Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the construction industry, indicating a positive outlook for the industry's fundamentals and an expectation that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The construction industry's PMI for August is reported at 49.1, reflecting a significant decline of 1.5 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a downward trend in industry sentiment [1]. - The construction PMI has been on a downward trajectory since May 2024, falling below the threshold of 50 in November, with a slight recovery in December and minor increases in February and June 2025, before dropping again in August to the lowest level since 2019 [1]. - Key sub-indices of the construction PMI include new orders at 40.6, business activity expectations at 51.7, input prices at 54.6, sales prices at 49.7, and employment index at 43.6, highlighting a persistent weakness in new orders despite stable business activity expectations [1]. Industry Scale - The construction industry comprises 163 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 1,894.2 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 1,830.6 billion [5]. Industry Index Performance - The absolute performance of the industry index over the past month, six months, and twelve months is reported at 2.1%, 7.2%, and 29.7% respectively, while the relative performance shows declines of -8.9%, -9.1%, and -6.5% [6].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Pring Cycle - **Model Construction Idea**: The Pring Cycle is an upgraded version of the Merrill Clock, incorporating financial data to enhance the predictive accuracy of asset allocation recommendations. It defines financial indicators as leading indicators, real economy indicators as coincident indicators, and price indicators as lagging indicators. These three groups of indicators form six economic states, each corresponding to specific asset allocation strategies [9][10][11] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Leading indicators include M2 growth and new social financing, filtered for cyclical factors to observe trend components [14] 2. Coincident indicators include real estate investment and export growth, also filtered for cyclical factors [14][22] 3. Lagging indicators include CPI and PPI growth, filtered similarly [14][28] 4. The model identifies the current economic state based on the trends of these indicators. For example, the "Recovery" state is characterized by rising leading indicators, stable coincident indicators, and declining lagging indicators [10][11] - **Model Evaluation**: The model improves upon the Merrill Clock by incorporating financial data, but it cannot fully capture real economic states during extraordinary events [13] 2. A-Share Pricing Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: The pricing framework integrates short-term fundamentals, long-term confidence, and required return rates to determine the reasonable valuation range of A-shares. It emphasizes the PB-ROE relationship for valuation assessment [52][56] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Decompose stock returns into components: dividend yield, net asset growth, and valuation changes [56] 2. Use a two-stage DDM model to calculate reasonable PB values: $$PB_{current} = ROE_1 \times d_1 \times \sum_{t=1}^{T} \frac{(1+g_1)^{t-1}}{(1+R_f+R_p)^t}$$ $$PB_{stable} = \frac{ROE_2 \times d_2}{1+R_f+R_p-g_2} \times \frac{(1+g_1)^T}{(1+R_f+R_p)^T}$$ where \(ROE_1\) and \(ROE_2\) are the return on equity for the current and stable growth phases, \(d_1\) and \(d_2\) are dividend payout ratios, \(g_1\) and \(g_2\) are growth rates, and \(R_f+R_p\) is the required return rate [56][57] 3. Historical calibration suggests an 11-year duration for the first growth phase, with ROE assumptions adjusted for optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic scenarios [58] - **Model Evaluation**: The framework effectively captures valuation dynamics, but short-term ROE fluctuations introduce uncertainty [56][58] 3. Interest Rate Pricing Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: A three-factor model for long-term government bond yields, incorporating policy rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations [59] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Represent policy rates using one-year interbank CD rates, inflation expectations using CPI growth, and growth expectations using PMI levels [59] 2. Regression analysis reveals the relative importance of these factors: monetary policy > inflation expectations > growth expectations [62][63] 3. Additional analysis links bond yields to housing prices, reflecting cyclical economic drivers [67][69] - **Model Evaluation**: The model highlights the dominant role of monetary policy but acknowledges limitations in capturing short-term market dynamics [63][67] 4. Gold Pricing Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: Gold pricing is influenced by its commodity, financial, and monetary attributes, with monetary factors being the most consistent driver [74][75] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Historical analysis identifies three gold bull markets driven by different factors: inflation and oil prices (1971-1980), financial crises and low real rates (2001-2011), and de-globalization and central bank purchases (2019-present) [74] 2. Introduce a valuation metric: - Pre-2022: Global gold reserves × gold price / US M2 - Post-2023: Global gold reserves × gold price / weighted M2 of reserve currency countries (USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, RMB) [80] - **Model Evaluation**: The framework effectively captures long-term trends but faces challenges in predicting short-term price movements [78][80] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Pring Cycle - Current state: Recovery phase, favoring equity assets [35] 2. A-Share Pricing Framework - Reasonable PB range for CSI 800: 1.36-1.55 - Expected annual return: 5%-9% [58][59] 3. Interest Rate Pricing Framework - Predicted 10-year government bond yield: 1.36%-1.51% - Yield corridor: ±1.5 standard deviations around the central estimate [72][73] 4. Gold Pricing Framework - Current valuation percentile: 39% (10% below the median) - Long-term upward potential remains [80][82] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Style Factors - **Value Style**: - ROE: 9.14% - PB range: 0.9-0.95 - Expected return: 6%-8% [96][100] - **Growth Style**: - ROE: 12.48% - PB range: 1.69-3.24 - Expected return: -7%-13% [103][108] - **Small-Cap Style**: - ROE: 5.99% - PB range: 0.65-1.82 - Expected return: Low [111][116] - **Large-Cap