港股市场策略周报 2025.11.17-2025.11.23 | 分析师： | 蒋开来 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BWL381 | | 联系电话： | 852-6430 1060 | | 邮箱： | jiangkl@cnzsqh.hk | 1 港股市场策略周报 - 投资要点 港股市场表现回顾： 本周港股进入情绪主导的"Beta 式"普跌，各主要宽基与风格指数齐跌，市场风险偏好显著收缩。科技与成长板块领 跌，防御端亦未形成对冲，资金观望情绪上升，短期仍处弱势整理区间。本周恒生综指/恒生指数/恒生科技分别 -5.37%/ -5.09%/-7.18%。 截至本周末，恒生综指的5年PE（TTM）估值分位点为80.62%，估值水平接近5年均值向上一个标准差。 港股市场宏观环境： 目录 基本面：10月财政收入较为亮眼，财政支出略显疲态，反映年底财政后劲略显不足，预算内资金支出节奏略慢。 资金面：美国降息预期升温，12月降息25bp概率接近七成；本周南向资金继续保持净流入，环比上周大幅增长55.8%。 港股市场展望： 2 基本面：国内经济仍处于筑底期，经济数据表现仍较弱；政策面：科技创新和扩大内需 ...

Group 1 - The overall outlook for the Hong Kong stock market remains cautious but optimistic, with a focus on sectors benefiting from policy support such as new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and AI technology [3][6] - The market experienced significant fluctuations in October, with the Hang Seng Index reaching a peak on October 2 before declining due to heightened concerns over US-China trade tensions [4][13] - The Hang Seng Index's price-to-earnings ratio (PE) decreased from 13.18 to 12.76 by the end of October, indicating a drop in market valuation [20][21] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment shows a weakening fundamental backdrop, with domestic economic data indicating a continued bottoming phase [5][32] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technological innovation and expanding domestic demand, aiming to enhance the internal economic cycle [65] - The Hong Kong market is heavily influenced by external factors, particularly US economic data and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, which are critical for market sentiment [66][68] Group 3 - In October, southbound capital inflows into the Hong Kong market totaled HKD 92.5 billion, reflecting a strong liquidity support despite a decrease from previous months [25][30] - The financial sector saw significant net inflows, indicating a shift towards defensive investment strategies amid market volatility [25][30] - Key stocks benefiting from this trend included China National Offshore Oil Corporation and China Mobile, which ranked among the top net inflows for the month [30][31]

Group 1 - The overall outlook for the Hong Kong stock market remains cautious but optimistic, with a focus on sectors benefiting from policy support such as automotive, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and technology [3][6] - The Hong Kong stock market showed resilience in September, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 8.11%, the Hang Seng Index by 7.09%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 13.95%, despite ongoing economic pressures [4][13] - The market's valuation levels have increased, with the Hang Seng Index's PE ratio rising to 13.18, indicating a shift above the five-year average [21][24] Group 2 - The inflow of southbound funds into the Hong Kong market reached a record high in September, with net purchases amounting to HKD 188.5 billion, indicating strong interest from mainland investors [27][30] - The consumer discretionary sector saw significant net inflows, particularly driven by investments in Alibaba, which experienced a monthly price increase of over 50% [34][36] - The repurchase activity in the Hong Kong market increased significantly, with total repurchase amounts rising from HKD 11.2 billion to HKD 20.5 billion, highlighting a growing confidence among companies [36][37] Group 3 - The macroeconomic environment remains challenging, with domestic economic indicators showing signs of weakness, particularly in consumption and investment [39][44] - The policy environment is characterized by a more proactive fiscal policy aimed at stabilizing economic growth, with measures to boost consumption and support emerging industries [74][75] - The overseas economic landscape, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy, is crucial for the Hong Kong market, with expectations of further interest rate cuts influencing market sentiment [75][78]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, before the central bank's policy direction becomes clearer, the bond market is unlikely to see significant movements. However, with the injection of incremental funds from insurance, wealth management, and banks, interest rates may gradually approach previous lows, accompanied by some structural market trends. Therefore, pre - arranging for the to - be - allocated varieties of incremental funds is a dominant strategy. Good choices include ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds favored by the "cost - reduction" of insurance in July and sinking credit varieties with a maturity yield in the 2.0% - 2.2% range for betting on the growth of wealth management scale [5]. - In June and the second half of the year, aside