Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies of various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and shipping. It also mentions the impact of factors such as US tariff policies, economic data, and geopolitical events on the market [2][4][5]. - Different commodities have different trends and investment suggestions. For example, gold is recommended to hold long - positions, while some other commodities suggest waiting and seeing or taking corresponding trading strategies according to market conditions [2][3]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Last week, precious metal prices rose significantly, with international gold prices hitting a new high. Given the consistent short - term market expectations, it is recommended to hold long positions in gold [2]. - **Silver**: Domestic silver prices have rebounded, with good spot consumption and inventory reduction. It is recommended to appropriately reduce short positions in silver or go long on the gold - silver ratio [2]. Base Metals - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum market shows that the 2505 contract price decreased by 0.56% compared to the previous trading day. Supply is increasing slightly, while demand is slightly decreasing. Due to the uncertainty of US tariff policies, aluminum prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term, but supply shortages and low inventories support prices. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Alumina**: The 2505 contract price increased by 0.54% compared to the previous trading day. Supply is decreasing due to maintenance and production cuts, while demand is increasing. The oversupply pattern is difficult to change without substantial large - scale production cuts, and prices are expected to rebound and then maintain a weak - oscillating trend. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The market is characterized by oversupply. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rallies [2][3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply is increasing, while domestic and overseas demand expectations are divided. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short term as it shifts to a warehouse - receipt pricing logic, considering the expected shortage of warehouse - receipt resources [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract is oscillating strongly. Steel supply and demand are weakening marginally. It is expected that steel prices will oscillate strongly this week. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and hold short positions in the 05 contract's coil - ore ratio [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract is oscillating strongly. The supply and demand of iron ore are moderately strong, but the medium - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that prices will oscillate strongly this week. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and hold short positions in the 05 contract's coil - ore ratio [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2505 contract is oscillating weakly. The overall supply and demand are relatively loose, and futures are over - valued. It is recommended to wait and see [4][5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans are expected to oscillate, while domestic soybean meal is expected to oscillate upward. Mid - term attention should be paid to trade policies and US soybean planting area changes [5]. - **Corn**: The 2505 contract is oscillating narrowly. Supply and demand are improving, and prices are expected to oscillate upward [5]. - **Vegetable Oils**: The short - term driving force for palm oil is weak. Mid - term attention should be paid to future production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies [5]. - **White Sugar**: Domestically, prices are likely to rise in the short term but have limited upside in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to stop losses on short positions or wait and see temporarily [5]. - **Log**: The 07 contract is oscillating. The price is under downward pressure, but there is support at the bottom. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the July delivery situation [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2505 contract is rising. Supply is decreasing, demand is increasing, and inventory is low. Futures prices are expected to oscillate upward [6]. - **Pigs**: The 2505 contract is oscillating narrowly. Supply is increasing, and prices are expected to decline resistantly. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of enterprises and the trend of secondary fattening [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The short - term market is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to short on rallies. In the long term, with new device production, supply and demand will gradually ease, and it is recommended to short on rallies for far - month contracts [7]. - **PVC**: The market is in a weak supply - demand situation and is oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to hedge after the premium recovers [8]. - **PTA**: Supply is decreasing, and inventory is expected to decrease in April. Attention should be paid to export orders after the suspension of tariffs. Positive spread opportunities can be considered [8]. - **Glass**: The market is oscillating in a range. It is expected to continue to oscillate within the range [8]. - **PP**: The short - term market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to whether the suspension of US tariffs will lead to pre - emptive exports and the start - up rate of PDH devices [8]. - **MEG**: Supply is decreasing, and inventory is expected to decrease in April. It is expected to run strongly in the short term but has a pessimistic long - term outlook [8][9]. - **Crude Oil**: With OPEC +'s increased production and the impact of trade frictions, oil prices face significant downward risks. It is recommended to short on rallies for far - month contracts and wait and see [9]. - **Styrene**: The short - term market is expected to oscillate upward following the cost (pure benzene) and conduct positive spread trading [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The market is oscillating weakly, with relatively healthy supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply and demand are weak, and prices are expected to continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the 2200 support level [10]. Shipping - **European Line Container Shipping**: The overall outlook for shipping rates is pessimistic under the trade war. In the short term, there will be a supply - demand mismatch in Southeast Asian routes, and European line shipping rates are expected to be pessimistic. It is recommended to conduct positive spread trading from June to October and short on rallies for the October contract [11].

