商品期货早班车 2025年09月04日 星期四 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 市场表现：贵金属维持强势，伦敦金价逼近 3600 美元。 属 基本面：美联储理事沃勒表示，美联储应在本月开始降息，并在未来数月内进行多次下调，但他对降息的具 体节奏持开放态度，认为这将取决于未来的经济数据；美国职位空缺人数 718.1 万低于预期；美联储博斯蒂 克变送 hi 疲软的就业市场意味着政策放松是合适的。国内黄金 ETF 资金流入，COMEX 黄金库存 1211 吨， 维持不变；上期所黄金库存 40 吨，维持不变；伦敦 7 月黄金库存 8774 吨；上期所白银库存 1226 吨，增加 11 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存 1283 吨，增加 1.7 吨，COMEX 白银库存 16049 吨，减少 70 吨；伦敦 7 月 白银库存增加408吨至24196吨；印度7月白银进口约340吨左右。全球最大白银etf--iShares持有量为15366 吨，增加 56 吨。 交易策略：美联储独立性受质疑，去美元化逻辑未变，美联储降息概率大增，西方国家长端债券遭到抛售， 加大避险需求，建议黄金做多；白银再次跟随黄金大涨，随着进入美国关 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy, recommend buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips, but note short - term market cooling signs [2] - For treasury bond futures, with the upward shift in risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies for the medium and long term [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On September 2nd, the four major A - share stock indexes declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45% to 3858.13 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 2.14% to 12553.84 points, the ChiNext Index decreased 2.85% to 2872.22 points, and the STAR 50 Index declined 2.13% to 1328.28 points. Market turnover was 29,124 billion yuan, an increase of 1,348 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, banks (+1.95%), public utilities (+0.99%), and household appliances (+0.91%) led the gains, while communication (-5.73%), computer (-4.06%), and electronics (-3.85%) led the losses [2] - In terms of market strength, IH > IF > IC > IM. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 1,257, 113, and 4,055 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had net inflows of - 720, - 477, 254, and 943 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 588, - 244, +245, and +587 billion yuan [2] - For the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH, the basis was 111.68, 110.49, 14.85, and 1.68 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 13.63%, - 14.17%, - 2.95%, and - 0.5% respectively. The three - year historical quantiles were 18%, 8%, 29%, and 39% respectively [2] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On September 2nd, the yields of treasury bond futures rose. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.375, up 1.19 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.61, up 0.96 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.741, up 0.84 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 2.129, up 3.43 bps [2] - For the current active 2512 contract, the CTD bond of the two - year treasury bond futures was 250012.IB, with a yield change of +0 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.007, and an IRR of 1.46%; the CTD bond of the five - year treasury bond futures was 250003.IB, with a yield change of - 0.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.069, and an IRR of 1.2%; the CTD bond of the ten - year treasury bond futures was 220017.IB, with a yield change of - 0.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.082, and an IRR of 1.15%; the CTD bond of the thirty - year treasury bond futures was 210014.IB, with a yield change of +1 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.185, and an IRR of 0.95% [2] - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 2,557 billion yuan and withdrew 4,058 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,501 billion yuan [2] 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [10] - Based on the comparison of medium - term data of each module with the same period in the past five years, positive scores indicate an improvement in sentiment, negative scores indicate a weakening in sentiment, and zero scores indicate little change in sentiment [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies of various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Different trading strategies are recommended for each commodity based on their specific market conditions [2][3][4]. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: The market is strong with London gold price above $3500. The US 8 - month ISM manufacturing index shows contraction, and domestic gold ETF has capital inflow. It is recommended to go long on gold due to the increased probability of Fed rate - cut and the unchanged de - dollarization logic [2]. - **Silver**: It follows gold's rise. As it enters the US critical minerals list and faces tariff threats, there are short - term long - trading opportunities [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price oscillates strongly. With the weakening of the US manufacturing PMI and the opening of the import window, it is recommended to buy on dips [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract slightly declined. Supply is stable, demand is recovering, but inventory build - up suppresses the market. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the inventory inflection point [3]. - **Alumina**: The price of the main contract rose slightly. Supply is affected by environmental protection, and demand is high. The fundamentals are loose, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Zinc**: The price of the main contract rose. Supply has increased significantly, consumption is in the off - season, and inventory has increased. It is recommended to short on rallies [4]. - **Lead**: The price of the main contract slightly declined. Supply is tightening, consumption is flat, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to trade within a range and go long on dips [4]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main contract declined. Supply has increased, demand in some industries is improving, and inventory is decreasing slightly. It is recommended to wait and see as the market may oscillate weakly [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract fell. Supply growth is weakening, demand is increasing, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to supply - side changes [4]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price of the main contract declined. The supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak. It is recommended to wait and see as the market may oscillate at a high level [4]. - **Tin**: The price oscillates. The supply of tin ore is tight, but there are expectations of future increases. It may follow the macro - trend and oscillate strongly in the short term [5]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main contract oscillated strongly. Inventory has increased, and supply - demand is seasonally weak with obvious structural differentiation. It is recommended to close short positions on the 2601 contract [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract oscillated strongly. Supply and demand are neutral - strong with a slight weakening at the margin. It is recommended to close short positions on the 2601 contract [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The main contract oscillated strongly. Supply - demand is relatively loose but improving. It is recommended to close short positions on the 2601 contract [6]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight CBOT soybean price fell. Supply is expected to change, and demand has a game. Short - term US soybeans are strong, and the domestic market may oscillate. The medium - term trend depends on tariff policies [8]. - **Corn**: The 2511 contract continued to rebound. Wheat substitution, increased supply, and lower costs suppress the price. It is recommended to wait and see as the futures may oscillate weakly [8]. - **Sugar**: The 01 contract price fell. International and domestic factors affect the market. It is recommended to short on the futures market and sell call options [8]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price oscillated and fell. International and domestic market conditions are different. It is recommended to go long on dips within the 13800 - 14500 yuan/ton range [8]. - **Palm Oil**: The price rose. Supply is in the seasonal growth period, and demand is increasing. It is recommended to be bullish on the medium - term and pay attention to production and policies [8]. - **Eggs**: The 2510 contract performed weakly. Supply is sufficient, and demand may increase seasonally. It is recommended to wait and see as the futures may oscillate [8]. - **Pigs**: The 2511 contract oscillated narrowly. Supply and demand are both increasing, and the state has started a purchase and storage plan. It is recommended to wait and see as the spot price may stop falling and stabilize [9]. - **Apples**: The main contract price rose slightly. The price of early - maturing apples is falling, but there are expectations for late - maturing varieties. It is recommended to wait and see as the market oscillates [9]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract price fell slightly. Supply is increasing, demand is improving, and inventory is decreasing slightly. Short - term oscillation is expected, and it is recommended to short on far - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads in the long - term [10]. - **Rubber**: The price of the main contract rose slightly. Supply prices are rising, inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to hold long positions [10]. - **PP**: The main contract price fell slightly. Supply is increasing, demand is improving, and inventory is accumulating slightly. Short - term weak oscillation is expected, and it is recommended to short on far - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads in the long - term [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The price rose, but the Brent spread weakened. Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and there is a large expected surplus in Q4. It is recommended to short on rallies [11]. - **Styrene**: The main contract price fell slightly. Supply is expected to increase, demand is improving, and inventory is normal. Short - term weak oscillation is expected, and it is recommended to short on far - month contracts or short on styrene profit when the price rebounds [11].

Report Overview - The report is a financial futures morning report released by China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. on September 2, 2025, covering the performance of stock index and treasury bond futures on September 1, 2025, as well as market trading strategies and economic data analysis [1][2] Market Performance Stock Index Futures and Spot Market - On September 1, the four major A - share stock indexes oscillated strongly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.46% to 3875.53 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.05% to 12828.95 points, the ChiNext Index rose 2.29% to 2956.37 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 1.18% to 1357.15 points. Market turnover was 2777.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 52.6 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, communication (+5.22%), comprehensive (+4.27%), and non - ferrous metals (+3.46%) led the gains; non - bank finance (-1.28%), banks (-1.03%), and household appliances (-0.54%) led the losses [2] - From the perspective of market strength, IC > IM > IF > IH. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 3206, 133, and 2085 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were -13.1 billion, -23.3 billion, 800 million, and 35.6 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +11.6 billion, +4.8 billion, -10.8 billion, and -5.5 billion yuan respectively [2] - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 186.95, 147.09, 20.71, and 3.2 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were -21.49%, -17.83%, -3.95%, and -0.93% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 3%, 2%, 21%, and 35% respectively [2] Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market - On September 1, the yields of treasury bond futures declined across the board. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.359, a decrease of 0.53 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.604, a decrease of 1.8 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.734, a decrease of 2.5 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 2.097, a decrease of 1.6 bps [3] - For the current active contract 2512, the CTD bond of the two - year treasury bond futures was 250012.IB, with a yield change of -0.