先是诺华以30亿美元与Dren Bio达成合作，利用后者开发的靶向髓系细胞衔接器和吞噬平台开发双抗疗法；紧接着赛诺菲直接以6亿美元首付款 买下Dren Bio的DR-0201，这个CD20靶向MCE在难治性红斑狼疮患者身上出现18个月无治疗缓解期，正在加速进击自免市场。而继与礼来达成 合作后，泽安生物又与GSK签下4个MCE项目合作协议…… 尽管在交易金额层面还难与TCE相比，但从如今的交易及临床推进情况上看，MCE这条新的免疫疗法赛道，正在快速成形。 机制上，MCE疗法靶向髓样细胞能降低CRS的风险，在适应症范围上可能应用更广，这也是MCE获得大药企青睐的关键。 当然，MCE能否成为"下一个TCE"，甚至超越之，还需要更多的临床数据来证明。 TCE自去年以来相当火热，诞生了多笔重磅交易。而在结构上与其类似的髓系细胞衔接器（MCE），也突然从小众机制分子,跃升为多家MNC 争抢的战略资产。 / 01 / 大药企开始加注 作为一项新兴的技术，MCE的入局者并不算多，但多笔大药企主导的重磅交易已经提示,MCE正成为免疫疗法赛道中最受关注的技术之一。而 这些密集交易背后，也是各家药企不同却明确的战略诉求。 最先引爆 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the autoimmune dual-antibody sector [1]. Core Insights - The dual-antibody technology platform in the autoimmune disease field shows significant potential, with real-world clinical data validating its effectiveness. The focus should be on target selection and preclinical optimization, which are critical for determining clinical efficacy [3]. - The TCE (T-cell engagers) field is recommended to focus on combinations of CD3 with CD19/BCMA targets, while also being cautious of infection and low immunoglobulin levels as potential risks [3]. - There is a growing market for autoimmune diseases, with the global treatment market expected to exceed $220 billion by 2035, driven by increasing patient numbers in conditions like rheumatoid arthritis and psoriasis [19][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Autoimmune Disease Market Overview - There are over 150 types of autoimmune diseases, categorized into organ-specific and systemic types, with a significant patient population globally [13][15]. - The market for autoimmune disease treatments is projected to grow from $40 billion in 2023 to $263 billion by 2032 in China, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.3% [21][19]. 2. Rise of Bispecific and Multispecific Antibodies - Bispecific antibodies (BsAbs) are emerging as a future direction for antibody drugs, with a market size expected to reach $484.8 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 44.2% [31]. - The report highlights the rapid growth in sales of approved bispecific antibody drugs, with 19 products currently on the market [31]. 3. TCE Clinical Potential in Autoimmune Diseases - TCE therapies have shown significant clinical effects in various autoimmune diseases, with products like Teclistamab demonstrating strong B-cell clearance capabilities [3][19]. - The report emphasizes the need for careful clinical pre-screening for immunogenicity in dual-antibody products targeting multiple inflammatory pathways [3]. 4. Company Recommendations - For unlisted companies, the report recommends focusing on Huasheng Zhiyuan, Yikesite, and Huao Tai Biological, all of which have products with BD potential [3]. - For listed companies, it suggests paying attention to Weili Zhibo, Kangnuo Ya, and Quanxin Biological, particularly regarding their pipeline products and clinical data [3].

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 小豪只投创新药 来源：雪球 6 月 12 日我在《如何押注创新药的BD》一文中，详细阐述了将「N」业务视为或有 upside 的完整逻辑。然而其后三个月，"赌 BD"一路飞升， "赌 BD"逐渐从合理化变成妖魔化 ：从猜测最有机会的交易，到子虚莫有、几乎不可能发生的交易，都被市场提前计价；"可比交易定价法"逐渐异 化为"预告式定价法"、"MNC 名片定价法"、"晒聊天记录截图定价法"。 当预期明显被透支时，我在 9 月 6 日《后BD时代》中明确警告， 我们应把焦点移回 BD 落地后公司能够沉淀的长期价值，而不只是追逐短期的 交易刺激。 事实也印证了这一点：自 9 月初开始，以"赌 BD"为主线的整个创新药行情，普遍来到阶段性高位。"赌 BD"的公司率先大幅回撤，甚 至波及到其他"已 BD "的公司。 这类预期若长时间未能通过实际BD落实验证，就容易滋生估值泡沫。一旦BD进度不及预期，相关公司的股价可能面临剧烈回调。 ——后BD时代 我们需要接纳泡沫的形成，也要以平常心对待泡沫的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical industry has shown a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.98% in revenue and 11.60% in net profit, although the decline has narrowed compared to the first half of the year [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Overall Industry Performance - The overall revenue and net profit of the pharmaceutical sector continue to decline year-on-year, but the rate of decline has decreased compared to the first half of the year [2]. Subsector Performance - The biopharmaceutical upstream, medical information technology, CRO/CMO, and research reagents sectors have shown strong growth in net profit [1][2]. - The biopharmaceutical upstream, CRO/CMO, medical devices, and home appliances sectors have experienced both revenue and net profit growth [1][2]. Key Sector Insights - **Pharmaceuticals and Innovative Drugs**: The chemical pharmaceutical sector has seen a