金融研究 2025年4月11日 星期五 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：4 月 10 日，A 股四大股指延续强势，其中上证指数上涨 1.16%，报收 3223.64 点；深成 指上涨 2.25%，报收 9754.64 点；创业板指上涨 2.27%，报收 1900.53 点；科创 50 指数上涨 1.09%， 报收 991.22 点。市场成交 16,590 亿元，较前日减少 820 亿元。行业板块方面，商贸零售(+4.83%)， 纺织服饰(+3.78%)，有色金属(+3.42%)涨幅居前；煤炭(+0.09%)，公用事业(+0.19%)，农林牧渔 (+0.52%)跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,948/72/382。沪深两市， 机构、主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 158、-78、-154、75 亿元，分别变动+41、+4、-17、 -28 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 118.39、91.86、35.32 与 16.62 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-21.32%、-17.26%、-9.85% ...

期货研究 2025年04月11日 星期五 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周四贵金属价格继续反弹，以伦敦金计价的国际金价再创新高；消息面，美国众议院以 217 票赞 成、213 票反对的表决结果，通过了一份预算框架议案；特朗普称不排除延长 90 天关税暂停期的可能性。经 济数据方面，美国 3 月 CPI 数据表现低于预期，同比上涨 2.4%，为 7 个月来最低水平，略低于预期的 2.5%， 较前值 2.8%明显下降；环比-0.1%，为 2024 年 6 月以来首次为负，核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.8%，涨幅为连续第 二个月回落，创 2021 年 3 月以来最低记录，低于预期的 3%，前值为 3.1%；核心 CPI 环比 0.1%。库存数据 方面，印度 2 月白银进口减至 250 吨左右；上期所白银库存昨日减少 28 吨至 1012 吨，金交所白银库存上周 增加 37 吨 1768 吨。伦敦 3 月库存减少 335 吨至 22124 吨，主要流向美国。近期国内白银价格反弹，现货消 费较好，库存去化。操作上，贸易战反复，建议白银空单控制仓位或者做多金银比。风险点：贸易战反复 基 ...

金融研究 2025年4月10日 星期四 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：4 月 9 日，A 股四大股指延续强势，其中上证指数上涨 1.31%，报收 3186.81 点；深成指 上涨 1.22%，报收 9539.89 点；创业板指上涨 0.98%，报收 1858.36 点；科创 50 指数上涨 4.31%， 报收 980.57 点。市场成交 17,410 亿元，较前日增加 878 亿元。行业板块方面，农林牧渔(+0.58%)， 商贸零售(+5.18%)，食品饮料(+1.21%)涨幅居前；电子(+3.24%)，汽车(+1.23%)，通信(+2.24%)跌 幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,526/99/777。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 117、-82、-137、103 亿元，分别变动+377、+317、-127、-567 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 138.33、107.77、46.59 与 21.3 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-24.47%、-19.81%、-12.64%与-8.2%，三年期历 ...

