Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On July 2nd, A-share four major stock indexes pulled back, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.09% to 3454.79 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.61% to 10412.63 points, the ChiNext Index down 1.13% to 2123.72 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index down 1.22% to 982.64 points. Market turnover was 1.4051 trillion yuan, a decrease of 91.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - In terms of industry sectors, steel (+3.37%), coal (+1.99%), and building materials (+1.42%) led the gains; electronics (-2.01%), communication (-1.96%), and national defense and military industry (-1.94%) led the losses [1]. - From the perspective of market strength, IH > IF > IC > IM, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1,943/190/3,282 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors' net capital inflows were -15.8 billion, -17.4 billion, 4.8 billion, and 28.4 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -6.7 billion, -3.4 billion, +2.5 billion, and +7.6 billion yuan respectively [1]. 2. Stock Index Futures - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 120.68, 86.75, 40.48, and 24.95 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were -14.49%, -11.15%, -7.78%, and -6.94% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 15%, 12%, 16%, and 18% respectively [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, the stock index discount is reverting, and the current direction is unclear. A neutral strategy can be considered. In the medium - to long - term, the report maintains the judgment of being long on the economy. Using stock indexes as long - term substitutes has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate IF, IC, and IM forward contracts on dips. For near - month contracts, there is a risk of a decline in micro - cap stocks, which may drag down the IC and IM indexes, so caution is advised [1]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures - **Yield Changes**: On July 2nd, the yields of treasury bond futures declined. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.302, down 1.59 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.442, down 1.56 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.561, down 1.71 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 1.902, down 2.12 bps [2]. - **Spot Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250006.IB, with a yield change of -0.6 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.054, and an IRR of 1.76%; for the 5 - year, the CTD bond is 240020.IB, with a yield change of -1.25 bps, a net basis of -0.081, and an IRR of 1.88%; for the 10 - year, the CTD bond is 250007.IB, with a yield change of -1 bps, a net basis of -0.126, and an IRR of 2.04%; for the 30 - year, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of -2 bps, a net basis of -0.003, and an IRR of 1.51% [3]. - **Funding Situation**: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 98.5 billion yuan and withdrew 365.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 266.8 billion yuan [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: On the futures side, the long - end buying power is strong, possibly betting on a further decline in future policy interest rates. It is recommended to be short - term long and medium - to long - term short. Short - term, buy T and TL on dips, and medium - to long - term, hedge T and TL on rallies [3]. 4. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that recent social activities and real - estate market sentiment have contracted [11].

2025年07月03日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏强运行，伦敦价格突破 1 万美金。 | | | 基本面：昨日美国小非农数据不增反降，数据后美债收益率下行。供应端铜矿和精铜紧张有增无减，市场担 | | 铜 | 忧 232 落地后铜价受影响。伦敦结构 74 美金 back。华东华南平水铜现货升水 90 元和 50 元。 | | | 交易策略：在反内卷的情况下，商品呈现偏多氛围，铜宏观环境和基本面均支持价格走强，维持逢低买入思 | | | 路。 | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2508 合约收盘价较前一交易日+1.31%，收于 20580 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 320 元/吨， | | | LME 价格 2591 美元/吨。 | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅上升。需求方面，铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | 铝 | 交易策略：宏观环境呈现利好。但沪铝基本面面临需求走弱及成本支撑趋弱的双重压力，存在潜在下行风险， | | | 建议 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. 2. Core Views - Short - term: For stock index futures, with the short - term regression of index futures discount and unclear direction, a neutral strategy can be considered; for treasury bond futures, long - end buying power is strong, suggesting a short - long and long - short strategy, buying T and TL contracts on dips in the short - term and hedging on rallies in the long - term [1][2]. - Medium - to long - term: Maintain the view of being bullish on the economy. It is recommended to allocate IF, IC, and IM forward contracts on dips [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Performance - **Stock Index Market**: On July 1, A - share four major stock indexes showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.39% to 3457.75 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.11% to 10476.29 points, the ChiNext Index fell 0.24% to 2147.92 points, and the STAR 50 Index fell 0.86% to 994.8 points. Market turnover was 1496.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.8 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, comprehensive, pharmaceutical and biological, and banking sectors led the gains, while computer, commercial and retail, and communication sectors led the losses. In terms of market strength, IC>IM>IH>IF. