事件：公司发布 2025 年半年度业绩预告，预计 25H1 实现营业收入 36～39 亿 元，同比+47%～+59%；归母净利润 3.60～4.20 亿元，同比+140%～+180%； 剔除股份支付费用的扣非归母净利润为 3.89~4.49 亿元，同比+88%～+118%。 我们点评如下： 增持（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：97.09 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 402 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 323 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 39.0 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 31.4 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 11.1 | | ROE（TTM） | 12.8 | | 资产负债率 | 46.2% | | 主要股东 | 徐辰 | | 主要股东持股比例 | 13.64% | 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 7 35 90 相对表现 3 29 75 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -50 0 50 100 150 Jul/24 Nov/24 Mar/25 Jun/25 (%) 思特威 沪深300 相关报告 证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 202 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 07 月 16 日 安踏体育（02020.HK） 25Q2 主品牌增速环比放缓，重点提升渠道运营效率 消费品/轻工纺服 25Q2 安踏主品牌流水低单位数增长，FILA 中单位数增长，其他品牌增长 50%-55%，公司综合折扣加深，库存相对良性；公司将持续拓展安踏主品牌新 业态，优化全渠道运营，加速 FILA 产品推新，预计 25-27 年公司净利润 134.3 亿元、155.1 亿元、171.5 亿元，同比增速为-14%、15%、11%，剔除 amer 带来一次性利得，净利润同比增速为 13%、15%、11%。当前市值对应 25PE18X、 26PE15X，维持强烈推荐评级。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：88.7 港元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 2807 | | --- | --- | | 香港股（百万股） | 2807 | | 总市值（十亿港元） | 249.0 | | 香港股市值（十亿港元） | 249.0 | | 每股净资产（港元） | 22.0 | | ROE（TTM） | 25.3 | | 资产负债率 | 40.7% | | 主 ...

Market Overview - The current market is experiencing a positive feedback loop of incremental capital inflow, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the previously mentioned resistance level of 3450 points, indicating a shift towards a bull market phase [5][10]. - Financing funds are showing a continuous net inflow, particularly favoring technology and growth sectors, with a financing balance reaching 1.86 trillion yuan [10][11]. - Industry and thematic ETFs are increasingly popular, reflecting a significant trend in the market this year, with continuous net inflows observed [12][13]. Financing and Capital Flow - The net inflow of financing funds amounted to 225.35 billion yuan, with a notable preference for sectors such as automotive, pharmaceuticals, and computing [10][11]. - The total net inflow for ETFs was 8.28 billion yuan, indicating a growing interest in these investment vehicles [4][36]. - The market is witnessing a slight net inflow of capital, with the financing balance increasing and the net buying amount for financing funds expanding significantly [5][36]. Northbound Capital - Northbound capital continued its net inflow trend in the second quarter, with an estimated net inflow of 59.1 billion yuan, primarily directed towards sectors like semiconductors, batteries, and securities [19][23]. - As of the end of June, northbound capital held a total of 2.29 trillion yuan in A-shares, reflecting a stable investment interest from foreign investors [19][23]. Market Sentiment and Activity - Market sentiment has improved, with the VIX index declining, indicating a rise in risk appetite among investors [47]. - The trading activity of financing funds has increased, with the proportion of financing transactions in the A-share market rising to 10.1% [45][46]. - The focus of trading has shifted towards essential consumer goods, finance, and the CSI 500 index, with significant trading volumes observed in these sectors [50].

社零数据点评 6 月社零同比+4.8%，商品零售保持较强韧性 消费品/商业 2025 年 6 月社会消费品零售总额为 42287 亿元，当月同比+4.8%；实物商品网 上零售额当月同比+4.7%，5-6 月电商合计同比+6.4%。6 月大促错期影响社零 及电商大盘增速有所回落，商品零售保持较强韧性。重点关注受益外卖大战的 茶饮公司，以及质地好、估值低的消费互联网龙头公司。 分品类看，家电电脑等国补类目仍保持较快增速领跑行业，手机通讯类增速放 缓。分品类来看，6 月必选品类中粮油食品、日用品类分别同比+8.7%、 +7.8%，增速高于社零大盘，维持稳健增长；可选品类中，国补类目继续保 持增速领先。其中家电及音像器材同比+32,4%、文化办公用品类（含电脑） 同比+24.4%，增速环比略有回落但仍远高于社零大盘；通讯器材类同比 +13.9%，增速相对放缓。 投资建议：重点关注受益外卖大战的茶饮公司，以及质地好、估值低的消费互 联网龙头公司。 风险提示：宏观经济风险；行业竞争加剧。 证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 07 月 15 日 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | 占比% | | | --- | -- ...

