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转债缩量上涨,涨幅较权益偏低
Jianghai Securities· 2025-10-27 09:28
- The weekly performance of the convertible bond market indices: Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index, and China Convertible Bond Index had weekly changes of 1.557%, 1.396%, and 1.473% respectively[7] - The weekly performance of the equity market indices: Shanghai Composite Index and China Securities Index had weekly changes of 2.879% and 3.363% respectively[7] - The trading volume and value of the convertible bond market for the week were 184,327.64 million units and 30,011,742.91 million yuan, with week-on-week changes of -12.58% and -15.40% respectively[7] - The trading volume and value of the corresponding stocks for the week were 3,999,054.08 million shares and 63,737,365.90 million yuan, with week-on-week changes of -23.41% and -26.84% respectively[7] - As of October 24, 2025, the number of outstanding convertible bonds was 414, with an issuance scale of approximately 686.345 billion yuan and a remaining scale of approximately 538.707 billion yuan[10] - The median and arithmetic average conversion premium rates of the convertible bond market were approximately 27.15% and 41.72%, with week-on-week changes of -4.77% and -3.04% respectively[10] - The top five convertible bonds with the highest weekly gains were Yingliu Convertible Bond, Chenfeng Convertible Bond, Jingda Convertible Bond, Montai Convertible Bond, and Chunqiu Convertible Bond, with weekly changes of 73.08%, 27.32%, 25.11%, 24.41%, and 15.88% respectively[19][20] - The top five convertible bonds with the highest weekly losses were Huiche Convertible Bond, Yitian Convertible Bond, Jiaze Convertible Bond, Huicheng Convertible Bond, and Hengbang Convertible Bond, with weekly changes of -18.82%, -14.62%, -10.85%, -10.63%, and -9.55% respectively[19][21] - As of October 24, 2025, the number of convertible bonds priced below 100, between 100-110, 110-120, 120-130, 130-140, and above 140 were 0 (0.00%), 5 (1.22%), 52 (12.71%), 124 (30.32%), 105 (25.67%), and 123 (30.07%) respectively[35] - The median conversion premium rates for these price ranges were 0.00%, 99.95%, 71.57%, 46.47%, 21.84%, and 13.00%, with week-on-week changes of 0.00%, -3.74%, 1.52%, 19.48%, -0.48%, and 1.29% respectively[35]
金融工程定期报告
Jianghai Securities· 2025-10-27 09:15
- The report primarily focuses on tracking and analyzing the performance of broad-based indices in the A-share market, including metrics such as daily returns, moving averages, turnover rates, risk premiums, PE-TTM, dividend yields, and price-to-book ratios [1][3][4] - The daily return distribution of indices is analyzed, showing that the ChiNext Index has the largest negative skewness and kurtosis deviation, while the CSI 300 Index has the smallest negative skewness and kurtosis deviation. This reflects the concentration and extreme return tendencies of these indices [3][22][24] - The risk premium of the indices is calculated relative to the 10-year government bond yield as a risk-free rate. The ChiNext Index (97.46%) and CSI 500 (92.62%) have the highest 5-year percentile values, while the SSE 50 (77.7%) and CSI 2000 (74.92%) have relatively lower values [3][26][30] - The PE-TTM (Price-to-Earnings Trailing Twelve Months) ratios of the indices are evaluated as a valuation metric. The CSI 500 (99.01%) and CSI All Share (98.68%) have the highest 5-year percentile values, while the CSI 2000 (85.29%) and ChiNext Index (60.5%) are relatively lower. The SSE 50 and CSI 300 have reached their 1-year historical peak values [36][40][41] - Dividend yields are tracked as a measure of cash return. The ChiNext Index (66.61%) and CSI 1000 (42.15%) are at relatively high 5-year historical percentiles, while the CSI 2000 (18.43%) and CSI 500 (14.96%) are at lower levels [44][50][51] - The price-to-book ratios and the proportion of stocks trading below their book value are analyzed. The current proportion of stocks trading below book value is highest for the SSE 50 (22.0%) and lowest for the ChiNext Index (1.0%) [52][54]
民士达(920394):受蜂窝芯材交付节奏影响,公司业绩略低于预期
Jianghai Securities· 2025-10-27 09:02
