Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroscopically, the window period after the China - US tariff policy negotiation lasts until July 9th. Attention should be paid to the market sentiment fluctuations that may be brought about by subsequent tariff policy changes [145]. - Alumina is expected to maintain a volatile trend, with the price range from 2,800 to 3,200 yuan/ton. Key factors include potential cost increases due to bauxite price hikes in Guinea, supply glut from复产 and new - capacity releases, low futures inventory, and policies promoting the exit of backward产能 [145]. - Shanghai Aluminium (SHFE Aluminium) is predicted to fluctuate, with the price range from 19,500 to 21,000 yuan/ton. The supply will remain high, but the demand is in a seasonal slump, and the inventory support may weaken [146]. - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate. High raw material costs support prices, while weak demand during the off - season restricts upward movement [146]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Macro - environment**: On July 1st, the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized governance of low - price disorderly competition, product quality improvement, and the exit of backward产能. The US reached a trade agreement with Vietnam. The US ADP employment in June decreased by 33,000, a negative growth since March 2023. Guinea announced bauxite industry reforms, including creating a bauxite index [8]. - **Spot Market**: As of July 4th, the average domestic alumina spot price was 3,115.75 yuan/ton, down 1.96 yuan/ton from June 27th. The average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market aluminum (A00) was 20,750 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from June 27th [8]. - **Supply Side**: As of July 3rd, the national alumina weekly operating rate was 79.97%, down 0.3% from the previous week. China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) output in June 2025 was 3.609 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.57%, and the cumulative output from January to June was 18.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [11]. - **Demand Side**: As of July 3rd, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 58.7%, down 0.1% from the previous week. The aluminum processing industry PMI in May was 49.83%, below the boom - bust line [12][68]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of July 3rd, the average full - cost of alumina was about 2,863 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from June 27th, with an average profit of about 250 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum smelting cost was about 16,507 yuan/ton, down 357 yuan/ton from June 27th, and the average profit expanded to about 4,350 yuan/ton [12]. - **Inventory**: As of July 3rd, the aluminum ingot inventory was 474,000 tons, up 11,000 tons from June 27th, and the aluminum rod inventory was 153,500 tons, up 11,000 tons from June 27th [13]. - **Market Trends**: This week, alumina, SHFE Aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a volatile and slightly upward trend [16]. 2. Alumina Fundamental Analysis - **Spot Market**: As of July 4th, the domestic alumina spot price stopped falling and rebounded, with the spot premium narrowing to 76 yuan/ton. Future prices are expected to be under downward pressure due to increased supply willingness [28]. - **Supply**: As of July 3rd, the national alumina weekly operating rate was 79.97%, down 0.3% from the previous week. The total operating capacity is 93.45 million tons, and a new roasting production line is planned to be put into operation in mid - to - late July, which is bearish for prices in the long run [32]. - **Import and Export**: As of July 3rd, the FOB price of Australian alumina was 361.6 US dollars/ton, down nearly 9 US dollars/ton from June 27th. Both import and export windows are closed [34]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of July 3rd, the average full - cost of alumina was about 2,863 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from June 27th, and the average profit was about 250 yuan/ton, with normal profitability [37]. - **Inventory**: As of July 3rd, the alumina port inventory was 43,000 tons, up 17,400 tons from the previous week, at a four - year low. In May 2025, China's alumina imports decreased year - on - year, while exports increased year - on - year [41][42]. 