基金运行稳健，"三医"协同发展成效显著 2024 年医保基金数据点评 消费品/生物医药 事件： 证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2025 年 07 月 15 日 图 1：2024 全国基本医保收支及结余情况（单位：亿元） 资料来源：国家医保局、招商证券 推荐（维持） 行业规模 7 月 14 日，国家医保局公布 2024 年全国医疗保障事业发展统计公报，2024 年 医保基金运行安全稳健，管理服务提质增效。2024 年基金合计参保人数有所下 降，但基金总收入和基金总支出均保持同比增长趋势，截至 2024 年底职工医保 和城乡居民医保分别实现 4.49 万亿和 8183 亿元累计结余，医保基金运行整体 稳健，"三医"协同发展和治理成效显著。 点评： 2024年医保数据分析：1）从参保人数看，2024年全国基本医保参保人数为13.27 亿人，参保覆盖面继续稳定在 95%以上；2）从收支情况看，2024 年全国基本 医疗保险基金（含生育保险）总收入 3.49 万亿元，同比增长 4.2%；总支出 2.98 万亿元。同比增长 5.5%，当期支出率为 85.3%；2024 年基金结余 5149 亿元， 累计结余 5.31 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for Li Ning, with a current stock price of 16.24 HKD and a corresponding PE of 15.5X for 2025 [2][3]. Core Insights - Li Ning's overall revenue growth in Q2 2025 is low single-digit, with pressure on discounts due to weak consumer demand and intensified market competition. The management has kept the revenue guidance for 2025 flat, but profitability is expected to decline. The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is 2.38 billion, 2.53 billion, and 2.72 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of -21%, 7%, and 7% respectively [1][2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The expected revenue for Li Ning for 2025-2027 is 28.74 billion, 29.96 billion, and 31.11 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 0%, 4%, and 4% [2][8]. - The projected net profit for the same period is 2.38 billion, 2.53 billion, and 2.72 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of -21%, 7%, and 7% [2][8]. Sales Performance - In Q2 2025, the revenue growth by category shows high single-digit growth in running and fitness, flat performance in sports lifestyle, and a 20% decline in basketball. Outdoor and smaller categories are performing well [1][7]. - The sales performance by channel indicates that lower-tier markets are outperforming higher-tier markets, with outlet stores performing better than full-price stores [1][7]. Financial Metrics - The total market capitalization of Li Ning is 42 billion HKD, with a total share capital of 2,585 million shares and a net asset value per share of 10.1 HKD [3]. - The return on equity (ROE) is reported at 11.5%, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 26.9% [3][11]. Inventory and Discount Pressure - Due to the slowdown in terminal revenue growth and the need for inventory clearance, there is significant discount pressure in Q2 2025, although inventory levels are currently considered healthy [7][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the media and internet industry, particularly highlighting leading companies in various segments such as gaming, IP, and live streaming [1]. Core Insights - The media sector has seen a 2.39% increase over the past week, ranking 6th among all industries, and a year-to-date increase of 13.62%, ranking 3rd overall. This growth is attributed to policy support for sub-industries like gaming and a shift in market perception towards "emerging consumption" [1]. - The report emphasizes the long-term growth potential of cultural, sports, gaming, and live streaming sectors as part of China's consumption upgrade, driven by rising GDP per capita [1]. - The gaming industry is currently valued at approximately 17 times earnings, indicating a reasonable valuation with safety margins despite multiple favorable factors such as policy support and accelerated overseas expansion [1]. Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The media industry index increased by 2.39% from June 30 to July 6, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.40% [10]. - The top-performing stocks in the media sector during this period included Giant Network with a 17.42% increase and other companies like Jibite and 37 Interactive Entertainment [12][13]. Key Data in Film and Gaming Industries - The top films by box office for the week included "Jurassic World: Rebirth" with a box office of 298.34 million and "Detective Conan: The One-Eyed Phantom" with 125.00 million [18]. - In the gaming sector, the top mobile games included "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite," both published by Tencent, dominating the iOS sales rankings [31]. Television and Streaming Insights - The highest-rated TV drama was "Jinxiu Fanghua" with a rating of 2.075% on Hunan TV, while the top web dramas included "In the Name of Law" and "Jinxiu Fanghua" [22][24]. - The top variety show was "Keep Running Season 9," leading the ratings with a broadcast index of 79.4 [28]. Emerging Consumption Trends - The report identifies emerging consumption as a new market focus, with significant user engagement and consumption potential observed in sectors like gaming, trendy IPs, music, and sports events [1]. - The report suggests a 2-3 year investment horizon for quality leading companies in these sectors, emphasizing the importance of content creativity and operational capabilities [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company's Q2 2025 profit is expected to show significant improvement, with a projected net profit of 0.44-0.58 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 79%-135.