Investment Ratings - Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY): Neutral [6] - Eli Lilly (LLY): Buy [10] - Novartis (NOVN): Neutral [16] - Sanofi (SNY): Neutral [17] - Biogen (BIIB): Buy [20] - Insmed Therapeutics (INSM): Buy [25] - Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ): Buy [29] - MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX): Buy [36] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of idiosyncratic catalysts in the biopharma sector, particularly in the context of macroeconomic volatility and healthcare policy uncertainty [1] - Key catalysts to watch in 3Q25 include pivotal studies from various companies, with a focus on Alzheimer's disease, obesity, Sjogren's syndrome, multiple sclerosis, and gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma [1][5] - The report highlights the potential for significant market opportunities based on upcoming trial results and regulatory approvals, particularly for drugs like Cobenfy, orforglipron, ianalumab, tolebrutinib, and zanidatamab [1][5][10][18][30] Summary by Company Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) - Monitoring Phase 3 data from the Cobenfy ADEPT-2 trial in Alzheimer's disease psychosis, with a primary completion date in July [8] - The trial's success could have implications for a large patient population, with approximately 6 million Alzheimer's patients in the U.S. [8][9] Eli Lilly (LLY) - Focus on the ATTAIN-1 trial for orforglipron in obesity without diabetes, with results expected in July [10] - Anticipated weight loss efficacy in the 12-15% range, with safety and tolerability being key metrics [13] Novartis (NOVN) - Key focus on ianalumab's readouts in Sjogren's syndrome and immune thrombocytopenia, with a potential peak sales opportunity of approximately $2 billion [18] Sanofi (SNY) - Expected data from the Phase 3 PERSEUS trial of tolebrutinib in primary progressive multiple sclerosis, with a primary completion date in July [19] Biogen (BIIB) - Monitoring Leqembi's commercial trajectory in early-onset Alzheimer's disease, with a potential peak sales of approximately $800 million [21] Insmed Therapeutics (INSM) - Regulatory review of brensocatib for bronchiectasis, with a PDUFA date of August 12 [25] - Potential for significant upside if approved with a broad label [27] Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) - Anticipating topline data from the HERIZON-GEA-01 trial for zanidatamab in gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma, with a potential peak sales opportunity exceeding $2 billion [30] MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) - Reporting topline results from the Ph. 3 VELA trials for sonelokimab in hidradenitis suppurativa, with expectations for best-in-class efficacy [36]

3 July 2025 | 8:45AM AEST Metals & Mining: Gold Addressing key questions in gold equities Following our initiations on VAU, WGX, PNR (Buy) and GMD, RMS, GGP (Neutral), we look to address key ongoing investor questions on the following key themes across Australian gold equities: Details within. Hugo Nicolaci +61(2)9321-8323 | hugo.nicolaci@gs.com Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd Marcus Dosanjh +61(2)9321-8780 | marcus.dosanjh@gs.com Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd Paul Young +61(2)9321-8302 | paul.young1@gs.c ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a shift in the forecast for the next Fed rate cut to September from December, suggesting a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that disinflationary pressures are emerging, with expectations that tariffs will have only a one-time effect on price levels. The labor market remains healthy, but job finding has become more challenging [1]. - The report anticipates two additional 25 basis point cuts in interest rates later in the year, with a terminal rate forecast of 3-3.25% [1]. - The market is beginning to price in faster Fed easing, which could lead to a weaker Dollar and higher gold prices, benefiting equities depending on the growth backdrop [2]. Summary by Sections Earlier Fed Cuts - The forecast for the next Fed rate cut has been moved to September, with expectations of two more cuts in October and December [1]. - The terminal rate is now expected to be between 3-3.25%, down from a previous range of 3.5-3.75% [1]. US and UK Fiscal Policy - The report discusses the potential impact of the Trump Administration's fiscal policy, particularly the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which may enhance foreign investment appetite in the US [8]. - UK fiscal policy is also under scrutiny due to recent selloffs in Gilts, indicating a need for close monitoring [8]. Q2 Earnings Season - The upcoming Q2 earnings season is expected to show S&P 500 firms beating consensus estimates, with insights into how companies are adapting to higher tariffs [8]. - It is assumed that US consumers will absorb 70% of the direct costs of tariffs, but lower pass-through rates could pose risks to corporate margins [8]. Commodities Outlook - Oil markets are pricing a low probability of major supply disruptions, with expectations of falling oil prices due to strong supply growth [8]. - Conversely, gold prices are expected to rise due to increased central bank demand, and US copper prices may also see significant upside due to potential tariffs [8]. SLR Reform - The Fed's supplementary leverage ratio reform is anticipated to benefit banks by providing more flexibility for short-term secured financing and potentially increasing Treasury purchases during stress periods [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the copper market, forecasting a price of $10,050 per ton for LME copper in August, with potential upside risks due to competition between China and the US for copper supplies [4]. Core Insights - China's refined copper demand has increased by 12% year-to-date as of May, driven by strong domestic demand and a significant rise in solar installations and air conditioning sales [1][39]. - The report anticipates a slowdown in China's refined copper demand growth in the second half of 2025, projecting a 6% growth for the year, influenced by lower exports and declining policy support for renewables and home appliances [1]. - The global copper market is tightening, particularly outside the US, due to increased imports from China and record low inventories [4]. Summary by Sections Price Forecasts - The forecast for LME copper is $9,934 per ton as of July 1, 2025, with expectations of reaching $10,000 in the next three months and $10,750 by 2027 [12]. Copper: Supply & Demand Tracker - Global copper mine production is up 2% year-to-date, with a forecast of a 1% year-over-year increase for the full year 2025 [32]. - World refined copper production has increased by 3% year-to-date, with a forecast of a 2% year-over-year increase for 2025 [34]. Copper: Physical Market Indicators - The report indicates that global visible copper stocks are only partially capturing US stockpiling, suggesting a tighter market [13]. Speculative Positioning - Speculative positioning in the copper market is concentrated due to tariff anticipation and tightening fundamentals outside the US [108].