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.028, and an IRR of 1.54%; the five - year was 250003.IB, with a yield change of -1 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.026, and an IRR of 1.36%; the ten - year was 220017.IB, with a yield change of -1.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.006, and an IRR of 1.41%; the thirty - year was 210014.IB, with a yield change of -1 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.028, and an IRR of 1.39% [3] Capital Situation - In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 182.7 billion yuan and withdrew 288.4 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 105.7 billion yuan [4] Trading Strategies - For the medium - and long - term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock indexes as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips. In the short term, there are signs of market cooling [3] - With the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to conduct hedging on T and TL contracts at high levels for the medium - and long - term [4] Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The overall market presents a complex situation with different trends in various commodity sectors. Some sectors like precious metals and certain base metals show potential for upward movement, while others such as energy - related commodities and some agricultural products face supply - demand imbalances and price uncertainties [1][2][3]. - The geopolitical situation, economic data (such as PMI, unemployment rate), and policy factors (like tariffs, production cuts) significantly impact the commodity markets [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market is in high - level oscillation, with silver breaking through the $40 mark. Fundamental factors include geopolitical tensions in Europe and positive economic data in the eurozone. Suggested strategy is to go long on gold due to the unchanged de - dollarization logic and increased probability of Fed rate cuts, and there are short - term long opportunities for silver [1]. - **Silver**: Followed gold's rally. With the threat of increased tariffs as it enters the US critical minerals list, there are short - term long opportunities [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Price oscillated strongly. With a weakening dollar and tight copper ore supply, the suggested strategy is to buy on dips due to expected liquidity easing and supply - demand tightening [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased slightly. Supply is stable with increasing production capacity, and demand is improving. However, inventory accumulation suppresses the market. It is expected to continue oscillating, and the suggested strategy is to buy on dips [2]. - **Alumina**: The price of the main contract decreased. Supply is in a loose pattern with increasing warehouse receipts, and overseas prices are falling. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the suggested strategy is to wait and see [2]. - **Zinc**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. Supply has increased significantly, while demand is in a deepening off - season. The suggested strategy is to sell on rallies [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract price increased. Supply has increased, and demand shows mixed trends. The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 7600 - 9100, and the suggested strategy is to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract price decreased. Supply is facing some uncertainties, and demand is showing growth in some areas. It is expected to oscillate and decline in the short term, and the suggested strategy is to wait and see [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main contract price increased. The market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Policy news is causing market fluctuations, and the suggested strategy is to wait and see, and consider light - position long or buying out - of - the - money call options on pullbacks [3]. - **Tin**: The price oscillated. Supply is currently tight but with ongoing复产 in Wa State. In a macro - positive environment, it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main contract price oscillated weakly. The steel market has a seasonal weak supply - demand situation with obvious structural differentiation. The suggested strategy is to short the 2601 contract in the short term [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price oscillated weakly. Supply and demand are moderately strong but slightly weakening at the margin. The suggested strategy is to short the 2601 contract in the short term [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The main contract price oscillated weakly. Supply is relatively loose but improving. The suggested strategy is to short the 2601 contract [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans were closed overnight. Near - term US soybean production is shrinking, while South American production is expected to increase in the long - term. Short - term US soybeans are strong, and the domestic market may oscillate after risk premium reduction. Mid - term trends depend on tariff policies [6]. - **Corn**: The 2511 contract oscillated narrowly. Wheat substitution, increased supply from imports and new harvests, and lower production costs are putting downward pressure on prices. The futures are expected to oscillate weakly, and the suggested strategy is to wait and see [7]. - **Sugar**: The 01 contract increased slightly. Brazil's high production is pressuring the international market, and domestic prices are showing signs of stabilization. The suggested strategy is to go short in the futures market and sell call options [7]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton market was closed overnight, and the domestic market rebounded. The suggested strategy is to buy on dips in the range of 13800 - 14500 [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The market was closed. Supply is in a seasonal growth cycle, and demand is improving. It is in a situation of increasing supply and demand, with near - term inventory accumulation and long - term tightness expected. The short - term is for consolidation, and the medium - term is still bullish [7]. - **Eggs**: The 2510 contract ran weakly. Supply is sufficient, and demand may increase seasonally. The futures are expected to oscillate