证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2026 年 02 月 25 日 汇聚科技（01729.HK） 配售募资注入强劲动能，战略投资及海外扩张加速 TMT 及中小盘/电子 事件：汇聚科技于 2026 年 2 月 20 日发布完成根据一般授权配售新股份公告， 合共 108,000,000 股配售股份，已成功配售予不少于六名承配人，配售价为每 股 15.22 港元，配售事项所得款项净额约为 1,634.5 百万港元。我们点评如下： 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：17.94 港元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 2091 | | --- | --- | | 香港股（百万股） | 2091 | | 总市值（十亿港元） | 37.5 | | 香港股市值（十亿港元） | 37.5 | | 每股净资产（港元） | 0.9 | | ROE（TTM） | 23.2 | | 资产负债率 | 74.8% | | 主要股东 | 立讯精密有限公司 | | 主要股东持股比例 | 70.7069% | 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 7 76 288 相对表现 8 71 274 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -10 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司深度报告 2026 年 02 月 25 日 永臻股份（603381.SH） 现有海外边框产能具备稀缺性，有望带来超额回报 中游制造/电力设备及新能源 公司是光伏铝边框领先企业，相较同行有较明显的成本优势。公司较早就前瞻布局 越南、美国产能，主要面向印度、美国等海外市场，其加工费和利润显著高于国内。 考虑 Tesla 将在北美本土扩产，而海外边框产能存在缺口，公司海外产能具备稀缺 性，未来几年现有的海外产能有望带来较大业绩弹性。 ❑ 风险提示：行业需求不及预期、海外基地管理风险，新的贸易政策风险。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营 业 总 收 入 ( 百 万 | | 5391 | 8183 | 12029 | 13713 | 17621 | | 元) | 同比增长 | 4% | 52% | 47% | 14% | 28% | | 营业利润(百万元) | | 413 | 216 | (234) | 485 | 874 ...

Market Performance - Historically, A-shares tend to perform well in the two weeks leading up to the National People's Congress (NPC), with a probability of over 50% for indices like the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 to rise, averaging over 3% returns in the two weeks prior [9][18] - After the NPC, the probability of market increases rises significantly, with indices like the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 showing a 64% probability of rising in the weeks following the congress [9][18] Style Performance - There is a calendar effect observed in A-shares around the NPC, where small-cap stocks generally outperform both before and after the congress, driven by expectations of stable growth policies and active financing [12][18] - The small-cap growth and value styles are expected to dominate during the NPC period, while large-cap styles may gain traction in the month following the congress [12][18] Industry Performance - Industries such as basic chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and construction materials show strong performance before and after the NPC, with over 50% probability of rising in the weeks leading up to the congress [14][18] - Post-NPC, industries like real estate, construction materials, and consumer goods are expected to see higher probabilities of increases as stable growth policies are implemented [16][18] Liquidity and Funding - The liquidity indicators show a net outflow of financing funds amounting to 830.2 billion yuan, with a significant drop in ETF inflows [30][36] - The issuance of public funds increased by 340.3 million units, indicating a rise in demand for equity investments despite the overall net outflow [30][36] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment has shown a decrease in trading activity, with the proportion of financing transactions in A-share trading falling to 8.6% [44] - The VIX index has decreased, indicating improved risk appetite in the market, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices also showing positive performance [46][48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Recommended" for the aviation industry, indicating a positive outlook based on improving fundamentals and demand recovery [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong demand for air travel during the 2026 Spring Festival, with domestic passenger flow increasing by 6.5% year-on-year and international passenger flow by 4.4% [6][9]. - The average domestic ticket price rose by 3.3% to 931 yuan, while the average passenger load factor improved by 1.4 percentage points to 85.5% [9]. - Supply growth is robust, with a 6.9% year-on-year increase in available seat kilometers (ASK) during the Spring Festival period, and aircraft utilization rates have also improved significantly [20]. - The average flight distance increased slightly by 1.7% to 1394 kilometers, contributing to a 1.7% year-on-year improvement in average revenue per passenger kilometer [29]. - International routes, particularly to Southeast Asia and South Korea, have seen rapid growth, with a 5.1% increase in passenger volume [37]. Summary by Sections 1. Overall Demand - The total passenger flow for the first 20 days of the Spring Festival reached 47.49 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [9]. 2. Supply Side - The supply side has expanded orderly, with narrow-body aircraft utilization significantly contributing to growth [20]. 3. Revenue Levels - The average revenue per passenger kilometer improved, reflecting changes in travel patterns and network adjustments [29]. 4. Airports - Ticket prices at major tourist and provincial airports have shown strong growth, with notable increases in passenger numbers [32]. 5. International Routes - There has been a notable increase in passenger flow to destinations like Thailand and South Korea, indicating a recovery in international travel [37]. 6. Oil Prices and Exchange Rates - Brent crude oil prices have risen to 71.8 USD per barrel, while the exchange rate for the US dollar against the offshore yuan has shown slight improvement [39].

