金融研究 2025年11月14日 星期五 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：11 月 13 日，A 股四大股指重回强势，其中上证指数上涨 0.73%，报收 4029.5 点；深成 指上涨 1.78%，报收 13476.52 点；创业板指上涨 2.55%，报收 3201.75 点；科创 50 指数上涨 1.44%， 报收 1399.29 点。市场成交 20,657 亿元，较前日增加 1,009 亿元。行业板块方面，电力设备(+4.31%)， 有色金属(+4.01%)，综合(+3.3%)涨幅居前；公用事业(-0.27%)，通信(-0.21%)，石油石化(-0.12%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IC>IM>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 3,952/157/1,334。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 178、-53、-129、5 亿元，分别变动+405、+162、-208、-359 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 112.18、86.29、25.07 与 4.87 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-13.68%、-10.86%、-4.94%与-1.4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold market: Suggest buying at the lower support level for gold, and consider gradually reducing long positions for silver due to a potential short squeeze [2]. - Basic metals: For copper, maintain a short - term view of a slightly bullish oscillation; for electrolytic aluminum, be cautious of short - term corrections and maintain a long - term bullish view; for alumina, expect price oscillations and focus on active industry production cuts [3]. - Industrial silicon: The supply contraction is expected to be greater than the demand contraction, and the price is expected to range between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [4]. - Polysilicon: With the progress of the near - month storage platform falling short of expectations, suggest a wait - and - see approach [4]. - Tin: Pay attention to the adjustment risk as the price approaches the pressure level of 300,000 yuan [4]. - Black industry: For rebar, iron ore, and coking coal, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach and consider shorting relevant contracts [5][6]. - Agricultural products: For soybeans, focus on the fulfillment of the USDA report; for corn, expect short - term price oscillations; for palm oil, focus on production and biodiesel policies; for sugar, short in the futures market and sell call options; for cotton, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for eggs and pigs, expect price oscillations [7][8]. - Energy and chemical industry: For LLDPE and PP, suggest short - term oscillations and long - term short positions or month - spread reverse arbitrage; for PVC, suggest short positions; for PTA, take profit on long positions and short processing fees in the far - month; for rubber, expect short - term strength and medium - term oscillations; for glass, suggest a wait - and - see approach; for MEG, short at high levels; for crude oil, short at high levels if Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels per day; for styrene, expect short - term oscillations; for soda ash, suggest a wait - and - see approach [9][10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold Market - Market performance: Overnight precious metal prices oscillated at high levels, with London gold closing at $4145 per ounce [2]. - Fundamentals: Trump's chief economic advisor mentioned potential job losses due to the government shutdown; multiple Fed officials expressed different views on interest rates. There were changes in gold and silver inventories in various regions, and the holdings of major ETFs also changed [2]. - Trading strategy: Suggest buying gold at the lower support level and gradually reducing long positions for silver [2]. Basic Metals Copper - Market performance: Copper prices rose and then fell yesterday [3]. - Fundamentals: Multiple Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and domestic monetary and credit data were below expectations. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and there were spot discounts in East and South China [3]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a short - term view of a slightly bullish oscillation [3]. Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.78% compared to the previous trading day, and the LME price was $2906.5 per ton [3]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate decreased slightly [3]. - Trading strategy: Be cautious of short - term corrections and maintain a long - term bullish view [3]. Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.67% compared to the previous trading day [3]. - Fundamentals: Alumina plants had stable production, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3]. - Trading strategy: Expect price oscillations and focus on active industry production cuts [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: The main 01 contract opened lower and oscillated widely, closing at 9145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4]. - Fundamentals: The number of open furnaces decreased, and both social and warehouse inventories decreased slightly. The demand from polysilicon supported the market, while the organic silicon monomer industry planned to cut production by 30% [4]. - Trading strategy: Expect the price to range between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and suggest a wait - and - see approach [4]. Polysilicon - Market performance: The main 01 contract opened higher and oscillated narrowly, closing at 54195 yuan/ton, an increase of 735 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4]. - Fundamentals: The weekly output decreased slightly, and both industry and warehouse inventories increased. Downstream product prices were stable, and the production schedules of silicon wafers and battery cells decreased [4]. - Trading strategy: With the progress of the near - month storage platform falling short of expectations, suggest a wait - and - see approach [4]. Tin - Market performance: Tin prices rose and then fell yesterday [4]. - Fundamentals: Multiple Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and domestic monetary and credit data were below expectations. The supply of tin ore remained tight, and domestic warehouse receipts increased [4]. - Trading strategy: Pay attention to the adjustment risk as the price approaches the pressure level of 300,000 yuan [4]. Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The main 2601 contract of rebar closed at 3048 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: The apparent demand for building materials decreased, and the production also decreased significantly. The futures discount narrowed, and the valuation was neutral [5]. - Trading strategy: Mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach and consider shorting the 2601 contract [5]. Iron Ore - Market performance: The main 2601 contract of iron ore closed at 776.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: The port inventory increased, and the number of ships at berth also increased. The iron ore supply - demand situation weakened marginally, and the valuation was neutral [5][6]. - Trading strategy: Mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach and consider shorting the 2601 contract [6]. Coking Coal - Market performance: The main 2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1214 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [6]. - Fundamentals: The molten iron output increased, and the steel mill profits deteriorated. The third round of price increases for coking coal was implemented, and the futures valuation was high [6]. - Trading strategy: Mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach and consider shorting the 2601 contract [6]. Agricultural Products Soybeans - Market performance: CBOT soybeans were slightly bullish in the short term [7]. - Fundamentals: The US soybean harvest was nearing completion, and the market expected the USDA to lower the US soybean yield. South American soybeans were in the sowing stage with an expected increase in production. The demand for crushing and exports improved [7]. - Trading strategy: Focus on the fulfillment of the USDA report, and the domestic market is relatively bullish in the short term, with the medium - term trend depending on tariff policies