2025年07月27日 • 研究员-马芸 • mayun@cmschina.com.cn • 联系电话：18682466799 • 资格证号： Z0018708 目录 01 周度回顾 本周观点 02 期货研究报告 | 商品研究 金属短期承压不改上行方向 ——20250727招商期货基本金属铜锡周报 品种分析：铜锡 03 2 01 周度回顾 3 周度回顾 | | | 伦铜指数 | 伦铝指数 | 伦锌指数 | 伦铅指数 | 伦镍指数 | 伦锡指数 | | 沪铜指数 | 沪铝指数 | | 沪锌指数 | 沪铅指数 | 沪镍指数 | 沪锡指数 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 过去一年 | | 8.5% | 17.1% | 7.2% | -2.0% | -4.1% | 16.1% | 过去一年 | 7.3% | 7.7% | | -0.1% | -6.1% | -5.1% | 8.8% | | 过去一月 | | 0.7% | 2.5% | 4.4% | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. It is recommended to allocate long positions in various forward contracts on dips as stock index long - position substitution has certain excess returns [3]. - With the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to conduct high - level hedging for medium - and long - term T and TL contracts [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On July 28, A - share four major stock indexes all rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.12% to 3597.94 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.44% to 11217.58 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.96% to 2362.6 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.09% to 1055.11 points. Market turnover was 17,662 billion yuan, a decrease of 493 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, national defense and military industry (+1.86%), non - bank finance (+1.51%), and pharmaceutical biology (+1.47%) led the gains; coal (-2.6%), steel (-1.41%), and transportation (-1.38%) led the losses [2]. - From the perspective of market strength, IC>IM>IH>IF. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 2,781, 197, and 2,436 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had net capital inflows of - 28 billion, - 85 billion, 16 billion, and 97 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +116 billion, +81 billion, - 16 billion, and - 181 billion yuan respectively [2]. - For stock index futures, the basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 127.98, 101.42, 13.82, and - 3.03 points respectively. The annualized basis yields were - 11.89%, - 10.02%, - 2.09%, and 0.68% respectively, and the three - year historical quantiles were 26%, 14%, 38%, and 53% respectively [2]. (2) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On July 28, the yields of treasury bond futures declined. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.402, down 2.53 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.57, down 3.26 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.668, down 3.09 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 2.014, down 3.21 bps [3]. - For the current active 2509 contract, the CTD bond of the 2 - year treasury bond futures was 250006.IB, with a yield change of - 1.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0, and an IRR of 1.58%; the 5 - year was 240020.IB, with a yield change of - 2.5 bps, a net basis of 0.023, and an IRR of 1.42%; the 10 - year was 250007.IB, with a yield change of - 1.75 bps, a net basis of 0.026, and an IRR of 1.39%; the 30 - year was 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 2.25 bps, a net basis of 0.068, and an IRR of 1.2% [3]. - In terms of the money supply, the central bank injected 4,958 billion yuan and withdrew 1,707 billion yuan in the open market, with a net injection of 3,251 billion yuan [4]. (3) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the manufacturing industry's prosperity has recovered recently, with the industrial added value in June exceeding the same period [12]. - Based on the domestic medium - term data tracking chart, positive scores represent an improvement in prosperity, negative scores represent a weakening of prosperity, and zero scores represent little change in prosperity [14][15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, suggesting going long on gold; due to the strong US economy and industrial silver's long - term downward trend, it is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies [1]. - For aluminum, although industry policies are favorable, the price increase is limited in the off - season, and the price may fluctuate, so it is advisable to wait and see [2]. - Alumina's operating capacity is increasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly, so it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - For zinc, due to supply pressure and weak consumption in the off - season, it is recommended to short on rallies [2][3]. - For lead, it is recommended to operate within a range and go short - term long on pullbacks [3]. - For industrial silicon, the market may turn to wide - range fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - For lithium carbonate, the price is expected to fluctuate widely between 65,000 - 80,000, and it is recommended to participate cautiously [3]. - For polysilicon, the market may fluctuate widely between 48,000 - 53,000, and it is advisable to wait and see [3][4]. - For steel products, it is recommended to take profits on long positions and short the RB2601 contract for aggressive investors [4]. - For iron ore, it is advisable to wait and see and take profits on long positions [4]. - For coking coal, it is advisable to wait and see and exit long positions [4]. - For soybean meal, the US soybeans are in a volatile range, and it is necessary to focus on Sino - US economic and trade talks,产区 weather, and tariff policies [5]. - For corn, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. - For sugar, it is recommended to short on rallies in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - For cotton, it is advisable to wait and see and adopt a range - trading strategy between 13,800 - 14,400 [6]. - For logs, it is advisable to wait and see [6]. - For palm oil, it is short - term strong, and it is recommended to allocate more in the sector, focusing on产区 production and biodiesel policies [6]. - For eggs, the futures price is expected to fluctuate [6][7]. - For live pigs, the futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [7]. - For LLDPE, it may fluctuate in the short term and is recommended to short on rallies in the long - term [8]. - For PVC, it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - For PTA, it is recommended to take profits on PX and short on rallies for PTA [8]. - For rubber, it is expected to fluctuate in a range, and it is advisable to wait and see [9]. - For glass, it is recommended to go long on dips [9]. - For PP, it may fluctuate weakly in the short term and is recommended to short on rallies in the long - term [9]. - For MEG, it is recommended to short when the supply - demand is weak [9]. - For crude oil, due to the uncertainty of US sanctions on Russia, it is advisable to wait and see [9][10]. - For styrene, it may fluctuate weakly in the short term and is recommended to short on rallies in the long - term [10]. - For soda ash, it is recommended to wait and see or try short - selling call options [10]. 