证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2026 年 2 月 11 日 冲击高峰已过，恒科触底反弹 ——港股 2 月策略月报 近期恒生科技走势较弱，我们坚定认为这是一次剧烈的流动性冲击，港股科技 的基本面与做多逻辑没有发生改变。当前海外流动性冲击高峰已过，"buy the dip"是有效策略，并且港股科技相对于 A 股科技的折价接近历史最高水平，或 将迎来触底反弹。往后看去，我们建议逢低买入、持股过节，细分方向上推荐 科技（AI 与互联网）、非银（保险）与红利。 ❑ 配置策略：科技（AI 与互联网、高端制造），非银（保险），红利 ❑ 风险提示：1）美联储货币政策转向；2）流动性大幅波动；3）黑天鹅事件。 专题报告 相关报告 3、《当前时点坚定看好恒生科 技的六大理由——港股系列研 究报告（3）》 张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 涂婧清 S1090520030001 tujingqing@cmschina.com.cn 王德健 研究助理 wangdejian@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 港股 2 月核心观点。近期以恒生科技为代表的港 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2026 年 2 月 11 日 融资资金加速流出，资金面边际好转 ——金融市场流动性与监管动态周报（0211） 3. 《春节前后资金流入的特征如 何？——金融市场流动性与监管 动态周报（0203）》 | 招商 A 股流动性指数 | | | --- | --- | | 流动性指标 | 数值/金额（亿元） | | 资金供给 | | | 公募基金发行 | 100.78↓ | | ETF 净申购 | -60.80↑ | | 融资净买入 | -515.96↓ | | 资金需求 | | | 限售解禁 | 1019.81↑ | | IPO 融资 | 13.99↓ | | 净减持金额 | 66.58↓ | | 计划减持金额 | 128.75↓ | | 活跃度 | | | A 股周度日均成交额 | 24066.54↓ | | 二级市场可跟踪资金供需持续净流出 | | 张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 涂婧清 S1090520030001 tujingqing@cmschina.com.cn 田登位 S1090524080002 tiandengw ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for key companies in the industry, specifically Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Gujing Gongjiu, while suggesting an increase in holdings for Yingjia Gongjiu [8][28]. Core Insights - The overall sales decline in the industry before the Spring Festival aligns with expectations, with Moutai showing leading performance. The industry is experiencing a double-digit sales decline, but demand is gradually recovering as the Spring Festival approaches. The pressure on channels is easing, and confidence in the industry is expected to improve [1][12]. - Moutai's sales volume and price have exceeded expectations, with a significant increase in demand from traditional channels. The report anticipates a net increase of over 2,000 tons in January [1][12]. - The report highlights a clear differentiation among brands, with Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu outperforming the industry, while other brands are experiencing varying degrees of decline. The next high-end price segment is under significant pressure [1][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Regional Sales Feedback - The report summarizes feedback from various regions, indicating that the overall sales decline is in line with expectations. Moutai's performance is notably strong, with double-digit growth in sales volume. Other brands, such as Wuliangye, show regional sales differentiation, particularly in areas like Sichuan, where sales have accelerated due to previous inventory control measures [1][12][15]. 2. Core Company Tracking - Guizhou Moutai's sales are expected to continue growing, with a current average delivery progress exceeding 30%. The report notes that Moutai's inventory is low, and the market remains in a supply-demand imbalance, supporting price stability [24][28]. - Wuliangye's sales are stable, with delivery progress around 35-40%. The report indicates that the brand's performance is slightly better than last year, particularly in regions like Sichuan and Anhui [24][28]. - Luzhou Laojiao is experiencing slower sales, with delivery progress below 20%. The brand's high-end products are facing a decline in demand, while lower-end products still show some demand [25][28]. - Shanxi Fenjiu's sales are performing better than the industry average, with a stable inventory situation and continued growth in certain products [25][28]. - Yingjia Gongjiu is expected to see a slight decline in sales, but certain products are performing relatively well [26][28]. 3. Industry Holdings Analysis - The report notes that institutional holdings in the liquor sector are at historical lows, with a significant decrease in the proportion of active fund holdings in the liquor sector. This trend indicates a potential for recovery as the market stabilizes [2][8].