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework review is ongoing, with a revised "Statement of Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy" expected to be released later this summer [2] - The last framework review in 2020 was influenced by low inflation and concerns about the zero lower bound (ZLB), leading to the adoption of "flexible average inflation targeting" (FAIT) [6][7] - Critics argue that the 2020 changes contributed to high inflation during the pandemic, although Fed officials have defended these strategies [8] - The FOMC is likely to revert to responding to "deviations" from maximum employment and return to flexible inflation targeting as its main strategy [10][12] - Proposed changes to communication practices include providing alternative economic scenarios and linking individual projections for the economy and interest rates [15][37] Summary by Sections Framework Review - The FOMC will announce changes to its communication practices in the fall, with adjustments likely to the consensus statement [5] - The review aims to address the effectiveness of the current framework in light of recent economic challenges [6] Key Changes from 2020 Review - The 2020 review emphasized responding to "shortfalls" from maximum employment and introduced FAIT, allowing inflation to overshoot 2% [7][8] - The FOMC is expected to reconsider the "shortfalls" language and may adopt a more robust approach to inflation targeting [10][12] Proposed Communication Innovations - Proposal 1: Publishing alternative economic scenarios to highlight risks and improve market understanding of the Fed's reaction function [16][17] - Proposal 2: Linking individual economic and interest rate projections to provide clearer insights into participants' reaction functions [37][41]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the oil industry but indicates expectations for production increases and market stability, suggesting a cautious outlook on investment opportunities in the sector. Core Insights - Crude oil prices have remained stable as market attention shifts to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, where an increase in production is anticipated [1][2] - Global visible commercial stocks have increased by 1.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) over the last three months, indicating a mixed supply-demand balance [3][5] - US crude production reached an all-time high in April but is expected to decline in the following months [5][34] - Gasoline and diesel margins have retreated from mid-June highs but remain elevated due to tight clean product stocks [4][59] Summary by Sections Production and Supply - OPEC+ is expected to announce a production increase of 411 kb/d, with the possibility of further increases after August due to non-OPEC supply growth [1][2] - US Lower 48 crude production nowcast stands at 11.1 mb/d, slightly above previous expectations, while Canada liquids production has edged down to 5.7 mb/d [26][32] - OPEC8+ crude and condensate seaborne net exports have increased by 0.2 mb/d year-over-year [37] Demand - Global trackable oil demand nowcast is 0.1 mb/d above its year-ago level, with China oil demand at 16.9 mb/d, reflecting a slight increase [42][45] - OECD Europe oil demand nowcast stands at 13.3 mb/d, indicating a stable demand environment [48] Inventories - OECD commercial stocks nowcast has decreased by 7 mb to 2,755 mb, which is 91 mb below the year-ago level [18][22] - Global commercial stocks have increased by 17 mb, indicating a build-up in inventories [5][14] Prices and Margins - The gap between Brent 1M/36M timespread and its inventory-implied fair value has widened to 14 percentage points, indicating potential pricing pressure [51] - Refining margins in the US Gulf Coast remain supported due to the concentration of refining capacity in the region [4][59] Geopolitical Factors - The report highlights that geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, could influence oil supply dynamics and market stability [1][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Alibaba, Meituan, and PDD, while highlighting JD as a potential multiple repair/re-rating story [14][15][18]. Core Insights - The competition intensity among eCommerce players, particularly Alibaba, JD, and Meituan, in food delivery and instant shopping has escalated, with an estimated aggregate investment of Rmb25 billion (approximately US$3 billion) in the June quarter alone [9]. - The report estimates a total addressable market (TAM) of Rmb2.4 trillion for food delivery and Rmb1.5 trillion for instant shopping by 2030, driven by increased platform subsidies and user acquisitions [4][40]. - The ultimate goal for these companies is to become the "everyday app" for transactions, facilitating cross-selling across various goods and services [12][56]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The food delivery competitive landscape is rapidly evolving, with Meituan achieving 90 million daily orders and Alibaba's Taobao Instant Commerce reaching 60 million peak daily orders [34]. - The report anticipates a re-acceleration of on-demand eCommerce penetration in China, projecting a TAM of Rmb1.5 trillion by 2030 [35][42]. Financial Projections - The report outlines three scenarios for food delivery and instant shopping, with a base case projecting a 5.5:3.5:1 market share between Meituan, Alibaba, and JD [10][27]. - Estimated losses for Alibaba and JD in food delivery are projected at Rmb-41 billion and Rmb-26 billion, respectively, over the next 12 months [9]. Company-Specific Insights - JD is expected to disproportionately benefit if it stabilizes its food delivery scale, while PDD is positioned to have a more resilient profit setup due to its lack of direct involvement in the food delivery competition [10][18]. - Meituan's strategic pivot towards centralized kitchens aims to enhance food safety and reduce delivery costs, which could improve long-term unit economics [11][54]. User Engagement and Traffic - The report notes a significant increase in daily active users (DAU) for both JD and Taobao, with a combined increase of 50 million DAU to approximately 410 million [12][56]. - The consolidation of offerings into a single app is seen as a strategy to monetize increased engagement from high-frequency food delivery [57].

