1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides investment analyses and trading strategies for various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading suggestions for each sector [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold Market** - Market Performance: On Tuesday, precious metals rose, with London gold breaking through $4,700 per ounce and London silver reaching $95 per ounce [2]. - Fundamentals: The US Supreme Court's decision on Trump's tariff - related matters is pending, and a hearing on Trump's attempt to remove Fed Governor Cook is scheduled. There were fluctuations in the Japanese bond market, the EU may freeze the US - EU trade agreement approval, and the Polish central bank plans to buy 150 tons of gold. Domestic gold ETFs had a large inflow of 1.3 tons [2]. - Trading Strategy: With the escalation of the tariff war, gold prices are steadily rising. It is recommended to go long. For silver, due to strong speculative sentiment and Trump's delay in adding tariffs, it is advised to participate with caution [2]. - **Silver Market** - Market Performance: The price of silver increased. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 83.4 tons to 13,263.4 tons, while iShares silver ETF持仓 increased by 151 tons to 16,222.5 tons [2]. - Fundamentals: Trump postponed the tariff increase on silver, and some New York inventory flowed back to London, alleviating the inventory shortage [2]. - Trading Strategy: Due to high domestic speculative sentiment, it is recommended to participate with caution [2]. Base Metals - **Aluminum** - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.58% to 23,950 yuan/ton. The domestic monthly spread was - 415 yuan/ton, and the LME price was $3,142 per ton [3]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, with a slight increase in operating capacity. The weekly aluminum product start - up rate rose slightly [3]. - Trading Strategy: With mixed macro - sentiment, traditional aluminum demand is weak at high prices. The market sentiment has cooled slightly, and the short - term price is expected to remain in high - level oscillation [3]. - **Alumina** - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 2.27% to 2,671 yuan/ton, and the domestic monthly spread was - 54 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: Alumina plants' operating capacity remained stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3]. - Trading Strategy: The oversupply pattern remains unchanged, inventory accumulation intensifies the short - selling atmosphere, and the cost support continues to decline. The price is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the short term, and attention should be paid to the production cuts in February [3]. - **Zinc and Lead** - Market Performance: On January 20, the main contracts of zinc and lead closed at 24,410 yuan/ton and 17,225 yuan/ton respectively, with an increase of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The domestic monthly spreads were - 24,410 yuan/ton and - 17,225 yuan/ton respectively. Overseas 0 - 3 monthly spreads were - 41.66 and - 47.13 dollars/ton respectively. Zinc inventories in seven regions increased by 0.36 million tons, and lead inventories in five regions increased by 0.16 million tons [3][4]. - Fundamentals: For zinc, macro - sentiment pushed the price to a high level, but the fundamentals showed weak supply and demand. Domestic consumption is in the traditional off - season, and downstream demand is weak due to high prices. The supply has increased significantly, and the processing fee has jumped, but the low LME inventory provides support. For lead, domestic lead ingot inventories are accumulating, and the consumption of electric bicycle batteries is weakening [3][4]. - Trading Strategy: The sentiment in the non - ferrous sector has partially dissipated. It is recommended to sell short at high prices in the short term [4]. - **Industrial Silicon** - Market Performance: The main 05 contract closed at 8,745 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price ratio of - 1.13%. The position decreased by 10,615 lots to 225,000 lots, and the variety's settled funds decreased by 0.48 billion yuan [4]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the number of open furnaces decreased by 7 compared to last week, mainly in Sichuan. Social and warehouse inventories increased slightly this week. On the demand side, the polysilicon and organic silicon industries are promoting anti - involution, and production is expected to decline [4]. - Trading Strategy: With potential supply - side production cuts and demand - side production reduction expectations, the market is expected to oscillate between 8,400 - 9,200 yuan/ton. It is advisable to go short lightly at high prices [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - Market Performance: LC2605 closed at 160,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.99%. The spot price of Australian spodumene concentrate increased by $20 to $2,060 per ton, and the SMM lithium carbonate price increased by 1,500 yuan to 152,500 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: The weekly production was 22,605 tons, a week - on - week increase of 70 tons. SMM expects January supply to be 97,970 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%. In January, the expected production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased. The inventory is expected to remain in a tight balance in January, and the total inventory days remained at 28 days [4]. - Trading Strategy: Due to environmental and safety issues in Jiangxi's lithium resources and export rush expectations on the demand side, the price is expected to rise easily and fall hard [4]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon** - Market Performance: The main 05 contract closed at 50,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 195 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price ratio of 0.39%. The position decreased by 939 lots to 43,632 lots, and the variety's settled funds decreased by 0.57 billion yuan [4]. - Fundamentals: This week, the downstream in the spot market is in a wait - and - see state. The weekly production decreased by more than 10%, and the industry inventory increased slightly. The production of silicon wafers in January remained stable, while the production of battery cells and components decreased by more than 10% month - on - month. The cancellation of the photovoltaic export tax - refund policy on the 9th may support component exports [4]. - Trading Strategy: After the "anti - monopoly" event, the market has fully priced in the negative news, and the near - month balance sheet has changed from loose to tight. Attention should be paid to the subsequent feedback of industry associations [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar** - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3,115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton from the previous trading night [5]. - Fundamentals: The steel building material inventory in the Gangyin caliber increased by 1.4% to 3.005 million tons. The demand for building materials is relatively weak year - on - year, but the supply has decreased significantly. The demand for steel plates is stable, and the export is high. Steel mills are continuously losing money, and the production increase space is limited [5][6]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in the rebar 2605 contract. The reference range for RB05 is 3,090 - 3,150 yuan/ton [6]. - **Iron Ore** - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 788.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton from the previous trading night [6]. - Fundamentals: The arrival of iron ore increased by 1.17 million tons to 28.98 million tons year - on - week, and the total shipment from Australia and Brazil decreased by 3.6 million tons to 22.47 million tons. The supply and demand of iron ore are neutral, and the port and steel mill inventories are at the lowest level in the same period of history [6]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The reference range for I05 is 775 - 805 yuan/ton [6]. - **Coking Coal** - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1,113 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading night [6]. - Fundamentals: The molten iron production decreased by 15,000 tons to 2.28 million tons week - on - week. The fourth round of price cuts for coke has been implemented, and the first round of price increases has been proposed. The supply at the port is high, and the overall inventory level is low. The 05 contract futures are at a premium to the spot [6]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in the coking coal 2605 contract. The reference range for JM05 is 1,090 - 1,130 yuan/ton [6]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean** - Market Performance: The overnight CBOT soybean price slightly decreased [7]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the near - term is loose, and the long - term South American supply is expected to be large. On the demand side, US soybean crushing is strong, and exports are marginally improving. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose [7]. - Trading Strategy: US soybeans are in the process of finding a bottom. The domestic far - month contracts are suppressed by the large South American supply expectation, and the near - month contracts depend on the game between the reserve release volume and customs clearance [7]. - **Corn** - Market Performance: The corn futures price declined, while the spot price in the corn - producing area continued to rise [7]. - Fundamentals: The grain - selling progress has exceeded half, and the selling pressure is not large. The inventories of north - south ports, downstream feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises are lower than in previous years. The enthusiasm of northeast deep - processing enterprises to build inventories is high, but the policy - based corn auction has cooled down. The spot price is expected to oscillate strongly [7]. - Trading Strategy: The supply - demand contradiction is not large, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in a range. Attention should be paid to weather and policy changes [7]. - **Edible Oils** - Market Performance: The Malaysian palm oil futures price rose yesterday [7]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, it is in the weak seasonal production - reduction period. On the demand side, exports improved month - on - month. The overall situation is that the near - term is loose, and the long - term is in a weak seasonal production - reduction period [7]. - Trading Strategy: Edible oils are expected to oscillate strongly. In the medium term, attention should be paid to production and biodiesel policies [7]. - **Sugar** - Market Performance: The SR05 contract closed at 5,188 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54%. The basis of Nanning spot - SR05 contract was 62 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of processing Brazilian sugar after tax was 407 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamentals: The international raw sugar price dropped significantly due to pressure from Indian production. The pressure from India will last until February. Domestically, the overall production and sales progress is slow this year, and the spot pressure in the future market is greater. SR05 is priced by imports and domestic production, and both are under pressure [8]. - Trading Strategy: Go short in the futures market and sell call options [8]. - **Cotton** - Market Performance: The overnight ICE US cotton futures price oscillated and declined, and the international crude oil price stopped falling and rebounded [8]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, India's clothing export volume in December 2025 increased year - on - year and month - on - month. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price began to oscillate narrowly, and the medium - term upward trend is still valid. China's cotton yarn import volume in December 2025 increased year - on - year and month - on - month [8]. - Trading Strategy: Buy at low prices. The price range reference is 14,400 - 14,900 yuan/ton [8]. - **Eggs** - Market Performance: The egg futures price declined, and the egg spot price partially decreased [8]. - Fundamentals: The number of egg - laying hens in production decreased, but the de - capacity slowed down. As the egg price rose, the willingness to ship in the production area increased, the arrival volume in the sales area increased, the purchasing enthusiasm in the trading end decreased, and the inventory increased. The egg price may decline seasonally [8]. - Trading Strategy: The spot price is expected to decline seasonally, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **Hogs** - Market Performance: The hog futures price declined, and the hog spot price decreased [8]. - Fundamentals: The slaughter volume increased at the end of the month, the demand was stable in the short term, the supply pressure increased, and the impact of snowfall ended. The hog price is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the recent slaughter volume and slaughter rhythm changes [8]. - Trading Strategy: Supply and demand have weakened, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE** - Market Performance: The main LLDPE contract oscillated slightly yesterday. The low - price spot price in North China was 6,530 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract basis weakened. The overseas market price was stable, and the import window was closed [9]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, new devices were put into operation before, and some devices reduced load or stopped production. The import window was continuously closed, and the import volume is expected to decrease slightly. On the demand side, the downstream agricultural film is in the off - season, and the demand decreased month - on - month, while the demand in other fields remained stable [9]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, the industrial chain inventory decreased slightly, the basis was weak, the supply and demand were weak, and the geopolitical situation was volatile. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the upside space is limited by the import window. In the medium term, the new production capacity will decrease in the first half of the year, and the supply - demand pattern will improve. It is recommended to go long at low prices [9]. - **PVC** - Market Performance: The V05 contract closed at 4,808 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.2% [10]. - Fundamentals: PVC trading was at a low - level stalemate. The upstream ex - factory price decreased and then stabilized. The supply was at a high level, and the demand of downstream factories decreased seasonally. The real - estate market weakened in November, and the social inventory accumulated at a high level [10]. - Trading Strategy: With supply increasing and demand weakening, it is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage or adopt a wait - and - see approach [10]. - **PTA** - Market Performance: The PX CFR China price was $888 per ton, equivalent to 7,206 yuan/ton, and the PTA East China spot price was 5,015 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 63 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: For PX, multiple refineries increased their loads, and the PX load decreased slightly. Overseas, South Korean and Vietnamese devices plan to increase loads, and the import supply will increase. The gasoline cracking profit weakened, and the blending - oil demand was in the off - season. For PTA, the supply was at a high level, and some factories had maintenance in January. The polyester factory's load decreased, the product profit was compressed, and the downstream entered the off - season [10]. - Trading Strategy: PX's strong expectations support the price, but it may face callback pressure in the short term due to terminal demand. The medium - term long - allocation view remains unchanged. PTA accumulates inventory seasonally in the off - season, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern will improve. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to increase the processing fee in the 05 contract [10]. - **Methanol** - Market Performance: Affected by geopolitical factors, methanol first rose sharply and then oscillated and adjusted. As of January 20, the 05 contract closed at 2,206 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: The domestic methanol plant operating load remained above 90%, and the operating load in the northwest region was about 97%. The coal - to - methanol enterprises have few new device maintenance plans, and the overall production is likely to remain

金融研究 2026年1月20日 星期二 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：1 月 19 日，A 股四大股指涨跌不一，其中上证指数上涨 0.29%，报收 4114 点；深成指 上涨 0.09%，报收 14294.05 点；创业板指下跌 0.7%，报收 3337.61 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.48%， 报收 1506.86 点。市场成交 27,322 亿元，较前日减少 3,243 亿元。行业板块方面，基础化工(+2.7%)， 石油石化(+2.08%)，电力设备(+1.84%)涨幅居前；计算机(-1.55%)，通信(-0.96%)，银行(-0.6%)跌 幅居前。从市场强弱看，IC>IM>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 3,526/117/1,826。