2025年04月10日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周三贵金属价格反弹；消息面，美联储会议纪要显示大多数官员担心关税对通胀影响持续更久， 一些人表示若通胀持续存在，增长和就业前景却减弱，可能面临"艰难取舍"；几乎全体支持上月会议的放慢 缩表决定，但多人认为此次会议没有信服的放慢理由；特朗普表示暂缓对中国以外国家的关税 90 天；经济数 据方面，欧央行表示贸易战可能拖累欧盟 GDP 约 0.25%，全年增速仅 1%。库存数据方面，印度 2 月白银进 口减至 250 吨左右；上期所白银库存昨日减少 64 吨至 1060 吨，金交所白银库存上周增加 37 吨 1768 吨。伦 敦 3 月库存减少 335 吨至 22124 吨，主要流向美国。近期国内白银价格走低，点价盘涌现，出现库存去化。 操作上，贸易战反复，建议白银空单控制仓位或者做多金银比。风险点：贸易战反复 基本金属 招商评论 铜 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏弱运行，但凌晨一点之后特朗普宣布对除了中国外的大部分国家关税下调到 10% 且暂缓 90 天增税，外盘铜价大幅上行。精废价差 1500 元左右。交易策略：建议逢 ...

金融研究 2025年4月9日 星期三 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：4 月 8 日，A 股四大股指全线反弹，其中上证指数上涨 1.58%，报收 3145.55 点；深成指 上涨 0.64%，报收 9424.68 点；创业板指上涨 1.83%，报收 1840.31 点；科创 50 指数上涨 1.72%， 报收 940.09 点。市场成交 16,532 亿元，较前日增加 352 亿元。行业板块方面，农林牧渔(+7.81%)， 商贸零售(+3.44%)，食品饮料(+3.37%)涨幅居前；电子(-1.69%)，汽车(-1.63%)，通信(-0.93%)跌幅 居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 3,297/60/2,044。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-260、-400、-11、671 亿元，分别变动+516、+360、-252、-624 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 136.02、118.71、76.16 与 53.55 点，基差年化收益率 分别为-23.65%、-21.43%、-20.06%与-20%，三年期 ...

2025年04月09日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | | 市场表现：周二贵金属价格继震荡；消息面，白宫新闻秘书莱维特表示近期不会实施关税豁免并确认周三对 | | | | | | | | | | | 金 | | 别国征关税的计划；加拿大宣布对美汽车的对等关税也于周三生效。经济数据方面，美国石油协会（API）数 | | | | | | | | | | | 属 | 据显示，4 月 4 | 日当周，美国 原油库存 +603.7 万桶；关税紧张局势加速了企业 | | | API | -105.7 | 万桶，之前一周 | | | | | | | | 债券的抛售，信用利差已达 472 基点，距离 基点的危险阈值仅一步之遥。库存数据方面，印度 | | | | 500 | | | | 2 | 月白银 | | | 进口减至 250 | 吨左右；上期所白银库存昨日减少 吨，金交所白银库存上周增加 | ...

金融研究 2025年4月8日 星期二 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：4 月 7 日，A 股四大股指回调较深，其中上证指数下跌 7.34%，报收 3096.58 点；深成指 下跌 9.66%，报收 9364.5 点；创业板指下跌 12.5%，报收 1807.21 点；科创 50 指数下跌 9.22%， 报收 924.17 点。市场成交 16,180 亿元，较前日增加 4,597 亿元。行业板块方面，计算机(-12.55%)， 机械设备(-12.19%)，传媒(-12.12%)跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别 为 104/16/5,280。沪深两市，机构、主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-776、-760、242、1295 亿元，分别变动-642、-543、+231、+953 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为-0.36、91.23、120.64 与 68.57 点，基差年化收益率分 别为 0.06%、-15.98%、-31.12%与-25.22%，三年期历史分位数分别为 93%、2%、0%及 0%。由 于现货指数跌幅较大，而期货 ...