from the uncertainty of tariffs, there are few foreseeable negative factors in June. The fundamental data is still mixed, and its indication of the interest rate direction is not strong. Even if long - term interest rates retreat, the amplitude may be relatively controllable. The smooth downward trend of long - term interest rates may occur after the cross - quarter period. High - cost - performance varieties such as ultra - long local bonds, long - term agricultural development bonds, and export - import bank bonds can be preferentially selected [41]. Summary by Directory Bond Market Performance Review - The change in the central bank's statement on reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the monetary policy draft this week dampened market expectations of easing. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year active Treasury bonds increased by 0.5 and 2.3 bps respectively, while the yield of 1 - year Treasury bonds decreased by 1.5 bps [2][11]. - In the interest - rate bond market, yields of bonds with a maturity of 5 years and below generally decreased by 3 - 4 bps, with the 1 - year Treasury bond yield breaking through the 1.40% resistance line to 1.36%. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds remained stable at 1.65% and 1.85% respectively. In the credit - bond market, the market continued the idea of spread mining, and long - term varieties became the focus. Yields of some credit - bond varieties decreased to different extents [14]. Bond Market Primary Issuance Situation - This week, 4223 billion yuan of local bonds were issued, and 508 billion yuan are scheduled to be issued from June 30 to July 4. As of June 27, 21635 billion yuan of new special bonds have been issued, an increase of 6542 billion yuan year - on - year, accounting for 49% of the 4.4 - trillion - yuan quota. 1110 billion yuan of Treasury bonds were issued this week, with a net issuance of 1110 billion yuan, including 710 billion yuan of special Treasury bonds. 1150 billion yuan of policy - financial bonds were issued this week, with a net issuance of 109 billion yuan [19]. Funds Market Situation - During the cross - quarter period, the upward pressure on funds was relatively controllable. Despite tax - period disturbances, the overnight funds remained stable, while the 7 - day interest rates rose significantly. The R007 and DR007 increased by 24 bp and 13 bp respectively compared with the previous week. The overnight and 1 - week Shibor rates closed at 1.37% and 1.67% respectively, with changes of +0.3 and +13.9 bps compared with last week. The overnight and 1 - week CNH Hibor rates closed at 2.02% and 2.06% respectively, with changes of +37.7 and +19.8 bps compared with last week [23][25]. - In the context of the tightening of the end - of - quarter funds, the overall trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, and the weighted issuance period of inter - bank certificates of deposit was compressed [28]. China's Bond Market Macro - environment Tracking and Outlook - In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May. The performance of major industries remained strong, with improvements in both supply and demand. The production index rose 0.3 percentage points to 51%, and the new order index was 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [31]. - From January to May, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 27204.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%, and the profit growth rate slowed down compared with January - April. Although new - energy industries contributed significantly to profit growth, industrial product prices remained low, and there was still a large space for increasing effective demand [33]. - The US dollar index has been below 100 in the past week, and the offshore RMB has continued to appreciate. The central bank may maintain a loose tone in the second half of the year. This week, the central bank's net open - market injection was 12672 billion yuan, the second - highest single - week net injection this year [38]. China's Bond Market Weekly Summary and Outlook - The economic data in May was mixed. The GDP under the production method remained high, while the terminal demand under the expenditure method was differentiated. The annual 5% real growth target is likely to be achieved. In the future, policies may focus on structural short - board compensation and improving nominal growth [42]. - Monetary policy will continue to be loose to cooperate with fiscal bond issuance, and the liquidity is likely to remain loose. In June and the second half of the year, high - cost - performance bond varieties can be preferentially selected [40][41].