3. Summaries According to Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, precious metal prices weakened, with both gold and silver falling. The US dollar index rose by more than 1% during the session [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The EU - US trade agreement is seen as beneficial to the US, the US Treasury plans to borrow nearly $1.01 trillion in the third quarter, and the auction of 5 - year US Treasury bonds was unexpectedly weak. Gold ETFs in China had outflows, and inventories of gold and silver in various exchanges increased [1]. - **Trading Strategies**: Long on gold and short - sell on rallies for precious metals [1]. Base Metals Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2509 contract decreased by 0.70% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintain high - load production, but the off - season leads to a slight decline in the operating rate of aluminum products [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see due to limited price increase space [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 5.40% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina is increasing, and electrolytic aluminum smelters maintain high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see as the price may fluctuate weakly [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the zinc 2508 contract decreased by 1.01% compared to the previous trading day, and the social inventory increased [2][3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure persists, and consumption is weak in the off - season, with an increasing risk of a short squeeze [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short on rallies [3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the lead 2508 contract decreased by 0.27% compared to the previous trading day, and the social inventory increased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is tight in some areas, and consumption has low - level resilience, with tightened spot liquidity [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Operate within a range and go short - term long on pullbacks [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main contract closed at the limit - down price, with a decrease in positions and an increase in warehouse receipts [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased last week, and demand was mixed [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see as the market may fluctuate widely [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract decreased by 7.98%, with capital outflows [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased slightly, demand improved marginally, and inventory reached a new high [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Participate cautiously as the price may fluctuate widely [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main contract decreased, with a decrease in positions and stable warehouse receipts [3][4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased slightly, and demand was weak [3][4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see as the market may fluctuate widely [3][4]. Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The main contract of rebar fluctuated sideways [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Building material inventory increased slightly, and the overall supply - demand of steel products was balanced with structural differentiation [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Take profits on long positions and short the RB2601 contract for aggressive investors [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main contract of iron ore fluctuated sideways [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, demand was stable, and the supply - demand was neutral to strong [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see and take profits on long positions [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main contract of coking coal fell to the limit and continued to decline at night [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - demand was relatively loose but improving, and the futures was over - valued [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see and exit long positions [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans fell [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was loose both in the near - term and long - term, and demand was uncertain [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Focus on Sino - US economic and trade talks, and follow the international cost in the medium - term [5]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract was weak, and the spot price fluctuated [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was tight, but substitutes and imports affected the price [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: The futures price may fluctuate weakly [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The 09 contract rose slightly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: International supply pressure and domestic macro - sentiment affected the price [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short on rallies in the futures market and sell call options [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: US cotton futures were weak, and domestic cotton futures were strong [6]. - **Fundamentals**: International supply and demand and domestic downstream conditions were mixed [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see and trade within a range [6]. Logs - **Market Performance**: The 09 contract rose slightly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Market activity increased, but the price was mainly affected by macro - factors [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see [6]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil fell [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased seasonally, and demand decreased [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Strong in the short - term, allocate more in the sector [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract and the spot price fell [6][7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased, and demand may increase seasonally, but cold - storage eggs limited the increase [6][7]. - **Trading Strategies**: The futures price may fluctuate [6][7]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract and the spot price fell [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Consumption was weak seasonally, and supply pressure increased [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: The futures price may fluctuate and adjust [7]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main contract fell slightly, and the import window was closed [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, and demand improved slightly in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Fluctuate in the short - term, short on rallies in the long - term [8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V09 contract fell by 1.4% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply will increase, and inventory accumulated [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see [8]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PX and PTA prices were at certain levels, and the spot basis was - 7 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure was high, and polyester demand was weak [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Take profits on PX and short on rallies for PTA [8]. Rubber - **Market Performance**: The main contract fell by 2.52% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Inventory increased, and downstream factories replenished stocks [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: Fluctuate in a range, wait and see [9]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The fg09 contract fell by 5% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply may increase, inventory decreased, and demand improved [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go long on dips [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main contract fell slightly, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, and demand was differentiated [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: Fluctuate weakly in the short - term, short on rallies in the long - term [9]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The spot price and basis were at certain levels [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was high, and demand was weak [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short when the supply - demand is weak [9]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The price rose sharply due to supply risks [9][10]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC's decision was pending, and US demand was mixed [9][10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see due to sanction uncertainties [9][10]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main contract fell slightly, and the import window was closed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply may increase, and demand was under pressure [10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Fluctuate weakly in the short - term, short on rallies in the long - term [10]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The 09 contract fell by 4% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased slightly, inventory was redistributed, and demand was uncertain [10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see or short - sell call options [10].

铁矿石： "反内卷"环境下的再平衡 2025年7月 ·研究员-游洋, CFA ·联系电话：13426249707 ·youyang@cmschina.com.cn ·执业资格号: Z0019846 2025年7月 WIND，招商期货 上半年跌幅：焦煤（28.2%）> 螺纹（9.4%）> 热卷(8.5%) > 铁矿（7.9%） 期货研究报告 | 商品研究 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Dec-07 Aug-08 Apr-09 Dec-09 Aug-10 Apr-11 Dec-11 Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13 Aug-14 Apr-15 Dec-15 Aug-16 Apr-17 （亿美元） 中国对东盟、非洲、拉美、俄罗斯出口当月值 中国对其他地区出口当月值 中国对东盟、非洲、拉美、俄罗斯出口当月占比（右轴） 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec x 0.01 （万吨） 钢材净出口（含钢坯） 2021 2022 2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, the report maintains a long - term bullish view on the economy. It suggests that using stock indices as a long - position substitute can yield certain excess returns, and recommends buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [2]. - For treasury bond futures, due to the upward trend in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to conduct high - level hedging for T and TL contracts in the medium - to - long term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On July 23, the four major A - share stock indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01% to 3582.3 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.37% to 11059.04 points; the ChiNext Index fell 0.01% to 2310.67 points; the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 0.45% to 1020.86 points. Market turnover was 1898.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.3 billion yuan from the previous day. Non - bank finance, beauty care, and household appliances led the gains, while building materials, national defense and military industry, and machinery led the losses. In terms of market strength, IH > IF > IC > IM. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 1269, 121, and 4025 respectively. Net capital inflows from institutions, main players, large - scale investors, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 17 billion, - 23.8 billion, 1.2 billion, and 39.7 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 3.2 billion, - 2.3 billion, - 2 billion, and + 7.5 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 107.22, 76.76, 10.57, and - 1.6 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 9.43%, - 7.2%, - 1.49%, and 0.33%. Their three - year historical quantiles were 40%, 29%, 43%, and 49% respectively [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long - term, maintain a bullish view on the economy, and recommend buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [2]. (2) Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On July 23, the yields of treasury bond futures rose across the board. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.39, up 2.26 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.553, up 1.93 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.65, up 1.59 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 1.991, up 0.79 bps [2]. - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250006.IB, with a yield change of + 2.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.022, and an IRR of 1.63%. For the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 240020.IB, with a yield change of + 1.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.018, and an IRR of 1.6%. For the 10 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 220010.IB, with a yield change of + 2 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.021, and an IRR of 1.62%. For the 30 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210014.IB, with a yield change of - 0.82 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.093, and an IRR of 1.02% [2]. - **Funding Situation**: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 150.5 billion yuan and withdrew 520.1 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 369.6 billion yuan [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the upward trend in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to conduct high - level hedging for T and TL contracts in the medium - to - long term [2]. (3) Economic Data High - frequency data shows that the real estate sector has recently seen a contraction in prosperity, while the manufacturing sector has recovered in prosperity after the industrial added value in June exceeded the same period [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views - The overall commodity futures market shows a complex situation with different trends and trading strategies for various commodities. Some commodities are expected to be volatile, while others have specific supply - demand and price trends. For example, some metals are affected by supply - demand fundamentals and geopolitical factors, and agricultural products are influenced by weather, policy, and seasonal factors [1][5]. Summaries by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: Yesterday, copper prices fluctuated weakly. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the demand shows a differentiation. The short - term trading strategy is to view copper prices as fluctuating strongly, as the US dollar index is consolidating at a key support level [1]. - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum plant maintains high - load production, and the demand is in the traditional off - season but with a slight increase in the weekly aluminum product start - up rate. With the upcoming policy and cost support, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to buy on dips [1]. - **Alumina**: The production of alumina plants is stable, and the demand from electrolytic aluminum plants is stable. The bullish sentiment is fading, and the price is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to policy and position structure changes [1]. - **Zinc**: The supply pressure of zinc ingots continues, and the consumption is weak in the off - season. There is a risk of a short squeeze in the LME. The short - term strategy is to wait and see, and the long - term view is bearish [1]. - **Lead**: The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and there is a risk of a short squeeze in the LME. The trading strategy is to operate within a range [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The supply is expected to increase in July, and the demand is expected to improve marginally. The price is expected to turn into a wide - range fluctuation, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Tin**: The supply side focuses on the resumption of production in Wa State, and the demand shows a situation of weak supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the short - squeeze risk under the ultra - low inventory in London [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The supply and demand of building materials are weak, but the inventory pressure is small. The overall supply and demand of steel are balanced, but there is a significant structural differentiation. It is recommended to wait and see, and multi - orders should be closed at an appropriate time [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the demand is relatively strong. The inventory accumulation may be slower than the seasonal pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, and multi - orders should be closed at an appropriate time. A long position in the 2605 volume - to - ore ratio can be arranged [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply and demand are relatively loose, but the fundamentals are slowly improving. The futures price is overvalued. It is recommended to wait and see, and multi - orders should be closed at an appropriate time [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The international soybean supply is expected to be loose, and the US soybean export demand is uncertain. The domestic soybean arrival is large, and the demand is high. It is recommended to follow the international cost side and pay attention to weather and tariff policies [5]. - **Corn**: The remaining grain is scarce, and the demand for domestic corn is affected by substitutes. The price is expected to fluctuate after a continuous decline [5]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract rose. The domestic sugar market is affected by imports and macro - sentiment. The later price of the 09 contract is expected to be weakly volatile [5]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton growth and demand show different trends, and the domestic cotton inventory is decreasing. The trading strategy is to buy on dips and operate within a range [5][6]. - **Palm Oil**: The supply in Malaysia is in the seasonal increase period, and the demand shows a decline in exports but support in year - on - year demand. It is recommended to be bullish in the short - term and focus on production and biodiesel policies [6]. - **Eggs**: High temperatures reduce the egg - laying rate, and the demand from food factories may increase seasonally, but the cold - storage egg inventory is high. The egg price is expected to be strong in the short - term [6]. - **Pigs**: The consumption of pigs is seasonally weak, and the supply is increasing. The pig