and production in the producing areas [7]. Corn - Market performance: Corn futures prices oscillated narrowly, while spot prices continued to rise [7]. - Fundamentals: The national corn channel inventory was low, and there was a need for inventory building. The demand from deep - processing enterprises was strong, but the effective supply was insufficient in the short term. The new - crop corn was expected to increase in production, which would suppress the long - term price [7]. - Trading strategy: Expect short - term price oscillations and suggest a wait - and - see approach [7]. Palm Oil - Market performance: The Malaysian palm oil market rose slightly yesterday [7]. - Fundamentals: The production in Malaysia in October increased, and the export also increased. The near - term inventory continued to accumulate, while there was an expected seasonal production decline in the long term [7]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a reverse arbitrage strategy and focus on future production and biodiesel policies [7]. Sugar - Market performance: The 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5498 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18% [7]. - Fundamentals: Globally, the supply surplus expectation was increasing, and the raw sugar price reached a five - year low. In China, the market showed an internal - strong and external - weak pattern, but it would eventually follow the decline of raw sugar [7][8]. - Trading strategy: Short in the futures market and sell call options [8]. Cotton - Market performance: The US cotton futures prices fell overnight, and international crude oil prices oscillated narrowly [8]. - Fundamentals: The USDA's US cotton export data was released. The Brazilian cotton production was expected to increase. In China, the Xinjiang cotton purchase was almost completed, and the textile enterprise yarn inventory increased [8]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and focus on the range of 13400 - 13700 yuan/ton [8]. Eggs - Market performance: Egg futures and spot prices both fell [8]. - Fundamentals: The egg production inventory decreased, and the demand weakened after Double Eleven [8]. - Trading strategy: Expect price oscillations [8]. Pigs - Market performance: Pig futures prices rebounded, while spot prices fell [8]. - Fundamentals: The pig supply was still abundant, but the demand was expected to increase seasonally, and the price was expected to oscillate at a low level [8]. - Trading strategy: Expect price oscillations [8]. Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - Market performance: The main LLDPE contract oscillated slightly yesterday. The spot price in North China was 6790 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened [9]. - Fundamentals: The new device was put into operation, and the domestic supply pressure slowed down. The import window was closed, and the downstream demand weakened [9]. - Trading strategy: Expect short - term oscillations and suggest short positions or month - spread reverse arbitrage in the long term [9]. PVC - Market performance: The V01 contract closed at 4585 yuan, unchanged [9]. - Fundamentals: The PVC ex - factory price decreased, and the supply increased. The demand from downstream factories recovered less than expected, and the social inventory was high [9][10]. - Trading strategy: Suggest short positions due to weak supply and demand [10]. PTA - Market performance: The CFR China price of PX was $821 per ton, and the PTA spot price in East China was 4600 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply of PX was high, and the overall import volume increased. The PTA supply pressure was large in the long term, and the polyester factory load was high [10]. - Trading strategy: Take profit on long positions for PX and short processing fees in the far - month for PTA [10]. Rubber - Market performance: The RU2601 contract oscillated upward, closing at 15390 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.42% [10]. - Fundamentals: The prices of Thai rubber raw materials increased slightly, and the tire factory utilization rates and inventories changed [10]. - Trading strategy: Expect short - term strength and medium - term oscillations [10]. Glass - Market performance: The FG01 contract closed at 1055 yuan, an increase of 0.3% [10]. - Fundamentals: The glass inventory suppressed the price, and the downstream demand was weak. The production profit varied by process [10]. - Trading strategy: Suggest a wait - and - see approach as the supply - demand is weak and the downside space is limited [10]. PP - Market performance: The main PP contract oscillated slightly yesterday. The spot price in East China was 6430 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened [10]. - Fundamentals: The new device was put into operation, and the supply pressure increased. The downstream demand weakened [10]. - Trading strategy: Expect short - term oscillations and suggest short positions or month - spread reverse arbitrage in the long term [10][11]. MEG - Market performance: The spot price of MEG in East China was 3981 yuan/ton, and the basis was 68 yuan/ton [11]. - Fundamentals: The supply pressure was large in the long term, and the inventory was at a medium - low level. The polyester factory load was high, but the downstream demand weakened [11]. - Trading strategy: Short at high levels for the 01 contract [11]. Crude Oil - Market performance: The sc contract fell sharply and then rebounded slightly [11]. - Fundamentals: The supply risk of Russian oil increased, and the OPEC + planned to increase production moderately. The demand in Europe and the US was seasonally weak [11]. - Trading strategy: Short at high levels if Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels per day [11]. Styrene - Market performance: The main EB contract rebounded slightly yesterday. The spot price in East China was 6480 yuan/ton [11]. - Fundamentals: The pure benzene and styrene inventories were at normal - to - high levels. The short - term supply - demand improved, but the long - term situation was still weak [11]. - Trading strategy: Expect short - term oscillations, with the upside space limited by the import window [11]. Soda Ash - Market performance: The SA01 contract closed at 1240 yuan, an increase of 1.8% [11]. - Fundamentals: The soda ash supply was stable, and the upstream had a price - supporting attitude. The inventory was balanced, and the downstream demand from photovoltaic glass was stable [11][12]. - Trading strategy: Suggest a wait - and - see approach [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - As of November 7, 2025, the top three best - performing strategies in terms of cumulative returns this year are CSI 2000 Index Enhancement (+59.70%), CSI 1000 Index Enhancement (+45.60%), and CSI 500 Index Enhancement (+40.64%); the worst - performing are Option Put - biased (+1.53%), Option Arbitrage - biased (+4.15%), and ETF Arbitrage (+4.16%). The top three in terms of excess performance are CSI 2000 Index Enhancement (+26.10%), CSI 1000 Index Enhancement (+19.31%), and Quantitative Stock Selection (+13.71%); the worst are CSI 300 Index Enhancement (+6.12%), CSI A500 Index Enhancement (+7.06%), and CSI 500 Index Enhancement (+12.94%) [6] - The equity prices of major Sino - US indices have reached the 90% quantile levels of the past five or even ten years, and the on - site trading enthusiasm for Sino - US equity assets still exists. A - share investors are optimistic about the prospects of China's Science and Technology Innovation Board. China maintains a low - interest - rate environment, while the US is in a relatively high - interest - rate environment. The overall core strategy β environment is unfavorable for pure long - only stock strategies but favorable for CTA trend strategies, arbitrage strategies, and hedging strategies [6] - It is recommended to gradually increase the allocation of CTA, with trend strategies as the