在匯豐控股（00005）正股現價136.5元的技術框架下，市場當前呈現出明確的結構性特徵。技術分析顯示合理活動範圍介於134.8元至143.5元之間，技術支持區域落在 129.6元至134.8元，而技術阻力區域則位於143.5元至147.6元水平。此技術座標為認購證的行使價分布提供了重要的參考基準。 從行使價結構區間分析來看，市場產品分布呈現明顯集中態勢。價內主力區間（日常波段工具）共有26隻產品，行使價範圍118元至134.09元；深價內區間 （趨勢替代正股）擁有25隻產品，行使價86.797元至114.18元；遠價外區間（情緒尾部風險）則有23隻產品，行使價148元至192.08元。其餘輕微價內、貼近 平價和中價外區間產品數量相對較少，顯示市場產品布局主要集中於價內與遠價外兩個極端。 街貨分布分析揭示市場共識呈現明顯的兩極化特徵。深價內區間街貨量高達207.53億份，佔總街貨量的66.3%，顯示大量資金沉澱於深度價內區域。遠價外 區間街貨量45.1億份，佔比14.4%，價內主力區間街貨量49.23億份，佔比15.7%。這種分布表明市場存在單一區間過度集中現象，深價內區間街貨集中度顯 著偏高，反映投資者傾向 ...

机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：林起贤/夏嘉励 事件： 公司发布盈利预警：1）预计25 年调整后归母净利润为8-9 亿元，低于预期，较24 年调整后归母净利润 11.4 亿元（新丽传媒3.4 亿元，在线业务+阅文自有版权运营业务8 亿元）对应同比下滑21-30%。2）预 计25 年调整前归母净亏损为7.5-8.5 亿元，同比24 年亏损扩大；主要由于新丽传媒计提商誉减值约18 亿 元。 投资要点： 新丽传媒项目波动导致公司25 年利润下滑。一方面，部分剧集延期，25 年全年仅上线2部剧（《扫毒风 暴》《哑舍》）；另一方面，电影《情圣3》亏损，根据猫眼专业版，总票房仅4262 万。新丽传媒仍然 为国内头部剧集制作公司，26 年已上线剧集《年少有为》，关注后续项目排播。新丽传媒25 年已计提 剩余全部商誉减值，减值支出不影响调整后利润口径，不影响现金流。 在线业务及阅文自有版权运营业务25 年基本符合预期。阅文作为付费网文领军，在线业务预计平稳。 公司当前核心看点版权运营业务25 年增速较好，经营向上。衍生品、短剧、漫剧等更"短平快"的IP 变 现方式，可平滑长剧电影产品周期波动。 漫剧等有助于阅文从"爆款驱动"转向 ...

Core Viewpoint - Wynn Macau's Q4 2025 performance fell short of Visible Alpha consensus expectations, with net revenue of $968 million, a year-on-year increase of 4% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 3%, recovering to 87% of Q4 2019 levels [1] Performance Review - Q4 2025 adjusted property EBITDA was $271 million, down 7% year-on-year and down 12% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 78% of Q4 2019 levels, which was below the $298 million consensus expectation [1] - The decline in total gaming revenue market share from 13.0% in Q3 2025 to 12.0% in Q4 2025 contributed to the underperformance [1] - The win rate was below expectations, and daily operating costs along with the reinvestment rate at Wynn Palace were relatively high [1] Development Trends - Based on hotel booking outlook, the company anticipates a strong performance during the 2026 Spring Festival, aided by the new 63,000 square feet Chairman's Club gaming area at Wynn Palace [1] - Strong business trends are expected to continue into 2026, with January 2026 business volume exceeding that of Q4 2026 [1] - Despite a competitive marketing rebate environment in the Macau gaming industry, the overall situation has stabilized, with the high-end segment continuing to drive industry growth [1] - Management believes AI will have a dual positive impact on demand growth (wealth creation for customers) and cost control (AI-based reinvestment rates, operational cost efficiency, and product visibility) [1] - Capital expenditures for 2026 are projected to be between $400 million and $450 million, with some projects pending government approval [1] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains EBITDA forecasts for 2026 and 2027, currently trading at 7x 2026e EV/EBITDA [2] - The company maintains an outperform rating and a target price of HKD 7.20, corresponding to 8x 2026e EV/EBITDA, indicating an 18% upside from the current stock price [2]

2026年1月，本公司未引进飞机，退出1架B737系列飞机。截至2026年1月末，本公司合计运营825架飞 机。 格隆汇2月13日丨中国东航(600115.SH)公布，公司2026年1月客运运力投入（按可用座公里计）同比下 降3.54%；旅客周转量（按客运人公里计）同比下降1.03%；客座率为85.01%，同比上升2.16个百分点。 2026年1月货邮周转量（按货邮载运吨公里计）同比上升8.33%。 ...