3. Electrolytic Aluminum Fundamental Analysis - **Cost Side**: As of July 3rd, coal prices in Yulin slightly increased, while those in other regions remained stable. The hydropower price in Yunnan in June decreased to about 0.41 yuan/kWh. The price of pre - baked anodes in major production areas decreased this week [50][53]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of July 3rd, the electrolytic aluminum smelting cost was about 16,507 yuan/ton, down 357 yuan/ton from June 27th, mainly due to lower power costs. The average industry profit expanded to about 4,350 yuan/ton [55]. - **Supply Side**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) output was 3.609 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.57%. The cumulative output from January to June was 18.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity operating rate in June was 96%, unchanged from the previous month [57]. - **Spot Market**: As of July 4th, the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market aluminum (A00) was 20,750 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from June 27th [60]. - **Aluminum Price and Premium**: This week, the SHFE Aluminum main contract was volatile and slightly weak, and the spot price was volatile and falling, with the spot turning to a discount. LME Aluminum was volatile and slightly strong, with a spot discount [67]. - **Demand Side**: As of July 3rd, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 58.7%, down 0.1% from the previous week. The aluminum processing industry PMI in May was 49.83%, below the boom - bust line, indicating a deepening of the off - season effect [68]. - **Inventory**: As of July 3rd, the aluminum ingot inventory was 474,000 tons, up 11,000 tons from June 27th, and the aluminum rod inventory was 153,500 tons, up 11,000 tons from June 27th. The low inventory of aluminum ingots still supports prices, but the support may weaken during the off - season [76]. - **Futures Inventory**: As of July 4th, 2025, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory was 38,485 tons, up 4,095 tons from June 27th. From June 27th to July 4th, the LME aluminum inventory increased by 11,775 tons to 356,975 tons [79]. - **Import and Export**: The aluminum ingot import profit window is closed. In May 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased year - on - year, while imports increased year - on - year [82][88]. - **Terminal Demand**: The real estate market is slowly recovering, and the new energy vehicle market is relatively bright. In June, the retail sales of the national passenger vehicle market and the new energy passenger vehicle market increased year - on - year [90][92]. 4. Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Analysis - **Raw Materials**: The supply and price of scrap aluminum are important factors affecting the cost of aluminum alloy. The price of scrap aluminum remains high, and recent increases in copper and silicon prices also contribute to cost increases [18]. - **ADC12 Spot Price**: The average price of ADC12 shows seasonal fluctuations, and different regions have different price levels [111]. - **Supply**: The production of ADC12 and the import and export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy are important indicators of supply [117]. - **Demand**: The automotive industry is the main demand side for cast aluminum alloy, and the demand has obvious seasonality [125][133]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory of aluminum alloy and the factory inventory of recycled aluminum alloy sample enterprises are important indicators of inventory status [134]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of aluminum alloy reflects the relationship between supply and demand in the market [138].

研究所 供应压力暂减 生猪表现偏强 ——国信期货生猪周报 2025年07月06日 研究所 1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 关键数据与图表 CONTENTS 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 3 1.生猪期货行情 研究所 周度分析与展望 研究所 过去一周生猪现货强势上涨，因养殖集团缩量及二育入场增加推升，期货主力LH09明显上涨。基差先强后弱，但整体同比正 常偏高水平。基本面来看，从仔猪出生数据及饲料产销量来推断，后期理论供应整体充足；但春季仔猪腹泻疾病对供应的影响 将在7、8月体现，市场对出栏存有阶段性断档的担忧。此外，7月养殖集团计划日均出栏量较上6月收缩，同时二育预计也会 逢低入场以赶在后期旺季出栏，因此，预计近期现货仍表现偏强。目前盘面相对现货有一定贴水，基差对其有一定支撑。操作 上，短多思路。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 数据来源:WIND, 国信期货 4 2.生猪现货行情 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 数据来源:WIND,涌益咨询, 国信期货 5 3.生猪现货：区域及均重调整后的基差 研究所 | 日期 | 2025/ ...

