[Table_main] 衍生品市场类模板 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 策_main] 衍生品市场类模板 略 报 告 2025 年 8 月中债市场月度展望及配置策略 ──债券策略月报 市 场 策 报告导读 略 研 究 — 中 债 策 略 月 报 7 月经济数据表现波澜不惊，政策刺激预期主导市场走势，一是雅鲁藏布江水 电站于 19 日官宣开工，项目投资体量达到万亿水平，基建扩张逻辑引领权益、 商品两大市场于 21 日显著上涨；二是"反内卷"行情卷出新高度，各行各业 争相落地相关会议或涨价政策；随着市场风险偏好持续改善，带动上证综指和 深证成指分别录得 3.74%、5.32%的涨幅。债市在"股债跷跷板"、税期前后 资金面超预期收敛等利空因素影响下，表现不佳。展望后续，7 月 PMI 和票据 市场数据显示，需求端仍然偏弱，同时短期政策刺激预期正在回撤；另一方面， 随着商品市场和股市降温，股债跷跷板效应下或对债市形成利多；尽管利率债 收益率难以突破新低，但以 10 年、30 年国债收益率年内低点作为参考，二者 仍存在 10-12bp 的下行空间，叠加久期考量，潜在收益较为可观。 | 分析师： | 曹潮 | | - ...

港股市场回购统计周报 2025.6.9-2025.6.15 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 1 目录 2 l 港股市场回购周统计数据 l 上市公司回购的意义与作用 港股市场回购周统计数据（2025.6.9-2025.6.15） l 周回购数据总汇 l 回购金额前十大公司统计 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 期间回购金额 | 期间回购数量 | 回购数量占 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (万港元) | (万股) | 总股本比例 | | 0700.HK | 腾讯控股 | 250,224.89 | 486.70 | 0.05% | | 1299.HK | 友邦保险 | 73,364.94 | 1,060.00 | 0.10% | | 0005.HK | 汇丰控股 | 48,134.96 | 516.80 | 0.03% | | 2517.HK | 锅圈 | 3,910.15 | 1,268.80 | ...

2025.3.10-2025.3.16 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 1 港股通数据统计周报 目录 2 l 港股通前十大净买入/卖出公司 l 港股通净买入/卖出行业分布 l 港股通前十大活跃个股 l 港股通与南下资金介绍 港股通前十大净买入/卖出公司 3 港股通本周前十大净买入公司（2025.3.10-2025.3.16） | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 行业 | 港股通持股变动数 | 净买入金额（亿元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 9988.HK | 阿里巴巴-W | 可选消费 | 97165958 | 131.95 | | 2 | 2611.HK | 国泰君安 | 金融 | 833729793 | 105.05 | | 3 | 2800.HK | 盈富基金 | | 301820000 | 73.22 | | 4 | 0700.HK | 腾讯控股 | 信息技术 | ...

Key Points - The report indicates that the long-end interest rates in the Chinese bond market continued to rise, with the 10-year government bond increasing by 6 basis points to 1.85% and the 30-year bond rising by 10 basis points to 2.07%. In contrast, the short-end rates stabilized and fell, with the 1-year government bond dropping to 1.56% [3][9][13] - The report highlights that the social financing (社融) increased by 2.2 trillion yuan in February, which is 737.4 billion yuan more than the previous year. The government bonds were a significant support item, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1 trillion yuan [5][30][46] - The report suggests that despite the potential for a looser monetary environment in March and April, the extent of this shift will depend on the central bank's stance. It recommends a defensive strategy and wave trading as the best approach in the current challenging trading environment [5][46] Bond Market Performance Review - The long-end interest rates showed a continued upward trend, while short-end rates stabilized. Specifically, the 10-year and 30-year government bonds saw increases of 6 and 10 basis points, respectively [3][9] - The report notes that the yield curve for government bonds has steepened, with minor adjustments in yields for bonds with maturities of 7 years or less, while longer maturities experienced more significant increases [13][18] Bond Market Issuance Situation - The report details that the total issuance of government bonds this week was 3.378 billion yuan, with a net issuance of 709 million yuan. Additionally, local government bonds issued amounted to 867 million yuan, with a net issuance of 490 million yuan [18][19] - The issuance of policy bank bonds reached 1.33 billion yuan, with a net issuance of 695 million yuan [18] Funding Market Situation - The report indicates that the funding market remained stable despite the central bank's net withdrawal of 3.972 billion yuan. The R001 rate fluctuated between 1.77% and 1.81%, with a weekly average slightly rising to 1.79% [21][23] - The report also mentions that the weighted issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit was 2.05%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week [24] Macroeconomic Environment Tracking - The report emphasizes that the economic recovery remains fragile, with weak credit demand and delayed debt funding indicating that further fiscal policy support may be necessary [5][46] - It also notes that the M1 growth rate fell to 0.1%, primarily due to a decline in the growth rate of household demand deposits, suggesting a shift in asset allocation preferences among residents [41][46]

