2025年11月20日 星期四 金融研究 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 | | 市场表现：11 月 日，A 股四大股指涨跌不一，其中上证指数上涨 0.18%，报收 点；深 19 3946.74 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 成指下跌 0%，报收 13080.09 点；创业板指上涨 0.25%，报收 3076.85 点；科创 50 指数下跌 | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.97%，报收 1344.8 点。市场成交 17,427 亿元，较前日减少 2,033 亿元。行业板块方面，有色金 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 属(+2.39%)，石油石化(+1.67%)，国防军工(+1.11%)涨幅居前；综合(-3.08%)，房地产(-2.09%)， | | | | | | | 1,196/76/4,173。沪 | | | | | | 传媒(-1.72%)跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity futures market shows complex trends with different metals, agricultural products, and energy - chemical products having their own supply - demand situations, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended based on these situations [2][7][8]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market strengthened on Wednesday, but London gold failed to hold above $4100. Fed's internal divergence on December rate - cut, employment report changes, and domestic gold ETF inflows are key factors. Suggest buying at support levels [2]. - **Silver**: Supply tightness is gradually easing. Recommend gradually reducing long positions [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Price stabilized yesterday. With improved risk appetite and low rate - cut expectations, and considering the supply - demand situation, it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum price may maintain oscillatory adjustment after a decline, with improved spot trading but continued reduction of long positions in the main contract [2]. - **Alumina**: Supply - demand surplus persists, and the price is expected to be weak and oscillatory [2]. - **Zinc**: Price declined yesterday. Due to supply shortages and demand - side factors, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Price rebounded significantly. With planned production cuts and cost support, long positions can gradually take profits, and short positions should be entered with caution [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Current demand is strong, but long - term demand may decline. It is recommended to try long positions at low levels and be cautious about chasing highs, or consider selling put options [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: Price rose. Near - month contracts are strong, but it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs due to factors like slow progress of the storage platform [3]. - **Tin**: Price trended strongly. With improved risk appetite and supply - demand situation, it is recommended to buy on dips [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: Supply - demand is weak, and there is significant structural differentiation. Hold short positions in hot - rolled coil 2605, and the reference range for RB01 is 3030 - 3080 [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply - demand is weakening. Hold short positions in iron ore 2605, and the reference range for I01 is 760 - 795 [5]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply - demand is weakening. Hold short positions in coking coal 2605, and the reference range for JM01 is 1110 - 1150 [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans enter an oscillatory phase, and the domestic market is temporarily weak. The medium - term trend depends on tariff policies and production in the producing areas [7]. - **Corn**: As the supply in Northeast China is approaching, the futures price is expected to decline oscillatory. Hold short positions [7]. - **Oils and Fats**: Enter an oscillatory and slightly strong phase. Pay attention to future production and biodiesel policies [7]. - **Sugar**: International sugar price rebounds, and the domestic market will follow the international trend to decline. Short in the futures market and sell call options [7]. - **Cotton**: Temporarily wait and see, with a range - bound strategy of 13300 - 13600 yuan/ton [7]. - **Eggs**: The futures price is expected to be weak and oscillatory due to decreased supply pressure and weakening demand [7]. - **Pigs**: The supply is still abundant, and the futures price is expected to be weak and oscillatory [8]. - **Apples**: Wait and see due to low inventory and high - quality apple price increases [8]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Short - term oscillatory, and it is recommended to short at high levels or conduct spread trading in the long - term [8]. - **PVC**: Supply - demand is weak, and it is recommended to short or conduct spread trading [8]. - **PTA**: Take profits on long positions in PX, and short the processing margin of PTA in the long - term [8][9]. - **Glass**: Supply - demand is in a weak balance, and it is recommended to conduct spread trading [9]. - **PP**: Short - term oscillatory and weak, and it is recommended to short at high levels or conduct spread trading in the long - term [9]. - **MEG**: Supply - demand accumulates inventory, and it is recommended to short at high levels for the 01 contract [9]. - **Crude Oil**: Fundamentally bearish, but with high geopolitical uncertainty, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Short at high levels if Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels per day [9][10]. - **Styrene**: Short - term oscillatory, with the upside limited by the import window [10]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply - demand is balanced, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Urea**: The futures price is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to export news and supply - demand situation [10].

