Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current sentiment in the precious metals market, highlighting the decline in long positions for most metals except copper and palladium, and the implications of U.S. economic conditions and Federal Reserve policies on these markets [2][7][24]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Positioning - As of last Tuesday, all U.S. precious metal futures saw a decrease in fund long positions, with only copper and palladium continuing to rise [2][7]. - The gold fund long positions fell by 5% week-over-week, marking a continuous decline for seven weeks, while the net long position dropped to 349 tons, the lowest in 62 weeks [7]. - Silver's fund long positions increased by 2%, but the net long position decreased to 4,704 tons, maintaining a net long position for 62 weeks [7]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Outlook - The market's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July dropped from 76.4% to 50.1%, while the probability of maintaining the rate in September increased from 6.2% to 12.6% [2][23]. - Concerns are raised about persistent inflation in April and May, which could lead the Federal Reserve to prioritize dollar stability over economic support [24]. - The article suggests that if inflation remains high, the Fed may not cut rates as anticipated, potentially leading to higher rates in the future [24][26]. Group 3: Commodity Price Trends - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by 30.7%, while fund long positions have decreased by 24.7% [7]. - The article notes that the copper market is facing challenges due to economic recession fears, despite general optimism among experts [18]. - The gold-to-North American mining stock ratio has declined, indicating that mining stocks have underperformed relative to gold prices [20]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Predictions - The article highlights the potential for geopolitical risks to increase, particularly with the upcoming U.S. elections and the implications for monetary policy [25]. - It suggests that if the Fed begins to cut rates but inflation pressures resurface, it will pose a significant challenge for future monetary policy [27]. - The article concludes that strategies such as shorting base metals and holding cash or gold may be prudent in the current market environment [25].

绿色经济由提供具有环境效益产品和服务的企业构成——涵盖从可再生能源和清洁水源到节能建筑和回收服 务的各个领域。这些解决方案贯穿整个价值链，对于应对气候变化以及更广泛的环境挑战至关重要。 在全球不确定性加剧的背景下，本研究分析了绿色经济的波动与长期增长驱动力。 识别绿色价值需要可靠的数据和精准的洞察。自2008年以来，LSEG一直致力于开发专有数 据、分析工具及指数，以衡量企业在绿色经济领域的敞口。本报告展示了这些解决方案的实际 当前，绿色经济领域正面临市场波动，我们发布的《2025年绿色经济投资》报告，旨在帮助投资者剖析短 期市场波动，并挖掘绿色经济的长期增长驱动力及潜在投资机遇。 阅读我们的第六份 年度《投资绿色经济》报告 长按上方二维码 查看我们的报告（英文版） 为何这项研究为何这项研究如此重要？ 获取关于绿色经济全球 增长轨迹和表现的数据驱动型洞察 了解塑造绿色投资机遇的关键地域和行业趋势 探索由气候变化适应所带来的 投资机遇 应用。 在分析过程中，我们运用了LSEG多种专有的可持续发展投资数据，其中涵盖 绿色收入数据 、 气候数据 、 固定收益数据 、 Lipper基金的资金流动与持仓数据 、 大宗商 ...

"LSEG 数据与分析业务在服务财富管理行业方面经验深厚且表现卓越，始终致力于通过其解决方案赋能理 财顾问、帮助客户打造卓越投资体验。LSEG数字财富解决方案融合了行业领先的数据、小部件功能和 API，不仅显著改善了投资者的使用体验，还通过先进的分析技术和无与伦比的数据能力，帮助投资者排除 干扰，快速获取相关且有价值的洞察。" Digital CX奖项是全球唯一的金融业数字化客户服务专业评选活动，旨在表彰全球领先的金融机构和解决方 案提供商在推动数字客户体验创新与卓越发展方面做出的杰出贡献。参与评奖机构来自全球各地，充分体现 了全球协作与共同承诺在推动金融生态系统进步中的重要作用。 LSEG财富管理解决方案 为顾问和投资者创造个性化体验 近期， LSEG 数 据 与 分 析 业 务 财 富 管 理 解 决 方 案 荣 获 数 字 银 行 家 （ The Digital Banker ） 颁 发 的 2025 Digital CX Awards 奖 项 ： 客 户 分 析 与 洞 察 解 决 方 案 杰 出 奖 （ Outstanding Customer Analytics and Insights Solu ...