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the bond market, despite the high probability of continued weakening of economic data, there is still significant adjustment pressure. If the 10Y Treasury bond rate further breaks through to 1.8%, the allocation portfolio gradually becomes cost - effective. If the central bank does not introduce incremental tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts or restart bond purchases in September, the pressure on the capital side may continue to affect market sentiment. Currently, the dumbbell strategy to maintain portfolio liquidity and returns may be the best strategy [5]. - Looking at the second half of the year, since the third quarter may be the starting point of a "bond bull market", it is advisable to appropriately relax the restrictions on portfolio duration. Among the varieties, the 30 - year bond, which has shown weak performance recently, may have high cost - effectiveness [46]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Bond Market Performance Review - In the interest - rate bond market, due to the convergence of capital and the "stock - bond seesaw" effect, the yields of government bonds with different maturities continued to rise this week. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year government bonds rose by 2.2 and 5.2 bps to 1.79% and 2.09% respectively, and the yield of 1 - year government bonds rose by 1 bp to 1.4% [2][11]. - In the interest/credit market, for interest - rate bonds, the adjustment range of yields within 7 years was generally small, while the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year government bonds rose significantly by 4 bp and 7 bp to 1.87% and 2.18% respectively due to fund selling. For credit bonds, the short - end performed better than the long - end, and general credit bonds performed better than secondary perpetual bonds. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year bonds on the AA+ implicit urban investment bond curve rose by 2 bp, 7 bp, and 6 bp respectively; the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year bonds on the AAA - secondary capital bond curve rose by 6 bp, 10 bp, and 10 bp respectively. Currently, the yields of 5 - year credit bonds have generally returned to around 2.15% or higher [14]. Bond Market Primary Issuance Situation - Local government bonds: This week, 93.4 billion yuan was issued, with a net issuance of - 3 billion yuan, including 0 billion yuan of new general bonds, 17.8 billion yuan of new special bonds (including 16.2 billion yuan of special special bonds), 75.6 billion yuan of ordinary refinancing bonds, and 0 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds [19]. - Government bonds: This week, 349.1 billion yuan was issued, with a net issuance of 289 billion yuan, including 82 billion yuan of special government bonds [19]. - Policy - financial bonds: This week, 120.5 billion yuan was issued, with a net issuance of 80.5 billion yuan [19]. Funding Market Conditions - Overnight and 7 - day funding rates continued to rise at the beginning of the week. Due to the continuous absence of incremental funds, the funding cost rose continuously, and the overnight rate rose above the OMO. R001 rose 9 bp to 1.46% compared with the previous Friday, and R007 rose 3 bp to 1.49%. Until Wednesday, the central bank started incremental investment, and the rise of funding rates gradually stopped. R001 and R007 reached weekly highs of 1.46% and 1.50% respectively. In the following two days, the central bank maintained excess investment, and the funding rates began to decline gradually. R001 closed at 1.40%, and R007 also declined to 1.47% [25]. - This week, the overnight and 1 - week Shibor rates closed at 1.32% and 1.45%, changing by - 5 and + 3.8 bps respectively compared with last week; the overnight and 1 - week CNH Hibor rates closed at 1.1% and 1.28%, changing by - 43.1 and - 36.2 bps respectively compared with last week [25]. - The yields of most inter - bank certificates of deposit rose. Although the maturity pressure of certificates of deposit increased this week, banks did not significantly increase the issuance price, and the secondary yields were in a sideways state. The changes in the issuance rates of 3 - month, 6 - month, and 1 - year certificates of deposit were within 1 bp. In terms of issuance maturity, the weighted issuance maturity extended to 6.1 months, compared with 6.0 months in the previous week. Despite the convergence of the capital side, the trading volume of inter - bank pledged repos still rebounded, with the average trading volume rising from 7.31 trillion yuan in the previous week to 7.49 trillion yuan [28]. China's Bond Market Macroeconomic Environment Tracking and Outlook Fundamental Outlook - In August, the year - on - year CPI was - 0.4%, and the month - on - month was 