Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company is acquiring a 99.23% stake in Guozi Robotics for 398 million yuan, which will enhance its smart logistics capabilities without impacting its financial position [1] - The company has a strong historical performance in the intelligent logistics sector, being a leader in the domestic market with over 1,000 implemented projects [5] - The forklift industry is showing signs of recovery, with a 9.33% year-on-year increase in sales from January to May 2025, indicating a stable upward trend in the company's core business [5] - The acquisition is expected to strengthen the company's competitive edge in smart logistics and reshape the industry landscape [5] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 177.44 billion, 198.54 billion, and 223.85 billion yuan, with net profits of 22.36 billion, 24.95 billion, and 27.82 billion yuan respectively [5] Financial Data Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 16.27 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13% [7] - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 1.72 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a 74% increase from the previous year [14] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 19.6% [2] - The asset-liability ratio is at 35% [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.71 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12.3 [7][14]

Group 1: Tax System Reform and Economic Impact - The VAT has become the largest tax type in China, maintaining a stable share of 35-40% since 2016, with a compound growth rate of -7.4% in 2022, 4.5% in 2023, and 17.0% in 2024, indicating a significant acceleration in growth[3] - In 2024, VAT revenue accounted for 49.5% of local fiscal revenue, the highest in history, reflecting the declining support of land finance for local governments[3] - The average share of VAT revenue in local fiscal income from 2016 to 2022 was 45.3%, increasing to over 49% from 2023, coinciding with a period of negative domestic price levels[3] Group 2: Price Control and Market Dynamics - The current fiscal and tax system may create unreasonable incentives for local governments to stimulate production, which could hinder the establishment of a unified national market[3] - Shifting the consumption tax collection point from production to sales could enhance local governments' focus on consumption, as local sales would directly impact their tax revenue[3] - Optimizing the fiscal and tax system can reduce local governments' supply impulses and increase their emphasis on consumption, potentially alleviating price pressures from both supply and demand sides[3] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and potential global recession alongside unexpected monetary policies from major economies[3]

敬请阅读末页的重要说明 证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 7 月 14 日 多维度掘金红利资产，深度捕捉高股息机遇 ——华富新华中诚信红利价值指数基金投资价值分析 在当前低利率的环境下，红利资产收益相对较高且稳定，成为投资者关注的重 点。政策引导中长期资金入市，进一步提高了红利资产长期配置需求。华富新 华中诚信红利价值指数基金（A 份额：023746；C 份额：023747）精选具有 高股息、低估值、低波动、低 beta、低换手的优质资产，值得投资者在当前 市场环境下重点关注。 风险提示：本报告仅作为投资参考，基金产品过往业绩并不预示其未来表现， 亦不构成投资收益的保证或投资建议，新发基金无历史业绩可参考。 任瞳 S1090519080004 rentong@cmschina.com.cn 刘凯 S1090524120001 liukai11@ cmschina.com.cn 杨航 S1090523010004 yanghang4@cmschina.com.cn 专题报告 ❑ 红利策略具有"类债券"属性，在低利率期间红利策略的性价比相对较 高。当前红利板块的股息率相对于 10 年期国债的收益率仍处于历 ...

Group 1: Core Views - The report suggests that the food and beverage industry is expected to see a valuation recovery as market sentiment improves, with a focus on low-priced leading companies in the liquor sector and structural opportunities in the food sector [2][7][10]. Group 2: Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is experiencing a phase of demand decline due to seasonal factors and regulatory impacts, leading to pressure on high-end liquor prices, while mass consumption remains stable [7][13]. - Major companies like Moutai are expected to maintain their performance due to strong brand positioning, while others are entering an adjustment phase, with varying adjustment speeds among companies [7][14]. - Q2 performance forecasts for major liquor companies indicate a range of revenue and profit changes, with Moutai expected to see a 9% increase in both revenue and profit [14][15][16]. Group 3: Food Sector - The food sector shows signs of recovery, with segments like beverages, snacks, and pet food experiencing upward trends, while beer and restaurant supply chains face structural challenges [21][24]. - The beverage industry remains vibrant with new product launches and a clear trend towards reduced sugar options, while competition intensifies [24][30]. - Dairy products are seeing mixed performance, with some segments like low-temperature dairy and cheese growing, while others face challenges [24][33]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading liquor companies with a safety margin for investment, as well as food companies that are expected to exceed mid-year performance expectations [10][28]. - Specific companies highlighted for potential investment include Nongfu Spring, Uni-President China, and Tianwei Foods, among others [10][28].

