证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 10 月 30 日 迎驾贡酒（603198.SH） % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -5 -17 -40 相对表现 -7 -43 -61 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -40 -20 0 20 40 Oct/24 Feb/25 Jun/25 Sep/25 (%) 迎驾贡酒 沪深300 Q3 下滑幅度与 Q2 接近，出清效果逐步显现 消费品/食品饮料 公司发布《2025 年第三季度报告》，25Q3 公司实现营收/归母净利润 13.6 亿 元/3.8 亿元，同比-20.8%/-39.0%。公司 Q3 营收、净利润下滑幅度较 Q2 相仿， 在行业整体大幅出清的背景下显现一定韧性，先于行业进行调整的效果逐步显 现。各产品线单季度调整幅度同比收窄，洞 6、洞 9 在省内市场需求基本平稳， 静候动销企稳后业绩逐步修复。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 6720 | 7344 | 6052 | ...

—10 月美联储议息会议点评 频率：每月 事件：当地时间 2025 年 10 月 29 日，美联储召开议息会议，降息 25BP 至联邦 基金目标利率区间 3.75%-4.00%，12 月 1 日起结束缩表。 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 10 月 30 日 鲍威尔为 12 月降息泼冷水 本次鲍威尔定调偏鹰，给市场过度定价 12 月降息浇冷水，他强调"远非（Far from it）板上钉钉"。此外，美联储内部对 12 月是否降息亦存强烈分歧，美 国政府结束关门后的通胀与就业数据成为 12 月议息会议能否顺利降息的关 键。结束缩表短期是缓解流动性压力，意味着美联储从控总量转向调结构，有 助于缓解近期回购市场波动，美债收益率曲线向正常化方向移动，但此前市场 已有充分预期，亦非更为宽松之举。 资产方面，短期风险资产波动加大，中期仍然看多美股。本次答记者问中鲍威 尔提及美股与 AI 投资时的态度似乎更乐观，在对比 90 年代末的互联网泡沫时 他提到当下估值高的科技企业有盈利支撑，这是与 90 年代最大的不同，AI 投 资也确实是今年美国经济增长的重要来源。考虑到目前标普 500CAPE 已高达 41.1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][6]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in profitability, focusing on its core business strategy, with notable breakthroughs in its Xinchuang and innovative business segments [1][6]. - The company reported a substantial decline in revenue year-on-year, primarily due to a strategic focus on financial technology and a reduction in non-financial IT business scale [6][11]. - Key products are performing well, with advancements in the wealth technology and investment technology sectors, including successful implementations of new trading systems [6][11]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 6,221 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 4% [2][11]. - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 369 million yuan in 2023, reflecting a 37% year-on-year increase [2][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 0.39 yuan, with a projected PE ratio of 43.9 [2][12]. Business Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 1.771 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 49.08% [6][11]. - The financial sector maintained stable performance, generating 1.314 billion yuan in revenue, a slight decrease of 7.14% year-on-year [6][11]. - The company has successfully controlled costs, leading to a significant reduction in losses and improved profitability [6][11]. Future Projections - The company anticipates net profits of 1.03 billion yuan, 2.34 billion yuan, and 2.97 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][11]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for the company's core products, driven by increased market activity and advancements in AI technology [6][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 37.6 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 19.53%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 6.89% to 4.729 billion yuan, indicating strong profit growth despite declining revenue [1][7]. - The company has demonstrated high levels of counter-cyclical management, maintaining profit growth even in a challenging market environment [1][7]. - The report projects revenue growth for the years 2025 to 2027, with expected revenues of 62.152 billion yuan, 65.26 billion yuan, and 68.523 billion yuan respectively, alongside net profits of 5.523 billion yuan, 5.998 billion yuan, and 6.263 billion yuan [7][16]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is expected to have a total revenue of 62.152 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1% [2][16]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 5.523 billion yuan, reflecting a 4% increase compared to the previous year [2][16]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 3.01 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 9.2 [2][16]. Operational Highlights - The company has focused on optimizing its supply chain and inventory management to mitigate risks associated with raw material price fluctuations [7]. - The average price of urea decreased by 18%, while the prices of phosphate fertilizers saw a slight increase of 2% [7]. - The company reported significant sales growth in key products, with phosphate ammonium sales increasing by 20% year-on-year [7]. Financial Ratios - The report indicates a decline in the company's debt ratio, with the debt-to-asset ratio decreasing to 42.5% by 2025 [16]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 23.3% in 2025, reflecting strong profitability [16]. - The current ratio is expected to improve to 1.7 by 2025, indicating better liquidity [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with a net profit increase of 51.48% year-on-year, despite a slight decline in revenue [1][6] - The