main focus and cross - sectional and arbitrage strategies as supplements. The overall attitude towards long - only stock strategies is neutral to cautious, while the attitude towards stock hedging strategies (neutral strategies) is neutral to optimistic [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Strategy β Environment Tracking - **Sino - US Equity Assets**: Most Sino - US equity assets have reached the double 90% quantile levels. In terms of structural opportunities, it is recommended to overweight CSI 300, A500, and Hang Seng Tech and underweight CSI 500. The trading enthusiasm in the on - site market remains high, and A - share investors are optimistic about the prospects of China's Science and Technology Innovation Board [8][9][20] - **Sino - US Bond Assets**: China maintains a low - interest - rate environment, while the US is in a high - interest - rate environment. The trading attribute of China's bond market interest rate is stronger than the allocation attribute this year, and the US bond real interest rate remains high and is on a downward trend [21][29] - **Commodity Assets**: Except for precious metals and non - ferrous metals, commodities show obvious low - valuation characteristics. The market's attention to commodity assets remains undiminished [33][37] - **Sino - US Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate has been in an appreciation range this year [39] 3.2 Private Equity Review - **Sub - strategy Monthly Performance Comparison**: As of November 7, 2025, the performance of different sub - strategies varies greatly. For example, in terms of cumulative returns this year, CSI 2000 Index Enhancement performs well, while Option Put - biased performs poorly [45] - **Major Index Monthly Performance Comparison**: As of November 7, 2025, the best - performing indices are the Micro - cap Index (+76.79%), ChiNext Index (+45.50%), and Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index (+38.99%); the worst - performing are CSI Dividend (+3.74%), CSI 300 (+17.53%), and Shanghai Composite Index (+17.57%) [48] 3.3 CTA Strategy Environment Tracking - **Commodity Futures Market**: Most commodity sector index net values and volatilities have declined. As of November 7, 2025, the average trading volume of commodity futures is 1.95 trillion yuan (a marginal decrease of 0.29 trillion yuan), the average open interest is 2.41 trillion yuan, and the average trading - to - open - interest ratio is 0.81, which is at a normal level [50][55] - **Stock Index Futures Market**: Most stock index futures indices have risen, and volatilities have generally declined. As of November 7, 2025, the average trading volume of stock index futures is 0.71 trillion yuan (a marginal decrease of 0.05 trillion yuan), the average open interest is 1.34 trillion yuan, and the average trading - to - open - interest ratio is 0.53, which is at a normal level [57][61] - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The net values of treasury bond futures indices have generally declined, and most volatilities have decreased. As of November 7, 2025, the average trading volume of treasury bond futures is 0.32 trillion yuan (a marginal decrease of 0.09 trillion yuan), the average open interest is 0.88 trillion yuan, and the average trading - to - open - interest ratio is 0.37, which is at a relatively low level [62][66] - **Short - and Medium - Term Cycle Strategy Market Environment**: Intra - day liquidity remains at a high level, and volatility has slightly declined [68] - **Long - and Medium - Term Cycle Strategy Market Environment**: The smoothness of trends has continued to decline, and volatility has continued to increase [70] 3.4 Stock Strategy Environment Tracking - **Major Broad - based Index Review**: Most broad - based indices have risen this week, and volatilities have generally declined. The short - term market activity is at a medium - to - high level and has increased marginally [74][77] - **Equity Industry Index Review**: This week, 61.3% of industries have achieved positive returns, and the Power Equipment sector leads the way. The top three industries in terms of weekly returns are Power Equipment (4.98%), Coal (4.52%), and Petroleum and Petrochemicals (4.47%); the bottom three are Medicine and Biology (- 2.40%), Computer (- 2.54%), and Beauty Care (- 3.10%) [80] - **Trading Congestion**: As of November 7, 2025, the trading heat of the TMT sector is 0.29 (a marginal decrease of 10.1%), in the lower range; the trading heat of sectors such as micro - caps is 0.12 (a marginal increase of 3.2%), in the normal range; the total market trading volume is 1.96 trillion yuan (a marginal decrease of 2.8%), in the extremely high range [84] - **Neutral and Index Enhancement Strategy Intra - day Alpha Environment Monitoring**: It is generally unfavorable for intra - day Alpha accumulation due to the net outflow of funds from the stock market this week [85][88] - **Neutral and Index Enhancement Strategy Trading - type Alpha Environment Monitoring**: It is generally favorable for trading - type Alpha accumulation as trading volume, margin trading balance, etc. are at relatively high levels [90][95] - **Neutral and Index Enhancement Strategy Holding - type Alpha Significance Environment Monitoring**: It is slightly unfavorable for Alpha accumulation as the stock style is the large - cap style and the proportion of stocks outperforming the market index is still relatively low [96][101] - **Stock Index Futures Market Review**: The basis of IF, IC, and IM has widened. The estimated impacts on the average returns of neutral products through different contract hedging methods vary [102][108] - **Option Market Review**: The implied volatility has generally declined this week, which is expected to be unfavorable for option buying and arbitrage strategies. The option sentiment dimension shows that the sentiment towards CSI 1000, CSI 300, and CSI 500 is generally bearish [110][114] - **Private Equity Index Enhancement Component Stock Decomposition**: The exposure to micro - caps has dropped to a safe level, and the quantitative selection shows a relatively high exposure to micro - caps [115]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium - long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties when prices are low as using stock index for long - position substitution has certain excess returns [3] - In the short - term, the outlook for bond futures is bullish, and the implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds at 2.2 has sufficient cost - effectiveness. In the medium - long term, with the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to conduct hedging operations on T and TL contracts when prices are high [4] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On November 12, the four major A - share stock indexes pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07% to 4000.14 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.36% to 13240.62 points, the ChiNext Index declined 0.39% to 3122.03 points, and the STAR 50 Index decreased 0.58% to 1379.45 points. Market trading volume was 1964.