Group 1 - The report indicates that the stock market's strength has led to short-term adjustment pressure on the bond market, resulting in a passive narrowing of credit spreads, particularly in short-duration bonds, with 1-year credit spreads across various ratings narrowing by 5-7 basis points [1][4] - The report highlights that the overall turnover rate of credit bonds has decreased from 2.36% to 2.21%, reflecting a reduction in market trading activity, with the weighted average transaction duration slightly increasing from 2.8 years to 2.9 years [2] - Fund managers are maintaining an allocation to credit bonds, although the intensity has weakened, with a shift towards shorter-duration bonds, while insurance companies have increased their net purchases of long-duration credit bonds [3] Group 2 - The report suggests that despite the stock market's upward pressure on the bond market, there remains a potential for short-term volatility, and it recommends a strategy of selectively increasing positions during adjustments rather than aggressively chasing gains [4] - The report notes that the average yield of credit bonds has generally increased, with the 3-year and 5-year credit bonds showing significant upward movement, particularly in lower-rated municipal bonds [10][17] - The report identifies specific sectors such as steel and coal that may benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, indicating potential opportunities in industry bonds [4]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 07 月 13 日 东鹏饮料（605499.SH） Q2 收入延续高增，打造平台型饮料公司 消费品/食品饮料 公司发布 2025 年半年度业绩预增公告， 25Q2 实现营业收入 57.8-59.9 亿元， 同比+31.7%-36.5%；扣非归母净利润 12.6-14.0 亿元，同比+16.5%-29.5%， 收入符合预期高增，利润略低于此前预期。全品类保持较高动销状态，加大冰 冻化建设费用阶段性增加。一二曲线协同成长，打造平台型饮料公司，维持 25-27 年 EPS 预测至 8.55、10.68、12.88 元，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 ❑ 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、新品渠道拓展及动销不及预期、成本上涨 | 财务数据与估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 11263 | 15839 | 20689 | 25740 | 31038 | | 同比增长 | 32% | 41% | 31 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the environmental and public utility sector [2] Core Viewpoints - The construction of zero-carbon parks has officially started, accelerating the green and low-carbon transformation of industries [10] - The national maximum electricity load reached 1.465 billion kilowatts on July 4, 2025, an increase of approximately 200 million kilowatts from the end of June and nearly 150 million kilowatts year-on-year, indicating strong electricity demand growth [6][10] - The report recommends specific companies such as Sheneng Co., Guodian Power, and China Nuclear Power, while suggesting attention to Zhongmin Energy and Funiu Co. [6] Summary by Sections Key Event Interpretations - The National Development and Reform Commission and other agencies issued a notice to support the construction of zero-carbon parks, marking the beginning of standardized implementation [10] - The approval of a cross-grid trading mechanism aims to optimize electricity resource allocation and support power supply during peak summer periods in 2025 [14] Market Performance Review - The environmental and public utility sector indices increased by 3.17% and 1.11% respectively, with the environmental sector outperforming the market [19] - Year-to-date, the environmental sector has risen by 11.72%, leading over the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices [19] Key Data Tracking - As of July 11, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal was 630 CNY/ton, up 1.61% from July 4, 2025 [34] - The average price of LNG at the port was 12.94 USD/MMBtu (4829 CNY/ton), reflecting a 3.80% increase from July 3, 2025 [52] - The weighted average electricity price in Guangdong reached a peak of 350.77 CNY/MWh on July 9, 2025, a 31.4% increase [56] Industry Key Events - The implementation of market-oriented pricing for renewable energy projects in Shanxi Province aims to enhance the high-quality development of renewable energy [64] - The establishment of a carbon peak pilot project in Yancheng City focuses on monitoring and analyzing carbon emissions across various sectors [65]

汽车行业周报 理想 i8 即将月底上市，尚界发布首款车型预热海报 中游制造/汽车 7 月 6 日至 7 月 12 日，汽车行业整体下跌 0.6%。2025 年 6 月，中国汽车经销 商库存预警指数为 56.6%，同比下降 5.7 个百分点，环比上升 3.9 个百分点，汽 车流通行业景气度环比有所下降。新车方面，理想 i8 将于 7 月 29 日上市，预 计 35 万起售；零跑首款轿车零跑 B01 将于 7 月下旬正式上市，预售价区间为 10.58-13.58 万元；尚界发布首款车型预热海报，首款车型的轮廓为一款 SUV。 ❑ 市场板块行情回顾 本周 CS 汽车-0.6%。本周（7 月 6 日至 7 月 12 日，下同）上证 A 指涨跌幅 为+1.1%，深证 A 指涨跌幅为+2.0%，创业板涨跌幅为+2.4%。本周各行业板 块多数上涨，涨幅居前的行业板块为 CS 综合金融（+6.7%）、CS 房地产 （+6.1%）和 CS 非银行金融（+3.9%），跌幅居前的行业板块为 CS 汽车 （-0.6%）、CS 家电（-0.2%）和 CS 银行（-0.1%）。 