下图展示了新闻对短期波动性的预测效力。为聚焦于预测波动性本身，而非价格变动方向，我们根据所有历 史每日收益率z分数的绝对值进行分组处理，并绘制出前72小时的平均新闻z分数。LSEG新闻评分结果表 明，在回顾过去五年波动性处于前10%的交易日时，该评分呈现出显著的上升态势。 Amit Das LSEG新闻数据和API业务 探究在非常规交易时段公布的季度收益报告是怎样引发股价大幅变动的。 剖析收益报告披露后新闻报道量的大幅增长态势，并研究其与股票估值的相关性。 探索如何借助新闻情绪来预测收益报告披露后的价格变动趋势，进而挖掘具有价值的交易机会。 理解和管理波动性是交易和投资组合管理中的关键环节。波动性作为衡量业绩最常用指标——夏普比率公式 的重要组成部分，其重要性不言而喻。实际上，近年来市场对波动性的担忧持续升温。VIX指数是追踪市场 波动性的关键指数之一。可以看出，2020年是一个明显的转折点，自此美国市场的波动性呈上升态势。 2020年至今，VIX指数的平均收盘价约为21.7美元，较2015 至 2020年的平均收盘价涨幅超过40%。这种上 升态势并非仅由过去几年中那些我们期望仅出现一次的极端事件所驱动。深入 ...

Core Viewpoint - Geopolitical risks and economic decoupling are reshaping the global commodity market landscape, necessitating precise market trend predictions for companies to seize opportunities during transformations [1] Group 1: Event Overview - LSEG will co-host a high-profile industry seminar with LME on May 19, 2025, focusing on U.S. tariff policies, global supply chain resilience, and the upgraded role of Asian markets [2] - The event aims to analyze core drivers of the metal market, technological innovation pathways, and potential growth spaces, gathering authoritative figures from the metal industry and trade sectors [2] Group 2: Agenda Highlights - The seminar will include guest registration, opening remarks, and a networking session, starting at 15:00 and concluding at 19:00 [4][5] Group 3: Data and Insights - Commodity data is a valuable resource, and obtaining the right information at the right time is crucial for success in commodity trading [7][8] - Each data point, from oil storage levels to grain quality in the Black Sea region, adds critical information to global trading decision-making processes [9] - Utilizing structured approaches to leverage fundamentals, supply and demand, vessel tracking, reserves, and alternative data sources can provide traders with a competitive edge [10] Group 4: Trading Solutions - LSEG offers specialized trading software and insights into energy, agriculture, and metal markets, enhancing competitive advantages in commodity trading [11][12] - The company has one of the largest commodity databases globally, supported by a strong analyst team and exclusive partnerships, streamlining the end-to-end workflow in commodity trading [13] Group 5: Sector-Specific Solutions - Energy trading solutions cover a global ecosystem of oil, gas, electricity, coal, and carbon assets, supported by exclusive partnerships with major data providers [15][16] - Metal trading solutions utilize comprehensive data and analysis methods, including machine learning and AI, to predict market trends across various metal markets [17][18] - Agricultural trading solutions leverage robust fundamental data and alternative sources to forecast price trends, ensuring reliable information for soft commodity trading [19][20] - Shipping trading insights are provided through a team of maritime experts, offering unique perspectives on global shipping transactions [21] Group 6: Data Aggregation and Digitalization - LSEG specializes in standardizing and structuring multiple data sources to generate actionable insights, ensuring reliable solutions for global trading companies [22] - The company ensures access to required information in any digital format, integrating proprietary or third-party data flexibly [22][23]

李冈峰 欧洲天然资源基金 Commodity Discovery 特约分析师 LSEG Workspace用户可以搜寻CFTC寻找最新数据： | | | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | | | Nymex铂金 | Nymex把金 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (截至4月29日) | 물 | 跟上周比较 | 발 | 跟上周比较 | 官 | 跟上周比较 | 를 | 跟上周比较 | | 管理资金的净多头量 | 360 | -7. 8% | 4, 860 | +19. 4% | -3 | +76. 2% | -42 | -1.4% | | 多头量 | 483 | -5. 6% | 6.657 | +15. 9% | 45 | +11. 2% | 8 | +4. 4% | | 空头量 | 123 | +1. 8% | 1.796 | +7.5% | 48 | -11.5% | 50 | +1.8% | 这是一个主要从美国每周的CFTC数据公布基金(Managed Positions)在当地期货市场的各种部署，继而反映 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of optimizing sanctions lists to enhance compliance efforts and maintain the stability of the global financial ecosystem. It introduces a six-step plan for creating higher-quality sanctions lists that can streamline the compliance process and improve the effectiveness of sanctions screening [2][10]. Group 1: Six-Step Guide to Creating Better Sanctions Lists - Step 1: Record Updates - Track all high-level changes to sanctions lists, including additions, removals, or modifications, to improve transparency and reduce risks during audits [3]. - Step 2: Timely Releases - Schedule updates to avoid operational disruptions, ensuring that changes are communicated promptly to allow for immediate screening [4]. - Step 3: Diverse Format Options - Provide multiple formats for data delivery to facilitate both automated processing and human verification, enhancing overall efficiency [5]. - Step 4: Maintain Consistency - Ensure that information is synchronized across different formats to eliminate discrepancies and improve the accuracy of screening [6]. - Step 5: Clarify Corrections - Establish a robust change tracking mechanism to promptly correct errors and inform users, supporting precise execution of sanctions [7]. - Step 6: Foster Open Communication - Encourage dialogue among stakeholders to enhance understanding and facilitate timely responses to queries, thereby improving the overall effectiveness of sanctions information delivery [8]. Group 2: Importance of Sanctions Screening - Sanctions are protective measures aimed at curbing illegal activities and maintaining the stability of the global financial system. Financial institutions must efficiently receive, understand, and apply the latest sanctions information to achieve this goal [10]. - A well-structured sanctions list can filter out unnecessary noise, allowing global entities to implement sanctions more accurately and effectively [11]. Group 3: Compliance Challenges and Solutions - Sanctions compliance presents challenges due to the constantly changing regulatory environment and the lack of a unified sanctions list. Organizations must ensure they do not engage with sanctioned entities [17]. - The article highlights the significance of having a robust sanctions screening program and obtaining comprehensive and accurate sanctions risk data to navigate the evolving compliance landscape [18].

