Group 1 - The report analyzes the current factors influencing the rotation between large-cap and small-cap stocks in the A-share market, suggesting that the market may be transitioning from a liquidity expansion phase to a stage where large-cap stocks could gradually outperform [1][2][30] - The report identifies a four-stage liquidity cycle that affects the performance of large-cap and small-cap stocks, with distinct characteristics for each stage: contraction phase favors large-caps, phase one expansion favors small-caps, phase two expansion favors large-caps, and phase three expansion sees small-caps regain strength [6][24][30] - The report constructs a mixed-frequency rotation and timing system based on liquidity indicators, which has shown excellent strategy returns, with annualized excess returns of 12.43% for the large-cap and small-cap rotation strategy since 2014 [6][10][30] Group 2 - The report highlights that the A-share market has experienced two main cycles of large-cap and small-cap rotation since 2004, with small-caps outperforming from 2004 to 2015 and large-caps dominating from 2016 to 2024 [25][30] - The report discusses the impact of macroeconomic factors on the performance of small-cap stocks, noting that the decline in speculative attributes and merger values has shifted the focus to liquidity as the primary driver of relative performance [14][30] - The report emphasizes that the current high valuation premium of small-cap stocks in the A-share market is likely to persist due to systemic factors, suggesting that valuation metrics may serve more as synchronous indicators rather than predictive signals [34][40][42]

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 09 月 04 日 价格因素令主动去库钝化 —2025 年 6 月美国行业库存数据点评 频率：每月 事件：2025 年 9 月 1 日，BEA 发布 2025 年 6 月美国分行业库存和销售数 据。6 月美国库存总额同比 2.89%，前值 2.64%；6 月销售总额同比 3.94%， 前值 3.32%。今年 4 月以来美国已由被动补库切换至主动去库，但由于在途运 输、关税执行效率、企业尚未充分向消费者提价等因素，美国的关税通胀冲击 可能会更慢更久，这使得本轮主动去库明显钝化。事实上，4-6 月美国实际库 存同比分别为 2.2%、1.6%、1.3%，3 月以来全球贸易量价也出现明显背离， 但不可否认目前美国乃至全球已处于主动去库阶段。 1）石油、天然气与消费用燃料：23 年 7 月-24 年 5 月处于主动补库，24 年 6 月进入主动去库，截至 25 年 6 月处于主动去库。 2）化学制品：24 年 8 月-25 年 3 月处于被动补库，25 年 4 月进入主动去 库，截至 25 年 6 月处于主动去库。 3）建筑材料：24 年 2-9 月处于主动补库，24 年 ...

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for August recorded at 49.4%, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.1 percentage points, remaining below the expansion line for five consecutive months [13] - The non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion for 32 months [13] - The overall economic environment is characterized by rising raw material prices, improved production expectations, and increased downstream procurement demand, supporting the recovery of the manufacturing PMI [21] Industry Overview Information Technology - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and Taiwan Semiconductor Index both declined, while the DXI Index increased by 1.67% to 89861.27 points [23] - The price of DDR5 DRAM memory increased by 1.05% to $6.05, while the NAND Index decreased by 0.08% [26] - In July, North American PCB shipments and order volumes turned positive, with shipments up 20.70% year-on-year [28] Midstream Manufacturing - The photovoltaic price index increased, with prices for battery cells, modules, and silicon wafers all rising [22] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput showed a year-on-year increase, indicating improved logistics activity [22] Consumer Demand - The average retail sales for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines turned positive year-on-year, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [22] - Movie ticket prices increased, while box office revenues showed a decline, reflecting mixed trends in the entertainment sector [22] Resource Products - The price of Brent crude oil rose by 3.01%, while most industrial metal prices declined, with copper and cobalt prices increasing [22] - The national cement price index decreased, indicating a slowdown in construction activity [22] Financial Real Estate - The land transaction premium rate increased, and the area of commodity housing transactions rose, suggesting a slight recovery in the real estate market [22] - The A-share turnover rate and daily trading volume increased, reflecting heightened market activity [22] Public Utilities - Domestic natural gas ex-factory prices decreased, while UK natural gas futures prices also fell [22]

