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Investment Rating - The report rates the defense and military industry as "Buy" [3] Core Viewpoints - Recent policy changes in new productivity areas such as satellite internet and low-altitude economy are positive, indicating a high certainty of long-term demand in the satellite internet sector [3][8] - The military sector has seen a rebound over six consecutive trading days, with significant attention and a two-week increase of 14.12% and 10.85%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.31 and 2.79 percentage points [3][8] - The report anticipates broad potential demand in Q4 2024 and 2025, driven by sectors like large aircraft, satellite internet, and low-altitude economy, supported by improving industry trends and policy backing [3][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on long-term growth potential and the "supply-demand" and "pattern" scarcity of key targets, while suggesting to downplay short-term order release predictions [3][9] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The military sector is experiencing a significant rebound, with core stocks nearing their valuation lows since 2020, indicating a potential for recovery [3][8] - The report highlights the importance of the fourth quarter for traditional military supply chains, with concentrated deliveries and procurement progress expected to enhance attention on the sector [3][8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a low valuation strategy, focusing on military beta recovery, and highlights key companies such as Aviation Power, AVIC Heavy Machinery, and China Power as core investment targets [9][10] - Specific companies to watch for improving order trends include AVIC Optoelectronics, Ruichuang Micro-Nano, and Guangwei Composite [9][10] Financial Projections - For Aviation Power, projected revenues for 2024 are estimated at CNY 49.76 billion, with net profits expected to reach CNY 1.66 billion [10][11] - China Power's revenue is projected to increase significantly due to its restructuring, with a focus on the shipbuilding sector [10][11] - AVIC Heavy Machinery is expected to see a profit increase, benefiting from the modernization of the defense aviation industry [11][12] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the global economic recovery is expected to benefit the military sector, with a focus on technological innovation and supply chain reforms [8][9] - The emphasis is placed on the importance of maintaining competitive advantages through technological advancements and efficient management practices [15][16]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the utility sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on undervalued green electricity and oversold thermal power, particularly in the Hong Kong market, which offers significant value [1][8]. - The utility sector exhibits strong defensive characteristics, with historical analysis indicating that it typically outperforms during rapid market rallies, except for the 2014-2015 period [1][8]. - The report suggests three key strategies: (1) short-term focus on wind and solar energy, which are currently at low price-to-book (PB) ratios of 9% and 7% since mid-2016, indicating potential for upward elasticity; (2) monitoring the upcoming quarterly reports in October, which are expected to show improved performance in hydropower and thermal power; (3) paying attention to the signing of electricity prices and auxiliary service details for thermal power, which has seen a significant adjustment of nearly 10% since July [1][8]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Performance - The report highlights the recent market rebound and the need to capitalize on undervalued green and thermal power stocks, particularly in the Hong Kong market [1][8]. - It notes that the utility sector has historically shown strong defensive attributes, with the overall index typically underperforming during market rallies, except for the 2014-2015 period [1][8]. Section 2: Policy Review - The report discusses recent policies aimed at enhancing the clean and efficient use of coal, including the establishment of a unified national electricity market registration system [25][26]. - It mentions the goal of improving coal utilization efficiency and promoting low-carbon transformations in coal power projects [25][26]. Section 3: Industry Data Tracking - The report provides insights into recent trends in coal prices, noting stabilization in domestic and international markets, with coastal power plant loads showing a decrease month-on-month but an increase year-on-year [27]. - It highlights that the price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal has fluctuated between 900 and 1050 CNY/ton recently, with a slight increase noted in late September [27].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The pig farming sector is expected to maintain strong performance, with the average national pig price in September 2024 at 18.96 CNY/kg, down 7.07% month-on-month but up 14.55% year-on-year. The fourth quarter is anticipated to be a traditional peak consumption season, which may support prices [17][18]. - The price of white feather chicken has seen a decline, with the average price in Yantai at approximately 3.58 CNY/jin, down 4.89% month-on-month. However, the price of chicken seedlings has increased by 2.60% month-on-month, indicating potential recovery in the sector [28]. - The feed and animal health sectors are experiencing a decline in raw material prices, with corn prices down 3% and fishmeal prices down 7% in September. This is expected to improve profitability in aquaculture [2][33]. Summary by Sections Market Review - In September 