2025年12月09日 星期二 交易策略：建议议息会议前黄金部分获利了结，等待下方支撑买入机会，白银海外市场紧张，但国内连续多 日累库，建议多单暂时止盈。 风险提示：中美贸易摩擦反复，美联储货币政策意外转向 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏强运行。 | | | | | | | | 基本面：中共中央政治局会议表示明年继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和 | | | | | | | | 跨周期调节力度。国内进出口数据走强超预期。供应端，锡矿紧张延续。伦敦注销占比维持高位 | | | | 38%，结构 | | 铜 | 14 美金 | back。精废价差维持在 5500 附近历史高位。临近美联储降息落地和日本央行加息落地，美元指数略 | | | | | | | 有走强。 | | | | | | | | | 交易策略：暂时观望。 | | | | | | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 市场表现：昨日电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.3 ...

金融研究 2025年12月8日 星期一 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 | | 市场表现：12 月 日，A 股四大股指走强，其中上证指数上涨 0.7%，报收 5 3902.81 | | 点；深成指上涨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1.08%，报收 13147.68 点；创业板指上涨 1.36%，报收 3109.3 点；科创 50 指数走平，报收 | | 1326.1 | | | 点。市场成交 17,390 亿元，较前日增加 1,773 亿元。行业板块方面，非银金融(+3.5%)，有色金属 | | | | | (+2.84%)，机械设备(+2.34%)涨幅居前；银行(-0.58%)，公用事业(+0%)，交通运输(+0.07%)跌幅居 | | | | | 前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IH>IF，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,384/93/974。沪深两市，机构、主力、 | | | | 股指期货 | 大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 81、-63、-143、126 亿元，分别变动+150、+82、-149、-83 | | 亿元。 | | | 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基 ...

2025年12月08日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 单击此处输入文字。 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 基本面：临近美联储议息会议，12 降息几乎板上钉钉，市场关注哈赛特发言和美国结束 QT 的进一步安排。 | | 市场表现：昨日铜矿震荡偏强运行。 | | | | | | 供应端，铜矿紧张格局不改，周度 TC 继续下行。需求端，精废价差已经来到 5500 美金高位，持仓也大幅上 | | | | | | | 铜 | 行，伦敦结构回落到 23 美金 back。但是注销比例依然在百分之四十。 | | | | | | | | 交易策略：降息落地之前，市场情绪亢奋的情况下，铜价可能继续冲高，但是要注意回落风险。 | | | | | | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | | | | | | 市场表现：周五电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日+1.29%，收于 22345 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差-205 元/吨， | | | | | | | | | LME 价 ...

金融研究 2025年12月5日 星期五 | | 市场表现：12 月 日，A 股四大股指多数上涨，其中上证指数下跌 0.06%，报收 点；深成 4 3875.79 | | --- | --- | | | 指上涨 0.4%，报收 13006.72 点；创业板指上涨 1.01%，报收 3067.48 点；科创 50 指数上涨 1.36%， | | | 报收 1326.16 点。市场成交 15,617 亿元，较前日减少 1,219 亿元。行业板块方面，机械设备(+0.9%)， | | | 电子(+0.78%)，国防军工(+0.55%)涨幅居前；综合(-2.11%)，美容护理(-1.89%)，社会服务(-1.62%) | | | 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,454/122/3,874。沪深两市，机构、 | | | 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-69、-145、6、209 亿元，分别变动+146、+92、-83、-155 | | 股指期货 | 亿元。 | | | 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 111.46、86.61、34.37 与 14.54 点 ...

2025年12月05日 星期五 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | 贵 | 市场表现：周四贵金属价格分化，黄金震荡而白银走弱。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金 | 基本面：美国挑战者企业 | 11 | 月裁员 | 7.1 | 万人，同比增速放缓至 | 24%，但仍为 | 2022 | 年以来同期最高水平；据 | 属 | 路透报道，日本央行或将把政策利率从 | 0.5%上调至 | 0.75%，这将是自今年 | 1 | 月以来的首次加息；日本 | 30 | 年 | | | | | 3.445%的历史新高；美国财政部短期国库券、中期国债和长期国债的总额在 | 11 | 期国债收益率创下 | 月份增长 | 0.7%，达到 | 30.2 | 1.2 | ETF | 持续流入，COMEX | 1127. ...

金融研究 2025年12月4日 星期四 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：12 月 3 日，A 股四大股指有所回调，其中上证指数下跌 0.51%，报收 3878 点；深成指 下跌 0.78%，报收 12955.25 点；创业板指下跌 1.12%，报收 3036.79 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.89%， 报收 1308.37 点。市场成交 16,836 亿元，较前日增加 763 亿元。行业板块方面，交通运输(+0.69%)， 有色金属(+0.63%)，煤炭(+0.57%)涨幅居前；传媒(-2.86%)，计算机(-2.26%)，房地产(-1.53%)跌幅 居前。从市场强弱看，IF>IH>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,442/137/3,872。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-215、-238、89、364 亿元，分别变动-20、-121、+19、+123 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 127.07、102.56、28.85 与 11.28 点，基差年化收益率 分别为-14.14%、-11.82%、-5.13%与-3.07%，三年期 ...