Market Style Outlook - The current liquidity-driven environment remains the main characteristic of the short-term stock market, with changes in market risk appetite dominating market rhythm. As September approaches, the anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to influence market expectations. The current heat of financing funds has reached a relatively high level, and future inflows may slow down slightly. However, with the potential for the Fed to restart rate cuts, the appreciation of the RMB, and the stabilization of domestic PPI, foreign capital may gradually shift towards inflow. Historically, during the pullback phase of a bull market, previously strong styles may experience larger corrections, but the market quickly returns to the previous strong main style after a brief pullback. Therefore, the market style in September is likely to favor large-cap stocks, with growth styles expected to continue to dominate [1][4][12]. Liquidity and Fund Supply-Demand - In September, incremental funds are expected to continue net inflow, with positive feedback from incremental funds likely to persist. The central bank continues to use various liquidity management tools to meet liquidity needs, maintaining a strong willingness to protect liquidity. The overall funding rates are expected to remain low. External liquidity conditions are also favorable, with market expectations for a high probability of a Fed rate cut in September, which may lead to a weaker dollar index. In August, the net inflow of funds in the stock market expanded significantly, with financing funds becoming the main source of incremental capital. The supply side shows a rebound in the scale of newly issued equity funds, and the market's risk appetite continues to improve [2][3][20]. Market Sentiment and Fund Preference - In August, market risk appetite further rebounded, with the overall A-share risk premium falling below the historical average. Major indices broke through previous resistance levels, showing an accelerated upward trend. The technology style performed well, with the ChiNext 50 and the Growth Enterprise Market leading the gains. The performance of sectors related to communication electronics and AI computing was particularly strong, with notable performances in computer, power equipment, and machinery sectors [3][31][41]. Major Asset Performance Review - The A-share market led global markets in August, with major indices breaking previous loss resistance levels and showing an accelerated upward trend. The market's upward slope has slowed down towards the end of August, with a shift in style from small-cap to large-cap stocks. The ChiNext 50 and small-cap growth indices led the gains, while the value and dividend styles performed relatively weakly [31][36][37].

仕佳光子（688313.SH） 光芯片领先供应商，从"无源+有源"迈向光电集成 TMT 及中小盘/通信 仕佳光子人才积淀深厚、高管及技术骨干普遍持股、重要股东稳定，公司聚焦 当前股价：78.7 元 光通信核心技术，逐步实现 AWG 等无源光芯片突破及放量、成功研发 CW 和 EML 等有源光芯片，并实现 MPO 的横向协同布局，并购 MT 插芯国产龙头福 可喜玛将进一步强化公司 MPO、MT-FA 等高密度光传输器件的竞争力。 ❑ 风险提示：技术升级风险、研发失败风险、人才流失风险、贸易摩擦风险。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 755 | 1075 | 2286 | 3609 | 5290 | | 同比增长 | -16% | 42% | 113% | 58% | 47% | | 营业利润(百万元) | (50) | 70 | 559 | 1018 | 1584 | | 同比增长 | -178% | -240% | 699% | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Add" for the company [4] Core Views - The company's revenue is expected to return to growth in the second half of 2025, driven by strategic adjustments and improved profitability [8] - The company has demonstrated resilience in revenue despite a slight decline, attributed to strategic store closures and a slowdown in new store openings [8] - The company is focusing on steady regional expansion and optimizing its store network, with a net increase of 17 stores in the first half of 2025 [8] - The company is diversifying its operations, exploring new growth avenues through a new retail ecosystem based on membership, big data, and online healthcare [8] - Profitability is projected to improve, with net profit estimates for 2025-2027 at 17.24 billion, 19.89 billion, and 22.82 billion respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 17, 15, and 13 [8] Financial Data and Valuation - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 117.22 billion and a net profit of 8.80 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of -0.34% and 10.32% respectively [1] - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 