0%. The core CPI year - on - year was 0.9%, and the month - on - month was 0%. Most sub - items improved. The non - food part of CPI was weaker than that in July; the food CPI month - on - month was 0.5% (previous value - 0.2%), and the non - food month - on - month was - 0.1% (previous value 0.5%) [37]. - In August, the year - on - year PPI was - 3.6% (previous value - 2.9%), and the month - on - month was 0%. However, with policy support, the subsequent decline may narrow. From the perspective of sub - items, the prices of production materials continued to decline, and the decline in emerging industries narrowed. The upstream prices stabilized significantly, with the mining and raw materials sectors turning positive month - on - month, and the processing industry returning to zero growth month - on - month. In key industries, the month - on - month of coal mining, coal processing, ferrous metal smelting, and electric power and heat all turned from negative to positive. The month - on - month of downstream automobile manufacturing was still - 0.3%, but the drag may mainly come from fuel - powered vehicles [40]. - In August, exports denominated in US dollars decreased year - on - year to 4.4%, mainly dragged down by the decline in exports to the United States. The trade surplus remained at a high level. From the perspective of export countries, in August, exports to the United States decreased year - on - year by - 33.1% (previous value - 21.7%); exports to the EU increased year - on - year by 10.4% (previous value 9.2%); exports to Japan increased year - on - year by 6.7% (previous value 2.5%); exports to ASEAN increased year - on - year by 22.5% (previous value 16.6%); exports to Latin America decreased year - on - year by - 2.3% (previous value 7.7%). From the perspective of major products, there was an obvious differentiation between high - end and low - end products. In August, the combined year - on - year of the four labor - intensive products was - 7.7%; the combined year - on - year of electronic products (mobile phones, automatic data processing equipment) was - 8.1%; the year - on - year of household appliance exports was - 6.6%, all with relatively low growth rates. The growth rate of general machinery and equipment was moderately 4.3%. The high - growth sectors were mainly in the high - end equipment field, including integrated circuits (year - on - year 32.8%), automobiles (year - on - year 17.3%), and ships (year - on - year 35%) [5][36]. - In July, the year - on - year CPI was 0, higher than the expected - 0.1%. The sub - items of commodity retail all improved to varying degrees; the year - on - year PPI was - 3.6%, remaining in a slump, indicating that there was still significant pressure for price recovery. At the same time, the credit data was to be released in the next week. Considering the decline in the cumulative transfer discount scale of large - scale banks in July and the return of the bill rate to zero at the end of the month, the social financing data in July might not be optimistic [46]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The US dollar index has been below 100 for the past week. Under the continuous global trend of "de - dollarization", the offshore RMB has continued to appreciate, closing below 7.18 on Friday. Looking forward to the second half of the year, under the tone of a "moderately loose" monetary policy, the central bank may maintain a loose tone. This week, the central bank had a net investment of 196.1 billion yuan, including 1264.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase investment and 1068.4 billion yuan of maturities [45]. - Due to insufficient effective economic demand, the loose monetary policy will continue. In terms of exchange rates, as the Japanese yen and the euro strengthen, the US dollar index has fallen below 100, and the pressure on RMB depreciation is still relatively controllable in the short term. Therefore, external shocks will not restrict the intensity of monetary easing in the short term. For the second half of the year, the monetary policy still needs to cooperate with fiscal bond issuance, and liquidity is likely to be loose rather than tight. Currently, the periodic tightness of liquidity may be mainly caused by institutional expectations. Whether dealing with external shocks or stabilizing the domestic situation, a loose tone is still an important foundation [46]. Bond Market Outlook - Looking forward to the second half of the year, since the third quarter may be the starting point of a "bond bull market", it is advisable to appropriately relax the restrictions on portfolio duration. Among the varieties, the 30 - year bond, which has shown weak performance recently, may have high cost - effectiveness [46].

