证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 08 日 AI 军备竞赛持续升级，关注高壁垒软件及云服务 计算机周观察 20260208 TMT 及中小盘/计算机 海外互联网大厂发布季报，资本开支持续超预期。过去一周，微软、META、 亚马逊、谷歌等海外科技大厂先后发布季度财报，四家公司明确表示将持续扩 大 AI 领域的相关投资。SaaS 商业模式遭受质疑，关注高壁垒软件及云服务。 ❑ 亚马逊 AWS 超预期大增，资本开支持续扩大影响自由现金流。亚马逊 25 财 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 285 | 5.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | | 3.8 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | | 3.8 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 2.2 8.8 26.8 相对表现 5.3 -4.1 6.0 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Feb/25 May/25 Sep/25 Jan/26 (%) 计算机 沪深300 相关报告 1、《板块配置进一步下降，服务器、 智驾获机 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the recent volatility in the market is primarily driven by the "Walsh trade," which has led to a rebound in the US dollar index and a significant decline in emerging markets and commodities [2][5][41] - The report suggests that the Hong Kong stock market, particularly the Hang Seng Technology Index, has reached a point of value for investment, indicating potential for a rebound once the impact of the Walsh trade subsides or new catalysts emerge in the AI sector [7][25][44] - The report emphasizes that the market is expected to experience a period of fluctuation in February, with a stronger performance anticipated after the holiday compared to before [2][7][44] Group 2 - The report discusses the structural adjustment in the software industry following the release of Anthropic's AI plugin tool, which poses a threat to traditional software pricing models and has triggered a sell-off in related stocks [6][28][43] - It notes that the Chinese SaaS industry is still in its growth phase, with ongoing digital transformation demands across various sectors, positioning AI as an enabling tool rather than a direct disruptor of existing business models [40][43] - The report indicates that the valuation of technology stocks, particularly in Hong Kong, is at historically low levels, suggesting potential for valuation recovery as the regulatory environment improves [25][44] Group 3 - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including cyclical and technology sectors, with a focus on industries such as electronics, media, machinery, and power equipment, which are expected to benefit from ongoing policy support and seasonal consumption trends [7][44] - It highlights that the market is currently in a spring rally phase, recommending a growth style investment approach, with a preference for larger-cap stocks initially before shifting to smaller-cap stocks [7][44] - The report also points out that the recent volatility in the technology sector is exacerbated by concerns over aggressive capital expenditure plans from major tech companies, which may not yield short-term profitability [38][39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the storage industry, suggesting that the overall performance of companies in the supply chain will be optimistic due to a tight supply situation expected to continue into 2027 [1]. Core Insights - The storage industry is projected to experience a significant increase in demand driven by AI applications, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% for global storage bits, particularly in data centers transitioning to a ZB-level expansion cycle [15][18]. - The supply side is characterized by limited new capacity in 2026, with a forecasted growth of about 20% in bit shipments for both DRAM and NAND, leading to a sustained supply-demand mismatch [49][56]. - The report highlights a notable increase in inventory levels among downstream manufacturers, with strategic stockpiling to address anticipated demand in 2026 [9][60]. - Price trends indicate a significant rise in contract prices for DRAM and NAND, with expectations of a 90-95% and 55-60% increase respectively in Q1 2026, driven by strong server demand [9][30]. Demand Side Summary - The demand for storage is expected to grow exponentially due to AI inference, with NAND becoming increasingly critical in data centers [10][15]. - The global storage market size is anticipated to reach nearly $300 billion in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 39% [15][19]. - Data center storage capacity is projected to shift from EB to ZB levels, with significant contributions from AI-driven applications [18][22]. Supply Side Summary - Capital expenditures from major manufacturers are set to increase significantly in 2026, with Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron expected to invest $20 billion, $20.5 billion, and $13.5 billion respectively [49][56]. - Despite increased capital spending, effective capacity release is expected to be delayed until 2027, maintaining a seller's market [49][56]. - The report notes that the shipment growth for DRAM and NAND is expected to be around 20%, with server applications accounting for over 45% of shipments [50][51]. Inventory Side Summary - The report indicates a significant divergence in inventory levels across the supply chain, with tight inventory conditions expected to persist throughout 2026 [9][60]. - Downstream manufacturers, particularly in mainland China, are actively increasing their inventory levels to prepare for the anticipated supply-demand gap in 2026 [9][60]. Price Side Summary - The report anticipates a continued upward trend in storage prices, with significant increases in contract prices expected due to ongoing supply constraints and strong demand from AI applications [9][30]. - The overall price index for storage products has shown a rapid increase since the second half of 2025, with expectations of further price hikes across all categories [9][30]. Sales Side Summary - The report forecasts a substantial increase in revenue and profit for major manufacturers in the storage industry, driven by the ongoing demand surge and strategic inventory management [9][60]. - The overall industry revenue for DRAM and Flash is projected to reach $551.6 billion in 2026, reflecting a 134% year-on-year increase [9][60].

