Market Performance - Historically, A-shares tend to perform well in the two weeks leading up to the National People's Congress (NPC), with a probability of over 50% for indices like the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 to rise, averaging over 3% returns in the two weeks prior [9][18] - After the NPC, the probability of market increases rises significantly, with indices like the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 showing a 64% probability of rising in the weeks following the congress [9][18] Style Performance - There is a calendar effect observed in A-shares around the NPC, where small-cap stocks generally outperform both before and after the congress, driven by expectations of stable growth policies and active financing [12][18] - The small-cap growth and value styles are expected to dominate during the NPC period, while large-cap styles may gain traction in the month following the congress [12][18] Industry Performance - Industries such as basic chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and construction materials show strong performance before and after the NPC, with over 50% probability of rising in the weeks leading up to the congress [14][18] - Post-NPC, industries like real estate, construction materials, and consumer goods are expected to see higher probabilities of increases as stable growth policies are implemented [16][18] Liquidity and Funding - The liquidity indicators show a net outflow of financing funds amounting to 830.2 billion yuan, with a significant drop in ETF inflows [30][36] - The issuance of public funds increased by 340.3 million units, indicating a rise in demand for equity investments despite the overall net outflow [30][36] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment has shown a decrease in trading activity, with the proportion of financing transactions in A-share trading falling to 8.6% [44] - The VIX index has decreased, indicating improved risk appetite in the market, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices also showing positive performance [46][48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Recommended" for the aviation industry, indicating a positive outlook based on improving fundamentals and demand recovery [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong demand for air travel during the 2026 Spring Festival, with domestic passenger flow increasing by 6.5% year-on-year and international passenger flow by 4.4% [6][9]. - The average domestic ticket price rose by 3.3% to 931 yuan, while the average passenger load factor improved by 1.4 percentage points to 85.5% [9]. - Supply growth is robust, with a 6.9% year-on-year increase in available seat kilometers (ASK) during the Spring Festival period, and aircraft utilization rates have also improved significantly [20]. - The average flight distance increased slightly by 1.7% to 1394 kilometers, contributing to a 1.7% year-on-year improvement in average revenue per passenger kilometer [29]. - International routes, particularly to Southeast Asia and South Korea, have seen rapid growth, with a 5.1% increase in passenger volume [37]. Summary by Sections 1. Overall Demand - The total passenger flow for the first 20 days of the Spring Festival reached 47.49 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [9]. 2. Supply Side - The supply side has expanded orderly, with narrow-body aircraft utilization significantly contributing to growth [20]. 3. Revenue Levels - The average revenue per passenger kilometer improved, reflecting changes in travel patterns and network adjustments [29]. 4. Airports - Ticket prices at major tourist and provincial airports have shown strong growth, with notable increases in passenger numbers [32]. 5. International Routes - There has been a notable increase in passenger flow to destinations like Thailand and South Korea, indicating a recovery in international travel [37]. 6. Oil Prices and Exchange Rates - Brent crude oil prices have risen to 71.8 USD per barrel, while the exchange rate for the US dollar against the offshore yuan has shown slight improvement [39].

地缘局势动荡叠加行业定价能力提升，看好油轮景气度 油轮行业跟踪报告 周期/交通运输 近期 VLCC 运价创新高，展望未来多重利好仍在持续兑现，建议重视油轮弹性。 证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2026 年 02 月 24 日 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 129 | 2.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3211.6 | 2.9 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 3013.7 | 3.0 | 3、《招商交通运输行业周报—地缘 情绪推升油运运价，三大航发布 2025 年业绩预告》2026-02-01 | 王春环 | S1090524060003 | wangchunhuan@cmschina.com.c | | --- | --- | --- | | n | 孙修远 | S1090524070005 | | sunxiuyuan@cmschina.com.cn | 肖欣晨 | S1090522010001 | | xiaoxinchen@cmschina.com.cn | 刘若琮 | S1090524110003 | | liur ...