金融研究 2025年11月19日 星期三 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：11 月 18 日，A 股四大股指有所调整，其中上证指数下跌 0.81%，报收 3939.81 点；深成 指下跌 0.92%，报收 13080.49 点；创业板指下跌 1.16%，报收 3069.22 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.29%， 报收 1357.93 点。市场成交 19,460 亿元，较前日增加 156 亿元。行业板块方面，传媒(+1.6%)，计 算机(+0.93%)，电子(+0.12%)涨幅居前；煤炭(-3.17%)，电力设备(-2.97%)，钢铁(-2.85%)跌幅居前。 从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IM>IC，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,274/67/4,103。沪深两市，机构、主力、大 户、散户全天资金分别净流入-354、-270、154、471 亿元，分别变动-307、-149、+156、+300 亿 元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 96.3、71.22、13.19 与 5.42 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-13.47%、-10.37%、-3.01%与-1.88%，三年期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It also points out that each commodity has its own supply - demand characteristics and market influencing factors, and investors should make decisions based on these factors and market signals. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - Gold rebounded at night on Tuesday, with London gold back above $4000. The US employment data was weak, and domestic gold ETFs continued to flow in. It is recommended to buy at the lower support level [4]. - Silver's tight situation is gradually easing, and it is recommended to gradually reduce long positions [4]. Base Metals - Copper prices oscillated weakly. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and domestic weekly start - up data improved. It is advisable to wait for clearer macro signals [3]. - Aluminum prices may continue to decline in the short term. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased [3]. - Alumina prices are expected to be weak. Some alumina plants carried out early maintenance or reduced loads, and the supply - demand surplus pattern was difficult to change [5]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton. The supply decreased slightly, and the organic silicon industry planned to cut production by 30% [5]. - Lithium carbonate prices have support in the short term but face weak long - term expectations. The demand was strong in November - December, but the long - term demand was expected to decline [5]. - Polysilicon prices are affected by news. The supply decreased slightly, and the market was disturbed by news, so it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - Tin prices oscillated strongly. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the market was concerned about the continued low exports from Indonesia [5]. Black Industry - Rebar futures are undervalued, and hot - rolled coil futures are overvalued. The supply and demand of steel were weak, and the structural differentiation was significant. It is recommended to hold short positions in hot - rolled coil 2605 [7]. - Iron ore prices may decline. The supply and demand of iron ore were weak, and the futures were in a forward - discount structure [7]. - Coking coal prices may decline. The steel mills continued to lose money, and the coking coal futures were in a forward - premium structure [7]. Agricultural Products - Soybean meal: US soybeans are short - term strong, but the bullish factors have basically emerged. The domestic market may be weak in the short term, and the medium - term trend depends on tariff policies and production in the producing areas [8]. - Corn: As the supply of corn in Northeast China is approaching, the futures price is expected to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions [9]. - Oils: The overall trend of oils is expected to be oscillating and strong. Attention should be paid to future production and biodiesel policies [9]. - Sugar: It is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options. The international sugar market may decline in the long term, and the domestic market will follow [9]. - Cotton: It is recommended to wait and see. The international cotton harvest rate was lower than in previous years, and the domestic commercial inventory was higher [9]. - Eggs: The futures price is expected to be weak. The supply pressure decreased, but the demand was weak [9]. - Pigs: The futures price is expected to be weak. The supply was abundant, and the demand increased seasonally [9]. - Apples: It is recommended to wait and see. The high - quality apple production decreased, and the inventory decreased [10]. Energy Chemicals - LLDPE: In the short term, it will oscillate, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices. The supply pressure increased, and the demand declined [10]. - PVC: It is recommended to short or conduct a reverse spread. The supply increased, and the demand was weak [10]. - PTA: It is recommended to short the processing margin in the far - month contracts. The supply pressure was large in the long term [10]. - Rubber: It is recommended to operate in a band - trading manner. The raw material prices were strong, and the inventory increased [10][11]. - Glass: