金融研究 2025年12月22日 星期一 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：12 月 19 日，A 股四大股指反弹，其中上证指数上涨 0.36%，报收 3890.45 点；深成指 上涨 0.66%，报收 13140.21 点；创业板指上涨 0.49%，报收 3122.24 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.2%， 报收 1308.59 点。市场成交 17,487 亿元，较前日增加 719 亿元。行业板块方面，商贸零售(+3.66%)， 综合(+2.22%)，轻工制造(+2.17%)涨幅居前；银行(-0.44%)，电子(-0.29%)，煤炭(-0.29%)跌幅居前。 从市场强弱看，IC>IM>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,476/79/901。沪深两市，机构、主力、大户、 散户全天资金分别净流入 55、-100、-123、167 亿元，分别变动+168、+79、-124、-123 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 44.21、26.95、16.18 与-2.46 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-7.94%、-4.95%、-4.66%与 1.08%，三年期历史分位数分 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each sector, suggesting different investment approaches based on the specific market conditions of each commodity [1][2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Gold - Market performance: International gold prices oscillated at high levels on Friday, and international silver prices reached $67 [1] - Fundamental analysis: New York Fed President Williams said there is no urgency for further rate cuts, and the November CPI data is somewhat distorted. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. The US intercepted a third oil tanker near Venezuela, and the French budget negotiation broke down. The Fed chair selection process continues. Domestic gold ETFs had a small outflow, and COMEX gold inventory decreased by 2 tons to 1119.8 tons, while Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory remained unchanged at 91.7 tons. SPDR gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 1052.5 tons. COMEX silver inventory increased by 17.1 tons to 14110.9 tons, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 11.5 tons to 899.6 tons, and iShares silver ETF holdings increased by 47.94 tons to 16,066.23 tons. London's silver inventory in November increased by 932 tons to 27183 tons, and India imported about 1000 tons of silver in October [1] - Trading strategy: With the Fed's expected rate cut, gold prices regained strength, and it is recommended to go long. For silver, the overseas market is tight, but there has been continuous inventory accumulation in the domestic market for many days, so it is suggested to take profit on long positions temporarily [1] Base Metals Copper - Market performance: Copper prices oscillated strongly on Friday [2] - Fundamental analysis: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike was implemented on Friday, and the central bank officials' statements were relatively mild, so the market traded the fact that the negative impact was over. The US proposed the "Genesis" strategic plan, and the US stock market strengthened significantly, boosting market risk appetite. On the supply side, the tight situation of copper mines remains unchanged, and the annual processing fee is set at a low level of $0, in line with market expectations. The spot discounts of flat - water copper in East and South China were 190 yuan and 10 yuan respectively, the refined - scrap copper price difference was about 4000 yuan, and the scrap copper ticket point was around 7.5%. The price difference between US and London copper narrowed significantly [2] - Trading strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips [2] Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract on Friday increased by 1.05% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 22185 yuan/ton, the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 330 yuan/ton, and the LME price was $2931/ton [2] - Fundamental analysis: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. On the demand side, the weekly aluminum product operating rate decreased slightly [2] - Trading strategy: The macro - environment is warm, social inventory continues to decline, and overseas supply disruptions support prices. However, in the consumption off - season, the downstream operating rate remains low, and high aluminum prices significantly suppress the consumption of scattered orders. The spot price has difficulty rising, and the discount supply tends to increase. With the balance of long and short factors, it is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate and consolidate within the current high - level range in the short term [2] Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The main rebar 2605 contract closed at 3114 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the night - session closing price of the previous trading day [5] - Fundamental analysis: The supply and demand of steel are weak, and the structural differentiation continues to be significant. The demand for building materials remains weak year - on - year, but fortunately, the supply has decreased significantly year - on - year, so the contradiction is limited. The demand for plates is stable, direct and indirect exports remain at a high level, the production has decreased rapidly, and the inventory reduction speed has marginally recovered. The rebar futures discount is large, and the valuation is low; the discount of hot - rolled coil futures is basically the same as the previous period, and the valuation is high. Steel mills continue to lose money, and production may continue to decline marginally and slightly. It is expected that the steel market will oscillate this week [5] - Trading strategy: Mainly wait and see, and try to short the rebar 2605 contract. The reference range for RB05 is 3080 - 3130 [5] Iron Ore - Market performance: The main iron ore 2605 contract closed at 779 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the night - session closing price of the previous trading day [5] - Fundamental analysis: The supply and demand of iron ore are weak. The molten iron production volume according to the Steel Union's statistics decreased by 2.7 tons week - on - week, showing a continuous decline for five weeks, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. The third round of price cuts has been proposed but not yet implemented. Steel mills' profits are poor, and the subsequent blast furnace production may stabilize or decline. The supply side conforms to the seasonal pattern, with a slight year - on - year increase. The supply and demand of iron ore are marginally weakening. Iron ore maintains a forward discount structure, but the absolute level remains at a relatively low level in the same period of history, and the valuation is moderately high. It is expected that the iron ore market will oscillate this week [5] - Trading strategy: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 765 - 800 [5] Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market performance: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans continued to decline, trading on the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America and weak demand [6] - Fundamental analysis: On the supply side, there is a small - scale production reduction in the near term, and in the long term, South