Key Points Summary Group 1: Market Performance Review - The bond market experienced a significant rise in yields across all maturities, with the 10-year and 30-year government bonds increasing by 6 basis points to 1.79% and 1.98% respectively, while the 1-year government bond remained stable at 1.59% [3][10][13]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals and Monetary Policy - In January-February, exports grew by 2.3% year-on-year, a notable decline from the previous reading of 10.7%, primarily due to "export rush" overstretching demand and high base effects [6][36]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell sharply by over 1 percentage point to -0.7% in February, influenced by the Spring Festival timing, with the adjusted CPI reflecting weak domestic demand at 0.1% [6][46]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a net withdrawal of 881.3 billion yuan this week, with reverse repos totaling 777.9 billion yuan and maturing repos at 1.6592 trillion yuan [44]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to face challenges due to the current economic conditions, with a defensive strategy and tactical trading being recommended as optimal approaches [6][46]. - Two main strategies are suggested: first, focusing on certificates of deposit and short-term bonds as a potential allocation window due to easing liquidity; second, implementing a quick in-and-out strategy for long-term bonds within the identified ranges of 1.7%-1.75% for 10-year bonds and 1.9%-2% for 30-year bonds [6][46]. Group 4: Issuance and Funding Market - The total issuance of local government bonds this week was 217.5 billion yuan, with a net issuance of 208 billion yuan, including 37.6 billion yuan of new general bonds and 13 billion yuan of new special bonds [18]. - The issuance of government bonds reached 398.2 billion yuan, with a net issuance of 358.2 billion yuan [18]. Group 5: Funding Market Conditions - The funding market showed signs of marginal recovery, although prices remained high, with the weighted average rate for R001 fluctuating between 1.74% and 1.81%, down 21 basis points week-on-week [23][25]. - The average daily transaction volume in the interbank pledged repo market increased to 5.72 trillion yuan, recovering to the average level seen in January 2025 [25].