It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread. The supply and demand were weak, and the inventory was high [11]. - PP: In the short term, it will oscillate weakly, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices. The supply pressure increased, and the demand was weak [11]. - MEG: It is recommended to short at high prices. The supply pressure was large in the long term, and the demand entered the off - season [11]. - Crude oil: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply was affected by sanctions and geopolitical risks, and the demand was in the off - season [11][12]. - Styrene: In the short term, it will oscillate. The supply and demand improved marginally, but the overall contradiction was still large [12]. - Soda ash: It is recommended to wait and see. The supply and demand were balanced [12]. - Urea: The price is expected to oscillate. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was in the off - season, but the export news had a certain impact [12].

金融研究 2025年11月18日 星期二 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：11 月 17 日，A 股四大股指有所调整，其中上证指数下跌 0.46%，报收 3972.03 点；深成 指下跌 0.11%，报收 13202 点；创业板指下跌 0.2%，报收 3105.2 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.53%， 报收 1354.04 点。市场成交 19,303 亿元，较前日减少 501 亿元。行业板块方面，计算机(+1.67%)， 国防军工(+1.59%)，煤炭(+1.32%)涨幅居前；医药生物(-1.73%)，银行(-1.31%)，非银金融(-1.11%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,582/138/2,724。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-47、-121、-3、171 亿元，分别变动+332、+120、-133、-318 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 128.68、91.95、16.65 与 2.87 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-17.1%、-12.71%、-3.62%与-0.95%，三年期历 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading strategies for each commodity, considering factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and geopolitical risks. Summary by Commodity Category Base Metals - **Copper**: Market showed weak oscillations. Supply tightness persisted, with high scrap premium. Recommended waiting for clearer direction before trading [1]. - **Aluminum**: Prices declined slightly. Supply increased, while demand rose marginally. Short - term trend was expected to be oscillatory [1]. - **Alumina**: Prices dropped slightly. Some producers cut production, while demand remained high. Short - term prices were expected to be weak [1]. - **Lead**: Prices decreased. Supply was constrained by raw materials, and demand was affected by high prices. Recommended waiting and watching [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices rose. Supply decreased, and demand was supported. Organic silicon planned to cut production. Recommended waiting and watching [1][2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices increased. Demand was strong in the short - term, but weak in the long - term. Recommended low - level long positions with caution [2]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices declined. Supply decreased, and demand was weak. Recommended waiting and watching [2]. - **Tin**: Market showed weak oscillations. Supply was tight, and demand was stable. Recommended waiting and watching [2]. Black Industries - **Rebar**: Prices increased. Inventory decreased, and supply and demand were weak. Recommended holding short positions in hot - rolled coil 2605 [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices increased. Supply increased, and demand was weak. Recommended short - selling iron ore 2605 [4]. - **Coking Coal**: Prices decreased. Supply and demand were weak. Recommended short - selling coking coal 2605 [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean prices were strong. Global supply was tightening, and demand was good. Domestic market was relatively strong [5]. - **Corn**: Futures prices oscillated. Supply was delayed, and short - term demand was strong. Long - term prices were expected to decline [5]. - **Oils and Fats**: Malaysian palm oil prices increased. Supply was high in the short - term and expected to decrease later. Recommended anti - spread trading [6]. - **Sugar**: Prices decreased. International supply was tight, and domestic supply was expected to increase. Recommended short - selling futures and options [6]. - **Cotton**: Prices oscillated. US production increased, and domestic demand was weak. Recommended waiting and watching [6]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices oscillated. Supply decreased, and demand was weak. Recommended waiting and watching [6]. - **Hogs**: Futures prices were weak. Supply was abundant, and demand was expected to increase seasonally. Prices were expected to be strong in the short - term [6]. - **Apples**: Prices were stable. Supply was affected by bad weather, and inventory was low. Recommended waiting and watching [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Prices oscillated slightly. Supply pressure eased, and demand weakened. Short - term oscillations were expected, and long - term short positions were recommended [7]. - **PVC**: Prices were flat. Supply increased, and demand was weak. Recommended anti - spread trading [7]. - **PTA**: PX prices were high, and PTA supply pressure was large. Recommended taking profits on PX long positions and short - selling PTA processing fees [7]. - **Rubber**: Prices increased