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 49.1 billion yuan from the previous day. Among industry sectors, household appliances (+1.22%), comprehensive (+1.05%), and textile and apparel (+0.87%) led the gains, while power equipment (-2.1%), machinery and equipment (-1.23%), and computer (-1.04%) led the losses. In terms of market strength, IH>IF>IC>IM, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1756/126/3561 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net capital inflows of - 22.8 billion, - 21.4 billion, 7.9 billion, and 36.3 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 3 billion, - 47 billion, - 1 billion, and +50 billion yuan respectively [2] 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 116.58, 88.05, 17.91, and 1.5 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 13.9%, - 10.85%, - 3.44%, and - 0.44% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 20%, 17%, 27%, and 41% respectively [3] 3.3 Bond Futures - On November 12, interest - rate bonds showed a weak upward trend. Among active contracts, TS rose 0.01%, TF rose 0.03%, T rose 0.02%, and TL rose 0.09% [3] - For the current active 2512 contracts, the CTD bond of the 2 - year Treasury bond futures was 250012.IB, with a yield change of - 0.75bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.004, and an IRR of 1.54%; the CTD bond of the 5 - year Treasury bond futures was 250003.IB, with a yield change of - 0.25bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.034, and an IRR of 1.85%; the CTD bond of the 10 - year Treasury bond futures was 220017.IB, with a yield change of - 0.75bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.013, and an IRR of 1.6%; the CTD bond of the 30 - year Treasury bond futures was 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 0.5bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.013, and an IRR of 1.39% [4] - In terms of the money supply, the central bank injected 195.5 billion yuan and withdrew 65.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 130 billion yuan [4] 3.4 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that at the beginning of November, the import and export business climate was better than the same period, while the infrastructure business climate was worse than the same period [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides market analysis and trading strategies for various commodity futures, including base metals, precious metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies vary by commodity, with some markets expected to be volatile and others to trend up or down based on supply - demand dynamics, geopolitical factors, and policy changes. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Base Metals - **Copper**: Market performance showed prices oscillating strongly. Fundamentals include a pending US House vote on a government - shutdown bill and a Fed official's retirement, with a continued tight supply of copper ore. The trading strategy is to view it with an oscillating - upward mindset in the short term [3]. - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract rose 0.99% from the previous day. Supply is increasing as plants operate at high loads, while demand (weekly aluminum product start - up rate) is slightly decreasing. With a falling dollar index and overseas supply disruptions, prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and inventory changes should be monitored [3]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the main contract rose 0.18% from the previous day. Supply is stable, and demand comes from high - load electrolytic aluminum plants. The market is in an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with attention on industry production cuts [3]. - **Zinc**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc 2511 contract rose 0.09% from the previous day. Domestic zinc concentrate supply is tight, while overseas supply is increasing. Consumption is in the off - season, but LME inventory decline provides support. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [3][5]. - **Lead**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead 2511 contract rose 1.18% from the previous day. Supply is stable, and demand from battery enterprises is slightly improving. Domestic inventory is low. The recommended strategy is range - bound operation [3][5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main 01 contract rose 15 yuan/ton. Supply is shrinking as furnace - opening numbers decrease in the southwest, and demand is supported by polysilicon. The price is expected to oscillate between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and it's advisable to buy on dips [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2601 contract rose 0.05%. Supply is expected to be tight in November, with demand from materials like lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increasing. It's recommended to buy on dips cautiously and avoid chasing highs, or consider selling put options [5]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main 01 contract rose 1530 yuan/ton. Supply is decreasing, and downstream product prices are stable. November's production is expected to drop to about 120,000 tons. With the slow progress of the storage platform, it's recommended to wait and see [5][6]. - **Tin**: Prices oscillated strongly. The US House vote and a Fed official's retirement are factors, and tin ore supply is tight. The short - term strategy is to view it with an oscillating - upward mindset and watch the 300,000 - yuan resistance level [3][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Overnight prices rose significantly, with domestic silver hitting a record high and driving up gold prices. Fed personnel changes, inventory changes, and domestic gold ETF inflows are the main factors. It's recommended to buy gold on dips and gradually reduce silver long positions [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2601 contract closed at 3030 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous night. Building material demand and production are both decreasing. The recommended strategy is to wait and see and consider shorting the 2601 contract [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2601 contract closed at 768 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan/ton from the previous night. Supply and demand are deteriorating marginally, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2601 contract closed at 1208.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous night. Iron - water production is decreasing, and the market is in a long - term premium structure. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose. The US soybean harvest is nearly over, and South American production is expected to increase. Demand from crushing and exports is improving. It's advisable to focus on the USDA report on Friday, and the domestic market is relatively strong in the short - term [8]. - **Corn**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices rose. Corn inventory is low, and demand from deep - processing is strong. New - crop production is expected to increase, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with a wait - and - see strategy recommended [8]. - **Fats and Oils**: The Malaysian palm oil market fell. Supply in Malaysia is increasing, and demand is also rising. It's expected to continue inventory accumulation in the near - term and enter a seasonal production - reduction period later. The P structure is suitable for reverse spreads [8]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5473 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The global sugar supply is expected to be excessive, and the domestic market may follow the downward trend after a short - term rebound. It's recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [8]. - **Cotton**: Overnight US cotton prices fell. Indian cotton production decreased, and inventory increased. Domestic cotton prices oscillated downwards. It's recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - bound strategy [8]. - **Eggs**: Futures and spot prices both fell. Supply pressure is decreasing as production inventory drops, but demand is weakening after Double Eleven. Egg prices are expected to be weak, and futures prices are expected to oscillate in a range [9]. - **Hogs**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices fell. Supply is abundant, and demand is expected to increase seasonally. Pig prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and futures prices are expected to oscillate in a range [9]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract oscillated slightly. Supply pressure is rising but at a slower pace due to new device production and import window closure. Demand is weakening as the