Group 1 - The overall performance of A-shares is expected to continue improving, with a projected net profit growth rate of 26.8% for 2025, indicating a single-digit growth trend [5][23][27] - Approximately 2954 A-share companies have disclosed their 2025 annual performance forecasts, with a disclosure rate of about 54% and a positive forecast rate of 36.9%, which is lower than the mid-year report but higher than the same period last year [12][18][23] - Key sectors expected to see performance improvement include the price increase chain, overseas expansion chain, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors, driven by demand from AI and new energy [2][29][30] Group 2 - The major industry performance rankings for 2025 are led by Information Technology, followed by Healthcare, Midstream Manufacturing, Resource Products, Financial Real Estate, and Public Utilities [26][27] - The sectors with the highest expected profit growth include non-bank financials, beauty care, textiles, retail, and non-ferrous metals, with non-bank financials showing a positive forecast rate of 87.5% [18][20] - The price increase chain, which includes industrial metals, energy metals, and chemical products, is expected to benefit from limited capacity expansion and demand driven by AI and new energy, leading to improved performance [29][31] Group 3 - The TMT sector is projected to maintain high growth due to strong demand for AI computing and storage, with specific areas like semiconductors and communication devices expected to see significant profit increases [29][30] - The overseas expansion chain, including automotive parts and medical devices, is anticipated to benefit from stable domestic demand and improving external demand [29][30] - Other sectors such as personal care products, medical services, and seasoning products are also recommended for attention due to their potential for performance improvement [2][29]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to financial engineering or ESG analysis[1][2][3][4] - The content primarily focuses on ESG market trends, policy updates, and industry developments without discussing specific quantitative models or factor construction methodologies[9][10][11] - No formulas, construction processes, or performance metrics for models or factors are provided in the report[12][13][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Amazon (AMZN.O) [2][4] Core Insights - Amazon's Q4 2025 revenue reached $213.4 billion, a year-over-year increase of 14%, with operating profit at $25 billion, up 18% year-over-year, and net profit at $21.2 billion, a 6% increase year-over-year, which aligns with expectations [1][5] - AWS revenue was $35.6 billion, showing a year-over-year growth of 24%, exceeding consensus expectations [1] - For 2026, Amazon's capital expenditure guidance is projected at approximately $200 billion, significantly higher than market expectations, indicating a focus on balancing demand and capacity [1][5] - Long-term prospects remain strong due to improvements in e-commerce fulfillment efficiency, competitive pricing, and accelerated growth in cloud services, alongside increased investments in AI [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024 to 2028 are as follows: $637.96 billion (2024), $716.92 billion (2025), $810.80 billion (2026E), $908.19 billion (2027E), and $1,014.42 billion (2028E), with year-over-year growth rates of 11%, 12.4%, 13.1%, 12%, and 11.7% respectively [3][8] - Operating profit is expected to grow from $68.59 billion in 2024 to $145.04 billion in 2028, with significant growth rates, particularly in 2026 at 24.1% [3][9] - Net profit projections are $59.25 billion (2024), $77.67 billion (2025), $82.30 billion (2026E), $99.36 billion (2027E), and $118.74 billion (2028E), with a notable growth rate of 31.1% in 2025 [3][8] Stock Performance - The current stock price is $208.72, with a market capitalization of $228 billion [4] - The stock has shown absolute performance of 9.1% over the past month, 17.6% over six months, and 20.0% over the past year [5]

Group 1 - The report maintains a strong positive outlook on the Hang Seng Technology Index, citing that recent declines are primarily due to liquidity shocks rather than fundamental changes in the market [2][4] - The report emphasizes that the peak of overseas liquidity shocks has passed, and strategies such as "buy the dip" are expected to be effective moving forward [5][6] - The relative valuation of Hong Kong technology stocks is at a historical low compared to A-share technology stocks, indicating potential for a rebound [4][27] Group 2 - Domestic liquidity issues caused by public funds over-allocating to Hong Kong stocks have eased, reducing selling pressure on the market [23][24] - The report highlights that the earnings expectations for the Hang Seng Index have been gently revised upwards, contributing to its resilience compared to the Hang Seng Technology Index, which has seen a stabilization in earnings expectations [38][39] - The report notes that the technology sector is experiencing significant advancements, with major companies like Tencent and Alibaba actively promoting AI models and applications [40][41] Group 3 - The report discusses the impact of stricter IPO quality controls by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, which is expected to improve market sentiment [29][30] - It is noted that the current absolute valuation of the Hang Seng Technology Index is low, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.13, suggesting limited downside potential for leading tech stocks [27][28] - The report indicates that the fundamentals of the Hong Kong market remain solid, with earnings expectations stabilizing, which is crucial for investor confidence [38][39]