slightly. Supply was expected to increase, and inventory was accumulating. Recommended an oscillatory trading strategy [7]. - **Glass**: Prices decreased. Supply was stable, and demand was weak. Recommended anti - spread trading [8]. - **PP**: Prices oscillated slightly. Supply increased, and demand was weak. Short - term oscillations were expected, and long - term short positions were recommended [8]. - **MEG**: Prices oscillated. Supply pressure was large, and demand was in the off - season. Recommended short - selling above a certain level [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices oscillated. Supply and demand were bearish, but geopolitical risks were high. Short - term oscillations were expected, and short positions were recommended if supply reduction was less than expected [8]. - **Styrene**: Prices oscillated. Supply and demand were improving in the short - term but weak in the long - term. Recommended short - term oscillations with limited upside [9]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices increased slightly. Supply was stable, and demand was balanced. Recommended waiting and watching [9]. - **Urea**: Prices increased. Supply was sufficient, and demand was in the off - season. Short - term oscillations were expected [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report Market Logic - Overseas: The US government ended over 40 days of shutdown this week, but the release of key economic data is still delayed. September non - farm payrolls and Q3 GDP data are expected to be announced in the next two weeks. October employment and inflation data may be distorted, hindering the Fed's policy guidance. The market believes there is a higher probability that the Fed will not cut interest rates in December. The end of the shutdown could theoretically boost market risk appetite as fiscal policy can continue to play a role. The TGA account has increased by thousands of billions during the shutdown, exceeding one trillion dollars, and its release is expected to boost the US economy [6]. - Domestic: In October, the year - on - year growth rates of M1 and M2 both declined. M1 growth dropped from 7.2% to 6.2%, and M2 growth slightly fell to 8.2%. The gap between them widened again, indicating a decrease in capital activation. New social financing was 815 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.5% (previous value 8.7%). Government bond net financing was 489.3 billion yuan, a significant year - on - year decrease. Credit contraction, especially the weakness of long - term household loans, was the main drag, related to real estate spending. M1 growth decline was affected by weak overall social financing, slower corporate capital activation, and the transfer of household deposits to non - bank institutions. M2 growth was pressured by the slowdown of fiscal expenditure and government bond issuance. The current low - interest - rate environment may promote the conversion of deposit structure to demand deposits, supporting M1, while the future trend of M2 still depends on credit issuance rhythm and the implementation of loose policies such as policy - based financial tools [7]. - In October, the industrial added - value growth rate slowed from 6.5% to 4.9%, and the service production index dropped to 4.6%, the lowest point of the year, indicating weakened production momentum. This decline was dragged down by both external and internal demand. Externally, export growth slowed; internally, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, lower than market expectations, and weak investment and consumption were mutually confirmed, highlighting insufficient effective demand. Industry performance was significantly differentiated. Traditional industries were affected by the "anti - involution" policy, with significantly reduced operating rates, while high - tech manufacturing industries such as railway and ship transportation equipment and integrated circuits maintained high - speed growth [8]. - From a meso - perspective, this week's high - frequency economic activity index was active, at a high level in recent years. In building materials, the demand for PVC and glass improved. The operating rate of copper rods rebounded from a low level. The operating rate of photovoltaic glass has been declining rapidly since the "anti - involution" policy was proposed, but it gradually stabilized in late October, stopping the previous rapid decline [8]. - Under the influence of multiple factors such as the Fed's hawkish signals, global stock markets fluctuated significantly this week, driving the adjustment of multiple assets such as precious metals and digital currencies. As long as global fiscal and monetary policies remain loose, the technology theme still has investment value, and cyclical investments in resource - based sectors such as non - ferrous metals and chemicals are also timely. Precious metals should be used as a hedging tool to prevent tail risks [8]. Logic of Major Asset Classes | Major Asset Class | Logic | Allocation Suggestion | | --- | --- | --- | | Stocks | Medium - to - long - term logic: Global fiscal and monetary policies work together; domestic PPI and industrial enterprise profits have bottomed out, and "anti - involution" promotes recovery; capital