研究所 郑糖预计转为震荡 关注加工糖 郑商所白糖期货价格走势 郑糖本周下挫后回升，周度跌幅0.4%。 ICE期糖大幅波动，周度跌幅1.92%。 数据来源：博易云 国信期货 ——国信期货白糖周报 2025年7月6日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 白糖市场分析 2 后市展望 一、白糖市场分析 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 3 ICE期糖价格走势 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1、现货价格及基差走势 研究所 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 2、全国产销情况 研究所 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 10月 11月 12月 1月 2月 3月 4 月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 2022/2023 2023/2024 2024/2025 2024/25榨季，5月累计销糖率72.69%，同比加快6.52个百分点。 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 3、食糖进口情况 研究所 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1月 2月 3月 4 月 5月 6月 7月 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current demand side dominates the pulp price trend. With stable domestic pulp supply and market dynamic gaming, the center of the transaction price may continue to be weak. The operating load rate of downstream paper mills is difficult to increase significantly, and the market lacks confidence. However, the relatively firm FOB quotations of hardwood pulp may provide some support to the spot market. It is expected that the pulp price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term. Currently, the pulp futures market has reached a low - level range, and whether it can rebound depends on the stabilization of demand and the macro - situation. If there is no obvious improvement, the rebound height may be limited [35] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. This Week's Market Review - The main contract of pulp futures, SP2509, hovered at a low level [6] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Price**: As of July 3, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,824 yuan/ton, down 1.19% from last week, and the decline rate widened by 0.32 percentage points compared with the previous period; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,058 yuan/ton, down 1.39% from last week, and the decline rate widened by 0.76 percentage points; the weekly average price of imported natural pulp was 5,155 yuan/ton, down 0.62% from last week, turning from stable to declining; the weekly average price of imported chemimechanical pulp was 3,775 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from last week, turning from stable to declining [13] - **Pulp Import Volume**: In May, the pulp import volume was 3.016 million tons. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 15.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. Among them, from January to May 2025, the cumulative import of softwood pulp was 3.803 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.88%; the cumulative import of hardwood pulp was 7.1081 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.03% [17][35] - **Port Inventory**: As of July 3, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports such as Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 2.176 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.32%, turning from a decline to an increase [21] - **European Port Inventory in May**: In May 2025, the total inventory in European ports increased by 13.26% month - on - month and 22.04% compared with May 2024. In May, the port inventories in the UK and Spain decreased by 39.93% and 3.92% month - on - month respectively, while the port inventories in the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, Germany, and Italy increased by 21.74%, 5.12%, and 16.36% month - on - month respectively. Overall, the port inventories in most European countries increased month - on - month, leading to an increase in the total European port inventory in May [24] - **Consumption Situation**: Waste pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption; wood pulp consumption accounts for 31% of the total pulp consumption, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21% of the total pulp consumption; non - wood pulp consumption accounts for 6% of the total pulp consumption. The operating load rate of double - copper paper remained flat at 62.60% month - on - month; the operating load rate of double - offset paper was 49.10% this week, down 0.87 percentage points from last week; the weekly operating load rate and output of the white cardboard industry declined compared with last week, with the operating load rate dropping by 0.44 percentage points and the output decreasing by 0.67%, and the decline rate narrowing by 0.44 percentage points compared with last week; the operating load rate of the sampled household paper enterprises decreased by 1.71 percentage points compared with last week, and the decline rate widened by 1.10 percentage points, and the output decreased by 2.88% compared with last week, and the decline rate widened by 1.86 percentage points [30] 3. Future Outlook - The current demand side dominates the pulp price trend. With stable domestic pulp supply and market dynamic gaming, the center of the transaction price may continue to be weak. The operating load rate of downstream paper mills is difficult to increase significantly, and the market lacks confidence. However, the relatively firm FOB quotations of hardwood pulp may provide some support to the spot market. It is expected that the pulp price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term. Currently, the pulp futures market has reached a low - level range, and whether it can rebound depends on the stabilization of demand and the macro - situation. If there is no obvious improvement, the rebound height may be limited [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - The opening price of early-maturing apples is high, which may provide support for the market. In the short term, it is recommended to adopt a bullish and oscillatory trading strategy [34]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, the main contract of apple futures, AP2510, showed a relatively strong performance [8]. 