Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the commercial aerospace industry, particularly focusing on the investment opportunities in the rocket supply chain due to existing supply gaps and the long-term potential of rocket manufacturers and satellite industry chains with commercial model advantages [1]. Core Insights - The Chinese commercial aerospace industry is identified as a strategic emerging industry that resonates with national strategies and industrial trends, expected to witness significant developments in 2026, including reusable rocket technology validation and IPO progress of commercial aerospace companies [1]. - The current core bottleneck in the industry is the insufficient launch capacity, which is crucial for the scaled development of the sector. The report highlights that in 2025, the global launch capacity is dominated by the US, with a significant gap compared to China [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of reusable rocket technology, which can transform rockets from disposable assets to reusable ones, significantly reducing launch costs and increasing launch frequency and payload capacity [5][6]. Industry Overview - The commercial aerospace industry in China has developed a complete industrial chain consisting of satellites, rockets, and launch sites, gradually extending to measurement and control and applications [5]. - As of 2025, the US has conducted 193 rocket launches, while China has conducted 92, indicating a competitive landscape where the US currently leads [5]. - The report notes that the US has deployed 3,724 satellites compared to China's 372, highlighting the disparity in satellite deployment capabilities [5]. Investment Logic - Short-term opportunities are identified in the rocket supply chain due to the current launch capacity constraints, with specific recommendations for companies involved in high-value components and materials [6]. - Long-term prospects are focused on the transformation of rocket manufacturers' business models towards launch operations and the anticipated growth in satellite demand once the launch capacity bottleneck is resolved [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the semiconductor industry, particularly for TSMC, with expectations of strong revenue growth and profitability in the coming years [4][23]. Core Insights - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue reached $33.73 billion, exceeding guidance, with a year-over-year growth of 25.5% and a gross margin of 62.3% [1][19]. - The company anticipates Q1 2026 revenue between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 38.6% [3][23]. - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2026 is projected to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, with a significant portion allocated to advanced process technologies [4][25]. - The AI market is expected to drive substantial growth, with AI accelerator revenue projected to account for 15% of total revenue in 2025 [4][26]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue was $33.73 billion, with a gross margin of 62.3%, driven by improved capacity utilization and cost optimization [1][19]. - The company reported a net profit of $16.37 billion for Q4 2025, a year-over-year increase of 34.98% [1][19]. - For the full year 2025, TSMC's revenue was $122 billion, reflecting a 35.9% year-over-year growth [1][22]. Advanced Technology and Market Segmentation - Advanced process technologies (3nm, 5nm, and 7nm) accounted for 77% of TSMC's revenue, with 3nm technology representing 28% [2][20]. - The high-performance computing (HPC) segment generated $18.55 billion in revenue, while smartphone revenue was $10.79 billion [2][20]. Capital Expenditure and Growth Projections - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2025 was $40.9 billion, with 70%-80% allocated to advanced process technologies [4][25]. - The company has raised its CAGR forecast for AI-related revenue from 2024 to 2029 to 55%-59% [4][26]. Future Outlook - TSMC expects Q1 2026 gross margin to be between 63% and 65%, with potential dilution from overseas expansion and new technology ramp-up [3][24]. - The company plans to enhance production efficiency and expand capacity to meet growing demand, particularly in AI and HPC sectors [26][27].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Strong Buy" for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience performance elasticity driven by high copper paste and storage businesses, with a focus on its aerospace and space photovoltaic layout [7]. - The company anticipates a net profit loss of 200-300 million yuan for 2025, with a non-recurring net profit loss of 160-240 million yuan [1]. - The rapid increase in silver prices is expected to accelerate the replacement of precious metal pastes, with the company's high copper paste expected to see significant volume in 2026 [7]. - The acquisition of Sot has positioned the company as a global leader in photovoltaic paste market share, leveraging global customer advantages in new space photovoltaic scenarios [7]. - The semiconductor second curve is beginning to ramp up, with the storage chip business projected to generate approximately 500 million yuan in revenue for 2025 [7]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of -250 million, 530 million, and 740 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, respectively [7]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 9,603 million yuan in 2023 to 22,032 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 155% in 2023 and 10% in 2027 [3][11]. - The company's net profit is expected to recover from a loss of 247 million yuan in 2025 to a profit of 740 million yuan in 2027 [3][11]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 30.4 in 2023 to 15.8 in 2027, indicating improved valuation over time [3][11]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from -16.1% in 2025 to 32.7% in 2027 [11].

