突出问题的评估分析，推动从"解决一个问 题"上升为"解决一类问题"，以深化改革、创新制度的思路和办法，形成优化营商环境的政策和举措， 动态提升营商环境质量。 2026年伊始，多地召开"新年第一会"，聚焦优化营商环境、招商引资、人工智能（AI）、"AI+制造"等 关键词。 纵观各地"新年第一会"，许多地区展现出强大的战略定力。例如，上海连续多年聚焦营商环境主题，表 明优化营商环境是持之以恒的系统工程。部分地区则突出科技创新赋能产业发展，例如，苏州推 出"AI+制造"八大行动，加快建设"智造之城"；温州努力实现"在温州看见创新中国"。 上海发布优化营商环境9.0版方案 会上通报辽宁全省2025年优化营商环境工作完成情况，发布《辽宁省大力优化营商环境行动方案（2026 版）》。 多地强调智造强市 "最强地级市"苏州聚焦新型工业化，在"新年第一会"上强调"AI+制造"。苏州市新型 ...

重点关注 全球市场"黑天鹅" 对于原油市场，兴业期货表示，此次美委军事冲突预计将对全球原油市场形成短多长空的影响。短期 看，尽管委内瑞拉产量、出口占全球比重均有限，但因事件关注度高，地缘风险溢价或仍将触发，可能 推动国际油价在周一开盘上涨5—10美元/桶。中期看，2026年一、二季度全球原油市场本身面临较大的 供应过剩压力。在全球经济需求前景疲弱、陆上及海上原油库存高企的背景下，油价驱动将重归基本 面。长期视角下，若美资石油公司进入委内瑞拉并修复油田，该国原油产能中长期或提升，为全球市场 带来新的供应增量，加剧远期供需平衡的压力。 对于美元，兴业期货认为，短期看，本次事件可能通过风险情绪短期推升美元指数。但是委内瑞拉经济 与金融体量有限，且长期受到美国制裁，对美元的影响更多体现在情绪层面。从中、长期看，美联储降 息预期、美元流动性、美元信用对美元指数走势的影响更大。 宏观 要闻 国常会：部署复制推广跨境贸易便利化专项行动政策措施 2025年12月31日召开的国务院常务会议，听取国家水网建设情况汇报；部署复制推广跨境贸易便利化专 项行动政策措施；审议通过《供水条例（草案）》和《中华人民共和国药品管理法实施条例（ ...