Core Viewpoints - The mechanical industry is expected to embrace "technology + going global" as its dual main lines in 2026, focusing on high elasticity growth opportunities and performance certainty from overseas expansion [13][9][7] 2025 Review Market Performance - In 2025, the mechanical sector achieved a 41% increase, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 18%, ranking fifth among A-share sub-industries [6][16] - The sub-sectors that performed well included PCB equipment (+252%), 3C equipment (+129%), controllable nuclear fusion (+119%), data centers (+112%), and humanoid robots (+85%) [20][6] Demand Side - Domestic demand showed signs of bottoming out, with a marginal improvement towards the end of 2025, while external demand began to recover positively [31][35] - The manufacturing PMI in December 2025 rebounded to 50.1, indicating a return to expansion territory, driven by large enterprises and high-tech manufacturing [32][35] Cost Side - The cost structure showed a continuous improvement trend, with PPI declining by 2.6% year-on-year in 2025, reflecting insufficient industrial demand [31][33] 2026 Outlook Macro Perspective - The macro narrative for the next five years is centered around "AI commercialization + global re-industrialization," with expectations of a cyclical recovery driven by proactive fiscal policies [6][7] Mid-level Perspective - Technology - The technology sector is expected to see explosive growth, with key areas including data centers, PCB equipment, semiconductor equipment, humanoid robots, and commercial aerospace [7][9] Mid-level Perspective - Going Global - The overseas production capacity is anticipated to enter a release phase in 2026, with significant revenue and profit growth expected for companies in the machinery and equipment sectors [7][8] Investment Recommendations - Investment strategies should focus on high-certainty directions with strong industry trends and competitive advantages, prioritizing stock selection based on industry trends, competitive positioning, and valuation [7][8] - Long-term investments should consider companies with platform capabilities that offer sustainable value [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the 3D printing industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [8]. Core Insights - The global consumer-grade 3D printing industry is entering a phase of accelerated adoption, with rapid market growth anticipated. The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities within the industry chain, particularly companies related to the leading player, Tuozhu [1]. - The demand for consumer-grade 3D printing is expected to grow rapidly, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence and printing performance. The market size is projected to reach USD 4.1 billion in 2024 and grow to USD 16.9 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 26.6% [6]. - The supply side shows that the global 3D printer market share is increasingly concentrated among leading Chinese companies, with Tuozhu expected to capture approximately 29% of the market share in 2024 [6]. Industry Overview - The 3D printing industry encompasses various segments, including upstream raw materials, hardware, and auxiliary software, as well as downstream applications in aerospace, automotive, healthcare, rail transportation, cultural creativity, and construction [6]. - The report highlights key players in the industry, including: - **Sikan Technology**: A leading domestic 3D scanner company that has signed a framework agreement with Tuozhu to jointly design and develop consumer-grade 3D scanners [6]. - **Jinchengzi**: A leader in laser processing control systems, focusing on self-developed industrial software and control systems, and a major provider of automation control components for 3D printing equipment [6]. - **Jieput**: Provides continuous fiber lasers and related optical modules to midstream manufacturers, enhancing the speed and precision of 3D printing [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry based on expected performance relative to the market benchmark [5]. Core Insights - Recent valuation recovery in real estate stocks reflects a combination of oversold conditions relative to the CSI 300 index, changes in fundamental expectations, and policy anticipations [1][3]. - The upward potential for real estate stock prices requires further support from either fundamental performance or policy implementation, with key drivers including better-than-expected transaction volumes and significant policy announcements [12][14]. - The market is currently divided between investors with optimistic views on fundamentals and those speculating on policy changes, which may lead to conflicting strategies [10]. Summary by Sections Recent Valuation Recovery - The recent increase in real estate stock prices is attributed to a recovery from oversold conditions and shifts in market sentiment regarding fundamentals and policies [1]. - Data from January 1 to February 5 shows a year-on-year decline in new home transactions by 6% and an increase in second-hand home transactions by 31%, although adjusted