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关税再掀风浪,央妈持续购金,黄金后市怎么看?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-11 01:32
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the impact of U.S. tariff policies under President Trump, which have led to increased market uncertainty and a rise in gold prices as a safe-haven asset [1][2] - Trump signed an executive order extending the delay of "reciprocal tariffs" from July 9 to August 1, affecting goods from at least 14 countries, with tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% [1][2] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff increases is causing concerns about rising supply chain costs in the U.S., potentially leading to "stagflation," where economic growth slows while prices continue to rise [2] Group 2 - As of June 30, China's gold reserves increased to 73.9 million ounces (approximately 2,298.55 tons), marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [2] - The World Gold Council's survey indicated that 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019 [4] - The recent U.S. tax and spending bill, known as the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," is expected to increase U.S. debt by $4.1 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [10][11] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates has led to market speculation about potential rate cuts later in the year, with expectations for two cuts by the end of 2025 [11][12] - The ongoing uncertainty in the U.S. economic environment, including the impact of tariffs and fiscal expansion, is complicating the Fed's decision-making process regarding interest rates [13][14] - Central banks' continued accumulation of gold is seen as a significant support for gold prices, especially in the context of a weakening U.S. dollar due to fiscal policies [14]
央行连续第8个月增持黄金,关注黄金基金ETF(518800)机会
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-08 00:54
Group 1 - As of June 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,174 billion, an increase of $322 billion from May, marking a growth rate of 0.98% [1] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for the eighth consecutive month, with a notable acceleration in the pace of accumulation [1] - A survey by the World Gold Council and YouGov indicated that 43% of 72 central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, a significant rise from 29% last year, marking an eight-year high [1] Group 2 - Long-term expectations show that 76% of central banks anticipate an increase in the proportion of gold in their reserves over the next five years, up from 69% last year, indicating a growing demand for gold in a diversified international reserve system [1] - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, and the passage of the "Big and Beautiful Act" has led to a temporary increase in market risk appetite [1] - Geopolitical tensions have eased, contributing to a decline in precious metals prices, with London gold testing the $3,300 support level on July 7 [1] Group 3 - The "Big and Beautiful Act" is expected to significantly increase the scale of U.S. Treasury bonds, which may weaken the dollar's credit and support precious metal valuations in the long run [1] - Ongoing trade wars and geopolitical disturbances continue to pose significant uncertainties, maintaining gold's value as a safe haven [1] - Investors are advised to consider continuing regular investments in gold ETFs (518880) [1]