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写给股民们的九条建议
泽平宏观· 2026-01-20 16:06
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current bullish market sentiment and the potential for a "slow bull" rather than a "crazy bull," emphasizing the importance of rationality and understanding market dynamics to avoid pitfalls in investing [1]. Market Volatility - Market fluctuations are normal, and investors should respect market rules and avoid being swayed by emotions. The concept of "Mr. Market" illustrates that stock prices can deviate from intrinsic values in the short term, but will eventually revert to their true value [5]. - Investors should remain calm and rational, avoiding emotional reactions to market movements. The article highlights the dangers of impulsive trading based on fear or greed, advocating for a focus on identifying strong companies and waiting for the right opportunities [6]. Investment Principles - Investing should be done with spare money that does not affect one's quality of life. The article warns against a gambler's mentality, where investors risk all their assets in hopes of quick wealth, which can lead to stress and poor decision-making [7]. - The article categorizes household assets into four types: money for expenses, money for safety, money for growth, and money for preservation. It emphasizes the importance of maintaining sufficient cash for living expenses [8]. Market Behavior - The article cautions that a bull market does not guarantee profits and warns against chasing trends and frequent trading. It cites Graham's observation that bull markets can lead to losses for ordinary investors due to overconfidence and impulsive actions [10]. - A-shares are characterized by a predominance of retail investors, which amplifies market volatility and can lead to herd behavior. The number of retail investors has surpassed 240 million, with retail holdings accounting for about 28% of the market capitalization [11]. Cognitive Awareness - Investors must change their mindset and avoid making decisions based on rumors or superficial information. Understanding the fundamentals of the market, including economic indicators and company performance, is crucial for successful investing [12]. - The article emphasizes the importance of investing within one's capability and knowledge. It suggests that investors should either engage directly in stock trading if experienced or rely on professional fund managers if they lack the time or expertise [13]. Risk Management - Diversification is essential to mitigate non-systematic risks. The article advises against concentrating investments in a single asset or sector, promoting a balanced portfolio across various asset classes [14]. - Investors should maintain a long-term perspective and not let short-term market fluctuations alter their investment beliefs. Focusing on companies with long-term growth potential is key to achieving better returns [16]. Emotional Discipline - The article discusses the "disposition effect," where investors tend to sell winning stocks too early and hold onto losing ones. It encourages focusing on fundamental analysis rather than succumbing to short-term market pressures [17]. - Investors should avoid "selective attention," which leads to a biased view of the market. A comprehensive evaluation of market conditions and company performance is necessary for informed decision-making [18].
声明:任泽平博士观点
泽平宏观· 2026-01-20 16:06
任泽平博士的观点,网上传来传去,多有谬误,本文一并更正,正本清源。 需要声明,任泽平博士新媒体矩阵号过往所写公司,仅为研究,并非投资建议,公开场合不荐 股。 做有温度、有情怀、有专业的研究,用知识推动社会进步。正心正念,坚持做长期正确的事。 感谢各界以及媒体朋友的关心,一起带着梦想去旅行。 在2021年12月常州金坛区举办的新能源产业峰会上,提出"当下不投新能源,就像20年前没买 房"。只是在2022年中期新能源大热时被媒体借势炒作上热搜,并非部分网上解读的是2022年 基建"写入2020年政府工作报 - 2 - 1 12 在2020年国内最早倡导新基建,看好新能源和人工 智能。专著《新基建》荣获中组部第五届全国党员培 训创新教材奖。 任泽平 马家讲 连 你们著的《新基建》在第五届全国党员教育培训 教材展示交流活动中被评为创新教材。 中共中央组织部 2021年1月 提出的观点。 021年12月,中国汽车工业协会、常州市金坛区人民政府、 法模如十篇安十量店照过留学生经 f能源汽车产业还有哪些投资机会?产业投融资面临哪些难点挑战? 场重磅年会给出答案 5 O 新闻工事出展 2024年9月提出《下半年经济展望:东升 ...
2月北京站:头部智驾企业“盲盒”、天工机器人——芯之所驱 形之所塑
泽平宏观· 2026-01-20 16:06
以下文章来源于泽平宏观商学 ,作者泽平宏观商学 泽平宏观商学 . 前沿科技企业实战研学 读万卷书行万里路 014> 盲盒:头部智能驾驶企业 当前正处于从 L2 到 L4 自动驾驶迭代、从汽车向 通用机器人跨越的历史拐点。智驾芯片及解决方案市 场正以接近 50% 的年复合增长率奔向万亿规模。公司 凭借国产替代与技术普惠的双重红利,占据了中国智 驾市场的"半壁江山"。 在物理AI加速落地浪潮与国产替代加速的双重β 下,公司作为国产中大型算力芯片头部企业及具备软 硬一体能力的供应商,推动汽车从"功能"迈向"智 能",让机器更懂人类,让出行更安全、更自由。 天工机器人:北京人形机器人创新中心 国家战略级平台,定义全栈自主新高度 北京人形机器人创新中心于2023年11月成立,是 国内首个省级人形机器人创新中心,也是国内首家具 身智能软硬件全栈科技公司,全面覆盖人形机器人大 脑、小脑、本体与数据的研发攻关并且构建了良好的 开源生态。 目前已推出自主研发的全国产化"具身天工"系 列人形机器人和"天轶"系列轮式人形机器人,可覆 盖工业制作、特种作业、物流分拣、商业导览等多元 场景,在人形机器人半马、运动会等多项行业竞赛中 以 ...
