证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 10 月 31 日 金宏气体（688106.SH） 25Q3 业绩承压，现场制气业务持续推进 事件：公司发布 2025 年三季报，报告期内公司实现收入 20.31 亿元，同比增长 9.33%，归母净利润 1.16 亿元，同比下降 44.90%；其中三季度单季实现收入 7.17 亿元，同比增长 14.59%，归母净利润 0.34 亿元，同比下降 33.00%，环 比下降 11.60%，扣非归母净利润 0.32 亿元，同比下降 30.43%，环比增长 15.08%。 风险提示：主要原材料价格上涨、产品价格波动、行业竞争加剧的风险。 财务数据与估值 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 482 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 482 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 9.8 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 9.8 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 6.5 | | ROE（TTM） | 3.4 | | 资产负债率 | 57.1% | | 主要股东 | 金向华 | | 主要股东持股比例 | 25.85% | 股价表现 /h，变更后测算合同金额约 % ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company reported its Q3 2025 results, which met expectations, with a slight decline in gross margin but continuous improvement in expense ratios. Sufficient inventory levels are established for sustainable growth. The company is accelerating the implementation of "AI+" across various sectors, including TMT and small-cap/computer industries [1][7]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 120.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.85%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.48 billion yuan, up 15.35% year-on-year [7]. - The company is focusing on innovation in computing power, algorithms, data, and interconnect technology to enhance the application of "AI+" [7]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 1362.29 billion yuan, 1642.92 billion yuan, and 2017.51 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 26.18 billion yuan, 30.15 billion yuan, and 37.81 billion yuan [7][8]. - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters was 4.91%, a decrease of 1.79 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratios for sales, management, and R&D showed improvements [7]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 82.54 billion yuan in 2025 to 120.20 billion yuan by 2027, with a debt ratio of 72.4% in 2025 [15][17]. Stock Performance - The current stock price is 69.37 yuan, with a market capitalization of 102.1 billion yuan [4][7]. - The stock has shown a performance of -2% over the past month, 48% over six months, and 63% over the past year [6].

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 10 月 31 日 "十五五"：量变到质变的供给侧兼顾需求平衡 ——"十五五"规划建议解读 事件：10 月 28 日，新华社受权发布《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展 第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简称为"十五五"）。 点评报告 相关报告 1、《鲍威尔为 12 月降息泼冷 水——10 月美联储议息会议点 评》2025-10-30 2、《企业盈利加速回升——— 2025 年 9 月工业企业利润分 析》2025-10-27 3、《12 月降息预期加码——美 国 9 月 CPI 点评》2025-10-25 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 战略定位与形势判断："十五五"是基本实现社会主义现代化"夯实基 础、全面发力"的"关键蓝图"，具有承前启后的重要地位，而"十四 五"更侧重全面建成小康社会后开启现代化新征程的起步期。"十五五" 时期我国发展处于战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多的定 调比以往更加严峻，更加突出风险和不确定性，比如新增了"大国博弈激 烈复杂""变乱交织 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. [1][4] Core Views - The company's Q3 2025 revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 1.70% and 3.35% year-on-year, respectively, which aligns with expectations. The performance was impacted by a constrained consumer environment, competitive pricing strategies, and a high base effect from the previous year. However, Yili has managed to maintain its market share in liquid milk, while other business segments performed well, leading to continuous improvement in net profit margins. The overall trend remains positive [1][4] - Looking ahead to 2026, milk prices are expected to rise moderately, which