2025年04月08日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周一贵金属价格继续大幅波动，国内低开高走，沪银一度跌停；消息面，特朗普表示他并未考虑 暂时中止对多国的所谓"对等关税"计划，但暗示可能愿意进行一些谈判。经济数据方面，中国央行 3 月继 续增持黄金储备至 7370 万盎司，相比 2 月的 7361 万盎司，增加 9 万盎司，约 2.8 吨。美国 3 月非农就业人 口增长 22.8 万，高于预期的增加 14 万，前值从增加 15.1 万下修为增加 11.7 万；3 月失业率升至 4.2%，预 期 4.1%，前值 4.1%。库存数据方面，印度 2 月白银进口减至 250 吨左右；上期所白银库存减少 36 吨至 1150 吨，金交所白银库存上周增加 52 吨 1731 吨。伦敦 2 月库存减少 1056 吨至 22446 吨，主要流向美国。周一 随着价格大跌，白银点价盘涌现，库存去化。操作上，建议白银空单继续持有或者做多金银比。风险点：美 国经济大幅衰退 基本金属 招商评论 铝 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2505 合约收盘价较前一交易日-3.60%，收于 19685 元/ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - This week, major broad - based indices declined. The CSI 1000 index fell 1.04%, the CSI 2000 index dropped 1.09%, the STAR 50 index declined 1.11%, the CSI 500 index decreased 1.19%, the CSI All - Share index went down 1.21%, the SSE 50 index dropped 1.37%, and the ChiNext index fell 2.95%. The equity market as a whole oscillated downward, and the implementation of Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" led to a decline in overseas risk assets. There is downward pressure on domestic risk assets next week. Dividend - related assets are expected to be relatively resilient in the short - term [8]. - For equity strategies, a cautious and defensive approach is maintained. The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" is unfavorable for risk assets. Although the crowded trading risk in the TMT sector has been lifted, the current valuation is still high, and there is a significant risk of retracement in the short - term. There is also pressure on the liquidity premium of small - cap stocks to narrow. It is recommended to prevent retracement risks in small - cap and TMT sectors and track their valuation digestion process [8]. - For option strategies, a neutral attitude is held. Financial option strategies can be standard - allocated. In the face of event shocks, volatility is likely to remain high. Selling option strategies carry high risks, while buying option strategies and option arbitrage strategies have trading opportunities [9]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Equity Market Review - **Stock Market Review**: Broad - based indices declined this week, with reduced volatility and decreased market activity. Large - cap stocks saw a decline in trading volume, and 32.3% of industries had positive returns, with the public utilities sector leading [8]. - **Futures Market Review**: As of April 3, 2025, from the perspective of quarterly - contract hedging, the basis of IF widened, while the bases of IC and IM converged. The estimated impacts on the average returns of neutral products from each contract's hedging were 0.01%, - 0.01%, and - 0.08% respectively [8]. - **Option Market Review**: As of April 3, 2025, the implied volatility of each index increased this week, which is beneficial for the performance of buying option strategies and option arbitrage strategies [8]. Strategy Environment Monitoring - **Intraday Alpha Environment**: Overall, this week, the intraday liquidity and volatility of stocks decreased marginally, and there was a net outflow of funds, which is unfavorable for the accumulation of intraday Alpha [8]. - **Trading Alpha Environment**: The cross - sectional volatility decreased marginally, large - cap stocks outperformed, and the balance of margin trading decreased marginally. There is a need to prevent the risk of retracement due to cooling market sentiment [8]. - **Holding Alpha Environment**: The environment is unfavorable for the accumulation and stability of holding Alpha [8]. - **Index Futures Hedging Environment**: Currently, the basis fluctuation has decreased, but the annualized discount is still significant, which is unfavorable for hedging cost control [8]. Future Strategy研判 - **Stock Strategy**: A cautious and defensive strategy is maintained. The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" is unfavorable for risk assets. Although the crowded trading risk in the TMT sector has been lifted, the current high valuation still poses a significant risk of retracement in the short - term. There is also pressure on the liquidity premium of small - cap stocks to narrow. It is recommended to prevent retracement risks in small - cap and TMT sectors and track their valuation digestion process [8]. - **Option Strategy**: A neutral attitude is held. Financial option strategies can be standard - allocated. In the face of event shocks, volatility is likely to remain high. Selling option strategies carry high risks, while buying option strategies and option arbitrage strategies have trading opportunities [9].