America is expected to have a large supply in a normal year, and the current sowing and growth are normal. On the demand side, US soybean crushing is strong, but the export progress is slow. In general, the global supply and demand are expected to be loose [6] - Trading strategy: US soybeans are weak, trading on the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America and weak exports. In China, the cost - side drive is downward in the short term [7] Corn - Market performance: Corn futures prices oscillated narrowly, and corn spot prices declined slightly [7] - Fundamental analysis: The national corn channel inventory is at a low level, with a need for inventory building, and the procurement is concentrated in the Northeast, leading to logistics tension and a short - term shortage of effective supply. However, the continuous rise in corn prices has intensified the losses of downstream deep - processing enterprises, and after the continuous inventory replenishment in the feed sector, the procurement enthusiasm will decline. It is expected that the short - term corn spot prices will be weak. Attention should be paid to changes in weather and policies [7] - Trading strategy: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the futures prices are expected to oscillate [7] Energy Chemicals LLDPE - Market performance: On Friday, the main LLDPE contract continued to decline slightly. The low - price spot quotation in North China was 6230 yuan/ton, the basis of the 01 contract was 40 (spot price minus futures price), the basis was stable, and the market trading performance was average. In the overseas market, the US dollar price decreased slightly, and the current import window is closed [9] - Fundamental analysis: On the supply side, new plants are put into operation, some plants have reduced loads and shut down, and the domestic supply pressure has eased. The import window remains closed, and it is expected that the subsequent import volume will decrease slightly. Overall, the domestic supply pressure is rising but at a slower pace. On the demand side, the current off - season for downstream agricultural films, and the demand is weakening month - on - month, while the demand in other fields remains stable [9] - Trading strategy: In the short term, the industrial chain inventory is slightly reduced, the basis is weak, and the supply and demand are weak. As it enters the delivery month, it is mainly expected to oscillate weakly, and the upside space is significantly restricted by the import window. In the long term, the new production capacity will decrease in the first half of next year, and the supply - demand pattern will improve. It is recommended to buy on dips in the far - month contracts [9]

金融研究 2025年12月19日 星期五 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：12 月 18 日，A 股四大股指多数下跌，其中上证指数上涨 0.16%，报收 3876.37 点；深 成指下跌 1.29%，报收 13053.97 点；创业板指下跌 2.17%，报收 3107.06 点；科创 50 指数下跌 1.46%， 报收 1305.97 点。市场成交 16,768 亿元，较前日减少 1,576 亿元。行业板块方面，银行(+1.97%)， 煤炭(+1.89%)，石油石化(+1.25%)涨幅居前；电力设备(-2.22%)，通信(-1.58%)，电子(-1.51%)跌幅 居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IM>IC>IF，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,843/199/2,413。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-113、-179、1、290 亿元，分别变动-160、-64、+147、+77 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 59.4、31.04、21.59 与 9.32 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-10.21%、-5.46%、-5.93%与-3.88%，三年期历 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by various factors such as inflation data, central bank policies, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical events. Different commodity futures have different trends and investment suggestions based on their specific fundamentals [2][3][4]. - For precious metals, with the Fed's interest rate cut, gold is recommended to be bought, and silver long - positions should be temporarily stopped for profit [2]. - For base metals, copper is recommended to be bought at low prices, aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, alumina may continue to face downward pressure, silicon is recommended to be observed, and lithium carbonate's trading strategy depends on the resumption of production [2][3][4]. - For black industries, it is mainly recommended to wait and see, with a trial short - position for rebar [6]. - For agricultural products, soybean meal is bearish, corn futures are expected to fall, and for other products, specific trading strategies are given based on supply - demand [7][8]. - For energy and chemical products, short - term weakness is expected for some products, while long - term opportunities to buy at low prices are recommended for some others, and crude oil is recommended to be short - sold at high prices [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Market Performance**: Gold prices are in high - level oscillations, and silver overseas market is tight while domestic has continuous inventory accumulation [1][2]. - **Fundamentals**: US inflation slows down, central bank policies vary globally, and there are changes in inventories of gold and silver in different regions [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy gold, and stop profit for silver long - positions temporarily [2]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices oscillate strongly [3]. - **Fundamentals**: US CPI is lower than expected, the supply of copper ore is tight, and there are different price relationships in the market [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy at low prices [3]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The price of electrolytic aluminum shows a slight increase, and alumina shows a slight decrease [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, and the demand for aluminum products has a slight change, while the production capacity of alumina plants is stable [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, and alumina is expected to have limited rebound space and face downward pressure [3][4]. Silicon - **Market Performance**: The price of industrial silicon fluctuates, and the price of polysilicon decreases [4]. - **Fundamentals**: For industrial silicon, the supply and demand are stable with inventory changes; for polysilicon, the supply decline is less than the demand decline, and there are policy adjustments [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe for industrial silicon, and try to buy polysilicon at low prices after the price returns to the spot trading range [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The price of lithium carbonate decreases [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing in some aspects, with inventory changes [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider profit - taking for long - positions if the resumption of production is soon; expect price increase if the resumption is delayed [4]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The price of rebar decreases slightly [5][6]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply and demand of steel are weak, with structural differentiation, and the futures discount is large [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe mainly and try to short - sell the rebar 2605 contract [6]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The price of iron ore decreases slightly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply and demand of iron ore are weak, and the futures premium is at a relatively low level [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe mainly [6]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The price of coking coal decreases slightly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply and demand of coking coal are weak, and the futures premium is high [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe mainly [6]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans continue to decline [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply has short - term reduction and long - term large supply, and the demand has different situations [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell US soybeans and expect downward cost - driven in the domestic market [7]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices are weak, and spot prices vary [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Corn inventory is low, but the downstream profit is affected, and the demand may decline [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Spot prices are expected to weaken, and futures prices are expected to fall [7]. Fats and Oils - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market rebounds [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is in seasonal reduction but with year - on - year increase, and demand is decreasing [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Fats and oils are expected to oscillate weakly with variety differentiation [8]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The price of sugar futures decreases [8]. - **Fundamentals**: International sugar prices rebound slightly, and domestic sugar prices are affected by imports and production [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell in the futures market and sell call options [8]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: US cotton prices stop falling and rebound, and domestic cotton prices oscillate upward [8]. - **Fundamentals**: US cotton exports decrease, and domestic cotton imports increase [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy at low prices [8]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices are weak, and spot prices are stable [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The egg - laying hen inventory is decreasing, and the demand is affected by price changes [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate [8]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices oscillate, and spot prices increase slightly [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Pig supply is abundant, and demand is expected to increase seasonally [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate [8]. Energy and Chemical Products LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The price of LLDPE decreases slightly [9][10]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is increasing but at a slower pace, and demand is weak in the short - term [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term weak oscillation, and long - term buy at low prices for far - month contracts [10]. Rubber - **Market Performance**: The price of rubber fluctuates [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Raw material prices are high - level oscillating, and tire enterprise operating rates decline slightly [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try to buy lightly after price correction [10]. PP - **Market Performance**: The price of PP decreases slightly [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term weak oscillation, and long - term buy at low prices for far - month contracts [10]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices decline and then have risk premiums but with limited increase space [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is under pressure, and demand is in the off - season with inventory accumulation [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell at high prices [10]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The price of styrene decreases slightly [11]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - demand is weak, and inventories are at a relatively high level [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term weak oscillation, and long - term buy at low prices or do reverse spreads [11].

金融研究 2025年12月18日 星期四 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨跌幅% | 现价 | 涨跌 | 成交量 | 成交额 | 持仓量 | 日增仓量 | 结算价 | 基差 | 基差年化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | | | | 收益率% | | IC2512 | 中证 2512 | 2.02 | 7146.8 | 141.4 | 75907 | 10740836 | 56653 | -18652 | 7151.8 | -9.0 | 10.5 | | IC2601 | 中证 2601 | 2.25 | 7107.8 | 156.4 | 29360 | 4125282 | 50281 | 10713 | 7101.6 | 30.0 | -5.0 | | IC2603 | 中证 2603 | 2.37 | 6996.0 | 161.8 | 63450 | 8780585 | 121840 | 8807 | 6992.2 | 141 ...

1. Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report 2. Core Views - The market conditions of various commodities are diverse, with different supply - demand relationships and price trends. For example, some metals are in a state of supply - demand imbalance, and agricultural products are affected by factors such as production and demand expectations. Energy and chemical products are also facing different situations in terms of supply, demand, and inventory [1][4][6] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories 3.1. Basic Metals Copper - Market performance: Copper prices oscillated strongly yesterday [1] - Fundamentals: Traded on the weaker - than - expected US employment data and the expectation of loose overall liquidity. The supply of copper ore remains tight. Domestic spot prices show different premiums and discounts. The London structure is in contango [1] - Trading strategy: Wait for buying opportunities [1] Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.32% compared to the previous trading day, and the LME price was $2,895 per ton [1] - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, with a slight increase in operating capacity. The weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased slightly [1] - Trading strategy: Entering the traditional consumption off - season, with continuous overseas supply disturbances, a warm macro - environment, and low inventory supporting the price, the price is expected to oscillate [1] Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the main alumina contract increased by 0.67% compared to the previous trading day [1] - Fundamentals: The operating capacity of alumina plants remains stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production [1] - Trading strategy: The fundamental supply - demand contradiction remains unchanged. Domestic and foreign spot prices continue to decline, and cost support weakens. The rebound space is expected to be limited, and the downward pressure is difficult to change [1] Zinc - Market performance: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc 2601 contract decreased by 0.26% compared to the previous trading day. Social inventory decreased by 0.25 tons [1] - Fundamentals: The macro - atmosphere is warm, and supply is tightening. Overseas, a Japanese smelter was shut down due to an earthquake, and LME inventory has increased but the structural contradiction remains. Domestically, zinc concentrate processing fees have been continuously and significantly reduced, squeezing smelting profits and leading to some smelter production cuts. Demand is differentiated [1] - Trading strategy: Buy on dips and be cautious about chasing high prices [1] Lead - Market performance: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc 2601 contract decreased by 0.26% compared to the previous trading day, and social inventory decreased by 0.25 tons [1] - Fundamentals: Domestic supply and demand are mild, with no prominent contradictions. The start - up rate of primary lead smelters decreased slightly, and the start - up rate of secondary lead decreased. The start - up rate of lead - acid batteries increased slightly. The social inventory of lead ingots decreased slightly, but there is a possibility of an increase in visible inventory due to delivery [1] - Trading strategy: Operate within a range, selling high and buying low [1] Industrial Silicon - Market performance: The main 05 contract closed at 8,470 yuan per ton, up 105 yuan from the previous trading day [2] - Fundamentals: The number of open furnaces increased, and social inventory increased slightly. The demand side shows that the polysilicon and organic silicon industries are promoting anti - involution. The aluminum alloy start - up rate remains stable [2] - Trading strategy: The current fundamentals are stable in supply and demand, but social inventory has been increasing slightly for a month. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan per ton. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: Affected by the capital side, LC2605 closed at 108,620 yuan per ton, an increase of 8.0% [2] - Fundamentals: The spot price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate increased. Supply is expected to increase in December, while demand for some materials is expected to decrease. Inventory is expected to continue to decline in December [2] - Trading strategy: Concerns about supply have fermented, and inventory reduction has stabilized prices at a high level. Pay attention to the resumption of production rhythm of Jianxiawo and year - end energy storage policy guidance. If production resumes soon, there is downward pressure on prices; if it is postponed to January, prices are expected to oscillate upward [2] Polysilicon - Market performance: The main 05 contract closed at 61,595 yuan per ton, up 2,995 yuan from the previous trading day, an increase of 5.11% [2] - Fundamentals: Supply is stable, and demand for silicon wafers, battery chips, and components in December is expected to decline by more than 10% month - on - month [2] - Trading strategy: Due to the supply decline being less than the demand decline, inventory is expected to increase by nearly 30,000 tons. The market is concerned about anti - involution price - support and production - limit plans. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price returns to the spot trading range [2] 3.2. Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3,125 yuan per ton, up 46 yuan from the previous trading day's night - session closing price [3] - Fundamentals: The apparent demand and production of building materials show different trends in different calibers. The supply and demand of steel are weak, with significant structural differentiation. Rebar futures are at a large discount, and hot - rolled coil futures' discount is basically flat. Steel mills are continuously losing money, and production may continue to decline slightly [3] - Trading strategy: Mainly wait and see, and try to short the rebar 2605 contract. The reference range for RB05 is 3,050 - 3,100 yuan per ton [3] Iron Ore - Market performance: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 778 yuan per ton, up 14 yuan from the previous trading day's night - session closing price [3] - Fundamentals: The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil increased, and port inventory decreased. Iron ore supply and demand are weak, and the demand for iron ore may decline steadily in the future. The iron ore futures are in a forward - discount structure, and the valuation is moderately high [3] - Trading strategy: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 765 - 800 yuan per ton [3] Coking Coal - Market performance: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1,114 yuan per ton, up 53 yuan from the previous trading day's night - session closing price [3] - Fundamentals: The iron - making water production decreased, and the second - round coke price cut has been implemented. The inventory of coking coal in different links shows differentiation, and the overall inventory level is moderate. The 05 contract futures are at a premium to the spot, and the valuation is high [3] - Trading strategy: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for JM05 is 1,100 - 1,150 yuan per ton [3] 3.3. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market performance: The CBOT soybean price continues to decline in the short term [4] - Fundamentals: The supply side shows a slight near - term production reduction and a large - supply expectation in the long - term in South America. The demand side shows strong US soybean crushing and slow export progress. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose [4] - Trading strategy: The US soybean price is weak. The domestic market is near - strong and far - weak in the short term, but the cost - side drives the price down [4] Corn - Market performance: The corn futures price oscillates narrowly, and the spot price rises [4] - Fundamentals: The national corn channel inventory is low, with a need for inventory building, which leads to logistics tension and short - term supply shortage, making the spot price strong. However, the continuous rise of corn prices has increased the losses of downstream deep - processing enterprises, and the purchasing enthusiasm of the feed end will decline. The spot price is expected to be weak in the short term, and the futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [4] - Trading strategy: The spot price weakens, and the futures price oscillates and declines [4] Oils and Fats - Market performance: The Malaysian palm oil market is weak [4] - Fundamentals: The supply side is in the seasonal production - reduction period but with a year - on - year increase in production. The demand side shows a 15% month - on - month decrease in Malaysian palm oil exports from December 1 - 10. The near - term inventory continues to accumulate, and the long - term shows seasonal production reduction [4] - Trading strategy: Oils and fats are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with differentiation among varieties. Pay attention to future production and biodiesel policies [4] White Sugar - Market performance: The Zhengzhou Sugar 05 contract closed at 5,155 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.35% [4] - Fundamentals: Internationally, the sugar price rebounded slightly this week, and part of the northern - hemisphere production increase has been priced in. The Indian export situation will affect the international trend. Domestically, the sugar price rebounded under the influence of the international market, and the production - increase expectation in Guangxi has been priced in. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level in the fourth quarter [4] - Trading strategy: Short in the futures market and sell call options [4] Cotton - Market performance: The US cotton futures price stopped falling and rebounded, and the international crude oil price rebounded significantly [4] - Fundamentals: Internationally, the US textile and clothing import volume decreased in September, and the Indian cotton yarn export volume changed slightly. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated upward, with obvious buying support. The sales of medium - and high - count yarns are good, and the start - up rate of spinning mills is basically stable [4] - Trading strategy: Buy on dips, with a price range of 13,800 - 14,200 yuan per ton [4] Eggs - Market performance: The egg futures price oscillates narrowly, and the spot price rises [4] - Fundamentals: The number of laying hens in production is decreasing, and the enthusiasm for culling is decreasing. Low prices can drive demand, but the downstream's willingness to purchase decreases after the price increase. The increase in vegetable prices boosts egg prices, but the upward pressure on egg prices is large due to sufficient supply. The egg price is expected to oscillate in the short term [4] - Trading strategy: The supply - demand contradiction is not large, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [4] Pigs - Market performance: The pig futures price rose first and then fell, and the spot price rose slightly [4] - Fundamentals: The supply of pigs is still abundant, but the demand is expected to increase seasonally. The supply - demand pressure has been relieved compared to before. The demand for southern bacon - curing is expected to increase, driving the slaughter volume to continue to rise. The pig price is expected to oscillate and rise, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [4] - Trading strategy: The demand increases seasonally, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [4] Apples - Market performance: The main contract closed at 9,122 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.08% [4] - Fundamentals: This year, the total apple production is low, the inventory is low, and the quality is poor. The overall production decreased by 8% - 15% year - on - year, and the high - quality fruit rate is less than 20%. The spot purchase price has increased significantly, but the sales are slow. The market is trading a situation of weak supply and demand [4] - Trading strategy: Wait and see [4] 3.4. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market performance: The main LLDPE contract fell slightly yesterday. The spot price in North China is 6,400 yuan per ton, and the import window is closed [6] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, new devices are put into operation, and some devices reduce production or stop. The import volume is expected to decrease slightly. On the demand side, the downstream agricultural film is in the off - season, and the demand decreases month - on - month [6] - Trading strategy: In the short term, the inventory in the industrial chain decreases slightly, and the supply - demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, the new production capacity will decrease in the first half of next year, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the far - month contracts [6] PTA - Market performance: The PX CFR China price is $827 per ton, and the PTA East China spot price is 4,594 yuan per ton [6] - Fundamentals: The domestic PX supply is high. The import supply is also at a relatively high level. The PTA short - term supply decreases, and there is a seasonal inventory - accumulation pressure in the medium term. The polyester factory load is high, and the downstream is in the off - season [6] - Trading strategy: The PX supply - demand is strong, with a possible short - term callback. The PTA is expected to accumulate inventory seasonally in the off - season, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern will improve. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy the 05 contract [6] Rubber - Market performance: The RU2605 contract oscillated upward on Wednesday, closing at 15,390 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.42% [6] - Fundamentals: The prices of Thai raw materials are high, and the inventory in Qingdao has increased seasonally. The supply of tire enterprises is at a low level, and the fundamental change is not obvious [6] - Trading strategy: The rubber price rises with the high raw material prices and the strengthening of the commodity index, but be cautious about chasing high prices [6] PP - Market performance: The main PP contract oscillated slightly yesterday. The spot price in East China is 6,150 yuan per ton, the import window is closed, and the export window is open [6] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, new devices are being put into operation, and some devices stop unexpectedly. The supply pressure increases. On the demand side, the downstream start - up rate decreases month - on - month, and the national subsidy has overdrawn part of the fourth - quarter demand [6] - Trading strategy: In the short term, the inventory in the industrial chain decreases slightly, and the supply - demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, the new production capacity will decrease in the first half of next year, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the far - month contracts [6] MEG - Market performance: The East China spot price of MEG is 3,636 yuan per ton [6] - Fundamentals: The supply is at a relatively high level, and the overseas production is high. The East China port inventory has continued to accumulate. The polyester load is high, and the downstream is in the off - season. The medium - term supply - demand will continue to accumulate inventory [6] - Trading strategy: The short - term supply - demand