证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 07 月 15 日 生益科技（600183.SH） Q2 大超预期，Q3 望延续高景气，高速材料放量份额持续提升 TMT 及中小盘/电子 事件：公司预告 25H1 归母净利 14-14.5 亿同比+50%-56%，扣非归母 13.5-14 亿同比+49%-54%。结合公司近况，我们点评如下： 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 16586 | 20388 | 28544 | 37107 | 44528 | | 同比增长 | -8% | 23% | 40% | 30% | 20% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1273 | 2072 | 3866 | 5302 | 6771 | | 同比增长 | -29% | 63% | 87% | 37% | 28% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 1164 | 1739 | 3242 | 4443 | 5674 | | 同比增长 | -24% | ...

事件：公司预告 25H1 归母净利润 12.0-12.6 亿，同比增长 52.8%-60.6%；扣 非归母净利 11.0-11.6 亿，同比增长 46.1%-53.6%。结合公司近况，点评如下： ❑ Q2 业绩表现大超市场预期，源于产品结构优化、稼动率和良率提升对盈利能 力拉动。单 Q2 收入 82.9 亿同比+28.7%环比+2.5%，归母净利润中值 7.41 亿同比+158.1%环比+51.8%，扣非归母净利中值 6.55 亿同比+160.0%环比 +37.1%。据我们了解，Q2 业绩表现超出公司管理层此前预期，这源于：1） 业务结构的优化，Q2 硬板收入规模和占比提升，其毛利率环比提升了几个点； 2）Q2 由于大客户的备货动能强劲，公司稼动率同比提升较多，软板毛利率 同比表现持平环比提升，比市场预估的"由于大客户降价促销致毛利率承压" 表现更好；3）良率的改善，AI 算力领域和大客户的订单需求提升推动 MSAP 产线利用率和良率改善较多，盈利表现超预期。 ❑ 风险提示：地缘政治冲突加剧带来潜在的关税风险，需求低于预期、同行竞 争加剧、扩产进度及产能爬坡低于预期。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 202 ...

AI 驱动 Q2 业绩高增，AI 占比提升望推动业绩逐季环比向上 TMT 及中小盘/电子 公司预告 25H1 收入 36.5-38.8 亿元，同比增长 85%-97%；归母净利 5.1-5.5 亿，同比增长 432%-471%；扣非归母净利 5.1-5.5 亿，同比增长 462%-503%。 结合公司近况，我们点评如下： ❑ 风险提示：新增产能释放不及预期；下游需求低于预期；行业竞争加剧；贸 易摩擦加剧。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 3273 | 4687 | 8202 | 11482 | 15157 | | 同比增长 | -7% | 43% | 75% | 40% | 32% | | 营业利润(百万元) | (56) | 351 | 1468 | 2221 | 3155 | | 同比增长 | -118% | -723% | 318% | 51% | 42% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | (25) | 332 | 132 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the construction materials sector, indicating a positive outlook for performance recovery in categories such as cement and fiberglass [2]. Core Insights - The ongoing "anti-involution" campaign is expected to improve the profitability of leading companies in the construction materials sector, particularly in the consumer segment [6][13]. - Cement prices are experiencing a slight downward trend due to high temperatures and rainy seasons affecting demand, with a recent average price drop of 0.4% [10][21]. - The fiberglass market shows stable pricing for non-alkali roving, while electronic yarn prices are expected to rise for high-end products [12][14]. Summary by Sections Industry Scale - The construction materials sector comprises 96 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 817.2 billion [2]. Industry Dynamics - Cement: The national average cement price has decreased by 0.4%, with significant drops in regions like Anhui and Hubei [10][21]. - Float Glass: The average price is 1173 yuan/ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.24% [11]. - Fiberglass: The market for non-alkali roving remains stable, while electronic yarn prices are expected to increase [12]. Consumer Construction Materials - The consumer market is showing signs of recovery, with a 3.0% year-on-year increase in retail sales of construction and decoration materials from January to May 2025 [13]. - The report highlights the importance of leading companies with strong distribution channels and healthy cash flow [13]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several companies, including Weixing New Materials, Keda Manufacturing, and Mona Lisa, for their strong market positions and growth strategies [14][15][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector, indicating a preference for absolute and relative returns in the long term [3][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the growth rate of M1 has rebounded significantly, driven by three main factors: low base effect, increased fiscal efforts, and strict payment terms [3][12]. - The implementation of the "Regulations on Payment of Funds to Small and Medium-sized Enterprises" is expected to reduce payment delays from large enterprises to SMEs, thereby enhancing liquidity through short-term loans and bond issuance [2][3]. - Despite the positive trends, the report notes that the current M1 growth rate still lags behind the growth rates of social financing, M2, and nominal GDP, indicating a need for further improvement in economic vitality [3][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Analysis - The report discusses the financial data released by the central bank for June 2025, noting that the growth rates of social financing, credit, M2, and M1 align with previous forecasts, with M1 growth exceeding expectations [1][3]. - M1's growth rate for June 2025 is reported at 4.6%, a significant increase from 2.3% in May 2025 [12]. Policy Impact - The new regulations effective from June 1, 2025, mandate timely payments from large enterprises to SMEs, which is expected to convert accounts payable into short-term loans, thus improving liquidity in the market [2][3]. - The report emphasizes that these regulations will help reduce the overall payment delay chain in the economy, enhancing the liquidity of SMEs [2][3]. Future Outlook and Recommendations - The report suggests that the banking sector will benefit from ongoing fiscal efforts, particularly if more resources are directed towards social welfare areas such as education and healthcare [3]. - It recommends a balanced investment strategy focusing on banks with superior free cash flow and excess provisions, indicating a favorable long-term return potential [3][5].

证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 07 月 14 日 高温超导带材技术突破有望推进托卡马克商业化 可控核聚变专题：关于超导的研究和探讨 中游制造/机械 托卡马克是全球核聚变装置采取的主流技术路径。超导磁体是托卡马克价值量 占比最高的环节，而超导带材又是超导磁体的核心成本构成。我们认为，超导 带材及超导磁体环节具备高价值量、高壁垒、竞争格局优异的特征，值得重视。 本篇报告讨论了超导及超导材料的定义、高低温超导材料各自的优劣势及进展、 以及超导磁体的构成和壁垒，以及相关的上市公司。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 472 | 9.2 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3993.1 | 4.4 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 3442.0 | 4.2 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 5.0 21.2 51.0 相对表现 1.9 13.7 35.3 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 0 20 40 60 Jul/24 Nov/24 Feb/25 Jun/25 (%) 机械 沪深300 相关报告 1、《船舶行业系 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 07 月 14 日 维生素 B1、脂肪醇价格涨幅居前，建议关注 Q2 业绩环比高增标的 招商化工行业周报 2025 年 7 月第 2 周 周期/化工 本报告阐述了基础化工板块一周行情走势、产品价格及价差变化、重点推荐子 行业及公司。 板块整体走势 7 月第 2 周化工板块（申万）上涨 0.80%，上证 A 指上涨 1.40%，板块落后 大盘 0.60 个百分点。涨幅排名前 5 的个股分别为：硅宝科技（+16.97%）， 广东宏大（+16.69%），嘉澳环保（+11.86%），双象股份（+11.58%），普 利特（+11.43%）；跌幅排名前 5 的个股分别为：大东南（-8.82%），巨化 股份（-5.62%），建新股份（-5.04%），再升科技（-4.74%），*ST 金泰（-4.62%）。 此外，本周化工板块（申万）动态 PE 为 25.37 倍，低于 2015 年来的平均 PE 6.89%。 细分子行业走势 7 月第 2 周化工行业 23 个子行业上涨，9 个子行业下跌。上涨子行业前五是： 玻纤（+8.73%），合成革（+8.34%），民爆用品（+4.84%） ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [2][7]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading domestic AIoT SoC chip manufacturer with a broad range of applications across various industries. The flagship products and new releases have driven a continuous increase in market share, contributing to strong annual performance growth. The company is expected to benefit from the explosive growth of edge AI applications in sectors such as automotive electronics, machine vision, industrial applications, and robotics [6][66]. - The company has established long-term partnerships with thousands of terminal customers, including major players like BYD, Xiaomi, and Lenovo, which enhances its market position [6][18]. - The company has maintained a stable R&D investment of around 20% of revenue for over a decade, which has solidified its core competitiveness in AIoT technology, algorithms, and products [6][27]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 2001, the company specializes in the design, research, and sales of intelligent application processor SoCs and peripheral chips. It has a rich product matrix covering automotive electronics, machine vision, and industrial applications, making it one of the most diversified AIoT product line manufacturers in China [14][18]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 3.136 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 47%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 595 million yuan, up 341% year-on-year. For the first half of 2025, revenue is expected to reach 2.045 billion yuan, representing a 64% increase year-on-year, with net profit projected between 520 million and 540 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 185% to 195% [6][19][66]. Market Opportunities - The report highlights significant growth opportunities in edge and on-device AI applications, driven by the open-sourcing of AI large model technologies. The automotive electronics sector is expected to see a surge in demand for SoC computing power due to the increasing complexity of smart cockpit features [30][33]. - The machine vision market is projected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 20% from 2024 to 2028, driven by advancements in AI and industrial automation [33][36]. Product Development - The company is actively developing a full range of AIoT SoC chip platforms, including high-end, mid-high-end, mid-range, and entry-level products. The flagship RK3588 chip continues to gain traction, with several new products launched in 2024, including RK3576 and RK2118 [6][49][66]. - The company is also focusing on enhancing its AI algorithms and software solutions, which are expected to improve the performance of its hardware products in various applications [66]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 4.311 billion yuan, 5.539 billion yuan, and 6.943 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 37%, 29%, and 25%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.055 billion yuan, 1.339 billion yuan, and 1.734 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 77%, 27%, and 29% [7][66].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 07 月 14 日 杭叉集团（603298.SH） 强烈推荐（维持） 当前股价：21.0 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 1310 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 1310 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 27.5 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 27.5 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 8.1 | | ROE（TTM） | 19.6 | | 资产负债率 | 35.0% | | 主要股东 | 浙江杭叉控股股份有限公司 | | 主要股东持股比例 | 41.13% | 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 6 14 18 相对表现 3 6 2 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Jul/24 Nov/24 Feb/25 Jun/25 (%) 杭叉集团 沪深300 相关报告 1、《杭叉集团（603298）—全球化持 续推进，净利率创历史新高》 2024-04-19 拟收购国自机器人，强化打造"智能化"新发展逻辑 中游制造/机械 事件：公司近期发布公告，控股子公司杭叉智能拟以扩股增资方式收购关联 ...

Group 1: Tax System Reform and Economic Impact - The VAT has become the largest tax type in China, maintaining a stable share of 35-40% since 2016, with a compound growth rate of -7.4% in 2022, 4.5% in 2023, and 17.0% in 2024, indicating a significant acceleration in growth[3] - In 2024, VAT revenue accounted for 49.5% of local fiscal revenue, the highest in history, reflecting the declining support of land finance for local governments[3] - The average share of VAT revenue in local fiscal income from 2016 to 2022 was 45.3%, increasing to over 49% from 2023, coinciding with a period of negative domestic price levels[3] Group 2: Price Control and Market Dynamics - The current fiscal and tax system may create unreasonable incentives for local governments to stimulate production, which could hinder the establishment of a unified national market[3] - Shifting the consumption tax collection point from production to sales could enhance local governments' focus on consumption, as local sales would directly impact their tax revenue[3] - Optimizing the fiscal and tax system can reduce local governments' supply impulses and increase their emphasis on consumption, potentially alleviating price pressures from both supply and demand sides[3] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and potential global recession alongside unexpected monetary policies from major economies[3]