证券研究报告 | 公司深度报告 2025 年 07 月 18 日 鼎泰高科（301377.SZ） PCB 主业业绩拐点持续兑现，切入机器人赛道打开成 长空间 周期/金属及材料 鼎泰高科是全球 PCB 钻针龙头，凭借产品+成本+交付+客户优势，实现市占 率稳步提升，2023 年全球市占率为 26.5%，龙头地位稳固。短期看，AI 算力 及终端创新需求共振，公司主业业绩拐点持续兑现；长期看，公司凭借技术同 源性，自制磨床切入丝杠生产领域，有望受益人形机器人发展浪潮，打开成长 天花板。首次覆盖，给予"增持"评级！ q 传统主业：AI 算力+科技创新新需求共振，公司盈利能力逐季提升。 q 潜在期权：具备设备自研基因，切入机器人赛道打开成长天花板。 增持（首次） 当前股价：40.12 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 410 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 71 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 16.4 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 2.8 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 6.2 | | ROE（TTM） | 10.1 | | 资产负债率 | 29.3% | | 主要股东 | 广 ...

目前来看，全年经济增速完成 5%左右的目标可能性较高。下半年出于增长 目标而出台增量政策的必要性和力度在下降。但另一方面，今年以来价格水 平继续承压，持续的价格负增长影响了国民经济的正常循环。因此，我们认 为下半年的宏观政策将着力治理价格问题，主要手段可能跟传统的宏观经济 调控政策有别。若成效显著，这将改变当前资产价格的定价逻辑，对市场走 势造成重大影响。 电话会议纪要（20250713） 研究部/总量研究 【宏观】反内卷不仅仅去产能；【策略】港股 IPO 的抽水效应如何；【固收】 科创债 ETF 启航；【银行】如何评估银行资产质量；【非银】牛市旗手券商 有望起飞；【地产】板块观点重申：主要房企估值或已进入投资区间；【基金 评价】美国主动基金业绩比较基准研究 q 【宏观 张一平】反内卷不仅仅去产能 证券研究报告| 行业定期报告 2025 年 07 月 18 日 招商证券丨总量的视野 推荐（维持） 相关报告 1、《电话会议纪要—招商证券总量 的视野》2025-07-04 2、《招商证券总量的视野电话会议 纪要（20250622）》2025-06-24 当前价格问题与企业间和企业内部内卷式竞争有明确的关系，内卷从 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司深度报告 2025 年 07 月 17 日 普洛药业（000739.SZ）CDMO 四问四答 华丽蜕变，跻身国内 CDMO 头部梯队 消费品/生物医药 我们曾于 2021 年发布《三问普洛药业 CDMO：结构、兽药、优势》，时隔四 年，我们再用四问四答更新普洛药业 CDMO 业务近年进展，并看好公司 CDMO 业务的高潜力驱动公司持续发展。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：14.8 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 1158 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 1158 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 17.1 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 17.1 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 6.0 | | ROE（TTM） | 14.8 | | 资产负债率 | 44.9% | | 主要股东 | 横店集团控股有限公司 | | 主要股东持股比例 | 28.3% | 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 2 -0 13 相对表现 -2 -6 -1 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Jul/24 Nov/24 Mar/25 Jun/25 ( ...