agricultural film season ends. It's expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and become more balanced in the long - term, and it's advisable to short at high prices or do reverse spreads [10]. - **PVC**: The V01 contract closed at 4583, down 0.2%. Supply is increasing, demand is slightly improving, and inventory is high. It's recommended to short or do reverse spreads [10]. - **PTA**: PX supply is high, and PTA supply pressure is large in the long - term. Polyester factory load is high, and PTA is slightly de - stocking. It's recommended to take profit on long positions and short processing fees on far - month contracts [10][11]. - **Rubber**: The RU2601 contract rose 0.56%. Raw material prices are supportive, and inventory is increasing. It's recommended to maintain an oscillating trading strategy and watch for raw material supply in the main production areas [11]. - **Glass**: The FG01 contract closed at 1049, down 1.2%. Supply is excessive, inventory is high, and demand is weak. It's recommended to wait and see [11]. - **PP**: The main contract oscillated slightly. Supply is increasing as new devices are put into operation, and demand is weakening as the peak season ends. It's expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and become more balanced in the long - term, and it's advisable to short at high prices or do reverse spreads [11]. - **MEG**: The East China spot price is 3981 yuan/ton, and inventory is accumulating. It's recommended to short at high prices on the 01 contract [11]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices fell sharply due to the OPEC monthly report. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is seasonally weak. If Russian oil production decline is less than 500,000 barrels per day, it's advisable to short at high prices [11][12]. - **Styrene**: The EB main contract oscillated slightly. Supply is expected to improve marginally in the short - term but weaken in the long - term as new devices are put into operation. Demand is weakening. It's recommended to short at high prices or do reverse spreads in the long - term [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa01 contract closed at 1215, down 0.9%. Supply is stable, inventory is balanced, and demand from photovoltaic glass is normal. It's recommended to wait and see [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies for various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. The overall market situation is complex, with different commodities showing different trends and risks [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Overnight prices rose slightly, with London gold at $4,125.67/oz. ADP data showed a decline in US private - sector jobs, and there were various inventory changes. Suggest buying at the lower support [2]. - **Silver**: Suggest reducing long positions [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Prices were oscillating strongly. The market priced in the US government reopening, and weak ADP data boosted the Fed's rate - cut expectation. Supply was tight, and short - term demand was weak. Treat it with an oscillating mindset in the short term [3]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract price decreased by 0.30%. Supply increased slightly, and demand decreased. In the traditional consumption off - season, prices are expected to oscillate strongly due to overseas supply concerns [3]. - **Alumina**: The main contract price decreased by 0.46%. Supply was stable, and demand was high. The market is in an oversupply situation, and the rebound space is limited [3]. - **Zinc**: The main contract price decreased by 0.11%. Supply was tight domestically but increased overseas. Consumption was in the off - season. Suggest selling short at high prices [4]. - **Lead**: The main contract price decreased by 0.06%. Supply was stable, and demand improved slightly. Suggest interval operation [4]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract price decreased by 1.18%. Supply was supported by polysilicon, and demand was stable. The price is expected to oscillate between 8,600 - 9,400 yuan/ton, and consider buying at low prices [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract price decreased by 0.8%. Supply increased slightly, and demand increased significantly. It is expected to go into de - stocking in November. Suggest buying at low prices cautiously and consider selling put options [4]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main contract price decreased by 3.33%. Supply decreased, and demand was weak. The November storage platform progress is uncertain. Suggest waiting and seeing [5]. - **Tin**: Prices were oscillating strongly. The market priced in the US government reopening, and ADP data boosted the Fed's rate - cut expectation. Supply decreased, and demand was stable. Treat it with an oscillating mindset in the short term [5]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main contract price increased by 2 yuan/ton. Inventory decreased, and demand improved marginally. Supply decreased significantly. Suggest waiting and seeing, with a reference range of 2,990 - 3,040 yuan/ton [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price increased by 10 yuan/ton. Supply decreased, and demand was stable. Suggest waiting and seeing, with a reference range of 740 - 770 yuan/ton [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The main contract price decreased by 37.5 yuan/ton. Supply was stable, and demand was weak. Suggest waiting and seeing, with a reference range of 1,230 - 1,280 yuan/ton [7]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans fell slightly. Supply was stable, and demand improved. The global inventory is expected to remain high. US soybeans are strong, and domestic ones are relatively strong. Short - term focus on the USDA report, and medium - term depends on tariff policies and production [7]. - **Corn**: Futures prices continued to rise. Inventory was low, and demand was strong. New production is expected to increase, and costs will decrease. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Suggest waiting and seeing [7]. - **Sugar**: The 01 contract price decreased by 0.04%. Globally, supply is expected to be in surplus, and domestically, the market rebounded due to news. Suggest shorting in the futures market and selling call options [7]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and domestic prices oscillated downwards. Supply increased, and demand was stable. Suggest waiting and seeing, with an interval strategy of 13,400 - 13,700 yuan/ton [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian market rebounded slightly. Supply increased, and demand increased. Near - term inventory is accumulating, and long - term production is expected to decrease seasonally. Suggest a reverse spread strategy and focus on production and policies [8]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices were weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. Supply decreased, and demand increased seasonally. After Double Eleven, prices are expected to oscillate in an interval [8]. - **Hogs**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly. Supply was abundant, and demand was expected to increase seasonally. Prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [8]. - **Apples**: The main contract price increased by 0.76%. Supply was affected by quality and timing, and demand was optimistic. Suggest waiting and seeing [8]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Prices oscillated slightly. Supply pressure increased but at a slower pace, and demand decreased. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, suggest shorting at high prices or reverse - spreading [9]. - **PTA**: PX supply was high, and PTA supply pressure was large. PX was in balance, and PTA was slightly de - stocking. Suggest taking profit on long positions and shorting processing fees in the long term [10]. - **Rubber**: The main contract price increased by 0.33%. Raw material prices were stable, and inventory increased. Suggest an oscillating operation [10]. - **PP**: Prices oscillated slightly. Supply increased, and demand decreased. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, suggest shorting at high prices or reverse - spreading [10]. - **MEG**: Supply pressure was large, and inventory was at a medium - low level. Demand entered the off - season. Suggest shorting at high prices [10]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices rose. Supply faced risks from Russian oil and OPEC+ production, and demand was seasonally weak. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and short at high prices if Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels/day [11]. - **Styrene**: Prices fell slightly. Supply and demand contradictions were large. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, suggest shorting at high prices or reverse - spreading [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each sector, taking into account factors such as supply and demand, inventory levels, geopolitical risks, and policy changes [2][3][4]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Overnight, precious metal prices rose significantly, with the London gold price up 2.88% to $4,115 per ounce. The US Senate passed a temporary funding bill, the Chinese central bank increased its gold holdings for the 12th consecutive month, and US inflation showed signs of slowing. Domestic gold ETFs saw inflows, and some inventories remained stable while others changed slightly. The recommended strategy is to buy on support for gold and reduce long positions for silver [2]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold in terms of inventory changes, with some inventories increasing and others decreasing. The recommended strategy is to reduce long positions [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price oscillated with a slight upward trend. The US government's potential end of the shutdown boosted market sentiment, while the supply of copper ore remained tight. Domestic weekly inventories decreased, and a short - term bullish and oscillatory approach is recommended [3]. - **Zinc**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc 2511 contract decreased slightly. Supply of domestic zinc concentrate tightened, but overseas mine output increased. Consumption was in the off - season, but LME inventory decline and export opportunities provided some support. The recommended strategy is to sell on rallies [3]. - **Lead**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead 2511 contract increased slightly. Supply from primary and recycled lead production was stable, and the battery enterprise's operating rate improved slightly. Domestic inventory was at a relatively low level for the year. A range - bound trading strategy is recommended [3][4]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The market showed a slow upward trend. The supply side saw a decrease in furnace openings in the southwest region, and both social and warehouse inventories decreased slightly. Demand was supported by polysilicon and organic silicon production. The price is expected to range between 8,600 - 9,400 yuan/ton, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The market opened low and closed high. Supply decreased slightly, and inventories increased. Downstream product prices were stable, and the photovoltaic installation growth in the fourth quarter is expected to face pressure. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [4]. - **Tin**: The tin price oscillated with a slight upward trend. Market sentiment improved as the US government's shutdown neared an end, supply was temporarily tight, and demand was weak. A short - term bullish and oscillatory approach is recommended [4]. Black Industries - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price increased slightly. Building material inventories decreased, and the supply - demand situation was weak with structural differentiation. Steel mills were in a loss - making situation, and production may continue to decline. A wait - and - see approach is recommended, and an attempt to long the 01 contract rebar - iron ore ratio can be made [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures price remained unchanged. Arrivals and shipments decreased, and port inventories increased. The supply - demand situation deteriorated marginally, and the price is expected to range between 740 - 770 yuan/ton. A wait - and - see approach is recommended, and an attempt to long the 01 contract rebar - iron ore ratio can be made [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price increased slightly. Iron water production decreased, and steel mill profits worsened. The third round of price increases was implemented, and the fourth was being considered. Inventories were at a low level, and the futures price was overvalued. A wait - and - see approach is recommended, and the price is expected to range between 1,230 - 1,280 yuan/ton [6]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean price rose overnight. Supply from the US decreased slightly, and South America is expected to increase production. Demand from crushing and exports improved. The US soybean market is bullish in the short - term, while the domestic market is relatively strong due to low valuation. The medium - term trend depends on tariff policies and production in the producing areas [7]. - **Corn**: Corn futures and spot prices rose. Channel inventories were low, and there was a need for restocking. New - crop production is expected to increase, and costs have decreased. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [7]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract price increased. Internationally, the supply surplus is expected to widen due to good growth in Indian sugarcane. Domestically, policy rumors led to a price rebound, but it is expected to follow the international market downwards. The recommended strategy is to short in the futures market and sell call options [7][8]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton futures price rebounded, and the international crude oil price rose. In the US, the grading inspection progress is known, and Australian exports decreased. In China, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated narrowly. A wait - and - see approach is recommended, with a trading range of 13,400 - 13,800 yuan/ton [8]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil market changed little. The estimated production in October increased, and exports also rose. There is a short - term inventory build - up and a long - term seasonal production decline expectation. A reverse calendar spread strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to production and biodiesel policies [8]. - **Eggs**: Egg futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices were stable. The laying hen inventory decreased, and demand increased seasonally. After the Double - Eleven promotion, the futures price is expected to oscillate downwards [8]. - **Hogs**: Hog futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices showed a north - south divergence. Supply was abundant, and demand is expected to increase seasonally. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [8]. - **Apples**: The apple futures price increased. In some production areas, acquisition prices rose, and the market sentiment was optimistic. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [8]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE futures price oscillated slightly. Supply pressure eased as new devices were put into operation and imports decreased. Demand weakened after the peak season. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, a short - selling strategy or reverse calendar spread can be considered [10]. - **PVC**: The PVC futures price decreased. Supply increased with new device launches, and demand was weak due to factors such as real - estate conditions and anti - dumping measures. A short - selling strategy is recommended [10]. - **PTA**: The PX supply was high, and PTA had a supply - demand situation with a slight inventory decrease. The recommended strategy is to take profit on long positions in PX and short the processing margin in PTA in the long - term [10]. - **Rubber**: The rubber futures price increased slightly. Raw material prices were stable, and inventories in Qingdao continued to increase but at a slower pace. A range - bound trading strategy is recommended [10]. - **Glass**: The glass futures price decreased. Production lines were shut down, and inventory decreased as downstream restocked. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [10][11]. - **PP**: The PP futures price oscillated slightly. Supply increased with new device launches, and demand weakened after the peak season. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, a short - selling strategy or reverse calendar spread can be considered [11]. - **MEG**: The MEG supply pressure was high, and inventory was expected to increase. The recommended strategy is to short on rallies for the 01 contract [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The oil price oscillated. Supply faced risks due to sanctions on Russia and potential actions against Venezuela, while demand was seasonally weak. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and if the Russian oil supply reduction is less than 500,000 barrels per day, short - selling on rallies can be considered [11]. - **Styrene**: The styrene futures price oscillated slightly. Supply and demand were weak, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies or use a reverse calendar spread in the long - term [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures price increased. Supply was affected by maintenance, and inventory decreased slightly. The supply - demand was balanced, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [12].

Report Overview - Report Date: November 11, 2025 [doc id='1'] - Report Company: China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. [doc id='1'] 1. Market Performance Stock Index Futures and Spot Market - On November 10, the four major A-share stock indexes showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.53% to close at 4,018.6 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.18% to close at 13,427.61 points; the ChiNext Index fell 0.92% to close at 3,178.83 points; the STAR 50 Index fell 0.57% to close at 1,407.56 points. Market turnover was 2.1944 trillion yuan, an increase of 174.2 billion yuan from the previous day [doc id='2']. - In terms of industry sectors, beauty care (+3.6%), food and beverage (+3.22%), and commercial and retail (+2.69%) led the gains; power equipment (-1.09%), machinery and equipment (-0.71%), and electronics (-0.51%) led the losses [doc id='2']. - In terms of market strength, IH > IF > IM > IC. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 3,373/118/1,952 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of -12.1 billion, -13.3 billion, 400 million, and 25.1 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -100 million, +4.4 billion, -4.2 billion, and -100 million yuan respectively [doc id='2']. - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 142.25, 108, 23.05, and -0.14 points respectively. The annualized basis yields were -15.67%, -12.26%, -4.09%, and 0.04% respectively, and the three - year historical quantiles were 13%, 12%, 23%, and 45% respectively [doc id='2']. Bond Futures Market - On November 10, interest - rate bonds rose slightly. Among the active contracts, TS remained flat, TF rose 0.02%, T rose 0.01%, and TL rose 0.22% [doc id='3']. - For the current active 2512 contracts: - The CTD bond of the 2 - year Treasury bond futures was 250012.IB, with a yield change of +0bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.011, and an IRR of 1.6% [doc id='3']. - The CTD bond of the 5 - year Treasury bond futures was 250003.IB, with a yield change of -0.25bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.025, and an IRR of 1.75% [doc id='3']. - The CTD bond of the 10 - year Treasury bond futures was 250018.IB, with a yield change of -0.75bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.006, and an IRR of 1.56% [doc id='3']. - The CTD bond of the 30 - year Treasury bond futures was 210005.IB, with a yield change of -1bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.031, and an IRR of 1.75% [doc id='3']. - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 119.9 billion yuan and withdrew 78.3 billion yuan through open - market operations, resulting in a net injection of 41.6 billion yuan [doc id='3']. 2. Trading Strategies Stock Index Futures - In the medium - to - long term, the report maintains a bullish view on the economy. Currently, using stock index futures as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [doc id='3']. Bond Futures - In the short term, it is bullish. The implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds (2.2) has sufficient cost - effectiveness. In the medium - to - long term, with an upward risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [doc id='3']. 3. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that at the beginning of November, the import and export business climate was better than the same period, while the infrastructure business climate was worse than the same period [doc id='10']. 4. Tables and Figures Tables - Table 1 shows the performance of stock index futures and spot markets, including details such as code, name, percentage change, current price, trading volume, and basis [doc id='6']. - Table 2 shows the performance of Treasury bond futures and spot markets, including details such as code, name, percentage change, current price, trading volume, and net basis [doc id='7']. - Table 3 shows the changes in the short - term money market interest rates, including SHIBOR overnight rates [doc id='10']. Figures - Figure 1 shows the term structure of Treasury bond spot prices [doc id='8']. - Figure 2 shows the tracking of domestic meso - level data [doc id='11'].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On November 7, the four major A-share stock indices pulled back, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.25% to 3997.56 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.36% to 13404.06 points, the ChiNext Index down 0.51% to 3208.21 points, and the STAR 50 Index down 1.47% to 1415.69 points. Market turnover was 20,202 billion yuan, a decrease of 557 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, basic chemicals (+2.39%), comprehensive (+1.45%), and petroleum and petrochemicals (+1.38%) led the gains; computers (-1.83%), electronics (-1.34%), and household appliances (-1.17%) led the losses [2]. - In the stock index futures market, the basis of the next-month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 129.88, 97.71, 19.39, and 0.15 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of -13.89%, -10.75%, -3.34%, and -0.04% respectively, and three-year historical quantiles of 19%, 16%, 28%, and 45% respectively [3]. - In the bond market, on November 7, interest rate bonds declined slightly. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0.02%, TF fell 0.05%, T fell 0.09%, and TL fell 0.15% [3]. 2. Trading Strategies - **Stock Index Futures**: In the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index futures as a long - term substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: In the short term, it is bullish. The implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds at 2.2 has sufficient cost - effectiveness; in the medium to long term, with the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [4]. 