Group 1 - The overall outlook for the Hong Kong stock market remains cautious but optimistic, with a focus on sectors benefiting from policy support such as automotive, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and technology [3][6] - The Hong Kong stock market showed resilience in August, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, and Hang Seng Composite Index recording monthly gains of 2.64%, 1.23%, and 4.06% respectively, marking the fourth consecutive month of increases [4][13] - The macroeconomic environment indicates a weak fundamental backdrop, with internal southbound capital inflows remaining strong and external funding conditions improving [5][6] Group 2 - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from policy support aimed at stabilizing supply chains and improving profit margins, with industry profit rates projected to recover from 4.4% in 2024 to 4.8% in the first half of 2025 [77] - The technology sector, particularly information technology, saw significant net inflows from southbound capital, with major companies like Alibaba and Tencent receiving over HKD 100 billion in net inflows [26][33] - The materials sector experienced a substantial monthly gain of 24% in August, driven by favorable market conditions and strong performance in related companies [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August 2025, most economic data showed a slowdown. Against the backdrop of credit - easing policies, the market risk appetite continued to improve, driving the Shanghai Composite Index to break through the high of the past 10 years. The "stock - bond seesaw" affected the bond market, with different - term bond yields generally rising. Looking forward to September, the bond market faces greater adjustment pressure, but if the 10Y Treasury bond rate breaks through 1.8%, the allocation portfolio may gradually enter the market [2][3][5]. - The economic fundamentals in July showed a slowdown trend, with only exports accelerating among the six major indicators. The divergence between domestic and foreign demand became more obvious, and the GDP reading weakened significantly compared with the second quarter. The Fed is likely to start cutting interest rates in September, and the RMB may appreciate in the second half of the year [4][28][72]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 August China Capital Market Review 3.1.1 China Capital Market Trend Review - In August, most economic data weakened. Under the influence of credit - easing policies, the market risk appetite improved, and the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the high of the past 10 years. The bond market was affected by factors such as the "stock - bond seesaw" and the unexpected convergence of the capital market around the tax period, with the yields of different - term bonds rising. The yield of the 1 - year Treasury bond active bond decreased by 1.75BP to 1.35%, the 10 - year increased by 7.45BP to 1.78%, and the 30 - year increased by 10.4BP to 2.0180% [2][3][10]. 3.1.2 Bond Market Primary Issuance Situation - In August, the pressure of government bonds increased significantly. The net issuance of local bonds was 977.6 billion yuan, less than the planned amount by 183.2 billion yuan, mainly due to the shortfall in new special bonds. The net issuance of national bonds was 593.3 billion yuan, and that of policy - financial bonds was 771 billion yuan. The supply pressure of government bonds in September may decline month - on - month, and the pressure on the capital market may ease [18]. 3.1.3 Capital Market Tracking - In August, the central bank continued to make large - scale capital injections. The monthly central values of DR001 and R001 decreased. Looking forward to September, the pressure on the capital market may increase, and attention should be paid to the central bank's incremental monetary policies [23]. 3.2 China Bond Market Macroeconomic Environment Interpretation 3.2.1 Economic Fundamentals and Monetary Policy - In July, most economic data showed a slowdown. Industrial, service, consumption, investment, and real - estate sales growth rates were lower than the previous values, and the GDP reading weakened. The central bank continued to inject funds in August, and the Politburo meeting had a more positive attitude towards loose monetary policies [28][66]. 3.2.2 Overseas Economy - In July, the global de - dollarization process slowed down, but the downward pressure on the US economy began to emerge. The Fed is likely to start cutting interest rates in September. The US economic downward pressure is greater than the inflation upward momentum, and the RMB may appreciate in the second half of the year [68][72][79]. 3.3 2025 September China Bond Market Outlook and Allocation Strategy - In September, although it is very likely that economic data will continue to weaken, the bond market still faces great adjustment pressure. If the 10Y Treasury bond rate breaks through 1.8%, the allocation portfolio can gradually enter the market. Some local bonds with a spread of 30bp higher than national bonds have allocation value [80][81].

