1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, broad - based indices generally rose, with most volatility declining. Market activity was at a medium - high level, and 77.4% of industries achieved positive returns. The current sentiment repair is relatively optimistic, component stock returns have strengthened, the profitability outside the index is poor, the basis has continuously converged to the growth level, and the intraday Alpha and trading - type Alpha environments have warmed up. Overall, the basis cost is favorable, the excess environment is weak, and the tail risk is moderately high. For long - only stock strategies, one can increase positions in trading - type Alpha or intraday Alpha, and strictly control the proportion of component stocks in long - only stock strategies with low exposure to small and micro - cap stocks. Neutral strategies can seize the window of low - cost position building and increase positions in replication T and strictly controlled exposure strategies that do not rely on the return contribution of small and micro - cap stocks [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Equity Market Review - **Broad - based Index Performance**: As of December 26, 2025, this week, the CSI 500 index rose 4.03%, the CSI 1000 index rose 3.76%, the CSI 2000 index rose 3.06%, the CSI All - Share index rose 2.78%, the CSI A500 rose 2.75%, the SSE 50 index rose 1.95%, and the CSI Dividend index rose 0.55%. From the perspective of Barra style factors, the top three factors with the highest returns this week were BETA (1.16%), mid - cap (0.60%), and momentum (0.58%); the bottom three were leverage (0.03%), value (- 0.03%), and profitability (- 0.11%) [14]. - **Industry Index Performance**: This week, 77.4% of industries achieved positive returns, with the non - ferrous metals sector leading. The top three industries with the highest weekly returns were non - ferrous metals (6.43%), national defense and military industry (6.00%), and power equipment (5.37%); the bottom three were banks (- 1.01%), social services (- 1.05%), and beauty care (- 1.08%) [25]. - **Style Factor Performance**: The BETA, mid - cap, and momentum factors performed well, while the leverage, value, and profitability factors performed poorly. Among the Juchao stock style indices, the top three with the highest returns were small - cap growth (5.13%), mid - cap growth (3.28%), and large - cap growth (2.70%); the bottom three were mid - cap value (2.64%), small - cap value (2.19%), and large - cap value (- 0.02%) [27][32]. - **Futures Market**: The basis of IF, IC, and IM converged, and the basis volatility slightly increased, but the cost control pressure decreased. The estimated average returns of neutral products affected by each contract's hedging this week were - 0.38% for 300 neutral, - 0.50% for 500 neutral, and - 0.63% for 1000 neutral. Since the beginning of this year, the estimated average returns of neutral products affected by each contract's hedging were - 1.96% for 300 neutral, - 6.13% for 500 neutral, and - 7.71% for 1000 neutral [40]. - **Options Market**: This week, most implied volatilities declined, which is expected to be unfavorable for option - buying and arbitrage strategies [44]. 3.2 Strategy Environment Monitoring - **Intraday Alpha Environment**: Overall, it is conducive to intraday Alpha accumulation. The daily average trading volume of the stock market has slightly increased, the average intraday amplitude cross - sectional volatility is at a normal level, the proportion of high - volatility stocks is normal, and the short - term volatility of major indices is decreasing. Although the stock market has a daily net outflow, considering the market's upward trend, the actual capital inflow is beneficial for intraday Alpha accumulation [48][51][54]. - **Trading - type Alpha Environment**: The weekly average trading volume and turnover rate of the stock market are at a relatively high level, which is conducive to trading - type Alpha accumulation. The stock market shows a small - cap style, which is beneficial for trading - type Alpha accumulation, but the number of stocks that can beat the benchmark index has dropped to a low level, which is significantly unfavorable for trading - type Alpha accumulation [55][62]. - **Holding - type Alpha Environment**: It is generally conducive to holding - type Alpha accumulation and stability. The short - term returns of major broad - based indices are mostly positive, the trend smoothness of some factors is high, the style is small - cap, the number of daily limit and down - limit stocks is normal, the stock liquidity is normal, the volatility is high, the style return difference volatility is decreasing, the industry correlation coefficient is normal, and the factor rotation speed is at a high level [67][73][84]. - **Neutral Strategy Hedging Environment**: The basis of IF, IC, and IM converged, the basis volatility slightly increased, and the cost control pressure decreased [91]. 3.3 Future Strategy研判 - **Return Performance**: Based on the 20 - day rolling return, the relative returns of the CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and CSI 500 compared to the SSE 50 are in the normal or extremely high range, and the SSE 50 return is in the relatively high range [93]. - **Derivatives Market Sentiment**: In the options market, the sentiment towards the CSI 1000, SSE 50, and CSI 500 is generally cautious but shows structural differentiation. In the futures market, the basis of IF, IC, and IM converged, and market sentiment has recovered [97][102]. - **Risk Preference**: As of December 25, 2025, the margin trading balance was 2.53 trillion yuan, at the highest level in the past three years, indicating a high risk preference [105]. - **Trading Heat**: The trading heat of the SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000 is at different levels, and the market trading volume is at an extremely high level [107]. - **Style Attention Multiple**: The CSI 1000 is in the relatively high range, the CSI 2000 is in the normal range, and the CSI 500 is in the extremely high range [110]. - **Profit Spread and Dividend Spread**: The profit spreads of the CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 2000, and SSE 50 are at different levels, mostly in the normal or extremely low range. The dividend spreads are all in the normal range [111][113]. - **Trading Crowding**: The trading heat of the TMT sector is in the low range, the trading heat of small - micro - cap sectors is in the high range, and the overall market trading volume is in the extremely high range [117].