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2026 年 2 月 5 日 技术面精选成长预期策略表现持续亮眼 风险提示：本报告结果通过历史数据统计、建模和测算完成，在政策、市场环境发 生变化时模型存在失效的风险；本报告所提及个股仅表示与相关主题有一定关联 性，不构成任何投资建议。 任瞳 S1090519080004 rentong@cmschina.com.cn 刘凯 S1090524120001 liukai11@cmschina.com.cn 杨航 S1090523010004 yanghang4@cmschina.com.cn 专题报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 我们在报告《如何找到下一个高增长机会》（2025/11/15）中探讨了公司当前成 长性与未来成长性的关系，通过基本面的筛选构建了预期未来有望持续高增长的 组合；再进一步通过对量价关系的刻画，提升该组合的股价表现，构建了招商技 术面精选成长预期。 ❑ 2012 年以来技术面精选成长预期组合表现非常亮眼，回测区间年化收益超过 40%，夏普比率（1.47）与卡玛比率（1.09）均超过 1。相比中证 500 指 数，组合超额年化收益高达 32%，夏普比率高达 2.8 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2026 年 02 月 05 日 完美世界（002624.SZ） 25 年全年扭亏为盈，游戏业务重回增长轨道 TMT 及中小盘/传媒 公司发布 2025 年年度业绩预告：预计 2025 年度实现归母净利润 7.2-7.6 亿元， 同比扭亏为盈（2024 年亏损 12.88 亿元）；预计实现归母扣非净利润 5.6-6.0 亿元，同比扭亏为盈（2024 年亏损 13.13 亿元）。 单季度看，2025 年第四季度归母净利润预计为 0.54-0.94 亿元，同比扭亏为盈 （2024 年 Q4 亏损 9.0 亿元）；第四季度预计实现归母扣非净利润 0.8-1.2 亿 元，同比扭亏为盈（2024 年 Q4 亏损 8.6 亿元）。报告期内非经常性损益预计 约 1.6 亿元，主要系 Q1 出售乘风工作室产生的处置收益及政府补助。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：17.51 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 1940 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 1828 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 34.0 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 32.0 | ...

信贷投放结构性凸显 1 月金融数据预测 总量研究/银行 金融数据预测表 | 科目 | 2025 年 12 月 | 2026 年 1 | 月（预测） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 社融新增（亿） | 22075 | 70000 | | | 社融增速 | 8.3% | 8.2% | | | 信贷新增（亿） | 9100 | 48000 | | | 信贷增速 | 6.4% | 6.1% | | | M2 增速 | 8.5% | 8.5% | | 资料来源：WIND，招商证券 √ 一月，预计人民币贷款新增 4.8 万亿，贷款增速约 6.1% 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 05 日 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 41 | 0.8 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 10243.2 | 9.1 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 9635.5 | 9.5 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -3.6 -6.5 6.2 相对表现 -4.2 -21.4 -15.9 资料来源：公司数据、招 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2026 年 02 月 04 日 1 月制造业 PMI 环比下降，煤炭价格上涨 ——行业景气观察（0204） 本周景气度改善的方向主要在消费服务和信息技术领域。上游资源品中，煤炭、 石油价格上涨；中游制造领域，新能源产业链价格多数下跌，1 月重卡销量三个 月滚动同比增幅收窄。信息技术中，DDR4 价格边际下行，12 月北美 PCB 订单 量三个月滚动同比增幅扩大。消费服务领域，鸡肉价格、飞天茅台批价上行。春 节临近生产季节性放缓，年末冲刺透支部分需求，拖累 1 月制造业 PMI 环比下 行。推荐景气较高或有改善的煤炭、石油石化、中药、白酒、电力、半导体等。 ❑【本周关注】春节临近生产季节性放缓，去年年末冲刺透支了部分需求，拖累 1 月 制造业 PMI 环比下行，寒潮拖累施工进度，建筑业景气明显下滑，服务业也有放 缓。结构上特征主要有：1）春节临近生产季节性放缓，叠加原材料价格上涨，采 购量明显下滑，或因去年年末冲刺影响，需求偏弱，生产经营预期下行，库存升至 同期较高水平；2）地缘政治风险推升油价和贵金属价格，抬高成本，叠加反内卷 背景下部分行业供给受限，购进价格和出厂价格指数均 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2026 年 02 月 04 日 电源管理芯片营收同环比双增，2026 年稼动率指引回升 VIS 25Q4 跟踪报告 TMT 及中小盘/电子 事件： 世界先进（VIS，5347.TW）于 2 月 3 日发布 25Q4 季报，营收 125.94 亿新台 币，同比+9.0%/环比+2.0%；毛利率 27.5%，符合此前指引，同比-1.2pcts/环 比+0.7pct；归母净利润 17.5 亿新台币，同比-5.4%/环比+2.6%，净利率 13.2%， 同比-2.8pcts/环比-0.4pct，EPS 为 0.93 新台币。晶圆总出货量为 62.6 万片， ASP 为 624 美元/片（折合八英寸），环比+5%。综合财报及交流会议信息，总 结要点如下： 评论： 1、25Q4 营收同环比双增，ASP 环比显著改善。 1）业绩情况：25Q4 公司营收 125.94 亿新台币，同比+9.0%/环比+2.0%，主要 得益于 ASP 增长及有利的汇率环境，部分营收被晶圆出货量下滑抵消；毛利率 27.5%，符合此前指引，同比-1.2pcts/环比+0.7pct；归母净利润 17.48 亿新台 币 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the environmental and public utility sector [2] Core Insights - The environmental and public utility sectors experienced declines, with the environmental index down 2.78% and the public utility index down 1.66%, indicating a larger drop compared to the overall market [6] - The report highlights the establishment of a reliable capacity compensation mechanism for power generation, which aims to ensure fair compensation