2024, the agricultural sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.48 percentage points, with the agricultural sector rising by 19.48% compared to the CSI 300's 20.97% [10][12]. Livestock Farming - The average profit for self-bred pigs in September was 484.84 CNY/head, down 104.56 CNY/head month-on-month but up 519.70 CNY/head year-on-year. The average profit for purchased piglets was 298.46 CNY/head, down 95.82 CNY/head month-on-month but up 394.28 CNY/head year-on-year [17][18]. Raw Materials - The average domestic corn price in September was approximately 2328 CNY/ton, down 3.03% month-on-month and down 20.06% year-on-year. The prices of wheat and soybean meal have increased [33]. Aquaculture - The price of shrimp increased by 13.33% month-on-month in September, while the prices of other aquatic products showed mixed trends due to seasonal supply fluctuations [2][33]. Pet Food - In August, the export value of packaged pet food (cats & dogs) reached 9.87 million CNY, up 2.73% month-on-month and up 33.44% year-on-year. The cumulative export value from January to August was 69.26 million CNY, up 25.09% year-on-year [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the home appliance industry [5] Core Insights - The home appliance market is experiencing significant growth driven by the "old-for-new" policy during the National Day holiday, with notable increases in sales and customer traffic across various regions [3][14] - The report highlights a robust performance in white goods, with stable ROE and high dividend advantages, suggesting potential benefits from the "old-for-new" policy in the second half of the year [4][16] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - White goods are expected to see steady growth, with recommendations for Gree Electric, Haier Smart Home (A/H), and Hisense Home Appliances (A/H). Companies benefiting from overseas brand expansion include Roborock Technology and TCL Electronics [4][16] Weekly Market Review (2024.09.23-2024.09.27) - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 15.7%, while the home appliance sector index increased by 10.4%. The black appliance index rose by 13.6%, and the white appliance index increased by 10.0% [20] Industry Dynamics - The "old-for-new" policy is driving new consumption momentum, with significant sales increases reported during the National Day holiday. For instance, in Chongqing, home appliance sales exceeded 230 million yuan due to government subsidies [3][15][33] - The report notes that the retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment turned from decline to growth in August, indicating a recovery trend in the market [33] Sales Data Overview - For the week of 2024W39 (September 16-22, 2024), offline sales of air conditioners increased by 123.5% year-on-year, while online sales rose by 64.5%. Other categories like refrigerators and washing machines also saw significant growth [22][23] Regional Performance - Various regions reported substantial increases in home appliance sales during the National Day holiday, with notable figures such as a 415% increase in sales in Hunan and a 30% increase in Sichuan [15][34]

[本报告联系人： Table_C ontacter] [Table_Page] 行业专题研究|食品饮料 2024 年 10 月 7 日 证券研究报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------|------------------------------| | [Table_Title] | 白酒行业 | | 如何看本轮白酒股价的上涨？ | | [Tabl 分析师： | 符蓉 | 分析师： | 高鸿 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号： S0260523120002 | | SAC 执证号： S0260522010001 | | | | | SFC CE.no: BUQ312 | | | 021-38003552 | | 021-38003690 | | | furong@gf.com.cn | | gfgaohong@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，符 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 8.52 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 7.58 CNY [4][9]. Core Views - The strategic partnership with JD.com has been established, with the first JD Outlet store opening at Hailan Feima Water City, aiming to explore new growth avenues. The store has seen an average daily foot traffic of over 30,000 during the National Day holiday [2]. - The second quarter performance was below expectations, with revenue and net profit for Q2 2024 declining by 5.88% and 14.42% respectively. The cautious outlook for Q3 is noted, although improvements are anticipated in Q4 due to favorable policy changes and the impact of the JD Outlet [2][3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 0.57 CNY, 0.64 CNY, and 0.76 CNY respectively, with a reasonable valuation based on a 15x PE ratio for 2024 [2][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is expected to be 22.114 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 2.73%. The net profit is projected at 2.727 billion CNY, reflecting a decline of 7.61% [3][9]. - The company’s revenue breakdown includes direct sales, franchise operations, online sales, and group purchasing, with varying growth rates and profit margins across these segments [7][8][9]. - The EBITDA for 2024 is estimated at 5.067 billion CNY, with a slight decrease from the previous year [3][9]. Revenue Projections - Direct sales are projected to generate revenues of 4.806 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 6.02% [7]. - Franchise revenue is expected to decline to 9.367 billion CNY in 2024, a decrease of 12.31% [8]. - Online sales are forecasted to grow significantly, reaching 4.887 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 50% [8][9]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for direct sales is expected to remain stable at 62.61%, while the online business is projected to have a gross margin of 48.65% [7][8]. - The net profit margin is anticipated to be around 12.5% for 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) of 14.4% [3][9].