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 72.8%-127.4% [1][7]. - The demand for high-end tri-temperature sorting machines continues to grow, benefiting from the marginal recovery in the downstream packaging and testing industry [7]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 6.77 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 1.94 billion yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 27.2 [7]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to increase from 347 million yuan in 2023 to 1.172 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29% [2][9]. - The company's net profit is expected to grow from 85 million yuan in 2023 to 402 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 41% [2][9]. - The PE ratio is forecasted to decrease from 62.1 in 2023 to 13.1 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics over time [2][10]. Performance Metrics - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 6.6% in the most recent period to 20.5% by 2027 [3][10]. - The asset-liability ratio is expected to remain stable, increasing slightly from 19.0% in 2023 to 20.0% in 2026 and 2027 [3][10]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to stabilize around 49% to 51% over the forecast period [10]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company has successfully expanded its product matrix, focusing on IGBT and advanced packaging, while also investing in four equipment companies to ensure long-term growth [7]. - The EXCEED-9000 series tri-temperature sorting machine is expected to account for over 25% of revenue in 2024, indicating strong market demand [7]. - The report highlights the company's strategic positioning in high-end testing environments, particularly for automotive-grade chips [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the industry, highlighting the potential for significant growth in the adoption of unmanned forklifts as part of the smart logistics trend [6]. Core Insights - The rise of SLAM natural navigation technology is driving the transition from simple automation to autonomous intelligence in on-site logistics, with unmanned forklifts representing a leading product in this commercial evolution [1][2]. - The penetration rate of unmanned forklifts in traditional forklift markets is currently low at 1.66%, indicating substantial room for growth and replacement opportunities [2][42]. - The industry is characterized by a diverse competitive landscape, with major players including traditional forklift manufacturers and AGV/AMR companies, leading to a relatively fragmented market [2][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Current Development of Unmanned Forklifts - Unmanned forklifts are a fusion of forklift and AGV technologies, evolving from basic automated guided vehicles to more intelligent autonomous mobile robots (AMR) [1][13]. - The industry has a rich history of over 70 years, with significant advancements in navigation technology since 2010 [1][27]. 2. Factors Driving Penetration of Unmanned Forklifts - Economic benefits, technological advancements, and supportive policies are the three main drivers for the rapid increase in the penetration rate of unmanned forklifts [2][50]. - The sales volume of unmanned forklifts in China surged from 300 units in 2015 to 19,500 units in 2023, with a CAGR of 68.51% [2][38]. 3. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape features both traditional forklift companies and AGV/AMR firms, with a market concentration that remains relatively low [2][6]. - Key players include Anhui Heli, Hangcha Group, and Zhongli Group among traditional manufacturers, and Hikvision Robotics and Xian Gong Intelligent among AGV/AMR leaders [2][6]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on traditional forklift leaders and emerging AGV/AMR companies as potential investment opportunities, given the expected rise in unmanned forklift adoption [6][2].

证券研究报告 | 债券专题报告 2025 年 07 月 15 日 单周期市场结构基础理论 ——SMC 技术面分析框架详解（一） SMC 是近年来新兴的技术面分析体系，我们将开启专题系列报告详解这一体 系。SMC 体系包括五个模块，第一部分是市场结构部分，用于判断市场趋势方 向。本文我们将详细介绍单周期市场结构基础理论。 一、前言：SMC 体系介绍 SMC（Smart Money Concepts，聪明钱理论）是近年来新兴的一套完整的、系 统化的技术面分析和交易方法论，在 2020 年后快速流行开来。SMC 的基础思 想是，市场被一批"聪明钱"主导，因而理解和跟随"聪明钱"的交易行为，能 持续进行高胜率或高盈亏比的交易，从而长期稳定获利。 SMC 体系主要包括四个优势：第一，SMC 有完整的理论体系，有逻辑严谨清晰 的分析框架。第二，SMC 不依赖技术指标，直接对 K 线进行分析，即"裸 K 分 析"。第三，SMC 主观成分相对少、规则化程度高。第四，SMC 有完整的交易 系统，即明确的入场、出场、目标框架。 SMC 体系大体包括五个模块：市场结构、机构供需、订单流、流动性、交易策 略。其中，第一部分市场结构是 ...