Economic Overview - February economic data shows mixed signals, with retail and housing sales declining, indicating a potential "stagflation" scenario[2] - January non-farm payrolls increased by 143,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.01%[54] - CPI for January recorded a year-on-year increase of 3%, reflecting inflationary pressures despite some economic slowdown[48] Bond Market Insights - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to find a low point around 4%, with the 10Y-2Y yield spread narrowing or even inverting[5] - In February, the yields for 30Y, 20Y, 10Y, and 2Y Treasuries changed by -29.7, -31.7, -33.1, and -28.2 basis points respectively[3] - The total issuance of U.S. Treasuries in February was $2.4 trillion, down from $2.63 trillion in January[19] Market Strategy Recommendations - The report recommends going long on long-duration Treasuries, including TLT, TMF, and 10-year and above Treasury futures[5] - The strategy is based on anticipated "bull flattening" in the bond market due to economic conditions and shadow "QE" from the Treasury[5] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include an unexpected slowdown in the U.S. economy, faster-than-expected rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, and worsening geopolitical conditions[6] - The market is pricing in 2-3 rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, higher than the previous expectation of just one[4]

Group 1: Market Overview - As of October 4, the Hang Seng Index has increased nearly 25% since its rally began on September 24[4] - The market's main trend revolves around cyclical recovery and valuation repair, with defensive dividend sectors underperforming significantly[4] - The overall valuation of the Hong Kong market has returned to above the 5-year average level[5] Group 2: Driving Forces of the Market - The current market is characterized as a "first-stage rocket" driven by policy-induced valuation recovery[9] - The "first-stage rocket" is primarily driven by market expectations rather than substantial economic data improvements[11] - The Hang Seng Index's PE valuation percentile has exceeded 75%, indicating that valuation repair is largely complete[11] Group 3: Future Market Path - The market is currently overheated but has not yet ended; attention should be paid to potential corrections and volatility risks[13] - The second-stage rocket's ability to take over is uncertain and will depend on upcoming economic data[15] - If economic fundamentals do not stabilize, the market may experience further downward pressure, potentially leading to a return of dividend assets as the main focus[16]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the company or sector analyzed [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the valuation levels of the Hong Kong stock market, focusing on key indices such as the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) and the Hang Seng Index (HSI) [3][7]. - It discusses the price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios across various industries, indicating sectors that are undervalued or overvalued based on historical data [17][19]. - The report also examines the premium/discount levels of AH shares, providing insights into market trends and investor sentiment [26]. Summary by Sections Hong Kong Market Important Index Valuation - The Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) is currently at 2551.17 with a TTM PE of 9.10, indicating a historical average PE of 10.95 and a maximum of 17.92 [3][5]. - The HSCI's current value is below the median of 10.20, suggesting potential undervaluation [3]. Industry Valuation Levels - The report identifies industries with low valuation percentiles, including industrials, consumer discretionary, healthcare, and utilities, with some sectors like consumer discretionary and healthcare below the 10th percentile [18]. - Conversely, the materials sector is noted for having a high valuation percentile, exceeding 90%, indicating overvaluation [18]. AH Share Premium/Discount Levels - The report presents the Hang Seng AH Share Premium Index, which reflects the pricing dynamics between Hong Kong and mainland China shares, providing insights into market sentiment and investment opportunities [27].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the companies discussed [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decrease in the number of companies engaging in stock buybacks, with only 16 companies participating this week compared to 26 the previous week. However, the total buyback amount increased to 32.5 billion HKD from 13.7 billion HKD [3]. - The financial sector dominated the buyback activity, primarily driven by substantial repurchases from AIA Group and Hang Seng Bank, indicating a concentrated effort in this industry [7]. - The report notes that stock buybacks often occur during bear markets, suggesting that companies perceive their stock prices to be undervalued, which can stabilize investor confidence and potentially lead to price increases [12]. Summary by Sections Weekly Buyback Statistics - Total buyback activity saw a decline in the number of participating companies, with 16 companies reported this week, down from 26 last week. The total buyback amount rose to 32.5 billion HKD [3]. - AIA Group led the buybacks with 20.0 billion HKD, followed by HSBC Holdings with 10.3 billion HKD, and Hang Seng Bank with 0.9 billion HKD [4][8]. Industry Analysis - The financial sector accounted for the majority of buyback amounts, significantly influenced by AIA Group and Hang Seng Bank's activities. Other sectors showed scattered buyback amounts [7]. - The consumer discretionary sector had the highest number of companies engaging in buybacks, with five companies participating, followed by the industrial sector with four companies, and the financial sector with three [7]. Significance of Buybacks - Stock buybacks are defined as companies repurchasing their own shares from the market, which can be used for cancellation or employee stock incentives. This activity is often seen as a signal that companies believe their stock is undervalued [12]. - Historical data indicates that buyback waves in the Hong Kong market have occurred during bear markets, often followed by subsequent price recoveries [12].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the companies analyzed [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the top net bought and sold companies in the Hong Kong Stock Connect for the week of August 5 to August 11, 2024, indicating significant investment flows [4][6] - The report also presents the industry distribution of net buying and selling, showcasing the sectors attracting the most capital [9] - Active stocks during the week are identified, providing insights into market sentiment and trading activity [11][13][15] Summary by Sections Top Net Bought Companies - The top net bought companies include: - 盈富基金 (Yingfu Fund) with a net buying amount of 6.407 billion - 腾讯控股 (Tencent Holdings) with a net buying amount of 3.583 billion - 恒生中国企业 (Hang Seng China Enterprises) with a net buying amount of 1.645 billion - 南方恒生科技 (Southern Hang Seng Technology) with a net buying amount of 1.633 billion - 小米集团-W (Xiaomi Group-W) with a net buying amount of 1.403 billion [4] Top Net Sold Companies - The top net sold companies include: - 汇丰控股 (HSBC Holdings) with a net selling amount of -1.878 billion - 中国神华 (China Shenhua) with a net selling amount of -0.711 billion - 中国石油股份 (PetroChina) with a net selling amount of -0.554 billion - 美团-W (Meituan-W) with a net selling amount of -0.456 billion - L'OCCITANE with a net selling amount of -0.408 billion [6] Industry Distribution of Net Buying/Selling - The industry distribution shows significant net buying in the financial sector, followed by information technology and consumer discretionary sectors, while energy and telecommunications also see notable activity [9] Active Stocks - The most active stocks during the week include: - 中国海洋石油 (CNOOC) with a total trading volume of 1.410 billion - 腾讯控股 (Tencent Holdings) with a total trading volume of 1.408 billion - 中国移动 (China Mobile) with a total trading volume of 1.348 billion - 中芯国际 (SMIC) with a total trading volume of 0.529 billion - 小米集团-W (Xiaomi Group-W) with a total trading volume of 0.380 billion [11][13][15]