3. Specific Market Data Stock Index Futures and Spot Markets - The report provides detailed performance data of various stock index futures contracts (such as IC2511, IF2511, etc.), including price, trading volume, open interest, basis, and annualized basis yield [6]. Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the performance data of various treasury bond futures contracts (such as TS2512, TF2512, etc.), including price, trading volume, open interest, net basis, and CTD bond implied interest rate [7]. Short - term Fund Interest Rate Market - The current price of SHIBOR overnight is 1.327, compared with 1.313 yesterday, 1.321 a week ago, and 1.379 a month ago [10]. 4. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that at the beginning of November, the import and export sentiment was better than the same period, while the infrastructure sentiment was worse than the same period [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It presents market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies for each sector [2][3][5]. - Different commodities have different market conditions, with some facing supply - demand imbalances, price fluctuations, and varying degrees of risk. The trading strategies range from buying at support levels, waiting for buying opportunities, to short - selling or taking a wait - and - see approach [2][3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market performance showed prices rising and then falling on Friday, with London gold reaching $4000/oz. Fundamentals included changes in key mineral lists, employment data, and inventory changes. The trading strategy is to buy at the lower support level [2]. - **Silver**: Market performance was part of the precious metals' overall movement. Fundamentals involved inventory changes. The trading strategy is to reduce long positions [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Market performance was a Friday price oscillation. Fundamentals had supply tightness and macro - economic factors. The trading strategy is to wait for buying opportunities due to unclear short - term macro - drivers and poor current demand [3]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Market performance had the Friday closing price down 0.18%. Fundamentals included high - load production on the supply side and a slight drop in demand. The price is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [3]. - **Alumina**: Market performance had the Friday closing price down 0.14%. Fundamentals showed a stable supply and high - load demand from electrolytic aluminum plants. The price is expected to be oscillating and slightly weaker [3]. - **Metallic Silicon**: Market performance had the 01 contract up 1.71%. Fundamentals involved a decrease in furnace - opening numbers and inventory reduction. The price is expected to be in the range of 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and the strategy is to wait and see [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market performance had the LC2601 up 2.24%. Fundamentals included supply and demand changes. The trading strategy is to buy on dips cautiously and consider selling put options [4]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: Market performance had the 01 contract up 1.71%. Fundamentals involved a decline in production and inventory accumulation. The trading strategy is to buy on dips with a light position [4]. - **Tin**: Market performance was price oscillation. Fundamentals included tight supply and inventory accumulation. The trading strategy is to take an oscillating view [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: Market performance had the 2601 contract down 10 yuan/ton. Fundamentals showed weak supply - demand and structural differentiation. The trading strategy is to wait and see and try to long the 01 contract rebar - to - iron ore ratio [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Market performance had the 2601 contract down 5 yuan/ton. Fundamentals showed a marginal deterioration in supply - demand. The trading strategy is to short the 2601 contract and long the 01 contract rebar - to - iron ore ratio [5]. - **Coking Coal**: Market performance had the 2601 contract down 32 yuan/ton. Fundamentals included a decline in iron - water production and inventory changes. The trading strategy is to hold short positions [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Market performance had CBOT soybeans rising on Friday. Fundamentals included supply and demand changes. The trading strategy is that US soybeans will oscillate, and the domestic market is relatively strong in the short - term [6]. - **Corn**: Market performance was price oscillation. Fundamentals involved inventory and production expectations. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [6]. - **Sugar**: Market performance had ICE raw sugar down 2.01% and Zhengzhou sugar down 0.47%. Fundamentals included global supply surplus and domestic policy impacts. The trading strategy is to short in the futures market and sell call options [7]. - **Cotton**: Market performance had US cotton prices falling. Fundamentals included international and domestic market conditions. The trading strategy is to wait and see within the 13400 - 13800 yuan/ton range [7]. - **Palm Oil**: Market performance had the Malaysian market falling. Fundamentals included supply and demand changes. The trading strategy is that the P contract is weak, and the structure is suitable for reverse spreads [7]. - **Eggs**: Market performance was price oscillation. Fundamentals involved supply and demand changes. The price is expected to fall after the Double Eleven promotion [7]. - **Hogs**: Market performance was price oscillation. Fundamentals included supply and demand changes. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [7]. - **Apples**: Market performance had the main contract down 2.14%. Fundamentals included production and inventory factors. The trading strategy is to wait and see [7][8]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Market performance was minor oscillation. Fundamentals involved supply and demand changes. The short - term price is expected to be oscillating and slightly weaker, and long - term, it is advisable to short at high prices [8]. - **PVC**: Market performance had the V01 down 0.3%. Fundamentals included supply increase and demand problems. The trading strategy is to short [8]. - **PTA**: Market performance involved price changes. Fundamentals included supply and demand changes. The trading strategy is to take profit on long positions and short the processing margin in the far - month contracts [8]. - **Rubber**: Market performance had the RU2601 up 0.3%. Fundamentals included raw material prices and tire production. The trading strategy is to trade in a range - bound manner [9]. - **Glass**: Market performance had the FG01 down 1%. Fundamentals included production line shutdowns and inventory changes. The trading strategy is to close out previous reverse spreads [9]. - **PP**: Market performance was minor oscillation. Fundamentals involved supply and demand changes. The short - term price is expected to be oscillating and slightly weaker, and long - term, it is advisable to short at high prices [9]. - **MEG**: Market performance involved price and basis changes. Fundamentals included supply and demand changes. The trading strategy is to short at high prices for the 01 contract [9]. - **Crude Oil**: Market performance was price decline. Fundamentals included supply and demand changes. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and it can be shorted at high prices if Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels per day [10]. - **Styrene**: Market performance was minor oscillation. Fundamentals included supply and demand changes. The short - term price is expected to be oscillating and slightly weaker, and long - term, it is advisable to short at high prices [10]. - **Soda Ash**: Market performance had the sa01 up 0.3%. Fundamentals included supply - demand balance. The trading strategy is to wait and see [10].