price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [6]. - **Apples**: The opening price of new - season early - maturing apples has increased, and the market is waiting for the results of bag - removal. The current consumption is light, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The domestic supply is increasing, and the import is expected to decrease. The demand is improving in the post - off - season of agricultural film. The short - term trading strategy is to expect fluctuations, and the long - term strategy is to short far - month contracts on rallies [7]. - **PVC**: The supply of PVC is expected to increase, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to close short - positions and wait for policy implementation [8]. - **Rubber**: The raw material price is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate around 15,000, and attention should be paid to the pressure level at 15,300 [8]. - **Glass**: The glass supply is expected to increase, and the inventory is decreasing. The trading strategy is to wait and see for policy implementation [8]. - **PP**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is differentiated. The short - term is expected to fluctuate, and the long - term strategy is to short far - month contracts on rallies [8]. - **Crude Oil**: The supply is increasing, and the demand has short - term support but long - term risks. The trading strategy is to short on rallies, especially near SC530 yuan/barrel [9]. - **Styrene**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is under pressure. The short - term is expected to fluctuate, and the long - term strategy is to short far - month contracts on rallies [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply and demand of soda ash have no substantial improvement, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to wait and see [9].

金融研究 2025年7月23日 星期三 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：7 月 22 日，A 股四大股指全线强势，其中上证指数上涨 0.62%，报收 3581.86 点；深成 指上涨 0.84%，报收 11099.83 点；创业板指上涨 0.61%，报收 2310.86 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.83%， 报收 1016.27 点。市场成交 19,286 亿元，较前日增加 2,015 亿元。行业板块方面，煤炭(+6.18%)， 建筑材料(+4.49%)，建筑装饰(+3.38%)涨幅居前；银行(-0.98%)，计算机(-0.73%)，通信(-0.43%)跌 幅居前。从市场强弱看，IC>IF>IH>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,539/152/2,723。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-138、-215、31、322 亿元，分别变动-129、-88、+77、+139 亿元。 股指期货 国债期货 现券：目前活跃合约为 2509 合约，2 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 250006.IB，收益率变动+0bps，对应 净基差-0.014，IRR1.56%；5 年期国债期货 CTD ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, suggesting going long on gold; for silver, short - term risk avoidance is recommended, but there are still short - selling opportunities in the long run [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to go long at low prices; for alumina, close attention should be paid to policy implementation and other factors; for lithium carbonate, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [1][2][3]. - For the black industry, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach, and for some products, long positions should be closed at appropriate times [4]. - For agricultural products, soybean meal lacks a real driving force; corn is expected to fluctuate; sugar is recommended to go short; cotton is recommended to go long at low prices; palm oil is short - term strong; eggs are expected to be strong; pork is expected to fluctuate and adjust; and apples are recommended to wait and see [6][7]. - For energy and chemical products, LLDPE is short - term strong and long - term supply is expected to be loose; PVC is recommended to wait and see; PX is recommended to be long - allocated, and PTA is recommended to short - sell processing fees; glass is recommended to wait and see; PP is short - term volatile and long - term supply is expected to be loose; MEG is expected to be weak; crude oil is recommended to go short at high prices; EB is short - term volatile and long - term supply is expected to be loose; and soda ash is recommended to wait and see [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals Gold - Market performance: On Tuesday, precious metal prices continued to strengthen, with the London gold price breaking through $3400 [1]. - Fundamentals: Trump announced trade agreements, and there were changes in gold inventories in different markets [1]. - Trading strategy: The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, suggesting going long on gold [1]. Silver - Market performance: Silver rose to $39 [1]. - Fundamentals: Trump's tariff policies and inventory changes [1]. - Trading strategy: Short - term risk avoidance is recommended for long positions, and there are long - term short - selling opportunities [1]. Base Metals Aluminum - Market performance: The electrolytic aluminum contract rose 0.29% to 20,840 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: High - load production on the supply side and a slight increase in terminal demand [2]. - Trading strategy: It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [2]. Alumina - Market performance: The alumina contract rose 3.75% to 3386 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: Stable production on the supply side and high - load consumption on the demand side [2]. - Trading strategy: Pay close attention to policy implementation and other factors [2]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The main contract rose 2.71% to 72,880 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to improve marginally [3]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The main contract rose 80 yuan/ton to 3302 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: Supply and demand are balanced, and the valuation is slightly high [4]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, and close long positions at appropriate times [4]. Iron Ore - Market performance: The main contract rose 9.5 yuan/ton to 818.5 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: Supply and demand are marginally neutral to strong, and the valuation is neutral [4]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, and close long positions at appropriate times, and consider a long position in the 2605 volume - to - ore ratio [4]. Coking Coal - Market performance: The main contract rose 103 yuan/ton to 1135.5 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: Supply and demand are relatively loose, and