证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 09 月 05 日 李奕熹 研究助理 liyixi@cmschina.com.cn 定期报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 全国碳市场纲领性文件落地，国际气候金融监管分化 ——ESG 动态跟踪月报（2025 年 8 月） 本报告重点关注 ESG 领域的监管动态、市场趋势与产品发行情况，系统梳理过去 一个月的重要信息，供投资者参考。 风险提示： ❑ 本报告基于公开资料整理，内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。ESG 相关政 策仍在持续完善过程中，标准体系和市场反应具有不确定性，相关投资产品可 能面临估值波动、流动性不足、主题偏离等风险，投资者需保持审慎判断。 任瞳 S1090519080004 rentong@cmschina.com.cn 麦元勋 S1090519090003 maiyuanxun@cmschina.com.cn ❑ 2025 年 8 月，全国碳市场建设迎来纲领性文件，明确提出到 2027 年基本覆盖 工业领域重点行业；央行等七部门推动金融支持新型工业化；外汇局启动绿色 外债试点。碳相关支持政策持续落地，电力计量新规夯实数据基础，碳计量中 心建设指导意见出台； ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.903 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.48%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 26 million yuan, down 77.58% year-on-year [1] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 846 million yuan, a decline of 14.18% year-on-year, and a net profit of 15 million yuan, down 83.98% year-on-year, but with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.01% [1] - The report highlights ongoing weakness in the spandex market and intensified competition in the aramid fiber sector, with a focus on the ramp-up of aramid separator production [1][6] Financial Performance - The company’s spandex segment generated revenue of 719 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with a gross margin of -6.47%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.08 percentage points [6] - The aramid segment achieved revenue of 1.170 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a gross margin of 32.63%, down 5.85 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 67 million, 206 million, and 229 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.08, 0.24, and 0.27 yuan [6][8] Market Dynamics - The spandex industry is experiencing an imbalance in supply and demand, with production capacity increasing to 1.43 million tons in the first half of 2025, while demand growth remains limited [6] - The aramid market is facing intensified competition due to new capacity releases and weak demand in traditional industrial sectors, leading to price declines and shrinking profit margins [6] - Long-term growth potential exists in the aramid materials market, driven by environmental regulations and the demand for lightweight automotive components [6] Future Outlook - The company is accelerating the industrialization of aramid-coated separators, with production trials expected to begin in the first half of 2025 [6] - The report anticipates a gradual release of capacity in the aramid-coated separator market, which could enhance the company's market position [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 38.151 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.03% [1] - The sales gross margin improved to 15.46%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.910 billion yuan, up 12.91% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.806 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 10.52% [1] - The company experienced a decline in Q2 profits due to impairment losses, with a net profit of 755.6 million yuan, down 3.79% year-on-year [7] - The company has seen significant growth in wind and hydropower orders, with a total of 65.485 billion yuan in new effective orders in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.78% [7] - The company is positioned as a leader in high-end energy equipment, with a focus on technological innovation and quality improvement in its orders [7] Financial Data and Valuation - The projected total revenue for 2025 is 76.665 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10% [3] - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is 4.034 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 38% [3] - The company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 15.8 for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical levels [3][20] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 9.5% in 2025, reflecting a recovery in profitability [20] Order and Revenue Growth - The company has seen a notable increase in revenue from coal power, nuclear power, and hydropower, with coal power revenue reaching 11.3 billion yuan, a 33% increase year-on-year [7] - Wind power revenue grew by 22% year-on-year to 8.14 billion yuan, with significant improvements in gross margin [7] - The company has maintained its leading market share in nuclear power despite a 40% decline in bidding volume [7] Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company reported a net operating cash flow of -556 million yuan in the first half of 2025, indicating challenges in cash generation [8] - The debt ratio increased to 71% in Q2 2025, reflecting a higher leverage position [10] - The company holds cash reserves of 31.259 billion yuan, providing a buffer for operational needs [10]

财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 6631 | 7092 | 6951 | 5263 | 5354 | | 同比增长 | 27% | 7% | -2% | -24% | 2% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 2274 | 2221 | 2416 | 2626 | 2703 | | 同比增长 | 15% | -2% | 9% | 9% | 3% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 1660 | 1669 | 1850 | 1884 | 1862 | | 同比增长 | 15% | 1% | 11% | 2% | -1% | | 每股收益(元) | 0.97 | 0.98 | 1.08 | 1.10 | 1.09 | | PE | 14.7 | 14.6 | 13.2 | 12.9 | 13.1 | | PB | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 皖通高速（600012.SH） Q2 ...