based on reliable capacity without differentiating between unit types [10] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the power sector, particularly recommending undervalued companies such as Anhui Energy and Huaneng International, while also highlighting long-term prospects for China Resources Power and other firms [6] Summary by Sections Key Event Interpretations - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice to improve the capacity price mechanism, proposing a reliable capacity compensation mechanism based on reliable capacity as a standard [10] - The State Administration of Energy Management encourages the exploration of carbon asset trading and virtual power plants, promoting energy-saving renovations in public institutions [14] Weekly Market Review - Both the environmental and public utility sectors saw declines, with the environmental sector up 5.94% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices [15] - The report notes specific stock performances within the environmental and power sectors, highlighting both top gainers and losers [23][26][27] Key Industry Data Tracking - As of January 30, 2026, the price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal remained stable at 695 CNY/ton, while the price of Indonesian thermal coal at Guangzhou Port was 515 CNY/ton [29] - The report tracks water levels and storage in key reservoirs, noting changes in inflow and outflow rates [31] - LNG prices increased, with the import price at 12.10 CNY/million BTU and domestic ex-factory price at 4045 CNY/ton [42] Industry Key Events - The report outlines significant events in the power market, including various regulatory updates and proposals for long-term market implementation [56][58] - It also discusses developments in the dual-carbon market, emphasizing the promotion of carbon neutrality in large-scale events and the management of fixed asset investment projects [60] Upcoming Events Reminder - The report lists important upcoming announcements from companies in the environmental and power sectors, including stock circulation and equity incentive plans [61]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [2] Core Insights - The company announced a significant profit increase for 2025, with net profit expected to be between 1.43 billion to 1.51 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 331.0% to 355.9% [1] - The fourth quarter performance showed a decline due to a slowdown in orders from major clients, particularly AWS, but the company is expected to benefit from new product launches in Q2 2026 [6] - The company is focusing on high-end market expansion, particularly in AI server and switch PCB business, which is anticipated to drive substantial growth [6] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 32.73 billion in 2023 to 22.12 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 45% [10] - The net profit is expected to increase from a loss of 250 million in 2023 to 4.08 billion in 2027, indicating a strong recovery and growth trajectory [10] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from -2881.5 in 2023 to 17.6 in 2027, reflecting improved profitability [10] Shareholder Information - The major shareholder is Guangdong Shengyi Technology Co., Ltd., holding 62.93% of the shares [2] - The company has a total market capitalization of 72 billion [2] Performance Metrics - The company reported a return on equity (ROE) of 24.4% [2] - The asset-liability ratio stands at 54.0%, indicating a moderate level of financial leverage [2]