the futures valuation is high [4]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, and close long positions at appropriate times [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market performance: CBOT soybeans fell slightly [6]. - Fundamentals: The supply is expected to be loose, and the demand has uncertainties [6]. - Trading strategy: There is no real driving force, and attention should be paid to weather and policies [6]. Corn - Market performance: The 2509 contract fluctuated after rising [6]. - Fundamentals: Supply and demand are tightening, and there are both positive and negative factors [6]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate [6]. Sugar - Market performance: The 09 contract fell 0.1% to 5819 yuan/ton [6]. - Fundamentals: The domestic and foreign markets rebounded jointly, and there are profit margins [6]. - Trading strategy: Go short in the futures market [6]. Cotton - Market performance: The price stopped falling and rebounded [6]. - Fundamentals: There are differences in the growth situation at home and abroad, and the inventory is decreasing [6]. - Trading strategy: Go long at low prices [6]. Palm Oil - Market performance: It continued to be strong [6]. - Fundamentals: Supply is weakening, and demand has support [6]. - Trading strategy: It is short - term strong, and attention should be paid to production and policies [6]. Eggs - Market performance: The 2509 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price rose [6]. - Fundamentals: Supply is decreasing, and demand is increasing seasonally, but the cold - storage egg inventory is high [6]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to be strong [6]. Pork - Market performance: The 2509 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price fell [7]. - Fundamentals: Consumption is weakening seasonally, and supply is increasing [7]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [7]. Apples - Market performance: The main contract rose 0.08% to 7929 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamentals: The price of early - maturing apples has risen, and the final output is uncertain [7]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [7]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market performance: The main contract continued to rise slightly [7]. - Fundamentals: Supply is increasing, and demand is improving [7]. - Trading strategy: It is short - term strong and long - term supply is expected to be loose [7]. PVC - Market performance: The V09 contract rose 1.2% [7]. - Fundamentals: Affected by coal policies, supply is expected to increase, and inventory is accumulating [7]. - Trading strategy: Close short positions and wait and see [7]. PTA - Market performance: The PX price is 843 dollars/ton, and the PTA spot price is 4785 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamentals: PX supply is medium, PTA supply is increasing, and polyester demand is weak [7]. - Trading strategy: Go long on PX and short - sell PTA processing fees [7]. Glass - Market performance: The fg09 contract rose 2.8% [8]. - Fundamentals: Affected by coal policies, supply is expected to increase, and inventory is decreasing [8]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [8]. PP - Market performance: The main contract continued to rebound slightly [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply is increasing, and demand is differentiated [8]. - Trading strategy: It is short - term volatile and long - term supply is expected to be loose [8]. MEG - Market performance: The spot price is 4490 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply is high, and demand is weak [8]. - Trading strategy: It is expected to be weak, and short - sell at high prices [8]. Crude Oil - Market performance: The price fell slightly [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply is increasing, and demand has short - term support but long - term risks [8]. - Trading strategy: Go short at high prices [8]. EB - Market performance: The main contract fluctuated slightly [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply is expected to increase, and demand has uncertainties [9]. - Trading strategy: It is short - term volatile and long - term supply is expected to be loose [9]. Soda Ash - Market performance: The sa09 contract rose 3.8% [9]. - Fundamentals: Affected by policies, supply may decrease, and demand is weak [9]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The gold market is supported by factors such as the Fed's potential rate cut and geopolitical uncertainties, with a recommendation to go long on gold. The silver market shows short - term strength but offers long - term shorting opportunities [1]. - The basic metals market has different trends. Aluminum and alumina are expected to be volatile and strong, zinc is short - term neutral and long - term bearish, lead is range - bound, industrial silicon and lithium carbonate are recommended to go long under certain conditions, and polysilicon has intensified short - term market competition [1][2][3]. - The black industry shows a balanced supply - demand situation for steel but with obvious structural differentiation. It is recommended to be cautious in trading, with some opportunities for short - term chasing [4]. - The agricultural product market has various trends. Soybean meal follows international costs, corn is expected to be volatile, sugar is recommended to go short, cotton is recommended to go long at low prices, palm oil is short - term strong, eggs are expected to be strong, and pork is bearish in the medium - term [5][6]. - The energy and chemical market has different outlooks. LLDPE is short - term strong and long - term bearish, PVC and glass are recommended to wait and see, PTA is recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA, rubber is short - term strong, PP is short - term volatile and long - term bearish, MEG is expected to be weak, and crude oil is recommended to go short at high prices [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: On Monday, precious metal prices strengthened, with COMEX gold up over 1% and silver up over 2% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The Fed may cut rates in July, and there are various geopolitical and economic events in the US. Gold and silver inventories in different regions have different changes [1]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go