2. Supply-side Situation - As of July 3, 2025, the total remaining cold storage apple volume in the country was 909,200 tons, at the lowest level in the past five years. The remaining cold storage volume in Shandong was 554,500 tons, and in Shaanxi, it was 242,800 tons [13]. 3. Demand-side Situation - As of July 3, 2025, the national cold storage inventory ratio was about 6.88%, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.69 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 3.59 percentage points. The destocking rate was 89.18%. Apples are in the off-season for consumption, and the shipment speed in the producing areas is slow [18]. - In May 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 45,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 37.38% and a year-on-year decrease of 25.15%. It is expected that the export volume of fresh apples in the second quarter of 2025 may decline [20]. - As of July 4, the mainstream price of apples in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable. The transaction volume increased slightly, and the mainstream price changed little [30]. 4. Market Outlook - The trading logic of the futures market will gradually shift from the sales situation of old-season apples to the production and purchase of new-season apples. The high opening price of early-maturing apples may provide support for the market [34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) fluctuated after rising this week, and the market trend became entangled. The spot market in Xinjiang maintained a high basis, and the warehouse receipts flowed out slightly. The trade agreement between Vietnam and the US was negative for Chinese exports. Hail damaged some cotton fields in Xinjiang, but the impact on overall production was limited. The market expected the issuance of quotas, and the price was blocked at 14,000 yuan/ton. It was necessary to wait for policy clarity, and the expected impact of the policy might be reduced. - Internationally, the trade agreement between the US and Vietnam was beneficial for US cotton exports. The actual sown area of US cotton in the new season decreased by only 10% year - on - year and was higher than market expectations. International cotton prices were expected to fluctuate in the short term. - The operation suggestion was to focus on short - term trading [50]. 3. Summary by Directory Cotton Market Analysis - **Futures Price Trends**: Zhengzhou cotton futures rose 0.15% this week after rising and then falling, while ICE cotton futures weakened with a weekly decline of 1.28% [9]. - **Spot Prices**: This week, the cotton price index increased. The 3128 index rose 85 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the 2129 index rose 91 yuan/ton [14]. - **Cotton Import Situation**: In May, 40,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons [16]. - **Cotton Inventory Situation**: In May, the commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 315,400 tons, and the industrial cotton inventory was 941,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 55,200 tons [25]. - **Downstream Inventory Situation**: In May, the yarn inventory was 22.34 days, a year - on - year decrease of 5.19 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 32.89 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.94 days [30]. - **Yarn Prices**: This week, yarn prices increased. The price of OEC10S yarn rose 20 yuan/ton, C32S yarn rose 40 yuan/ton, and JC40S yarn rose 30 yuan/ton compared to last week [34]. - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts**: This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 191. There were 10,140 warehouse receipts and 266 valid forecasts, totaling 10,406 [38]. - **US Cotton Export Situation**: As of June 26, the net sales of US upland cotton exports in the current year increased by 23,700 bales, and the net sales in the next year were 106,600 bales [41][44]. 后市展望 - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated after rising this week, and the market trend was entangled. The basis in Xinjiang remained high, and warehouse receipts flowed out slightly. The trade agreement between Vietnam and the US was negative for Chinese exports. Hail damaged some cotton fields in Xinjiang, but the impact on overall production was limited. The market expected the issuance of quotas, and the price was blocked at 14,000 yuan/ton. It was necessary to wait for policy clarity [50]. - **International Market**: The trade agreement between the US and Vietnam was beneficial for US cotton exports. The actual sown area of US cotton in the new season decreased by only 10% year - on - year and was higher than market expectations. International cotton prices were expected to fluctuate in the short term. - **Operation Suggestion**: Focus on short - term trading [50].