lunar year comparisons indicate a more significant decline [3]. Conditions for Further Price Increases - The gap between the real estate index and the CSI 300 has narrowed significantly, suggesting that without further catalysts, the potential for excess returns in the real estate sector may diminish [12]. - Future price increases will depend on exceeding expectations in fundamental performance, such as increased transaction volumes and favorable policy developments [14]. Policy Directions and Drivers - Key areas of policy focus include changes in inventory levels, loan continuation methods post "Financial 16," and the outcomes of specific corporate financing events [15]. - Potential policy measures may involve lowering mortgage rates and implementing inventory reduction strategies to stabilize housing prices [16][18]. Market Dynamics and Stock Selection - The current market trend favors companies with higher sales growth and land acquisition rates, indicating a preference for "winning" companies based on market momentum [22]. - If supportive policies are enacted, the focus may shift from "winning" companies to those with attractive valuations, while also considering companies with strong operational momentum [24]. - Specific companies to watch include those with stable performance and high dividend yields, as well as those benefiting from improvements in the housing market [25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong recommendation for companies such as 帝科股份 (Dike Co., Ltd.) and 聚和材料 (Juhua Materials) [3][4] - ST 京机 (ST Jingji) and 德邦科技 (Debang Technology) are not rated [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the potential application of the tile structure in space photovoltaic systems, which can reduce the risk of damage to solar cells and improve power output per unit area [1][7] - The use of tile structures is expected to create new demand scenarios for conductive adhesives and related equipment, benefiting companies involved in these technologies [1][7] Industry Overview - The industry consists of 308 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 792.4 billion and a circulating market value of 693.8 billion [4] - The industry has shown strong performance with absolute returns of 63.1% over 12 months [6] Key Companies - **ST 京机 (ST Jingji)**: A leader in automated manufacturing technology for photovoltaic modules, with a significant market share and established partnerships in tile technology [8] - **帝科股份 (Dike Co., Ltd.)**: A leading company in photovoltaic silver paste, with a strong market position and potential for growth in space photovoltaic applications [9] - **德邦科技 (Debang Technology)**: A core supplier of conductive adhesives for tile photovoltaic cells, with a strong competitive advantage [10] - **聚和材料 (Juhua Materials)**: A leading company in photovoltaic silver paste, developing copper paste products and addressing domestic supply chain issues [11] - **奥特维 (Aotewi)**: A prominent manufacturer of photovoltaic equipment, with deep reserves in tile technology and a comprehensive solution for vacuum process equipment [12]

Group 1: Core Insights - In January, the year-on-year increase in CPI narrowed to 0.2%, while the year-on-year decline in PPI narrowed to -1.4%, indicating a recovery in certain sectors driven by supply-side reforms and improved downstream demand [1][13][25] - The report recommends focusing on sectors with improved supply constraints and price recovery, including non-ferrous metals, electrical equipment, chemical fibers, construction materials, and machinery [2][25] Group 2: Information Technology Sector - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index increased, while the DXI Index decreased, indicating mixed performance in the semiconductor sector [2][27] - In December, global semiconductor sales saw a year-on-year increase, and in January, most Taiwanese electronic manufacturers reported improved revenues [2][27] Group 3: Midstream Manufacturing - In January, sales of various excavators and loaders saw a year-on-year increase, while automotive production and sales showed a rolling three-month year-on-year decline [2][26] - The report highlights an increase in cargo throughput and container throughput at Chinese ports, indicating a positive trend in logistics [2][26] Group 4: Consumer Demand - The prices of fresh milk remained stable, while sugar prices declined; pork prices and chicken seed prices also decreased [3][25] - The report notes a decrease in box office revenue averages, while movie ticket prices increased, reflecting a mixed recovery in the entertainment sector [3][25] Group 5: Resource Sector Tracking - The report indicates a decline in the ten-day average transaction volume of construction steel, while industrial metal prices mostly increased, with copper, tin, and nickel prices rising [6][26] - Brent crude oil prices increased, while the chemical product price index showed a downward trend, with most chemical prices declining [6][26] Group 6: Financial and Real Estate Sector - The report notes a decrease in land transaction premium rates and a decline in the area of commercial housing transactions, indicating challenges in the real estate market [6][26] - The A-share turnover rate and daily transaction volume also decreased, reflecting a slowdown in market activity [6][26] Group 7: Public Utilities - The ex-factory price of natural gas in China decreased, along with a decline in UK natural gas futures prices [6][26]

