Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The ongoing impact of tariffs is significantly affecting global freight flows, with a notable shift in sentiment regarding trade with China [1] - A resurgence in trade with China is anticipated, particularly in retail and consumer goods, as shippers prepare for back-to-school and peak season [1] - Trade uncertainty continues to keep shippers in a cautious 'wait and see' mode, particularly regarding the impact of 30% tariffs on demand [4][10] Summary by Sections Weekly Data Observations - Year-over-year (YoY) laden container vessels from China to the US have decreased by -11.1%, showing a sequential increase of approximately 6% from the previous week [15] - TEU imports into the Port of Los Angeles are expected to surge by 16% sequentially next week, but forecasts indicate a potential drop of -41% in vessels two weeks out [4][10] - The report highlights the volatility of weekly data, suggesting that trends should be assessed over a multi-week basis [7] Trade Scenarios for 2025 - Two potential scenarios for 2025 are identified: a surge in pull-forward activity ahead of a 90-day tariff pause, or a slowdown in orders due to uncertainty [8] - The report suggests a shift towards the first scenario, complicating predictions for transport volumes and earnings [9] Container and TEU Trends - TEUs from China to the US have dropped to -7.1% YoY, improving from -17.5% the previous week, indicating a pause in activity after a surge in April [23] - The report notes that container rates remain flat despite expected demand increases from China, possibly due to an oversupply of ships [11] Port Activity and Freight Rates - Planned TEUs into the Port of Los Angeles were down -14% YoY, with forecasts indicating a sharp increase of 57% YoY next week, followed by a drop of -35% [42] - The report indicates that intermodal traffic on the West Coast was up 4% on average, reflecting front-loaded traffic from earlier weeks [51] Inventory and Economic Indicators - The Logistics Managers Index (LMI) shows upstream inventory expansion slowing to 57.6 in April from 58.9 in March, while downstream inventory expansion also slowed significantly [74]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK) with a 12-month target price of HK$62.00, representing an upside potential of 21.6% from the current price of HK$51.00 [1]. Core Insights - Strong sales in the AIoT segment are expected to drive higher profits in 1Q25, with significant growth in various product categories [1][2]. - The upcoming strategic product launch event is anticipated to unveil key innovations, including the XRING O1 chip and new premium smartphone models, which could enhance Xiaomi's competitive position [2][3]. - The report highlights Xiaomi's structural market share gains in China, particularly against competitors like Apple and Honor, despite a less optimistic overseas shipment outlook [3]. Financial Performance - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 remain largely unchanged, while adjusted net profit forecasts have been raised by 3-6% due to stronger IoT sales and gross profit outlook [17]. - For 1Q25, revenue is projected to grow by 45% year-on-year to RMB 109.5 billion, with adjusted net profit expected to increase by 70% year-on-year to RMB 9.4 billion [17]. Market Position and Growth - In the AIoT segment, Xiaomi's domestic sales of air conditioners, washing machines, and refrigerators saw year-on-year growth of 103%, 184%, and 145%, respectively, in 1Q25 [16]. - Xiaomi's tablet shipments grew by 57% year-on-year in 1Q25, achieving a No.3 market share globally and in China [16]. - The report anticipates that sales from large appliances and tablets will contribute approximately 40% of AIoT sales by 2027, up from around 30% in 2024 [16][37]. Valuation and Price Target - The 12-month SOTP-based target price for Xiaomi has been adjusted to HK$62, based on a 23x 2026E EV/NOPAT for Xiaomi core and a DCF-based valuation for Xiaomi EV at US$74 billion [18]. - The report indicates multiple share price catalysts in the coming months, including the strategic product launch event and 1Q25 results [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD.com Inc. with target prices of US$50 and HK$194, indicating a potential upside of 39.9% and 43.3% respectively [2][28]. Core Insights - JD.com is viewed as an under-appreciated differentiated business in the Chinese internet sector, benefiting from domestic consumption policies and category expansion, which are expected to drive valuation multiple expansion [2]. - The company reported its fastest quarterly active customer growth since 2021, achieving a 20% year-over-year increase in 1Q25, with strong double-digit growth across all categories [1]. - JD's food delivery service is seen as a synergistic extension of its retail business, with daily order volumes nearing 20 million, contributing to increased user engagement and retention [1][11]. - The company is committed to shareholder returns, having executed a cumulative US$1.5 billion in share repurchases year-to-date 2025, with an additional US$3.5 billion available under its three-year repurchase program [1][10]. Summary by Sections JD Retail Growth - JD Retail experienced a 20% year-over-year growth in active customers in 1Q25, with expectations for double-digit top line and profit growth throughout the year [1]. - The company anticipates a healthy trend during the 618 shopping festival while maintaining disciplined spending [1]. Food Delivery Business - JD views its food delivery service as integral to its retail strategy, enhancing user frequency and attracting new customers [1]. - The company aims to differentiate its food delivery service through quality offerings, rider benefits, and lower merchant charges, leveraging its logistics expertise [1][11]. Shareholder Returns - JD.com has executed a cumulative US$1.5 billion in share repurchases in 2025, with a remaining US$3.5 billion available until August 2027 [1][10].