Report Title - Bio - diesel Policy Favorable, US Soybean Oil Leads the Rise of Oils and Fats - Guoxin Futures Weekly Report on Oils and Oilseeds [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The protein meal market: Internationally, the probability of abnormal weather for US soybeans is decreasing, and policy may be the key factor affecting the market. US soybeans may run within the range of 950 - 1100 cents. Domestically, the inventory of soybean meal is accelerating, and the Dalian soybean meal market will face the game between cost increase and supply easing, with short - term low - level fluctuations. [136] - The oils and fats market: Internationally, the MPOB report is expected to be favorable, and the US soybean oil market has positive policies for biodiesel. Domestically, the market follows the international trend, with short - term volatile strength, and it is advisable to adopt interval band operations or double - selling option strategies. [136] Section Summaries 1. Protein Meal Market Analysis 1.1 Market Trends - CBOT soybeans rebounded from a low level this week. The near - month contracts were pressured by the higher - than - expected quarterly inventory report at the end of June, while the far - month contracts were supported by the slightly lower - than - expected planting area report. The US Senate's new tax bill and Trump's speech also affected the market. The main contract of US soybeans fluctuated between 950 - 1100 cents. Dalian soybean meal oscillated higher at a low level, with a weaker increase than US soybeans. [6] 1.2 US Soybean Export - The US soybean export inspection volume increased by 11% from the previous week but decreased by 30% year - on - year. As of June 26, 2025, the export inspection volume was 224,787 tons. The total export inspection volume for the 2024/25 season reached 45,851,787 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%, and 91.1% of the revised export target has been achieved. [12] 1.3 North American Weather - In the US, there were active weather conditions in many areas, with heavy rainfall in some parts and drought in others. There were also wildfires in the west. In Canada, the rainfall in the prairies was generally low, and some areas in Saskatchewan experienced drought. [24][30] 1.4 Global Oilseed Market - The US soybean inventory as of June 1 was 1.008 billion bushels, a 4% year - on - year increase. The 2025 US soybean planting area was adjusted down to 83.38 million acres. Argentina restored the original tax rates for soybeans and other crops. The EU's rapeseed production in 2025/26 is expected to increase, while sunflower seed production is expected to decrease. Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production is estimated to reach a record high of 168.75 million tons. [35][36][37] 1.5 Trade Pattern Changes - Italy will increase imports of US soybeans. Trump is rumored to reveal the progress of the trade agreement with China, and the US has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam. [39] 1.6 Domestic Soybean Situation - The domestic spot and futures crushing margins of soybeans have declined. As of the end of this week, the inventory of imported soybeans at domestic ports was about 5.988 million tons, and it is expected to be 5.04 million tons next weekend. The cost of imported soybeans from the US Gulf for September shipment is 4,620 yuan/ton, and that from Brazil is 3,917 yuan/ton. [45][48] 1.7 Soybean Meal Situation - As of the end of the 26th week (June 28), the average soybean opening rate of domestic oil mills was 67.05%, a decrease of 4.44% from the previous week. The inventory of soybean meal was 751,000 tons, an increase of 217,000 tons from the previous week. The estimated apparent consumption of soybean meal in the 26th week was 1.7513 million tons, a decrease from the previous week. [53][57] 1.8 Rapeseed Meal Situation - As of the end of the 26th week (June 28), the weekly opening rate of domestic imported rapeseed processing enterprises was 13.82%, a 0.73% increase from the previous week. The inventory of imported crushed rapeseed meal was 9,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week. [63] 2. Oils and Fats Market Analysis 2.1 Market Trends - International oils and fats oscillated higher this week, with US soybean oil rising significantly due to the favorable policy for biodiesel. Malaysian palm oil also rose, and domestic oils and fats followed the trend. Dalian palm oil led the rise, Zhengzhou rapeseed oil oscillated strongly, and Dalian soybean oil rose and then fell. [70] 2.2 International Oils and Fats Information - Malaysian palm oil exports increased in June, with different performance for different varieties. Indonesia raised the reference price of palm oil in July. Indian importers cancelled some palm oil import orders. The US Senate's new tax bill is favorable for US soybeans and corn growers. The production of South Malaysian palm oil decreased in June. [74][75][76][77][78] 2.3 Domestic Oils and Fats Situation - As of the end of the 26th week in 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.4565 million tons, a weekly increase of 188,100 tons. The inventory of soybean oil was 1.0609 million tons, an increase of 75,000 tons; the inventory of edible palm oil was 