地缘局势动荡叠加行业定价能力提升，看好油轮景气度 油轮行业跟踪报告 周期/交通运输 近期 VLCC 运价创新高，展望未来多重利好仍在持续兑现，建议重视油轮弹性。 证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2026 年 02 月 24 日 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 129 | 2.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3211.6 | 2.9 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 3013.7 | 3.0 | 3、《招商交通运输行业周报—地缘 情绪推升油运运价，三大航发布 2025 年业绩预告》2026-02-01 | 王春环 | S1090524060003 | wangchunhuan@cmschina.com.c | | --- | --- | --- | | n | 孙修远 | S1090524070005 | | sunxiuyuan@cmschina.com.cn | 肖欣晨 | S1090522010001 | | xiaoxinchen@cmschina.com.cn | 刘若琮 | S1090524110003 | | liur ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Alibaba, Pinduoduo, JD Group, and Vipshop, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the e-commerce sector [10][11]. Core Insights - The e-commerce sector is expected to see stable profit growth, with Alibaba Cloud's revenue accelerating and the potential for AI cloud business growth. The report highlights the low valuations of leading e-commerce companies [1][10]. - In the local lifestyle segment, Meituan's long-term competitiveness and investment value remain intact despite competitive disruptions [11]. - The travel sector is projected to maintain high growth, with recommendations to focus on OTA and scenic spots closely related to outbound tourism, as well as transportation and hotels driven by business travel demand [1][11]. Industry Scale - The industry comprises 131 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 1,292.5 billion and a circulating market value of 1,199.0 billion [3]. Industry Index Performance - The absolute performance of the industry index shows increases of 3.7% over one month, 12.7% over six months, and 20.3% over twelve months [4]. Key Company Investment Recommendations and Valuations - **Alibaba**: Expected to benefit from the pricing power in the cloud market, with projected non-GAAP net profits of 924 billion, 1,344 billion, and 1,809 billion for FY2026-2028. Target price set at 194 HKD per share [10]. - **Pinduoduo**: Anticipated non-GAAP net profits of 1,158 billion, 1,323 billion, and 1,625 billion for 2025-2027, with a target price range of 139-174 USD per share [10]. - **JD Group**: Projected non-GAAP net profits of 264 billion, 327 billion, and 510 billion for 2025-2027, with a target price of 125-150 HKD per share [10]. - **Vipshop**: Expected non-GAAP net profits of 88 billion, 94 billion, and 96 billion for 2025-2027, with a target price of 24.74 USD per share [11]. Major Industry News - Alibaba released the Qwen 3.5 model, which has shown excellent performance in various benchmarks, enhancing productivity for developers and enterprises [19][20]. - During the Spring Festival, the Qianwen app facilitated nearly 200 million orders, indicating a significant increase in user engagement and transaction volume [21]. - ByteDance launched the Doubao 2.0 model, optimized for large-scale production environments, enhancing its capabilities in complex task execution [22].

证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2026 年 02 月 24 日 信心逐步企稳 白酒春节渠道跟踪报告 消费品/食品饮料 本篇报告重点反馈河南、江苏、四川、山东、安徽等地白酒渠道春节动销情况， 综合来看，26 年春节期间行业动销符合节前预期（双位数下滑），各价格带分 化延续，高端与大众价格带韧性较强、次高端有一定压力。政商务延续承压， 大众消费场景需求提振显著、占比持续提升。除茅台、五粮液等强势品牌外， 多数品牌不再要求开门红，节后库存低于去年同期，渠道压力继续释放，叠加 费用兑付周期加快，经销商与终端信心逐步企稳。价格侧考虑到茅台供需具备 支撑，其他多品牌价格调整接近触底、26 年不再强压任务，后续淡季下探空间 有限，春节后行业配置建议精选强势头部品牌与动销超预期品种。 ❑ 26 年春节动销符合预期、品牌分化延续、渠道信心逐步企稳。 1）行业整体动销方面：26 年春节期间行业动销符合节前预期（双位数下滑）， 分价格带来看，高端与大众价格带韧性较强、次高端具有一定压力。分消费 场景来看，政商务需求仍然承压，家庭消费与个人聚饮等大众消费需求明显 提振，占比持续提升，悦己属性不断强化。 2）任务执行进度方面：当前除 ...

