Core Insights - The report indicates that the recent acceleration in net financing inflow has provided incremental capital to the market, driving individual stock performance while significantly increasing overall market leverage and potential volatility risks [5][30]. - To mitigate the rapid rise in leverage, regulatory measures have been intensified, including raising the margin requirement for financing from 80% to 100%, which aims to control new leverage without impacting existing contracts [7][17]. - The report anticipates that the A-share market is likely to shift to a volatile trend after reaching previous highs, with a focus on performance disclosures expected to intensify as the earnings forecast disclosure peak approaches on January 15 [2][30]. Market Analysis - The report highlights that the A-share market experienced a high trading volume, with total market turnover exceeding 3.9 trillion yuan in the first half of the week, followed by a drop below 3 trillion yuan after the margin policy announcement [32]. - The technology sector, particularly AI computing and semiconductor equipment, is identified as a key battleground for January, alongside resource products represented by industrial metals [5][30]. - The report notes that the net outflow from ETFs, amounting to 129.6 billion yuan, has contributed to cooling market enthusiasm, with significant withdrawals from major ETFs such as the CSI 300 ETF [12][15]. Sector Performance - The report indicates that sectors such as computing, electronics, and non-ferrous metals have seen positive valuation trends, while sectors like defense, real estate, and steel have experienced declines [30][33]. - The report emphasizes the importance of cyclical and technology sectors for investment strategies, recommending a focus on industries such as electric equipment, machinery, non-bank financials, electronics, and basic chemicals [6][31]. - The report also highlights the improvement in the semiconductor industry, with December exports of integrated circuits showing a year-on-year increase of 47.72%, indicating a positive trend in the tech sector [38][41]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a preference for large-cap growth stocks in the current market environment, recommending index combinations including CSI 300, STAR Market 50, and quality indices [6][31]. - It advises that industry allocation should focus on spring market dynamics and forward-looking clues from annual reports, particularly in cyclical and technology sectors [6][31]. - The report underscores the significance of monitoring performance disclosures, especially for small-cap and thematic stocks, as they may face pressure from earnings forecasts [5][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook for specific sectors such as shipping and logistics [2]. Core Insights - The shipping sector is experiencing a significant increase in oil transportation rates due to heightened sanctions from the US and EU against Iran and Venezuela, leading to strong market sentiment among shipowners [6][17]. - The infrastructure sector is advised to focus on individual stock selections, particularly in stable cash flow assets like ports, which are currently undervalued [19]. - The aviation industry is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics and lower fuel prices in 2026, marking a potential recovery year for profitability [25]. - The express delivery sector is projected to see a gradual improvement in competition and profitability, with a focus on major players like SF Express and Zhongtong Express [21]. Shipping Sector Summary - Oil transportation rates have surged significantly due to geopolitical tensions, with VLCC TD3C-TCE reaching $116,000 per day, a notable increase of 10.8% from the previous week [12][49]. - The dry bulk market is showing signs of seasonal decline, with the BDI index reporting a drop of 7.2% [16][48]. - Recommendations include focusing on oil tanker and dry bulk stocks such as COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [17]. Infrastructure Sector Summary - Weekly data indicates a 17.3% increase in truck traffic volume, while rail freight has seen a 10.3% increase week-on-week [19][18]. - The report suggests investing in highway assets like Anhui Expressway, which are expected to provide stable returns [19]. Express Delivery Sector Summary - The express delivery industry saw a 13.7% year-on-year growth in business