Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the coal industry, indicating that coal prices are expected to rebound above 770 CNY/ton due to recovering non-electric coal demand and seasonal peaks in June [1]. Core Insights - The coal price is anticipated to bottom out in March, with a current price of 693 CNY/ton as of March 5, 2024, and is expected to stabilize as demand recovers [2]. - Positive macroeconomic policies are expected to stimulate coal demand, with a projected fiscal deficit rate of around 4% for 2025, which is an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year [1]. - Supply constraints are expected to limit growth, with new production capacity in key regions projected to increase by only 0.6% by 2025, while imports may decline due to new regulations [3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Dynamics - The coal market is currently experiencing a balance between supply and demand, with expectations of a narrowing price fluctuation as the market stabilizes [2]. - The report highlights that the warm winter has led to weak demand, exacerbated by high levels of imports, but does not predict a severe oversupply situation [2]. Section 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Domestic supply growth is limited, and new regulations in Indonesia are expected to suppress imports, potentially leading to a year-on-year decline in import volumes [3]. - Recovery in demand is anticipated as fiscal and monetary policies are expected to boost infrastructure and housing needs, particularly after the conclusion of the Two Sessions [3]. Section 3: Inventory Levels - Current inventory levels across the supply chain are low, with traders having sold off most of their stock and power plants reducing their inventories below levels seen in the previous year [3].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the digital agent product Manus AI, indicating a shift in enterprise AI investment from cost control to value creation [1]. Core Insights - Manus AI aims to disrupt traditional workflows by utilizing a multi-agent architecture that divides tasks into planning, execution, and verification, enhancing collaboration similar to human teams [1]. - The product features a comprehensive toolset, memory of user preferences, and cloud-based asynchronous execution, enabling personalized and deep service experiences across various applications [2]. - Manus adheres to a "Less Structure More Intelligence" philosophy, emphasizing quality data and flexible frameworks, which has shown superior performance in GAIA benchmark tests compared to OpenAI and previous state-of-the-art models [2]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Investment Outlook - Manus AI's introduction is expected to drive innovation in business models, particularly in professional services, by enabling digital agents to handle complex decision-making tasks [1]. Section 2: Product Features - Manus supports 40 application scenarios, including travel planning and stock analysis, while maintaining user preference consistency to enhance user engagement [2]. Section 3: Technological Philosophy - The success of Manus's minimalist technical philosophy validates the direction of general artificial intelligence development, indicating a significant advancement in handling unstructured and complex tasks [2].

Group 1: Education Industry - The government work report emphasizes the importance of education and aims to enhance educational inclusivity through a three-year action plan for building a strong education system [30][31] - Key initiatives include gradually implementing free preschool education, expanding high school enrollment, and promoting vocational education integration [31] - Recommended stocks in the education sector include Xueda Education, Action Education, New Oriental, and others, which are expected to benefit from the government's focus on educational inclusivity [30] Group 2: Home Appliance Industry - The government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds to support consumer goods replacement programs, with 300 billion yuan allocated specifically for appliance upgrades [33][34] - The expected increase in subsidies for appliance replacement is anticipated to drive stable growth in demand for home appliances, benefiting companies with strong digital capabilities and mature channel layouts [34] - Recommended companies in the home appliance sector include Midea Group, Boss Electric, and Hisense, which are expected to gain from the favorable policies [35] Group 3: Construction Industry - The government aims to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, with a deficit rate set at 4% and plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds to support infrastructure projects [38][39] - The construction sector is expected to benefit from improved liquidity and increased funding sources due to the government's monetary policy adjustments [37] - Recommended low-valuation state-owned enterprises in the construction sector include China Communications Construction and China State Construction Engineering [40] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Industry - The report highlights the integration of AI in healthcare, significantly enhancing service efficiency and quality across various medical applications [42][43] - Companies like Aier Eye Hospital and Meinian Health are expected to benefit from advancements in AI technology that streamline clinical processes and improve patient care [42] - The focus on AI-driven healthcare solutions is anticipated to lead to cost reductions and improved operational efficiency for healthcare providers [42] Group 5: Agricultural Industry - The government emphasizes food security and the importance of maintaining arable land quality, with a focus on increasing crop yields through technology [46][47] - Leading seed companies are expected to benefit from the government's push for agricultural innovation and technology application [46] - The report outlines plans to stabilize grain planting areas while enhancing productivity through advanced agricultural practices [47]

| [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 1,527 | 1,669 | 1,939 | 2,194 | 2,461 | | (+/-)% | 3.5% | 9.3% | 16.2% | 13.1% | 12.2% | | 净利润（归母） | 379 | 451 | 545 | 640 | 733 | | (+/-)% | 26.1% | 19.1% | 20.8% | 17.5% | 14.5% | | 每股净收益（元） | 1.19 | 1.42 | 1.72 | 2.02 | 2.31 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 15.4% | 18.0% | 20.6% | 23.0% | 24.8% | | 市盈率(现价&最新股本摊薄） | 34.33 | 28.83 | 23.87 | 20.31 | 17.74 | 本报告导读： Q4 营收净利增速回升，随会员稳步增长、AI 产品迭代创新、深化一站式外贸服务 能力，看好 ...

大 类 资 产 配 置 大类资产配置 /[Table_Date] 2025.03.02 112 CalPERS 将向总组合管理模式转型 ——全球机构投资动态（20250302） 本报告导读： 此系列报告跟踪全球养老金、主权基金等长期资金机构的最新投资动态。 投资要点： [Table_Authors] 王鹤(分析师) 010-83939832 wanghe027834@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880523020003 [Table_Report] 相关报告 港股波动率上升，美债收益率曲线下移 2025.02.24 薄冰现隙：美国服务业 PMI 超预期下行 2025.02.23 小市值风格表现出色，价值风格回撤较大 2025.02.23 本周估值因子表现较差，本月基本面因子超额回 撤较大 2025.02.23 恒生科技领跑，A 股成长风格夏普比上行 2025.02.22 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大 类 大类资产配置双周报 目录 资 产 配 置 双 周 报 [Table_Summary] CalPERS 有望从战略资产配置向总组合管理模式转型。新任 CIO 提 议董事会于 ...