Khalid Sadat LSEG 风险情报业务首席研究分析师 AI正在改变风险管理格局，使机构能够分析海量数据集、精准察觉新兴威胁，并能够主动采取应对措施。 这一模式的转变，使得AI成为应对当今复杂风险环境的有力工具。 这正是需要AI填补空缺的地方：借助机器学习（ML）或自然语言处理（NLP）以及高级分析技术，AI赋能 的解决方案可以实时分析大型数据集，为您提供触手可及的宝贵洞察。 但我们也要牢记，金融犯罪分子非常善于利用不断发展的技术和先进的AI工具（如深度伪造技术）来实施 欺诈、操纵数字身份并发动高度复杂的攻击。 AI工具可以帮助识别异常和模式、提供具有前瞻性的见解，还可实现重复性任务的自动化操作。这些功能 释放了人力资源，使其能够专注于战略决策。然而， 我们需要注意一点：AI 的部署必须确保安全。 这意味 着，AI需要人类进行监督和管控。 将AI添加到您的工具箱 将 AI 纳入您的工具箱，您可以更积极主动地管理风险，在与金融犯罪分子的较量中获得优势。借助自动化 数据分析，AI 能够挖掘出人类分析师可能会忽略的模式和异常情况。这不仅有助于加快决策进程，还能降 低人为失误的风险。 主要优势包括： 实时威胁 ...

中国大陆企业在2025年一季度全球资本市场发行股票及股票挂钩交易中，融资总额达261.2亿美元，同比增 长240%，环比增长38%。 发行数量较2024年同期增长17%，共计112笔，环比2024年四季度减少18%。 首次公开发行（IPO）总额达37.3亿美元，同比增长19%，环比减少39%。 增发总额达161.7亿美元，同比 增长350%，环比增长87%。中国可转换债券及股票挂钩发行总计发行62.2亿美元，同比565%，环比增长 50%。 本季度工业行业以32%的市场份额领先其他行业， 总募集金额达84.2亿美元，与去年同期相比增长264%。 2025年一季度，高盛高华在中国股票和股票挂钩承销商榜单中居于首位。 01 中国股票及股票挂钩 从交易数量排名上看， 国浩 和 竞天公诚律师事务所 在中国股票和股票挂钩 发行人法律顾问榜单 以8笔交 易并列首位； 承销商法律顾问榜单 中 竞天公诚律师事务所 位列榜首。 市场概览 | 中国公司在全球股票及股票挂钩发行(BX01a) | | | | 与云年同期相比 19% | 与上身顺相比 | -16% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

李冈峰 欧洲天然资源基金 Commodity Discovery 特约分析师 这是一个主要从美国每周的CFTC数据公布基金(Managed Positions)在当地期货市场的各种部署，继而反映 现时市场对贵金属的情绪和对短/中期的一个价格判断。美国每周五收市后公布的CFTC数据，记录日为刚过 去的周二(如果过去一周原本工作日是假日的话数据出炉会延期)。 概要 上周三鲍威尔表示，美国在新政策下，将会面对失业率上升、通胀存在上升压力，对央行来说会 是困难重重，因为大部分政策的影响在通胀和失业中只能选其一；鲍同时认为即使美股急跌，联 储局不会突然在非议息日中减息。 另一方面，联储内部曾讨论是否应停止销售债券(售卖债券的结果是将市场里的流动现金收走)，结 果他们维持销售但卖债量减少75%，所以联储局已经透过减少卖债来维持市场里较多的资金流 动。 美联储于5月7日维持息率不变的机率从三周前的55.4%升回至上周五的89%。市场认为联储还会在 6月减息的机率从两周前的73.7%跌至上周五的62.5% (即6月减息机会下降)。 特朗普想踢走鲍威尔，委任另一个自己人这样便可以立即降息。不过理论上联储运作独立于美政 府，所以 ...