Style**: - ROE: 10.21% - PB range: 0.92-1 - Expected return: 0%-2% [119][123] - **Quality Style**: - ROE: 14.23% - PB range: 2.34-5.35 - Expected return: 8%-39% [128][131] - **Dividend Style**: - ROE: 9.09% - PB range: 0.83-0.87 - Expected return: 11%-12% [134][138] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Value Style - Historical PB-ROE alignment indicates moderate valuation [100][102] 2. Growth Style - High ROE volatility leads to wide valuation ranges [108][110] 3. Small-Cap Style - Valuation driven more by liquidity than fundamentals [113][117] 4. Large-Cap Style - Valuation closely tied to fundamentals, with limited upside [123][127] 5. Quality Style - Significant valuation recovery potential [131][133] 6. Dividend Style - Stable valuation with moderate upside [138][140]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][5]. Core Insights - The company achieved profitability in H1 2025, with a revenue of 3.691 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.74%, and a net profit of 503 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [1][5]. - The launch of new games such as "Yihuan" and "Zhuxian 2" is expected to contribute significantly to future revenue growth [5]. - The esports business continues to grow steadily, supported by high-quality and frequent events, contributing to stable performance [5]. - The film and television segment has adopted a quality-over-quantity strategy, achieving a revenue of 767 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 756.35% [5]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 6.852 billion, 9.044 billion, and 9.858 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 793 million, 1.508 billion, and 1.786 billion yuan [5][6]. Financial Data Summary - In H1 2025, the gaming business generated 2.906 billion yuan in revenue, a 9.67% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 504 million yuan [5]. - The company’s total market capitalization is 32.3 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 30.5 billion yuan [2]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 11.730 billion yuan by 2025, with total liabilities of 4.607 billion yuan [8][9]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from -8.8% in the trailing twelve months to 11.6% in 2025 [2][10].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 09 月 02 日 巨人网络（002558.SZ） 收入利润双增长，老游戏长青后续储备新品丰富 TMT 及中小盘/传媒 公司发布 2025 年中报，上半年营业收入 16.62 亿元，同比增长 16.47%；归母 净利润 7.77 亿元，同比增长 8.27%；二季度营业收入 9.38 亿元，同比增长 28.42%；归母净利润 4.29 亿元，同比增长 17.49%。每 10 股派发现金红利人 民币 1.50 元。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：31.23 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 1935 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 1935 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 60.4 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 60.4 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 7.3 | | ROE（TTM） | 10.6 | | 资产负债率 | 13.4% | | 主要股东 上海巨人投资管理有限公司 | | | 主要股东持股比例 | 29.16% | 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 32 105 245 相对表现 20 89 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company's revenue has been under pressure due to adjustments in the digital marketing segment, with a significant year-on-year decline of 24.64% in the first half of 2025 [7]. - The gaming business remains resilient, with a slight revenue decline of 6% year-on-year, indicating strong player engagement [7]. - The company is strategically investing in the collectible card market, particularly focusing on sports cards, to diversify its entertainment offerings [7]. - Future revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 33.86 billion, 36.40 billion, and 38.47 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 5.54 billion, 6.35 billion, and 6.97 billion [7]. Financial Data Summary - The company reported total revenue of 14.38 billion in the first half of 2025, with a net profit of 2.56 billion [1][7]. - The digital marketing segment's revenue fell to 5.2 billion, accounting for 36% of total revenue, down from 46% in the previous year [7]. - The gaming segment's revenue increased its share to 33% of total revenue, while the card business accounted for 30% [7]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.33, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 21.4 [2][10]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price is 28.41 yuan, with a market capitalization of 11.9 billion [3]. - The company has a return on equity (ROE) of 14.2% and a debt-to-asset ratio of 28.2% [3][10]. - The estimated price-to-book (PB) ratio for 2025 is 2.9, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical levels [2][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for leading companies in the liquor sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, while suggesting a hold for Yingjia Gongjiu and Jinhuijiu [10][9]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is undergoing a significant clearing phase due to the impact of the "ban on alcohol" policy, with second and third-tier companies facing substantial challenges, while leading firms show resilience [1][9]. - The report anticipates that the financial statements of leading liquor companies will signal an industry turning point, potentially reshaping market expectations and indicating a gradual emergence of the industry bottom [9][1]. - The demand for liquor is expected to continue recovering, driven by a positive price index in 2026, which may lead to inflation and increased corporate profitability [1][9]. Revenue and Net Profit - In Q2 2025, the liquor industry reported revenues of 881 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.0%, and a net profit of 312 billion yuan, down 7.5% [2][13]. - For the first half of 2025, the industry generated revenues of 2,415 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year decline of 0.9% in revenue and 1.2% in net profit [2][13]. - Excluding Moutai, the industry's revenue in Q2 2025 was 484 billion yuan, reflecting a more significant decline of 13.1% [2][13]. Profitability - The overall gross margin of the liquor sector is under pressure due to declining prices and structural changes, with high-end liquor experiencing a slight decrease in gross margin [4][28]. - Many companies have increased their expense ratios to cope with price declines and intensified competition, although some have managed to reduce costs through digitalization and refined channel management [4][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on strong leading companies and those that have cleared their market burdens first, such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao, while