after continuous decline, and the suggested strategy is to wait and see [7]. - **Pigs**: The 2511 contract ran weakly. Consumption is recovering, but supply is also increasing. The pig price is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short term, and the suggested strategy for futures is to wait and see [7]. - **Apples**: The main contract price decreased slightly. The price of early - maturing apples is falling, but farmers' expectations for late - maturing apples support the market. The market is expected to oscillate, and the suggested strategy is to wait and see [8]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract price decreased slightly. Supply is increasing domestically but may decrease in imports. Demand is improving in the agricultural film sector. Short - term oscillation is expected, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short far - month contracts or do reverse spreads [8]. - **PVC**: The 01 contract price decreased slightly. It is in bottom - level oscillation, with supply increasing and demand weak. The suggested strategy is to wait and see [8]. - **Glass**: The FG01 contract price decreased. Supply is expected to increase slightly, and inventory is decreasing. The market is in a de - stocking cycle, and the suggested strategy is to wait and see [8]. - **PP**: The main contract price decreased slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is entering the peak season. Short - term oscillation is expected, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short far - month contracts or do reverse spreads [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The price increased slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening after the peak season. The suggested strategy is to sell on rallies [9]. - **Styrene**: The main contract price decreased slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is still facing challenges. Short - term oscillation is expected, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short far - month contracts or short styrene profit [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa01 contract price decreased. Supply is recovering with high inventory. The suggested strategy is to wait for macro guidance [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price increased and then stabilized. Supply and demand are healthy, and the price is expected to rise. The suggested strategy is to go long on caustic soda [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex and diversified situation across different commodity sectors. Some sectors are influenced by factors such as policy changes, supply - demand imbalances, and macro - economic conditions. Investment strategies vary from sector to sector, including suggestions to buy, sell, or wait and see [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Prices rose last Friday due to the ongoing Trump - Fed officials' game. The US court's ruling on tariffs, PCE data, and Fed officials' statements affected the market. With the Fed's independence questioned and high probability of rate cuts, it is recommended to go long on gold. COMEX gold inventory increased by 6 tons to 1205 tons, and上期所黄金库存 increased by 2 tons to 39 tons [1] - **Silver**: Followed gold's rise. As it enters the US critical minerals list and faces tariff threats, there are short - term long - trading opportunities. The global largest silver etf - iShares holding decreased by 22 tons to 15310 tons [1] Base Metals - **Copper**: The price was oscillating strongly. The weakening dollar index supported metal prices. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2] - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum price is expected to continue oscillating. Supply is stable, and downstream demand is recovering, but inventory accumulation suppresses the market. It is recommended to buy on dips [2] - **Alumina**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly. Supply is in a loose pattern, with rising warehouse receipts and falling overseas prices. Sellers of call options are recommended for those holding spot [2] - **Industrial Silicon**: The policy - expected trading sentiment cooled. The market is expected to oscillate weakly between 7600 - 9100 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term sentiment cooled. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see, buy on dips with a small position, or buy call options after volatility drops [3] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern. The impact of production - limit policies on contracts varies. It is necessary to focus on the implementation of production - limit and storage - collection plans [3] - **Tin**: The price rose and then fell. Supply is expected to increase, and it is recommended to adopt an oscillating trading approach in the short term [3] Black Industry - **Rebar**: The market is seasonally weak with obvious structural differentiation. It is recommended to short - sell the 2601 contract of rebar in the short term [4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Supply - demand is marginally weakening. It is recommended to short - sell the 2601 contract of iron ore in the short term [5] - **Coking Coal**: Supply - demand is relatively loose but improving. It is recommended to short - sell the 2601 contract of coking coal [5] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term US soybeans are strong, while the domestic market is weak. The medium - term trend depends on tariff policies [6] - **Corn**: The futures are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [6] - **Sugar**: Internationally, the Brazilian sugar production dominates. Domestically, the 01 contract may oscillate and rebound slightly, and then oscillate weakly. It is recommended to short - sell in the futures market and sell call options [6][7] - **Cotton**: It is recommended to wait and see, with an oscillating strategy between 13800 - 14500 yuan/ton [7] - **Log**: The 11 - contract is expected to fluctuate around 800 yuan/cubic meter. It is recommended to wait and see [7] - **Palm Oil**: In the short term, the oil market is weak, but in the medium - term, it is still bullish. It is necessary to focus on production areas' output and biodiesel policies [7] - **Eggs**: After continuous decline, the futures are expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see [7] - **Hogs**: The spot price is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the futures market [7][8] Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: In the short term, it oscillates, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short - sell the far - month contract or conduct a reverse spread on the month - difference. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving [9] - **PVC**: The supply - demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see. The supply is increasing, and the demand is about to enter the peak season [9] - **PTA**: Short - term supply tightens, but in the long - term, it is recommended to short - sell the processing margin of the far - month contract. The short - term PX accumulates inventory, and PTA reduces inventory [9] - **Rubber**: It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about chasing up. The inventory is decreasing, and the raw material support is strong [9][10] - **Glass**: The supply - demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see. The inventory is seasonally decreasing [10] - **PP**: In the short term, it oscillates weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short - sell the far - month contract or conduct a reverse spread on the month - difference. The supply and demand are both increasing [10] - **MEG**: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies, paying attention to peak - season orders. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is expected to accumulate [10] - **Styrene**: In the short term, it oscillates weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short - sell the far - month contract or short - sell the profit. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand needs to be observed during the peak season [10][11] - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see. The inventory is at a high level [11] - **Caustic Soda**: It is recommended to over - allocate. The demand is seasonally starting, and the inventory is decreasing [11]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - For stock index futures, the report maintains a long - term bullish view on the economy. It suggests allocating long - term contracts of various varieties on dips, while noting short - term market cooling signs [1]. - For treasury bond futures, considering the upward risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies for the medium - to - long term [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On August 29, most of the four major A - share stock indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.37% to 3857.93 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.99% to 12696.15 points, and the ChiNext Index up 2.23% to 2890.13 points, while the Sci - tech Innovation 50 Index fell 1.71% to 1341.31 points. Market turnover was 28,302 billion yuan, a decrease of 170.7 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, comprehensive (+3.86%), power equipment (+3.12%), and non - ferrous metals (+2.44%) led the gains, while household appliances (-1.82%), transportation (-1.69%), and computers (-1.48%) led the losses. In terms of market strength, IF>IH>IC>IM, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1,997/121/3,306 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors' net inflows were - 24.7 billion, - 28 billion, 11.7 billion, and 41.1 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 12.5 billion, - 1.3 billion, + 13.5 billion, and + 0.3 billion yuan respectively [1]. - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 133.68, 95.74, - 4.04, and - 0.33 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 14.98%, - 11.33%, 0.75%, and 0.09% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 13%, 12%, 65%, and 45% respectively [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy, recommend allocating long - term contracts of various varieties on dips; note short - term market cooling signs [1]. b) Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On August 29, the yields of treasury bond futures declined across the board. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.371, down 3.05 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.623, down 1.08 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.763, down 0.23 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 2.114, down 0.09 bps [1]. - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2512 contract. For the two - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250012.IB, with a yield change of - 1.2 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.003, and an IRR of 1.51%; for the five - year, the CTD bond is 250003.IB, yield change - 2 bps, net basis 0.079, IRR 1.25%; for the ten - year, the CTD bond is 220019.IB, yield change - 0.75 bps, net basis 0.127, IRR 1.09%; for the thirty - year, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, yield change - 0.75 bps, net basis 0.218, IRR 0.98% [1]. - **Funding Situation**: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 782.9 billion yuan and withdrew 361.2 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 421.7 billion yuan [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Considering the upward risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, recommend medium - to - long - term hedging of T and TL contracts on rallies [1]. c) Economic Data - **High - Frequency Data**: High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [8]. d) Short - Term Funding Rates - **SHIBOR Overnight**: The current SHIBOR overnight rate is 1.331, compared with 1.316 the previous day, 1.418 a week ago, and 1.366 a month ago [8].