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes multiple commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It provides market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each sector, suggesting various actions such as buying, selling, or holding based on the specific market conditions [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Gold**: Overseas precious metals rose on Friday, with silver up over 10%. The RMB strengthened, and the CME will raise margins. Gold ETFs saw small inflows. Suggest going long on gold and staying on the sidelines for silver due to high volatility [1]. - **Silver**: Speculative sentiment is strong, with short - term upside potential but increased future volatility. It's recommended to wait and see [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price continued to rise, driven by precious metals and short - covering. Supply of copper ore remains tight, while downstream demand is weak. It's advisable to wait and see due to high market sentiment [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with high - load production on the supply side and a slight decline in demand. The positive macro - atmosphere and copper price breakthrough boost sentiment [2]. - **Alumina**: It has staged a rebound but is constrained by over - supply. The short - term trend may be weak rebounds with high volatility [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The market is expected to oscillate between 8400 - 9200 yuan/ton. With balanced supply and demand and potential production cut rumors, it's better to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The current price is likely to rise due to the anticipation of higher prices in 2026, despite the Q1 demand slump [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price may rise, but short - term chasing risks are high. It's recommended to wait for price corrections to enter the market [3]. - **Tin**: The price continued to rise. Supply recovery is slow, and demand is weak. It's advisable to wait and see due to high market sentiment [3][4]. Black Industry - **Rebar Steel**: The market is expected to oscillate. Supply and demand are weak, and the futures are undervalued. It's recommended to wait and see and consider shorting [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The market will likely oscillate. Supply and demand are weak, and the valuation is moderately high. It's better to wait and see [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The market is expected to oscillate. Supply and demand are weak, and the futures are overvalued. It's recommended to wait and see and consider shorting [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean market is likely to be volatile, depending on South American production. The domestic market is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term [6]. - **Corn**: The futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate. Pay attention to weather and policy changes [6][7]. - **Oils and Fats**: The market is expected to be volatile, with a focus on future production and bio - diesel policies [7]. - **Sugar**: The futures market suggests shorting, and selling call options is also recommended [7]. - **Cotton**: It's recommended to buy at low prices, with a price reference range of 14300 - 14800 yuan/ton [7]. - **Eggs**: The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [7]. - **Hogs**: The futures price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with attention to recent slaughter volume [7]. - **Apples**: It's recommended to wait and see and pay attention to post - holiday sales [8]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: In the short - term, the market may be weak and volatile. In the long - term, it's advisable to go long on far - month contracts [8]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand is weak, and the valuation is low. An inverse spread strategy is recommended [8]. - **PTA**: PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term, and there are opportunities to go long on PTA processing margins in the 05 contract [8]. - **Rubber**: It's recommended to gradually close long positions around 16000 yuan/ton due to weak upward momentum [9]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand is downward, and the valuation is low. An inverse spread strategy is recommended [9]. - **PP**: In the short - term, the market may be weak and volatile. In the long - term, it's advisable to go long on far - month contracts [9]. - **MEG**: With a continuous inventory build - up, it's recommended to short at high prices [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The supply is likely to exceed demand at the end of the year and in Q1. It's recommended to short at high prices, considering geopolitical events [9][10]. - **EB**: In the short - term, the market may oscillate. In the second quarter, it's advisable to go long on styrene or use the inverse spread strategy for pure benzene [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing while demand is weak, and the valuation is low. An inverse spread strategy is recommended [10].