Investment Rating - The industry rating for the metal and metal new materials sector is "Buy" [1]. Core Views - Basic Metals: Domestic demand expectations are rapidly improving, and basic metal prices are expected to continue rising. The overall price of basic metals is experiencing fluctuations upward due to a series of "stabilizing growth" policies and resilient U.S. economic performance [11]. - Steel: Steel mill profitability is stabilizing, and macroeconomic favorable policies are expected to restore demand expectations and boost the valuation of quality steel companies [13]. - Precious Metals: The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is influencing gold prices, which are likely to continue fluctuating upward [14]. - Energy Metals: Lithium prices still have room for decline, but the sector may have recovery expectations [15]. - Other Minor Metals: Prices for tungsten and molybdenum are fluctuating, with expectations for stability in rare earth, tungsten, and molybdenum prices in October [16]. Summary by Sections Basic Metals - Domestic demand expectations have improved significantly due to "stabilizing growth" policies, with copper and aluminum prices expected to rise [11][12]. - Copper supply remains tight, with social inventory at 224,000 tons as of September 30, and demand from cable enterprises is stable [11]. - Aluminum social inventory decreased to 658,000 tons, indicating a clear destocking trend [12]. Steel - Steel mill profitability rose to 18.62% in September, with a 36.71% increase in Shanghai rebar procurement [13]. - Prices for common steel and iron ore have increased, indicating a recovery in profitability for steel mills [13]. Precious Metals - U.S. inflation pressures are easing, and employment data is strong, which may influence gold prices to continue rising amid changing expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [14]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices are expected to remain under pressure due to oversupply concerns, despite recent stabilization [15]. Other Minor Metals - Rare earth prices are expected to remain high due to tight supply and demand balance, while tungsten and molybdenum prices are anticipated to stabilize [16].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The non-bank financial sector is recommended due to active trading and incremental capital inflow, with a focus on securities and insurance sectors [2] - The report highlights significant increases in Hong Kong brokerage stocks and improved trading conditions on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, which are expected to enhance brokerage profitability and valuation levels [2][13] - The insurance sector is poised for recovery, benefiting from policies aimed at stabilizing growth and improving market conditions, with a recommendation to focus on companies like China Pacific Insurance and Ping An Insurance [2][12] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Performance - As of September 30, major indices showed significant gains: Shanghai Composite Index up 8.06%, Shenzhen Component Index up 10.67%, and CSI 300 Index up 8.48% [8] - The CITIC II Securities Index rose by 10.41%, and the CITIC II Insurance Index increased by 9.89% [8] 2. Industry Dynamics and Weekly Commentary (a) Insurance - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in the asset side due to strong demand for savings products and supportive monetary policies [10][12] - The report notes that the 10-year government bond yield is at 2.15%, indicating a low interest rate environment that may support insurance profitability [10] - The report suggests that the insurance sector's valuation is recovering from historically low levels, with a focus on companies like China Life and New China Life [12] (b) Securities - The report indicates that Hong Kong brokerage stocks have seen substantial increases, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 7.59% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 10.00% as of October 4 [13][18] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has extended the time for designated trading orders, which is expected to enhance trading efficiency and investor experience [21] - The report emphasizes the potential for A-share brokerage stocks to rise, reflecting the performance of their Hong Kong counterparts [18][19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry is "Buy" for certain companies and "Hold" for others, indicating a positive outlook for select stocks while maintaining caution for others [22][23]. Core Insights - The market performance in the last five trading days of September was driven by risk appetite rather than fundamentals, particularly short-term earnings expectations [7][8]. - The computer industry is highly sensitive to risk appetite and liquidity, with key factors including the dispersion of the sector, the low added value of many companies, and the small average market capitalization leading to greater stock price volatility [7][8]. - Short-term opportunities and risks are primarily driven by trading dynamics rather than fundamentals, with the industry's performance reflecting broader market trends [8][9]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The computer industry index rose by 33.0% in the last five trading days before the holiday, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 [17]. - The performance of the computer sector is expected to be a reflection of market environment changes, whether in upward or downward trends [8]. Key Areas of Focus 1. **Financial IT**: - Stocks like Tonghuashun and Zhina Zhen have shown significant gains, with increases of 88% and 109% respectively in the last five trading days [9]. - Despite a decline in overall revenue for the first half of 2024, certain companies have demonstrated resilience in their advertising and internet service revenues [9]. 2. **Domestic AI Computing**: - The domestic AI computing supply chain is expected to stabilize post-Q3 2024, with ongoing advancements in AI chip development [10]. - The valuation of companies in this sector has seen significant increases driven by market liquidity and risk appetite, rather than fundamental factors [10]. 3. **Industrial Software**: - The industrial software sector is experiencing a long-term growth foundation, supported by increasing performance and customer recognition of domestic products [11]. - Recent government policies are expected to enhance the market environment for industrial software, promoting domestic replacements [11]. 4. **Narrow Scope of Xinchuang**: - The Xinchuang industry is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at promoting technological self-sufficiency, with key players showing signs of recovery [12]. 5. **Medical IT**: - The demand for medical IT is expected to grow continuously, driven by policy directions and internal management needs within hospitals [13]. - The sector is currently at a historical low in terms of valuation, indicating potential for recovery [13]. 6. **Smart Vehicles**: - The smart driving sector is influenced by overall vehicle sales and the penetration rate of smart technology, with expectations for recovery in sales due to supportive policies [14]. 7. **Educational Informationization**: - The education sector is seeing increased investment, with a focus on smart education technologies, although some companies are currently facing revenue declines [16]. Conclusion - The computer industry is characterized by a complex interplay of market sentiment and fundamental performance, with certain sectors and companies poised for growth while others may face challenges in the near term [8][9].