研究所 供应依然偏多 关注季节消费表现 ——国信期货生猪周报 2025年11月28日 研究所 1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 关键数据与图表 CONTENTS 过去一周生猪现货震荡偏弱，因供应依然偏大，且消费短期表现平淡。期货震荡偏弱，主力LH2601一度反弹，主要是空头在 监近限仓时点兑现获利。基本面来看，根据仔猪及饲料产销数据推算，一直到明年二季度初生猪供应都是处于增加的格局中， 这会继续制约盘面上方的想象空间。阶段性来看，时间即将转入12月，从需求来说，12月日均屠宰需求会有约15%的环比增量 ；但集团场12月出栏计划预计保持稳定增长，中小散养殖户目前均重及栏舍利用率偏高，后期出栏压力也较大。更长期来看 ，10月能繁母猪存栏下降有所提速，对远端合约仍将形成底部支撑。操作上，近端震荡承压。远端合约宽幅震荡思路下，把 握逢低波段做多机会。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 3 1.生猪期货行情 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 数据来源:WIND, 国信期货 4 周度分析与展望 研究所 2.生猪期货合约月差 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构 ...

研究所 下游补库支撑 玉米偏强震荡 ——国信期货玉米周报 2025年11月28日 研究所 1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 国际玉米市场动态 CONTENTS 3 国内玉米市场动态 4 玉米淀粉市场动态 周度观点 研究所 过去一周玉米期货大幅上涨，主力C2601一度上探至2257元/吨，随后转为高位震荡，周涨幅超2%。C1-C5价差先是大幅走强至 -11，随后回落至-30附近。现货总体表现震荡偏强，周初北方港口及南方销区上涨明显，周后期东北产区出现表现强于其他 地区；从贸易流来看，由于南方及北港的走强，东北产区经过港口发运南方的价差转为顺挂。基本面来看，本周产区销售进度 继续推进，东北产区售粮进度有所提速；考虑本季增产，产区余粮仍然充足。需求端来看，国内养殖利润亏损，饲料未来需求 预期不乐观，但在畜禽高存栏加持下，短期刚需仍然强劲；深加工端利润偏低，开机率受到抑制，但近期淀粉去库有所加快， 后期或对深加工需求产生一定积极性影响。库存角度来看，本周饲料企业库存有所提升，但西南地区饲料企业库存仍处于偏低 水平，深加工企业库存消费比也偏低，后期下游用粮企业库存仍有一定提升空间；中间环节来看，南方谷物库存去化加快，北 ...

研究所 延续下跌，进口成本端仍有支撑 ——国信期货纸浆周报 2025年11月28日 3 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 研究所 第 P 一 a 部 r 分 t1 行情回顾 一、本周行情回顾 研究所 纸浆期货主力合约SP2601延续下跌，跌势略有放缓。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 4 1 本周行情回顾 2 基本面分析 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 基本面分析 二、基本面分析：纸浆市场价格 研究所 卓创资讯监测数据显示，截至11月27日，进口针叶浆周均价5464元/吨，周度环比下跌1.85%，由涨转跌；进口阔叶浆周均价4390元/吨，周度环比下跌 0.05%，由涨转跌。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：Choice 卓创资讯 国信期货 6 二、基本面分析：1-10月纸浆累计进口量增加 研究所 据中华人民共和国海关总署数据显示，2025年10月，我国进口纸浆261.8万吨，进口金额为1531.7百万美元，平均单价为585.06美元/吨。1月至10月 累计进口量及金额较去年同期分别增加4.8%、-2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The current apple futures main contract AP2601 is in a high - level oscillation. The inventory is lower than the same period last year, the cold - storage shipment volume is gradually increasing, and the export volume in October increased month - on - month. With the approaching of Christmas and New Year's Day, the festival boost effect is obvious. The substitution effect of seasonal fruits is greatly weakened, which is beneficial for the recovery of apple demand. The decline in production and quality strongly supports the price. The cost of storage may increase, and the prices of different - quality apple sources will be significantly differentiated in the later stage. The futures contract may show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [7][11][15][19][37] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The apple futures main contract AP2601 is in high - level oscillation [7] 3.2 Supply - side Situation - As of November 27, 2025, the national cold - storage apple inventory is 7.2935 billion tons, and the cold - storage inventory ratio is about 55.38%, 7.84 percentage points lower than the same period last year, with a year - on - year decrease of 12.40%. The cold - storage inventory in Shandong production area is basically completed, with only a very small increase in individual cold - storages, mainly other varieties such as Cream Fuji and Venus [11][37] 3.3 Demand - side Situation - **Cold - storage Shipment Volume**: As of November 27, 2025, the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.31 percentage points, and the de - inventory rate is 0.87%. The cold - storage capacity ratio in Shandong production area is 55.61%, with a weekly decrease of 0.13 percentage points, and that in Shaanxi is 53.89%, with a weekly decrease of 0.67 percentage points [16][37] - **Export Volume**: In October 2025, the export volume of fresh apples is about 80,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.51% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.04%. The listing time of new - season apples is postponed, resulting in a significant year - on - year decrease in the export volume of new - season apples in October [19] - **Substitute Fruit Prices**: Not elaborated in detail in the content - **Origin Spot Price**: As of November 28, the apple price in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong is stable. The off - cold - storage transactions are basically completed. The remaining acquisition market is for a very small amount of tail - end products, mainly for market distribution after the transaction. The cold - storage transactions are for some medium - and small - sized fruits. The price of 65 - 70 fruits of cold - storage farmers is 2.0 - 2.2 yuan per catty, and that of 75 fruits of merchants is about 3.0 yuan per catty. The transactions of first - and second - grade goods above 80 have not started yet. The intended transaction price of first - and second - grade farmer's slice - red apples above 80 is 3.7 - 4.0 yuan per catty, and the price range of striped apples is 4.0 - 4.7 yuan per catty; the asking price of merchants' goods is relatively high, with the intended price of first - and second - grade goods above 80 being 4.2 - 5.2 yuan per catty (not yet traded, and the cold - storage quotation is calculated by adding 0.2 - 0.4 yuan per catty of profit to the inventory cost) [33] 3.4 Market Outlook - The festival boost effect of Christmas and New Year's Day is obvious, and the substitution effect of seasonal fruits is greatly weakened, which is beneficial for the recovery of apple demand. The decline in production and quality strongly supports the price. The cost of storage may increase due to quality problems. The new - season apple production reduction pattern is set, which provides strong support for the cost side. The prices of different - quality apple sources will be significantly differentiated in the later stage, and the futures contract may show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [37]

研究所 美豆区间震荡 马棕油止跌反弹 ----国信期货油脂油料周报 2025年11月28日 研究所 目录 CONTENTS 1 蛋白粕市场分析 2 油脂市场分析 3 后市展望 研究所 Part1 第一部分 蛋白粕市场分析 一、蛋白粕市场分析 研究所 本周行情回顾：本周CBOT大豆低位区间震荡，期价从上周触及的17个月高位回落后在1100之上窄幅震荡。美国农业部长布鲁克·罗林斯周一表示，特朗普政府预计将在两周内宣布美国农户 援助计划，并达成中国大豆采购协议，但是她没有提供更多细节。当被问及中国购买美国大豆的承诺时，罗林斯表示，美国将和中国在本周或下周签署协议，补充说她相信中国会履行其采购 承诺。她补充说，种种迹象表明，中国采购承诺依然有效，他们确实会订购1200万吨大豆。如果采购订单在12月底之前下达，这些大豆会在明年初交付。美豆在1100美分/蒲式耳之上震荡。 市场仍在关注中国采购美豆的进展。交易商表示，自周二以来已有至少10船美国大豆被采购。这对美豆有所支撑。与之相比，国内连粕市场震荡走高，前几个交易日市场跟随美豆低位窄幅震 荡，据巴西《圣保罗页报》周三报道，中国禁止6.9万吨巴西大豆入境，因为从货舱内发现 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold will continue to demonstrate its unique allocation value in the medium to long term, supported by factors such as continuous gold purchases by global central banks, monetary policy shifts, ongoing trade uncertainties, and recurring geopolitical risks. Short - term fluctuations in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations only limit gold's upward movement but do not reverse the bullish trend [3][12] - The Fed's interest - rate cut path may be "stop - and - go" due to inflation stickiness and economic data fluctuations. Policy expectation revisions will be a key factor affecting the volatility rhythm of precious metals [3][12] - Global trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine provide support and increase the volatility of precious metals [3][12] Summary by Related Content Fed Policy and Personnel Changes - In 2026, the Fed's Monetary Policy Committee will undergo a major personnel reshuffle. Fed Chair Powell's term ends on May 15, 2026, and Trump's administration is accelerating the selection of a new chair. Five final candidates have been short - listed, with a possible pre - Christmas 2025 announcement. This may lead to a "dual leadership" situation in the first half of 2026 [6] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic will retire in February 2026. His retirement and the selection of his successor will be an important window to observe the White House's influence on the Fed. The Fed's internal policy differences will become more complex, with the dovish camp strengthening and the hawkish camp remaining a counterbalance [7] - Any news of personnel