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 01 月 15 日 智谱和 Minimax 上市表现亮眼，AI 应用爆发 传媒互联网行业周报 TMT 及中小盘/传媒 近期我们继续坚定推荐各个细分行业龙头公司，我们继续坚定看好【神州泰岳】 【南方传媒】【分众传媒】【完美世界】【恺英网络】【巨人网络】【腾讯控 股】【昆仑万维】【中国科传】【芒果超媒】【哔哩哔哩】【中文在线】等 ❑ 过去的一周，传媒行业上涨了 13.55%，在所有行业中排名第 2 位，传媒板块 年初到现在上涨了 23.49%，排名所有板块第 1 名。开年一周，传媒板块在游 戏和 AI 应用的双重带动下突飞猛进，AI 应用龙头公司蓝色光标，易点天下， 昆仑万维等涨幅巨大，而 AI 应用背后大涨的原因，我们认为有三件事值得关 注：一件事就是近期阿里加大投入淘宝闪购，股价出现调整，但美股阿里巴 巴大涨，毫无疑问，这是投资者对其未来 AI 业务发展的肯定和期待；其次， MINIMAX 已经于 1 月 9 日敲钟上市，创下近年来港股 IPO 机构认购历史记录。 此次参与 MiniMaxIPO 认购的机构超过 460 家，超额认购达 70 多倍。而且很 多都是各 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the poultry farming industry is "Strongly Recommended" for key companies such as Shengnong Development, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Lihua Co., Ltd. [4] Core Insights - The report highlights that the price of white feather chickens has reached a yearly high, significantly improving profitability in the breeding sector. The supply of chickens is tightening, and the impact of avian influenza on imports is expected to boost the breeding segment's outlook. Yellow feather chickens continue to maintain good profitability. [2][10][12] Summary by Sections White Feather Chicken - The average price of broiler chickens in December reached 7.44 yuan/kg, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.5% but a month-on-month increase of 4.3%. The average price of chicken products was 9088 yuan/ton, down 2.4% year-on-year but up 2% month-on-month. The breeding sector saw a loss of 0.26 yuan per chicken, but profitability has improved significantly compared to the previous year. [10][11] - The average price of chicken seedlings in December was 3.54 yuan per chick, down 11.1% year-on-year but up 1.2% month-on-month. Major companies like Yisheng sold 61.74 million chicks, a year-on-year increase of 39.6%. [11] - The report notes that the import volume of grandparent stock white feather chickens in China decreased by over 10% year-on-year, and avian influenza outbreaks in France have further impacted imports, leading to a positive outlook for the breeding segment. [12][31] Yellow Feather Chicken - The average price of fast-growing yellow feather chickens in December was 4.24 yuan per jin, down 13.4% year-on-year and 12% month-on-month. The average price of Xueshan grass chickens was 7.93 yuan per jin, down 5% year-on-year but up 3.3% month-on-month. The winter season has improved consumption, maintaining good profitability in the breeding sector. [22][26] - The report indicates that the production capacity of parent yellow feather chickens has dropped to historically low levels, which, combined with prolonged industry losses, is expected to lead to a supply contraction and set the stage for price increases in 2026. [27][31] - The cost of raising yellow feather chickens has decreased, with major companies reporting costs around 5.7 yuan per jin for Wens and 5.5-5.6 yuan per jin for Lihua. A recovery in chicken prices is anticipated to significantly enhance profitability. [27][31] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the breeding segment of white feather chickens, with Shengnong Development highlighted as a key investment opportunity. For yellow feather chickens, Lihua Co., Ltd. and Dekang Agriculture are recommended due to their favorable cost structures and potential for profitability in the upcoming period. [30][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the agricultural sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals [14]. Core Insights - The USDA's January report revises global corn, soybean, and wheat production forecasts upwards, suggesting a more favorable supply situation for these crops [14]. - The report highlights a significant narrowing of the global corn supply-demand gap, with total demand expected to reach a record 1.3 billion tons for the 2025/26 season [1][2]. - Global wheat supply is projected to be ample, with an increase in the ending stock-to-use ratio, which is expected to rise to 33.8% for the 2025/26 