flows, with deposit and wealth - management funds transferring, and foreign capital waiting to enter due to RMB appreciation; stable global demand and improved Sino - US relations lay the foundation for increased risk appetite. Short - term logic: Changes in Sino - Dutch and Sino - Japanese relations affect market risk appetite; valuations have reached extremely high levels in the past three years, and further increases require improved profit expectations; the probability of a Fed rate cut in December has decreased. | Long - term overweight, neutral allocation in November, with structural opportunities [9] | | Bonds | Medium - to - long - term logic: Limited room for domestic interest - rate cuts; the "unified large market" (including "anti - involution") promotes inflation and economic improvement; the stock - bond seesaw effect. Short - term logic: Bond yields have risen significantly compared to mid - year; the central bank has restarted treasury bond trading; the economic momentum in Q4 lacks explosive power. | Long - term underweight, neutral allocation in November [9] | | Commodities | Medium - to - long - term logic: Fiscal and monetary policies boost the economy, and PPI will turn positive next year; the Fed cuts interest rates, and the US dollar weakens; short - duration attributes with lower elasticity than stocks. Short - term logic: Weak demand; weak policy expectations in Q4. | Long - term overweight precious metals and non - ferrous metals. Precious metals will fluctuate from November to December, non - ferrous metals will be relatively strong, and there are trading opportunities in "anti - involution" related varieties [9] | Sector Logic - Precious metals: Still worth long - term allocation from a major asset allocation perspective to hedge against currency credit risks. Silver generally follows gold with more elastic upward pulses. This week, silver rose significantly, and precious metals as a whole soared and then回调ed significantly on Friday night, mainly due to the impact of global risk - asset fluctuations on liquidity. Long - term allocation can continue despite the lack of short - term drivers [14]. - Base metals: Metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, and tin face supply disruptions, with a tight medium - to - long - term supply situation, and there are more technology - related narratives (AI, robots, etc.) on the demand side, so they are still regarded as bullish. Basic metals are breaking through and rising. New - energy metals such as lithium carbonate have rebounded significantly recently due to the "anti - involution" policy, and polysilicon and industrial silicon are also subject to supply - side regulation, and their subsequent market trends are expected to continue [15]. - Black commodities: The current situation is influenced by the "anti - involution" policy and the arrival of the peak season, remaining relatively warm. The NDRC requires coal supply guarantee, changing the logic of production cuts due to safety inspections, so coal prices are weak, but it can still be bought on dips based on the peak - season and "anti - involution" logic [15]. - Energy and chemicals: Pay attention to the impact of raw materials on the overall valuation of the sector. Recently, crude oil prices have strengthened due to the situation in Venezuela. Without the expansion of the conflict, there is no condition for continuous upward movement, but also no continuous downward momentum under the background that OPEC+ is about to stop increasing supply, so it is expected to fluctuate with short - term strength. For downstream chemical products, after the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of long - term profit expansion, but no short - term drivers [15]. - Agricultural products: In the oil sector, the differentiation continues, with P showing a reverse spread and rapeseed - soybean showing a positive spread, with a medium - term oscillatory trend and both supply and demand increasing. Protein meal is oscillating strongly in the short term with relatively low valuation, and its medium - term trend depends on South American production, with a weak expectation. Corn is under pressure from autumn harvest and oscillating weakly. The supply - demand pressure of live pigs has eased, and the futures price is expected to oscillate within a range; the demand for eggs has declined, and the futures price is expected to oscillate downward. In the short term, the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere has become a reality for sugar, and it is still searching for a bottom; in the long - term, the global sugar market is in an increasing - production cycle and is regarded as bearish. For cotton, the latest USDA data in October has a negative impact on global cotton prices, and domestic commercial cotton inventories are higher than last year, so it is oscillating weakly in the short term; in the long - term, domestic cotton prices are at a relatively low level with no effective drivers, and macro - level disturbances should be monitored [16]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Core Views - Overseas and domestic economic situations, production and demand conditions, and major asset and sector investment logics are comprehensively analyzed, and corresponding investment suggestions are provided [6][7][8][9][14][15][16]. 