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading strategies for each sector, highlighting the complex interplay of supply, demand, economic indicators, and geopolitical factors [1][2][3]. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Prices were in high - level oscillations on Tuesday. Fundamentals include statements from the US Treasury Secretary, ADP employment data, and various inventory changes. The strategy is to take partial profits on gold in the short - term and wait for buying opportunities at lower support levels [1]. - **Silver**: Overseas market tightness re - emerged, and short - term long positions are recommended [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Prices hit a new high. The proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts in London copper increased significantly, indicating a seller's market. The strategy is to wait and see [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract rose slightly. With increased production capacity and improved demand, it is expected to oscillate upward [2]. - **Alumina**: The price of the main contract declined. With increased supply and stable demand, it is expected to oscillate weakly [2][3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply may decrease in December, and demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to move within the range of 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract declined. Supply is increasing, and demand is expected to decrease in December. The short - term upward drive is limited, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price of the main contract rose. Production is stable, and demand is weakening. In the short - term, the price center has moved up due to a short - squeeze, and in the long - term, it depends on the progress of the storage platform [3]. - **Tin**: Prices rose significantly. Supply is tight, and there are concerns about short - squeeze risks. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply and demand are weak, and the futures are at a large discount. It is recommended to short the 2605 contract and short the steel mill's profit [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply and demand are weakening, and the futures are at a slight discount. It is recommended to exit and wait, and short the steel mill's profit [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply and demand are weakening, and the futures are at a premium. It is recommended to short the 2605 contract and short the steel mill's profit [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans continued to decline. Supply is mixed, and demand is in a game. The US soybeans are in oscillation, and the domestic market depends on tariff policies and production [5]. - **Corn**: Futures prices fluctuated, and spot prices varied regionally. Supply and demand are temporarily tight, but new production is expected to increase. The futures price is expected to oscillate upward [5][6]. - **Edible Oils**: The Malaysian palm oil market declined slightly. Supply is high in some areas and affected by floods in others, and demand is weakening. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term but oscillate overall [6]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices oscillated weakly, and domestic cotton prices rebounded. International supply and demand are affected by planting area changes, and domestic demand is mixed. It is recommended to buy at low prices [6]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices declined, and spot prices decreased slightly. Supply pressure is decreasing, and demand is stable. The price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Pigs**: Futures and spot prices declined. Supply is abundant, and demand is seasonally increasing, but prices are expected to weaken seasonally [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply pressure is rising but slowing, and demand is weakening. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy far - month contracts at low prices [7]. - **PVC**: The price continued to oscillate at the bottom. Supply is increasing, and demand is seasonally weakening. It is recommended to short [8]. - **Glass**: The price rebounded from the bottom. Supply is affected by cold - repair, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **PP**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy far - month contracts at low prices [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices rose and then fell. Supply is affected by sanctions and production plans, and demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Styrene**: The price of the main contract oscillated slightly. Supply and demand are improving marginally, and in the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy styrene profit at low prices [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of the main contract declined. Supply and demand are balanced, and the price is affected by coal prices. It is recommended to wait and see [9].