Group 1: Market Overview - The economic data for July showed a stable performance, with policy stimulus expectations driving market trends, particularly following the announcement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower station project, which has an investment scale of over 1 trillion yuan, leading to significant increases in equity and commodity markets [3][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index recorded increases of 3.74% and 5.32% respectively, reflecting improved market risk appetite [3][4] - The bond market underperformed due to negative factors such as the "stock-bond seesaw" effect and unexpected tightening of liquidity around tax periods, resulting in rising yields across different maturities [4][11] Group 2: Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment remains mixed, with GDP growth around 5.35% year-on-year, but nominal growth lagging at 3.9%, indicating a strong aggregate but weak microeconomic structure [5][34] - Manufacturing PMI for June was recorded at 49.7%, showing a slight recovery but still indicating contraction, while consumer demand showed signs of divergence with retail sales exceeding expectations [5][34] - The monetary policy stance has shifted towards a more hawkish tone, reducing expectations for further rate cuts in the near term [5][34] Group 3: Bond Market Outlook - Looking ahead to Q3, demand remains weak, and short-term policy stimulus expectations are retracting; however, the cooling of commodity and stock markets may provide support for the bond market [6][34] - There is potential for a 10-12 basis point downward adjustment in the yields of 10-year and 30-year government bonds, indicating attractive potential returns [3][6] - The bond issuance pressure is expected to increase in August, with net issuance projected to rise to 1.47 trillion yuan, although it may ease in September [21][34]

Group 1: Market Overview - The total repurchase amount for the week was HKD 3.96 billion, a decrease from HKD 5.23 billion the previous week[13] - The number of companies repurchasing shares decreased to 53 from 58 in the previous week[13] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) led the repurchase with an amount of HKD 2.50 billion[13] Group 2: Top Repurchasing Companies - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) repurchased shares worth HKD 250,224.89 thousand, accounting for 0.05% of its total share capital[12] - AIA Group (1299.HK) repurchased HKD 73,364.94 thousand, representing 0.10% of its total share capital[12] - HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) repurchased HKD 48,134.96 thousand, which is 0.03% of its total share capital[12] Group 3: Industry Analysis - The majority of repurchase amounts were concentrated in the financial and information technology sectors, driven by significant repurchases from Tencent, AIA, and HSBC[16] - The information technology sector had the highest number of repurchasing companies, with 13 firms participating[16] - The healthcare sector ranked second with 12 companies engaging in repurchases[16]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or companies involved [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant net inflows and outflows in the Hong Kong Stock Connect for the week of March 10 to March 16, 2025, indicating active trading and investor interest in specific sectors [1][3]. Summary by Sections Top Net Buy/Sell Companies - The top net bought company was Alibaba Group (9988.HK) in the consumer discretionary sector, with a net buy amount of 13.195 billion [6]. - The top net sold company was Geely Automobile (0175.HK) in the consumer discretionary sector, with a net sell amount of -1.11 billion [7]. Industry Distribution of Net Buy/Sell - The report provides insights into the distribution of net buying and selling across various industries, although specific data is not detailed in the provided text [8][10]. Top Active Stocks - The report lists the top active stocks, with Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) and Alibaba Group (9988.HK) being among the most traded, indicating high investor engagement [14][15]. - For the week, Xiaomi had a total trading volume of 51.84 billion in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, with a net sell of -6.85 billion [14]. Hong Kong Stock Connect Overview - The report explains the mechanism of the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which allows mainland investors to trade Hong Kong-listed stocks through local brokers, enhancing cross-border investment opportunities [19][23]. - It also discusses the significance of southbound funds, which refer to mainland Chinese capital entering the Hong Kong market, highlighting their role in influencing market dynamics [24][26].