changes may cause the market to re - evaluate the direction of monetary policy, directly affecting precious - metal prices. Investors should closely monitor these changes to predict the 2026 precious - metal market volatility [8] Gold Market Performance in 2025 Q3 - The global gold market showed strong performance in Q3 2025, with both supply and demand booming. Total demand (including over - the - counter transactions) reached 1,313 tons, a record quarterly high, a 3% year - on - year increase. The demand value soared 44% year - on - year to $146 billion. Supply also increased by 3% to 1,313 tons, with mine production rising seasonally to 977 tons and recycled gold supply remaining at a high of 344 tons [8] - The LBMA gold price hit 13 record highs in Q3, with a quarterly average price of $3,456.54 per ounce, a 40% year - on - year increase [8] Gold Market Demand Structure - Investment demand continued to dominate the market in Q3 2025. Global gold ETF holdings increased by 222 tons, and demand for gold bars and coins exceeded 300 tons for the fourth consecutive quarter, reaching 316 tons. Gold jewelry consumption decreased to 371 tons but the consumption value increased to $4.1 billion due to rising gold prices [9] - Global gold ETFs' significant increase in positions drove up the total holdings, with North American and Asian markets being the main sources of capital inflows. As of November 20, 2025, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares, increased by 19.13% compared to the end of 2024, indicating strong institutional demand for gold [9] Price Trends and Investment Suggestions - The COMEX gold futures contract may form strong support in the range of $3,900 - $4,000 per ounce. If it can effectively break through the $4,200 mark, the next target may be around $4,400 per ounce. The Shanghai gold futures contract may fluctuate in the range of 900 - 950 yuan per gram [4][13] - Silver is more elastic due to the resonance of supply - demand tightness and financial attributes. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position strategy when gold prices pull back, and focus on the Fed's interest - rate decision path, inflation data inflection points, and geopolitical situations [4][13]

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货 2026 年投资策略报告 稳经济稳预期 股债双震荡 金融 2025 年 11 月 23 日 主要结论 1、2025 年，国内经济恢复速度逐渐减慢，房地产拖累幅度有所减小。国内主要 经济消费方面，居民就业不平衡-规模性返乡-居民收入预期降低-消费增速低迷不振 循环。投资方面，房地产持续下滑-地方财政收入减少-项目投资与基础建设缺乏力 度-经济恢复缓慢，经济向新质生产力提升，但是新质生产力产生的就业机构与传统 行业产生的就业结构并不一致，经济恢复发展的同时，传统行业带来的就业冲击无 法通过新质生产力经济发展来消耗。2024 年 9 月中国政策逻辑发生转变，开始大力 度刺激经济的货币财政政策，货币方面，大力度降息、下调存量房贷利率等，财政 政策提出化解地方政府隐性债务。2025 年中国经济政策方向转向新质生产力，通过 经济转型升级的方式，进一步提升经济质量。外部方面，特朗普上台之后对打关税 战，对全球贸易形成阻碍，即便中美暂时缓和，特朗普的关税整体上影响全球贸易。 国际局部国家地缘政治或无法完成和平解决。2026 年国内经济政策将会更加注重内 循环，居民、私人企业资产负债表修复 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The supply of coniferous pulp is decreasing due to production cuts by major global coniferous pulp mills, while the increase in broadleaf pulp production makes it difficult to relieve the supply pressure, leading to a continuous differentiation between coniferous and broadleaf pulp. Geopolitical factors have reduced imports from North America, but increased imports from Brazil, Chile, Finland, and Uruguay have supplemented the supply. Overall, China's total pulp imports are at a historically high level. The pulp futures market has been in an adjustment trend since February this year, and attention should be paid to the stabilization of the market. Waiting for the recovery of demand, the market is expected to bottom out and rebound [2][3][14] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In 2025, the pulp futures generally showed a downward trend from a high level. From January to October, it dropped significantly due to increased wood pulp imports, frequent macro disturbances, and poor profitability of downstream paper mills, resulting in weak demand. From October to the present, there has been a slight rebound as the traditional peak season for the paper industry