511,500 tons, an increase of 113,400 tons; the inventory of rapeseed oil was 884,100 tons, a decrease of 400 tons. [93] 2.4 Arbitrage Relationships - This week, the oil - meal ratio of beans and rapeseeds decreased slightly, and the spread between the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased slightly. The 9 - 1 spread of soybean meal continued to decline, and the 9 - 1 spread of soybean oil decreased significantly, while the 9 - 1 spread of palm oil fluctuated narrowly. [113][117][119] 3. Market Outlook 3.1 Technical Analysis - For soybean meal, short - term indicators are entangled, medium - term indicators are bearish, and long - term indicators are entangled. For rapeseed meal, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators are all entangled. For soybean oil, short - term indicators are entangled, medium - term indicators are bullish, and long - term indicators are entangled. For palm oil, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators are all bullish. For rapeseed oil, short - term and medium - term indicators are bullish, and long - term indicators are entangled. [135] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Protein meal: Internationally, the probability of weather speculation for US soybeans is decreasing, and policy is the key factor. Domestically, the inventory of soybean meal is accelerating, and the market will face the game between cost increase and supply easing. - Oils and fats: Internationally, the MPOB report is expected to be favorable, and the US soybean oil market has positive policies. Domestically, the market follows the international trend, with short - term volatile strength, and it is advisable to adopt interval band operations or double - selling option strategies. [136]

国信期货软商品半年报 国信期货研究 Page 1 潮平两岸阔 风正一帆悬 棉花 2025 年 6 月 30 日 主要结论 棉花：国内市场综合来看，当前多空交织的局面下，双方力量都在酝酿之中， 短期由于市场对于库存的担忧开始走向震荡偏多的格局，如果后续没有进口配额 发放以及储备投放，消费不出现崩溃的情况下，市场将走向小概率的多头极端情 形。如果增发进口配额，且消费走弱，库存累积，市场将从当前震荡偏强格局转 向震荡偏弱的格局。如果增发进口配额并且进行抛储，同时下游消费坍塌，宏观 方面也利空，将出现低概率的极端空头局面。 从业资格号：F3037058 投资咨询号：Z0013232 电话：021-55007766-305169 邮箱：15227@guosen.com.cn 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】116 号 分析师：侯雅婷 国际市场综合来看，宏观影响对于棉市仍有较大不确定性，中美谈判以及美 国和其他国家的博弈影响全球贸易流的走向。国际局势的变动导致原油价格波 动，使得棉花替代品价格波动，以及原油商品之母的带动，都会间接影响国际棉 价。基本面上，北半球种植面积逐步确定，后期主产国天气仍是市场焦点 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, nickel prices showed an overall oscillating downward trend. The supply - side surplus intensified with increasing refined nickel production, high LME nickel inventory, and continuous stockpiling. The demand - side was structurally weak, with limited demand pull from the new energy sector and low demand in the stainless - steel industry [6][50]. - The macro - economic situation in the US and China had different impacts on the nickel market. In the US, the Fed's interest - rate policy was uncertain due to inflation and tariff issues. In China, the economy showed strong resilience and structural optimization, but the nickel market was affected by factors such as high inventory and weak demand [4][5]. - In the second half of the year, attention should be paid to the adjustment of Indonesia's nickel ore policy, the reduction efforts of the stainless - steel industry, and the marginal improvement of new energy demand [51]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Market Review - In 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel futures showed a complex trend of "rushing up and then falling back - oscillating to build a bottom - stage rebound - falling back again". It was affected by factors such as Indonesia's nickel ore policy, new energy demand expectations, refined nickel stockpiling, stainless - steel demand, and US tariff increases [10]. II. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Supply - side Analysis - **LME and SHFE Inventory**: Since the second half of 2023, both LME and SHFE nickel inventories have shown a steady upward trend. As of late June 2025, SHFE inventory was 25,304 tons, and LME inventory was 204,216 tons [13]. - **Nickel Port Inventory**: As of June 20, 2025, nickel port inventory was 4.6591 million tons [15]. - **Import of Philippine Nickel Ore**: The import of Philippine nickel ore sand and concentrates in China showed seasonal fluctuations [16]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Price**: The prices of domestic and imported electrolytic nickel have shown a weak oscillating trend this year, closing at around 120,180 yuan/ton in late June [21]. - **Nickel Sulfate Price**: As of June 26, 2025, the nickel sulfate price dropped to 28,930 yuan/ton [25]. - **Nickel Iron Import Volume and Price**: On June 26, 2025, the Fubao price of nickel iron (8% - 12%) was 940 yuan/nickel [27]. 