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-209、-189、93、305 亿元，分别变动-75、-84、+19、+140 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 79.05、21.95、5.86 与-1.66 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-6.13%、-1.7%、-0.79%与 0.35%，三年期历史分位数分别为 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The gold market is affected by the escalation of the US - EU tariff war, with gold prices rising steadily and a recommendation to go long on gold. For silver, due to strong speculative sentiment and inventory adjustments, cautious participation is advised [1]. - In the base metals market, electrolytic aluminum prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short - term; alumina prices are likely to be weak and volatile; zinc and lead are recommended to be sold on rallies [2]. - In the industrial silicon market, the price is expected to oscillate between 8400 - 9200 yuan/ton, and short - selling at high prices is an option. For lithium carbonate, due to a decline in market risk appetite, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - In the agricultural products market, soybeans are in the process of finding a bottom; corn prices are expected to oscillate within a range; oils and fats are expected to be volatile; sugar futures are recommended to be short - sold, and call options can be sold; cotton is recommended to be observed; eggs and hogs' futures prices are expected to be weak and volatile [4][5]. - In the energy and chemical market, LLDPE is expected to be volatile in the short - term and long positions can be taken at low prices in the medium - term; PVC is recommended for a reverse spread strategy; methanol is expected to rise in the near future; glass is recommended to wait and see or buy glass and short - sell soda ash; PP is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term and short - sold at high prices in the medium - term; crude oil is recommended to be short - sold at high prices; styrene is expected to be volatile in the short - term and long positions can be taken at low prices in the medium - term; soda ash is recommended to buy glass and short - sell soda ash [7][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Market - Market Performance: On Monday, precious metals rose. London gold exceeded $4600 per ounce, and London silver reached $93 per ounce [1]. - Fundamentals: The US - EU tariff war has escalated. The EU will hold an emergency summit. German Chancellor Merz said the EU would respond cautiously. Powell will support Fed Governor Cook. Domestic gold ETFs had a significant inflow of 2.2 tons. COMEX gold inventory remained at 1123.8 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory decreased by 0.1 tons to 100.0 tons. SPDR gold ETF holdings remained at 1085.7 tons. COMEX silver inventory remained at 13346 tons, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory decreased by 9.6 tons to 617.7 tons. iShares silver ETF holdings remained at 16073 tons. The Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory decreased by 161 tons to 612 tons last week. London's silver inventory increased from 27183 tons to 27814 tons at the end of December. India imported about 750 tons of silver in November [1]. - Trading Strategy: Due to the escalation of the tariff war and the steady rise of gold prices, it is recommended to go long. For silver, due to strong speculative sentiment and inventory adjustments, cautious participation is advised [1]. Base Metals Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.69% to 24090 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 175 yuan/ton, and the LME price was 3138 US dollars/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. On the demand side, the weekly operating rate of aluminum products increased slightly [2]. - Trading Strategy: With the macro - sentiment being mixed and traditional aluminum demand being weak at high prices, the market sentiment has cooled slightly. It is expected that the price will remain high and volatile in the short - term [2]. Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 0.65% to 2733 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 110 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the operating capacity of alumina plants remained stable. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - Trading Strategy: The pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. The increasing inventory intensifies the short - selling sentiment. Coupled with the decline in bauxite prices, the cost support continues to decline. It is expected that the price will be weak and volatile in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the production cuts in February [2]. Zinc and Lead - Market Performance: On January 19, the main contracts of zinc and lead closed at 24450 yuan/ton and 17185 yuan/ton respectively, with a change of +300 and +290 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spreads were - 24450 yuan/ton and - 17185 yuan/ton, and the overseas 0 - 3 month spreads were - 34.8 and - 44.18 US dollars/ton respectively. Zinc's seven - region inventory on January 19 was 12.2 million tons, an increase of 0.36 million tons compared with January 15. Lead's five - region inventory on January 19 was 3.41 million tons, an increase of 0.16 million tons compared with January 15 [2]. - Fundamentals: In the zinc market, the macro - sentiment pushed zinc prices to a high level, but the fundamentals showed weak supply and demand. Domestic consumption is in the traditional off - season. The operating rates of galvanizing and die - casting have declined, and downstream buyers are reluctant to buy at high prices. The supply has increased significantly, the processing fees have jumped, and the seven - region zinc ingot social inventory has increased, but the low LME inventory provides support. In the lead market, the domestic lead ingot inventory has increased, the consumption of electric bicycle batteries has weakened, downstream procurement is cautious, and the spot discount has widened. It is expected that lead prices will decline relatively [2]. - Trading Strategy: The sentiment in the non - ferrous sector has partially dissipated. It is recommended to sell on rallies in the short - term [2]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: On Monday morning, it opened flat and fluctuated upward throughout the day. The main 05 contract closed at 8845 yuan/ton, an increase of 240 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 2.79%. The trading volume decreased by 3702 lots to 235,000 lots. The funds invested in the variety increased by 0.06 billion yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 288 lots to 11571 lots [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the number of open furnaces decreased by 7 compared with last week, mainly due to the decrease in Sichuan. The social inventory and warehouse - receipt inventory increased slightly this week. On the demand side, both the polysilicon and organic silicon industries are promoting anti - involution. The polysilicon production in January is expected to decline to 100,000 tons. The organic silicon industry is holding up prices, and the weekly production has continued to decrease slightly. The operating rate of aluminum alloy has remained stable [3]. - Trading Strategy: Currently, there is an orange weather warning in the northwest and rumors of production cuts on the supply side this week, and the production cut expectations of polysilicon and organic silicon on the demand side still exist. The market is more concerned about the actual production cuts of large factories this week. It is rumored that the variety will turn to inventory reduction. The price is expected to oscillate between 8400 - 9200 yuan/ton, and short - selling at high prices with a light position can be considered [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: LC2605 closed at 147,260 yuan/ton, an increase of 1060 yuan/ton, with a closing price increase of 0.73% [3]. - Fundamentals: The spot price of Australian spodumene concentrate (CIF China) was 2040 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 45 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day. The SMM electric carbon price was 151,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7000 yuan/ton. The morning price of high - quality lithium carbonate by Mysteel was 146,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10550 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the weekly production was 22605 tons, a week - on - week increase of 70 tons. The production in December was 99,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4%. SMM expects the supply in January to be 97970 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%. On the demand side, the planned production of lithium iron phosphate in January is expected to be 363,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.0%; the planned production of ternary materials in January is expected to be 78,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.4%. In terms of inventory, it is expected to maintain a tight balance in January due to rush exports. The sample inventory was 109600 tons, a decrease of 263 tons. Among them, the smelting link had an inventory increase of 1345 tons, the downstream link had an inventory decrease of 888 tons, and the trader link had an inventory decrease of 720 tons. The total inventory days remained at 28 days. The number of warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 27,698 lots, an increase of 240 lots. In terms of funds, the short - term risk appetite in the market has decreased, and the invested funds have flowed out significantly to 26.77 billion yuan, an increase of 120 million yuan [3]. - Trading Strategy: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced that starting from the settlement on January 21, 2026, the daily limit range of lithium carbonate futures contracts will be adjusted to 11%, and the margin ratio will be increased. Currently, the market risk appetite has decreased, the long - buying sentiment has declined, and there is significant downward pressure on the price, with relatively large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: On Monday morning, it opened flat and fluctuated slightly throughout the day. The main 05 contract closed at 50505 yuan/ton, an increase of 305 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 0.61%. The trading volume decreased by 1649 lots