[Table_main] 衍生品市场类模板 报告日期：2025 年 3 月 策_main] 衍生品市场类模板 略 报 告 2025 年 3 月美债市场月度展望及配置策略 ──债券策略月报 市 场 策 报告导读 略 研 究 — 美 债 策 略 月 报 2 月经济数据依然多空交织，美债市场在月内冲高回落，累计波动幅度达到 37.4 个 bps。2 月下旬的海湖庄园协议新闻引发市场关注，协议中的关税、多 边货币协议及制造业回流或将成为未来 4 年特朗普政策的主要目标；尽管从长 期视角看，这一目标有望缓和美国当前贸易/财政赤字严重失衡的问题，但关 税短期内对经济和通胀的冲击，将不可避免的导致美国经济短期内进入"类滞 胀"状态；与此同时，财政部在债务上限争端仍存背景下，难以在未来 1-2 个 季度增加长久期美债的发行规模，这会迫使本森特延续此前耶伦超量发行短债 的融资策略（即影子"QE"）。我们预计在经济"类滞胀"和财政部影子"QE" 两因素共振下，Q1-Q2 期间美债市场有望迎来一波牛平行情；对应的 10 年期 美债低点在 4%左右，10Y-2Y 美债利差则逐渐收敛甚至倒挂。落实到具体策略 层面，我们推荐做多长久期美 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - As of October 4, the Hang Seng Index has increased nearly 25% since its rally began on September 24[4] - The market's main trend revolves around cyclical recovery and valuation repair, with defensive dividend sectors underperforming significantly[4] - The overall valuation of the Hong Kong market has returned to above the 5-year average level[5] Group 2: Driving Forces of the Market - The current market is characterized as a "first-stage rocket" driven by policy-induced valuation recovery[9] - The "first-stage rocket" is primarily driven by market expectations rather than substantial economic data improvements[11] - The Hang Seng Index's PE valuation percentile has exceeded 75%, indicating that valuation repair is largely complete[11] Group 3: Future Market Path - The market is currently overheated but has not yet ended; attention should be paid to potential corrections and volatility risks[13] - The second-stage rocket's ability to take over is uncertain and will depend on upcoming economic data[15] - If economic fundamentals do not stabilize, the market may experience further downward pressure, potentially leading to a return of dividend assets as the main focus[16]

1 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------------------------|-------|---------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 港股市场估值周报 2024.8.5-2024.8.11 | | 分析师： 中央编号： 联系电话： 邮箱： | 沈凡超 BTT231 852-4623 5564 hector@cnzsqh.hk | | 目录 l 港股市场重要指数估值 l 港股市场各行业估值水平 l AH股溢价/折价水平 2 港股市场 重要指数估值 3 港股市场重要指数估值-恒生综合指数 (HSCI) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------- ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the companies discussed [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decrease in the number of companies engaging in stock buybacks, with only 16 companies participating this week compared to 26 the previous week. However, the total buyback amount increased to 32.5 billion HKD from 13.7 billion HKD [3]. - The financial sector dominated the buyback activity, primarily driven by substantial repurchases from AIA Group and Hang Seng Bank, indicating a concentrated effort in this industry [7]. - The report notes that stock buybacks often occur during bear markets, suggesting that companies perceive their stock prices to be undervalued, which can stabilize investor confidence and potentially lead to price increases [12]. Summary by Sections Weekly Buyback Statistics - Total buyback activity saw a decline in the number of participating companies, with 16 companies reported this week, down from 26 last week. The total buyback amount rose to 32.5 billion HKD [3]. - AIA Group led the buybacks with 20.0 billion HKD, followed by HSBC Holdings with 10.3 billion HKD, and Hang Seng Bank with 0.9 billion HKD [4][8]. Industry Analysis - The financial sector accounted for the majority of buyback amounts, significantly influenced by AIA Group and Hang Seng Bank's activities. Other sectors showed scattered buyback amounts [7]. - The consumer discretionary sector had the highest number of companies engaging in buybacks, with five companies participating, followed by the industrial sector with four companies, and the financial sector with three [7]. Significance of Buybacks - Stock buybacks are defined as companies repurchasing their own shares from the market, which can be used for cancellation or employee stock incentives. This activity is often seen as a signal that companies believe their stock is undervalued [12]. - Historical data indicates that buyback waves in the Hong Kong market have occurred during bear markets, often followed by subsequent price recoveries [12].

1 港股通数据统计周报 2024.8.5-2024.8.11 分析师： 沈凡超 中央编号： BTT231 联系电话： 852-4623 5564 邮箱： hector@cnzsqh.hk 目录 | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------------------| | | | | | l 港股通前十大净买入/卖出公司 | | | l 港股通净买入/卖出行业分布 | | | l 港股通前十大活跃个股 | | | l 港股通与南下资金介绍 | 2 港股通前十大净买入/卖出公司 3 港股通本周前十大净买入公司（2024.8.5-2024.8.11） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------|--------------|----------|------------------|--------------------| | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 行业 | 港股通持股变动数 | 净买入金额（亿元） | | 1 | 2800.HK | 盈富基金 | | 362807107 | 64.07 ...