long on gold; short - term avoid risks in silver and long - term look for shorting opportunities [1]. Basic Metals Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The electrolytic aluminum contract rose 1.61% to 20,840 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: High - load production on the supply side and a slight increase in demand during the off - season [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect prices to be volatile and strong, and recommend going long at low prices [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The alumina contract rose 8.08% to 3,386 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Stable production on the supply side and high - load production of electrolytic aluminum on the demand side [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Pay attention to policy and supply - demand changes, and the market is in a multi - empty game [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The zinc contract rose 2.62% to 22,885 yuan/ton [2][3]. - **Fundamentals**: Increased supply and weak demand in the off - season, with a risk of a short squeeze [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term neutral and long - term bearish [3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The lead contract rose 0.83% to 16,960 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Low supply and demand, with a risk of a short squeeze [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Range - bound trading [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The contract rose 565 yuan/ton to 9,260 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Slight increase in supply and stable demand in different sectors [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go long at low prices, paying attention to production resumption and policies [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The contract rose 2.53% to 71,280 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Increased supply and demand, with high inventory [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term prices are likely to rise, and go long if high - capacity mines cut production [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The contract rose 1,810 yuan/ton to 45,660 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Slight increase in supply, inventory reduction, and weak demand [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Partially take profit on long positions due to intensified market competition [3]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The rebar contract rose 25 yuan/ton to 3,222 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Balanced supply - demand with structural differentiation and slightly high valuation [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Be cautious, with opportunities for short - term chasing and consider exiting arbitrage [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The iron ore contract rose 9 yuan/ton to 809 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Decreased supply and increased demand, with neutral valuation [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Be cautious, with opportunities for short - term chasing and long - position layout [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The coking coal contract rose 68.5 yuan/ton to 1,032.5 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Loose supply - demand with improving fundamentals and high valuation [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Be cautious and consider exiting long positions [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans fell overnight [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Abundant supply and variable demand [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Follow international costs and pay attention to weather and policies [5]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The corn contract continued to rebound [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Tightening supply - demand, affected by substitutes [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expected to be volatile [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The sugar contract fell 0.15% to 5,831 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Import pressure and weakening market sentiment [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: US cotton prices fell overnight [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Improving US cotton quality and changing domestic inventory [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go long at low prices and use range - bound strategies [6]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil fell [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Weakening supply and demand [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term strong, with attention to production and policies [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The egg contract continued to rebound [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Reduced supply and increased demand [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expected to be strong [6]. Pork - **Market Performance**: The pork contract rose [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Weakening demand and increasing supply [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Limited upside potential [6]. Apples - **Market Performance**: The apple contract rose 0.51% to 7,923 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Uncertain production and weak consumption [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see [7]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE contract rose slightly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Increasing domestic supply and improving demand [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term strong and long - term bearish [7]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The PVC contract rose 1.7% to 5,163 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Policy - driven with unchanged supply - demand and increasing inventory [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: Exit short positions and wait for policy implementation [7]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PX price was 842 dollars/ton, and PTA was 4,785 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Moderate PX supply, increasing PTA supply, and weak polyester