Report Overview - The report is titled "Financial Futures Morning Express" and is issued by China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. on August 29, 2025 [1] Market Performance Stock Index Futures - On August 28, the four major A - share stock indexes all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.14% to 3843.6 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 2.25% to 12571.37 points, the ChiNext Index up 3.82% to 2827.17 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index up 7.23% to 1364.6 points. Market turnover was 30,009 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,969 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, communication (+7.14%), electronics (+5.53%), and national defense and military industry (+2.29%) led the gains, while coal (-0.81%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-0.73%), and textile and apparel (-0.47%) led the losses [2] - From the perspective of market strength, IC > IF > IM > IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2,867/157/2,400 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 122, - 268, - 18, and 408 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +285, +238, - 175, and - 348 billion yuan respectively [2] - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 141.31, 89.96, 9.18, and - 1.27 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 15.3%, - 10.35%, - 1.66%, and 0.35% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 12%, 14%, 40%, and 47% respectively [2] Bond Futures - On August 28, the yields of treasury bond futures all rose. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.403, up 1.46 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.636, up 2.16 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.765, up 1.75 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 2.118, up 3.68 bps [3] - For the current active 2512 contract, the CTD bond of the 2 - year treasury bond futures was 250012.IB, with a yield change of +1.2 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.036, and an IRR of 1.42%; the CTD bond of the 5 - year treasury bond futures was 250003.IB, with a yield change of +1.75 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.053, and an IRR of 1.36%; the CTD bond of the 10 - year treasury bond futures was 220017.IB, with a yield change of +4 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.098, and an IRR of 1.21%; the CTD bond of the 30 - year treasury bond futures was 210005.IB, with a yield change of +3.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.15, and an IRR of 1.18% [3] Capital Market - In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 4,161 billion yuan and withdrew 2,530 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 1,631 billion yuan [4] Trading Strategies Stock Index Futures - In the medium and long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips. In the short term, the market shows signs of cooling [3] Bond Futures - With the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium and long term [4] Data Tables Stock Index Futures Spot and Futures Market Performance - The table shows the performance of various stock index futures contracts, including code, name, change rate, current price, change, trading volume, trading value, open interest, daily change in open interest, settlement price, basis, and annualized basis yield, as well as the performance of corresponding spot indexes such as CSI 500, SSE 50, etc. [6] Treasury Bond Futures Spot and Futures Market Performance - The table presents the performance of various treasury bond futures contracts, including code, name, change rate, current price, trading volume, trading value, open interest, daily change in open interest, settlement price, net basis, CTD bond implied interest rate, and spot bond yield, as well as the performance of corresponding spot treasury bonds [8] Short - term Capital Interest Rate Market Changes - The table shows the current price, previous price, price one week ago, and price one month ago of SHIBOR overnight [11] Figures Treasury Bond Spot Term Structure - The figure shows the term structure of treasury bond spot yields at different time points from 2024/8/28 to 2025/8/28 for different maturities ranging from 3 months to 30 years [10] Domestic Meso - level Data Tracking - Based on the changes (month - on - month of year - on - year) of meso - level data in each module compared with the same period in the past five years, scores are assigned (-2 to +2). Positive scores represent an improvement in the prosperity index, negative scores represent a decline, and a score of zero represents little change [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The independence of the Federal Reserve is challenged, the logic of de - dollarization remains unchanged, and the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased significantly. Gold and silver are recommended for long - positions. For base metals, copper and tin are recommended for buying on dips, aluminum for buying on dips with an expected price increase, while zinc for short - selling on rallies, and lead for range - bound trading. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see as the price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range. For polycrystalline silicon, pay attention to the implementation of production limits during the transition period [1][2][3]. - In the black industry, close short positions in the rebar 2510 contract, and mainly wait and see for iron ore and coking coal [4]. - In the agricultural products market, short - term US soybeans are strong, while the domestic market is weak in the short - term. Corn futures are expected to fluctuate after a continuous decline. For sugar, short on the futures market and sell call options. For cotton, buy on dips. For palm oil, it is still bullish but difficult to trade after the valuation increase. For eggs, wait and see due to strong supply and weak demand. For live pigs, the spot price is expected to stop falling and stabilize, and wait and see for futures. For apples, wait and see as the current price is mainly in a range - bound state [5][6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, LLDPE is expected to be range - bound in the short - term and supply will be more abundant in the long - term, so it is recommended to short far - month contracts on rallies. PVC and glass are recommended to wait and see as the supply - demand situation is weak but the downside is limited. Rubber is recommended to hold long positions. PP is expected to be range - bound and weak in the short - term and supply will be more abundant in the long - term, so short far - month contracts on rallies. For crude oil, look for short - selling opportunities at around 500 yuan/barrel for the SC main contract. For styrene, it is expected