arrived in October, new production capacity of tissue paper enterprises was continuously released, and pulp demand slightly recovered [8] 2. Pulp Fundamental Analysis Import Volume - China has a high degree of external dependence on pulp, especially for bleached softwood pulp. In 2025, from January to October, the cumulative import volume and amount increased by 4.8% and -2.0% respectively compared with the same period last year. Specifically, the cumulative import volume of coniferous pulp was 712.24 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.74%, and that of broadleaf pulp was 1382.63 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.33% [2][13] European Port Inventory - In September 2025, the total inventory of European ports decreased by 4.39% month-on-month and 0.49% year-on-year. Except for the inventory in Spanish ports remaining flat month-on-month, the inventories in ports of the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, the UK, Germany, and Italy decreased by 1.36%, 2.17%, 6.87%, and 9.55% respectively month-on-month [19] Domestic Major Port Inventory - As of November 20, 2025, the total pulp inventory in Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 201.04 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.71%, with the growth rate narrowing by 2.51 percentage points [22] Pulp Consumption - In recent years, the global apparent consumption of pulp has been stable at 1.8 billion tons. In the long run, the global pulp supply and demand are basically balanced. Wastepaper pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption; wood pulp consumption accounts for 31%, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21%; non-wood pulp consumption accounts for 6% [24] Downstream Paper Mills - The operating load rate of downstream paper mills has decreased, the profitability of the paper industry has improved poorly, and they purchase raw materials based on rigid demand. High-price transactions in the pulp market are not smooth. As of November 20, the weekly average price of Silver Star spot was 5560 yuan/ton, and the current gross profit margin was below the break-even line [29] Domestic Market Prices - As of November 20, the weekly average price of imported coniferous pulp was 5567 yuan/ton, a 0.02% increase from last week, with the growth rate narrowing by 1.07 percentage points; the weekly average price of imported broadleaf pulp was 4392 yuan/ton, a 1.62% increase from last week, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.05 percentage points. The downstream paper mills' operating rate has decreased, and high raw material prices have suppressed their purchasing enthusiasm. The domestic broadleaf pulp supply is abundant, and the price increase is weak. The spot market price of imported broadleaf pulp is running weakly [34] 3. Future Outlook - China's high external dependence on pulp remains unchanged, and the import volume and inventory data are similar to the previous analysis. The supply situation of coniferous and broadleaf pulp continues to differentiate, and the pulp futures market has been in an adjustment trend. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the market, and waiting for the recovery of demand, the market is expected to bottom out and rebound [36][37]

Report Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - Globally in the 2025/26 cotton season, supply increases with major producers maintaining high levels, consumption is expected to see slight growth, and trade policies and Fed's interest - rate cuts will impact cotton prices, which are expected to fluctuate widely [2][55]. - In the domestic market for the 2025/26 season, domestic cotton supply significantly increases, new - cotton costs change little, textile enterprise inventories are at a healthy level, and with stable domestic demand and improved exports, cotton prices may rise [3][56]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **ICE Cotton Futures**: The annual trend is divided into two stages. From the beginning of the year to the end of September, it was in a wide - range weak oscillation. From October to the end of the year, it further weakened due to macro - negatives and weak fundamentals [5][6]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Futures**: The annual trend has four stages. It oscillated and then dropped rapidly from the beginning of the year to early April, rebounded from mid - April to mid - July, oscillated from mid - July to late September, and weakened again from late September to the end of the year [7][8]. 