青侨阳光月度思考 -- 聚焦医药，深简投资 本文为青侨阳光基金 11 月报投资思考部分节选 ~ 在股票投资的宇宙里，市场每个阶段的经历对于投资人来说都像是在体验开盲盒。 以青侨基金为例，今年最重要的一次调仓是2025Q2-Q3拿了一半多的港股创新药企换美股生科标的，理由是这 两类资产的成长动力都很强劲、长期前景都很有吸引力，但自2025年以来一个大涨一个大跌，估值吸引力发生 了大幅逆转。 然而： 但，要是再往前展望几个月，谁又知道会怎样呢？两者继续分化或者两者强弱互换也都不是不可能…… 过去几年里，类似的经历比比皆是，给人的感受就是"往后回溯处处留遗憾，往前展望事事皆未知"。这提出了 我们不得不不直面的一个挑战： 在波诡云谲的市场里，什么是可以信赖的规律？什么是靠不住的表象？如何 才能不断提高我们高效安全地穿越未知丛林的能力？ 1 一条可行的路径： 长视角下的强劲内生价值增长 首先，可以确定的是，虽然短期的市场定价高度未知、难以琢磨，但长视角下，好业务好公司的未来可见度是 非常高的，在此背景下的回报确定性也是非常好的。 因为 估值是个扰动性而非叠加性变量 ，主流市场里正常公司估值拉升或估值压抑一般也就1倍为限 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry as of November 16, 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is experiencing varied price cycles for raw materials, with certain products like Amoxicillin and 6-APA benefiting from stable supply and increased demand, leading to a prosperous period from 2023 to 2024. Vitamin E is also expected to see a high demand year in 2024 due to an incident at BASF [2]. - The high-value consumables market is showing growth in segments such as vascular intervention and neurosurgery, while orthopedic implants are facing a decline overall. However, specific areas like spinal and joint implants are growing, indicating a recovery in the industry post-tender clearing [3]. - The flu positivity rate has surged, leading to increased attention on flu medications and testing, with new flu drugs receiving approval from the National Medical Products Administration [4]. - The pace of innovation and overseas expansion in the pharmaceutical sector is recovering, with a significant increase in licensing deals and total transaction amounts in 2025 compared to previous years [5]. - The competitive landscape in the weight loss market is intensifying, with major companies like Novo Nordisk and Pfizer engaging in acquisition battles, highlighting the market's attractiveness [6]. - The research services and Contract Research Organization (CRO) sectors are leading the recovery in the pharmaceutical industry, with significant profit growth reported in these areas [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Pharmaceutical Market Tracking - The pharmaceutical sector has outperformed the CSI 300 index recently, with a weekly increase of 3.29% [22]. 2. Pharmaceutical Sector Trends and Valuation - The pharmaceutical industry index has a current PE (TTM) of 39.36, above the five-year historical average of 31.22 [48]. 3. Recent Research Achievements - The report highlights various research achievements, including the growth of innovative drugs and the positive outlook for the blood products industry [50]. 4. Recent Industry Policies and News - Recent policies from the National Medical Insurance Administration focus on intelligent auditing and regulation of excessive prescriptions, aiming to safeguard fund security and patient rights [52].

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical sector has experienced significant fluctuations, with a prolonged downturn from 2021 to 2024, followed by a substantial recovery in 2025. The Hang Seng Medical Index has doubled from its lowest point but still has room to grow compared to previous highs, while the A-share medical index remains significantly below its historical peak [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities in the Pharmaceutical Sector - The current market sentiment towards the pharmaceutical sector is cautious, with a need to reassess the understanding of the industry and future prospects [2]. - Four major investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector over the next three years have been identified, which may influence future fund allocation strategies [2]. Group 2: Domestic High-Value Consumables - Domestic high-value consumables, particularly in the context of "innovation + going global," show strong growth potential, although market consensus is still lacking [3][9]. - The market capitalization of domestic high-value consumables companies is significantly lower than their international counterparts, indicating substantial growth potential [5][9]. - The characteristics of high-value consumables align well with China's manufacturing strengths, suggesting that the emergence of world-class companies in this sector is likely [9][10]. Group 3: U.S. Biotech Sector - The U.S. biotech sector is experiencing a second upward cycle driven by various intracellular biological technologies achieving clinical validation [14]. - The rise of domestic innovative drugs has created competitive pressure on U.S. biotech firms, but it also opens opportunities for collaboration and integration [14][15]. - The market for intracellular technologies is expected to grow, with significant investment opportunities in U.S. biotech companies [16][19]. Group 4: Domestic Innovative Drugs - The domestic innovative drug sector is entering a golden window of opportunity following deep medical reforms, with strong growth potential anticipated in the coming years [23][24]. - The growth trajectory of domestic innovative drugs mirrors that of the U.S. market in the 1980s, suggesting a potential for a prolonged high-growth cycle [25][27]. - The competitive landscape for domestic innovative drugs is evolving, with a focus on maintaining product quality and performance to succeed in a mature global market [27][29]. Group 5: Overall Pharmaceutical Industry Trends - The overall growth rate of the pharmaceutical industry is expected to accelerate marginally over the next three years, improving the industry’s overall outlook [29][30]. - The anticipated recovery in industry revenue and profit margins is driven by the maturation of previously loss-making innovative drug companies and a reduction in competitive pressures [30][35]. - Despite the positive outlook, the market has yet to fully recognize the potential for recovery, as evidenced by low valuation levels compared to historical averages [33].