to 44,571 lots. The funds invested in the variety decreased by 0.74 billion yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4560 lots [3]. - Fundamentals: In the spot market this week, downstream buyers are in a wait - and - see state. On the supply side, the weekly production decreased by more than 10%, and the industry inventory increased slightly this week. On the demand side, the planned production of silicon wafers in January remained stable, while the planned production of battery cells and components decreased by more than 10% month - on - month. The cancellation of the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products on the 9th has a certain support for component exports during the window period, and the demand side is expected to be stable during the off - season [3]. - Trading Strategy: After the "anti - monopoly" event interview, the market has fully priced in this negative news. The near - month balance sheet has changed from loose to tight supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the emotional impact brought by the subsequent feedback of the industry association on this interview event [3]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - Market Performance: The CBOT soybean market was closed overnight [4]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the near - term supply is loose, and there is a large supply expectation in South America in the long - term, and the early harvest has begun. On the demand side, the US soybean crushing is strong, and the exports have improved marginally. In general, the global supply and demand is expected to be loose [4][5]. - Trading Strategy: US soybeans are in the process of finding a bottom. The domestic far - month contracts are also suppressed by the large supply expectation in South America, and the near - month contracts depend on the game between the amount of state - owned soybean sales and customs clearances [5]. Corn - Market Performance: The corn futures price declined, while the spot price in the corn - producing areas continued to rise, and the port price declined slightly [5]. - Fundamentals: Currently, more than half of the grain has been sold, and the selling pressure is not large. Farmers are reluctant to sell and are holding up prices. The inventories of the north - south ports, downstream feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises are lower than in previous years. The northeast deep - processing enterprises are highly motivated to build inventories. It is expected that the short - term spot price will be strong. Attention should be paid to weather and policy changes [5]. - Trading Strategy: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Oils and Fats - Market Performance: The Malaysian market changed little yesterday [5]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, it is in the weak seasonal production - reduction period. On the demand side, exports have improved month - on - month. The high - frequency ITS data shows that Malaysia's exports from January 1 to 15 increased by 18% month - on - month. Overall, the near - term supply is loose, and there will be weak seasonal production reduction in the long - term [5]. - Trading Strategy: Oils and fats are expected to be volatile. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to production and biodiesel policies [5]. Sugar - Market Performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%. The basis between the Nanning spot price and the Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract was 62 yuan/ton. The estimated profit of processing Brazilian sugar after duty - paid was 407 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamentals: The international raw sugar price has dropped significantly due to the pressure from Indian production. The pressure from India will continue until February, and then the impact of Brazilian sugarcane growth and the sugar - alcohol price difference on Brazil's next - season production should be observed. Currently, it is still in a volatile pattern. From a domestic perspective, the overall production and sales progress this year is slow, and the spot pressure in the future market is greater. SR05 is priced by imports and domestic production. Under the double pressure of imported and domestic sugar, sugar will follow the fundamental logic after the macro - sentiment cools down [5]. - Trading Strategy: In the futures market, it is recommended to short - sell, and call options can be sold [5]. Cotton - Market Performance: The ICE US cotton futures price fluctuated slightly overnight, and the international crude oil price stopped falling and rebounded [5]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, India's CCI started selling cotton in the 25/26 season, and about 114,000 bales were sold on the first day. Brazil exported 192,300 tons of cotton in the first three weeks of January, with an average daily export volume of 17,500 tons, a 7% decrease compared with the average daily export volume in January of last year. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price started to fluctuate slightly, and the medium - term upward trend is still valid. In December 2025, China's cotton imports were 180,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.3% and a year - on - year increase of 31.0% [5]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see for now, with a price range of 14,400 - 14,900 yuan/ton [5]. Eggs - Market Performance: The egg futures price declined, and the egg spot price partially decreased [5]. - Fundamentals: The number of laying hens in production has decreased, but the pace of capacity reduction has slowed down. As the egg price rises, the willingness of producers to sell has increased, the arrival volume in the sales areas has increased, the purchasing enthusiasm of traders has decreased, and the room for further price increase is limited. Attention should be paid to the seasonal decline of the egg price after the stocking period ends [5]. - Trading Strategy: The room for further increase in the spot price is limited, and the futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [5]. Hogs - Market Performance: The hog futures price declined, and the hog spot price decreased in the north and increased in the south [5]. - Fundamentals: The hog slaughter volume in January is expected to be low at the beginning and high at the end. The demand is stable in the short - term and will gradually increase at the end of the month. The short - term supply pressure is not large, and the high demand supports the hog price. After the impact of snowfall ends, the hog price may decline in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the slaughter volume and slaughter rhythm recently [5]. - Trading Strategy: After the impact of snowfall ends, the futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [5]. Energy and Chemical Market LLDPE - Market Performance: The main LLDPE contract declined slightly yesterday. The low - price spot

Report Overview - Report Title: Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Weekly Report (January 12 - January 16, 2026) [1] - Report Date: January 18, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Shi Enbing [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Industrial Silicon - The market is expected to oscillate. Supply-side: The number of open furnaces decreased by 7 this week, mainly from Sichuan. Social and warehouse inventories increased slightly. Demand-side: Both the polysilicon and organic silicon industries are promoting anti-involution. Polysilicon production in January is expected to decline to 100,000 tons. The organic silicon industry is supporting prices, with weekly production continuously decreasing slightly. The aluminum alloy开工率remains stable. The market is expected to oscillate between 8400 - 9200 yuan, and short positions can be considered at high prices [3]. Polysilicon - The market is expected to oscillate. The National Energy Administration commented on the "anti-involution" in the photovoltaic industry. For mature sectors such as silicon materials and wafers, backward production capacity should be eliminated. For the component sector, sales below cost should be rectified. The spot market is in a wait-and-see state this week. Supply-side: Weekly production decreased by over 10%, and industry inventory increased slightly. Demand-side: Wafer production in January remains stable, while cell and component production decreased by over 10% month-on-month. The cancellation of photovoltaic export tax rebates on the 9th supports component exports during the window period, and demand is expected to remain stable in the off-season. After the "anti-monopoly" event, the market has fully priced in the negative news, and the near-term balance sheet has shifted from loose to tight supply-demand balance. Next week, attention should be paid to the emotional impact of the follow-up feedback from industry associations [4]. 