to be range - bound and weak in the short - term and supply will be more abundant in the long - term, so short far - month contracts on rallies. For soda ash, wait and see as the downside is limited. For caustic soda, it is recommended to go long as the supply - demand is healthy [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Gold**: Prices continued to rebound on Thursday. The US second - quarter GDP was revised up, and initial jobless claims decreased. The independence of the Federal Reserve is challenged, and the probability of an interest rate cut has increased. Domestic gold ETF funds had a small inflow. It is recommended to go long on gold [1]. - **Silver**: Followed gold's trend. As it is on the US critical minerals list, there is a threat of increased tariffs, and there are short - term long - position opportunities [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price oscillated strongly. The dollar index weakened due to concerns about Trump's intervention in the Fed's independence. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and it is recommended to buy on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased slightly. The supply of electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the demand (aluminum product start - up rate) increased slightly. It is expected that the price will increase and recommended to buy on dips [1]. - **Alumina**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. The supply of alumina was stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production. The fundamental situation is in surplus, and it is not advisable to short aggressively. If holding spot, sell call options [1][2]. - **Zinc**: The price of the main contract decreased. The supply increased significantly, the processing fee increased, and the consumption was in the off - season. The domestic social inventory increased, while the LME inventory decreased. It is recommended to short on rallies [2]. - **Lead**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. The supply is expected to tighten, but the current spot circulation is still abundant. The consumption peak season has not recovered significantly, and the social inventory has accumulated. It is recommended for range - bound trading [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main contract increased. The supply increased, and both social and warehouse receipt inventories decreased slightly. The demand for polysilicon increased slightly, while the production of silicone decreased. The downstream demand for aluminum alloy was in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see as the price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9200 [2]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price of the main contract increased. The production increased in August, and the inventory decreased significantly. The downstream product prices were stable, and the third - quarter photovoltaic installation demand was pessimistic. Pay attention to the implementation of production limits during the transition period, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 [2]. - **Tin**: The price oscillated strongly. The dollar index weakened. The supply of tin ore was tight in the short - term, but there was an expectation of increased supply. It is recommended to buy on dips [2][3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. The apparent demand and production of rebar both increased. The supply - demand of building materials was slightly weak, while the demand for plates was stable. The overall supply - demand of steel was balanced, but there was obvious structural differentiation. Close short positions in the rebar 2510 contract, and the reference range for RB10 is 3080 - 3160 [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. The port inventory decreased, and the iron - making water production decreased slightly. The supply - demand of iron ore was slightly strong, but the marginal situation weakened. The futures valuation was high. It is recommended to wait and see, and the reference range for I09 is 765 - 795 [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. The iron - making water production decreased slightly, and the steel mill profit margin narrowed. The overall supply - demand was relatively loose, but the fundamentals were improving. The futures valuation was high. Close short positions in the coking coal 2601 contract, and the reference range for JM01 is 1120 - 1180 [4]. Agricultural Products Market - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose slightly. The near - term US soybean production decreased, while the long - term South American production is expected to increase. The short - term US soybeans are strong, while the domestic market is weak in the short - term and depends on tariff policies in the medium - term [5]. - **Corn**: The price of the 2511 contract rebounded, while the spot price decreased. Wheat substitutes for corn in feed demand, and the import of grains increased the market supply. The futures are expected to fluctuate after a continuous decline, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Sugar**: The price of the 01 contract decreased slightly. Internationally, Brazil's high production is the main factor pressing down the raw sugar price. Domestically, the spot price has stabilized. Short on the futures market and sell call options [6]. - **Cotton**: Overnight US cotton futures rose. Internationally, US cotton exports increased, and India extended the exemption of cotton import tariffs. Domestically, the spot is in short supply. Buy on dips [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The price of palm oil decreased. The supply is in the seasonal increase period, and the demand has improved. The overall supply and demand are increasing, with inventory accumulation in the near - term and a tight expectation in the long - term. It is still bullish but difficult to trade after the valuation increase [6]. - **Eggs**: The price of the 2510 contract continued to decline, and the spot price decreased slightly. The egg - laying rate decreased seasonally, the demand from food factories increased seasonally, but the supply was abundant. It is recommended to wait and see due to strong supply and weak demand [6]. - **Live Pigs**: The price of the 2511 contract was weak, and the spot price increased in the north and decreased in the south. The consumption is increasing, the supply is abundant, and the state reserve purchase has started. The spot price is expected to stop falling and stabilize, and wait and see for futures [6]. - **Apples**: The price of the main contract increased. The price of early - maturing apples has decreased, but fruit farmers still have expectations for the price of late - maturing apples. The current price is mainly in a range - bound state, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry - **LLDPE**: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. The supply increased, the import decreased, and the demand for agricultural films is in the peak season and is improving. In the short - term, it is range - bound, and in the long - term, the supply - demand will be more abundant, so short far - month contracts on rallies [8]. - **PVC**: The price of the V01 contract decreased. The supply increased, the export is expected to weaken, and the social inventory increased. The supply - demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Rubber**: The price of the main contract increased. The inventory continued to decrease, and the raw material support is strong. It is recommended to hold long positions [8]. - **Glass**: The price of the FG01 contract decreased. The supply is expected to increase slightly, the inventory decreased, and the downstream demand is still weak. The supply - demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **PP**: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. The supply increased, the export window opened, and the demand is in the peak season and is improving. In the short - term, it is range - bound and weak, and in the long - term, the supply - demand will be more abundant, so short far - month contracts on rallies [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The price increased at night. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand peak season is coming to an end. The month - spread is weakening, and look for short - selling opportunities for the SC main contract around 500 yuan/barrel [10]. - **Styrene**: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. The supply is expected to increase, the demand is in the peak season and is improving, and the downstream inventory is still high. In the short - term, it is range - bound and weak, and in the long - term, the supply - demand will be more abundant, so short far - month contracts on rallies [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of the sa01 contract remained unchanged. The supply has some maintenance, the inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is gradually recovering. The downside is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of the sh01 contract decreased slightly. The traditional demand is in the peak season, the inventory decreased, and the supply - demand is healthy. It is recommended to go long [12].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For stock index futures, in the medium - long term, maintain the view of being bullish on the economy, and recommend allocating long - term contracts of each variety on dips; in the short term, the market shows signs of cooling [1]. - For bond futures, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium - long term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory (1) Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On August 27, the four major A - share stock indexes adjusted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.76% to 3800.35 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.43% to 12295.07 points, the ChiNext Index declined 0.69% to 2723.2 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.13% to 1272.56 points. Market turnover was 31,978 billion yuan, an increase of 4,880 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, communication (+1.66%) led the gainers, while beauty care (-3.86%) led the decliners. From the perspective of market strength, IC > IF > IH > IM. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 633/29/4,761 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net capital inflows of - 407, - 506, 157, and 756 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 216, - 238, +126, and +328 billion yuan respectively [1]. - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 101.5, 68.76, 8.93, and 0.18 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 10.81%, - 7.83%, - 1.59%, and - 0.05% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 32%, 25%, 41%, and 43% respectively [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium - long term, maintain the view of being bullish on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips; in the short term, the market shows signs of cooling [1]. (2) Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On August 27, most yields of bond futures declined. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.379, down 0.93 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.605, down 0.96 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.744, up 0.22 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 2.073, down 0.87 bps [1]. - **Cash Bond**: The current active contract is the 2512 contract. The CTD bond of the two - year bond futures is 250012.IB, with a yield change of - 1 bps, corresponding to a net basis of 0.014 and an IRR of 1.47%; the CTD bond of the five - year bond futures is 250003.IB, with a yield change of +0.25 bps, corresponding to a net basis of - 0.004 and an IRR of 1.52%; the CTD bond of the ten - year bond futures is 220017.IB, with a yield change of - 0.5 bps, corresponding to a net basis of 0.097 and an IRR of 1.25%; the CTD bond of the thirty - year bond futures is 210005.IB, with a yield change of +0.75 bps, corresponding to a net basis of - 0.093 and an IRR of 1.76% [1]. - **Funding Situation**: In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 3,799 billion yuan and withdrew 6,160 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2,361 billion yuan [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium - long term [2]. (3) Economic Data High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [9].