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical sector has experienced significant fluctuations, with a notable recovery expected in the coming years, particularly in the context of the Chinese market and its potential for innovation and growth [3][4]. Group 1: Current Market Analysis - As of October 2025, the Hang Seng Medical Index is at 4048 points, reflecting a 100% increase from its lowest point but still has room to grow compared to its previous high of 8396 points [3]. - The A-share pharmaceutical index stands at 9488 points, only reaching 25% of its previous high of 16906 points, indicating a slower recovery compared to Hong Kong stocks [3]. - The overall valuation of covered pharmaceutical stocks has stabilized around historical averages, but a recent market pullback has raised questions about future performance [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The domestic high-value consumables market shows strong potential for growth, particularly in the context of "innovation + going global," although market consensus on this potential is still lacking [4][10]. - The market capitalization of leading domestic biotech companies is approaching that of their international counterparts, indicating a significant growth opportunity in the high-value consumables sector [4][10]. - The disparity in market capitalization between U.S. and Chinese high-value consumables companies raises questions about the potential for Chinese firms to achieve similar valuations [6][10]. Group 3: Future Growth Drivers - The high-value consumables sector is characterized by a strong innovation pipeline, with many products in the regulatory approval process, suggesting continued growth in this area [9][10]. - The potential for significant unmet medical needs in areas such as heart valve treatments and neuromodulation therapies presents further opportunities for innovation and market expansion [9][10]. - The increasing competitiveness of domestic high-value consumables firms in international markets is expected to drive growth, with several products nearing market entry in Europe and the U.S. [11][13]. Group 4: Biotech Sector Insights - The U.S. biotech sector is poised for a second upward cycle driven by various innovative technologies, particularly in cell-based therapies [15][16]. - The siRNA technology has shown promise in clinical applications, with a historical trajectory that suggests a potential for significant market recovery and growth [17][20]. - Gene editing technologies are gaining traction as they offer the potential for permanent solutions to diseases, which could reshape treatment paradigms in the future [22][23]. Group 5: Domestic Innovation and Market Trends - The domestic innovative drug sector is entering a critical phase, with the potential for substantial growth driven by ongoing reforms and market expansion [23][25]. - The historical context of U.S. pharmaceutical growth during the 1980s suggests that China may experience a similar trajectory, with the current phase representing only the first half of a longer growth cycle [25][26]. - The increasing focus on high-quality, innovative products in the Chinese market is expected to enhance competitiveness and drive future growth [28][30]. Group 6: Overall Industry Outlook - The pharmaceutical industry is anticipated to see a recovery in total revenue growth, with projections suggesting a return to a stable growth rate of 6%-9% over the next three years [32][34]. - The potential for improved profit margins is linked to the maturation of previously unprofitable innovative drug companies and a reduction in competitive pressures [32][34]. - Despite current low valuations, the pharmaceutical sector's long-term growth prospects remain strong, making it an attractive investment opportunity [34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the medical device sector [6] Core Insights - The medical device sector is entering a turning point, driven by innovation and international expansion as key growth drivers [12][29] - The overall revenue for medical device companies in the first three quarters of 2025 was 183.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.90%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 22.70 billion yuan, down 17.70% [8][15] - Different sub-sectors show significant divergence in performance, with high-value consumables showing a growth of 5.12%, while in vitro diagnostics faced a decline of 13.94% [8][15] Summary by Sections Medical Device Sector Overview - The medical device sector is experiencing a recovery with improved bidding processes and a gradual clearing of high-cost consumables [8][15] - The revenue growth rate for the medical device sector in Q3 2025 was 9.99%, with a net profit growth of 4.87% [9][16] High-Value Consumables - High-value consumables saw a revenue increase of 5.12% in the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit growth of 1.18% [29] - The sector is stabilizing as it enters the post-collection phase, with significant growth driven by innovation and international expansion [29] Medical Equipment - The medical equipment sector's revenue decreased by 1.02% in the first three quarters of 2025, but showed a positive trend in Q3 with a revenue increase of 9.99% [9][16] - The sector is expected to experience structural differentiation in demand as bidding processes improve [9] Low-Value Consumables - Low-value consumables experienced a revenue decline of 0.75% in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant drop in net profit by 21.68% [9][16] - The sector's performance is heavily influenced by international market conditions, but there is potential for recovery in Q4 2025 [9] In Vitro Diagnostics - The in vitro diagnostics sector faced a revenue decline of 13.94% in the first three quarters of 2025, with net profit down 32.20% [9][16] - The sector is expected to stabilize by the end of 2025 as negative impacts from policies begin to clear [9]