Economic Indicators - The official manufacturing PMI for August is 49.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from July[4] - Industrial value-added growth for August is projected at approximately 5.2% year-on-year[9] - Retail sales growth is expected to be around 4% year-on-year for August[9] Production and Investment - The production index rose to 50.8%, while new orders improved slightly to 49.5%[4] - Fixed asset investment growth is estimated at 2% year-on-year for August, with manufacturing investment at 6.4%[5] - The top 100 real estate companies' sales in August amounted to approximately 207.04 billion yuan, down 1.9% month-on-month and 17.6% year-on-year[8] Price Trends - CPI for August is expected to remain at 0.0% year-on-year, while PPI is projected to decline by 2.9% year-on-year[9][20] - The purchasing price index increased significantly to 53.3%, indicating rising costs in the manufacturing sector[4] Consumption and Services - August saw a strong performance in service consumption, with cinema box office revenues around 5.987 billion yuan and over 150 million attendees[7] - Passenger transport volumes in civil aviation and railways reached record highs for the same period, driven by summer travel[7] Risks and Outlook - The overall economic outlook remains stable compared to July, but the manufacturing sector has been in contraction for five consecutive months, indicating weak market demand[8] - Continued adjustments in the real estate market are expected to impact overall domestic demand significantly[8]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 09 月 05 日 北方导航（600435.SH） 业绩扭亏为盈，下游需求强力复苏 中游制造/军工 公司发布 2025 年半年报，报告期内公司收入 17.03 亿元，同比增长 481.19%； 归母净利润 1.16 亿元，同比增长 256.59%；扣非净利润 1.11 亿元，同比增长 229.47%。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 3565 | 2748 | 5198 | 6535 | 7832 | | 同比增长 | -7% | -23% | 89% | 26% | 20% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 273 | 82 | 427 | 562 | 680 | | 同比增长 | 8% | -70% | 423% | 32% | 21% | 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：13.9 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 1510 | | --- | --- | | 已 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Insights - The company experienced significant revenue growth, achieving 519 million yuan in revenue for the first half of 2025, a 688.61% increase year-over-year, with net profit reaching 53.04 million yuan, up 234.75% from the previous year [7]. - The growth is attributed to increased product deliveries, breakthroughs in the low-altitude sector, and expansion in military trade, with military trade revenue reaching 341 million yuan [7]. - The company is actively expanding its international market presence, particularly in defense radar systems, capitalizing on global demand amid complex geopolitical situations [7]. - The company is also focusing on research and development, with R&D expenses amounting to 47.96 million yuan, representing 9.24% of total revenue [7]. Financial Data and Valuation - The projected revenue for 2025-2027 is estimated at 1.234 billion yuan, 1.687 billion yuan, and 2.136 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 116 million yuan, 141 million yuan, and 164 million yuan [2][7]. - The company’s PE ratios for the same period are projected to be 96.0X, 78.7X, and 67.8X respectively [2][7]. - The company’s total assets are expected to grow from 6.054 billion yuan in 2025 to 10.157 billion yuan by 2027 [8]. Shareholder Information - The major shareholder is the Beijing Radio Measurement Research Institute, holding a 32.49% stake in the company [3]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a 151% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the benchmark index [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][4]. Core Insights - The lithium battery production is expected to grow by over 15% quarter-on-quarter by Q3 2025, driven by strong downstream demand [2]. - The lithium separator industry is anticipated to reach a price turning point due to recent agreements among companies to avoid below-cost sales and unnecessary capacity expansion [8][17]. - The head companies in the separator industry are experiencing tight capacity, with the top two companies operating at full capacity, leading to a balanced supply-demand situation [8][17]. - The global energy storage market is witnessing significant growth, with a 106% year-on-year increase in global energy storage cell shipments in the first half of 2025 [24]. - The report highlights the increasing performance requirements for separators, particularly in fast-charging applications and energy storage systems, which may lead to a higher market concentration [28]. Summary by Sections Industry Scale - The industry comprises 300 