机构：华创证券 研究员：刘一怡 事项： 智能眼镜催化频频，持续看好公司卡位优势。公司积极布局智能眼镜赛道，海外客户合作项目数量持续 增加，现有项目稳步推进，个别重点项目工作重心从前期的产品功能实现和技术路线验证，转向下一步 的扩大生产规模；同时，国内客户个别重点项目已实现产品交付，终端用户反馈良好。近期Meta 上调 Ray-Ban 产能、千问大模型升级，智能眼镜生态硬件协同成型，持续放量可期。 投资建议：镜片制造龙头企业，积极培育智能眼镜第二成长曲线。康耐特光学深耕眼镜制造行业，内外 销齐头并进，结构升级有望带动盈利能力持续改善。 目前公司已和多家头部3C 龙头合作布局智能眼镜，成长可期。考虑到智能眼镜产业链发展提速叠加公 司产品结构稳步向上，我们预计公司25-27 年归母净利润分别为5.6/7.0/8.7 亿元，对应PE 为51/41/33X。 参考可比公司估值，给予26 年估值为43X，维持目标价至69.36 港元，维持"强推"评级。 风险提示：智能眼镜发展不及预期、国内渠道拓展不及预期、行业竞争加剧。 根据公告，固定汇率口径下，依视路陆逊梯卡2025 年实现销售收入285 亿欧元，同比+11%；25Q ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a total revenue of 7.76 billion RMB for 2025, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 2%, while the adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 68% to 2.86 billion RMB, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 2.836 billion RMB [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The gross profit for 2025 was 2.77 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year growth of 3.3%, with a gross margin of 35.7%, an increase of 2 percentage points [1] - Operating profit reached 1.62 billion RMB, up 39% year-over-year, with an operating margin of 21%, an increase of 6 percentage points [1] - The company ended 2025 with cash and bank deposits totaling 13.6 billion RMB [1] Group 2: Business Segments - Online music business revenue was 5.994 billion RMB, showing a year-over-year increase of 12% [1] - Subscription revenue grew by 13.3% to 5.052 billion RMB, driven by an increase in membership scale, although ARPU dilution from changes in membership structure offset some growth [1] - Non-subscription revenue reached 940 million RMB, a year-over-year increase of 5%, while social entertainment revenue declined by 32% to 1.765 billion RMB [1] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing user experience by expanding its music library and iterating algorithms, maintaining a DAU/MAU ratio above 30% [1] - The introduction of Korean labels and the addition of Chinese songs and film soundtracks aim to strengthen the rap and Western music categories [1] - Over 1 million independent musicians have uploaded more than 5.6 million tracks to the library [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - For 2026 and 2027, revenue is projected to reach 8.539 billion RMB and 9.323 billion RMB, representing year-over-year growth of 10% and 9% respectively [2] - Non-GAAP net profit for 2026 and 2027 is expected to be 2.206 billion RMB and 2.561 billion RMB [2] - The company repurchased 910,000 shares for a total of 14.99 million HKD, indicating confidence in its financial position [2]

Core Viewpoint - NetEase Cloud Music reported a slight decline in total revenue for FY25, but adjusted net profit showed significant growth, indicating a mixed financial performance with concerns over revenue growth in online music services and overall gross profit margin [1]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for FY25 decreased by 2% YoY to RMB7.76 billion, slightly below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of RMB7.91 billion [1]. - Adjusted net profit increased by 68% YoY to RMB2.86 billion, aligning with consensus estimates [1]. - Adjusted operating profit grew by 32% YoY to RMB1.73 billion, excluding the impact of deferred income tax credit [1]. Revenue Breakdown - Online music services revenue grew by 8% YoY to RMB3.0 billion in 2H25, a slowdown from 16% YoY growth in 1H25 [2]. - Membership subscription revenue rose by 12% YoY to RMB2.6 billion in 2H25, driven by subscriber base growth but offset by a decline in monthly ARPPU [2]. - Non-subscription music revenue fell by 7% YoY in 2H25, primarily due to decreased revenue from digital album sales [2]. - Revenue from social entertainment and others dropped by 17% YoY to RMB905 million in 2H25, although it stabilized with a 5% HoH growth [2]. Margin Analysis - Overall gross profit margin (GPM) increased by 2.7 percentage points YoY but declined by 1.4 percentage points HoH to 35.0% in 2H25, mainly due to reduced revenue from higher-margin non-subscription business [3]. - Adjusted operating margin improved by 4.6 percentage points YoY to 21.1% in 2H25, attributed to operating leverage and effective expense control [3]. Future Outlook - For FY26E, total revenue is forecasted to increase by 8% YoY to RMB8.4 billion, driven by solid growth in the online music business [4]. - Music subscription revenue is expected to rise by 13% YoY to RMB5.7 billion in FY26E, supported by growth in both subscriber base and ARPPU [4]. - Adjusted operating profit is projected to grow by 19% YoY in FY26E, with operating profit margin increasing by 2 percentage points YoY [4].