Summary of the Pharmaceutical Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical industry has entered the 2.0 phase, characterized by significant growth in the innovative drug market and a gradual move towards international markets [1][3] - High-value consumables and minimally invasive stents have begun sales in the U.S., while low-value consumables have achieved internationalization [1][3] - Surgical robots have exceeded global sales expectations, with some products like PET-CT reaching global leadership [1][4] Key Insights and Arguments - **Investment Opportunities in Innovative Drugs**: The innovative drug sector presents significant investment opportunities, with a market potential of 1.2 trillion RMB domestically and 1.8 trillion USD globally. Chinese companies are capable of entering this larger international market, particularly in ADC and bispecific antibody products [1][5] - **Advantages of Domestic Innovative Drug R&D**: Domestic R&D benefits from rich patient resources, low-cost clinical trials, and a strong pipeline reserve, with over 30% pipeline reserve in emerging fields like cell therapy and ADC [1][6] - **CRO Sector Investment Opportunities**: The CRO sector shows promising investment opportunities, with a significant increase in financing expected in 2025, particularly for clinical trials and early-stage R&D [1][7] - **CRO Performance and Future Demand**: In the first half of 2025, CRO companies performed well in overseas markets, with double-digit growth in orders. Domestic demand is expected to recover in 2026, despite weaker performance in 2025 due to project execution cycles [1][8] Additional Important Points - **Market Financing Trends**: Domestic primary market financing reached 660 million USD in August 2025, the highest monthly value in three years, with optimistic projections for the remainder of the year [1][9] - **High-Value Consumables Market Trends**: By 2026, the high-value and low-value consumables markets are expected to complete centralized procurement, with the most significant price pressure having passed. Focus areas include fast-growing surgical fields and products with high foreign investment ratios [1][12] - **Challenges and Opportunities in Medical Equipment**: The medical equipment sector faces challenges due to procurement stagnation from anti-corruption measures, but there is potential for recovery in late 2024. Companies like Mindray and new industry players are expanding into overseas markets, indicating growth potential [1][13]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese innovative drug industry is gradually catching up with Europe and the United States in terms of technology, with some targets and technical pathways already leading globally. The number and value of new drugs authorized for overseas markets continue to increase, leading to world-class pricing and non-linear investment elasticity. The domestic market is experiencing strong growth in demand, with domestic new drug sales continuing to rise, and several innovative pharmaceutical companies have turned losses into profits, entering a stable growth phase [2]. Group 1: Innovative Drugs - The innovative drug sector is witnessing a significant increase in sales driven by strong domestic demand, with a number of innovative companies achieving profitability [2]. - The trend of domestic innovative drugs going overseas is accelerating, with increasing numbers and values of new drug authorizations [2]. - The pricing power of innovative drugs is improving, reflecting the global competitiveness of Chinese pharmaceutical companies [2]. Group 2: High-Value Medical Consumables - The orthopedic sector is expected to see mild price reductions due to continued domestic substitution and accelerated overseas business progress [2]. - The neurosurgery and neurointervention fields are experiencing stable growth post-collection, with new products being launched [2]. - The high-value consumables market is expected to benefit from ongoing domestic replacement and the introduction of new products [2]. Group 3: Medical Devices - The medical device sector is seeing a recovery in bidding prices, with ongoing high-speed growth in bidding data this year [2]. - Companies are entering a phase of inventory reduction, with performance expected to improve in the second half of the year [2]. - The low-value consumables sector is experiencing product upgrades and accelerated expansion into overseas markets [2]. Group 4: Blood Products - The supply side of the blood products industry is concentrating on central state-owned enterprises, gradually clearing the competitive landscape [2]. - The demand side is expected to see continuous upgrades to new products, with industry sentiment