season [7][8]. - The soybean market is characterized by a slight increase in global production expectations, primarily driven by favorable conditions in Brazil and the U.S., despite a minor downward adjustment in China's production [10][11]. Summary by Sections Corn - The USDA report revises the 2025/26 global corn production forecast upwards by approximately 13.05 million tons to 1.296 billion tons, a 5.3% increase year-on-year [1]. - The U.S. corn production is adjusted to a record 170 million bushels, reflecting a 14.3% increase from the previous year [2]. - The global corn ending stock-to-use ratio is projected at 22.4%, down 1.16 percentage points from the previous year [1][5]. Wheat - The global wheat production forecast is raised by about 4.36 million tons to 842 million tons for the 2025/26 season, a 5.2% year-on-year increase [7]. - The report indicates a total global wheat consumption increase of 0.11% year-on-year, with a projected surplus of 18.26 million tons [7][8]. - The ending stock-to-use ratio for wheat is expected to increase to 33.8%, reflecting a more comfortable supply situation [7][8]. Soybeans - The global soybean production forecast is increased by approximately 3.14 million tons to 426 million tons for the 2025/26 season, despite a slight decrease in China's production [10][12]. - U.S. soybean production is adjusted to 116 million tons, a 2.6% decrease year-on-year, while total consumption is expected to rise by 5.6% [11][13]. - The global soybean ending stock-to-use ratio is projected at 29.4%, down 0.44 percentage points from the previous year [10][12].

证券研究报告 | 行业联合报告 2026 年 01 月 14 日 招商证券 | 总量的视野 电话会议纪要（20260111） 研究部/总量研究 【宏观】1 月降息预期打消；【策略】2026 开年产业趋势新变化；【固收】开 年债市急跌的原因及后续展望；【银行】存款到期规模与可能的流向；【非银】 16 连阳，看好券商保险；【地产】REITs：25 年回顾及 26 年展望；【资配】 A 股择时轮动模型年度复盘及展望；【基金评价】公开募集证券投资基金销售 费用解读；【ESG】12 月国内 ESG 动态跟踪 【宏观 张岸天】1 月降息预期打消 12 月美国非农数据细节冷热参差，尽管私营部门就业增速放缓，整体上失业率 回落和时薪增速反弹的数据组合基本打消了海外市场对美联储1 月降息的预期。 分行业来看，周期性行业多表现疲弱，同时政府部门就业增速转正，DOGE 减 员的滞后统计影响出现消退。制造业连续三个月减员，录得-0.8 万人（前值-0.2 万人）。建筑业减员 1.1 万人（前值 2.2 万人），移民政策变化致使供需双弱。 零售业减员 2.5 万人（前值-1.7 万人），运输仓储业减员-0.7 万人（前值-2.5 万人 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company is focusing on deepening its core projection business while exploring new growth opportunities in the wearable display sector, as showcased at CES 2026 with the launch of two significant products [1]. - The Titan Noir Max series of projectors aims to redefine consumer-grade image quality with advanced features, while the MemoMind AI glasses represent a strategic expansion into the wearable technology market [6]. - The company's strategy emphasizes a comprehensive display ecosystem, covering various scenarios from home projection to personal wearable devices, which is expected to unlock new growth avenues [6]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023 at 3,557 million, 2024 at 3,405 million, 2025E at 3,614 million, 2026E at 4,611 million, and 2027E at 5,802 million, reflecting a growth trajectory with a notable increase of 28% in 2026 [2][18]. - Operating profit is projected to recover significantly from 33 million in 2023 to 454 million in 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 138% [2][18]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 121 million in 2023 to 454 million in 2026, indicating a 131% increase [2][18]. - The company's PE ratio is projected to decrease from 64.7 in 2023 to 17.2 in 2026, suggesting a potential valuation bottoming out [2][18]. Key Products and Innovations - The Titan Noir Max projector features a dynamic aperture system achieving a native contrast ratio of 10,000:1, enhancing image quality for both consumer and professional use [6]. - The MemoMind AI glasses are designed for lightweight smart interaction, featuring a MicroLED display and supporting real-time translation and information display [6]. - The company has established a strong synergy between its optical technology and wearable device needs, enhancing its competitive position in the market [6].