3. Summary by Catalogue 01 Futures Data - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract price oscillated between 8605 - 8755 yuan/ton. The spread between the first and fourth contracts was 65. The trading volume decreased by 8100 lots to 371,900 lots. The capital inflow decreased by 70 million yuan to 3.233 billion yuan. The warehousing receipts increased to 56,415 tons [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract 2605 oscillated widely between 48,670 - 50,200 yuan. The warehousing receipts increased by 390 tons to 13,680 tons. The capital inflow decreased by 735 million yuan to 3.797 billion yuan [4]. 02 Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The spot price remained stable. Xinjiang Tongyang 553 was reported at 8700 yuan/ton, Kunming 421 at 10,000 yuan/ton, and Sichuan 421 at 9800 yuan/ton [3]. - **Valuation**: The electricity price in the southwest region has gradually recovered after switching to the dry-season electricity price. The production costs in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan are estimated to be 8487.5 yuan/ton, 9720 yuan/ton, and 9600 yuan/ton respectively, with profits of 312.5 yuan/ton, -380 yuan/ton, and -400 yuan/ton respectively [3]. - **Supply**: This week's production was 78,420 tons, a decrease of 1860 tons (-2.3%) from last week. The number of open furnaces decreased by 7, with an overall furnace opening rate of 27.76%. Xinjiang's production increased by 43.94% year-on-year, Sichuan's decreased by 24.73%, and Yunnan's decreased by 7.96% [3]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 3000 tons to 555,000 tons. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehousing receipts increased by 1975 tons to 56,415 tons [3]. - **Demand**: - **Polysilicon**: Production this week was 22,030 tons, a decrease of 13.3% week-on-week. The industry's total inventory was approximately 316,800 tons, an increase of 1.6% week-on-week [3]. - **Organic Silicon**: The average price of DMC remained unchanged at 13,850 yuan/ton (+1.8%). The prices of industrial chain products increased by 250 - 350 yuan. DMC production decreased by 400 tons to 43,600 tons, a decrease of 0.9% week-on-week. Weekly inventory decreased by 1300 tons, a decrease of 2.9% [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The average price of ADC12 was 23,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan week-on-week; the average price of A356 was 24,300 yuan/ton, with the price rising first and then falling. The regenerative 开工率this week was 58%. In December, passenger car production decreased by 4.2% year-on-year, and new energy vehicle production increased by 18.5% year-on-year in November [3]. - **Export**: Industrial silicon exports in November showed a year-on-year improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7% and a month-on-month increase of 21.8% [3]. 03 Polysilicon - **Price**: This week, the prices of silicon materials and wafers remained stable, while the price of cell sheets increased slightly by 4% [3][4]. - **Valuation**: The production costs in Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, Qinghai, and Xinjiang are 42,465 yuan/ton, 39,540 yuan/ton, 45,415 yuan/ton, and 43,963 yuan/ton respectively, with profits of 17,135 yuan/ton, 20,460 yuan/ton, 14,585 yuan/ton, and 14,370 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Supply**: This week's production was 22,030 tons, a decrease of 13.3% week-on-week. Production in January is expected to decline to 100,000 tons month-on-month [4]. - **Inventory**: The industry's total inventory increased by 5000 tons to approximately 316,800 tons, an increase of 1.6% week-on-week [4]. - **Silicon Wafers**: The price of N-type wafers remained stable this week. In December, wafer inventory increased by 18.92% month-on-month and 17.4% year-on-year. Wafer production in January is planned to be 45.2 GW, a decrease of 2% year-on-year and an increase of 3% month-on-month [4]. - **Cell Sheets**: The price of cell sheets increased slightly by 4% this week. Cell production in January is planned to be 39.36 GW, a decrease of 18.3% year-on-year and 15.8% month-on-month [4]. - **Components**: The price of components increased slightly by 3 - 5% this week. The latest weekly inventory was 30.4 GW, an increase of 1.33% week-on-week. Production in January is planned to be 32.47 GW, a decrease of 19% month-on-month and 17% year-on-year. Component exports in November were 20.09 GW, an increase of 22.92% year-on-year and 3.6% month-on-month. In November 2025, new photovoltaic installations were 22.02 GW, a decrease of 11.9% year-on-year and an increase of 74.8% month-on-month. The year-end installation intensity slightly exceeded expectations, and the annual total is expected to exceed 300 GW. The latest average winning bid price for photovoltaic components was 0.71 yuan/watt, with a winning bid procurement capacity of only 0.2 GW [4]. 04 Organic Silicon, Aluminum Alloy, and Export - **Organic Silicon (DMC)**: The price increased to 13,850 yuan/ton (+1.8%) this week. Weekly production decreased by 0.9% week-on-week, and inventory decreased by 2.9% week-on-week. The gross profit margin was 13.73% [3][53][55]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The prices of ADC12 and A356 oscillated within a range this week. The regenerative aluminum alloy 开工率this week was 58%. In December, passenger car production decreased by 4.2% year-on-year [3][59][61]. - **Export**: Industrial silicon exports in November decreased by 3.7% year-on-year and increased by 21.78% month-on-month [3][65].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - The overall stock strategy can be treated with cautious optimism. In the short term, the market is oscillating to digest profit - taking chips, and the medium - term oscillating upward pattern remains unchanged. Recently, be vigilant about the callback of over - traded sectors and pay attention to the impact of economic data and earnings reports on the fundamentals. Currently, the sentiment repair is relatively optimistic, the returns of medium and large - cap stocks are strengthening, the profit - making ability outside the index is poor, the basis is continuously converging, and the intraday Alpha and trading - type Alpha environments have not yet recovered. The basis cost is good, the excess environment is weak, and the tail risk is moderately high [11]. - For the long - only stock strategy, currently, it is advisable to increase positions in trading - type Alpha or intraday Alpha, and strictly control the proportion of component stocks in the long - only stock strategy with a high proportion of component stocks and a low exposure to small and micro - cap stocks. For the neutral strategy, it is recommended to seize the low - cost position - building window and increase positions in strategies that replicate T and strictly control exposure without relying on the return contribution of small and micro - cap stocks (mixed neutral strategies with basis management and index T strategies), but the cost - effectiveness of increasing positions in neutral strategies whose main returns rely on the contribution of small and micro - cap stocks is relatively low at this time [11]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Equity Market Review - **Factor Calendar Overview**: As of January 16, 2026, most broad - based indices rose this week. The CSI 500 index rose 2.18%, the CSI 1000 index rose 1.27%, the CSI 2000 index rose 0.94%, the CSI All - Share index rose 0.47%, the CSI A500 rose 0.13%, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index fell 0.57%, and the CSI Dividend fell 1.78%. Among the Barra style factors, the top three performing factors were BETA (1.34%), growth (0.53%), and momentum (0.26%); the bottom three were liquidity (- 0.53%), residual volatility (- 0.73%), and size (- 0.90%) [16]. - **Main Broad - based Index Review**: Most broad - based indices rose and most volatilities declined this week. The short - term, medium - term market activity is at a medium - high level. As of January 16, 2026, the average daily trading volume of the CSI All - Share index was 3.40 trillion yuan in the current 5 - day rolling average, and 2.51 trillion yuan in the current 20 - day rolling average [18][23][27]. - **Equity Industry Index Review**: This week, 41.9% of industries achieved positive returns, with the computer sector leading. The top three industries with the highest weekly returns were computer (3.82%), electronics (3.77%), and non - ferrous metals (3.03%); the bottom three were agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (- 3.27%), real estate (- 3.52%), and national defense and military industry (- 4.92%) [28][29]. - **Equity Style Factor Review**: Among the Barra style factors, BETA, growth, and momentum factors performed well, while liquidity, residual volatility, and size factors performed poorly. Among the Giant Tide style indices, half of them rose. The top three indices with the highest returns were small - cap growth (3.61%), mid - cap growth (3.15%), and small - cap value (0.69%); the bottom three were large - cap growth (- 0.03%), mid - cap value (- 0.13%), and large - cap value (- 2.81%) [33][39]. - **Stock Index Futures Market Review**: The discount converged, and most volatilities rose. The basis of IF, IC, and IM all converged. The estimated impact of each contract's hedging on the average return of neutral products this week was - 0.10% for 300 neutral, - 0.17% for 500 neutral, and - 0.48% for 1000 neutral. Since the beginning of this year, it has been - 0.41% for 300 neutral, - 0.66% for 500 neutral, and - 0.86% for 1000 neutral [41][46]. - **Options Market Review**: The implied volatility generally increased this week, which is expected to be beneficial for option - buying and arbitrage strategies [50]. 