事件：公司公告 25 年业绩预增：归母净利 31.5-33.4 亿同比+68.0%～78.0%， 扣非归母净利 29.9-31.7 亿同比+72.0%～82.0%。结合行业和公司近况，我们 点评如下： ❑ 风险提示：同行竞争加剧、算力客户开拓及订单导入不及预期，产能扩张不 及预期。 财务数据与估值 证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2026 年 02 月 04 日 深南电路（002916.SZ） Q4 环降源于新产能爬坡、费用增加，静待 H1 业绩环比高增 TMT 及中小盘/电子 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 13526 | 17907 | 23817 | 32153 | 43406 | | 同比增长 | -3% | 32% | 33% | 35% | 35% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1398 | 2028 | 3530 | 6114 | 8921 | | 同比增长 | -19% | 45% | 74% | 73% | 46% | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][6] Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for 2025, with a forecasted range of 3.25 to 3.45 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 87% to 98% [1] - The growth is driven by the demand for AI-related products and the structural upgrade in high-speed materials [6] - The company is positioned well in the CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) industry, with expectations of continued price increases and strong demand from major clients [6] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 16.59 billion yuan in 2023 to 56.29 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 36% [1][13] - Operating profit is expected to increase from 1.27 billion yuan in 2023 to 9.50 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [1][13] - The company's net profit is forecasted to rise from 1.16 billion yuan in 2023 to 7.96 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a robust growth outlook [1][13] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 137.4 in 2023 to 20.1 in 2027, suggesting improving valuation metrics as earnings grow [14] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its high-performance CCL production capacity, with a planned investment of 4.5 billion yuan [6] - The demand for AI PCBs (Printed Circuit Boards) is expected to continue driving growth, with the company gaining significant market share in high-end products [6] - The report highlights the company's proactive market strategies to address rising raw material costs and enhance profitability [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][6]. Core Views - The company's Q4 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue of approximately 54.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.45%, and a net profit of approximately 11.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.52% [6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the accelerating demand for high-performance computing servers and artificial intelligence, which will drive structural demand for printed circuit boards [6]. - The company is accelerating its capacity expansion and global strategy, which is anticipated to sustain high growth in performance [6]. - Significant investments in cutting-edge technologies such as CoWoP and mSAP are expected to enhance the company's high-end product capacity and optimize product structure, thereby improving overall profitability and risk resistance [6]. - The report forecasts revenue for 2025-2027 to be 189.5 billion, 265.2 billion, and 371.3 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 38.2 billion, 58.5 billion, and 85.2 billion yuan, respectively [6]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 89.38 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7%, and is expected to reach 133.42 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 49% [12]. - The company's net profit for 2023 is estimated at 15.13 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11%, and is projected to grow to 25.87 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 71% [12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.79 yuan in 2023 to 1.34 yuan in 2024, and further to 1.99 yuan in 2025 [13]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 88.5 in 2023 to 35.0 in 2025, indicating an improving valuation [13].

证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2026 年 2 月 3 日 成长占优，大小盘表现差异收敛 ——A 股流动性与风格跟踪月报（202602） 展望 2 月，市场在未来一段时间将会以震荡为主，节后指数有望强于节前。日 历效应显示 2 月小盘、成长风格的胜率相对更高，考虑到市场仍处春季行情阶 段，风格层面继续推荐成长风格，大小盘表现差异有望收敛，先大盘后小盘。推 荐指数主要包括中证 1000、创业板 50、300 质量、800 信息等。 ❑流动性与资金供需：2 月增量资金或继续净流入，节前外资有望继续净流入， 节后融资有望回流。宏观流动性方面，政府债券在 1 月集中发行缴款，对流动 性形成一定抽水效应。央行采取了精准有力的对冲措施，通过中期流动性工具 弥补资金缺口，2 月资金面有望继续保持平稳充裕。外部流动性方面，从特朗 普新提名的美联储主席沃什的政策主张来看，沃什更可能采取温和且渐进的降 息策略，其更倾向于将降息与缩减资产负债表（缩表）配合，以对冲宽松效应， 避免通胀反弹。目前市场对 2026 年的降息预期从原先的 1 次上调至 2 次。股 票市场资金供需方面，1 月股票市场可跟踪资金转为净流出，融资成为主力增 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 03 日 当地时间 2026 年 1 月 28 日，美联储召开议息会议，宣布暂停降息。本次会议 中鲍威尔略显鹰派，强调通胀上行风险和就业下行风险都在减弱，下次降息的 门槛有所提高。但鲍威尔同时提到关税带来的通胀影响大概率年中见顶，该变 化本身有利于后续宽松。换言之，Q2 后关税基数切换有利于新主席上任后的宽 松操作，这仍是美联储政策独立的体现。在面对本人是否留任、美联储换帅、 法院调查等敏感问题时，鲍威尔均表示无可奉告，这也展现了其希望美联储能 平稳过渡的态度。此外，近期美日汇率波动引发关注，尽管贝森特表示美国始 终奉行强势美元政策且不会干预美元兑日元汇率，但特朗普本人还是支持弱美 元，市场表现亦给出了答案。 沃什被任命下一届美联储主席对美股影响或短（至 Q3）多中（Q4 及明年）空： 我们于去年底提出全球财政思路大转变"节流转向开源"，2027-2028 年或为 本轮康波萧条期的尾声，随后全球私人部门重新加杠杆，也即，"脱虚向实"。 沃什刚好是这个时代的选择。QE 是私人部门去杠杆、政府加杠杆的产物，进而 "脱虚向实"阶段的货币政策将回归价格主导、QE ...