金融研究 2025年12月3日 星期三 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：12 月 2 日，A 股四大股指有所回调，其中上证指数下跌 0.42%，报收 3897.71 点；深成 指下跌 0.68%，报收 13056.7 点；创业板指下跌 0.69%，报收 3071.15 点；科创 50 指数下跌 1.24%， 报收 1320.16 点。市场成交 16,073 亿元，较前日减少 2,822 亿元。行业板块方面，石油石化(+0.71%)， 轻工制造(+0.55%)，家用电器(+0.43%)涨幅居前；传媒(-1.75%)，有色金属(-1.36%)，计算机(-1.34%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IF>IH>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,541/171/3,739。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-195、-116、70、241 亿元，分别变动-235、-72、+85、+222 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 147.78、112.9、36.53 与 13.27 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-15.79%、-12.53%、-6.27%与-3.4 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals, presenting market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies for each commodity [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Basic Metals - **Copper**: Market performance shows copper prices rising, falling, and then stabilizing. The fundamentals include a weakening US dollar index and tight copper ore supply, with processing fees remaining low. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.21%. The fundamentals are that the supply is increasing slightly, and the demand is improving marginally. The trading strategy is that aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 0.26%. The fundamentals show that the supply is increasing, and the demand is stable. The trading strategy is that alumina prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract price decreased by 1.86%. The fundamentals are that the supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is stable. The trading strategy is to maintain the view that the price will fluctuate between 8600 - 9400, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price decreased by 0.39%. The fundamentals are that the supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to decline. The trading strategy is to wait and see due to strong current - weak Q1 expectations [1][2]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main contract price decreased by 2.41%. The fundamentals are that the supply is stable, the demand is weakening, and the domestic fourth - quarter photovoltaic installation growth is under pressure. The trading strategy is to focus on the progress of the storage and procurement platform, and the price may fluctuate around 53000 - 55000 without new progress [2]. - **Tin**: The price fluctuated. The fundamentals are that the supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is stable. The trading strategy is to wait and see [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main contract price decreased. The fundamentals are that the inventory is decreasing, the supply - demand is weak, and the futures are at a large discount. The trading strategy is to try short - selling the 2605 contract and short - selling the steel mill profit [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price decreased. The fundamentals are that the supply - demand is weakening, the iron ore is in a forward discount structure, and the valuation is moderately high. The trading strategy is to wait and see and short - sell the steel mill profit [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The main contract price decreased. The fundamentals are that the supply - demand is weakening, the futures are at a premium, and the valuation is high. The trading strategy is to try short - selling the 2605 contract and short - selling the steel mill profit [3][4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight CBOT soybean price fell. The fundamentals are that the supply is expected to be abundant in the long - term, and the demand is mixed. The trading strategy is to wait for a new driver, and the domestic market depends on tariff policy and production [4]. - **Corn**: The futures price rose and then fell. The fundamentals are that short - term supply is tight, but long - term supply is expected to increase. The trading strategy is that the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [4]. - **Oils**: The Malaysian market rose. The fundamentals are that the supply is high in the short - term, and the demand is weak. The trading strategy is that the price is expected to be strong in the short - term but fluctuate overall, and attention should be paid to production and policies [4]. - **Sugar**: The 01 contract price fell. The fundamentals are that the international market may decline in the long - term, and the domestic market will face pressure from increased production and imports in the fourth quarter. The trading strategy is to short in the futures market and sell call options [4]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price fluctuated narrowly. The fundamentals are that the international demand is weak, and the domestic market has hedging pressure. The trading strategy is to buy at low prices in the 13600 - 13900 range [4][5]. - **Eggs**: The futures and spot prices fell. The fundamentals are that the supply pressure is decreasing, and the demand is stable. The trading strategy is that the futures price is expected to fluctuate [5]. - **Hogs**: The futures price was weak. The fundamentals are that the supply is abundant, and the demand is expected to increase seasonally. The trading strategy is that the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract fluctuated slightly. The fundamentals are that the supply pressure is increasing but at a slower pace, and the demand is weakening. The trading strategy is to expect short - term weak fluctuations and recommend buying far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [6]. - **PVC**: The V05 contract price rose. The fundamentals are that the supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is high. The trading strategy is to short [6]. - **PTA**: The PX supply is high, and the PTA supply is expected to increase in the long - term. The demand for polyester is in the off - season. The trading strategy is to take profit on long PX orders and stop shorting the processing fee [6][7]. - **Rubber**: The RU2601 contract price fluctuated. The fundamentals are that the raw material price is weakening, and the inventory is increasing. The trading strategy is short - term weak fluctuations and band trading [7]. - **Glass**: The FG01 contract price fell. The fundamentals are that the supply is decreasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. The trading strategy is to wait and see [7]. - **PP**: The main contract fluctuated slightly. The fundamentals are that the supply is increasing, the demand is weakening. The trading strategy is short - term weak fluctuations and recommend buying far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [7]. - **MEG**: The spot price is stable. The fundamentals are that the short - term supply - demand is improving, and the medium - term supply - demand will accumulate inventory. The trading strategy is to short at high prices and take profit on short positions [8]. - **Crude Oil**: The price fell. The fundamentals are that the supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season. The trading strategy is to hold short positions [8]. - **Styrene**: The main contract rebounded slightly. The fundamentals are that the pure benzene supply - demand is improving marginally but the contradiction is still large, and the styrene supply - demand is improving. The trading strategy is short - term fluctuations and recommend buying styrene profit at low prices in the medium - term [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa01 contract price rose. The fundamentals are that the supply is recovering, and the demand is stable. The trading strategy is to wait and see [8].

金融研究 2025年12月2日 星期二 招商期货有限公司 | | 市场表现：12 月 日，A 股四大股指全线上涨，其中上证指数上涨 0.65%，报收 点；深成 1 3914.01 | | --- | --- | | | 指上涨 1.25%，报收 13146.72 点；创业板指上涨 1.31%，报收 3092.5 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.72%， | | | 报收 1336.76 点。市场成交 18,894 亿元，较前日增加 2,917 亿元。行业板块方面，有色金属(+2.85%)， | | | 通信(+2.81%)，电子(+1.58%)涨幅居前；农林牧渔(-0.43%)，环保(-0.23%)，房地产(-0.06%)跌幅居 | | | 前。从市场强弱看，IF>IC>IH>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 3,396/184/1,868。沪深两市，机构、主力、 | | 股指期货 | 大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 40、-44、-15、19 亿元，分别变动-52、-20、+65、+7 亿元。 | | | 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 171.28、127.83、35.49 与 14.08 点， ...