未来的机会在这里!任泽平带你看前沿科技
泽平宏观· 2026-01-20 16:06
以下文章来源于泽平宏观商学 ,作者泽平宏观商学 泽平宏观商学 . 前沿科技企业实战研学 读万卷书行万里路 2025 年 12 月 用心打造最有品质的实战研学。读万卷书,行万里路。把教室搬到世界上最优秀的企业, 请最优秀的企业家和科学家讲课。顺势而为,把握机遇。正心正念,坚持做长期正确的 事! 我们期待与更多的企业家朋友们携手同行,共赴 2026 实战研学之旅! 泽 ZEP 平 INGM 宏 ACR 观 O RE 商 SEAR 学 CH 1-6月日程安排 · 2月27日 北京 国内头部智驾科技企业 人形机器人 年研学安 型成 11月4日-11日 洛杉矶、拉斯维加斯、旧金山 CES、英伟达、特斯拉 谷歌、罗宾汉、playground 斯坦福大学、伯克利大学 3月27日-28日 苏州 追觅科技、魔法原子、灵猴机器人 闭门投研会-2026 Al 的中国力量(一) 3月29日 上海 长三角校友会 4月20日-21日 香港 2026 香港 Web3 嘉年华 复星财富、HashKey、港交所 5月22日-23日 1151 11:47:50 深圳 华为、新凯来、江波龙、莫界科技 闭门投研会—2026 Al 的中国力量(二) ...
未来的机会在这里!任泽平带你看前沿科技
泽平宏观· 2026-01-19 16:24
泽 ZEP 平 INGM 宏 ACR 观 O RE 商 SEAR 学 CH 2025 年 12 月 用心打造最有品质的实战研学。读万卷书,行万里路。把教室搬到世界上最优秀的企业, 请最优秀的企业家和科学家讲课。顺势而为,把握机遇。正心正念,坚持做长期正确的 事! 我们期待与更多的企业家朋友们携手同行,共赴 2026 实战研学之旅! 11月4日-11日 洛杉矶、拉斯维加斯、旧金山 CES、英伟达、特斯拉 谷歌、罗宾汉、playground 斯坦福大学、伯克利大学 2月27日 北京 国内头部智驾科技企业 人形机器人 3月27日-28日 苏州 追觅科技、魔法原子、灵猴机器人 闭门投研会—2026 Al 的中国力量(一) 3月29日 上海 长三角校友会 -F ZUE-ZIE 香港 2026 香港 Web3 嘉年华 复星财富、HashKey、港交所 5月22日-23日 H MOLICISO 深圳 华为、新凯来、江波龙、莫界科技 闭门投研会-2026 Al 的中国力量(二) 6月26日-27日 贵州 茅台一日无界 品品鲜智能工厂、遵义会址 织金打鸡洞 7-12月日程安排 2026年7月 新易盛、川润股份、布法罗机器 & ...
保持乐观:从12月经济数据看未来的趋势和机会
泽平宏观· 2026-01-19 16:24
Economic Overview - The total economic output of China surpassed 140 trillion yuan in 2025, with a nominal GDP growth of 4.0% and a real GDP growth of 5.0%, indicating a shift in economic growth engines towards high-tech industries [2] - The industrial production showed signs of recovery, with a 5.2% year-on-year increase in December, driven by high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors [5] Foreign Trade - China's export value reached a record high of 357.75 billion USD in December, with a year-on-year growth of 6.6%, contributing to a total import and export value exceeding 45 trillion yuan for the year [7] - The export structure has become more optimized, with high-tech product exports growing by 13.2%, significantly outpacing overall export growth [7] Price Trends - Consumer prices showed a slight increase, with a CPI rise of 0.8% in December, while PPI decreased by 1.9%, indicating a narrowing decline due to both "anti-involution" policies and external factors [9] Capital Markets - The capital market is experiencing significant growth, with a notable increase in new stock market accounts and a bullish trend in the A-share market, reaching a ten-year high in January 2026 [11] New Production Forces - Emerging industries are leading growth, with integrated circuit manufacturing and electronic materials seeing substantial increases in value added, while the production of industrial robots and electric vehicles also surged [13] Real Estate Market - The real estate sector is undergoing inventory reduction and stabilization, with policies aimed at promoting recovery, despite a decline in sales area and value [15]
声明:任泽平博士观点
泽平宏观· 2026-01-19 16:24
任泽平博士的观点,网上传来传去,多有谬误,本文一并更正,正本清源。 需要声明,任泽平博士新媒体矩阵号过往所写公司,仅为研究,并非投资建议,公开场合不荐 股。 做有温度、有情怀、有专业的研究,用知识推动社会进步。正心正念,坚持做长期正确的事。 感谢各界以及媒体朋友的关心,一起带着梦想去旅行。 基建"写入2020年政府工作报 - 2 - 1 12 在2020年国内最早倡导新基建,看好新能源和人工 智能。专著《新基建》荣获中组部第五届全国党员培 训创新教材奖。 任泽平 马家讲 连 你们著的《新基建》在第五届全国党员教育培训 教材展示交流活动中被评为创新教材。 中共中央组织部 2021年1月 在2021年12月常州金坛区举办的新能源产业峰会上,提出"当下不投新能源,就像20年前没买 房"。只是在2022年中期新能源大热时被媒体借势炒作上热搜,并非部分网上解读的是2022年 提出的观点。 021年12月,中国汽车工业协会、常州市金坛区人民政府、 法模如十篇安十量店照过留学生经 新能源相关的产业是未来中国经济最有希望的,最具爆发力的领域 下不给新能源 就像20年前沿理服 这是我个人的看法,这是时代的力量,我们每个人不过是 ...