resilience of coal power generation and significant growth in hydro and wind power generation contributed to the strong performance, even as the average on-grid electricity price continued to decline [6] - The company has improved its profitability levels, with a gross margin of 19.41% and a net margin of 10.54% for the first three quarters [6] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 122.404 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5% [2] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated to reach 6.569 billion yuan, reflecting a 46% increase compared to the previous year [2] - The current PE ratio is 10.8, with projections for 2026 and 2027 at 10.2 and 9.5 respectively [2][10] Performance Metrics - The company achieved an on-grid electricity volume of 822.48 billion kWh in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [6] - The average on-grid electricity price for the first three quarters was 430.19 yuan per MWh, down 4.32% year-on-year [6] - The company's financial expenses decreased by 17.7% year-on-year, further enhancing profitability [6] Shareholder Information - The major shareholder is China Datang Corporation, holding a 35.34% stake in the company [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Anta Sports [10][11]. Core Insights - Anta's main brand and FILA experienced low single-digit revenue growth in Q3 2025, while other brands saw a significant increase of 45%-50% [1][2]. - The company has adjusted its revenue guidance for the main brand to low single-digit growth for the year, while maintaining the forecast for other brands [10]. - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to CNY 13.13 billion, CNY 14.77 billion, and CNY 16.46 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -16%, 12%, and 11% respectively [10]. Revenue Performance - Anta's main brand revenue showed low single-digit growth, with offline sales growing at a low single-digit rate and online sales at a higher single-digit rate [2]. - FILA's revenue also grew at a low single-digit rate, with online sales performing better [3]. - Other brands, including Descente, KOLON, and MAIA, reported substantial revenue growth rates of 30%, 70%, and 45% respectively [4][5][6]. Channel and Market Expansion - The company is exploring new retail formats and optimizing operational efficiency, including the expansion of outdoor segments and increasing coverage in key business districts [10]. - Anta has announced a three-year plan to open 1,000 stores in Southeast Asia and is expanding its presence in the U.S. and European markets [2]. Financial Projections - The projected total revenue for Anta Sports for 2025-2027 is CNY 78.06 billion, CNY 86.73 billion, and CNY 95.55 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 11%, and 10% respectively [10][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at CNY 4.64, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 16.5 for 2025 and 15 for 2026 [10][11]. Key Financial Metrics - The report indicates a return on equity (ROE) of 24.5% and a debt-to-asset ratio of 41% [6]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately CNY 235.9 billion [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for Hangmin Co., Ltd. (600987.SH) [4] Core Views - The company's revenue in Q3 2025 decreased by 12.52% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 5.02%. The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to a reduction in gold processing demand due to rising gold prices, although profit margins have improved [1][2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 726 million, 770 million, and 812 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10X and 9.5X for 2025 and 2026 [1][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue decreased by 6.24% to 8.137 billion yuan, while net profit increased by 1.59% to 483 million yuan. The net profit excluding non-recurring items grew by 3.00% to 472 million yuan [1] - In Q3 2025, revenue was 2.695 billion yuan, down 12.52% year-on-year, and net profit was 168 million yuan, down 5.02% [1] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin improved by 2.74 percentage points to 17.93% for the first three quarters of 2025, despite a net loss of 277 million yuan from fair value changes due to gold leasing [2] - The net profit margin increased by 0.37 percentage points to 6.82% for the first three quarters of 2025 [2] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 11.53 billion, 12.22 billion, and 12.86 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1%, 6%, and 5% [9][10] - The expected net profit for the same years is projected to grow at rates of 1%, 6%, and 6% [9][10] Shareholder Information - The total market capitalization of the company is 7.3 billion yuan, with a current share price of 7.17 yuan and a total share