volume for 2025, with December showing a slowdown to 2.6% [20][21]. - Major companies are expected to benefit from operational adjustments, with SF Express projected to achieve faster profit growth in 2026 [21]. Aviation Sector Summary - The aviation sector is currently in a transitional phase, with passenger volumes showing a 3.6% year-on-year decline, but a potential recovery is anticipated in 2026 due to improved market conditions [25][22]. - The report emphasizes monitoring the impact of the Spring Festival travel season and geopolitical factors on oil prices [25]. Logistics Sector Summary - The logistics sector is experiencing stable air freight prices, with the TAC Shanghai outbound air freight price index remaining flat week-on-week [26]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring cross-border transport volumes and short-haul freight rates [26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance relative to the benchmark index [2][23]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that 2026 is the inaugural year for AI applications, suggesting that the market is just beginning to experience significant growth in this area [1]. - The computer sector has shown strong performance, with a notable increase in stock prices, indicating robust investor interest and market activity [4][17]. - Key developments in AI technology are highlighted, including Alibaba's significant upgrade to its Qianwen App, which integrates various services and enhances its AI capabilities [9][11]. Industry Overview - The industry comprises 286 stocks, with a total market capitalization of approximately 4,800.7 billion and a circulating market value of about 4,256.1 billion [2]. - The computer sector's absolute performance over the past 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months has been 20.2%, 24.2%, and 53.2%, respectively, showcasing strong growth [4]. - The report notes that the competition for AI application and infrastructure is intensifying, with a focus on major players like Alibaba and various vertical AI application companies [16]. Market Performance Review - In the second week of 2026, the computer sector rose by 3.82%, with notable stock performances from companies such as Jiechuang Intelligent and Shiji Information, which saw increases of 28.95% and 28.69%, respectively [17][18]. - The report provides a detailed ranking of stocks based on their weekly performance, highlighting both the top gainers and losers in the sector [17].

Group 1: Market Index and Style Performance Review - Major broad market indices mostly increased this week, with the CSI 500 rising by 2.18%, the Northbound 50 by 1.58%, and the CSI 1000 by 1.27%. However, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.45% and the CSI 300 by 0.57% [2][10]. - Over the past month, all major broad market indices have risen, with the CSI 500 up by 17.59% and the CSI 1000 by 14.64% [10][11]. - In terms of industry performance, sectors such as computer, electronics, media, non-ferrous metals, and machinery performed well, while defense, agriculture, coal, real estate, and non-bank financials lagged behind [14][16]. Group 2: Factor Performance Tracking - In the CSI 300 stock pool, factors such as the 20-day volume variation coefficient, standardized unexpected earnings, and overnight momentum before earnings announcements performed well this week [3][24]. - In the CSI 500 stock pool, the 60-day specificity, 20-day specificity, and 60-day momentum factors showed strong performance [3][26]. - The overall market stock pool saw strong performance from quarterly ROA, quarterly ROE, and quarterly net profit margin factors [3][22]. Group 3: Quantitative Fund Performance - The average excess return for CSI 300 index-enhanced products was 0.58%, while the CSI 500 index-enhanced products had an average excess return of -0.26% [4][12]. - The best-performing active quantitative fund this week was Huian Quantitative Preferred A [4][12]. Group 4: Quantitative Index Enhancement Portfolio Tracking - The CSI 300 index enhancement portfolio achieved an excess return of 0.24% over the past week, while the CSI 500 index enhancement portfolio had an excess return of 0.27% [5][12]. - The CSI 800 index enhancement portfolio recorded an excess return of 0.59% [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the performance of the quantitative fund market, summarizing the performance of major indices and