also monitoring companies like Yingjia Gongjiu and Jinhuijiu for potential growth contributions in the second half of 2025 [9][10]. - The anticipated recovery in liquor demand and the potential for improved profitability in 2026 present a favorable investment landscape for the sector [9][1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][10]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated revenue and profit growth, with a total revenue of 24.855 billion and a net profit of 2.765 billion in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.3% and 20.84% respectively [1][10]. - The company's operating cash flow has significantly improved, reaching 1.752 billion, a year-on-year increase of 112.36% [2][10]. - The company is expected to benefit from a structural upgrade in the domestic market, with projected revenues of 53.031 billion, 62.521 billion, and 73.788 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a growth rate of 17%, 18%, and 18% [9][10]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 28.15% and a net margin of 11.67%, with improvements in cost control and business structure optimization [2][10]. - The company’s traditional business segments, including cranes and concrete machinery, reported revenues of 8.374 billion and 4.869 billion, with year-on-year growth of 1.24% and 15.66% respectively [7][10]. - The company’s international business saw revenues of 13.815 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.66%, with overseas revenue accounting for 55.58% of total revenue [7][10]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.57, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 13.0 [9][17]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase to 8.4% in 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 49.7% [17][10]. - The company plans to distribute a mid-term dividend of 2 yuan for every 10 shares, reflecting a commitment to shareholder value [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated significant results in high-quality development, with a notable increase in revenue and profit margins. The first half of 2025 saw total revenue of 54.808 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.358 billion yuan, up 16.63% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is benefiting from both domestic and international demand, with a strong performance in the excavator industry and a diversified product range. The overall market structure shows a positive trend in both domestic and overseas sales [2][9]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 22.03% and a net margin of 8.06%, reflecting improvements of 0.7 percentage points and 0.58 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [2]. - Operating cash flow increased significantly by 118.35% year-on-year, reaching 3.725 billion yuan, indicating effective cash management and improved collection processes [2]. - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 102.608 billion yuan in 2025 to 132.285 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits expected to rise from 8.048 billion yuan to 13.286 billion yuan during the same period [8][9]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has established itself as a leading player in the engineering machinery sector, benefiting from a comprehensive product portfolio and strong market presence. It has achieved a global market share of 5.52%, with significant growth in both domestic and international sales [9]. - The company has completed eight smart factories and over 30 production line upgrades, enhancing production efficiency and reducing costs [2][9]. Shareholder Returns - The company has prioritized shareholder returns, completing a dividend distribution of 2.057 billion yuan for the 2024 fiscal year and initiating a share buyback program [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guotou Electric Power is maintained at "Add" [3] Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue but demonstrated strong resilience in performance, with a year-on-year revenue of 25.697 billion yuan, down 5.18%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.795 billion yuan, up 1.36% [1][6] - The hydropower segment saw a significant increase in generation, with a total of 47.782 billion kWh, up 10.30% year-on-year, while thermal power generation decreased by 21.10% [6] - The company is focusing on expanding its clean energy capacity, aiming for a 72% share of clean energy installations by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with current clean energy installations at 71.84% [6] Financial Data and Valuation - The projected total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 57.508 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1% [2] - The estimated net profit for 2025 is projected to be 7.160 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8% [2] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 15.8, with a projected PE of 15.2 for 2026 and 14.0 for 2027 [2][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2.578 billion with a year-on-year growth of 0.89% and a net profit of 950 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.41% [1]. - The company is launching multiple new IP products and has initiated a share buyback program, indicating long-term confidence in its growth prospects [1][2]. - The company is focusing on consolidating its classic game categories while also expanding into new IPs, which is expected to drive overall growth [2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.578 billion, with a net profit of 950 million, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 939 million, showing growth rates of 0.89%, 17.41%, and 17.18% respectively [1]. - In the second quarter of 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 1.225 billion, a decline of 1.8% year-on-year, but a net profit of 432 million, which is a year-on-year increase of 12.8% [1]. - The company expects revenues of 6.167 billion, 7.000 billion, and 7.805 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.193 billion, 2.521 billion, and 2.855 billion [7][8]. Product Development and Market Strategy - The company has a rich pipeline of products, with several new games set to launch in the second half of the year and early next year, including titles based on popular IPs [2][6]. - The company is also expanding its overseas market presence, with significant revenue growth in international markets, particularly in RPG and SLG genres [2]. - Collaborations with other companies for game development and community building around its IPs are also in place, enhancing its market strategy [6][7].