2025年12月26日 星期五 金融研究 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 | | 市场表现：12 月 日，A 股四大股指多数上涨，其中上证指数上涨 0.47%，报收 点；深 25 3959.62 | | --- | --- | | | 成指上涨 0.33%，报收 13531.41 点；创业板指上涨 0.3%，报收 3239.34 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.23%， | | | 报收 1349.06 点。市场成交 19,439 亿元，较前日增加 467 亿元。行业板块方面，国防军工(+2.91%)， | | | 轻工制造(+1.59%)，机械设备(+1.51%)涨幅居前；综合(-1.12%)，有色金属(-0.77%)，商贸零售 | | | (-0.47%)跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IH>IF，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 3,768/220/1,469。沪深两 | | | 市，机构、主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-57、-147、-47、251 亿元，分别变动-171、-38、 | | 股指期货 | +104、+104 亿元。 | | | 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 105. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Different trading strategies are proposed for various commodity futures based on their market performance and fundamentals. For example, for gold, it's recommended to go long; for some metals and energy - related commodities, strategies include going long at low prices, short - term or long - term trading based on supply - demand changes, and some suggest waiting and seeing [1][2][3] - The market conditions of different commodity futures are affected by multiple factors such as exchange rates, production capacity, inventory levels, and seasonal demand changes [2][3][7] Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Christmas led to overseas market closures, while domestic night - trading saw gold and silver strengthen. The RMB appreciated, and the Japanese government planned a large - scale budget. With central bank gold purchases supporting prices, it's recommended to go long. Silver has high overseas market tension and domestic speculative sentiment, so it's advised to wait and see [1] - **Silver**: Overseas market is tight, domestic market is full of speculative sentiment, and recent fluctuations have increased. It's recommended to wait and see [1] Base Metals - **Copper**: The price reached a new high, and the supply of copper ore and refined copper remained tight. It's recommended to buy on dips [2] - **Aluminum**: The price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract decreased slightly. Supply increased slightly, and demand decreased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [2] - **Alumina**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. Supply and demand were relatively stable. Before large - scale production cuts, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [2] Industrial Metals - **Silicon**: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. Supply and demand were balanced, social inventory started to decline, and the market was expected to fluctuate weakly between 8000 - 9000. It's recommended to wait and see [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract decreased. Supply increased, demand decreased, and there was expected to be short - term downward pressure on the price. It's recommended to wait and see before the price adjustment between upstream and downstream is completed [3] - **Polysilicon**: The price of the main contract increased significantly. Supply was stable, demand decreased, and the market was expected to decline in January. It's recommended to try to go long at low prices after the price returns to the spot trading range [3] - **Tin**: The price fluctuated strongly. Supply was tight, and the market sentiment was optimistic. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. It's recommended to wait and see [3] Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the main contract decreased. Demand was weak, supply decreased, and the futures were at a large discount. It's recommended to wait and see and try to short the 2605 contract [5] - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. Supply and demand were weak, and the futures were at a discount. It's recommended to wait and see [5] - **Coking Coal**: The price of the main contract decreased. Supply and demand were weak, and the futures were at a premium. It's recommended to wait and see and try to short the 09 contract [5] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The overseas CBOT soybean market was closed. Supply was loose, demand was mixed, and the market was expected to be weak in the US and show a near - strong and far - weak pattern in