2.2 Demand - side Analysis - **Stainless - steel Price and Position**: The stainless - steel futures price showed a weak downward trend, with the market range in the first half of the year approximately between 12,300 yuan/ton and 13,700 yuan/ton [32]. - **Stainless - steel Inventory**: As of June 20, 2025, the inventories of 300 - series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan were 475,200 tons and 184,100 tons respectively [37]. - **Production of Power and Energy - storage Batteries**: The production of power and energy - storage batteries showed certain trends, but specific analysis was not detailed in the report [40]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production**: The production of new energy vehicles also showed certain trends, but specific analysis was not detailed in the report [48]. III. Outlook for the Future - In the first half of 2025, the domestic refined nickel production continued to climb, with the cumulative output from January to May reaching 173,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.99%. The over - supply pattern in the market intensified, and the demand was weak. The stainless - steel industry showed characteristics of "high production, high inventory, and low demand" [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International corn market is expected to be loose as major producers' output is likely to increase, and global corn prices will likely maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern [2][35] - In the domestic market, before the new crop is launched, the supply - demand situation of corn is generally tight, but considering imports, substitutes, and policy - sourced grains, the overall energy raw material supply is sufficient. After the new corn is launched in the fourth quarter, the corn market may face pressure [2][35] - In the third quarter, the general idea is to buy on dips and be cautious about chasing up. In the fourth quarter, pay attention to the new crop's launch. If the output is good, a bearish view is advisable [2][35] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In the first half of 2025, domestic corn prices rose from a low level. Futures prices rose less than spot prices due to the previous premium. The spot price at Jinzhou Port increased from around 2,050 yuan in early January to around 2,380 yuan. Dalian corn futures led the increase, but the upward trend slowed down in the second quarter with several adjustments [4] 2. International Corn Market Analysis 2.1 US Corn Supply Expected to Increase Significantly - The USDA's May report estimated that the 2025/26 corn planting area in the US will be 95.3 million acres, with a yield of 181 bushels per acre and a total output of 15.8 billion bushels. Supply is expected to increase significantly compared to the previous year, and consumption will increase steadily, leading to a significant rise in ending stocks [6] 2.2 South American G2 Output Resumes Growth and Exports Are Expected to Increase - In 2024/25, Brazil's corn output is estimated to be 130 million tons, and Argentina's is 50 million tons. For 2025/26, Brazil's output is expected to be 131 million tons, and Argentina's is 53 million tons. Brazil and Argentina's exports are likely to increase in the coming months with the launch of Brazil's second - season corn [9] 2.3 Ukraine's Supply Capacity Expected to Recover - Ukraine's 2025/26 corn output is estimated to be 30.5 million tons, an increase of 3.7 million tons from the previous year. Exports will recover to 24 million tons, and ending stocks will be 597,000 tons [11] 2.4 Regions Outside China to See Slightly Looser Supply - Demand - In 2025/26, the corn output of regions outside China will be 970 million tons, an increase of about 42 million tons from 2024/25. Exports are expected to be 195 million tons, an increase of about 7 million tons from the previous year, and ending stocks will reach 9.407 million tons, an increase of about 7 million tons [15] 3. Domestic Corn Market Analysis 3.1 2025/26 Output to Increase Slightly - The 2025/26 domestic corn output is expected to be 296 million tons, an increase of about 1 million tons from the previous year. The total planting area will remain stable with a slight increase, ensuring domestic supply [16] 3.2 Imports: Later Imports to Increase - In 2024/25, the cumulative corn imports were 1.52 million tons, a decrease of about 19.2 million tons from the previous year. The theoretical import profit has expanded, and with the launch of Brazil's second - season corn, later imports are expected to increase significantly [20] 3.3 Demand: Expanding Breeding Scale and Increasing Feed Consumption - From January to May 2025, the national industrial feed output was 130.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. The recovery of the pig and poultry breeding industries will support the consumption of pig and poultry feed [25] 3.4 Deep - processing: Weak Economic Situation and Decreasing Deep - processing Demand - Due to the weak macro - economic situation, the consumption of deep - processed corn products has declined. The corn processing volume of sample deep - processing enterprises decreased by about 4% year - on - year. Corn starch deep - processing is not expected to improve significantly [28][30] 3.5 Substitutes: Domestic Raw Materials Key to Filling the Energy Raw Material Gap - Wheat has a substitution advantage over corn in North China, but large - scale substitution has not occurred in the South. The impact of imported substitutes on domestic corn is weakening. The auctions of aged rice and imported corn are uncertain factors [32] 4. Conclusion and Outlook - The international corn market is expected to be loose, and domestic corn supply will be tight before the new crop is launched. After the new crop is launched in the fourth quarter, the market may face pressure. In the third quarter, buy on dips; in the fourth quarter, be bearish if the output is good [35]