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown a revenue increase of 21.8% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 343 million yuan, with a net profit of 91.17 million yuan, up 28.9% year-on-year [3] - The third quarter revenue was 106 million yuan, reflecting a 9.9% year-on-year increase, but the performance was below market expectations [3] - The company is experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth due to changes in the delivery schedule of honeycomb core materials, which impacted overall revenue growth [7] - The company maintains stable gross and net profit margins, with a gross margin of 40.4% for the first three quarters, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company is in a ramp-up phase for its new production capacity, which is expected to gradually release in the future [7] - The company is positioned as a leading domestic aramid paper manufacturer, with significant potential for domestic substitution and is actively developing a second growth curve to ensure long-term development [7] Financial Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 340.47 million yuan in 2023 to 801.96 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 24.84% [6] - Net profit is expected to increase from 81.63 million yuan in 2023 to 209.45 million yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 28.22% [6] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to rise from 12.10% in 2023 to 16.62% in 2027 [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from 0.56 yuan in 2023 to 1.43 yuan in 2027 [6] Market Data - The current stock price is 39.75 yuan, with a total share capital of 146.25 million shares [1] - The stock has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio projected at 44x for 2025, 36x for 2026, and 28x for 2027 [7]
百亚股份(003006):线下外围市场延续高增,静待线上平台恢复增长
Jianghai Securities· 2025-10-27 08:56
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.623 billion yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.80%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 245 million yuan, up 2.53% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 238 million yuan, an increase of 5.15% [6] - The company continues to optimize its product structure, with significant growth in its health product series, particularly probiotics and organic cotton products, which saw a revenue growth of 35.5% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [10] - The offline market has shown strong growth, with a 35.7% year-on-year increase in offline channel revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, while online channel revenue declined by 10.2% [10] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 54.00%, a decrease of 0.88 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 9.33%, down 0.93 percentage points year-on-year [10] - The company’s total revenue is projected to reach 3.68 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 13.07%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 323 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 12.43% [9][10] - The company’s P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 34.2, 26.7, and 20.3 respectively [11] Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a leader in the probiotics product series and is actively expanding its market presence beyond core regions, focusing on resource allocation to non-core provinces [10] - The company plans to continue enhancing brand and channel investments to improve brand awareness and drive future growth [10]
广信科技(920037):绝缘材料技术国际领先,受益电网投资提升和新能源快速发展
Jianghai Securities· 2025-10-27 08:56
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [1] Core Views - The company specializes in insulation fiber materials and has broken the foreign technology monopoly, positioning itself as a "specialized and innovative" small giant enterprise [14] - The company's main products are insulation fiber materials and their molded products, primarily used for insulation in various voltage level power transmission and transformation equipment [17] - The company has shown rapid revenue and net profit growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.76% for revenue and 143.85% for net profit from 2021 to 2024 [35] - The company benefits from increasing investment in the power grid and the rapid development of new energy, with the insulation materials market expected to exceed 200 billion yuan by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 7.8% from 2025 to 2030 [78] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was established in 2004 and has achieved significant technological advancements, including the development of ultra-high voltage insulation fiber materials that have reached international leading levels [14] - The company's revenue is primarily generated from domestic sales, with a total revenue of 3.75 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 45.89% [27] Financial Analysis - The company forecasts total revenue of 850.49 million yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 47.26% [7] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 212.13 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 82.60% [7] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to reach 29.24% in 2025, indicating strong profitability [7] Industry Development - The insulation materials market is expected to grow significantly, driven by increased investment in the power grid and the development of new energy sources [78] - The high voltage industry is projected to see continued growth, with investments in ultra-high voltage projects expected to reach 590 billion yuan from 2026 to 2030, a 31% increase compared to the previous period [59] - The report highlights the increasing demand for transformers and insulation materials due to the ongoing construction of a new energy system and the expansion of renewable energy sources [62][64]