Group 1 - The report adjusts the tactical asset allocation view for US stocks to neutral, reflecting a marginally declining trend in the US economy under high interest rates and uncertain policies [3][7][8] - The US Services PMI for February 2025 was reported at 50.4, significantly below market expectations of 53.2 and the previous value of 52.7, marking the lowest level in nearly 17 months [6][7] - The report indicates that despite the marginal economic contraction, the overall resilience of the US economy remains, with the manufacturing PMI at 51.6, slightly above expectations [6][7] Group 2 - The report highlights that the tactical allocation view for the US dollar has also been adjusted to neutral, supported by strong investment in the US economy and global capital allocation towards dollar assets [8][10] - The domestic active asset allocation portfolio reported a return of -0.16% for the week ending February 23, 2025, with a cumulative excess return of 3.07% since inception [16][23] - The global active asset allocation portfolio achieved a return of 0.25% for the same week, with a cumulative excess return of 2.74% [23][24]

弱震荡格局下 T 合约在 60 日均线处或将得到强支撑 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) 国债期货周度跟踪 本报告导读： 近期债市转向弱震荡格局，从技术形态看，目前 T合约在 50 日均线处得到支撑，TL合约则 在 20日均线处得到支撑，可以基本确定为短期弱支撑位，下一强支撑位则分别位于 60 日均线 （ T）与 30 日均线（TL） 投资要点： 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.02.17 | | 0755-23976753 | | --- | --- | | | tangyuanmao026130@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 孙越(研究助理) | | | 021-38031033 | | | sunyue028687@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880123070142 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 板块补涨行情延续 2025.02.17 新旧生产力转换显成效与债市"资产荒"或并存 2025.02.16 关注 REITs行情独立性 2025.02.11 存单倒挂主因在需求侧，还将持续修复 ...

Group 1: Event Overview - The event is organized by Guotai Junan focusing on hardware and AI developments, scheduled for March 5, 2025, in Beijing[1] - Key sessions include discussions on AIDC architecture, advancements in large models by Alibaba and Baidu, and power and temperature control trends in AIDC[2] Group 2: Expert Profiles - Wang Shuo, an IDC expert with a PhD, has extensive research experience in future networks and has received multiple awards in the field[3] - The large model expert from Alibaba has successfully managed the entire lifecycle of large models, ensuring efficient product implementation and business transformation[4] - An AIDC expert with over 10 years in IT infrastructure has contributed to the development of over 10 new intelligent computing centers[5] Group 3: Industry Insights - The LITEON expert has over 17 years of experience in server sales management across various industries, including internet and manufacturing[6] - The VRT expert has over 20 years in the data center industry, focusing on market analysis and strategic client relationships[7] - The AI cloud service expert has extensive experience in cloud products, including IDC and CDN, and is knowledgeable about industry competition and market share[8]

本轮地方债放量下的利差复盘与 3 月发行 节奏展望 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.03.03 ━━信用策略周报 本报告导读： 过去两周地方债放量，部分省份利差有所走阔。 3 月份地方债发行节奏趋缓，新增 地方债的发行高峰将在二三季度。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 涨跌同源，静候花开 2025.03.03 存单利率或不会持续高过 MLF：与历史的三点不 同 2025.02.25 城投担保债进入存量时代 2025.02.25 风险偏好抬升，聚焦科技成长 2025.02.24 水利项目应急响应升级影响短期分红 2025.02.24 证 券 研 究 报 告 市 场 策 略 周 报 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 债 券 研 究 [Table_Authors] 王宇辰(分析师) 010-83939801 wangyuchen026137@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880523020004 [Table_Summary] 过去两周地方债放量，部分省份利差有所走阔。10Y 期地方债作为 主品种，各省利差相对稳定；15Y、20Y 和 30Y 部分省份利差有所 走阔，15Y ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a long-term tight supply in wood chips and pulp, emphasizing the importance of upstream resource layout, which may become a key differentiator in profitability [1]. Core Insights - The cash cost differentiation between hardwood and softwood pulp is significant, with Chilean softwood pulp having a cost advantage of $50-100 per ton compared to Europe, and a $20-70 advantage over South American Canada [1]. - The EBITDA profit margin for the largest hardwood producer, Suzano, is superior to its peers, indicating a stable profitability despite varying accounting standards [1]. - The report highlights that raw material, logistics, and energy layout contribute to profitability differences, with wood chips accounting for approximately 40% of cash costs [2]. Summary by Sections Supply Constraints - Long-term supply of softwood is expected to be tight due to limited availability and environmental pressures, while no large-scale new capacity for hardwood pulp is anticipated until 2026 [3]. Cost Structure - The cash cost of softwood pulp has increased from $370 per ton in 2010 to $508 per ton in 2023, with a CAGR of 2.4% for wood chips, chemicals, and labor [1]. - Hardwood pulp cash costs have decreased from $311 per ton in 2012 to $177 per ton in 2023, with a CAGR of -4% due to the appreciation of the dollar [1]. Logistics and Energy - Transportation costs from forest to mill and from mill to port are significant, with 2023 costs ranging from $500 to $1000 per ton, accounting for 10-20% of total delivery costs [2]. - Energy costs represent about 15-20% of pulp production costs, with leading overseas mills efficiently utilizing by-products to meet energy needs [2].