汽车产业链各板块行情：本周，汽车行业二级板块多数下跌，其中 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for key companies in the industry, including Jingyuan International, Shenzhou International, and Huali Group, based on their growth potential and market positioning [4][34]. Core Insights - The industry is experiencing a marginal improvement in revenue growth for leading manufacturers, with a positive outlook for NIKE as inventory and channel conditions improve, suggesting a potential for sequential sales growth [1][3]. - The U.S. retail market has shown signs of recovery, with a positive growth trend in terminal retail sales and stable inventory levels, while Southeast Asian textile exports remain robust [2][11]. - New product launches from major international brands in sports fashion and outdoor segments are expected to increase, with a focus on market feedback for these new offerings [15][17]. Summary by Sections Industry Prosperity Analysis - Demand Side: U.S. terminal retail sales have shown recovery in Q2 2025, with healthy inventory levels. Vietnam's textile exports increased by 16% year-on-year in June 2025, while footwear exports decreased by 3% [2][13]. - Industry Trends: Major international brands are gradually launching new products in July, with an emphasis on monitoring market responses [15]. Supply Chain Tracking - Brand Side: NIKE's revenue for FY25Q4 was $11.1 billion, down 12% year-on-year, but inventory clearance and channel expansion are progressing well, with expectations for sequential improvement in sales [3][17]. - Manufacturing Side: Revenue growth for leading manufacturers showed marginal improvement in June, with specific companies reporting varied performance, such as Yuyuan's manufacturing business up by 9.4% and Yuchi's outdoor footwear revenue up by 23% [24][29]. Investment Recommendations - Jingyuan International is recommended for its diverse product range and operational efficiency, with a current market valuation corresponding to a PE of 8.5X for 2025 [4][34]. - Shenzhou International is highlighted for its recovery in capacity utilization and production efficiency, with a market valuation corresponding to a PE of 12X for 2025 [4][34]. - Huali Group is noted for its optimized customer structure and ongoing capacity expansion, with a market valuation corresponding to a PE of 15X for 2025 [4][34].

海外方面，1）全球关税或存升级风险，但对市场扰动或有限。特朗普选择优 先施压的 22 个经济体，除日韩外，均体量偏小、对美国重要程度偏低，可能 是在为后续与更亲密盟友国和更大型经济体谈判争取更多筹码。2）往后看， 值得关注的时点：7.15 美国 6 月 CPI 数据，7.15-8 月初美股 Q2 财报，7.28 财政部 Q3 再融资会议，8.1 和 8.10 美国对等关税变化（非美和中国）。 回到资产端：1）近期的"强美股+弱美元"格局有助于提振非美权益风险偏好 及流动性，且美元只要仍在 95-100 区间即为弱势。2）今年以来全球权益市场 存在轮动特征：德国 DAX、恒生科技➔韩国➔美股、A 股。若随后 1-2 周全球 未现显著利空因素，恒生科技再次向上突破的概率有所增加。3）国内方面， "反内卷"对资产风格的影响暂不显著，在 PPI 同比回正预期出现前，哑铃型 策略依旧有效。 定期报告 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 07 月 13 日 全球权益轮动，港股或为下阶段焦点 ——宏观与大类资产周报 频率：每周 国内方面， 1）上半年经济增速明显超过全年目标，给了政策端进行经济结构 调整的窗口期。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant year-on-year decline in both new and second-hand housing transaction areas, with the decline rate expanding [2][10] - The report indicates that the overall demand for new and second-hand homes may stabilize due to potential decreases in mortgage rates, which could narrow the gap between net rental returns and mortgage rates [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of urban renewal and the optimization of existing policies to stabilize the real estate market [6] Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - The year-on-year decline in new housing transaction areas has expanded, with a reported decrease of 24% for sample cities [4] - The decline in new housing transactions is more pronounced in first-tier cities, with a 21% decrease [4][10] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing transaction areas has also expanded, with a reported decrease of 10% for sample cities [4] - First-tier cities have seen a shift to negative growth in second-hand housing transactions, with a 10% decline [4] Market Trends and Indicators - The average number of viewings for second-hand homes in 12 sample cities has decreased by 8.3% month-on-month [5][45] - The liquidity outlook indicates an expansion in macro-level liquidity as of July 2025 [5][49] Land Acquisition - The cumulative land transaction area from January to June 2025 has seen a year-on-year decline of 5%, while the average transaction price has increased by 33% [24] - The report notes a decrease in the proportion of listings with price increases, indicating a potential cooling in market expectations [50] Inventory and Unsold Properties - The report indicates a marginal increase in the unsold inventory cycle for newly acquired and unsold properties compared to April [34] - The unsold inventory cycle for newly constructed properties in first-tier cities has decreased, while it has increased in second and third-tier cities [36]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Recommended" based on positive fundamental outlook and expected outperformance of the industry index compared to the benchmark index [3][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights an increase in the dry bulk market's performance, a focus on the valuation of Hong Kong infrastructure assets, an upward trend in the aviation industry's fundamentals for 2025-2026, and potential