证券研究报告 | 基金研究（私募） 2025 年 7 月 13 日 公私募量化基金全解析 ❑ 量化策略基本特点：量化投资策略基于大量历史数据，通过数据挖掘、统计分析、 数学建模等方法及算法程序发现价格变化规律，挖掘交易机会，制定及执行投资 策略。目前使用最为广泛的量化选股模型是多因子模型，主要因子包括量价因子、 基本面因子和另类因子。从投资特征上看，量化策略系统性特征较强，广泛挖掘 投资机会；严格执行模型结果，策略纪律性强。与主观策略通过深度挖掘个股 Alpha 取胜不同，量化策略主要依靠研究广度实现概率取胜。 ❑ 国内量化投资发展历程： ❑ 公私募量化基金行业发展现状： ❑ 公私募股票量化基金运作特征及绩效表现： 徐燕红 S1090524120003 xuyanhong@cmschina.com.cn 李巧宾 S1090524070011 liqiaobin@cmschina.com.cn 邓畅 S1090525070004 dengchang1@cmschina.com.cn 徐肖雅 研究助理 xuxiaoya@cmschina.com.cn 专题报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ➢ 公募量化：公募量化策略始 ...

中船系公司 Q2 业绩预告超预期，6 月新船订单环比增长 船舶行业系列十一 中游制造/机械 1）25H1 业绩预告归母净利润 15–18 亿元，同比增长 182%–238% 事件： 近期，中船系公司发布 2025H1 业绩预告： 中国船舶： 1）25H1 业绩预告归母净利润 28–31 亿元，同比增长 98%–119%。 2）单 Q2，公司预计实现归母净利润 16.73-19.73 亿元，同比增长 66%到 95%。 中国重工： 2）单 Q2，公司预计实现归母净利润 9.8-12.8 亿元，同比增长 147%到 222%。 中国动力： 1）25H1 业绩预告归母净利润 8-11.5 亿元，同比增长 68%–142% 2）单 Q2，公司预计实现归母净利润 4-7.5 亿元，同比增长 3%到 94%。 评论： 1、中国船舶等公司业绩显著超预期 高价订单的密集交付+原材料成本剪刀差的逻辑，均为中船系的造船股贡献了显 著的利润弹性。考虑到当前中国船舶的在手订单依然饱和，高价订单正处于交 付前段，后续利润弹性有望逐步放大。 此外，替代燃料的逻辑已得到彻底夯实：2025 年 1-6 月全球替代燃料船舶订 单为 151 艘 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 07 月 13 日 俄美关系缓和再起波折？ ——国际时政周评 上周回顾：美国对多国宣布 8 月 1 日起加征关税；特朗普宣布将通过北约援 乌；欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩讲话。 未来一周：美国贸易谈判持续；特朗普将对俄罗斯发表"重大声明"；中东局 势。 ❑ 上周时政回顾： 魏芸 S1090522010002 weiyun@cmschina.com.cn 定期报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 1）美国关税：特朗普表示将对多国加征关税；将对进口铜征收 50%关税， 威胁对药品征收高额关税；"对等关税"实施时间推迟到 8 月 1 日。美 国的要求或不仅仅是下调关税，更重要的是要加强美国供应链免受第三 国干扰。短期而言，针对行业的新增高额关税或更多是刺激各国加快贸 易谈判的工具，但其长期风险持续存在，且影响或更为持久。 2）特朗普表示已批准向乌克兰运送更多防御性武器，并考虑进一步对俄罗 斯实施制裁。6 月以来，特朗普在一系列"成功"后，其对悬而未决的 问题态度转向强硬，包括关税和俄乌冲突。在俄罗斯不接受停火的情况 下，特朗普认为需要给俄罗斯施加更大压力以促成和谈；若进一步对俄 制裁 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程报告 2025 年 07 月 13 日 当下价值/成长的赔率和胜率几何？ ——风格轮动策略周报 20250711 在《如何从赔率和胜率看成长/价值轮动》报告中，我们创新性地提出了基于 赔率和胜率的投资期望结合方式，为应对价值成长风格切换问题提供了定量模 型解决方案。后续，我们将持续在样本外进行跟踪并做定期汇报。 上周全市场成长风格组合收益 2.32%，而全市场价值风格组合收益为 2.76%。 1、赔率 在前述报告中，我们已经进行了验证，即市场风格相应的相对估值水平 是其预期赔率的关键影响因素，并且两者应该呈现出负相关。由于存在上述 线性关系，我们根据最新的估值差分位数，可推得当下成长风格的赔率估计 为 1.12，价值风格的赔率估计为 1.08。 2、胜率 在七个胜率指标中，当前有 4 个指向成长，3 个指向价值。根据映射方 案，当下成长风格的胜率为 53.87%，价值风格的胜率为 46.13%。 3、最新推荐风格：成长 根据公式，投资期望=胜率*赔率-（1-胜率）。我们计算得最新的成长风格 投资期望为 0.14，价值风格的投资期望为-0.04，因此最新一期的风格轮动模 型推荐为成长风 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the net financing of local bonds increased, with long - term issuance accounting for a higher proportion, and the weighted average issuance spread widened. Also, the secondary spread of medium - and long - term local bonds narrowed, and the trading volume and turnover rate declined [1][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, the issuance of local bonds was 231.8 billion yuan, the repayment was 121.6 billion yuan, and the net financing was 110.2 billion yuan. The issuance included 14.5 billion yuan of new general bonds, 64 billion yuan of new special bonds, 82.9 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds, and 70.4 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds [1][9]. - **Issuance Term**: The issuance of 10 - year local bonds accounted for the highest proportion (41%), and the issuance of 10 - year and above accounted for 75%, an increase compared to last week. The issuance proportions of 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year local bonds were 15%, 41%, 7%, 7%, and 20% respectively, with the 15 - year issuance proportion decreasing by about 12 percentage points [1][11]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Bonds**: This week, 28.6 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds were issued. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds for replacing hidden debts, totaling 1.8246 trillion yuan. Among them, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Shandong, and Guizhou plan to issue 251.1 billion yuan, 114.8 billion yuan, 111.3 billion yuan, and 105.9 billion yuan respectively [2][14]. - **Issuance Spread**: The weighted average issuance spread of local bonds this week was 10.9bp, wider than last week. The 30 - year local bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread at 18.3bp. Except for the 5 - year local bonds, whose weighted average issuance spread narrowed, the spreads of other terms widened. Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Gansu, and Guangdong had relatively high weighted average issuance spreads, exceeding 12bp, while Jilin had a relatively low spread [1][23]. - **Raised Funds Allocation**: As of the end of this week, the main allocation directions of new special bond funds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (30%), transportation infrastructure (20%), affordable housing projects (13%), and social undertakings (12%). The proportion of land reserve allocation increased by 11.3% compared to 2024, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 7.3% [2][26]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, 30 regions have disclosed their local bond issuance plans for the third quarter of 2025, totaling 2.6041 trillion yuan. Among them, the planned issuance in July is 126.28 billion yuan. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the third quarter is 164.66 billion yuan and 95.75 billion yuan respectively. Next week, the planned issuance of local bonds is 251.2 billion yuan, the repayment is 100.7 billion yuan, and the net financing is 150.5 billion yuan, a 40.3 - billion - yuan increase from this week [3][28]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spread**: This week, the secondary spreads of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 15 - year local bonds were advantageous, while those of 5 - year, 7 - year, and 3 - year local bonds narrowed significantly. The secondary spreads of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 15 - year local bonds were 16.5bp, 15.6bp, and 15.4bp respectively. In terms of regions, the secondary spreads of local bonds over 20 - year and 15 - 20 - year in all types of regions were relatively high, and the 10 - 15 - year local bonds in medium - level regions also had relatively high spreads [5][32]. - **Trading Volume**: This week, the trading volume and turnover rate of local bonds decreased compared to last week. The local bonds of Fujian, Hunan, and Tianjin had relatively high turnover rates. The trading volume of local bonds this week reached 377.8 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.73%. Hunan, Guangdong, and Shandong had large trading volumes, reaching 33.5 billion yuan, 30.5 billion yuan, and 28.4 billion yuan respectively. The turnover rates of Fujian, Hunan, and Tianjin were all above 1.3% [5][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance relative to the benchmark index [3][27]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing focus on stablecoins and Real World Assets (RWA), particularly in light of recent discussions by the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission regarding cryptocurrency and stablecoin development [6][9]. - RDA (Real Data Assets) is highlighted as a key innovation in the RWA space, aiming to enhance the marketization and valuation of data elements, thus driving efficiency in the integration of real assets and capital [10][12]. Industry Overview - The industry comprises 284 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 3,586.9 billion and a circulating market value of 3,156.1 billion [3]. - The computer sector has shown strong performance, with absolute returns of 78.1% over 12 months and relative performance of 62.3% compared to the benchmark [5]. Market Developments - The report notes significant developments in the stablecoin sector, particularly the push for a pilot program for RMB stablecoins in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone [9][10]. - RDA is positioned as a transformative force in the data asset market, with its framework designed to facilitate the valuation and trading of data assets, thereby unlocking new financing channels for enterprises [12][13]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in stablecoin issuance, cryptocurrency exchanges, IT service providers, and cross-border payment firms, with specific mentions of companies like 恒生电子, 顶点软件, and 朗新集团 [15][16]. - It also highlights the potential of RDA to accelerate the marketization and valuation of data elements, recommending investments in infrastructure firms and data service providers [16].