2. International Market Analysis - **Global Supply - Demand**: In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton supply - demand situation is slightly looser. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 63.9%, up 1.3 percentage points from 2024/25. Production rises by 300,000 tons, consumption increases slightly by 90,000 tons, and ending inventory increases by 390,000 tons [13]. - **US Cotton**: The USDA raised the 2025/26 production forecast to 14.12 million bales, up 900,000 bales from the September report. Exports are expected to increase to 1.22 million bales, and ending inventory is up 20% to 4.3 million bales. Good weather led to a significant increase in yield [15][16]. - **Brazilian Cotton**: The USDA's November report shows a production forecast of 4.09 million tons, up 110,000 tons month - on - month, and exports are expected to reach 3.16 million tons. Although Brazilian cotton exports were strong in the first three quarters of 2025, future exports may face more competition [22][23]. - **Indian Cotton**: The 2025/26 initial inventory is expected to rise to about 1.03 million tons, a 55% increase. Production is expected to be 5.19 million tons, down 130,000 tons. Domestic consumption is expected to slow to 5.1 million tons. With sufficient supply and increased imports, exports may increase [25][26]. - **Global Economy**: The global economy is showing signs of a mild slow - down. The Fed is in an easing cycle, and there is a possibility of a 50 - basis - point interest - rate cut in 2026. Tariff policies may lead to a re - structuring of the global textile supply chain [29][30]. 3. Domestic Market Analysis - **Supply - Demand**: In the 2025/26 season, domestic production is expected to reach 7.3 million tons, imports are expected to be 1.18 million tons, and consumption is slightly lower than the previous year. Overall, the supply - demand situation is slightly looser [31]. - **Production and Cost**: The USDA estimates the 2025/26 cotton production at 7.3 million tons, while domestic estimates are higher at 7.42 million tons. New - cotton costs are relatively low, with the average machine - picked cotton seed - cotton purchase price in Xinjiang between 6 - 6.5 yuan/kg [35][36]. - **Imports**: It is expected that imports in the 2025/26 season will increase slightly to 1.2 million tons. The reduction of tariffs on US cotton imports from 25% to 15% is expected to promote imports [40]. - **Textile Industry**: Since the second half of 2025, the textile industry has been relatively healthy, with a decrease in pure - cotton yarn inventory and an increase in the industry's prosperity index. In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic sales of textiles and clothing continued to grow moderately [45][46]. - **Exports**: In 2025, the export of textiles and clothing faced complex situations. With the narrowing of the effective tax - rate gap between China and Southeast Asian countries, direct exports to the US are expected to increase significantly in 2026 [50][51]. 4. Conclusion and Operational Suggestions - **International Market**: In the 2025/26 season, global cotton supply increases, consumption may see slight growth, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to trade - policy changes [55]. - **Domestic Market**: In the 2025/26 season, domestic cotton supply increases, new - cotton costs change little, and with stable domestic demand and improved exports, cotton prices may rise [56].