gradually improving [2]. Group 5: API (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients) - The API sector is benefiting from the end of a capital expenditure peak, with three growth logic points driving upward trends: new high-end market products, integrated consolidation and overseas expansion, and cost-leading CDMO [2]. - Leading companies in the API sector are expected to see explosive growth in revenue and profits [2]. Group 6: CXO (Contract Research Organization) - The CXO sector is witnessing a recovery in A+H financing activity, with multiple significant business developments enhancing market confidence [2]. - The focus is on optimizing the supply-side landscape and increasing market share for leading CRO companies [2]. Group 7: Traditional Chinese Medicine and Retail Pharmacy - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is showing signs of recovery, with friendly pricing for new drugs and ongoing observation of collection progress [2]. - The retail pharmacy sector is influenced by the pace of supply-side clearing and business model upgrades, with expectations of increased store closures in the second half of 2025 [2]. Group 8: Research and Development Services - The domestic innovative drug business development is heating up, likely driving downstream demand recovery [2]. - The overseas market presents significant growth opportunities for domestic companies, leveraging cost-effectiveness and service differentiation [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese innovative drug industry is gradually catching up with Europe and the United States in terms of technology, with some targets and technical pathways already leading globally. The number and value of new drugs authorized for overseas markets continue to increase, leading to world-class pricing and non-linear investment elasticity. The domestic market is experiencing strong growth in demand, with domestic new drug sales continuing to rise, and several innovative pharmaceutical companies have turned losses into profits, entering a stable growth phase [2]. Group 1: Innovative Drugs - The innovative drug sector is witnessing a significant increase in sales driven by strong domestic demand, with a number of innovative companies achieving profitability [2]. - The trend of domestic innovative drugs going overseas is accelerating, with increasing numbers and values of new drug authorizations [2]. - The industry is positioned for a "Davis double" effect, where both performance and valuation are expected to improve [2]. Group 2: High-Value Medical Consumables - The orthopedic sector is expected to see mild price reductions, while domestic replacements continue to grow, and overseas business progresses rapidly [2]. - The neurosurgery and neurointervention fields are stabilizing after centralized procurement, with new products expected to contribute to growth [2]. Group 3: Medical Devices - The medical device sector is experiencing a high-speed growth in bidding data, with companies entering a destocking phase, which is expected to improve performance in the second half of the year [2]. - The low-value consumables sector is seeing continuous product upgrades and accelerated expansion into overseas markets [2]. Group 4: Blood Products - The supply side of the blood products industry is increasingly concentrated among state-owned enterprises, leading to a clearer competitive landscape [2]. - The demand side is expected to upgrade towards new products, gradually improving the industry's overall health [2]. Group 5: API (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients) - The industry is at an upward turning point due to the end of a capital expenditure peak, combined with three growth drivers: new high-end market products, integrated consolidation and overseas expansion, and cost-leading CDMO [2]. - Leading companies are expected to see explosive growth in revenue and profits in the medium term [2]. Group 6: CXO (Contract Research Organization) - The CXO sector is seeing a revival in A+H financing activity, with multiple significant business developments enhancing market confidence [2]. - The focus is on optimizing the supply-side landscape and increasing market share for leading CRO companies [2]. Group 7: Traditional Chinese Medicine and Retail Pharmacy - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is showing signs of recovery, with friendly pricing for new drugs, while the retail pharmacy sector is influenced by supply-side adjustments and business model upgrades [2]. - The performance of offline pharmacies is expected to improve in the second half of 2025, with leading chains like YaoXingTang making progress in store upgrades [2]. Group 8: Research Reports - A series of in-depth research reports on various companies and sectors within the pharmaceutical and medical device industries have been published, highlighting their growth potential and market positioning [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical sector in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is expected to see a significant recovery in the first half of 2025, driven by major policy optimizations in medical insurance, a strong recovery in hospital demand, and returns from innovation [1] Pharma Sector - The pharmaceutical sector's revenue and net profit growth rates for the first half of 2025 are -4.04% and -0.50% respectively, with traditional and generic drug companies facing revenue pressure due to centralized procurement policies [2] - Companies with a high proportion of innovative drugs are benefiting from rapid commercialization, maintaining good growth [2] - The sector's R&D expense ratio is 12.69%, up 0.29 percentage points from the first half of 2024, indicating a commitment to innovation [2] - The gross margin and net margin for the sector are 66.83% and 20.73%, respectively, showing improvement due to the higher proportion of high-margin innovative drug revenues [2] Biotech Sector - The biotech sector's revenue growth rate is 14.12%, with a significant contribution from BD licensing income [3] - Many biotech companies are achieving operational profitability through drug commercialization, with companies like BeiGene and Innovent Biologics leading the way [3] - The sector is expected to showcase innovative products at international conferences, indicating a strong presence in global innovation [3] Medical Devices - The medical device sector's revenue and net profit growth rates for the first half of 2025 are -5.11% and -17.99%, respectively, due to policy disruptions and delayed procurement funding [4] - Despite the overall decline, certain sub-sectors show promise, with expectations of a turning point in Q3 2025 [5] CRO and CDMO - The CRO sector's revenue growth is 14.05%, with net profit growth of 18.34%, benefiting from a recovery in overseas investment and innovation [8] - The CDMO sector's revenue growth is 10.34%, with strong demand for projects in drug development and production [9] Blood Products - The blood products sector's revenue growth is 0.64%, with net profit declining by 13.06%, but long-term growth remains strong due to increasing domestic supply [12] Internet Healthcare - The internet healthcare sector is experiencing a significant upward trend, with a revenue growth rate of 16.31% and a net profit growth rate of 134.16%, indicating a shift towards profitability [18]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Pharmaceutical Industry Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical industry experienced a profit decline in 2019 due to centralized procurement policies, but demand growth during the pandemic provided some relief. By the first half of 2025, segments such as innovative drugs, pharmaceutical commerce, and CXO showed positive growth, although overall profit levels continued to decline [1][2]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Centralized Procurement Impact**: The centralized procurement of medical consumables began in 2020, leading to negative revenue growth for two consecutive quarters by Q4 2023. However, Q1 2024 saw a return to positive revenue growth, indicating a stabilization in high-value consumables [3][4]. - **Sector Performance**: The chemical preparations sector saw significant revenue declines in Q3 and Q4 of 2023, directly linked to centralized procurement policies. The medical consumables sector has faced revenue and profit pressures since 2022, with in vitro diagnostics (IVD) expected to face challenges starting Q4 2024 [5][6]. - **Future Outlook**: The worst period for the pharmaceutical industry is believed to be over, with price issues being resolved. The price levels are relatively low compared to international markets, and a return to positive growth is anticipated in Q2 2025, potentially leading to an overall positive growth for the year [6][7]. Segment-Specific Insights - **CXO Sector**: The CXO sector is divided into demand-driven and supply-driven enterprises. The latter has benefited from the recovery of overseas markets, while domestic demand-driven companies are beginning to show signs of recovery, as evidenced by the performance of companies like Tigermed and Northstar [7][8]. - **IVD Sector**: The IVD sector is under significant pressure due to policy impacts, with a notable 20% decline in Roche's domestic luminescence business. The overall industry growth rate is approximately -15% [12][13]. - **Medical Equipment**: The medical equipment sector has faced continuous declines since Q4 2023, but signs of recovery were noted in the first half of 2025, with companies like United Imaging and Mindray showing varying degrees of recovery [17][18]. Additional Important Points - **High-Value Consumables**: The high-value consumables sector has undergone multiple rounds of centralized procurement, leading to stable or improved performance for many companies. The gross margin levels for high-value consumables have reached a bottom, with certain products like artificial crystals beginning to see the effects of procurement policies [19][20]. - **Internationalization of Domestic Companies**: Domestic high-value consumables companies are enhancing their international capabilities, with significant clinical data published and FDA certifications obtained for products aimed at the U.S. market [23]. - **Market Competition**: The competition in the luminescence industry is intense, particularly among companies outside the top three, which are resorting to price cuts to gain market share, resulting in significant declines in gross margins [13][14]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the pharmaceutical industry, highlighting the challenges and opportunities within various segments.