could improve supply and demand dynamics. The report highlights the company's competitive advantages and resilience in performance. Additionally, Yili has initiated a mid-term dividend this year, with expectations to continue a high dividend strategy, providing substantial returns to shareholders. Future focus areas include the recovery of liquid milk, performance improvements under balanced supply and demand, and new growth drivers from deep processing, health products, and overseas markets. The projected EPS for 2025 and 2026 is 1.76 and 1.94 yuan, respectively, with a corresponding valuation of 15.5X for 2025 [1][4] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, Yili's total revenue was 28.63 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.23 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.70% and 3.35%, respectively. The company reported a cash collection of 32.97 billion yuan, down 3.09% year-on-year, and operating cash flow of 6.44 billion yuan, down 24.7% year-on-year. The mid-term dividend amounted to 3.04 billion yuan, representing 29.12% of the profit for the first three quarters [1][3][4] - In terms of product categories, liquid milk saw a decline of 8.8% year-on-year, primarily due to weak demand and intensified competition. Conversely, milk powder and dairy products grew by 12.6%, with both infant and adult formulas expected to achieve double-digit growth throughout the year. Ice cream sales increased by 17.4%, although its contribution to overall revenue was limited due to the end of the peak season. Other products, including new water products, saw a significant increase of 219.4% [1][3][4] - The company's gross margin for Q3 was 33.92%, a decrease of 1.13 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to a high base from the previous year and a decline in the gross margin of liquid milk. The net profit margin for Q3 was 11.27%, down 0.19 percentage points year-on-year [1][3][4] Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued pressure on revenue in Q4 due to the impact of the Spring Festival timing, but expects improvements in internal profit margins. The overall industry supply-demand balance is projected to improve next year, with a focus on marginal demand recovery leading to sustained performance enhancements [1][4]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 10 月 31 日 中信建投（601066.SH） ❑ 收费类业务：经纪反弹、投行修复。 （1）市场向好、经纪反弹。25Q3 经纪收入 58 亿，同比+54%；单三季度经 纪收入 24 亿，同比+97%，环比+50%。截至 25Q3，代理买卖证券款为 1598 亿，较年初+22%。对比看，全市场口径 25Q3 日均股基成交额同比+110%， 单三季度日均股基成交同比+210%、环比+67%，预计公司经纪费率略有承压。 （2）投行修复，项目储备充足。25Q3 投行收入 18 亿，同比+23%；单三季 度投行收入 7.2 亿，同比+46%，环比-5%。按发行日计，25Q3 A 股 IPO 募 集资金 98 亿，同比+125%，市占率 13.1%，同比+3.5pct，行业排名由第 3 下滑至第 4；再融资募集资金 750 亿，同比+854%，市占率 9.5%，同比+4.1pct， 行业排名由第 7 上升至第 4；债券承销规模为 12580 亿，同比+9%，市占率 10.3%，同比-1.0pct，行业排名维持第 2；港股股权承销规模为 115 亿港元， 同比增长 106 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 10 月 31 日 宝立食品（603170.SH） B 端表现稳健，C 端增长亮眼 消费品/食品饮料 25Q3 收入/归母净利润分别同比+14.60%/+15.71%，业绩略超预期。今年整体 餐饮需求平淡下，公司不断强化与大客户合作，订单上新并继续拓展新渠道， 整体表现优于行业。C 端空刻意面同样实现复苏增长。26 年看，期待餐饮需求 进一步复苏，公司不断与新客户合作，带来超预期增长。同时建议更多关注 C 端 渠道拓展，从线上延伸到线下，打开成长天花板。我们预计 25-26 年公司 eps 分别为 0.65 元、0.74 元，对应 25 年估值 22X，维持"增持"评级。 增持（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：14.66 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 400 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 400 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 5.9 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 5.9 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 3.5 | | ROE（TTM） | 17.8 | | 资产负债率 | 28.4% | | 主要股东 杭州臻品致信 ...