quantitative funds, the overall performance and distribution of different types of public - offering quantitative funds, and the better - performing quantitative funds from January 12 to January 16, 2026, for investors' reference [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Index and Quantitative Fund Performance - This week (January 12 - January 16), A - shares showed mixed performance, with small - cap growth stocks leading the rise and large - cap value stocks falling. Quantitative funds recorded positive returns, and the excess returns of index - enhanced funds were divergent. Active quantitative funds rose by an average of 1.21%. The excess returns of CSI 300 Index - enhanced, CSI 500 Index - enhanced, and CSI 1000 Index - enhanced funds were 0.63%, - 0.34%, and 0.34% respectively, and the average excess return of other index - enhanced funds was 0.25%. Market - neutral funds rose by 0.16% [2][4][6]. - The weekly returns of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were - 0.57%, 2.18%, and 1.27% respectively [3][6]. 3.2 Performance of Different Types of Public - Offering Quantitative Funds - **CSI 300 Index - enhanced funds**: The weekly return was 0.06%, the excess return was 0.63%, the maximum drawdown was - 0.72%, the excess maximum drawdown was - 0.19%, and the excess return dispersion was 0.53% [14]. - **CSI 500 Index - enhanced funds**: The weekly return was 1.84%, the excess return was - 0.34%, the maximum drawdown was - 1.18%, the excess maximum drawdown was - 1.08%, and the excess return dispersion was 0.48% [14]. - **CSI 1000 Index - enhanced funds**: The weekly return was 1.61%, the excess return was 0.34%, the maximum drawdown was - 1.46%, the excess maximum drawdown was - 0.79%, and the excess return dispersion was 0.44% [15]. - **Other index - enhanced funds**: The weekly return was 1.23%, the excess return was 0.25%, the maximum drawdown was - 1.38%, the excess maximum drawdown was - 0.50%, and the excess return dispersion was 0.68% [15]. - **Active quantitative funds**: The weekly return was 1.21%, the maximum drawdown was - 1.16%, and the return dispersion was 1.61% [16]. - **Market - neutral funds**: The weekly return was 0.16%, the maximum drawdown was - 0.13%, and the return dispersion was 0.61% [16]. 3.3 Performance Distribution of Different Types of Public - Offering Quantitative Funds The report shows the performance trends of different types of public - offering quantitative funds in the past six months, as well as the performance distribution this week and in the past year. Index - enhanced funds show the performance of excess returns, but specific data is not further elaborated in the text [17]. 3.4 High - Performing Public - Offering Quantitative Funds - **CSI 300 Index - enhanced high - performing funds**: Such as E Fund CSI 300 Selected Enhanced (managed by Zhang Shengji, with a scale of 4024 million yuan, and a weekly excess return of 2.15%), and others [31]. - **CSI 500 Index - enhanced high - performing funds**: For example, Bosera CSI 500 Index - enhanced (managed by Yang Meng, with a scale of 2764 million yuan, and a weekly excess return of 0.31%) [32]. - **CSI 1000 Index - enhanced high - performing funds**: Like Huatai - Peregrine CSI 1000 Enhanced Strategy ETF (managed by Da Huang and Liu Jun, with a scale of 40 million yuan, and a weekly excess return of 1.12%) [33]. - **Other index - enhanced high - performing funds**: Such as E Fund SSE 50 Enhanced Strategy ETF (managed by Zhang Shengji, with a scale of 49 million yuan, and a weekly excess return of 2.04%) [34]. - **Active quantitative high - performing funds**: For instance, Huian Quantitative Selection (managed by Wang Minglu, with a scale of 3 million yuan, and a weekly return of 8.68%) [35]. - **Market - neutral high - performing funds**: Such as China Post Absolute Return Strategy (managed by Yao Yi and Xing Rufeng, with a scale of 48 million yuan, and a weekly return of 2.39%) [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report focuses on the performance of the ETF fund market from January 12th to January 16th, summarizing the performance and fund flows of the overall ETF market, different popular segmented ETF funds, and innovative theme and segmented industry ETF funds [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 ETF Market Overall Performance - **Market Performance**: Stock ETFs showed mixed performance. Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Shenzhen theme ETFs and A-share TMT ETFs led the gains, with above-scale funds rising by an average of 6.30% and 4.03% respectively. Conversely, A-share financial real estate and A-share consumption declined, with above-scale funds falling by an average of 2.68% and 1.80% respectively [2][5]. - **Fund Flows**: Funds flowed significantly into A-share TMT ETFs and A-share cyclical ETFs, with net inflows of 39.604 billion yuan and 19.838 billion yuan respectively throughout the week. In contrast, A-share large-cap ETFs and A-share dual innovation ETFs had net outflows of 126.355 billion yuan and 45.115 billion yuan respectively [3][7]. 3.2 Different Popular Segmented Type ETF Fund Market Performance - **A-share ETFs**: Different segmented A-share ETFs, including broad-based indices, industries, SmartBeta, themes, etc., showed various performance in terms of fund scale, weekly fund flows, weekly returns, and trading volumes. For example, in the TMT industry, the weekly returns of some semiconductor material and equipment theme ETFs were relatively high [11][19]. - **Hong Kong Stock ETFs**: Similar to A-share ETFs, Hong Kong stock ETFs in different segments also had diverse performance. For instance, in the TMT industry, some Hong Kong stock technology ETFs had certain positive returns [31]. - **Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen ETFs**: ETFs in this category also showed different performance in different industries and themes, such as the innovation drug and cloud computing industries [35]. - **US Stock ETFs**: US stock ETFs in broad-based indices and industries also had their own performance characteristics, with some showing slight declines and others showing slight increases [37][38]. - **Other QDII-ETFs**: These ETFs, including those related to South Korea, overseas Internet, and Japan, also had various performance [39]. - **Bond ETFs**: Different bond ETFs had different fund flows and returns, with some showing positive returns and others showing slight changes [40]. - **Commodity ETFs**: Commodity ETFs, such as gold and non-ferrous metals, also had their own performance, with gold ETFs generally showing positive returns [41]. 3.3 Innovative Theme and Segmented Industry ETF Fund Market Performance - **TMT Innovation Themes**: Software, cloud computing big data, and other themes showed relatively high weekly returns and year-to-date returns. For example, the software theme had a weekly return of 7.11% and a year-to-date return of 16.55% [43]. - **Consumption Segmented Industries**: Industries such as household appliances and food and beverage showed different performance, with some industries showing slight increases and others showing declines [44]. - **Pharmaceutical Segmented Industries**: The performance of different pharmaceutical segments was also diverse, with some segments such as medical devices showing slight declines and others such as medical care showing slight increases [45]. - **New Energy Themes**: Themes such as photovoltaic industry and new energy showed positive performance, with the photovoltaic industry having a weekly return of 3.94% and a year-to-date return of 9.91% [46]. - **Central and State-Owned Enterprise Themes**: Different central and state-owned enterprise themes had different performance, with some themes such as central enterprise science and technology leading showing positive returns and others such as central enterprise innovation showing declines [47]. - **Stable Growth Themes**: Industries such as non-ferrous metals and chemical industries showed different performance, with non-ferrous metals having a relatively high weekly return and real estate showing a decline [48]. - **Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen/Hong Kong Stock Connect Segmented Industries**: Different industries in this category also had various performance, with Hong Kong stock connect Internet and Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Internet showing relatively high returns [49]. - **Dividend/Dividend Low Volatility Index Families**: Different indices in this family showed declines to varying degrees, with some indices having relatively large declines [50]. - **Science and Technology Innovation/Growth Enterprise Market Index Families**: Indices in this family generally showed positive performance, with the science and technology innovation 100 index having a relatively high weekly return [51].