3.2 Strategy Environment Monitoring - **Intraday Alpha Environment for Neutral and Index - Enhancement Strategies**: Overall, it is conducive to the accumulation of intraday Alpha in terms of liquidity, volatility, and the proportion of high - volatility stocks, but the net outflow of funds is not conducive to the accumulation of intraday Alpha [55][58][61]. - **Trading - Type Alpha Environment for Neutral and Index - Enhancement Strategies**: Overall, it is not conducive to the accumulation of trading - type Alpha. Although factors such as trading volume, turnover rate, and differentiation degree are beneficial, the mid - cap style and the decrease in the number of stocks that can beat the benchmark index are significantly unfavorable [64][70]. - **Holding - Type Alpha Environment for Neutral and Index - Enhancement Strategies**: The overall environment shows that it is not conducive to the accumulation of holding - type Alpha, but some factors such as the number of limit - up and limit - down stocks, liquidity, and volatility are expected to be beneficial for Alpha accumulation [76][88][91]. - **Neutral Strategy Hedging Environment Monitoring**: The basis volatility slightly decreased, and the cost control pressure increased [104]. 3.3 Future Strategy Judgement - **20 - day Rolling Returns**: As of January 16, 2026, the relative returns of the CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and CSI 500 to the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 were in extremely high intervals, while the return of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 was in a relatively high interval [106]. - **Derivatives Option Sentiment Dimension**: The sentiment of the CSI 1000, Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, and CSI 500 is generally cautious but structurally differentiated, with the sentiment of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 being significantly bullish [110]. - **Derivatives Futures Sentiment Dimension**: The sentiment of the CSI 1000, Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, and CSI 500 is generally optimistic, and the basis of IF, IC, and IM converged, indicating that the market sentiment has recovered [113]. - **Risk Preference**: As of January 15, 2026, the margin trading balance was 2.70 trillion yuan, at an extremely high level in the past three years, indicating a high risk preference [116]. - **Style Attention Multiples**: Currently, the CSI 1000 is in a normal interval, the CSI 2000 is in a lower interval, and the CSI 500 is in an extremely high interval [122]. - **Profit Spread**: As of January 16, 2026, the profit spreads of the CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 2000, and Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 were in lower, extremely low, extremely low, and extremely low intervals respectively [123]. - **Dividend Spread**: As of January 16, 2026, the dividend spreads of the CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 2000, and Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 were all in normal intervals [127]. - **Trading Congestion of Small and Micro - Cap and TMT**: As of January 16, 2026, the trading heat of the TMT sector was in a relatively high interval, the trading heat of small and micro - cap sectors was in a normal interval, and the total market trading volume was in an extremely high interval [130].

金融研究 2026年1月19日 星期一 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 股指期货 市场表现：1 月 16 日，A 股四大股指多数下跌，其中上证指数下跌 0.26%，报收 4101.91 点；深成 指下跌 0.18%，报收 14281.08 点；创业板指下跌 0.2%，报收 3361.02 点；科创 50 指数上涨 1.35%， 报收 1514.07 点。市场成交 30,565 亿元，较前日增加 1,180 亿元。行业板块方面，电子(+2.64%)， 汽车(+1.69%)，机械设备(+1.23%)涨幅居前；传媒(-4.84%)，计算机(-2.23%)，石油石化(-1.8%)跌 幅居前。从市场强弱看，IC>IM>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,370/128/2,971。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-134、-105、74、164 亿元，分别变动+132、+139、+15、 -285 亿元。 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 7.73、5.67、6.07 与-1.24 点，基差年化收益率分别为-1.07%、 -0.78%、-1.46%与 0.46%，三年期历史分位 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It suggests different trading approaches such as long - positions, short - positions, or waiting and seeing based on the specific situation of each commodity [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Precious Metals - Gold: Market performance shows London gold at $4600/oz. Fundamentals involve geopolitical and Fed - related news. Domestic gold ETF inflow is 0.8 tons. Suggested strategy is to go long as the price is rising steadily [2]. - Silver: London silver price is stable at $90/oz. There are inventory changes and speculation factors. It is recommended to participate with caution due to high speculation sentiment [2]. 3.2 Base Metals - Aluminum: The electrolytic aluminum contract price dropped by 1.85%. Supply capacity increased slightly, demand improved marginally. Short - term price may remain high - level volatile [3]. - Alumina: The price fell 1.36%. Supply is stable, demand from electrolytic aluminum is high. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [3]. - Industrial Silicon: The price decreased by 1.43%. Supply decreased in some areas, demand has reduction expectations. The price is expected to oscillate between 8400 - 9200, and short positions can be considered at high prices [3][4]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price dropped significantly. Supply increased slightly in the short - term but may decline in January. Demand from battery materials is expected to decrease. The price is expected to correct with support at 120,000 [4]. - Polysilicon: The price increased by 3.14%. Supply decreased, demand from some downstream sectors declined. The market may shift from loose to tight balance [4]. 3.3 Black Industry - Rebar: The price dropped. Supply - demand is neutral - weak, with structural differences. It is recommended to hold short positions in the RB05 contract [5]. - Iron Ore: The price fell. Supply - demand is neutral. It is advisable to wait and see, with a reference range of 805 - 835 [6]. - Coking Coal: The price rose slightly. Supply - demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short the JM05 contract [6]. 3.4 Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans rose slightly. Supply is loose in the near - term and large in the long - term. The US soybeans are seeking a bottom, and the domestic far - month contracts are under pressure [7]. - Corn: Futures prices are strong, spot prices are rising. Supply is not under pressure, and short - term prices are expected to be strong. The futures price is expected to oscillate [7]. - Oils: The market is volatile. Supply is in weak seasonal reduction, demand for exports improved. It is expected to be volatile, and mid - term attention should be paid to production and bio - diesel policies [7]. - Sugar: The price of the SR05 contract dropped. International and domestic sugar markets are under pressure. It is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [7][8]. - Cotton: ICE cotton prices rose slightly. US cotton exports are good, Brazilian planting area decreased. It is recommended to buy at low prices with a reference range of 14400 - 14900 [8]. - Eggs: Futures prices rebounded, spot prices are stable. Supply is sufficient, and the price increase is limited. Futures prices are expected to be weak [8]. - Pigs: Futures prices are strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, spot prices rose. Supply pressure is small in the short - term, and prices are expected to be strong but may correct later [8]. 3.5 Energy Chemicals - LLDPE: The contract price oscillated slightly. Supply pressure eases, demand is weak in the agricultural film season. Short - term oscillation, long - term long positions can be considered at low prices [10]. - PVC: The price dropped 0.4%. Supply is high, demand is weak seasonally. It is recommended to do reverse arbitrage [10][11]. - PTA: PX and PTA supply are high, demand is weak in the off - season. PX can be long - term long, and the 05 contract of PTA can be used to long the processing fee [11]. - Glass: The price rose 0.5%. Supply is decreasing, demand is weak. It is recommended to long glass and short soda ash [11]. - PP: The contract price dropped slightly. Supply pressure increases, demand is stable. Short - term oscillation, long - term short positions can be considered at high prices [11]. - MEG: Supply is high, demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices [11]. - Crude Oil: Prices fluctuated this week. Supply is high, demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices [12]. - Styrene: The contract price rose slightly. Supply and demand of pure benzene are weak, styrene inventory is normal. Short - term oscillation, long - term long positions of styrene or reverse arbitrage of pure benzene can be considered [12]. - Soda Ash: The price rose 1%. Supply is large, demand is weak. It is recommended to short or long glass and short soda ash [12].