inventory - accumulation pressure is large, and the price is under pressure. The 05 contract valuation has been compressed to a low level, and there may be an opportunity for inventory reduction in the medium term [6] Crude Oil - Market performance: The oil price rebounded significantly yesterday, but the increase is limited due to the inability to reverse the first - quarter oversupply situation [6] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, pay attention to Russian oil production and exports in December and the impact of the US - Venezuela military conflict on Venezuelan exports. The OPEC+ plans to increase production nominally, but the actual increase is small. The supply pressure is still large. On the demand side, the refinery start - up rate in Europe and the US has recovered, but the terminal demand is in the off - season. The OECD oil inventory is higher than the five - year average [6] - Trading strategy: The probability of oversupply is high at the end of the year and in Q1. The crude oil should be shorted. Geopolitical events can only cause short - term disturbances [6] Styrene - Market performance: The main EB contract fell slightly yesterday. The spot price in East China is 6,430 yuan per ton, and the import window is closed [7] - Fundamentals: The pure benzene and styrene inventories are at normal to high levels. The short - term supply - demand of styrene weakens after the resumption of production. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the start - up rate decreases [7] - Trading strategy: In the short term, the supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. In the medium - to - long term, the supply pressure of pure benzene is greater than that of styrene. It is recommended to buy styrene on dips, conduct pure benzene reverse arbitrage, and buy styrene profit on dips [7]

2025年12月17日 星期三 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：12 月 16 日，A 股四大股指有所回调，其中上证指数下跌 1.11%，报收 3824.81 点；深成 指下跌 1.51%，报收 12914.67 点；创业板指下跌 2.1%，报收 3071.76 点；科创 50 指数下跌 1.94%， 报收 1293.38 点。市场成交 17,481 亿元，较前日减少 463 亿元。行业板块方面，商贸零售(+1.32%)， 美容护理(+0.66%)，社会服务(+0.13%)涨幅居前；通信(-2.95%)，综合(-2.81%)，有色金属(-2.81%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,090/66/4,299。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-269、-252、81、439 亿元，分别变动-101、-60、+43、+117 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 64.22、41.92、17.55 与 9.19 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-10.16%、-6.8%、-4.44%与-3.53%，三年期历史分位数 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Fed cut rates as expected, gold price regained strength, recommended to go long; silver overseas market was tight, but domestic inventory had accumulated for days, recommended to take profit on long positions temporarily [1] - Base Metals: - Copper: Wait for low - buying opportunities [2] - Aluminum: Expected to fluctuate due to overseas supply disruptions, warm macro - environment and low inventory [2] - Alumina: Faced downward pressure, follow the impact of Guinea's election on the ore end [2][3] - Zinc: Go long at low prices and be cautious about chasing highs [3] - Lead: Operate in a range, buy low and sell high [3] - Industrial Silicon: Observe as the market was in a weak oscillation with no clear direction [3] - Lithium Carbonate: Observe in the short - term, pay attention to the resumption of production rhythm and year - end energy storage policy guidance [3][4] - Polysilicon: Expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 50,000 - 58,000 yuan/ton [4] - Tin: Wait for low - buying opportunities [4] - Black Industry: - Rebar: Mainly observe, try to short the RB05 contract [5] - Iron Ore: Mainly observe [5][6] - Coking Coal: Mainly observe [6] - Agricultural Products: - Soybean Meal: US soybeans were weak, domestic market was near - strong and far - weak [6] - Corn: Spot price was expected to weaken, futures price to oscillate and fall [6] - Edible Oils: Oscillate weakly and show variety differentiation [6] - Cotton: Buy low with a price reference range of 13,800 - 14,200 yuan/ton [6] - Eggs: Futures price was expected to oscillate [7] - Pigs: Futures price was expected to oscillate [7] - Energy and Chemicals: - LLDPE: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [8] - PVC: Conduct reverse arbitrage due to weak supply - demand [8] - Glass: Conduct reverse arbitrage due to weak supply - demand [8][9] - PP: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [9] - Crude Oil: Be used as a short - position configuration, short at high prices after geopolitical premiums [9] - Styrene: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on styrene or conduct pure benzene reverse arbitrage and long styrene profit in the medium - long term [9] - Soda Ash: Conduct reverse arbitrage due to weak supply - demand [10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals (Gold) - Market Performance: Gold price oscillated, international gold price basically closed flat [1] - Fundamentals: US November non - farm data was good, but unemployment rate soared; Fed had internal differences; domestic gold ETF had a small inflow, and inventories in different places changed [1] - Trading Strategy: Go long [1] Base Metals Copper - Market Performance: Copper price oscillated weakly [2] - Fundamentals: US non - farm data and unemployment rate affected the dollar index; supply was tight, demand had price differences, and the London structure changed [2] - Trading Strategy: Wait for low - buying opportunities [2] Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.34% [2] - Fundamentals: High - load production on the supply side, slightly decreased weekly aluminum product start - up rate on the demand side [2] - Trading Strategy: Expected to oscillate [2] Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.16% [2] - Fundamentals: Stable production capacity on the supply side, high - load production of electrolytic aluminum plants on the demand side [2] - Trading Strategy: Faced downward pressure, follow Guinea's election impact [2][3] Zinc - Market Performance: The closing price of the SHFE zinc 2601 contract decreased by 1.71% [3] - Fundamentals: Macro - warming and supply tightening; overseas and domestic supply issues; demand was differentiated; import window was closed [3] - Trading Strategy: Go long at low prices, be cautious about chasing highs [3] Lead - Market Performance: The closing price of the SHFE lead 2601 contract decreased by 1.09% [3] - Fundamentals: Mild supply - demand, slightly decreased smelter start - up rate, slightly increased battery start - up rate, possible inventory accumulation [3] - Trading Strategy: Operate in a range [3] Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract increased by 0.18% [3] - Fundamentals: Increased furnace - opening quantity on the supply side, social inventory accumulated; demand in different industries had different trends [3] - Trading Strategy: Observe as the market was in a weak oscillation [3] Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: LC2605 decreased by 0.46% [3] - Fundamentals: Increased lithium concentrate price, increased production, decreased demand in some materials; expected to maintain destocking [3][4] - Trading Strategy: Observe in the short - term [3][4] Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract increased by 0.18% [4] - Fundamentals: Stable production on the supply side, decreased demand in related industries; expected inventory accumulation [4] - Trading Strategy: Expected to fluctuate widely [4] Tin - Market Performance: Tin price oscillated weakly [4] - Fundamentals: Tight supply, increased supply from Myanmar; demand had delivery and premium situations [4] - Trading Strategy: Wait for low - buying opportunities [4] Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The main contract increased by 7 yuan/ton [5] - Fundamentals: Decreased inventory, weak supply - demand, structural differentiation; high - loss of steel mills, possible production reduction [5] - Trading Strategy: Observe, try to short the RB05 contract [5] Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main contract increased by 8.5 yuan/ton [5] - Fundamentals: Increased shipment, decreased port inventory; weak supply - demand, decreased iron - water production; marginal weakening of supply - demand [5][6] - Trading Strategy: Observe [5][6] Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main contract increased by 4 yuan/ton [6] - Fundamentals: Decreased iron - water production, deteriorated steel mill profits; first - round coke price cut implemented, second - round proposed; inventory was at a neutral level [6] - Trading Strategy: Observe [6] Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans continued to decline [6] - Fundamentals: Slight reduction in the near - term supply, large supply in the far - term in South America; strong US soybean crushing and slow export [6] - Trading Strategy: US soybeans were weak, domestic market was near - strong and far - weak [6] Corn - Market Performance: Futures price oscillated narrowly, spot price slightly decreased [6] - Fundamentals: Low channel inventory, short - term supply shortage, but downstream losses and reduced procurement enthusiasm [6] - Trading Strategy: Spot price to weaken, futures price to oscillate and fall [6] Edible Oils - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil continued to fall [6] - Fundamentals: Seasonal production reduction but year - on - year increase on the supply side; weak export on the demand side; near - term inventory accumulation [6] - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly and show variety differentiation [6] Cotton - Market Performance: US cotton futures price started to fall, Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to rise [6] - Fundamentals: Slightly bearish US cotton export data, Brazilian cotton export increased; strong buying support for Zhengzhou cotton but weak yarn price increase [6] - Trading Strategy: Buy low in the range of 13,800 - 14,200 yuan/ton [6] Eggs - Market Performance: Futures price was weak, spot price increased [7] - Fundamentals: Decreased laying - hen inventory, slowed de - capacity; low price could drive demand, but high price reduced downstream purchasing willingness [7] - Trading Strategy: Futures price to oscillate [7] Pigs - Market Performance: Futures price oscillated, spot price slightly decreased [7] - Fundamentals: Sufficient supply, seasonal increase in demand; increased southern curing demand, expected increase in slaughter volume [7] - Trading Strategy: Futures price to oscillate [7] Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market Performance: The main contract oscillated slightly [8] - Fundamentals: New device production and some device shutdowns on the supply side, reduced import expected; off - season for downstream demand [8] - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [8] PVC - Market Performance: V05 increased by 1.9% [8] - Fundamentals: Boosted by macro - sentiment, increased supply, decreased downstream start - up rate, high social inventory [8] - Trading Strategy: Conduct reverse arbitrage [8] Glass - Market Performance: FG05 decreased by 0.2% [8] - Fundamentals: Decreased price, increased production reduction, seasonal inventory decline, weak supply - demand, low valuation [8][9] - Trading Strategy: Conduct reverse arbitrage [8][9] PP - Market Performance: The main contract oscillated slightly [9] - Fundamentals: New device production and some device shutdowns on the supply side, opened export window; decreased downstream start - up rate [9] - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [9] Crude Oil - Market Performance: Oil price continuously fell to a five - year low [9] - Fundamentals: Supply was affected by sanctions and production increases; demand was in the off - season; inventory was above the five - year average [9] - Trading Strategy: Be used as a short - position configuration, short at high prices after geopolitical premiums [9] Styrene - Market Performance: The main contract oscillated slightly [9] - Fundamentals: High pure benzene and styrene inventories; decreased downstream demand [9] - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on styrene or conduct pure benzene reverse arbitrage and long styrene profit in the medium - long term [9] Soda Ash - Market Performance: sa05 increased by 1.4% [10] - Fundamentals: New device production, price decline, high inventory, weak downstream demand [10] - Trading Strategy: Conduct reverse arbitrage [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading strategies for each commodity. The overall view is that different commodities face diverse market conditions, with some showing potential for price increases, others for decreases, and some expected to trade within specific ranges or remain volatile. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Basic Metals - **Copper**: Market showed a sideways movement yesterday. With economic data needing a boost, supply tightness persists, and the trading strategy is to buy on dips [2]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract price dropped by 1.13% yesterday. Supply increased slightly while demand weakened, and prices are expected to trade sideways [2]. - **Alumina**: The main contract price rose by 2.71% yesterday. Supply remained stable while demand was strong, but the upside is limited, and downward pressure persists [2]. - **Zinc**: The 2512 contract price fell by 0.78% yesterday. Supply tightened due to production cuts, demand was mixed, and the strategy is to buy on dips cautiously [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main 05 contract price decreased by 0.48%. Supply increased and demand was stable, and the market is expected to trade weakly between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton [2][3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main 05 contract price rose by 1.47%. Supply was stable while demand declined, and