02 Quantitative Analysis - The weights of major asset sub - sectors in the current and previous periods are presented. The recent one - week, one - month, year - to - date, and three - month returns, valuations, volatilities, trend smoothness, and speculation degrees of stocks, bonds, and commodities are also given. It is also mentioned that the correlation between major asset classes has increased recently, while the correlation within the commodity sector has decreased [19][20][21][22]. 03 Macro Overview - Domestically, in October, the unemployment rate of non - local household registration decreased significantly, the manufacturing PMI declined significantly, the M1 growth rate decreased, and the gap between M1 and M2 widened again. Both CPI and PPI rebounded. Overseas, the US PMI in October increased moderately [26][30][32][33][35]. 04 Meso Data - Based on the comparison of meso - level data of each module with the same period in the past five years, scores are given according to the degree of change. Economic activity indicators have returned to normal levels. In the real - estate sector, multiple indicators are at the bottom, while the demand for glass and PVC has increased [41][42][45].

金融研究 2025年11月17日 星期一 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：11 月 14 日，A 股四大股指有所调整，其中上证指数下跌 0.97%，报收 3990.49 点；深成 指下跌 1.93%，报收 13216.03 点；创业板指下跌 2.82%，报收 3111.51 点；科创 50 指数下跌 2.72%， 报收 1361.23 点。市场成交 19,804 亿元，较前日减少 853 亿元。行业板块方面，综合(+1.58%)，房 地产(+0.39%)，银行(+0.26%)涨幅居前；电子(-3.09%)，通信(-2.46%)，传媒(-2.16%)跌幅居前。从 市场强弱看，IH>IM>IF>IC，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,959/164/3,320。沪深两市，机构、主力、大户、 散户全天资金分别净流入-379、-241、131、489 亿元，分别变动-557、-188、+260、+484 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 130.76、98.06、27.74 与 8.03 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-16.76%、-13.03%、-5.76%与-2.54%，三年 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Various commodity futures markets show different trends and characteristics, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on market performance, fundamentals, etc. [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market price dropped on Friday, with London gold falling below $4,100/ounce. The US will release multiple economic data, and Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Domestic gold ETFs continue to flow in, and inventories in different places change. It is recommended to buy at the lower support level. [1] - **Silver**: There is a short - squeeze situation. It is recommended to gradually reduce long positions. [1] Base Metals - **Copper**: Price was weak on Friday. The market traded Fed officials' hawkish remarks, and the probability of a December interest rate cut is low. Supply is tight, and demand has improved. It is recommended to treat it with an oscillatory mindset. [2] - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract fell on Friday. Supply is increasing, and demand has slightly improved. Overseas supply disturbances have pushed up prices, but the short - term trend depends on the movement of main funds. [2] - **Alumina**: The price of the main contract fell on Friday. Supply is in surplus, and some factories are overhauling or reducing production. The price is expected to be oscillatory and weak in the short term. [3] - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract price fell on Friday. Supply has decreased, and demand is supported. The price is expected to oscillate between 8,600 - 9,400, and it is recommended to wait and see. [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract fell on Friday. Current demand is high, but the long - term demand is expected to decline. It is recommended to try long positions at low levels and be cautious about chasing high prices, or consider selling put options. [3] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main contract price fell on Friday. Supply has decreased, and demand is weakening. It is recommended to wait and see. [3] - **Tin**: Price oscillated weakly on Friday. The market traded Fed officials' hawkish remarks, and the supply of tin ore is tight. It is recommended to treat it with an oscillatory mindset. [4] Black Industry - **Rebar Steel**: The main contract price rose slightly. Steel supply and demand are weak, and there is a significant structural differentiation. It is recommended to wait and see and try to short the hot - rolled coil contract. [5] - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price rose slightly. Supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to decline marginally. It is recommended to wait and see and try to short the iron ore contract. [5] - **Coking Coal**: The main contract price fell slightly. Supply and demand are weak, and the futures valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see and try to short the coking coal contract. [5] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans fell on Friday. Supply is shrinking, and demand is growing rigidly. The US soybeans are expected to oscillate, and the domestic market is relatively strong in the short term. [6] - **Corn**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly, and some spot prices weakened. Supply is delayed due to weather, and there