Group 1: Current Trends in Financial Assets - "Deposit migration" is a hot topic as residents shift funds from traditional savings to diversified financial assets due to declining deposit rates and increasing wealth management awareness[1] - In comparison to the US, Japan, Germany, the UK, and South Korea, cash and deposits account for over 30% of residents' financial assets in most countries, with Japan and South Korea around 50%[3] - By 2030, it is projected that Chinese residents' holdings of cash and deposits, stocks and equity, funds, insurance, and bonds will grow by 42%, 43%, 22%, 61%, and 16% respectively compared to 2025 estimates[3] Group 2: Factors Influencing Asset Allocation - The proportion of equity assets is generally positively correlated with per capita GDP, with China's current equity asset share at 31%[3] - Aging populations increase the share of low-risk assets, as older individuals tend to prefer safer investments[3] - Low interest rates encourage residents to seek higher returns, leading to increased risk asset allocation, though the exact path remains uncertain[3] Group 3: International Comparisons and Predictions - China's financial asset structure is expected to align more closely with the Japanese and German models rather than the Anglo-American model, emphasizing lower risk preferences[3] - China's overseas financial asset holdings have significant growth potential, with current levels being over five times lower than those in developed countries[3] - The financial deepening process in China may slow down, with financial asset growth converging towards GDP growth rates due to various economic factors[3]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2026 年 02 月 03 日 比亚迪（002594.SZ） 2026M1 国内外销量显著分化，关注新品周期 中游制造/汽车 2026 年 1 月，由于春节前终端去库存、购置税补贴退坡后的需求透支等行业因 素，国内新能源汽车市场呈现"同比分化、环比普降"的格局。公司作为全球新 能源龙头，当月销量呈现明显的结构性特征，整体受国内市场拖累出现同比下 滑，但海外市场延续高增。 ❑ 风险提示：1、新品需求不及预期；2、海外布局不及预期。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 602315 | 777102 | 854813 | 923198 | 969358 | | 同比增长 | 42% | 29% | 10% | 8% | 5% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 38103 | 50486 | 43564 | 45799 | 48764 | | 同比增长 | 77% | 32% | -14% | 5% | 6 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2026 年 02 月 03 日 布局消费反转！ 大消费组二月消费金股 研究部/消费品 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 4.3 4.6 25.0 相对表现 3.1 -8.7 1.7 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -10 0 10 20 30 Feb/25 May/25 Sep/25 Jan/26 (%) 消费品 沪深300 相关报告 1、《招商证券 1 月港股消费观察： 外卖反垄断如何影响港股消费股前 景？》2026-01-27 2、《大消费组一月消费金股—双节 消费亮点前瞻》2026-01-06 ❑ 轻纺 杨蕊菁：看好家居板块修复以及倍加洁益生菌业务发展 风险提示：消费下行风险，消费复苏疲软风险、宏观经济变动风险等。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 1216 | 23.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 17628.3 | 15.6 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 16321.4 | 15.9 | 行业指数 3、《招商证券 12 月港股消费观察— 1-2 月流动性改善后港股消费买什 么？》2025 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2026 年 2 月 2 日 A 股细化三大环境信披指南，国际气候行动持续分化 ——ESG 市场观察周报（20260201） 1、要闻速览：国内 ESG 信披细则落地，国际气候行动呈现分化 国内动态方面，沪深北交易所新增《第三号 污染物排放》《第四号 能源利用》 《第五号 水资源利用》三项可持续发展报告实操指南；香港金管局发布可持续金融 分类法 2A 阶段版本，新增气候转型与适应类别；国家能源局新批准成立 7 个能源 标准化技术委员会，完善绿色低碳标准体系。 国际动态方面，国际公共部门会计准则理事会（IPSASB）发布全球首项公共 部门气候相关披露标准；美国正式退出《巴黎协定》的生效程序完成；英国竞争与 市场管理局发布新指南，明确零售商需对供应链"漂绿"行为承担责任；欧洲九国 签署《汉堡宣言》联合开发北海 100 吉瓦海上风电及相关基础设施。 2、市场动向： ESG 指数表现分化，碳价与电力板块回调 本周国内代表性 ESG 主题指数分化，国内 300ESG、上证社会责任及 180 治 理指数分别上涨 0.49%、0.70%和 1.93%，而 SEEE 碳中和指数下跌 1.85%。 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2026 年 02 月 02 日 相关报告 1、《沃什当选与 PPI 提前转 正，谁将成为下阶段市场主要 矛盾———宏观与大类资产周 报》2026-02-01 2、《为什么伊朗局势一波三 折？———国际时政周评》 2026-02-01 3、《金属价格为何如此繁荣— 显微镜下的中国经济（2026 年 第 3 期）》2026-01-26 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 2025 年周平均工作时间有所下降 显微镜下的中国经济（2026 年第 4 期） 频率：每周 降低就业人员工作时长，有助于增加消费场景，对提升居民消费率有帮助作 用。 定期报告 根据国家统计局的数据，企业就业人员每周平均工作时间为 48.43 小时，低 于 2023 和 2024 年时长，但仍明显高于疫情前的水平。去年，除 1 月外，2- 12 月每周平均工作时间均低于 2023-2024 年同期水平。 工作时长的缩短自然会增加居民的闲暇时间。根据我们的测算扣 ...