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative trend in the primary property market, with a weighted average property price decrease of 1.7% month-over-month annualized in April, and a year-over-year decline of 4.0% [2][6]. Core Insights - The divergence in property prices between top-tier and lower-tier cities continues, with Tier-1 cities experiencing a sequential increase in primary home prices, while Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities saw declines [6][10]. - Despite ongoing easing policies, the number of cities with sequentially higher property prices has decreased in both primary and secondary markets [6][10]. - The report emphasizes that the 70-city data pertains only to primary market transactions, with secondary market data indicating price declines of 5%-15% over the past year [6][10]. Summary by Sections Price Changes - The weighted average property price in the primary market fell by 1.7% month-over-month annualized in April, compared to a 2.0% decline in March [2][6]. - Year-on-year, the weighted average new home prices decreased by 4.0% in April, an improvement from the 4.5% decline in March [2][6]. City Tier Analysis - Tier-1 cities saw a sequential increase in property prices of 1.7% month-over-month annualized in April, up from 0.8% in March [6][10]. - Conversely, Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities experienced declines of 1.4% and 3.5% month-over-month annualized, respectively [6][10]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a 10% year-over-year decrease in new home transaction volume in major cities as of May [10]. - Policymakers have intensified housing easing efforts, including a recent 25 basis point cut on the housing provident fund mortgage rate, to counteract the property downturn [10].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry or specific companies covered Core Insights - The recent US-China tariff rollback is expected to benefit covered companies directly through reduced tariff costs and indirectly through lower inflation and potentially higher household cash flows [2][4] - The report anticipates that the 90-day window for tariff negotiations may lead to faster-than-expected export growth in Q2 and Q3 as Chinese OEMs resume production for US orders [4] - The report highlights that different companies will have varying impacts from the tariff changes, with OEMs likely to maintain profitability-focused strategies while brands may adopt divergent pricing strategies [6][10] Summary by Sections Tariff Rollback Impact - The US will reduce its tariff increase on China from 145 basis points to 30 basis points, while China will lower its effective tariff rate on US imports to around 30% [1][2] - The tariff rollback is larger than previously expected, leading to revised GDP forecasts for both the US and China [2] Company-Specific Impacts - Companies like Xinbao are expected to see faster revenue growth due to their leading position in the small appliances sector, while brands like Anker, Roborock, and Ecovacs may experience limited revenue changes in the current quarter but better growth in H2 2025 [6][21] - The report revises EPS forecasts for Anker, Xinbao, Roborock, and Ecovacs upwards by 2%-9% for 2025-2027, reflecting the alleviation of demand and margin pressures [21][23] Capital Expenditure and Production Strategies - Limited changes in CAPEX plans are expected in the near term due to ongoing uncertainty regarding future tariff rates [5] - Companies are likely to continue leveraging ASEAN countries for manufacturing, depending on future US tariff rates on the region [5] Share Price and Valuation - Share prices of covered companies rebounded after initial corrections, with major white goods companies expected to be least impacted due to diversified production bases [10][11] - The report notes divergent performance across sub-sectors, with some companies like Anker facing greater downside risks despite a rebound in share prices [11][20]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - China's activity data weakened sequentially in April, reflecting the negative impact of increased US tariffs and soft domestic demand, with a Q2 real GDP growth forecast of 5.0% year-on-year appearing on track despite mixed activity data [1][17] Summary by Relevant Sections Industrial Production - Industrial production (IP) growth declined to 6.1% year-on-year in April from 7.7% in March, slightly above market consensus of 5.7% due to trade re-routing [2][10] - Sequentially, IP contracted by 0.2% month-on-month non-annualized in April [10] - Output growth in computer-related industries slowed significantly, with smartphone and computer output growth dropping to -6.4% and -2.2% year-on-year, respectively [10] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth fell to 3.6% year-on-year in April from 4.3% in March, primarily due to slower infrastructure and property investment growth [11] - Infrastructure