阿里云发布并开源 QWEN 3.5，千问 APP 春节下单 2 亿次 商贸社服行业周报 消费品/商业 本周子板块相关观点：1）电商：看好阿里云收入加速增长及 AI 云业务成长潜 力，关注大模型及自研芯片催化，推荐阿里巴巴；龙头电商公司估值低位，推 荐拼多多、京东集团、唯品会。2）本地生活：美团竞争扰动不改公司长期竞争 力与投资价值。3）出行：看好后续旅游板块延续高景气度，旅游产业链上，推 荐关注休闲旅游&出境游相关性较强的 OTA、景区，其次是与出行人次高度相 关的交通，以及商旅需求驱动的酒店。 字节发布豆包大模型 2.0。2 月 14 日豆包正式发布大模型 2.0 版本。豆包 2.0 （Doubao-Seed-2.0）围绕大规模生产环境下的使用需求做了系统性优化， 依托高效推理、多模态理解与复杂指令执行能力，更好地完成真实世界复 杂任务。豆包 2.0 系列包含 Pro、Lite、Mini 三款通用 Agent 模型和 Code 模型，灵活适配各类业务场景：1）豆包 2.0 Pro 面向深度推理与长链路任 务执行场景，全面对标 GPT 5.2 与 Gemini 3 Pro；2）2.0 Lite 兼顾性能与 成 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2026 年 02 月 24 日 信心逐步企稳 白酒春节渠道跟踪报告 消费品/食品饮料 本篇报告重点反馈河南、江苏、四川、山东、安徽等地白酒渠道春节动销情况， 综合来看，26 年春节期间行业动销符合节前预期（双位数下滑），各价格带分 化延续，高端与大众价格带韧性较强、次高端有一定压力。政商务延续承压， 大众消费场景需求提振显著、占比持续提升。除茅台、五粮液等强势品牌外， 多数品牌不再要求开门红，节后库存低于去年同期，渠道压力继续释放，叠加 费用兑付周期加快，经销商与终端信心逐步企稳。价格侧考虑到茅台供需具备 支撑，其他多品牌价格调整接近触底、26 年不再强压任务，后续淡季下探空间 有限，春节后行业配置建议精选强势头部品牌与动销超预期品种。 ❑ 26 年春节动销符合预期、品牌分化延续、渠道信心逐步企稳。 1）行业整体动销方面：26 年春节期间行业动销符合节前预期（双位数下滑）， 分价格带来看，高端与大众价格带韧性较强、次高端具有一定压力。分消费 场景来看，政商务需求仍然承压，家庭消费与个人聚饮等大众消费需求明显 提振，占比持续提升，悦己属性不断强化。 2）任务执行进度方面：当前除 ...

本篇报告梳理了春节假期科技相关热点。全球多个 AI 大模型在春节期间发布重 磅更新，国产 AI 模型算力持续紧张。春晚带动机器人搜索量大增，宇树科技三 登春晚，我国机器人技术持续突破，产业商业化应用渐行渐近。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 285 | 5.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 4481.3 | 4.0 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 3977.0 | 3.9 | 行业指数 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 23 日 春节假期科技热点梳理 计算机周观察 20260223 TMT 及中小盘/计算机 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -6.6 13.6 16.7 相对表现 -4.5 2.1 -2.6 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Feb/25 Jun/25 Sep/25 Jan/26 (%) 计算机 沪深300 相关报告 1、《AI 军备竞赛持续升级，关注高 壁垒软件及云服务——计算机周观察 20260208》2026-02-08 2、《AI 入口大战开启 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for the company, with a target valuation corresponding to a PE of 12X [1][11]. Core Insights - The company, Aorijin, is positioned as a leading player in the metal packaging industry, with expected profit recovery driven by industry improvements, accelerated overseas expansion, and product innovation [1][11]. - The company’s revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 reached 18.346 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.97%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.076 billion yuan, up 41.40% year-on-year, largely due to the acquisition of COFCO Packaging [1][16]. Summary by Sections Aorijin: Metal Packaging Leader, Profit Improvement Expected - Aorijin has a solid foundation in three-piece can business and has expanded into two-piece can business since 2012 through self-built capacity and acquisitions, including COFCO Packaging in 2025 [1][16]. - The company’s net profit is projected to be 1.16 billion yuan, 1.20 billion yuan, and 1.34 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a recovery in profitability [1][11]. Two-Piece Can: Profitability Needs Repair, Company Actively Seeks Breakthroughs - The domestic beer canning rate is expected to rise to 32% by 2024, with significant room for growth compared to developed countries [2][36]. - The company’s two-piece can production capacity is expected to reach nearly 300 billion cans after the acquisition of COFCO Packaging, enhancing market share and pricing power [3][11]. Three-Piece Can: Healthy Industry Development, Improved Customer Structure - The demand for three-piece cans in China is steadily increasing, with a relatively strong profitability compared to two-piece cans [5][9]. - The company has reduced its reliance on major customers, with the largest customer’s revenue share decreasing from 72% in 2013 to 36% in 2024 [9][11]. New Business: Integrated Industry Chain Layout, Gaining Initiative - Aorijin is expanding into the consumer and health sectors with its own brand products, including sports nutrition drinks and pre-prepared meals, leveraging its metal packaging capabilities [11][16]. - The company’s revenue from metal packaging products is projected to be 23.08 billion yuan, 24.47 billion yuan, and 26.06 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 69%, 6%, and 6% [11][10].