the market is expected to trade widely between 50000 - 58000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Tin**: The price moved weakly yesterday. Supply was tight, and the trading strategy is to buy on dips [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2605 contract price rose by 4 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weak, and the strategy is to mainly observe and consider shorting the 2605 contract [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2605 contract price rose by 1 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weakening, and the strategy is to mainly observe [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2605 contract price fell by 7.5 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weakening, and the strategy is to mainly observe and close previous positions [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans are in a downward trend. Supply is mixed, demand is divided, and the market is trading the expectation of a South American bumper harvest [6]. - **Corn**: Futures prices are oscillating, and spot prices are showing a mixed trend. Supply - demand is complex, and the futures are expected to decline while spot prices may weaken [6]. - **Edible Oils**: The Malaysian palm oil market is falling. Supply is seasonally decreasing but increasing year - on - year, demand is weak, and the market is expected to trade weakly [6]. - **White Sugar**: The 05 contract price fell by 1.34%. International and domestic markets are under pressure, and the strategy is to short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices are rising, and domestic prices are also increasing. Supply - demand is mixed, and the strategy is to buy on dips [7]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices are weak, and spot prices are stable. Supply - demand is balanced, and prices are expected to trade sideways [7]. - **Hogs**: Futures prices are oscillating, and spot prices are showing a mixed trend. Supply is abundant, demand is seasonally increasing, and prices are expected to trade sideways [7]. - **Apples**: The main contract price fell by 3.02%. Supply - demand is weak, and the strategy is to observe [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract showed a slight oscillation. Supply pressure is rising but at a slower pace, demand is weakening, and the short - term trend is weak while the long - term outlook is better [8][9]. - **PVC**: The V05 contract rose by 1.5%. Supply increased, demand decreased, and the strategy is to short [9]. - **PTA**: PX supply is high, PTA supply is short - term down and mid - term under inventory pressure. The strategy is to hold a long - term bullish view on PX and be cautious on PTA [9]. - **Rubber**: The 2605 contract showed a wide - range oscillation. Supply - demand is balanced with inventory increasing, and the market is expected to trade sideways [9]. - **Glass**: The FG05 contract rose by 0.4%. Supply - demand is weak, and the strategy is to use an inverse spread [9]. - **PP**: The main contract showed a slight oscillation. Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and the short - term trend is weak while the long - term outlook is better [10]. - **MEG**: Supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the strategy is to take profits and wait for mid - term de - stocking opportunities [10]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices fell to a new low. Supply pressure is high, demand is in the off - season, and the strategy is to short [10]. - **Styrene**: The main contract showed a slight oscillation. Supply - demand is weak in the short - term and the strategy is to trade sideways, with a long - term bullish view on styrene [10][11]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa05 contract rose by 1.4%. Supply increased, inventory is high, demand is weak, and the strategy is to use an inverse spread [11].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: December 16, 2025 [1] - Report issuer: China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. [1] Group 2: Market Performance A-share Market - On December 15, the four major A-share indexes pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.55% to 3867.92 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.1% to 13112.09 points, the ChiNext Index declined 1.77% to 3137.8 points, and the STAR 50 Index decreased 2.22% to 1318.91 points. Market turnover was 1.7944 trillion yuan, a decrease of 324.6 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, non-bank finance (+1.59%), commerce and trade retail (+1.49%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (+1.24%) led the gains, while electronics (-2.42%), communication (-1.89%), and media (-1.63%) led the losses [2]. - In terms of market strength, IH > IF > IC > IM. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2313/176/2965 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of -16.8 billion, -19.2 billion, 3.8 billion, and 32.2 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -14 billion, -13.1 billion, +16.2 billion, and +10.9 billion yuan respectively [2]. Stock Index Futures - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 73.88, 53.16, 24.26, and 8.47 points respectively. The annualized basis yields were -10.99%, -8.12%, -5.79%, and -3.08% respectively, and the three - year historical quantiles were 36%, 30%, 20%, and 26% respectively [3]. Bond Futures - On December 15, interest - rate bonds performed weakly. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0.01%, TF dropped 0.03%, T declined 0.12%, and TL decreased 0.99% [3]. Short - term Capital Market - In open - market operations, the central bank injected 130.9 billion yuan and withdrew 122.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 8.6 billion yuan [3]. Group 3: Trading Strategies Stock Index Futures - In the medium - to - long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock indexes as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [3]. Bond Futures - In the medium - to - long term, with the upward shift of risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [3]. Group 4: Market Data Tables Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - The table shows detailed data such as the code, name, change percentage, current price, trading volume, and basis of various stock index futures and spot products [6]. Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - The table presents data including the code, name, change percentage, current price, trading volume, and net basis of various bond futures and spot products [8]. Short - term Capital Interest Rate Market Changes - The table shows the current price, previous price, price one week ago, and price one month ago of SHIBOR overnight [11]. Group 5: Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the prosperity of manufacturing, real estate, and social activities is currently lower than in previous periods, and further observation is needed [11].