investment growth declined to 7.1% year-on-year, while property investment saw a drop of 11.3% year-on-year in April [11] Retail Sales - Retail sales growth slowed to 5.1% year-on-year in April from 5.9% in March, below market consensus of 5.9% [4][12] - Online goods sales, offline goods sales, and restaurant sales revenue growth moderated to 6.1%, 4.7%, and 5.2% year-on-year, respectively [13] Services Industry - The Services Industry Output Index growth remained stable at 6.0% year-on-year in April, down from 6.3% in March [14] - Sequentially, the index fell by 0.2% month-on-month non-annualized in April [14] Property-Related Activity - Property sales growth slowed to -2.1% year-on-year in April from -1.0% in March, with significant declines in new home starts and completions [15] - Real estate investment dropped by 11.3% year-on-year in April [12][15] Labor Market - The nationwide unemployment rate edged down to 5.1% in April from 5.2% in March, with the unemployment rate for migrant workers also decreasing to 4.8% [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious investment rating for the oil industry, with Brent/WTI oil price forecasts set at $60/$56 for the remainder of 2025 and $56/$52 for 2026, which are below the forwards by $4 and $8 respectively [4][8][32]. Core Insights - The price drag from higher Iran supply assumptions and slightly higher than expected OECD commercial stocks offsets the price boost from higher GDP forecasts [3][4]. - Global oil demand growth forecasts for Q4-Q4 have been raised by 0.3mb/d and 0.1mb/d for 2025 and 2026, now projected at 0.6mb/d and 0.4mb/d respectively [5][6]. - The report nudges up Iran's crude supply expectations for 2025H2-2026 to 3.6mb/d, reflecting potential progress on a US-Iran nuclear deal, although the outlook remains uncertain [12][13]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Forecasts - The report maintains Brent/WTI oil price forecasts of $60/$56 for 2025 and $56/$52 for 2026, indicating a cautious outlook due to supply factors [4][8][32]. - The price forecasts have been adjusted slightly upward for May, June, and July 2025 due to a faster-than-expected recovery in risk premiums following the US-China trade deal [6]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Global oil demand growth is expected to be sluggish, with a forecast of 0.6mb/d in 2025 and 0.4mb/d in 2026, driven by lower tariffs and higher GDP [5][10]. - The report anticipates surpluses of 1.0mb/d and 1.5mb/d in 2025 and 2026 respectively, indicating a potential imbalance in the oil market [30]. Geopolitical Factors - The report highlights the uncertainty surrounding US-Iran relations and the potential impact on Iran's crude supply, which could increase if a nuclear deal is reached [12][13]. - Venezuela's supply forecast has also been nudged up based on higher-than-expected realized production [16]. Economic Scenarios - The report outlines various scenarios for oil prices, indicating that downside risks remain significant due to high spare capacity and potential global economic slowdowns [19][20]. - In a scenario of a global GDP slowdown and a full unwind of OPEC cuts, Brent prices could fall to $40 by late 2026 [23][21].

Investment Rating - The report raises the end-2025 US 10-year yield forecast to 4.5% from 4.0% previously, indicating a bullish outlook on US yields [1][6]. Core Views - The larger and faster de-escalation in US-China tariffs has reduced the downside risks for US growth, prompting a reassessment of yield forecasts [1][6]. - The report suggests that the combination of a smaller mechanical tariff headwind and a reversal in financial conditions supports higher long-term yields [6][31]. - The report maintains a bullish stance on Gilts, expecting a substantial rally at the 10-year point, with long-end risk premiums compressing compared to the US [1][6]. Summary by Sections United States and Canada - The US 10-year yield forecast has been revised up to 4.5% for year-end 2025, reflecting a reassessment of the US outlook due to tariff reductions [6][31]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to begin a quarterly cadence of cuts starting in December, reaching a terminal rate of 3.50-3.75% by June 2026 [6][31]. - The report anticipates a steeper CAD curve due to a more supportive domestic fiscal backdrop and a revised 10-year yield forecast of 3.50% for Canada by year-end 2025 [13]. Europe - The report indicates that the risks around the European front-end have shifted, with expectations of two more ECB cuts, but a less accommodative path beyond that [14][20]. - The Bund yield forecast remains unchanged at 2.80% for end-2025 and 3.25% for end-2026, reflecting fiscal expectations [14][20]. - The report highlights that the German curve is influenced by risk sentiment and fiscal expectations, with a potential for fiscal expansion to support growth [14][20]. United Kingdom - The UK is showing progress in moving out of the "low-growth, high-inflation" quadrant, with improved fiscal credibility suggesting a better outlook for Gilt risk premia [20][31]. - The report recommends long 10-year Gilts versus USTs, with an entry point of 51 basis points and a target of 10 basis points [20][31]. Japan - The report revises the forecasts for 5-year and 10-year JGB yields up by 20 and 30 basis points, respectively, to 1.3% and 1.8% by end-2025, due to diminished recession risks [25][27]. - The BOJ's normalization cycle is expected to be prolonged, with a medium-term neutral rate of 1.25-1.5% [31]. Global Outlook - The report emphasizes that global growth concerns will cap Gilt yields in the near term, but ongoing worries about supply and risk premiums remain hurdles [31]. - The report suggests that the macro backdrop of moderate growth and easing policy presents a favorable environment for harvesting vol carry in rates [10][31].