narrowing of revenue decline, while profits remain under pressure. Innovative drug companies are advancing commercialization and internationalization, leading to significant revenue growth and reduced losses, with leading companies performing steadily [2]. - **CXO**: The industry returned to positive growth in the first half of 2025, with trends continuing into Q3. The CDMO sector shows stable demand, and the CRO sector has seen a notable improvement in order quantity and pricing expectations [2]. - **Upstream Pharmaceutical Chain**: Q3 of 2025 shows signs of recovery with significant profit improvement and gross margin enhancement, benefiting from domestic substitution and demand recovery [3]. - **Medical Devices**: Q3 revenue growth has turned positive, with a noticeable reduction in the year-on-year decline in profits. Several companies are expected to continue improving their performance, with accelerated growth anticipated in 2026 compared to 2025 [3]. - **Medical Services**: Q3 revenue has slightly declined year-on-year, but some consumer medical service companies have stabilized and increased their average transaction value [3]. - **Traditional Chinese Medicine**: Q3 performance has shown a narrowing decline compared to previous quarters, with optimism for demand recovery in the year-end peak season [3]. - **Vaccines**: The sector has experienced a significant year-on-year decline in both revenue and profit for the first three quarters, with future focus on sales improvement and innovation pipeline progress [3]. - **Blood Products**: Revenue has remained stable, but profits are under continued pressure. There is an expectation for a balanced supply-demand situation to recover, with attention on plasma station expansion and industry mergers [3]. - **Pharmaceutical Retail**: Q3 revenue growth has improved quarter-on-quarter, with profits maintaining rapid growth; prior stock price reactions have been sufficient, and attention is on diverse catalysts [3]. - **Pharmaceutical Distribution**: Q3 revenue growth has improved quarter-on-quarter, with impairment provisions affecting profits. Leading companies are stabilizing operations, with future focus on payment recovery and long-term growth expectations from the 14th Five-Year Plan [3]. Investment Outlook for H2 2025 - The company continues to seek new growth and industry consolidation opportunities, with a focus on innovation, global competitiveness, and the assessment of international competitiveness in innovative drugs and medical devices [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of a new investment paradigm in China's innovative pharmaceutical sector, exemplified by the first "Fusion NewCo" model, which emphasizes the importance of small, efficient teams in driving innovation and the role of local capital in accelerating development [2][3]. Group 1: NewCo Model - The "NewCo" model is designed to facilitate rapid market entry for innovative drugs by involving investment institutions from the outset, focusing on value verification and global transactions [3][5]. - The recent establishment of the first domestic "Fusion NewCo" by Hongyi Investment and Aikou Lian Bio signifies a shift where local capital begins to dominate the value release pathway for Chinese innovative drugs [3][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Chinese innovative drug sector is transitioning from an "introduction" phase to a "leadership" phase in global markets, driven by unique advantages in research efficiency and cost [5][9]. - Data indicates that Phase I clinical trials in China can be completed 25% to 55% faster than in overseas companies, with costs only 30% to 50% of multinational corporations (MNCs) [5][9]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Hongyi Investment's strategy focuses on leveraging local resources and optimizing asset allocation to capture investment opportunities in innovative drugs [9][10]. - The company aims to establish a "NewCo Plus platform + fund" model, which integrates top scientists, efficient clinical operations, and international business development channels to create a robust ecosystem for innovation [10][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The "NewCo Plus" model is expected to evolve into a Hub-and-Spoke structure, allowing for centralized resource management and