金融研究 2026年1月16日 星期五 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 股指期货 市场表现：1 月 15 日，A 股四大股指涨跌不一，其中上证指数下跌 0.33%，报收 4112.6 点；深成指 上涨 0.41%，报收 14306.73 点；创业板指上涨 0.56%，报收 3367.92 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.46%， 报收 1493.95 点。市场成交 29,385 亿元，较前日减少 10,484 亿元。行业板块方面，电子(+1.67%)， 基础化工(+1.4%)，有色金属(+1.37%)涨幅居前；综合(-3.35%)，国防军工(-2.8%)，传媒(-2.7%)跌幅 居前。从市场强弱看，IF>IC>IM>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,226/120/3,121。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-265、-244、60、450 亿元，分别变动-175、+171、+106、-101 亿元。 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为-0.02、3.27、-0.17 与 1.18 点，基差年化收益率分别为 0%、-0.43%、0.04%与-0.41%，三年期历史分位数分别为 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Different commodities have diverse market performances, fundamentals, and trading strategies. For example, in the gold market, prices are expected to rise, while in the basic metal market, opportunities for stable buying are awaited. In the black industry and energy - chemical sectors, the market is complex and requires different strategies such as holding short positions, waiting and seeing, or taking short - term and medium - term actions according to specific situations. In the agricultural product market, prices generally show a trend of shock, and corresponding trading strategies are formulated based on supply - demand relationships [1][2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold Market - **Market Performance**: On Thursday, precious metals continued to fluctuate. The price of London gold remained at $4,600 per ounce, and the price of London silver remained at $93 per ounce [1] - **Fundamentals**: In November, the total scale of US Treasury bonds held by countries and regions outside the US increased by $112.8 billion to $9.36 trillion. China's mainland holdings of US Treasury bonds decreased by $6.1 billion to $682.6 billion. Many Fed officials supported Powell, and the Trump administration decided not to impose comprehensive tariffs on key minerals such as silver and platinum. Domestic gold ETFs continued to have a small inflow of 0.8 tons [1] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on gold, and wait and see on silver [1] Basic Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: The copper price fluctuated weakly yesterday [2] - **Fundamentals**: The Trump administration did not impose tariffs on key minerals, the US dollar index strengthened, and the US Congress proposed a $2.5 - billion key mineral strategic reserve plan. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and the downstream point - price increased after the price decline [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a clearer opportunity to buy on stabilization [2] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract decreased by 0.89% to 24,375 yuan/ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 295 yuan/ton. The LME price was $3,162 per ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. The weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly [2] - **Trading Strategy**: The electrolytic aluminum price had a small correction. It is expected to maintain a shock pattern in the short term, and focus on the movement of the main funds [2] Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 0.39% to 2,789 yuan/ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 119 yuan/ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina plants remained stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2] - **Trading Strategy**: The supply of alumina is gradually recovering, the inventory is continuously accumulating, and it is expected to continue the weak shock in the short term [3] Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: On January 15, the main contracts of zinc and lead closed at 25,090 yuan/ton and 17,550 yuan/ton, up 615 yuan and 165 yuan respectively from the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spreads were - 40 yuan/ton and - 100 yuan/ton, and the overseas 0 - 3 month spreads were - 14.32 dollars/ton and - 43.33 dollars/ton respectively [3] - **Fundamentals**: The zinc market was obviously driven by macro - sentiment and funds, but the fundamental support was insufficient. The lead market showed a weak reality, with weak consumption, increasing inventory, and expanding spot discounts [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards zinc, and operate in the range or be bearish on lead [3] Other Metals (Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Polysilicon, etc.) - **Market Performance and Fundamentals**: Each metal has its own characteristics. For example, the silicon market has supply reduction and demand - side anti - involution; the lithium carbonate market has price fluctuations affected by supply and demand; the polysilicon market has production reduction and inventory changes [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The silicon market can consider short - selling on rallies; the lithium carbonate market is expected to have price support; the polysilicon market is expected to have a weak shock in the low position [3] Tin - **Market Performance**: The tin price rose first and then fell yesterday [4] - **Fundamentals**: The Trump administration did not impose tariffs on key minerals, the US dollar index strengthened, and the US Congress proposed a key mineral strategic reserve plan. The supply of tin ore remained tight, and Indonesia's tin ingot exports needed time [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for an opportunity to buy on stabilization [4] Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3,161 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [5] - **Fundamentals**: The building material apparent demand increased by 150,000 tons to 1.9 million tons, and the output decreased by 10,000 tons to 1.9 million tons. The steel supply and demand were weak, and the structural differentiation was significant [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the rebar 2605 contract, with a reference range of 3,130 - 3,180 [5] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 815 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [5] - **Fundamentals**: The iron - making water output decreased by 15,000 tons to 2.28 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 2.8 million tons to 1.66 billion tons. The fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented. The iron ore maintained a forward discount structure, and the valuation was slightly high [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude, with a reference range of 805 - 835 [5] Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1,180 yuan/ton, down 13.5 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [5] - **Fundamentals**: The iron - making water output decreased by 15,000 tons to 2.28 million tons, and the steel mill profit deteriorated. The fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented. The supply - side inventory was differentiated, and the overall inventory level was low. The futures valuation was high [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude, and aggressive investors can try to short the coking coal 2605 contract, with a reference range of 1,155 - 1,200 [5] Agricultural Product Market Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The CBOT soybean rose overnight, driven by the strengthening of US soybean oil [7] - **Fundamentals**: The supply was loose in the near term, and there was a large - supply expectation in South America in the long term. The US soybean crushing was strong, but the export was weak [7] - **Trading Strategy**: The US soybean was supported by the bullish expectation of US biodiesel, but it was still in the process of finding a bottom in the medium term. The domestic far - month contract was suppressed by the large - supply expectation in South America, and the near - month contract depended on the game between the reserve release volume and customs clearance [7] Corn - **Market Performance**: The corn futures price was strong, and the spot price rose [7] - **Fundamentals**: The grain sales progress was slower than the same period last year, and farmers were reluctant to sell. The downstream inventory increased, and the procurement enthusiasm would decline. The supply - demand contradiction was not large [7] - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range [7] Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil futures rose overnight, driven by the strengthening of US soybean oil [7] - **Fundamentals**: The supply was in a weak seasonal decline, and the export improved month - on - month. The overall pattern was loose in the near term and in a weak seasonal decline in the long term [7] - **Trading Strategy**: The oils and fats were strong, trading on the bullish expectation of US biodiesel. Pay attention to the production and biodiesel policy in the medium term [7] Cotton - **Market Performance**: The ICE US cotton futures price fell overnight, and the international crude oil price dropped significantly [7] - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton export sales increased significantly. India's cotton production was expected to increase. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton futures price began to fluctuate narrowly, and the medium - term upward trend was still valid [7] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude, with a price range reference of 14,600 - 15,000 yuan/ton [7] Eggs - **Market Performance**: The egg futures price continued to rise, and the spot price rose [7] - **Fundamentals**: The laying - hen inventory decreased, but the capacity reduction slowed down. The Spring Festival stocking boosted demand, and the inventory decreased [7] - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be strong in shock [7] Pigs - **Market Performance**: The pig futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price rose [7] - **Fundamentals**: The January slaughter volume was expected to be low first and then high, and the demand was stable in the short term. The supply pressure was not large in the short term, and the high - end - of - year demand supported the price [7] - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be strong in shock [7] Energy Chemical LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main LLDPE contract fell slightly yesterday. The spot price in North China was 6,700 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract basis was stable. The overseas market price was stable, and the import window was closed [9] - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure slowed down, and the demand in the downstream agricultural film market weakened month - on - month, while the demand in other fields was stable [9] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the market is expected to be in shock, with the upside space limited by the import window. In the medium term, it is recommended to go long on dips [9] PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 contract closed at 4,870, down 0.3% [9] - **Fundamentals**: The PVC was at the bottom and waiting for macro - guidance. The supply was at a high level, and the demand weakened seasonally. The social inventory was at a high level [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude due to the increasing supply and weakening demand [9] PTA - **Market Performance**: The PX CFR China price was $882 per ton, and the PTA East China spot price was 5,047 yuan/ton. The spot basis was - 65 yuan/ton [9] - **Fundamentals**: The PX supply was at a high level, and the PTA supply was also high. The polyester factory load decreased slightly, and the downstream entered the off - season [9] - **Trading Strategy**: The PX has strong expectations to support the price, and there may be a correction pressure in the short term. The PTA has a seasonal inventory increase in the off - season, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern will improve. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 05 - contract processing margin [9] Methanol - **Market Performance**: Due to the geopolitical situation in Venezuela and Iran, the methanol futures price rose first and then continued to adjust in shock. As of January 15, the methanol 05 contract closed at 2,273 yuan/ton [9] - **Fundamentals**: The export tax - refund cancellation of photovoltaic products had little impact on methanol. The domestic methanol production was at a high level, and the port inventory was expected to remain at a high level. The Iranian methanol loading volume in January was expected to be low [9] - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to rise in shock in the near future [9] Glass - **Market Performance**: The fg01 contract closed at 1,087, down 0.5% [10] - **Fundamentals**: The glass production reduction increased significantly. The supply decreased, and the inventory decreased from a high level. The downstream demand was in the off - season, and the price was at the bottom [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude due to the decreasing supply and weakening demand [10] PP - **Market Performance**: The main PP contract fell slightly yesterday. The spot price in East China was 6,450 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract basis was stable. The overseas market price was stable, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [10] - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure increased, and the downstream start - up rate increased month - on - month [10] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the market is expected to be in shock, with the upside space limited by the import window. In the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand pattern will improve slightly, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [10] Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The oil price dropped significantly yesterday. Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran situation, the risk premium was difficult to fully withdraw, and it may remain in shock in the short term [10] - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure was large, and the demand was in the off - season. The OECD oil product inventory was higher than the five - year average [10] - **Trading Strategy**: It is not recommended to chase the high price. Wait for an opportunity to go short on rallies, or buy out - of - the - money put options on rallies [10] Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main EB contract fluctuated slightly yesterday. The spot price in East China was 7,160 yuan/ton, and the overseas market price was stable. The import window was closed [10] - **Fundamentals**: The pure - benzene inventory was at a normal - to - high level, and the short - term supply - demand of styrene weakened. The downstream start - up rate increased month - on - month [10] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the market is expected to be in shock, with the upside space limited by the import window. In the medium - to - long term, it is recommended to go long on styrene or pure - benzene spreads on dips in the second quarter [10] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The sa05 contract closed at 1,194, down 2% [11] - **Fundamentals**: The soda - ash price was at the bottom, the expectation improved, and the inventory was at a high level. The supply was large, and the downstream demand was weak [11] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on glass and short on soda ash [11]

金融研究 2026年1月15日 星期四 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 国债期货 0.022，IRR1.44%；10 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 250018.IB，收益率变动-1.1bps，对应净基差 0.03， IRR1.39%；30 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 210005.IB，收益率变动+0.75bps，对应净基差 0.023，IRR1.47%。 资金面：公开市场操作方面，央行货币投放 2,408 亿元，货币回笼 286 亿元，净投放 2,122 亿元。 交易策略：中长线，风偏上行叠加经济复苏预期，建议 T、TL 逢高套保。 风险提示：货币政策宽松超预期，经济复苏不及预期。 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 42.17、9.1、1.73 与 3.87 点，基差年化收益率分别为-5.32%、 -1.15%、-0.38%与-1.3%，三年期历史分位数分别为 66%、82%、60%及 36%。 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 交易策略：中长期，我们维持做多经济的判断，当下以股指做多头替代有一定超额，推荐逢低配置各 品种远期合约。 风险提示：外生宏观冲击、财政扩张进度不及预期、其他系统性冲击。 市 ...