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 2628, 247, and 2542 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors' net capital inflows were - 9.1 billion, - 14 billion, 2.3 billion, and 20.8 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 10.8 billion, - 8.3 billion, + 4.9 billion, and + 14.2 billion yuan respectively [1]. - **Stock Index Futures Basis**: The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts were 163.37, 117.07, 47.76, and 26.71 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 18.85%, - 14.5%, - 8.91%, and - 7.23% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 6%, 8%, 10%, and 17% respectively [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On July 1, treasury bond futures yields showed a pattern of short - term rising and long - term falling. Among active contracts, the implied interest rates of two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year bonds were 1.318 (up 0.93bps from the previous day), 1.453 (down 0.72bps), 1.577 (down 1.12bps), and 1.922 (down 1.39bps) respectively. For the current active 2509 contract, the CTD bonds' yield changes, net basis, and IRR of different - term treasury bond futures were also provided [2]. - **Funding Situation**: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 131 billion yuan and withdrew 406.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan [2]. Trading Strategies - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term: Consider a neutral strategy; medium - to long - term: recommend allocating IF, IC, and IM forward contracts on dips; be cautious with near - month contracts due to the risk of small - cap stocks falling [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term, buy T and TL contracts on dips; long - term, hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [2]. Economic Data High - frequency data shows that recent social activities and real - estate market sentiment have contracted [9]. Short - term Funding Rates The current prices of SHIBOR overnight, DR001, SHIBOR one - week, and DR007 are 1.37, 1.37, 1.53, and 1.55 respectively, showing different changes compared with the previous day, a week ago, and a month ago [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodities including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It suggests different trading approaches such as cautious bullishness, short - selling, and range - bound trading based on the specific situation of each commodity [2][4][6]. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The 2508 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed at 20,580 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, while the demand from the aluminum product industry weakens. With a favorable macro - environment but potential downward risks in the fundamentals, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish [2]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract of alumina closed at 2,985 yuan/ton, down 1.34% from the previous trading day. The alumina plants' production is stable, and the demand from electrolytic aluminum plants is also stable. It is expected to trade in a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Zinc**: The 2507 contract of zinc closed at 22,315 yuan/ton, down 1.17% from the previous trading day. The supply of zinc is expected to increase, and the demand is decreasing. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [2]. - **Lead**: The 2507 contract of lead closed at 17,070 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the previous trading day. The supply of lead is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The 09 contract of industrial silicon closed at 7,765 yuan/ton, down 295 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply is increasing, and the demand is mixed. The futures price is expected to trade in a wide range [2][3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2509 contract of lithium carbonate closed at 62,780 yuan/ton, up 0.16%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak in the near - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell at high prices [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The 08 contract of polysilicon closed at 32,700 yuan/ton, down 835 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,014 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The steel supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the futures premium has narrowed. It is recommended to exit the single - side position and go long on the far - month coil - to - ore ratio [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 710.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply and demand of iron ore are neutral in the short - term, but there is an over - supply situation in the medium - term. It is recommended to exit long positions and short - sell the 2509 contract, and go long on the far - month coil - to - ore ratio [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract of coking coal closed at 813 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply and demand of coking coal are relatively loose, and the futures are over - valued. It is recommended to exit long positions and short - sell the 2509 contract [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean market lacks new drivers. The short - term US soybeans are in a range - bound state, and the domestic soybean meal follows the international cost. The focus is on US soybean production and tariff policies [6]. - **Corn**: The 2509 contract of corn trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is falling. The supply and demand of corn are tightening, and it is expected that the futures price will trade with a bullish bias [6]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract of sugar closed at 5,716 yuan/ton, down 1.12%. The Brazilian sugar - making ratio is expected to remain high, and the domestic sugar price is expected to trade weakly. It is recommended to short - sell in the futures market, sell call options, and lock in the price for end - users [6]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price fluctuated, and the domestic cotton futures price is bullish. The sown area of US cotton has decreased, while the domestic sown area is higher than expected. It