225.88 billion in 2023 to 305.71 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10% [3][10] - The gross profit margin is expected to stabilize around 40% from 2025 onwards, reflecting improved operational efficiency [11] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 14.4% in the latest period to 17.0% by 2027 [4][11] Stock Performance - The company's stock has shown a 24% increase over the past 12 months, although it has underperformed relative to the market index in the last 6 and 12 months [6]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 09 月 03 日 冠盛股份（605088.SH） 北美无惧关税扰动，非经常项目和减值拖累盈利 中游制造/汽车 公司 Q2 收入 11.4 亿元，同比/环比+1.2%/+27.7%；Q2 归母净利润 0.8 亿元， 同比/环比-14.8%/-7.3%。上半年北美收入 5.3 亿元，同比+18.8%，体现强劲的 增长韧性。维持"增持"评级。 ❑ 减值和非经常项目影响盈利，毛利率稳定。 ❑ 风险提示：汇率波动、海外需求波动、贸易战风险 | 财务数据与估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 3180 | 4020 | 4507 | 5177 | 5953 | | 同比增长 | 8% | 26% | 12% | 15% | 15% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 337 | 335 | 435 | 530 | 634 | | 同比增长 | 21% | -1% | 30% | 22% | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.112 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.665 billion yuan, up 6.87% year-on-year [1]. - The recovery of internet clients has been a significant driver of growth, with advertising spending from the internet sector reaching 962 million yuan, a substantial increase of 88.82% year-on-year [7]. - The company is in the process of acquiring New Wave Media, which is expected to enhance profitability and strengthen bargaining power with upstream property owners [7]. - The innovative "Tap" model, launched in collaboration with Alipay, aims to enhance consumer engagement and drive revenue growth by linking brand exposure to consumer conversion [7]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit of 2.665 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a non-recurring net profit of 2.465 billion yuan, reflecting a 12.17% year-on-year increase [1]. - For the fiscal years 2023 to 2027, the projected revenue growth rates are 26%, 3%, 6%, 4%, and 4% respectively, with net profit growth rates of 73%, 7%, 8%, 4%, and 4% [2][11]. - The company has maintained a high dividend payout policy, distributing 3.322 billion yuan in dividends for the 2024 fiscal year and planning to distribute 1.444 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 [7]. Business Segments - The core business segment, building media, generated 5.632 billion yuan in revenue, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.30% [7]. - The company operates approximately 1.287 million elevator TV media devices and 1.685 million elevator poster media devices as of July 31, 2025 [7]. Market Position - The company has established a strong position in the market, with a total market capitalization of 12 billion yuan and a return on equity (ROE) of 32.6% [3][7]. - The report indicates that the company is well-positioned to benefit from new industry trends and the orderly development of overseas business [7].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 09 月 03 日 万达电影（002739.SZ） 主业内容后续储备充足，持续探索新消费业务拉动未来 增长 公司发布 25H1 报告，报告期内实现营收 66.89 亿元，同比增长 7.57%；实现 归母净利润 5.36 亿，同比增长 372.55%；实现归母扣非净利润 4.8 亿，同比增 长 455.35%；经营性活动现金流 16.28 亿元，同比增长 203.10%。 强烈推荐（维持） TMT 及中小盘/传媒 目标估值：NA 当前股价：11.29 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 2112 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 2085 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 23.8 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 23.5 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 3.6 | | ROE（TTM） | -6.9 | | 资产负债率 | 67.2% | | 主要股东 | 北京万达投资有限公司 | | 主要股东持股比例 | 20.64% | 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -4 -0 15 相对表现 -14 -16 -23 资料来源：公 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 09 月 03 日 地平线机器人-W（09660.HK） 25H1 营收高增长，看好下半年 HSD 放量、中长期出海空间 TMT 及中小盘/电子 事件：公司发布 2025H1 半年报业绩公告，上半年营收 15.7 亿元，同比+67.6%， 经调整亏损净额-13.3 亿元，亏损幅度同比扩大 65.7%，毛利率 65.4%，同比 -13.7pct。我们点评如下： 增持（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：9.56 港元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 13881 | | --- | --- | | 香港股（百万股） | 11757 | | 总市值（十亿港元） | 132.7 | | 香港股市值（十亿港元） | 112.4 | | 每股净资产（港元） | 0.8 | | ROE（TTM） | 20.5 | | 资产负债率 | 51.2% | | 主要股东 | Porsche Automobil Holding | | | SE | | 主要股东持股比例 | 17.1859% | 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 38 -1 140 相对表现 34 -12 9 ...