业绩预计持续健康增长。我们预计2025-2027 年公司收入分别为27.4/29.8/32.5亿美元，同比分别 +11%/+9%/+9%，主要系产能扩张和品类丰富驱动。同时伴随着产业链效率+订单结构优化，预计未来 公司盈利质量平稳有升，我们预计2025~2027 年公司归母净利润分别为2.32/2.65/2.97 亿美元，同比分别 增长15.7%/14.2%/12.0%，利润增速预计持续快于收入。 高分红具备吸引力。公司现金流稳定，2017~2023 年公司派息比例多在30%~50%之间，2024 年派息比 例提升至70%，公司表示基于目前对于未来现金流的预期，我们估计未来股息派付仍有提升空间。 投资建议。我们认为公司合理股价区间9.15~9.57 港元，对应2026 年PE 为12.6~13.2 倍（（前前股价对 应 2026 年 PE 为 10.3 倍），空间 23%~29%。结合 DCF模型及公司相对估值水平，首次覆盖，给予"买 入"评级。 风险提示：产能扩张风险；行业竞争加剧风险；经济环境及订单波动风险；测算误差风险。 机构：国盛证券 研究员：杨莹/侯子夜/王佳伟 公司是服饰制造行业龙头之一，未来业务 ...

Core Insights - Budweiser APAC achieved a total revenue of $5.764 billion in 2025, with an organic year-on-year decline of 6.1% [1] - The normalized EBITDA for 2025 was $1.588 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 9.8% [1] - In Q4 2025, revenue reached $1.073 billion, with an organic year-on-year decline of 4.2% [1] Revenue and EBITDA Analysis - For the full year 2025, the company reported a sales volume of 7.9658 million kiloliters, down 6.0% year-on-year, while Q4 sales volume was 1.3518 million kiloliters, down 0.7% [1] - The revenue per hectoliter for the full year 2025 decreased by 0.2%, and for Q4, it decreased by 3.5% [1] - The gross margin for 2025 was 50.1%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points year-on-year, while the normalized EBITDA margin was 27.6%, a decrease of 1.13 percentage points year-on-year [1] Regional Performance - In the Western Asia-Pacific region, Q4 2025 sales volume showed a slight organic growth of 0.1%, but revenue and revenue per hectoliter declined by 5.6% and 5.7% respectively, with normalized EBITDA down 40.0% [2] - India emerged as a growth highlight, with high-end and super high-end products accounting for over two-thirds of total revenue and contributing over 20% to revenue growth [2] - In the Eastern Asia-Pacific region, Q4 2025 revenue showed a slight organic decline of 0.6%, with sales volume down 3.7% but revenue per hectoliter up 3.2% [2] China Market Focus - The Chinese market faced continued pressure, with Q4 2025 sales volume down 3.9% due to weak on-premise channels and delayed Lunar New Year shipments [3] - The company plans to increase investment in channel and product mix expansion, with Q4 2025 revenue down 11.4% year-on-year [3] - The company aims to revitalize its market share in China as a core focus for 2026, with strategies including enhancing high-end and digital channel penetration [4] Future Strategies and Forecasts - For 2026, the company will increase commercial investment as a percentage of net revenue, focusing on core and emerging channels [4] - The profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been revised down to $621 million and $680 million respectively, reflecting a decrease of 9% and 7% [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 21x for 2026, 20x for 2027, and 18x for 2028, with a maintained "buy" rating based on competitive advantages in high-end and super high-end segments [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company faces pressure in Q4 2025 with a 4.2% year-on-year decline in revenue, primarily due to a downturn in the Chinese market, despite strong double-digit growth in India [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA decreased by 24.7%, with a net loss of approximately $12 million, slightly better than expectations [1] - For the full year, revenue and adjusted EBITDA fell by 6.1% and 9.8% respectively, reaching $5.76 billion and $1.59 billion, with the adjusted EBITDA margin declining by 1.1 percentage points to 27.6% [1] - In the Asia-Pacific West region, revenue declined by 5.6% in Q4, with price pressure (down 5.7% year-on-year) exceeding volume growth (up 0.1%) [2] Group 2: Market Analysis - The Chinese market saw a significant revenue decline of 11.4% in Q4, with volume and price down by 3.9% and 7.7% respectively, largely due to increased support for distributors and brand activation investments [2] - The Indian market continued to gain market share, achieving strong double-digit revenue growth in Q4, driven by high-end and super high-end product combinations [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Management aims to reignite growth in the Chinese market by focusing on expanding non-ready-to-drink channels, optimizing the product mix, and increasing digital investments [1] - Despite a slow recovery in the Chinese market, there is potential for marginal improvement in 2026 due to a low base effect [3] - The company has slightly lowered its revenue forecasts for 2026-2027 by 2% and adjusted EBITDA/net profit forecasts by 1% and 4-5% respectively, while maintaining a target price of HKD 8.90 based on a 20x target P/E ratio for 2026 [3]