is recommended to buy at low prices and adopt a range - bound trading strategy [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price is weak. The supply is decreasing marginally but still at a high level year - on - year, and the demand is increasing. The short - term market is in a weak seasonal stage, and it is necessary to pay attention to production and biodiesel policies [7]. - **Eggs**: The 2508 contract of eggs trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is stable. The supply is high, and the demand is low. The futures price is expected to trade in a range [7]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract of hogs trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is rising. The short - term price is expected to be bullish, but the medium - term price may decline [7]. - **Apples**: The futures price of apples is affected by the early - maturing varieties. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE main contract declined slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving marginally. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [8][9]. - **PVC**: The 09 contract of PVC closed at 4,834 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to exit short positions and wait and see, and sell call options above 4,950 [9]. - **PTA**: The PX price is stable, and the PTA supply is decreasing in the short - term. The polyester demand is mixed. It is recommended to hold long positions in PX, look for positive spread opportunities in PTA in the short - term, and short - sell the processing margin in the long - term [9]. - **Rubber**: The 2509 contract of rubber closed at 14,095 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. The raw material price is falling, and the inventory is increasing. The short - term market is range - bound. It is recommended to hold short positions above 14,000 and hold positive spreads in RU - NR [9]. - **Glass**: The fg09 contract of glass closed at 980 yuan/ton, down 3.7%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to sell call options above 1,250 [9][10]. - **PP**: The PP main contract declined slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is mixed. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [10]. - **MEG**: The MEG supply is at a high level, and the demand is mixed. The market is in a balanced state. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The oil price is in a range - bound state. The short - term demand is strong, but the supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [10]. - **Styrene**: The EB main contract declined slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [10][11]. - **Soda Ash**: The 09 contract of soda ash closed at 1,165 yuan/ton, down 2.8%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The market is in a bottom - range trading state. It is recommended to hedge and sell out - of - the - money call options above 1,400 [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For stock index futures, in the short - term, the stock index discount is reverting and the direction is unclear, so a neutral strategy can be considered; in the medium - to long - term, it is recommended to buy IF, IC, IM forward contracts on dips as the judgment of a bullish economy is maintained [1]. - For bond futures, the long - end has strong bullish power, and it is suggested to take a short - long and long - short strategy, buying T and TL on dips in the short - term and hedging T and TL on rallies in the medium - to long - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On June 30, the four major A - share stock indexes all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.59% to 3444.43 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.83% to 10465.12 points, the ChiNext Index up 1.35% to 2153.01 points, and the STAR 50 Index up 1.54% to 1003.41 points. Market turnover was 1517.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 58.3 billion yuan from the previous day. Defense and military (+4.35%), media (+2.83%), and communication (+1.9%) led the gains, while non - bank finance (-0.77%), banks (-0.34%), and transportation (-0.09%) led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IM>IC>IF>IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 4054/237/1126 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors' net inflows were 1.7 billion, - 5.7 billion, - 2.6 billion, and 6.6 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +5.4 billion, +6.0 billion, - 0.3 billion, and - 11.2 billion yuan respectively [1]. - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts were 135.58, 96.59, 42.88, and 22.99 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 15.24%, - 11.66%, - 7.78%, and - 6.05% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 13%, 11%, 16%, and 20% respectively [1]. 3.2 Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On June 30, the yields of bond futures all rose. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.311, up 3.32bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.464, up 2.88bps; the ten - year bond was 1.593, up 2.55bps; and the thirty - year bond was 1.937, up 2.49bps [2]. - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. For the two - year bond futures, the CTD bond is 250006.IB, with a yield change of +1bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.041, and an IRR of 1.73%; for the five - year bond futures, the CTD bond is 220027.IB, with a yield change of +0.37bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.033, and an IRR of 1.77%; for the ten - year bond futures, the CTD bond is 220010.IB, with a yield change of +0.77bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.108, and an IRR of 1.42%; for the thirty - year bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of +2.25bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.229, and an IRR of 1.13% [2]. - **Funding Situation**: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 331.5 billion yuan and withdrew 220.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 111 billion yuan [2]. 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that recent social activities and real - estate market sentiment have contracted [10].

Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures, including base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each commodity, suggesting different approaches such as buying, selling, or holding based on market conditions and trends. Summary by Commodity Category Base Metals - **Copper**: Market showed a slightly stronger oscillation yesterday. With a focus on US interest - rate cut expectations and a weakening US dollar, the tight supply of copper ore continued. London inventory decreased by 650 tons, and the spot was in short supply. The trading strategy is to maintain a buy - on - dips approach [1]. - **Aluminum**: The 2508 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed up 0.73% yesterday. The supply side saw a slight increase in operating capacity, while the demand side had a slight decline in the aluminum product开工 rate. Given the positive macro - environment but potential downward risks in fundamentals, a cautious bullish view is recommended [1]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract of alumina closed up 1.26% yesterday. Supply and demand were both stable. With the spot price stabilizing and the futures price converging to the basis, it is expected to oscillate within a range, and a wait - and - see approach is advised [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The 09 contract had a high - opening and oscillating performance on Monday. Affected by factory production cuts and coal price increases, the spot price stopped falling. With supply contraction in the northwest and potential restarts in polysilicon, the futures price may have limited upside. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2509 contract closed down 0.77% yesterday. Supply reached a record high in June, and demand was weak in the near - term. Inventory was at a high level. The near - term may see a slight rebound, but a wait - and - see or sell - on - rallies strategy is recommended [1][2]. - **Polysilicon**: The 08 contract had a high - level oscillation on Monday. Supply may increase, and demand is expected to decline in the third quarter. After the media's attention on the photovoltaic industry's competition, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract showed a weak oscillation. Inventory increased slightly, and supply - demand was relatively balanced but with a seasonal deterioration trend. The futures premium narrowed, and a short - selling strategy for the 2510 contract is recommended [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract had a weak oscillation. Supply and demand were neutral, with a marginal strengthening in the short - term but an over - supply situation in the medium - term. The futures was in a contango structure, and a short - selling strategy for the 2509 contract is recommended [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract had a weak oscillation. Supply was relatively loose but improving. The futures was at a premium, and a short - selling strategy for the 2509 contract is recommended [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans showed mixed performance overnight. Supply was loose in the near - term and normal in the US in the long - term. Demand was seasonally weak in US exports but supported by bio - diesel policies. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the focus is on US soybean production and tariff policies [3]. - **Corn**: The 2509 contract had a narrow - range oscillation, and the spot price rose. Supply - demand tightened, and the spot price is expected to be strong. The futures price is expected to oscillate upward [3]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract closed down 0.22%. With Brazil's ethanol policy having limited impact on sugar production, the domestic market is expected to follow the weak trend of raw sugar. A short - selling strategy in the futures market and selling call options are recommended [3]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price fell overnight, and the domestic Zhengzhou cotton price oscillated weakly. International supply conditions were good, and domestic inventory decreased. A wait - and - see approach with an oscillation - range strategy is recommended [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price fell slightly. Supply was marginally weakening but still high year - on - year, and demand increased in exports. It is in a seasonal weak phase, and attention should be paid to production and bio - diesel policies [3]. - **Eggs**: The 2508 contract rose, and the spot price was stable. Supply was high, and demand was affected by price and weather. The futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract was strong, and the spot price rose. In the short - term, the price is expected to be strong, but in the medium - term, supply will increase, and the price will decline [5]. - **Apples**: The main contract closed up slightly. The opening price of early - maturing varieties may support the futures price, but market expectations may change with supply increases. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [5]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract had a slight oscillation yesterday. Supply increased domestically while imports may decline. Demand improved marginally. In the short - term, it will oscillate weakly, and a short - selling strategy for far - month contracts on rallies is recommended [6]. - **PVC**: The v09 contract closed down 1.3%. Supply is expected to increase, and inventory decreased. A strategy of closing short positions and selling call options above 4950 is recommended [6][7]. - **PTA**: PX supply is at a medium - low level, and PTA supply decreased. Polyester load decreased slightly. PX long - positions can be held, and PTA positive spreads can be considered in the short - term, while short - selling processing margins on rallies is recommended in the long - term [7]. - **Rubber**: The RU2509 contract closed down 0.43%. Inventory in Qingdao increased unexpectedly. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with short - positions held above 14000 and positive spreads of RU - NR held [7]. - **Glass**: The fg09 contract closed down 2.2%. Supply is expected to increase, and inventory accumulated unexpectedly. Selling call options above 1250 is recommended [7]. - **PP**: The main contract had a slight oscillation. Supply increased, and demand was differentiated. In the short - term, it will oscillate weakly, and a short - selling strategy for far - month contracts on rallies is recommended [7][8]. - **MEG**: Supply is at a high level and may increase, and inventory is at a low level. With a balanced supply - demand situation, short - selling on rallies is recommended [8]. - **Crude Oil**: After the geopolitical premium subsided, the oil price entered an oscillation mode. In the short - term, the price has limited downside, but in the long - term, it is expected to be bearish due to over - supply. A short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [8]. - **Benzene Ethylene**: The main contract had a slight oscillation. Supply may increase in the future, and demand is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and a short - selling strategy for far - month contracts on rallies is recommended [8][9]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa09 contract closed down 2.4%. Supply increased, and inventory accumulated at a high level. The market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and selling out - of - the - money call options above 1400 is recommended [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Report's Core View - International gold prices are under short - term pressure, and the rise in silver prices is unsustainable. International gold prices are oscillating under pressure, and international silver prices are tending to weaken. Platinum and palladium first rose and then fell, with palladium's decline more obvious than platinum's. The price decline space of gold is limited, the high price of silver is unsustainable, and platinum and palladium prices may experience sharp rises and falls [1][8][11][27][28][29] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Price Fluctuation Driving Factors - On June 24, 2025, the cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel and its supporters led to a rapid decline in international gold prices. On June 26, Trump's consideration of announcing Powell's successor might weaken the US dollar in the short - term, causing international gold prices to strengthen slightly. On June 27, the cease - fire between Israel and Iran further reduced market uncertainty, resulting in a rapid decline in gold prices [6] 3.2 Market Price Trends - International gold prices are oscillating under pressure, and international silver prices are tending to weaken. Platinum and palladium first rose and then fell, with palladium's decline more obvious than platinum's [8][11] 3.3 Market - Related Important Data - COMEX gold inventory continues to decline, while SHFE gold inventory keeps rising. China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for 7 consecutive months since November 2024, and as of the end of May 2025, its gold reserves reached 73.83 million ounces (about 2296.37 tons). The gold - buying actions of central banks around the world are an important support for international gold prices [18][24] 3.4 Market Short - term Outlook - The price decline space of gold is limited as the cease - fire between Israel and Iran eases the situation in the Middle East and reduces global risk - aversion sentiment. The recent rise in silver is mainly driven by speculative funds and lacks industrial fundamentals support, so the high price is unsustainable. Platinum and palladium belong to a more segmented precious metals market, and their prices are more sensitive to capital inflows and outflows, so sharp rises and falls need to be prevented [27][28][29]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Short - term: The regression of the stock index discount is occurring, and the current direction is unclear. A neutral strategy can be considered. In the near - term, there is a risk of a decline in micro - cap stocks, which may drag down the IC and IM indices, so caution is advised. For bond futures, long - end bulls are strong, and a strategy of short - term long and long - term short is recommended [3][4]. - Medium - to long - term: The report maintains the judgment of going long on the economy. Buying the IF, IC, and IM forward contracts at low prices is recommended [3]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On June 27, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.7% to close at 3424.23 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.34% to close at 10378.55 points; the ChiNext Index rose 0.47% to close at 2124.34 points; the STAR 50 Index fell 0.18% to close at 988.21 points. Market turnover was 15,757 billion yuan, a decrease of 475 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, non - ferrous metals (+2.17%), communications (+1.79%), and textile and apparel (+1.23%) led the gains; banks (-2.95%), public utilities (-1.01%), and food and beverages (-0.8%) led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IM>IC>IF>IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 3,379/267/1,771 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 37, - 117, - 23, and 177 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +68, +49, - 55, and - 62 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 102.94, 73.93, 39.36, and 27.57 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 11.39%, - 8.76%, - 6.97%, and - 7.07% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 28%, 19%, 18%, and 17% respectively [2]. - The table shows the performance of various stock index futures contracts, including price changes, trading volume, open interest, basis, and annualized basis yields [6]. 2. Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On June 26, the yields of treasury bond futures declined across the board. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.355, down 1.5 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.465, down 1.75 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.578, down 0.55 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 1.91, down 0.50 bps [3]. - For the current active 2509 contracts, the CTD bonds of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had yield changes of - 1.5 bps, - 1.75 bps, - 0.55 bps, and - 0.50 bps respectively [3]. - The table shows the performance of various treasury bond futures contracts and spot bonds, including price changes, trading volume, open interest, and other information [8]. - The figure shows the term structure of treasury bond spot prices [9][10] 3. Short - term Funding Rate Market Changes - The table shows the changes in short - term capital interest rates, including SHIBOR overnight, DR001, SHIBOR one - week, and DR007, comparing the current price, yesterday's price, one - week ago, and one - month ago [12] 4. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that recent social activities and real estate sentiment have contracted [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - environment shows positive signs with the easing expectation of global tariff frictions and the decline of the US dollar index, but some commodities face fundamental pressures and potential risks [2]. - Most commodities are expected to show an oscillatory trend in the short - term, and the medium - and long - term supply - demand patterns of some commodities will gradually become more relaxed [2][7][8][9]. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum factory maintains high - load production, with a slight increase in operating capacity and a slight decrease in the aluminum product start - up rate. Although the macro - environment is favorable, the fundamentals face the dual pressures of weakening demand and weakening cost support, so it is recommended to be cautiously bullish [2]. - **Alumina**: The alumina factory's production is stable, with a slight increase in operating capacity. The electrolytic aluminum factory maintains high - load production. With the weak operation of the US dollar index and the strengthening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the alumina futures price is expected to oscillate within a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by factory production cuts and coal price increases, the price rebounded. The supply may increase in the future, and the demand has some uncertainties. After the futures price rebounds, the rebound amplitude may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The domestic supply elasticity is greater than the demand elasticity. The production is expected to reach a new high in June, and the inventory will continue to accumulate. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate and rebound, and it is recommended to wait and see or short at high prices above 65,000 yuan [2]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price is affected by the cost - end and the production situation. The short - term capital attention is high, and it is recommended to wait and see if there are anti - involution actions in the industry [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The supply - demand of steel is relatively balanced, with a narrowing futures premium and high valuation. It is expected that the steel futures and spot prices will continue to oscillate this week, and it is recommended to close short positions [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand is neutral, and the medium - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The valuation is neutral. It is expected that the iron ore futures and spot prices will continue to oscillate this week, and it is recommended to close short positions and hold long positions [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The overall supply - demand is relatively loose, but the fundamentals are gradually improving. The futures are slightly at a premium to the spot. It is expected that the coking coal futures and spot prices will continue to oscillate this week, and it is recommended to close short positions and hold long positions [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term US soybeans are in a range - bound state. The domestic soybean arrivals will be large later, and the unilateral trend follows the international cost end. It is necessary to focus on the USDA report [4][5]. - **Corn**: The supply - demand this year has tightened marginally. The spot price is expected to be strong, and the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [5]. - **White Sugar**: The Brazilian sugar - making ratio is expected to remain high. The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly later, and it is recommended to short in the futures market, sell call options, and lock the futures price for sugar users [5]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton export sales have decreased, and the domestic downstream start - up rate has declined. It is recommended to buy at low prices and adopt a range - bound strategy [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The supply in the production area is weakening marginally, and the demand for exports has increased. The short - term supply - demand is increasing, and it is in a relatively balanced state. It is recommended to pay attention to the production in the production area and the biodiesel policy [5]. - **Eggs**: The supply is high, and the demand is affected by low prices. The cost provides support, and the futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - **Hogs**: The short - term pig price is expected to be strong, and the medium - term supply will continue to increase, and the price center will gradually move down. It is recommended to pay attention to the enterprise's slaughter rhythm and secondary fattening trends [6]. - **Apples**: The early - maturing varieties' opening prices will affect the futures price. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The domestic supply is increasing, and the import is expected to decrease slightly. The demand is improving marginally. The short - term market will oscillate, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices in the long - term [7]. - **PVC**: The fundamentals change little. The supply will increase in the third quarter, and the social inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to sell call options above 4,950 yuan [7]. - **PTA**: The short - term supply of PX and PTA is decreasing, and the inventory is decreasing. The polyester load has decreased slightly. It is recommended to hold long positions in PX, pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in PTA in the short - term, and short the processing margin at high prices in the long - term [8]. - **Rubber**: The supply is increasing steadily, and the downstream demand has some resilience. The short - term market will oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see or short lightly above 14,000 yuan, and hold positive arbitrage positions in RU - NR [8]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand is weak. The supply will increase in July, and the inventory is difficult to digest. It is recommended to short at high prices for hedging [8]. - **PP**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is differentiated. The short - term market will oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices in the long - term [8]. - **MEG**: The supply is at a high level and has room for further increase. The inventory is at a low level. The polyester load has decreased slightly. It is recommended to short at high prices in the short - term [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The short - term demand support is strong, but the medium - and long - term supply is expected to be in surplus. It is recommended to short at high prices [9]. - **Styrene**: The supply inventory is accumulating slightly in the short - term, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the export demand. The short - term market will oscillate, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices in the long - term [9]. - **Ethylene Benzene (EB)**: The short - term pure benzene and styrene inventories are accumulating slightly. The demand is affected by the profit situation and export prospects. The short - term market will oscillate, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices in the long - term [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is at a high level, and the downstream demand has some problems. It is in a weak - balance state, and it is recommended to hedge at high prices [9][10].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - **Stock Indexes**: On June 26, the four major A-share stock indexes adjusted moderately. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.22% to close at 3448.45 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.48% to 10343.48 points, the ChiNext Index declined 0.66% to 2114.43 points, and the STAR 50 Index decreased 0.57% to 989.97 points. Market turnover was 1623.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.3 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - **Industry Sectors**: Banking (+1.01%), communication (+0.77%), and national defense and military industry (+0.55%) led the gains, while the automobile (-1.37%), non-bank finance (-1.2%), and pharmaceutical biology (-1.05%) sectors led the losses [2]. - **Stock Index Futures Basis**: The basis of the next-month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 91.19, 67.45, 37.82, and 29.27 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of -9.86%, -7.81%, -6.48%, and -7.22% respectively, and three-year historical quantiles of 35%, 24%, 20%, and 17% respectively [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On June 26, the yields of treasury bond futures showed mixed changes. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two-year bond was 1.303, down 0.14 bps from the previous day; the five-year bond was 1.461, up 0.36 bps; the ten-year bond was 1.585, up 0.37 bps; and the thirty-year bond was 1.923, down 0.37 bps [3]. - **Funding Situation**: In open market operations, the central bank injected 509.3 billion yuan and withdrew 203.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 305.8 billion yuan [4]. 2. Trading Strategies - **Stock Index Futures**: In the short term, the stock index discount is expected to converge, and the current direction is unclear. A neutral strategy can be considered. In the medium to long term, the report maintains a bullish view on the economy. It is recommended to allocate IF, IC, and IM forward contracts on dips. Regarding near-month contracts, there is a risk of a decline in micro-cap stocks, which may drag down the IC and IM indexes, so caution is advised [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On the futures side, the long-term bullish force is strong, possibly betting on a further decline in future policy interest rates. It is recommended to take short-term long positions and long-term short positions. Buy T and TL contracts on dips in the short term and hedge at high levels in the medium to long term [4]. 3. Economic Data - High-frequency data shows that recent social activities and real estate market sentiment have contracted [12].