Group 1: Political Developments - Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida won the election, leading to a 5% surge in the Nikkei index, with expectations for proactive fiscal policies[5] - Kishida's victory is attributed to effective campaign strategies, converting personal support into party support, while policy discussions remain limited[10] - Kishida's upcoming visit to the U.S. in March and Trump's anticipated visit to China in April are key focus points, with discussions expected on U.S. investments in Japan and strategic issues regarding China[5] Group 2: International Relations - The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to expectations surrounding Trump's visit to China in April, emphasizing the importance of high-level diplomatic engagement[15] - Ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are set for February 17, with potential military actions considered if talks fail[6] - The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs is expected on February 20, which may provide the Trump administration with more leeway in trade policies[6] Group 3: Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,082.07, reflecting a 0.4% increase for the week, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.4%[6] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 1.2%, and the S&P 500 fell by 1.4% during the same period[6] - Brent crude oil prices dropped to $67.73, a 0.5% decline, while COMEX gold prices increased by 1.5% to $5,063.80[6]

Inflation Data - January CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, down from 0.3% in December[1] - Year-on-year CPI stands at 2.4%, lower than the expected 2.5%[1] - Core CPI month-on-month rose by 0.3%, matching the previous month's increase[1] Energy and Food Prices - Energy prices decreased by 1.5% month-on-month, significantly cooling inflation[1] - Gasoline prices fell by 3.2% month-on-month, while fuel oil dropped by 5.7%[1] - Food prices increased by 0.2% month-on-month, down from 0.7% in December[1] Core Inflation Trends - Core CPI year-on-year is at 2.5%, slightly down from 2.6%[1] - Rent prices increased by 0.2% month-on-month, a slowdown from 0.4%[1] - Service prices overall rose by 0.4% month-on-month, up from 0.3%[1] Market Reactions - After the data release, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 3.4 basis points to approximately 3.41%[1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 3.6 basis points to around 4.06%[1] - Market expectations indicate a high probability of two rate cuts starting in June 2026[4]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the industry, suggesting a recommendation for investment based on favorable market conditions and growth potential [4]. Core Insights - GFS reported Q4 2025 revenue of $1.83 billion, meeting the upper guidance limit, with a year-over-year growth of 0% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 8% [1]. - The gross margin for Q4 2025 was 29.0%, in line with previous guidance, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.6 percentage points and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 3.0 percentage points, driven by product mix optimization and improved capacity utilization [1]. - Net profit for Q4 2025 was $310 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 21%, with an EPS of $0.55 [1]. - The average selling price (ASP) was $1,314 per wafer (equivalent to 8 inches), showing a year-over-year decrease of 4% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 5% [1]. - Wafer shipments reached 619,000 units (equivalent to 12 inches), with a year-over-year increase of 4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 3% [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q4 2025 revenue was $1.83 billion, achieving the upper guidance limit, with a gross margin of 29.0% and net profit of $310 million [1][16]. - For the full year 2025, total revenue was $6.791 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 1% [17]. Business Segments - Smart mobile devices generated $657 million in revenue for Q4 2025, a year-over-year decline of 11% and a quarter-over-quarter decline of 13%, accounting for 36% of total revenue [2]. - Automotive electronics revenue was $427 million, showing a year-over-year increase of 3% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 40%, representing 23% of total revenue [2]. - Data center and communication infrastructure revenue grew by 32% year-over-year and 29% quarter-over-quarter, reaching $225 million, accounting for 12% of total revenue [2]. Future Guidance - For Q1 2026, GFS expects revenue of $1.625 billion (±$25 million) and a gross margin of approximately 27% (±1 percentage point) [3]. - The company plans to initiate a $500 million stock repurchase program in Q1 2026 [3]. - The overall pricing environment for 2026 is expected to be better than in 2025, with some industry participants beginning to raise prices [3]. Capacity and Technology Development - GFS is expanding its capacity in Dresden, Germany, with plans to exceed 1 million wafers per year by the end of 2028 [3][22]. - The company is investing $16 billion in expanding its facilities in New York and Vermont to enhance advanced packaging capabilities [3]. - GFS aims to achieve annualized revenue of $1 billion from its silicon photonics business by the end of 2028 [3].