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 621.54 billion [4]. Key Companies and Financial Metrics - Key companies include Enjie Technology, Xingyuan Material, China National Materials, and Fospower Technology, with varying earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [4]. Separator Industry Dynamics - The separator industry is currently facing widespread losses, with only a few companies like Xingyuan Material remaining profitable [8]. - The industry has reached a consensus to avoid price wars and unnecessary capacity expansion, which is expected to stabilize prices [17]. Downstream Demand - The energy storage sector is experiencing unexpected demand growth, with significant increases in orders and shipments [24][25]. - The domestic market is transitioning from policy-driven to market-driven growth, enhancing the overall demand for energy storage solutions [25][26]. Performance Requirements and Innovations - The report notes that the demand for high-quality separators is increasing due to safety and performance requirements in fast-charging and energy storage applications [28]. - Companies are actively exploring new technologies and markets, such as solid-state batteries and semiconductor materials, to diversify their offerings and mitigate risks from slowing lithium battery demand [29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Zhongju Gaoxin (600872.SH) [2][4] Core Views - The company is under pressure but is expected to improve with new management reforms and increased mergers and acquisitions, leading to gradual recovery in the second half of the year [4][5] - The revenue and net profit for Q2 2025 showed a year-on-year decline of 7.21% and 34.59% respectively, indicating ongoing performance challenges, although the decline in revenue has narrowed [4][5] - The soy sauce business has shown significant improvement in Q2 2025, contributing positively to the overall performance [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.132 billion yuan, down 18.58% year-on-year, and a net profit of 257 million yuan, down 26.56% year-on-year [4][5] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.030 billion yuan, a decline of 9.11% year-on-year, and a net profit of 76 million yuan, down 31.57% year-on-year [4][5] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 39.39%, an increase of 3.22 percentage points year-on-year, driven by cost reductions and an increase in the proportion of soy sauce sales [4][5] Product Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, revenue from soy sauce, chicken essence, cooking oil, and other products were 650 million, 126 million, 58 million, and 132 million yuan respectively, with soy sauce showing a year-on-year increase of 6.39% [4][5] - The company has increased its distributor count to 2,799, up by 127 from Q1 2025, indicating a focus on expanding distribution channels [4][5] Future Outlook - The company plans to accelerate the expansion of new channels and improve management to enhance performance in the second half of 2025 [4][5] - The new management team, led by the newly appointed chairman, is expected to drive reforms and return the company to a growth trajectory [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Insights - The company experienced a year-on-year decline in revenue and net profit of 6.95% and 16.37% respectively in the first half of 2025, which aligns with market expectations. Despite challenges in the external environment, the company has shown improvement in core operating profit margins and cash flow [1][4]. - The company has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 and 2026 to 1.04 and 1.17 respectively, with a corresponding valuation of 13 times for 2025 [1][4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for H1 2025 was 415.67 billion, down 6.95% year-on-year, while net profit was 20.46 billion, down 16.37% year-on-year. The decline was primarily due to an oversupply of raw milk and slower-than-expected demand recovery [3][4]. - The liquid milk segment saw a revenue decline of 11.22% to 321.92 billion, while other segments like ice cream and cheese reported growth of 15.04% and 12.28% respectively [3][4]. - The overall gross margin improved to 41.7%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from lower raw milk prices [3][4]. - The operating profit margin improved to 8.5%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting effective operational management [3][4]. Future Outlook - The company plans to launch over 100 new products to meet diverse consumer needs and is focusing on brand innovation to enhance market presence [3][4]. - The company has proactively adjusted prices for its ambient milk products to capture market share amid uncertain demand conditions [3][4].