enabling multiple NewCos to focus on technological breakthroughs [11][12]. - This approach is anticipated to significantly reduce the time required for innovative drugs to reach market readiness, enhancing capital turnover rates for investors [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - 招银国际 has initiated coverage on Valiant Bio-B (09887), expressing optimism about its focus on developing immune checkpoint therapies and other innovative treatments, assigning a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 63.5 [1] Company Summary - Valiant Bio-B specializes in developing immune therapies, including co-stimulatory agonists and checkpoint inhibitors, while also expanding into areas such as CD3 T cell engagers and antibody-drug conjugates (ADC) [1] - The company has developed proprietary platforms, namely the Leads Body platform and X-body platform, which serve as engines for continuous drug discovery [1] - The firm is particularly optimistic about Valiant Bio-B's development of PD-L1/4-1BB and TCE as next-generation immuno-oncology (IO) therapies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising trend of business development (BD) in the Chinese innovative pharmaceutical sector, highlighting significant transactions and the evolving landscape of BD strategies among companies and investors [5][11]. BD Trends - Many fund teams are researching the next BD trends and adjusting their investments accordingly, with a notable increase in BD transaction amounts in China, exceeding $48.4 billion in the first half of 2025, including over $2 billion in upfront payments [5][6]. - The impact of BD news on companies' short-term strategies is significant, especially in a resource-constrained environment where pipeline prioritization is critical [5][6]. Major BD Events - Significant transactions this year include a $60.5 billion collaboration between 3SBio and Pfizer, setting a record for domestic dual antibodies, and a $53.3 billion deal between CSPC and AstraZeneca [8][9]. - The trend is shifting towards "packaged" BD deals, which help build trust between companies, as MNCs remain cautious about the long-term delivery capabilities of Chinese biotech firms [9][10]. Changes in Perception of Going Global - The perception of Chinese innovative drugs going global has evolved, with a shift from high barriers to entry to recognizing numerous opportunities as MNCs actively seek partnerships [12][13]. - The focus has shifted to products that can be standardized and have a proven track record in China, indicating that BD opportunities are increasingly competitive [12][13]. High-Value BD Opportunities - The PD-1/VEGF dual antibody market is highlighted as a high-value area, with multiple Chinese biotech firms entering clinical stages and generating significant BD events [13][14]. - The TCE (T-cell engagers) sector is also emerging as a promising area for BD, with substantial transaction amounts already recorded [15]. Future Considerations - The BD landscape is expected to evolve, with uncertainties about the long-term sustainability of current successes and the potential impact of future clinical data on the reputation of Chinese biotech [17][18]. - Concerns exist regarding the sustainability of companies focusing solely on BD, as excessive reliance on selling core pipelines may hinder future growth and exit strategies [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities highlights the rise of innovative drugs in China, indicating that the industry is in the early stages of realizing innovation outcomes, with significant opportunities for independent development and large-scale licensing transactions in the future [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The global oncology immunotherapy landscape is entering a new era characterized by the combination of PD-1 and TAA (tumor-associated antigens) with cytokines [2] - Multinational pharmaceutical companies are facing patent cliffs for their blockbuster drugs while new innovative drug assets are rapidly emerging globally, including in China, leading to a trend of licensing agreements to fill pipeline gaps [2] - The global innovative drug business development (BD) upfront payments have reached the billion-dollar level, with China accounting for 40% of the total upfront payments [2] Group 2: Drug Development Focus - The evolution from single antibodies to dual and multi-target molecules is ongoing, with a focus on enhancing efficacy and reducing toxicity [3] - The exploration of new molecular constructs has progressed from combinations of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) and TAAs to combinations with cytokines like IL-2, aiming for better therapeutic outcomes [3][4] - The next wave of innovation in the post-PD-1 era is just beginning, with numerous companies exploring combinations of PD-1 with IL-2 and other structural innovations [4] Group 3: Potential Investment Targets - The report suggests that promising new products may emerge from segments such as TCE (T-cell engagers), other dual/multi-antibodies, and innovative ADCs (antibody-drug conjugates), with a focus on leading clinical enterprises [5] - Recommended companies to watch include Innovent Biologics (01801), Kintor Pharmaceutical (09926), and Kelun-Biotech (06990) [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for WuXi Biologics is Neutral, with a 12-month price target of HK$23.40, indicating a downside potential of 8.8% from the current price of HK$25.65 [9]. Core Insights - WuXi Biologics is on track to deliver FY25 revenue guidance, expecting a year-over-year growth of 12-15%, or 17-20% for continuing operations, driven by strong business development momentum and healthy new client orders [2][6]. - The company is experiencing robust demand from leading biotech and pharma clients in the US and Europe, with improving funding conditions for Chinese biotech, although budget increases for new projects may take time [2][6]. - WuXi Biologics is progressing well on global capacity expansion, with operations in Singapore expected to commence by year-end 2025, and ongoing optimization of non-core assets, including the divestment of its facility in Germany [2][7]. Summary by Sections Revenue Guidance and Demand - Management confirmed that the company is on track to meet its revenue guidance for FY25, supported by strong business development activities and a healthy order book [2][6]. - Demand is primarily driven by the US and European markets, with leading players actively advancing projects [6]. Capacity Expansion - The company is executing its capital expenditure plans effectively, with utilization rates improving across both domestic and international sites [7]. - The Singapore site is set to begin operations by the end of 2025, with a large drug product facility also under development to support future growth [7]. Client Demand and Milestones - There is robust demand for Antibody-Drug Conjugates (ADCs), with a pipeline increase of 35.7% year-over-year, reaching 194 projects as of the end of 2024 [7]. - A milestone payment of US$65 million is expected to be booked in the first half of 2025, following a previous US$75 million recognized in the second half of 2024 [7].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Cloud is accelerating the localization of database software with the launch of the TDSQL integrated version, which aims to provide a secure and efficient database solution for enterprises [1][4]. Group 1: Product Development - The TDSQL database is fully compatible with MySQL and PostgreSQL, achieving 100% compatibility with MySQL and 98% with Oracle syntax, facilitating smooth migration for enterprises [4][6]. - TDSQL, developed since 2009, has evolved to support various applications in finance and government, breaking world database performance records in 2023 [6][9]. Group 2: Market Context - Oracle has historically dominated the Chinese market with over 70% market share in the 1990s to 2010, but its high costs and performance issues have led to a push for domestic alternatives [7][8]. - The Chinese relational database market is now led by local companies, with Alibaba, Tencent, and Huawei holding 26.2%, 14.9%, and 11.1% market shares respectively, according to IDC 2023 [9]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Tencent has invested in a comprehensive suite of domestic software solutions, including TDSQL, TencentOS, and various industry-specific applications, to support innovation across multiple sectors [11]. - The company collaborates with over 50 partners to create 65 replicable industry solutions, addressing the needs of finance, government, healthcare, and more [11].