“双11”天猫抖音美妆榜出炉,巨子生物重组I型胶原蛋白冻干纤维获批
Jianghai Securities· 2025-10-27 02:13
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The report highlights that the beauty and personal care industry has shown a relative return of -2.84% over the past month, -13.54% over the past three months, and -14.02% over the past year compared to the CSI 300 index [3] - The report notes that the newly approved recombinant type I collagen products by Juzhi Biotech are expected to enhance market competition, with various specifications available [6] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of brands like Han Shu and Proya during the "Double 11" shopping festival, indicating robust consumer demand [6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The beauty and personal care sector has experienced a relative return of -2.84% in the last month, -13.54% in the last three months, and -14.02% in the last year compared to the CSI 300 index [3] Product Developments - Juzhi Biotech's recombinant type I collagen has been approved, with product specifications ranging from 10mg to 24mg per bottle, primarily used for facial dermal filling to correct dynamic wrinkles [6] - The report mentions that the recombinant collagen market is seeing new entrants, with Juzhi Biotech and Jinbo Biotech being key players [6] Market Trends - Data from Q3 2025 shows that the GMV for the beauty category on Douyin grew by 19.69% year-on-year, with Han Shu leading with over 500 million in GMV [6] - The report indicates that Proya has consistently ranked first in the Tmall beauty category for three consecutive years, with expectations to maintain this position in 2025 [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring Juzhi Biotech's marketing strategies and sales performance for its new collagen products [6] - It recommends focusing on leading domestic skincare companies like Proya and Shanghai Jahwa, as well as other listed companies in the collagen sector [6]
A股市场快照:宽基指数每日投资动态-20251024
Jianghai Securities· 2025-10-24 11:14
证券研究报告·金融工程报告 2025 年 10 月 24 日 江海证券研究发展部 金融工程定期报告 金融工程研究组 A 股市场快照:宽基指数每日投资动态 2025.10.24 ◆市场表现:2025 年 10 月 23 日, 各宽基指数(表 1)涨跌各现,其中上证 50(0.56%) 分析师:梁俊炜 投资要点: 执业证书编号:S1410524090001 A 股市场快照:宽基指数每日投资动 A 股市场快照:宽基指数每日投资动 和沪深 300(0.3%)涨幅最大,而中证 2000(-0.22%)和中证 1000(-0.06%)下跌。 当年涨跌情况,创业板指(42.99%)涨幅最大,其次是中证 2000(29.71%)和中 证 500(24.75%),中证全指(21.52%)和沪深 300(17.06%)涨幅扩大,而上证 50(12.74%)涨幅最小。另外,上证 50、沪深 300、中证 1000 和中证全指连续三 日连阳,中证 2000 连续四日连阳。 ◆均线比较:所有跟踪指数仍在 5 日均线之上,中证全指突破 10 日均线。上证 50 达到近 250 日高位。 ◆资金占比与换手:2025 年 10 月 23 日 ...
A股市场快照:宽基指数每日投资动态-20251023
Jianghai Securities· 2025-10-23 08:57
- The report provides a snapshot of the performance of broad-based indices in the A-share market, highlighting daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes in index returns, with the highest annual return observed for the ChiNext Index at 42.85%[10][11][13] - It compares indices against their moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA20, MA60, MA120, MA250) and their 250-day high and low levels, showing that all indices remain above their 5-day moving averages, except the CSI 2000, which fell below its 10-day moving average[13][14] - The turnover rate and trading volume share are analyzed, with CSI 2000 having the highest turnover rate at 3.56, while the CSI 300 accounts for the largest trading volume share at 26.89%[16][17] - Daily return distributions are examined, revealing that the ChiNext Index has the largest negative skewness and kurtosis deviation, while the CSI 300 has the smallest[23][24] - Risk premium analysis is conducted using the 10-year government bond yield as the risk-free rate, showing that the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 have higher volatility in risk premiums compared to other indices[26][27][30] - PE-TTM ratios are evaluated as valuation metrics, with CSI 500 and CSI All Index showing the highest 5-year percentile values at 98.18% and 97.44%, respectively, while the ChiNext Index has the lowest at 58.51%[38][41][42] - Dividend yield analysis indicates that the ChiNext Index and CSI 1000 have the highest 5-year historical percentile values at 69.42% and 46.2%, respectively, while CSI 2000 and CSI 500 have the lowest at 20.25% and 16.28%[46][51][52] - The report also tracks the percentage of stocks trading below their net asset value (break-net ratio), with the highest ratio observed for the SSE 50 at 18.0% and the lowest for the ChiNext Index at 1.0%[53]