2 July 2025 | 4:24PM HKT WuXi Biologics (2269.HK): China Healthcare Corporate Day 2025 — Key Takeaways: on-track to deliver revenue guidance; capacity We hosted WuXi Biologics's IR team with investors (virtual) on Jul 2 at our China Healthcare Corporate Day 2025. Bottom line: Mgmt noted 1) on track to deliver FY25 revenue guidance (+12-15% y/y, or +17-20% y/y for continuing operations), supported by robust BD (business development) momentum and healthy new client order; 2) Leading biotech & pharma clients i ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies including Asymchem, Weigao, AngelAlign, and Hygeia, while Tigermed is rated as "Neutral" [28]. Core Insights - The momentum in the CDMO sector continues into Q2 2025, with a focus on opportunities arising from China biotech licensing and GLP-1 developments, although revenue potential remains unclear due to technical complexities [2][10]. - The MedTech and Services sectors are experiencing a muted recovery, with ongoing policy headwinds affecting pricing and volumes, but some companies are showing resilience through new product launches and overseas expansion [3][14]. Summary by Sections CDMO/CRO - Q2 order momentum has sustained from Q1, with most companies reporting qualitative trends, while quantitative updates are expected in July/August [9]. - Top-tier CDMOs derive only 10-20% of their revenue from China, limiting the earnings impact from recent biotech licensing deals [2][9]. - Asymchem is favored for margin improvement in FY25, driven by emerging services, particularly in obesity-related modalities [2]. MedTech & Services - Recovery in device and service volumes remains subdued, with DRG/DIP reforms continuing to pressure pricing and volumes, though minimally invasive surgeries are less affected [3][14]. - Weigao is highlighted for its attractive valuation and new product contributions, while AngelAlign is on track for global expansion [3][14]. - Surgical volumes showed mild recovery in 1H25, with expectations for stronger growth in 2H due to easing policy headwinds [14][16]. Services - Ongoing reimbursement and regulatory pressures are challenges, but there are signs of improvement in reimbursement efficiency [17]. - Companies like Gushengtang are shifting towards self-pay services to align with rising demand from the "silver economy" [20]. - M&A sentiment is improving, with companies like Hygeia exploring partnerships for capacity expansion [20]. Guidance - WuXi Apptec expects FY25 revenue growth of 10-15%, while Asymchem anticipates double-digit growth alongside margin improvements [21]. - Weigao projects FY25 revenue growth of 10-15%, and Gushengtang aims for over 25% growth [21].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BioKangtai is Neutral with a 12-month price target of Rmb19, indicating an upside potential of 25.6% from the current price of Rmb15.13 [10][9]. Core Insights - BioKangtai's DTaP-Hib vaccine sales are expected to decline by approximately 80% in 2025, which will offset the revenue growth from newly launched products such as the varicella vaccine and human diploid cell rabies vaccine [2][8]. - The company anticipates some level of revenue growth in 2025 despite the decline in DTaP-Hib sales, supported by the strong performance of PCV13, which has a penetration rate nearing 30% [2][8]. - Significant increases in R&D expenses are expected due to pipeline expansion and clinical advancements, leading to profit targets remaining roughly flat compared to 2024 [2][8]. Business Performance Update - The ongoing anti-corruption campaign in the healthcare industry has led to a reduction in inventory levels within the CDC systems, negatively impacting shipment volumes and revenue in 2024 [2]. - The company has observed continued growth in actual sales of PCV13, with strong revenue growth in Q1 2025 supported by the ramp-up in sales of newly launched vaccines [2][8]. Overseas Business Progress and Outlook - BioKangtai's international expansion aims to increase capacity utilization with minimal additional costs, although overseas business is not expected to significantly contribute to revenue growth in the near term due to low vaccine prices in developing countries [3][6]. Pipeline Development Update - The company expects key pipeline projects, including the DTcP-IPV-Hib vaccine and PCV20, to be approved in 2027 and 2028, respectively [7]. - The approval and launch of the IPV vaccine is anticipated within the current year, followed by adsorbed tetanus and quadrivalent influenza vaccines in 2026 [7]. - There is a growing emphasis on adult vaccine development in response to declining birth rates, with potential expansion into other business areas such as antibody drug development [7].