China [6] - **Corn**: The futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price increased slightly. Supply and demand were balanced, and the price was expected to fluctuate. It's recommended to wait and see [6][7] - **Oils and Fats**: The Malaysian market was closed. Supply decreased seasonally, demand increased slightly, and the market was expected to fluctuate. It's recommended to pay attention to production and policies [7] - **Cotton**: The US market was closed. International supply increased, and domestic prices rose. It's recommended to go long at low prices [7] - **Eggs**: The futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price increased. Supply was sufficient, and the price was expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - **Hogs**: The futures price fluctuated, and the spot price fluctuated. Supply was abundant, demand was expected to increase seasonally, and the price was expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [7] Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract fluctuated slightly. Supply pressure increased but slowed down, demand decreased, and the price was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and improve in the long term. It's recommended to go long on far - month contracts at low prices [8][9] - **PVC**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. Supply increased, demand decreased seasonally, and inventory was high. It's recommended to use reverse arbitrage [9] - **PTA**: PX supply was abundant, PTA supply decreased in the short term and was expected to accumulate inventory in the medium term. It's recommended to maintain a long - term long position on PX and look for opportunities to go long on PTA processing fees [9] - **Glass**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. Supply and demand were weak, and inventory was high. It's recommended to use reverse arbitrage [9] - **PP**: The main contract fluctuated slightly. Supply increased, demand decreased, and the price was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and improve in the long term. It's recommended to go long on far - month contracts at low prices [9] - **MEG**: The spot price was stable. Supply was high, and the market was expected to accumulate inventory in the medium term. It's recommended to go short at high prices [10] - **Crude Oil**: The price fluctuated due to geopolitical events. Supply pressure was large, demand was in the off - season, and inventory was high. It's recommended to go short at high prices [10] - **Styrene**: The main contract rebounded slightly. Supply and demand were weak, and inventory was at a normal - high level. It's recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long on styrene or use reverse arbitrage on pure benzene in the medium - term [10] - **Soda Ash**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. Supply increased, and demand was weak. It's recommended to use reverse arbitrage [10]

金融研究 2025年12月25日 星期四 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：12 月 24 日，A 股四大股指继续反弹，其中上证指数上涨 0.53%，报收 3940.95 点；深 成指上涨 0.88%，报收 13486.42 点；创业板指上涨 0.77%，报收 3229.58 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.9%， 报收 1352.13 点。市场成交 18,972 亿元，较前日减少 241 亿元。行业板块方面，国防军工(+2.88%)， 电子(+2.12%)，建筑材料(+1.72%)涨幅居前；农林牧渔(-0.85%)，煤炭(-0.7%)，食品饮料(-0.36%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,125/200/1,132。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 114、-110、-151、147 亿元，分别变动+273、+53、-204、 -122 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 115.78、74.64、29.66 与 0.58 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-10.42%、-6.86%、-4.32%与-0.1 ...

2025年12月25日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.61%，收于 22330 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差-270 元/吨， LME 价格 2965.5 美元/吨。 | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，周度铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | 铝 | 交易策略：宏观环境偏暖和海外供应扰动为价格提供支撑，但下游开工率维持低位，现货跟涨乏力，预计铝 | | | 价维持震荡整理。 | | | 风险提示：海外供应扰动。 | | | 市场表现：昨日氧化铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日+1.35%，收于 2554 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 78 元/吨。 | | 氧 | 基本面：供应方面，氧化铝厂运行产能保持稳定。需求方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产。 | | 化 | 交易策略：氧化铝运行产能维持高位，库存持续攀升，叠加铝土矿、煤炭价格持续下行，成本支撑力度有限， | | 铝 | 预计价格维持震荡偏弱。 | | | 风险提示：几内亚矿端扰动，大规模集中减 ...