Group 1: PPI Trends and Influences - Domestic PPI has been in a downward trend from 2022 to 2025, primarily due to insufficient domestic demand, with real estate investment contributing over 60% to the decline[6] - The core logic behind the PPI decline is not merely supply imbalance but rather weak domestic demand, particularly in the real estate sector[6] - The PPI is expected to turn positive in Q2 2026, with significant contributions from rising commodity prices, particularly iron ore, crude oil, coal, copper, silicon, and lithium carbonate[51] Group 2: Commodity Price Dynamics - Since the second half of 2025, international and domestic commodity prices have begun a significant upward trend, driven by a depreciating dollar and increased structural demand from sectors like AI and renewable energy[2] - Key industrial metals such as copper and aluminum have seen price increases of 18.51% and 45.78% respectively since early 2025, while lithium carbonate prices surged by 93%[27] - The financial environment for commodities has improved due to a weakening dollar, which historically correlates with rising commodity prices[34] Group 3: Sector Contributions to PPI - The contribution of various sectors to PPI has shifted, with energy, resources, and high-end manufacturing gaining pricing power, while traditional real estate has diminished[1] - Eight key industries, including non-ferrous metallurgy and chemical manufacturing, now account for approximately 70% of the overall PPI pricing influence[14] - In the latter half of 2025, the month-on-month PPI growth was driven significantly by non-ferrous metallurgy, contributing 15.40% to the increase[15]

CPI Analysis - In January 2026, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.2% year-on-year, significantly dropping due to the Spring Festival timing effect[2] - Food prices turned negative year-on-year at -0.7%, a decline of 1.8 percentage points, influenced by last year's high base effect[2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, recorded a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but reached a six-month high of 0.3% month-on-month[2] PPI Insights - The PPI in January 2026 decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%[2] - Key industries showed price increases, such as photovoltaic equipment manufacturing up 1.9% and computer manufacturing up 0.5% month-on-month[2] - Energy-related industries continued to see price declines, with oil and gas extraction prices down 16.7% and coal mining down 9.8%[2] Future Projections - February 2026 CPI is expected to rise by 1.3% year-on-year, potentially the highest since February 2023, driven by the Spring Festival demand shift[2] - The anticipated month-on-month CPI increase for February is around 0.9%, with new price factors contributing 1.1%[2] - The PPI is projected to turn positive in the second quarter of 2026, reflecting improved industrial price conditions and a gradual recovery of economic momentum[2] Risk Considerations - There is a risk that domestic policy effects may not meet expectations, which could impact inflation and economic recovery[2]

证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2026 年 02 月 11 日 AI 驱动 DRAM 与逻辑资本开支高增，中国投资重心向逻辑芯片切换 分业务：1）半导体生产设备部门：营收 3851 亿日元，同比-24.6%/环比-15.4%， 其中 DRAM/NVM/非存储芯片（逻辑、代工、其他）营收分别为 1386/308/2157 亿日元，占比 36%/8%/56%，环比+9pcts/-6pcts/-3pcts；2）售后服务业务：营 收 1616 亿日元，同比+14.2%/环比+0.8%，主要系客户稼动率提高，备件业务 表现坚挺，且继第二季度后，改造项目依然维持高水平。分地区：1）中国大陆 地区：收入 1755 亿日元，同比-37.2%/环比-30.9%，占比 31.8%/环比-8pcts； 2）中国台湾地区：收入 1119 亿日元，同比-6.2%/环比-6.5%，占比 20.3%/环 比+1pct；3）韩国：收入 1497 亿日元，同比+30.7%/环比+13%，占比 27.1%/ 环比+6pcts；4）日本：收入 393 亿日元，同比-13.2%/环比-25.7%，占比 7.1%/ 环比-1pct；5）北美地区：收 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2026 年 2 月 11 日 冲击高峰已过，恒科触底反弹 ——港股 2 月策略月报 近期恒生科技走势较弱，我们坚定认为这是一次剧烈的流动性冲击，港股科技 的基本面与做多逻辑没有发生改变。当前海外流动性冲击高峰已过，"buy the dip"是有效策略，并且港股科技相对于 A 股科技的折价接近历史最高水平，或 将迎来触底反弹。往后看去，我们建议逢低买入、持股过节，细分方向上推荐 科技（AI 与互联网）、非银（保险）与红利。 ❑ 配置策略：科技（AI 与互联网、高端制造），非银（保险），红利 ❑ 风险提示：1）美联储货币政策转向；2）流动性大幅波动；3）黑天鹅事件。 专题报告 相关报告 3、《当前时点坚定看好恒生科 技的六大理由——港股系列研 究报告（3）》 张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 涂婧清 S1090520030001 tujingqing@cmschina.com.cn 王德健 研究助理 wangdejian@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 港股 2 月核心观点。近期以恒生科技为代表的港 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2026 年 2 月 11 日 融资资金加速流出，资金面边际好转 ——金融市场流动性与监管动态周报（0211） 3. 《春节前后资金流入的特征如 何？——金融市场流动性与监管 动态周报（0203）》 | 招商 A 股流动性指数 | | | --- | --- | | 流动性指标 | 数值/金额（亿元） | | 资金供给 | | | 公募基金发行 | 100.78↓ | | ETF 净申购 | -60.80↑ | | 融资净买入 | -515.96↓ | | 资金需求 | | | 限售解禁 | 1019.81↑ | | IPO 融资 | 13.99↓ | | 净减持金额 | 66.58↓ | | 计划减持金额 | 128.75↓ | | 活跃度 | | | A 股周度日均成交额 | 24066.54↓ | | 二级市场可跟踪资金供需持续净流出 | | 张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 涂婧清 S1090520030001 tujingqing@cmschina.com.cn 田登位 S1090524080002 tiandengw ...