Report Title - Guoxin Futures' 2026 Investment Strategy Report: Bear Market Continues, Sugar Prices Seeking Bottom [1][2] Core Views - In the 2025/26 season, the global sugar market shifts from shortage to surplus. The market is bearish, but negative factors may be digested in advance. Sugar prices may rebound if the supply fails to meet expectations due to weather issues. Low sugar prices may dampen production willingness next year [2][47] - In the domestic market, sugar production is expected to increase for two consecutive years in the 2025/26 season. Imports are likely to remain high, and consumption is expected to stay stable. Sugar prices are on a downward trend and may reverse when supply contracts [3][48] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review International Market - **High-level oscillation (January - April)**: ICE raw sugar prices rebounded to 20.19 cents/pound at the beginning of the year, supported by India's lower-than-expected production. However, with Brazil's new harvest season and other factors, prices fell [4] - **Trend decline (April - early July)**: ICE raw sugar prices dropped from 18.5 cents/pound to 15.44 cents/pound, driven by Brazil's expected bumper harvest and other factors [4] - **Sideways consolidation (July - early October)**: After breaking below 16 cents/pound, prices rebounded and oscillated. Short-term positives supported prices, such as Brazil's increased ethanol blending ratio [5] - **Bottom-seeking stage (mid-October - end of the year)**: Prices fell again, hitting a five-year low of 14.04 cents/pound in early November, due to increased supply from major producers [5] Domestic Market - **High-level oscillation (January - late April)**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices reached a high of 6198 yuan/ton, supported by good domestic sales data. However, concerns about global supply limited the upside [8] - **Periodic decline (May - June)**: Prices dropped from above 6000 yuan/ton to around 5600 yuan/ton, driven by expectations of increased global supply [8] - **Oscillatory rebound (mid-June - late July)**: Prices rebounded to 5893 yuan/ton, as short-term factors such as reduced Brazilian production and low domestic inventories supported the market [9] - **Bottom-seeking stage (August - end of the year)**: Prices fell below 5400 yuan/ton, pressured by international supply and high domestic imports [9] 2. International Market Analysis Global Supply Shift - In the 2025/26 season, global sugar production may reach the second-highest level on record. Consumption is expected to grow slightly, and most institutions predict a surplus of 40 - 750 tons [10] Brazil - In the 2025/26 season, Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach 4500 tons, a historical second-lowest. The 2026/27 season is expected to be good, with a preliminary estimate of 4200 tons. High inventories and low prices may keep export pressure high [15][18] India - In the 2025/26 season, India's sugar production is expected to increase to 3095 tons. Consumption is expected to reach 2900 tons. The government allows 150 tons of exports, but the possibility is low [20][22] Thailand - In the 2025/26 season, Thailand's sugar production may reach 1100 tons, and exports are expected to exceed 800 tons. However, floods and import bans may affect production and exports [24][28] 3. Domestic Market Analysis Inventory Accumulation - In the 2025/26 season, China's sugar production is expected to be 1170 tons, and consumption is expected to be 1570 tons. The market faces inventory accumulation and remains in a bear market [30] Production Increase - In the 2025/26 season, domestic sugar production is expected to increase to over 1170 tons. Guangxi, Yunnan, and other regions are expected to contribute to the increase, but weather and other factors may affect the final output [32] Import Situation - In the 2025/26 season, imports are likely to remain high, but policy changes need attention. The import of syrup and premixed powder is expected to decline, but "roundabout" imports may occur [36][42] Consumption and Policy - Overall sugar consumption is expected to be stable, supported by consumption stimulus policies. In 2026, relevant policies are expected to continue to play a role [43]