count of 1.021 billion [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for the company [4][7]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue growth of 20.19% year-on-year, reaching 1.054 billion yuan, with a net profit increase of 43.18% to 91 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit growth of 53.69% to 81 million yuan [2][3]. - The company has introduced a mid-term dividend plan, proposing a cash dividend of 0.2 yuan per share, which accounts for 22.3% of the net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters [2]. - The implementation of a major product strategy has significantly improved gross margins, with Q3 gross margin rising by 4.24 percentage points to 44.74% [3][7]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 416 million yuan, 479 million yuan, and 553 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13%, 15%, and 15% respectively [7][9]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue increase of 10.91% to 2.976 billion yuan, with a net profit growth of 10.74% to 232 million yuan [2]. - The operating cash flow for Q3 2025 was 74 million yuan, showing a positive turnaround year-on-year, with inventory turnover days reduced by 11 days to 175 days [7]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 5 billion yuan, with a current share price of 18.98 yuan [4][7]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are set at 4.775 billion yuan, 5.484 billion yuan, and 6.307 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 14%, 15%, and 15% respectively [9][16]. - The report highlights the successful launch of key products, such as ergonomic pillows and ice cream quilts, which are expected to drive future growth [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in its Chinese operations and accelerated growth in overseas markets, with Q3 revenue and net profit increasing by 18.11% and 16.20% year-on-year, respectively, slightly exceeding expectations [1][3]. - The company is benefiting from new consumption trends and channels in China, while its Americas export business is experiencing high growth despite long-term uncertainties related to tariffs. The European market continues to contribute positively with new business breakthroughs [1][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the progress of the BF personal care business divestiture, which is expected to enhance profit elasticity in 2026 [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 3.291 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders of 260 million, reflecting year-on-year growth of 7.96% and 8.53%, respectively [3][5]. - In Q3 alone, the company reported revenue of 1.250 billion and net profit of 99 million, with year-on-year increases of 18.11% and 16.20% [3][5]. - The gross margin improved to 30.76%, up by 1.12 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to optimized pricing strategies and cost reduction efforts [3][5]. - The company expects EPS of 1.17 yuan and 1.33 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a valuation of 20X for 2025 [1][4].

Investment Rating - Strongly Recommended (Maintain) [3] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 100.52 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.63%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 32.69% to 5.32 billion yuan [1] - The company's revenue from computing power increased by 180% year-on-year, accounting for 25% of total revenue, becoming the second-largest revenue pillar after consumer business [7] - The operator network revenue faced pressure due to a decline in domestic telecom infrastructure investment, while the enterprise business grew by 130% year-on-year [7] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 289.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 5.11%, but the net profit dropped by 87.84% to 264 million yuan [7] - The company’s R&D expenses for the first three quarters were 17.81 billion yuan, accounting for 18% of revenue, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [7] - The projected total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 140.51 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 16% [9] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on a "connection + computing power" strategy, enhancing its AI infrastructure deployment [7] - The company maintains a strong market share in core areas, with its 5G base station and core network shipments ranking second globally [7] - The consumer business, including home and personal segments, accounted for 25% of total revenue, showing robust growth [7] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 32.6 for 2025, indicating a valuation that reflects growth expectations [9] - The price-to-book (PB) ratio is expected to be 3.1 for 2025, suggesting a premium valuation relative to book value [9]