❑ 风险提示：下游晶圆厂扩产不及预期，晶圆厂产能利用率下滑的风险，新品 研发不及预期，行业竞争加剧的风险。 证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 10 月 31 日 北方华创（002371.SZ） 25Q3 收入利润同比稳健增长，平台型优势不断增强 TMT 及中小盘/电子 北方华创发布 2025 三季报，25Q3 收入 111.6 亿元，同比+38.3%/环比+40.6%； 归母净利润 19.22 亿元，同比+14.6%/环比+18%。公司在手订单充沛，平台型 优势不断增强，未来收入有望延续健康成长态势。维持"增持"投资评级。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 22079 | 29838 | 39120 | 48756 | 59410 | | 同比增长 | 50% | 35% | 31% | 25% | 22% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 4448 | 6527 | 8628 | 11396 | 14580 | | 同 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Tianwei Foods (603317.SH) with an expected EPS of 0.57 CNY and 0.66 CNY for 2025 and 2026 respectively, corresponding to a valuation of 20X for 2025 [1][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 13.79% and a net profit growth of 8.93% year-on-year for Q3 2025, exceeding expectations. The internal business continues to improve, and the growth trend for the acquired brands, including Shicui and Jiadian Zhiwei, remains strong [1][6]. - Despite potential revenue growth slowing down in Q4 due to high base pressure, overall profitability is expected to improve due to cost benefits and expense optimization [1][6]. - The company is committed to maintaining high dividends, with expected dividends over the next three years likely to remain at a high level [1][6]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Tianwei Foods achieved a revenue of 1.02 billion CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 13.79%, and a net profit of 202 million CNY, up 8.93% year-on-year. The cash collection for Q3 was 1.142 billion CNY, reflecting a 13.88% increase [1][6]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 40.46%, an increase of 1.63 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in raw material costs [1][6]. - The company’s total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 2.411 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.98%, while the net profit was 392 million CNY, down 9.30% year-on-year [1][6]. Business Segmentation - In Q3 2025, the hot pot seasoning business saw a revenue increase of 24.96%, driven by new product launches and contributions from acquisitions. The recipe-based seasoning revenue grew by 14.95%, with Shicui continuing its rapid growth [1][6]. - Online sales channels experienced a significant growth of 60.56% year-on-year, while offline channels improved by 4.47% compared to the first half of the year [1][6]. - The company has expanded its product line by acquiring a 55% stake in Shandong Yipin Weixiang, entering the compound seasoning market [1][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [3] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance was under pressure due to external factors, with revenue and net profit declining by 15.9% and 63.2% year-on-year, respectively. However, inventory reduction is expected to approach completion by the end of 2025, and the company is focusing on product development and channel expansion, particularly in the low-end and e-commerce segments, which are expected to support a recovery in performance [1][6][7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.7 billion yuan and a net profit of 470 million yuan, representing year-on-year declines of 17.0% and 29.4%, respectively [6] - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.0 billion yuan and a net profit of 30 million yuan, with cash receipts of 920 million yuan, reflecting a 19.4% decline year-on-year [6][7] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 62.1%, with a net profit margin of 2.9%, both showing slight declines compared to the previous year [6][7] Product and Channel Performance - The company experienced a deeper decline in mid-to-high-end liquor sales, while low-end liquor sales showed relative strength, with revenue from low-end products increasing by 17.8% year-on-year [6] - E-commerce sales continued to thrive, with a year-on-year increase of 71.4% in Q3 2025, indicating a positive trend in this channel [6] - The company is expected to continue expanding its product lines and enhancing its presence in rural banquet markets, which may gradually yield positive results [1][6] Financial Projections - The company has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 to 1.52 yuan, with projections of 1.94 yuan for 2026 and 2.39 yuan for 2027 [1][6] - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at 5.068 billion yuan, with a forecasted decline of 5% year-on-year, followed by modest growth in subsequent years [2][14]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 10 月 31 日 国泰海通（601211.SH） 总资产破 2 万亿，收费类业务稳健，用表常态化在途 总量研究/非银行金融 25Q3 公司实现营业收入 459 亿，同比+102%；扣非净利润 163 亿，同比+80%。 年化后 ROE 为 10.8%，同比+2.7pct；经营杠杆为 4.77 倍、延续提升态势。合 并后业务调整节奏超过预期。 注： 24Q3 数据为原国泰君安财务数据、故点评中同比增速不具可比性。 基础数据 ❑ 总体概览：总资产破 2 万亿，收费类业务稳健，用表常态化在途。25Q3 公 司实现营业收入 459 亿，同比+102%；归母净利润 221 亿，同比+132%；扣 非净利润 163 亿，同比+80%。单三季度看，25Q3 营业收入 220 亿，同比 +136%，环比+82%；归母净利润 63 亿，同比+41%，环比+81%；扣非净利 润 90 亿，同比+102%，环比+126%。截至 25Q3，总资产突破 2 万亿，环比 +11%；归母净资产 3241 亿，环比+1%。年化后 ROE 为 10.8%，同比+2.7pct； 经营杠杆为 4.7 ...