| --- | --- | --- | |-------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 美债策略周报 2024.8.5-2024.8.11 分析师： 中央编号： 联系电话： 邮箱： | 沈凡超 BTT231 852-4623 5564 hector@cnzsqh.hk | 1 美债市场策略周报 - 投资要点 美债市场表现回顾： 7月非制造业PMI回升，初请失业金人数较前值回落，市场"衰退"担忧缓和；不同期限美债收益率回 升，短端上行幅度大于长端，10Y-2Y利差回升2.4个bp至11.3bps，曲线形态较上周更平坦化。 美债市场基本面、货币政策和资金面： 基本面与货币政策：7月非制造业PMI较前值回升2.6个百分点至51.4%，新订单、商业活动、就业分 项均回升，反应出行旺季下，美国私人部门消费仍有韧性；周四公布的初请失业金人数较前值显 ...

1 港股市场策略周报 2024.8.5-2024.8.11 分析师： 沈凡超 中央编号： BTT231 联系电话： 852-4623 5564 邮箱： hector@cnzsqh.hk 港股市场策略周报 - 投资要点 l 港股市场表现回顾： n 本周市场小幅反弹，恒生综指、恒生指数和恒生科技分别录得周涨幅+0.84%/+0.85%/+1.51%。 本周港股市场行业板块互有涨跌，医疗保健和地产建筑业底部反弹，涨幅最大，市场整体呈现"高低 切"的风格。 n 截至本周末，恒生综指的5年PE估值分位点小幅升至12.02%，接近5年均值往下一个标准差的位置， 仍在低估区间。 l 港股市场基本面与资金面： l 基本面：7月出口放缓不及预期，7月物价数据虽略超预期，但仍在低位运行，当下内外需形势不佳。 l 资金面：日本加息叠加美国衰退交易，导致周一全球股市暴跌，风险解除后市场再度趋于常态。 n 港股市场展望： n 基本面来看, 国内经济外需走弱内需不振，下半年可能遇到内外双承压的不利局面，政策面开始聚焦内 需增长。资金面来看，美国经济降温和降息预期逐渐明朗，但后续"衰退交易"的风险仍可能在短期 影响港股市场资金面。 n 配 ...

1 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 中债策略周报 2024.8.5-2024.8.11 分析师： 中央编号： 联系电话： 邮箱： | | 中国债券场策略周报 - 投资要点 l 中国债券市场表现回顾： n 本周债市阶梯式上行，30Y回升4.3bp至2.38%，10Y回升6.1bp至2.19%；短端回升速度更快，1Y 回升6.6个bp至1.45%，期限利差（10Y-1Y）（30Y-1Y）回升，曲线较上周更为陡峭化。 l 中国债券市场基本面、货币政策与资金面： n 基本面和货币政策：7月CPI同比0.5%，较前值改善，但PPI同环比仍处于负区间，说明价格仍有较大 回升空间；出口同比7%低于前值，耐用品出口维持韧性。货币政策方面，本周央行逆回购投放量先降 后升，全周净回笼7597.6亿元；央行2季度货币政策执行报告加大对资管产品久期和净值回撤风险的 关注力度，说明当前央行关注长 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------|---------------|----------|-------------------------|-----------------------|----------------------| | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 行业 | 期间回购金额 ( 万港元 ) | 期间回购数量 ( 万股 ) | 回购数量占总股本比例 | | 1 | 3690.HK | 美团-W | 可选消费 | 267,380.76 | 2355.40 | 0.38% | | 2 | 1299.HK | 友邦保险 | 金融 | 174,331.87 | 3335.78 | 0.30% | | 3 | 0005.HK | 汇丰控股 | 金融 | 65,392.23 | 980.00 | 0.05% | | 4 | 0883.HK | 中国海洋石油 | 能源 | 23,212.66 | 1153.60 | 0.02% | | 5 | 0011.HK | 恒生银行 | 金融 | 10,132.65 ...

港股通前十大活跃个股（2024.7.15-2024.7.21） 港股通与南下资金介绍 8 港股通前十大活跃个股（2024.7.15-2024.7.21） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|---------|-----------------------|-----------------------------|---------------------|-------|---------|-------------------------|-----------------------------|-----------------| | 序号 | 代码 | 沪市港股通 \n证券名称 | 2024/7/19 \n合计买卖额 (亿) | 成交净买入 (亿) | 序号 | \n代码 | 深市港股通 \n 证券名称 | 2024/7/19 \n合计买卖额 (亿) | 成交净买入 (亿) | | 1 | 0883.HK | 中国海洋石油 | 22.57 | -1.18 | 1 | 0883.HK | 中国海 ...