证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2025 年 07 月 17 日 25Q3 收入指引不及预期，25/26 年指引较为保守 ASML 25Q2 跟踪报告 TMT 及中小盘/电子 事件： 阿斯麦尔（ASML.O）于 7 月 16 日发布 2025 年第二季度财报，25Q2 收入 76.92 亿欧元，同比+23.2%/环比-0.6%；签单 55.41 亿欧元，同比-0.5%/环比+40.8%； 公司调整 2025 年收入和毛利率指引，对 2026 年收入指引偏谨慎。综合财报及 交流会议信息，总结要点如下： 评论： 1、25Q2 营收位于指引上限，毛利率超指引预期，新签订单环比提升。 1）财务：25Q2 收入 76.92亿欧元，同比+23.2%/环比-0.6%，位于指引上限（72-77 亿欧元），其中设备收入 55.96 亿欧元，同比+17.5%/环比-2.5%，服务收入 20.96 亿欧元，同比+41.4%/环比+4.7%；毛利率 53.7%，同比+2.2pcts/环比-0.3pct， 超指引预期（50%-53%），NXE:3800 设备现场升级、一次性收益及关税影响 好于预期带动毛利率超预期，1 台 High N ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the semiconductor industry, with an upgrade in the revenue growth forecast for the year 2025 to approximately 30% [3][26]. Core Insights - TSMC's Q2 2025 revenue reached $30.07 billion, exceeding guidance, driven by strong demand for 3/5nm technologies, with a year-on-year growth of 44.4% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 17.8% [1][20]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 58.6%, close to the upper limit of guidance, reflecting effective cost management despite some dilution from overseas operations and currency fluctuations [1][20]. - The company expects Q3 2025 revenue to be between $31.8 billion and $33 billion, indicating a year-on-year growth of 38% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 8% [3][22]. - TSMC's capital expenditure for Q2 2025 was $9.63 billion, with a full-year guidance of $38 billion to $42 billion, indicating a commitment to expanding capacity in response to strong demand, particularly in AI and HPC sectors [4][22]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - TSMC reported a Q2 2025 revenue of $30.07 billion, with a gross margin of 58.6% and a net profit of $12.93 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 61% [1][20]. - The operating profit margin was 49.6%, exceeding guidance, with a return on equity (ROE) of 34.7% [1][20]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue by technology node: 3nm (24%), 5nm (36%), and 7nm (14%), with 74% of revenue coming from advanced processes [2][20]. - Revenue by platform: HPC (60%), smartphones (27%), IoT (5%), automotive (5%), and data communication equipment (1%) [2][20]. Guidance and Outlook - The guidance for Q3 2025 indicates strong revenue growth, with an expected gross margin of 55.5% to 57.5% [3][22]. - TSMC anticipates a significant increase in AI-related revenue, projecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 45% from AI acceleration chips from 2024 to 2028 [4][22]. Global Expansion Plans - TSMC plans to invest $165 billion in advanced semiconductor manufacturing in Arizona, including multiple fabs and a major R&D center [28][29]. - The company is also expanding its operations in Japan and Europe, focusing on specialized technologies and automotive applications [29][30]. Technology Development - The N2 and A16 technologies are expected to meet the growing demand for high-efficiency computing, with N2 projected to enter mass production in the second half of 2025 [31][32]. - TSMC's advanced packaging strategy is aligned with its advanced process development, ensuring a comprehensive approach to meet customer needs [45].

本周产业趋势集中在大模型和 AI 芯片。大模型方面，Grok-4 大模型正式发布， xAI 确立 AI 新标杆。当地时间 7 月 9 日，马斯克 xAI 公司震撼发布最新一代大 语言模型 Grok-4，并在 X 平台进行全球直播。芯片方面，英伟达、AMD 芯片 供应相继解禁，美方批准 H20 与 MI308X 芯片对华销售。政策端方面，上周重 点关注整治"内卷式"竞争及财政部发布险企长周期考核新规。市场监管部门 召开企业公平竞争座谈会，建筑、炼焦等行业相应做出"反内卷"行动，推动 行业有序发展；财政部则完善险企净资产收益率考核体系，强化长期稳健投资 导向，提升资本使用效率。 ❑ 风险提示：经济数据不及预期，政策理解不全面，海外政策超预期收紧。 定期报告 相关报告 证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2025 年 07 月 17 日 Grok-4 大模型正式发布，多行业聚焦整治"内卷式"竞争 ——全球产业趋势跟踪周报（0717） 张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 李昊阳 S1090524120005 lihaoyang1@cmschina.com.cn 郭佳宜 ...