A股市场快照:宽基指数每日投资动态-20251021
Jianghai Securities· 2025-10-21 08:30
- The report provides a snapshot of the performance of broad-based indices in the A-share market, highlighting that all indices experienced an increase on October 20, 2025, with the ChiNext Index (1.98%) and CSI 2000 (1.43%) showing the largest daily gains[1][2][10] - The ChiNext Index achieved the highest annual growth rate of 39.78%, followed by CSI 2000 (28.01%) and CSI 500 (23.47%), while the SSE 50 recorded the smallest annual growth rate of 10.81%[10][11] - The ChiNext Index broke above its 5-day moving average, while other indices remained below their 5-day and 10-day moving averages, with all indices being more than 1.5% away from their 250-day highs[13][14] - The turnover rate of indices on October 20, 2025, was led by CSI 2000 (3.21), followed by CSI 1000 (2.25) and ChiNext Index (2.07), while SSE 50 had the lowest turnover rate at 0.31[16][17] - The distribution of daily returns showed that the ChiNext Index had the largest negative skewness and kurtosis deviation, while CSI 1000 had the smallest negative skewness and kurtosis deviation[23][24] - Risk premium analysis revealed that the ChiNext Index (88.81%) and CSI 2000 (85.08%) had relatively high 5-year percentile values, while CSI 1000 (72.7%) and SSE 50 (62.22%) had lower values[28][30] - PE-TTM analysis indicated that CSI 500 (98.26%) and CSI All Index (95.62%) had high 5-year percentile values, while CSI 2000 (82.89%) and ChiNext Index (58.02%) had lower values[39][41] - Dividend yield analysis showed that the ChiNext Index (71.07%) and CSI 1000 (50.66%) were at relatively high 5-year historical percentile values, while CSI 2000 (24.13%) and CSI 500 (16.61%) were at lower values[50][51] - Current net break rates for indices were reported as follows: SSE 50 (20.0%), CSI 300 (15.67%), CSI 500 (11.6%), CSI 1000 (7.4%), CSI 2000 (3.3%), ChiNext Index (1.0%), and CSI All Index (5.99%)[52][54]
豪声电子(920701):首次覆盖:集研发及制造为一体的专业电声企业,下游客户较优质
Jianghai Securities· 2025-10-21 07:58
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company for the first time, with a current price of 19.38 yuan [1][6]. Core Insights - The company, Zhejiang Haosheng Electronics Technology Co., Ltd., specializes in the research, development, production, and sales of micro-acoustic components and audio products, having established itself as a significant player in the industry with strong R&D capabilities [6][15]. - The company's revenue has shown a growth trend, increasing from 463 million yuan in 2019 to an expected 800 million yuan in 2024, with a five-year CAGR of 11.56% [6][23]. - The global consumer electronics market is projected to grow from 788.23 billion USD in 2024 to 1,073.77 billion USD by 2032, driven by rising demand for smart and interconnected devices [52][53]. Financial Data Summary - Total shares outstanding: 137.20 million [2] - A-share circulation ratio: 73.04% [2] - Revenue forecast for 2023A to 2027E shows a growth from 640.82 million yuan to 1,235.06 million yuan, with growth rates of -4.24%, 24.76%, 12.88%, 15.72%, and 18.26% respectively [5][67]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline significantly in 2025E to 71.83 million yuan, down from 171.50 million yuan in 2024A, reflecting a -58.11% growth rate [5][67]. - The company’s gross margin has been relatively stable, with a slight decline in 2023 due to market conditions, but is expected to recover in 2025 [27][28]. Business Overview - The company focuses on micro-acoustic components, which accounted for 83.69% of its revenue in 2024, and audio products, which are used in various consumer electronics [30][36]. - The company has established long-term relationships with notable clients, including OPPO, VIVO, and TCL, enhancing its market position [63][64]. - The company is positioned in the midstream of the supply chain, benefiting from a complete domestic industrial chain for consumer electronics [64][66]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 902 million yuan, 1,044 million yuan, and 1,235 million yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 12.88%, 15.72%, and 18.26% [67]. - The average PE ratios for comparable companies are projected at 40.05, 30.87, and 24.01 for 2025-2027, while the company’s expected PE ratios are 36.88, 29.58, and 24.28 [70].