demand [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go long on PX and short on PTA [7]. Rubber - **Market Performance**: The rubber contract rose 0.37% to 14,895 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Stable raw material prices and inventory reduction [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term strong, with attention to pressure levels [8]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The glass contract rose 2.9% to 1,178 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Policy - driven with weak fundamentals and inventory reduction [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see for policy implementation [8]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP contract rebounded slightly [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Increasing supply and differentiated demand [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term volatile and long - term bearish [8]. MEG - **Market Performance**: MEG price was 4,470 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: High supply, low inventory, and weak polyester demand [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expected to be weak, short at high prices [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices fell slightly and were in a narrow - range oscillation [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Increasing supply and changing demand, with inventory accumulation [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short at high prices, paying attention to supply - demand changes [9]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The styrene contract rebounded slightly [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Slight inventory changes and weak demand [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term volatile and long - term bearish [9]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The soda ash contract rose 2.7% to 1,308 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Policy - driven with high inventory and weak downstream demand [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see [9].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - **Stock Index**: On July 21, the four major A-share stock indexes were all strong. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.72% to close at 3,559.79 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.86% to close at 11,007.49 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.87% to close at 2,296.88 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.04% to close at 1,007.89 points. Market turnover was 1.7271 trillion yuan, an increase of 133.8 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, building materials (+6.06%), building decoration (+3.79%), and steel (+3.44%) led the gains; banks (-0.77%), composites (-0.34%), and computers (-0.31%) led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IC>IM>IF>IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 4,002/121/1,291 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of -9, -127, -46, and 18.2 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +12.6, -0.6, -8.2, and -3.8 billion yuan respectively [1]. - **Stock Index Futures Basis**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 149.06, 105.71, 20.81, and 1.04 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were -12.52%, -9.53%, -2.83%, and -0.21% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 23%, 16%, 32%, and 45% respectively [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On July 21, the yields of treasury bond futures rose across the board. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.363, up 1.19 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.513, up 1.69 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.613, up 1.21 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 1.958, up 2.78 bps [2]. - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250006.IB, with a yield change of +1.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.023, and an IRR of 1.63%; for the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 240020.IB, with a yield change of +1.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.031, and an IRR of 1.68%; for the 10 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250007.IB, with a yield change of +1.8 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.041, and an IRR of 1.75%; for the 30 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of +2.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.033, and an IRR of 1.33% [2]. - **Funding Situation**: In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 170.7 billion yuan and withdrew 226.2 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 55.5 billion yuan [2]. 2. Trading Strategies - **Stock Index Futures**: In the medium - to - long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index futures as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies for medium - and long - term investors [2]. 3. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the real - estate market has recently contracted in terms of prosperity, while the manufacturing industry has seen a recovery in prosperity as the industrial added value in June exceeded the same period [11]. 4. Tables and Figures - **Table 1**: Shows the performance of stock index futures and spot markets, including details such as code, name, price change percentage, current price, price change, trading volume, trading value, open interest, daily position change, settlement price, basis, and annualized basis yield [6]. - **Table 2**: Displays the performance of treasury bond futures and spot markets, including information on code, name, price change percentage, current price, trading volume, trading value, open interest, daily position change, settlement price, net basis, and CTD bond implied interest rate [7]. - **Table 3**: Presents the changes in the short - end funding rate market, including SHIBOR overnight, DR001, SHIBOR one - week, and DR007 rates compared with yesterday, one week ago, and one month ago [11]. - **Figure 1**: Illustrates the term structure of treasury bond spot prices [8][9]. - **Figure 2**: Tracks domestic medium - level economic data, based on the comparison of medium - level data in each module with the same period in the past five years (year - on - year month - on - month), scored according to the degree of change [12][13].