Inflation Data - December CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations[1] - Core CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month and remained flat at 2.6% year-on-year[1] Energy and Food Prices - Energy prices saw a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, down from 4.2% previously, with energy commodities dropping by 3.0%[1] - Food prices increased by 3.1% year-on-year, with household food rising by 2.4% and non-household food by 4.1%[1] Core Inflation Insights - Rent prices increased by 3.6% year-on-year, while owners' equivalent rent remained stable at 3.4%[1] - Core services CPI recorded a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, with medical care services at 3.5%[1] Tariff Impact - Tariff price transmission remains limited, with CPI for goods excluding food and energy at 1.4% year-on-year[1] - New vehicle prices increased by only 0.3% year-on-year, indicating subdued price trends despite the sales season[1] Market Reactions - U.S. Treasury yields slightly declined, with the 2-year yield at approximately 3.52% and the 10-year yield at around 4.17%[1] - Major U.S. stock indices faced pressure, with the Nasdaq down by 0.2% to approximately 23,694[1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for JD Group with a target price range of HKD 125 to 150, while the current stock price is HKD 117.4 [2][5]. Core Insights - JD Group's total revenue is expected to see a slight year-on-year increase in Q4 2025, with a projected Non-GAAP net profit of approximately 480 million yuan [1][5]. - The report highlights that the decline in revenue growth for the electric category is due to the reduction of national subsidies and a high comparative base from the previous year, while daily necessities and third-party (3P) revenues are expected to maintain double-digit growth [1][5]. - The report expresses a long-term positive outlook on the company's growth resilience under its self-operated model and strong supply chain bargaining power, which is expected to enhance profit margins [1][5]. Financial Data and Valuation - For the fiscal years 2023 to 2027, the projected main revenue (in million yuan) is as follows: 1,084,662 (2023), 1,158,819 (2024), 1,305,167 (2025E), 1,361,675 (2026E), and 1,419,895 (2027E), with year-on-year growth rates of 4%, 7%, 13%, 4%, and 4% respectively [2][6]. - The Non-GAAP net profit projections are: 35,200 (2023), 47,827 (2024), 26,428 (2025E), 32,720 (2026E), and 50,951 (2027E), with significant fluctuations in growth rates [2][6]. - The report indicates a P/E ratio forecast of 8.7 (2023), 6.4 (2024), 11.6 (2025E), 9.4 (2026E), and 6.0 (2027E) [2][9]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown an absolute performance of 9.1% over the past month, 17.6% over six months, and 20.0% over the past year [4]. - Relative performance indicates a 6.0% outperformance over one month, 2.4% over six months, but a 9.8% underperformance over the past year [4]. Business Segment Insights - The report notes that the new business segment is expected to reduce losses in Q4, with improvements in delivery volume and user experience (UE) for the food delivery service [1][5]. - The report anticipates that the food delivery business will continue to improve in 2026, with a focus on enhancing user experience [1][5]. Shareholder Information - The total share capital is 3,188 million shares, with 2,865 million shares listed in Hong Kong [3]. - The major shareholder, Max Smart Limited, holds a 9.6007% stake in the company [3]. Financial Ratios - The report provides key financial ratios, including a return on equity (ROE) of 17.8% and a debt-to-asset ratio of 57.3% [3][9]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for the years 2023 to 2027 are 8.34, 14.27, 5.85, 9.26, and 14.87 respectively [2][9].