金融研究 2025年12月24日 星期三 现券：目前活跃合约为 2603 合约，2 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 250017.IB，收益率变动-1bps，对应净 基差-0.072，IRR1.72%；5年期国债期货CTD券为2500801.IB，收益率变动-1.5bps，对应净基差-0.134， IRR1.99%；10 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 250018.IB，收益率变动-2.3bps，对应净基差-0.127，IRR1.96%； 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：12 月 23 日，A 股四大股指继续反弹，其中上证指数上涨 0.07%，报收 3919.98 点；深 成指上涨 0.27%，报收 13368.99 点；创业板指上涨 0.41%，报收 3205.01 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.36%， 报收 1340.02 点。市场成交 19,214 亿元，较前日增加 392 亿元。行业板块方面，电力设备(+1.12%)， 建筑材料(+0.88%)，电子(+0.58%)涨幅居前；社会服务(-2.07%)，美容护理(-1.65%)，商贸零售(-1.6%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>I ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes multiple commodity futures markets, including basic metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It provides market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies for each commodity, suggesting different trading approaches based on supply - demand dynamics, price trends, and other factors [1][4][6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Basic Metals - **Copper**: Market hit a new high. Supply is tight, and it's recommended to buy on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: Price is expected to oscillate. Supply is increasing, while demand is weak [1]. - **Alumina**: Price is likely to be weak and oscillating. Supply is stable, and cost support is limited [1]. - **Zinc**: It's advised to sell on rallies. Supply is abundant, and demand is in the off - season [1]. - **Lead**: Interval trading with a focus on buying at lows is suggested. Supply is mixed, and demand is differentiated [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly. Supply and demand are balanced, and it's recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: If downstream destocking is strong, the price may rise in the short - term; otherwise, there is a risk of correction [2]. - **Polysilicon**: It's advisable to try buying on dips after the price returns to the spot trading range. Supply decline is less than demand decline, and inventory is expected to increase [2]. - **Tin**: Wait for opportunities to buy on dips. Macro sentiment is positive, but inventory is rising [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Trade the expectation of South American bumper harvest and weak exports. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose [4]. - **Corn**: Futures price will oscillate. Spot price is expected to be weak due to reduced purchasing enthusiasm [4]. - **Oils and Fats**: The market may oscillate, and varieties will be differentiated. Pay attention to production and bio - diesel policies [4]. - **Sugar**: Short - sell in the futures market and sell call options. International and domestic prices are under pressure [4]. - **Eggs**: Futures price is expected to oscillate weakly. Supply is sufficient, and demand is affected by price [4]. - **Pigs**: Futures price will oscillate. Supply is abundant, and demand is seasonally increasing [5]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Short - term: oscillate weakly; long - term: buy far - month contracts on dips. Supply pressure eases, and demand is in the off - season [6]. - **PVC**: Use reverse arbitrage. Supply increases, and demand decreases seasonally [6]. - **PTA**: PX has a strong outlook, and PTA may see inventory accumulation in the off - season. Consider buying processing margins in the 05 contract [6]. - **Glass**: Use reverse arbitrage. Supply and demand are weak, and inventory is high [7]. - **PP**: Short - term: oscillate weakly; long - term: buy far - month contracts on dips. Supply increases, and demand weakens [7]. - **MEG**: Take profit in the short - term and watch for mid - term destocking opportunities. Supply is high, and inventory is accumulating [7]. - **Crude Oil**: Short - sell on rallies. Supply is abundant, and demand is in the off - season [7]. - **Styrene**: Short - term: oscillate weakly; mid - term: buy styrene on dips or use reverse arbitrage. Supply and demand are weak [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Short - sell or use reverse arbitrage. Supply increases, and demand is weak [8].

金融研究 2025年12月23日 星期二 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 股指期货 市场表现：12 月 22 日，A 股四大股指继续反弹，其中上证指数上涨 0.69%，报收 3917.36 点；深 成指上涨 1.47%，报收 13332.73 点；创业板指上涨 2.23%，报收 3191.98 点；科创 50 指数上涨 2.04%， 报收 1335.25 点。市场成交 18,822 亿元，较前日增加 1,335 亿元。行业板块方面，通信(+4.28%)， 综合(+2.63%)，电子(+2.62%)涨幅居前；传媒(-0.61%)，银行(-0.52%)，美容护理(-0.45%)跌幅居前。 从市场强弱看，IC>IM>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,983/212/2,261。沪深两市，机构、主力、大 户、散户全天资金分别净流入 103、-85、-84、67 亿元，分别变动+48、+14、+38、-100 亿元。 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 135.15、92.86、36.02 与 3.63 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-11.69%、-8.2%、-5.01%与-0.77%，三年期历史分 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The gold market shows strength with the Fed's expected rate - cut, suggesting a long - position for gold and a wait - and - see approach for silver [1]. - For base metals, different strategies are recommended for each metal based on their market performance, fundamentals, such as buying copper on dips, expecting aluminum to oscillate in the short - term, and predicting alumina to decline with oscillations [2]. - In the black industry, a wait - and - see approach is generally recommended, with attempts to short certain contracts like螺纹2605 and焦煤09 [5]. - In the agricultural products market, various trading strategies are proposed according to the supply - demand situation of different products, such as trading South American soybean bumper harvest expectations and weak exports for soybeans, and shorting sugar futures [6]. - For energy and chemical products, different trading strategies are given based on the supply - demand balance, including short - term oscillations and long - term improvement for some products, and short - selling for others [7][8]. 3. Summary by Category Gold and Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: International gold prices broke through and strengthened, standing above $4400 per ounce, and domestic gold prices exceeded 1000 yuan. Silver inventories showed different trends in different markets [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Fed officials' statements, geopolitical events, and inventory changes in gold and silver affected the market. For example, the Fed may not cut rates until next spring, and there were changes in gold and silver inventories in different exchanges and ETFs [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long gold and wait - and - see for silver [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices oscillated [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The implementation time of US refined copper tariffs may be postponed, and the supply of copper mines remained tight [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.16% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect aluminum prices to oscillate in the short - term within the current high - level range [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 0.08% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Alumina plants' operating capacity remained stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect alumina prices to decline with oscillations [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the沪锌2601 contract increased by 0.09% compared