声明:任泽平博士观点
泽平宏观· 2026-01-18 16:05
任泽平博士的观点,网上传来传去,多有谬误,本文一并更正,正本清源。 需要声明,任泽平博士新媒体矩阵号过往所写公司,仅为研究,并非投资建议,公开场合不荐 股。 基建"写入2020年政府工作报 - 2 - 1 12 在2020年国内最早倡导新基建,看好新能源和人工 智能。专著《新基建》荣获中组部第五届全国党员培 训创新教材奖。 做有温度、有情怀、有专业的研究,用知识推动社会进步。正心正念,坚持做长期正确的事。 感谢各界以及媒体朋友的关心,一起带着梦想去旅行。 任泽平 马家讲 连 你们著的《新基建》在第五届全国党员教育培训 教材展示交流活动中被评为创新教材。 中共中央组织部 2021年1月 在2021年12月常州金坛区举办的新能源产业峰会上,提出"当下不投新能源,就像20年前没买 房"。只是在2022年中期新能源大热时被媒体借势炒作上热搜,并非部分网上解读的是2022年 提出的观点。 021年12月,中国汽车工业协会、常州市金坛区人民政府、 法模如十篇安十量店照过留学生经 新能源相关的产业是未来中国经济最有希望的,最具爆发力的领域 下不给新能源 就像20年前沿理服 这是我个人的看法,这是时代的力量,我们每个人不过是 ...
未来的机会在这里!任泽平带你看前沿科技
泽平宏观· 2026-01-18 16:05
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of practical learning experiences in the field of investment and technology, highlighting the value of direct engagement with leading companies and experts in various industries [2][7][19]. Schedule Overview - The schedule for 2026 includes visits to major tech companies and universities, such as NVIDIA, Tesla, and Stanford University, focusing on cutting-edge technologies and innovations [3][4][5]. - Specific events include closed-door research meetings on AI and technology trends, as well as visits to companies like Huawei, BYD, and others in the robotics and AI sectors [18][19][57]. Company Engagement - The program aims to connect entrepreneurs with top executives and scientists to gain insights into strategic decisions and technological advancements [7][19]. - Participants will explore various sectors, including AI, robotics, and new energy, through hands-on experiences and discussions with industry leaders [19][57]. Learning Philosophy - The initiative promotes a philosophy of "reading extensively and traveling widely," encouraging participants to learn from real-world applications and innovations in technology [2][38]. - The focus is on fostering a mindset of long-term thinking and ethical business practices among entrepreneurs [2][40].
任泽平:在火爆的CES和硅谷,我看到了未来的AI世界
泽平宏观· 2026-01-18 16:05
Group 1 - The core theme of the article is the rapid advancement of AI technology, which is transforming the world and is seen as a significant opportunity, potentially surpassing the impact of the IT internet revolution from thirty years ago [3][8]. - The CES event showcased AI as the dominant theme, with significant advancements in robotics and autonomous driving, indicating a forthcoming revolution in transportation [5][16]. - Major players in the AI space, such as Nvidia, are leading the GPU race, while companies like Google are also making strides with their TPU technology [7]. Group 2 - The demand for AI computing power is expected to grow by a hundredfold, driven by advancements in physical AI, which integrates AI into physical devices like robots and autonomous vehicles [12]. - The AI competition is primarily between the US and China, with other countries having minimal presence, indicating a widening gap in technological capabilities [13]. - The future of AI will lead to the emergence of new species of technology and applications, fundamentally altering industries and potentially replacing many traditional jobs [28][31]. Group 3 - Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology is advancing rapidly, with the potential to leap directly to Level 4 autonomous driving, which could significantly change urban transportation dynamics [16][24]. - The integration of AI in various sectors, including healthcare and robotics, is expected to lead to breakthroughs in understanding and solving complex problems, such as cancer and aging [29][30]. - The rise of AI agents is anticipated to reshape organizational structures, enabling smaller companies to achieve remarkable productivity and market value [32].