price competition and valuation recovery in the express delivery sector for 2025 [1][7][18][20]. Shipping - The container shipping market shows signs of recovery with slight price increases on the US routes, while the dry bulk market, particularly for Panamax vessels, has seen a notable rise in rates due to increased demand from coal and grain shipments [7][11][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring trade agreements between the US and other countries, which could impact shipping volumes [12][16]. Infrastructure - The report indicates that Hong Kong infrastructure assets still have room for valuation improvement, with stable earnings and dividend expectations from leading highway assets [18]. - The yield on 10Y and 30Y government bonds has slightly increased, suggesting continued investment interest in dividend-paying infrastructure assets [18]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is expected to see a growth rate exceeding 20% in 2024, with a continued double-digit growth forecast for 2025 [20]. - The report notes a recent recovery in express delivery prices following a period of intense price competition, supported by regulatory measures against "involution" in the industry [20]. Aviation - Key performance indicators in the aviation sector are on the rise, with passenger volumes increasing and a low growth rate in supply, indicating a potential stabilization in revenue levels [21][74]. - The report recommends several airlines based on their performance metrics, including China Southern Airlines and Air China [21]. Logistics - The logistics sector shows a slight increase in cross-border transport volumes, with stable short-haul freight rates [22][87]. - The report highlights the potential for significant non-operating income for China National Foreign Trade Transportation Group in 2025, which could positively impact dividends [22].

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 7 月 13 日 情绪和流动性向好，短期继续看多 ——A 股趋势与风格定量观察 20250713 1. 当前市场观察 2. 市场最新观点 风险提示：择时和风格轮动模型结论基于合理假设前提下结合历史数据统计规 律推导而出，市场环境变化下可能导致出现模型失效风险。 任瞳 S1090519080004 rentong@cmschina.com.cn 王武蕾 S1090519080001 wangwulei@cmschina.com.cn 定期报告 一、A 股趋势观察 （一）A 股市场趋势和交易情绪观察 本周市场整体上涨。具体来看，万得全 A 指数上涨约 1.71%，上证 50、沪深 300、中证 1000 分别上涨约 1.02%、1.05%、2.42%，国证成长上涨约 0.90%，国 证价值上涨约 0.44%。 图表 1. 本周市场整体上涨 图表 2. 本周各风格均有所上涨 1.71% 1.02% 1.05% 2.42% 0.90% 0.44% 2.37% 0.98% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 本周各指数收益率 2.06% 1.0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals [15]. Core Insights - The global demand gap for corn and wheat continues to expand, while soybean supply remains ample [1]. - The USDA report indicates a downward revision in U.S. corn production expectations, but global production is still expected to be high, leading to an increased production gap for the 2025/26 season [2][3]. - For wheat, global production is projected to increase, but the demand gap is also expected to widen, with a notable increase in total consumption [8]. - The soybean market shows a slight increase in global production expectations, but supply remains relatively loose, with domestic demand in the U.S. improving [10][11]. Summary by Sections Corn - The USDA report revised the 2025/26 global corn production down by approximately 2.32 million tons to 1.264 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [2]. - The U.S. corn production is expected to decrease by 1.15 million bushels, with total demand projected to reach a record 1.276 billion tons, resulting in a production gap of 12.1 million tons [3][6]. - The global corn ending stocks-to-use ratio is expected to decline to 21.3%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [2][6]. Wheat - The global wheat production forecast for 2025/26 has been slightly revised down by 40,000 tons to 808 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1% [8][9]. - Total global wheat consumption is expected to rise by 800,000 tons to 811 million tons, leading to an expanded production gap of 2.07 million tons [8]. - The global wheat ending stocks-to-use ratio is projected to be 32.3%, down from the previous year [8][9]. Soybeans - The USDA report raised the global soybean production forecast by 860,000 tons to 428 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [10][12]. - U.S. soybean production is expected to decrease by 140,000 tons to 11.8 million tons, while domestic demand is projected to increase due to higher biodiesel usage [11][13]. - The global soybean ending stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be 29.7%, down from the previous year [10][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a favorable outlook for international corn and wheat prices, driven by expanding demand gaps and supply dynamics [15]. - The focus on food security is emphasized, with recommendations for companies involved in seed production and agricultural technology, particularly those benefiting from the commercialization of genetically modified corn [15].