to the previous trading day, and social inventories increased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: LME zinc inventories increased significantly, and the consumption off - season deepened [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rallies [3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the沪铅2601 contract increased by 0.27% compared to the previous trading day, and social inventories decreased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of primary lead recovered after maintenance, while the supply of recycled lead decreased significantly. The lead battery start - up rate decreased slightly [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a range, with a focus on long - positions at low prices [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract decreased by 1.09% compared to the previous trading day, and the position increased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of open furnaces decreased, and social inventories decreased. The demand from related industries remained stable [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate weakly in the range of 8000 - 9000, and adopt a wait - and - see approach [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 increased by 2.7% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The price of Australian lithium concentrate increased, production increased, and demand decreased in some sectors. December saw inventory reduction [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect short - term price increase with oscillations [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract decreased by 2.32% compared to the previous trading day, and the position decreased [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply remained stable, demand decreased, and inventories increased slightly [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider long - positions on dips after the price returns to the spot trading range [4]. Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The螺纹2605 contract increased by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills continued to make losses, production might decline marginally, and the futures were at a large discount [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and attempt to short螺纹2605 [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The铁矿2605 contract decreased by 1.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Iron ore supply and demand were weak, and the port inventory increased [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The焦煤2605 contract increased by 19 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Coking coal supply and demand were weak, and the futures were at a premium [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and attempt to short焦煤09 [5]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The CBOT soybean rebounded overnight [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Global soybean supply - demand is expected to be loose, with strong US soybean crushing and slow exports [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade South American soybean bumper harvest expectations and weak exports, and the domestic market is driven down by cost in the short - term [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices are weak, and spot prices slightly declined [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress slowed down, and downstream demand decreased [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market rose in the short - term [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is in seasonal decline but with year - on - year growth, and demand shows an increase in exports [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats may enter an oscillation phase with product differentiation [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The郑糖05 contract increased by 0.41% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: International sugar prices rebounded slightly, and the domestic market followed with a smaller increase. The long - term global sugar production is expected to increase [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short sugar futures and sell call options [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices are weak, and spot prices increased [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of laying hens decreased, and demand is affected by price changes [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices oscillate, and spot prices show a north - up and south - down pattern [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is still abundant, and demand is expected to increase seasonally [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Energy and Chemical Products LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE main contract continued to decline slightly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure eases, and demand weakens in the agricultural film sector [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for far - month contracts [7]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 decreased by 1.7% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increases, demand weakens, and inventory is at a high level [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell or use reverse spreads [7]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PX and PTA prices are at certain levels with a specific basis [7]. - **Fundamentals**: PX supply is high, and PTA has short - term supply decline and medium - term inventory accumulation pressure [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long - position PX in the medium - term and look for opportunities to long PTA processing margins in 05 [7]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 decreased by 1.5% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Glass prices decline, and inventory accumulates. Supply and demand are both weak [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Use reverse spreads [7]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP main contract continued to decline slightly [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increases, demand weakens, and the export window opens [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for far - month contracts [8]. MEG - **Market Performance**: MEG has a certain spot price and basis [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is high, inventory accumulates, and demand weakens in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Take profit in the short - term and look for inventory reduction opportunities in the medium - term for 05 [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices rose due to short - term supply reduction [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is large, and demand is in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell crude oil on rallies [8]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract rebounded slightly [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is weak in the short - term, and demand is in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for styrene and related spreads in the second quarter [8]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 decreased by 0.8% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increases with new device production, and demand from photovoltaic glass is weak with high inventory [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Use reverse spreads [9].