公司发布 2025 年半年度业绩预告，2025 年上半年，公司实现归属于上市公司 股东的净利润 7816.82-9019.40 万元，比上年同期增长 17%-35%；实现扣除非 经常性损益后的净利润 7098.12-8300.70 万元，比上年同期增长 26.72%-48.19%。 证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 07 月 17 日 道恩股份（002838.SZ） 2025 年半年度业绩增长强劲，TPV 和 DVA 等产品空间 广阔 强烈推荐（维持） 周期/化工 目标估值：NA 当前股价：19.39 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 478 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 421 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 9.3 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 8.2 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 6.8 | | ROE（TTM） | 4.6 | | 资产负债率 | 48.9% | | 主要股东 | 道恩集团有限公司 | | 主要股东持股比例 | 43.52% | 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 1 69 111 相对表现 -3 63 96 资料来源：公 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that urbanization in China is transitioning from a rapid growth phase to a stable development phase, emphasizing a shift from large-scale incremental expansion to a focus on improving existing stock and efficiency [1][2][8] - The emphasis on "high-quality urban renewal" suggests a move away from large-scale demolitions towards enhancing urban functionality and quality [1][2][9] - The report highlights the importance of integrated planning involving population, industry, urban areas, and transportation to optimize urban spatial structure [1][2][7] Industry Overview - The total number of stocks in the industry is 256, with a total market capitalization of 2,792 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 2,643.8 billion [3] - The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is 3.2%, 5.8%, and 35.2% respectively, while the relative performance is -0.9%, -0.1%, and 19.6% [5] Urban Renewal and Development - The report notes a significant change in the approach to urban renewal, focusing on quality improvements rather than extensive demolition [2][7][9] - The mention of "steady progress in the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing" indicates a more cautious and structured approach to urban renewal [1][2][9] Real Estate Development Model - The report suggests that there will be a continued push towards establishing a new model for real estate development, consistent with previous governmental statements [1][2][7] - The focus on optimizing the quality of land supply and urban planning is expected to create new opportunities in the real estate sector [1][2][7] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in companies with capabilities in managing existing assets, such as China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, and China Overseas Development [8][10] - Companies involved in urban governance and public services, such as China Resources Vientiane Life and Poly Property, are highlighted as potential investment targets [8][10] - The report also suggests looking into sectors related to urban renewal, including inspection and testing, decoration, construction, and building materials for pipeline upgrades [8][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook on the sector's fundamentals and expected performance relative to the benchmark index [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of marginal improvements and the recovery of the export chain, particularly in the consumer goods sector [1]. - It highlights the overall growth in retail sales, with June's total retail sales reaching 42,287 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [7]. - The report notes that the online retail sector has shown significant growth, with a total online retail sales of 74,295 billion yuan in the first half of the year, up 8.5% year-on-year [8]. Summary by Sections Industry Scale - The industry comprises 1,212 listed companies, accounting for 23.7% of the total market [1]. - The total market capitalization stands at 17,086.8 billion yuan, representing 18.7% of the overall market [1]. - The circulating market capitalization is 15,615.9 billion yuan, which is 18.8% of the total market [1]. Performance Metrics - The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is 3.1%, 14.8%, and 33.5% respectively [3]. - The relative performance compared to the benchmark index shows a decline of 0.4% over 1 month, but an increase of 9.4% over 6 months and 19.0% over 12 months [3]. Consumer Goods Insights - The report suggests focusing on structural opportunities in the food and beverage sector, particularly in alcoholic beverages and snacks [6][11]. - It recommends investing in leading companies that have shown resilience and potential for growth, such as Moutai and other major brands in the food sector [12]. Retail Trends - The report indicates a shift in consumer behavior, with a notable increase in demand for online shopping and convenience stores, which saw a year-on-year growth of 7.5% in the first half of the year [8]. - The report also highlights the competitive landscape in the food delivery sector, driven by aggressive subsidy strategies from major platforms [22][23]. Export Chain Recovery - The report discusses the recovery of the export chain, particularly for companies with strong manufacturing capabilities and those benefiting from favorable tariff conditions [19]. - It emphasizes the potential for growth in the home appliance sector, particularly in the context of new consumer trends and technological advancements [19][20].

Group 1 - The core observation indicates a narrowing year-on-year growth in social retail sales for June, with improvements noted in automotive and furniture retail [1][20]. - The report highlights that the total retail sales of consumer goods in June increased by 4.8% year-on-year, which is lower than the previous month's growth of 6.4% [12][20]. - The report recommends focusing on sectors with high or improving economic sentiment, including automotive, consumer electronics, home appliances, furniture, and leisure food [21]. Group 2 - In the information technology sector, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index both showed upward trends, indicating a positive outlook [5]. - The production of smartphones turned positive year-on-year in June, and the production of integrated circuits also saw an increase in the rolling three-month year-on-year growth rate [3][5]. - The report notes that the prices of DDR4 DRAM memory increased on a month-on-month basis, while the prices of NAND and DRAM indices also rose [5][6]. Group 3 - In the midstream manufacturing sector, the production of solar cells and industrial robots showed an expanding year-on-year growth rate in June, indicating a recovery in these areas [3][5]. - The sales of major engineering machinery companies improved year-on-year in June, reflecting a positive trend in the construction and machinery sectors [3][5]. - The report mentions that the price index for photovoltaic products increased on a week-on-week basis, suggesting a strengthening market for solar energy products [6][10]. Group 4 - The report indicates that essential consumer goods showed mixed performance, with staple food categories benefiting from rigid demand, while demand for beverages and tobacco products weakened [20]. - The "trade-in" policy continues to stimulate growth in home appliances and communication equipment, maintaining double-digit growth rates in these categories [20]. - The report highlights that the retail growth rates for gold and silver jewelry, daily necessities, and cultural office supplies have slowed down but still maintain relatively high growth [20].