is a short - term supply - demand tightness, but the long - term price is expected to decline. It is recommended to sell hedging at high prices. [7] - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil prices showed different trends. The supply of Malaysian palm oil is high in the near term and is expected to decrease seasonally in the long term. It is recommended to use a reverse spread strategy. [7] - **Sugar**: ICE raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar showed different trends. The international market is affected by India's export policy, and the domestic market will follow the international trend. It is recommended to short in the futures market or sell call options. [7] - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and domestic cotton prices oscillated narrowly. International data adjustments are negative for cotton prices. It is recommended to wait and see. [7] - **Eggs**: Futures and spot prices fell. Supply pressure has decreased, and demand has weakened. The price is expected to oscillate weakly. [7] - **Pigs**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices fell. Supply is abundant, and demand is expected to increase seasonally. The price is expected to oscillate in a range. [7] - **Apples**: The main contract price rose last week. Due to extreme weather, the supply of high - quality apples is reduced, and the price is high. It is recommended to wait and see. [7] Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract price oscillated slightly on Friday. Supply pressure is increasing but at a slower pace, and demand is weakening. It is recommended to oscillate in the short term and short at high prices in the long term. [8] - **PVC**: The main contract price fell. Supply is increasing, and demand recovery is less than expected. It is recommended to short. [8] - **PTA**: PX and PTA prices have different trends. Supply pressure is high in the long term, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions in PX and short the processing fee in PTA. [8] - **Rubber**: The main contract price fell on Friday. Supply is expected to increase, and it is recommended to oscillate between 14,500 - 15,500. [9] - **Glass**: The main contract price fell. Supply has decreased, and demand is weak. It is recommended to use a reverse spread or short strategy. [9] - **PP**: The main contract price oscillated slightly on Friday. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to oscillate weakly in the short term and short at high prices in the long term. [9] - **MEG**: The spot price is given. Supply pressure is high in the long term, and it is recommended to short at high prices above the 01 contract. [9] - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices oscillated this week due to the game between fundamental negatives and geopolitical risks. It is recommended to oscillate in the short term and short at high prices if Russian oil production reduction is less than expected. [9][10] - **Styrene**: The main contract price rebounded slightly on Friday. Supply and demand are improving in the short term but are weak in the long term. It is recommended to oscillate in the short term. [10] - **Soda Ash**: The main contract price fell. Supply and demand are both increasing, and it is recommended to wait and see. [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, polyethylene will experience a slight decline in inventory, a slight increase in basis, and a closed import window. With the end of the agricultural film peak season, supply and demand will remain weak, and the market will mainly fluctuate. In the fourth quarter, supply and demand will gradually ease, and it is advisable to short at high prices or conduct reverse spreads on monthly differences [2]. - In the short term, polypropylene will see a slight accumulation of inventory, an open export window, and weak supply and demand. The market will mainly fluctuate weakly. In the fourth quarter, with the commissioning of new plants, supply and demand will gradually ease, and it is advisable to short at high prices or conduct reverse spreads on monthly differences [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Spot Prices, Futures-Spot Price Differences, and Inter-Period Price Differences - This week, the inventory of the polyethylene industry chain decreased slightly. The spot price of LDPE and the main contract fluctuated slightly, the basis strengthened, and the 1/5 spread narrowed slightly. The spot price of polypropylene and the main contract also fluctuated slightly, the basis strengthened, and the 1/5 price narrowed slightly [14]. (2) Polyolefin US Dollar Prices and Import Profits - This week, the US dollar price of LLDPE mainly declined slightly, the RMB exchange rate depreciated slightly, the domestic price fluctuated slightly, the low-price import window closed, and the export window closed. The CFR price in China remained stable, and the discount spread between China and Southeast Asia narrowed to $20. - The US dollar price of polypropylene mainly declined slightly, the RMB exchange rate depreciated slightly, the domestic spot price fluctuated slightly, the low-price import window opened, and the export window closed [22]. (3) Polyolefin Industrial Profits and Price Differences - This week, the