A 股技术指标仍维持乐观，仍看好小盘胜率 ——技术择时信号 20260116 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2026 年 01 月 17 日 | 指数 | 最新信号 | 上周信号 | | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 300 | 乐观 | 乐观 | | 上证 50 | 乐观 | 乐观 | | 中证 500 | 乐观 | 乐观 | | 中证 1000 | 乐观 | 乐观 | | 中证 2000 | 乐观 | 乐观 | | 上证指数 | 乐观 | 乐观 | | 万得全 A | 乐观 | 乐观 | | 中证全指 | 乐观 | 乐观 | | 中证 A500 | 乐观 | 乐观 | | 创业板指 | 无信号 | 乐观 | | 科创 50 | 乐观 | 乐观 | | 红利低波 100 | 乐观 | 乐观 | | 国防军工 | 无相似片段 | 无相似片段 | | 人形机器人 | 乐观 | 乐观 | | 电子 | 乐观 | 乐观 | | CS 电池 | 乐观 | 乐观 | | 券商 | 无相似片段 | 无相似片段 | | CS 创新药 | 无相似片段 | 中性 | | 大小盘(DTW) ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated superior profitability compared to the industry, leveraging cost optimization and product structure adjustments to mitigate risks associated with low chicken prices. The outlook for the white-feathered chicken breeding segment is promising, which is expected to benefit the downstream market, indicating potential for value extraction across the entire industry chain [1][6]. - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with total revenue expected to reach 21,519 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a 16% year-on-year increase. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,398 million yuan, representing a 93% increase compared to the previous year [2][20]. - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with a projected decline of over 5% in comprehensive meat production costs in 2025. The C-end revenue is expected to grow by over 30%, with offline channels seeing growth exceeding 40% [6][13]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 18,487 million yuan in 2023, 18,586 million yuan in 2024, 21,519 million yuan in 2025, 23,646 million yuan in 2026, and 26,008 million yuan in 2027 [2][20]. - The company's operating profit is expected to grow significantly, with estimates of 1,606 million yuan in 2025 and 2,193 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a 100% increase in 2025 and a 29% increase in 2027 [2][20]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.12 yuan in 2025 and 1.58 yuan in 2027, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio expected to decrease from 14.4 in 2025 to 10.2 in 2027 [2][21]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is well-positioned in the market with a breeding capacity exceeding 700 million birds and a steady increase in slaughter volume. The integration of the entire industry chain and self-sufficiency in breeding sources provide a buffer against industry cyclicality [6][13]. - The company is actively expanding its deep processing capabilities and implementing a multi-channel strategy, which has successfully opened up growth opportunities in its food business [6][13]. - The white-feathered chicken breeding segment is expected to maintain high profitability due to a decrease in imported breeding stock and the impact of avian influenza on supply, which will likely affect the downstream market positively [6][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for leading internet companies with stable performance and strong AI sector positioning, such as Tencent Holdings, Kuaishou, Bilibili, and Meitu [1]. Core Insights - The internet industry is witnessing accelerated iterations in various applications and edge computing, highlighted by the successful IPOs of Zhipu and MiniMax, which are expected to drive investment opportunities [1]. - MiniMax, a global AI company, achieved a market capitalization exceeding HKD 100 billion shortly after its IPO, reflecting strong market interest and growth potential in the AI sector [1][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies that are leading in AI applications and have shown robust performance in recent quarters [1]. Industry Overview - The internet industry comprises 160 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately CNY 2,329.4 billion and a circulating market value of CNY 2,142.5 billion [4]. - The overall market performance from January 5 to January 11 shows the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.82%, while the Hang Seng Internet Technology Index fell by 1.08% [13]. - The industry indices indicate a strong performance in the integrated service sector, with a 20.73% increase during the same period [13]. Company Performance - Tencent Holdings reported a slight decline of 1.93% in its stock price, while Kuaishou and Bilibili saw increases of 12.75% and 11.87%, respectively [18]. - The report highlights the strong revenue growth of Tencent's gaming business, with a 23% year-on-year increase in Q3, driven by popular titles and international market expansion [20].

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题报告 2026 年 1 月 16 日 2026 财年全球宽财政力度有多大？ 专题报告 相关报告 1、《如何提高居民消费率？》 2025-12-15 2、《"适度宽松"的政策含义 ——2026 年货币流动性展望》 2025-12-11 3、《美元流动性紧张局面的成 因与展望》2025-12-10 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 张玉书 研究助理 zhangyushu@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 2026 财年全球主要经济体财政支出力度预计较 2025 财年进一步增加。根 据对占全球经济总量约 70%的九大经济体，也即：中国、美国、欧元区 （仅包括目前已公布预算的 18 个国家）、日本、韩国、加拿大、英国、 澳大利亚、俄罗斯的财政预算数据测算，2026 财年加权平均计算的财政 支出占 GDP 的比例从 2025 财年的 33.2%上升至 33.5%，赤字率从 2025 财年的 5.7%上升至 6.0%，显示 2026 财年全球主要经济体宽财政力度将 进一步增加。 结构上，2026 财年主要经济体 ...