本篇报告梳理了春节假期科技相关热点。全球多个 AI 大模型在春节期间发布重 磅更新，国产 AI 模型算力持续紧张。春晚带动机器人搜索量大增，宇树科技三 登春晚，我国机器人技术持续突破，产业商业化应用渐行渐近。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 285 | 5.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 4481.3 | 4.0 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 3977.0 | 3.9 | 行业指数 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 23 日 春节假期科技热点梳理 计算机周观察 20260223 TMT 及中小盘/计算机 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -6.6 13.6 16.7 相对表现 -4.5 2.1 -2.6 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Feb/25 Jun/25 Sep/25 Jan/26 (%) 计算机 沪深300 相关报告 1、《AI 军备竞赛持续升级，关注高 壁垒软件及云服务——计算机周观察 20260208》2026-02-08 2、《AI 入口大战开启 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for the company, with a target valuation corresponding to a PE of 12X [1][11]. Core Insights - The company, Aorijin, is positioned as a leading player in the metal packaging industry, with expected profit recovery driven by industry improvements, accelerated overseas expansion, and product innovation [1][11]. - The company’s revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 reached 18.346 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.97%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.076 billion yuan, up 41.40% year-on-year, largely due to the acquisition of COFCO Packaging [1][16]. Summary by Sections Aorijin: Metal Packaging Leader, Profit Improvement Expected - Aorijin has a solid foundation in three-piece can business and has expanded into two-piece can business since 2012 through self-built capacity and acquisitions, including COFCO Packaging in 2025 [1][16]. - The company’s net profit is projected to be 1.16 billion yuan, 1.20 billion yuan, and 1.34 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a recovery in profitability [1][11]. Two-Piece Can: Profitability Needs Repair, Company Actively Seeks Breakthroughs - The domestic beer canning rate is expected to rise to 32% by 2024, with significant room for growth compared to developed countries [2][36]. - The company’s two-piece can production capacity is expected to reach nearly 300 billion cans after the acquisition of COFCO Packaging, enhancing market share and pricing power [3][11]. Three-Piece Can: Healthy Industry Development, Improved Customer Structure - The demand for three-piece cans in China is steadily increasing, with a relatively strong profitability compared to two-piece cans [5][9]. - The company has reduced its reliance on major customers, with the largest customer’s revenue share decreasing from 72% in 2013 to 36% in 2024 [9][11]. New Business: Integrated Industry Chain Layout, Gaining Initiative - Aorijin is expanding into the consumer and health sectors with its own brand products, including sports nutrition drinks and pre-prepared meals, leveraging its metal packaging capabilities [11][16]. - The company’s revenue from metal packaging products is projected to be 23.08 billion yuan, 24.47 billion yuan, and 26.06 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 69%, 6%, and 6% [11][10].

Group 1: Political Developments - Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida won the election, leading to a 5% surge in the Nikkei index, with expectations for proactive fiscal policies[5] - Kishida's victory is attributed to effective campaign strategies, converting personal support into party support, while policy discussions remain limited[10] - Kishida's upcoming visit to the U.S. in March and Trump's anticipated visit to China in April are key focus points, with discussions expected on U.S. investments in Japan and strategic issues regarding China[5] Group 2: International Relations - The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to expectations surrounding Trump's visit to China in April, emphasizing the importance of high-level diplomatic engagement[15] - Ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are set for February 17, with potential military actions considered if talks fail[6] - The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs is expected on February 20, which may provide the Trump administration with more leeway in trade policies[6] Group 3: Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,082.07, reflecting a 0.4% increase for the week, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.4%[6] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 1.2%, and the S&P 500 fell by 1.4% during the same period[6] - Brent crude oil prices dropped to $67.73, a 0.5% decline, while COMEX gold prices increased by 1.5% to $5,063.80[6]