upstream crude oil price fluctuated slightly, the petroleum price fluctuated slightly, the olefin monomer fluctuated slightly, and the polyolefin price mainly declined slightly. The decline in crude oil was less than that of olefins, and the olefin production profit narrowed slightly. The increase in coal was greater than that of olefins, and the olefin production profit also narrowed slightly. The decline in propylene was greater than that of PP powder, the powder profit recovered, and the price difference between PP drawstring and powder narrowed slightly. - The profit of PE downstream production slightly narrowed as raw material and finished product prices remained stable, and it was at a normal level. The profit of PP downstream BOPP film slightly rebounded as raw material prices remained stable, but it was still at a relatively low level [32][44]. (4) Polyolefin Substitute-Related Price Differences - This week, the price difference between LLDPE and HDPE narrowed slightly and was at a normal low level. The support of HDPE for LLDPE became stronger. The production ratio of standard products increased slightly, providing general support for linear products. - The price difference between LLDPE and LDPE narrowed slightly and was at a low level. In the short term, the support of LDPE for LLDPE remained strong. - The price difference between copolymer and homopolymer widened slightly and was at a normal level. The production ratio of drawstring products increased slightly, providing general support for drawstring products. - The price difference between HD and PP narrowed slightly and was at a normal level. - The price difference between North China LLDPE and East China PP drawstring was 290 yuan/ton. - The price difference between PE new materials and PE recycled materials was at a normal low level and narrowed slightly, enhancing the support for PE new materials. The price difference between PP new materials and PP recycled materials was at a normal low level and narrowed slightly, enhancing the support for PP new materials [57]. (5) Supply and Demand, and Industrial Chain Inventory - In the second half of the year, the supply and demand of polyethylene will weaken, and the pressure will increase in the fourth quarter. The supply pressure of polypropylene will increase in the second half of the year, and the supply and demand pressure will increase in the third and fourth quarters. High-cost plants need to be shut down to achieve rebalancing. - According to the existing maintenance plans, the planned maintenance of polyethylene in 2025 will increase compared to 2024, with more maintenance in the second and third quarters. The maintenance of polypropylene in 2025 will also increase compared to 2024, with more in the first half of the year and less in the second half. - This week, the inventory of polyethylene production enterprises slightly accumulated and was at a normal level compared to the same period in previous years. The port inventory slightly decreased and was at a normal level. The social inventory slightly accumulated and was at a normal high level. The coal chemical inventory slightly increased and was at a normal level. - The inventory of two major state-owned oil companies' polypropylene slightly accumulated and was at a normal high level compared to previous years. The port inventory slightly increased and was at a normal level. The social inventory slightly decreased and was at a normal high level. The coal chemical inventory slightly decreased and was at a normal level. - This week, the spot prices of plastics and polypropylene continued to fluctuate slightly. The peak season for agricultural films is gradually ending, with a decline in orders. Downstream enterprises replenished inventory at low prices. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is gradually ending, and downstream BOPP enterprises mainly replenished inventory at low prices [60][66][70] (6) Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - According to statistics from Zhuochuang Information, the average operating rate of powder this week was 41.82%, a month-on-month increase of 2.27% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.73%. - This week, the downstream operating rate of domestic polyethylene slightly decreased. The operating rate of agricultural films remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 3% year-on-year. The operating rate of packaging films remained flat month-on-month and year-on-year. The operating rate of monofilaments remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 1% year-on-year. The operating rate of films decreased by 1% month-on-month and increased by 4% year-on-year. The operating rate of blow molding remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 1% year-on-year. The operating rate of pipes remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 6% year-on-year. - This week, the operating rate of polypropylene downstream enterprises mainly decreased slightly. The operating rate of plastic weaving remained flat month-on-month and increased by 1% year-on-year. The operating rate of injection molding decreased by 1% month-on-month and 2% year-on-year. The operating rate of BOPP remained flat month-on-month and increased by 7% year-on-year [83][88][91]