Macro Insights - The average weekly working hours for corporate employees decreased to 48.43 hours, lower than in 2023 and 2024, but still above pre-pandemic levels[2] - The reduction in working hours has led to an increase in leisure time, with over 54.5 hours of leisure time available weekly, which is expected to boost consumer spending[2] Strategy Insights - The nomination of Waller as Fed Chair has raised hawkish monetary policy expectations, causing the dollar index to rebound and impacting emerging markets and commodities negatively[4] - Future market stability may depend on the Fed's interest rate decisions and the performance of various asset classes, with a focus on sectors benefiting from the 14th Five-Year Plan[4] Fixed Income Insights - The bond market sentiment index rose to 116.1, indicating a slight recovery in market sentiment[5] - The average duration for funds increased to 1.39 years, while the duration for insurance decreased to 7.56 years, reflecting varying risk appetites across sectors[7] Banking Insights - New regulations on digital currencies were introduced to mitigate risks associated with virtual currencies, emphasizing the illegal status of such currencies compared to legal tender[9] - The new regulations also include management requirements for Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization, aiming to prevent speculative activities in the market[10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "recommend" rating for the insurance industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance exceeding the benchmark index [6]. Core Insights - The insurance industry experienced a robust premium income growth in 2025, with life insurance companies achieving a nearly double-digit growth rate. The strong performance is expected to continue into 2026, particularly in the bancassurance channel, where new premium income is anticipated to double [1][6]. - Property insurance companies showed moderate growth in premium income, with a total of 17,570 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.9%. The non-auto insurance segment is expected to improve profitability due to the implementation of "reporting and operation integration" [1][6]. - Overall, the insurance industry reported a total premium income of 61,194 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 7.4%. The total assets of the industry reached 4,131.45 billion yuan, marking a 15.1% increase from the beginning of the year [1][6]. Summary by Sections Life Insurance Companies - Cumulative premium income for life insurance companies reached 43,624 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.9%. December alone saw a premium income of 2,152 billion yuan, up 6.0% year-on-year. The main driver of growth was the life insurance segment, which recorded a premium income of 16,830 billion yuan, growing by 10.1% [7]. - Health insurance premiums decreased by 5.8%, while accident insurance premiums fell by 14.4%, indicating ongoing pressure in these segments [1][7]. Property Insurance Companies - Cumulative premium income for property insurance companies was 17,570 billion yuan, with a stable growth rate of 3.9%. In December, the premium income was 1,413 billion yuan, reflecting a 4.4% increase year-on-year. The auto insurance segment generated 9,409 billion yuan, growing by 3.0% [7]. - Non-auto insurance premiums reached 8,161 billion yuan, with a notable growth of 5.0%. The agricultural insurance segment saw a dramatic increase of nearly 200% due to a low base effect from the previous year [1][7]. Overall Industry Performance - The insurance industry maintained a steady premium growth rate, with total premium income of 61,194 billion yuan, a 7.4% increase year-on-year. The total assets of the industry were reported at 4,131.45 billion yuan, up 15.1% from the start of the year [1][6]. - The report emphasizes that the "slow bull" market trend in the stock market is favorable for insurance companies' asset returns and supports the sales of floating income-type dividend insurance products [1][6].

证券研究报告|策略定期报告 2026 年 2 月 9 日 AI 应用加速产业渗透，机器人商业化时间节点前移 ——全球产业趋势跟踪周报（0209） 本周产业趋势主要集中在 AI 应用和人形机器人。AI 应用方面，腾讯元宝于 2 月 1日正式启动总额 10亿元的春节现金红包活动，单个红包最高金额达 1万元。 自活动启动以来，元宝 AI 生图功能日均调用增长 30 倍，新用户平均每天跟元 宝的互动问答超过 8 轮，用户单日使用元宝时长增长超 80%。人形机器人方面， 马斯克表示将在今年一季度推出 Optimus 第三代版本，并提及量产规划与产线 调整；Figure AI 发布新一代人形机器人 Helix 02，行为拟人性大幅上升；宇树 宣布开源 UnifoLM-VLA-0；银河通用发布首款工业级重载机器人 Galbot S1； 机器人产业投融资市场活跃度上升，多家车企确认切入人形机器人。 【主题与产业趋势】春节营销点燃竞争，AI 应用加速产业渗透。腾讯元宝于 2 月 1 日正式启动总额 10 亿元的春节现金红包活动，用户通过更新 App 至 2.55.0 版本即可参与抽奖，单个红包最高金额达 1 万元。腾讯董事会主 ...