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry but highlights various themes and trends impacting covered companies [2]. Core Insights - The report identifies ten key themes shaping the industry landscape through 2025, focusing on the evolution of consumer AI, implications for cloud computing, the blurring lines between advertising and eCommerce, and the impact of digital advertising automation [5][7][39][43]. Summary by Themes Theme 1: The Evolution of the Consumer AI Landscape - The consumer AI landscape is evolving, with major companies like GOOGL and META positioned to capitalize on changing consumer behaviors through innovative AI applications [20][21]. Theme 2: The Implications of AI for Cloud Computing & CapEx - AI is expected to drive significant growth in cloud computing, with companies like AMZN and GOOGL focusing on stable revenue trends and capital investments to support AI workloads [29][30]. Theme 3: The Lines Between Advertising and eCommerce Models Continue to Blur - Companies are increasingly adopting partnership models rather than competing directly, with GOOGL, META, and AMZN well-positioned to benefit from social commerce trends [39][40]. Theme 4: Digital Advertising Shifts to AI Automation & Direct Response - The digital advertising sector is shifting towards AI-driven automation, with platforms focusing on direct-response advertising to enhance revenue growth amid macroeconomic uncertainties [47][48]. Theme 5: A Future of AVs & the Pathway for Mobility Networks - The rise of autonomous vehicles (AVs) is expected to reshape mobility networks, with companies like UBER and LYFT exploring partnerships to adapt to this evolving landscape [55][56]. Theme 6: The Battle for Same/Next Day Local eCommerce - Local eCommerce is experiencing growth driven by faster delivery speeds, with AMZN and UBER competing aggressively in this space [61][62]. Theme 7: The Normalization of Online Travel Demand (& Evolution of the Marketing Funnel) - The online travel sector is stabilizing post-pandemic, with growth expected to normalize, focusing on brand loyalty and optimizing marketing spend [68][72]. Theme 8: The Evolution of Interactive Entertainment Platforms - Interactive entertainment companies are diversifying their offerings, expanding into new verticals and enhancing user engagement through innovative content strategies [80][81]. Theme 9: The Transition from Mobile Computing to Spatial Computing (Over the Long-Term) - The industry is transitioning towards spatial computing, with companies investing in hardware and software developments to drive consumer adoption of AR/VR technologies [93][94]. Theme 10: Regulatory Matters & Changed Ecosystem Defaults Remains the Dominant Risk Factor to Industry - Regulatory scrutiny, particularly around antitrust issues, poses significant risks to major players like AMZN, GOOGL, and META, impacting their operational strategies [95][96].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a moderate uplift to annual investment of $30-135 billion, or 0.1%-0.4% of US GDP, over the next few years based on recent investment announcements [31][30][29]. Core Insights - Companies have announced plans to invest over $2 trillion in the US, with foreign governments pledging an additional $4.2 trillion, indicating a potential surge in US investment [3][5]. - However, the actual impact on US investment is expected to be smaller than the announced figures due to several factors, including the likelihood of some investments not materializing and the overlap with previously planned investments [3][8][30]. - A retrospective examination of similar promises during President Trump's first term indicates that approximately 80% of announced investments were realized [9][30]. - The report estimates that focusing only on specific GDP-relevant projects could yield an uplift to annual investment of $30-135 billion, with additional foreign purchases potentially adding another $50 billion to annual US GDP if they materialize [31][30]. Summary by Sections Investment Announcements - Companies have announced over $2 trillion in investments, implying a $500 billion uplift to annual investment, while foreign governments have pledged an additional $4.2 trillion [3][5]. - The report highlights that many of these announcements may not correspond to actual investment as measured in national accounts, with some companies including spending not relevant for GDP [13][14]. Realization of Announcements - Historical data from the first Trump administration shows that most announced projects were completed, although some high-profile projects fell short of their goals [9][12]. - The report notes that 69% of GS equity analysts view the recent announcements as mostly overlapping with prior plans, indicating limited incremental investment [21][24]. Economic Impact - The report concludes that while the announced investments are significant, the actual economic impact is likely to fall short of the headlines, with a more realistic estimate of $30 billion annually after accounting for overlaps and potential non-realization [30][31].