1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy, and recommend buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [3]. - For bond futures, with the upward risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium - to - long term [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On August 13th, the four major A - share stock indexes all rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48% to 3683.46 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.76% to 11551.36 points, the ChiNext Index rose 3.62% to 2496.5 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.74% to 1077.7 points. Market turnover was 2.1752 trillion yuan, an increase of 270 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, communication (+4.91%), non - ferrous metals (+2.37%), and electronics (+2.01%) led the gains, while banks (-1.06%), coal (-0.81%), and food and beverages (-0.42%) led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IM>IC>IF>IH, and the number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 2730, 233, and 2456 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had net inflows of 7.6 billion, - 9.9 billion, - 12.3 billion, and 14.6 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +16.5 billion, +4.4 billion, - 11.1 billion, and - 9.8 billion yuan respectively [2]. - On August 13th, the yields of bond futures declined. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.398, a decrease of 2.13 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.564, a decrease of 1.33 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.662, a decrease of 0.75 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 2.038, a decrease of 0.76 bps [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 62.53, 56.3, 5.78, and - 5.82 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 7.9%, - 7.72%, - 1.24%, and 1.85% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 49%, 25%, 46%, and 70% respectively [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy, and it is recommended to buy long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [3]. 3.3 Bond Futures - **Cash Bond Situation**: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. For the 2 - year bond futures, the CTD bond is 250006.IB, with a yield change of - 0.75 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.01, and an IRR of 1.35%; for the 5 - year bond futures, the CTD bond is 240020.IB, with a yield change of - 1.35 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.006, and an IRR of 1.39%; for the 10 - year bond futures, the CTD bond is 250007.IB, with a yield change of - 0.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.008, and an IRR of 1.37%; for the 30 - year bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 1 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.008, and an IRR of 1.5% [4]. - **Funding Situation**: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 118.5 billion yuan and withdrew 138.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the upward risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium - to - long term [4]. 3.4 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent import and export and social activity sentiment have declined [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, China's credit data, and supply - demand relationships in different industries. Different trading strategies are recommended for various commodities based on their specific fundamentals[2][3][4][6][7][8][9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Market - Market Performance: Precious metals rebounded slightly on Wednesday, and market expectations for interest - rate cuts increased[2]. - Fundamentals: There are expectations of an early Fed rate cut, possible changes in the Fed chair appointment, geopolitical tensions, and changes in gold and silver inventories in different regions[2]. - Trading Strategy: Suggest going long on gold due to the unchanged de - dollarization logic; suggest temporarily observing silver due to inventory reduction and possible policy changes[2]. Basic Metals Aluminum - Market Performance: The electrolytic aluminum 2509 contract closed +0.27% higher at 20790 yuan/ton; the alumina 2509 contract closed - 2.36% lower at 3230 yuan/ton[3]. - Fundamentals: For electrolytic aluminum, supply capacity increased slightly while demand had no obvious improvement; for alumina, supply capacity was stable and demand came from high - load electrolytic aluminum production[3]. - Trading Strategy: For electrolytic aluminum, suggest observing as the price may fall after the positive sentiment fades; for alumina, suggest holding long positions and observing for non - participants[3]. Zinc - Market Performance: The zinc 2509 contract closed - 0.13% lower at 22,600 yuan/ton, and social inventory increased[3][4]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased significantly, processing fees rose, and consumption was in the off - season with开工 rates dropping[4]. - Trading Strategy: Suggest selling short at high prices[4]. Lead - Market Performance: The lead 2509 contract closed +0.09% higher at 16,930 yuan/ton, and social inventory decreased[4]. - Fundamentals: Supply had regional differentiation, and consumption was affected by high - temperature holidays in the battery industry[4]. - Trading Strategy: Suggest observing and waiting for inventory reduction or production cut signals[4]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main 11 contract closed at 8600 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton, with increased positions and slightly increased warehouse receipts[4]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased with new furnaces opened, and demand had marginal improvement in some areas[4]. - Trading Strategy: Suggest observing as the price is expected to fluctuate widely[4]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main LC2511 contract closed at 85,100 yuan/ton, up +3.1%[4]. - Fundamentals: Supply may face shortages in the future, and demand is in the peak season. Inventory increased recently[4]. - Trading Strategy: In the short - term, suggest observing; in the long - term, suggest going long at low prices if supply shortages persist[4]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main 11 contract closed at 8600 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton, with increased positions and slightly increased warehouse receipts[4]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased slightly, and demand was in a complex situation with mixed signals[4]. - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan, affected by policy news[4]. Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The rebar 2510 contract closed at 3216 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton[6]. - Fundamentals: Building material supply - demand was neutral, and plate demand was stable. There was a significant structural differentiation[6]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in rebar 2510, with a reference range of 3180 - 3240 yuan[6]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The iron ore 2601 contract closed at 796 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton[6]. - Fundamentals: Supply and demand were neutral - strong, and the market had expectations of a Fed rate cut and China's credit data[6]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in iron ore 2601, with a reference range of 770 - 810 yuan[6]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1236.5 yuan/ton, down 70.5 yuan/ton[6]. - Fundamentals: Supply - demand was relatively loose but improving, and the futures were over - valued[6]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in coking coal 2601, with a reference range of 1200 - 1270 yuan[6]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans continued to rise overnight[7]. - Fundamentals: Supply was loose in the near - term and tight in the long - term; demand had differences in the new US soybean crop[7]. - Trading Strategy: US soybeans are strong in the short - term, and the domestic market follows the international cost[7]. Corn - Market Performance: The corn 2509 contract rebounded, and the spot price fell[7]. - Fundamentals: Wheat substitution, import auctions, and new - crop cost pressure affected the price[7][8]. - Trading Strategy: The futures are expected to rebound after continuous decline[8]. Sugar - Market Performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5664 yuan/ton, up 0.32%[8]. - Fundamentals: Brazilian production increased, and domestic prices were under pressure[8]. - Trading Strategy: Go short in the futures market and sell call options[8]. Cotton - Market Performance: The US cotton futures price fell overnight, and the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose[8]. - Fundamentals: International cotton growth progress and domestic data adjustment affected the price[8]. - Trading Strategy: Buy at low prices and use a range - trading strategy between 14,000 - 14,300 yuan/ton[8]. Logs - Market Performance: The log 09 contract closed at 813 yuan/cubic meter, down 1.39%[8]. - Fundamentals: Spot prices rose, and the market had expectations for the future, with short - term focus on delivery[8]. - Trading Strategy: Observe[8]. Palm Oil - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil continued to rise[8]. - Fundamentals: Supply was in the seasonal growth period, and demand was relatively weak, with inventory accumulation[8]. - Trading Strategy: It is strong in the short - term and recommended for long - term allocation, focusing on production and biodiesel policies[8]. Eggs - Market Performance: The egg 2509 contract fell, and the spot price was stable[8]. - Fundamentals: Supply was sufficient, and demand had seasonal changes, with cost moving down[8]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly[8]. Pigs - Market Performance: The live - hog 2511 contract declined, and the spot price rose[9]. - Fundamentals: Consumption was weak seasonally, and supply would increase in the short - and medium - term[9]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust[9]. Energy Chemical LLDPE - Market Performance: The LLDPE main contract oscillated slightly, with a weak basis and general market trading[10]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased domestically and decreased in imports, and demand improved in the agricultural film sector[10]. - Trading Strategy: It may oscillate weakly in the short - term and is recommended to short far - month contracts when prices are high in the long - term[10]. PVC - Market Performance: The v09 contract closed at 5000, down 0.7%[10]. - Fundamentals: Supply was expected to increase, demand was average, and inventory accumulated[10]. - Trading Strategy: Observe as the price has limited downside[10]. Rubber - Market Performance: The rubber price rose slightly and then fell, with inventory decreasing[10]. - Fundamentals: Overseas raw material prices provided support[10]. - Trading Strategy: It may oscillate strongly in the short - term[10]. Glass - Market Performance: The fg09 contract closed at 1060, down 1.6%[10]. - Fundamentals: Supply may increase slightly, inventory accumulated, and demand recovered seasonally but was still weak[10]. - Trading Strategy: Observe as the price has limited downside[10]. PP - Market Performance: The PP main contract oscillated slightly, with a weak basis and general market trading[11]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased, and demand was differentiated among industries[11]. - Trading Strategy: It may oscillate weakly in the short - term and is recommended to short far - month contracts when prices are high in the long - term[11]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: Oil prices fell due to demand forecast cuts and inventory accumulation[11]. - Fundamentals: Supply pressure increased, and demand had mixed signals[11]. - Trading Strategy: Look for opportunities to short the SC main contract around 520 yuan/barrel[11]. Styrene - Market Performance: The EB main contract oscillated slightly, with a general market trading atmosphere[11]. - Fundamentals: Supply may increase in the future, and demand was affected by export prospects[11]. - Trading Strategy: It may oscillate weakly in the short - term and is recommended to short far - month contracts when prices are high in the long - term[11]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: The sa01 contract closed at 1390, down 0.8%[12]. - Fundamentals: Supply was operating normally with high inventory, and downstream demand was weak[12]. - Trading Strategy: Observe due to production - cut expectations[12].

Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy in the medium - to - long term, and recommend allocating long - term contracts of each variety on dips [1] - For bond futures, due to the upward risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts at high levels for the medium - to - long term [3] Summary by Directory (1) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On August 12, A - share four major stock indexes all rose, with Shanghai Composite Index up 0.5% to 3665.92, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.53% to 11351.63, ChiNext Index up 1.24% to 2409.4, and Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index up 1.91% to 1069.81. Market trading volume was 19,052 billion yuan, an increase of 553 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - In terms of industry sectors, communication (+2.24%), electronics (+1.88%), and coal (+1.01%) led the gains; national defense and military industry (-1.03%), steel (-0.83%), and building materials (-0.46%) led the losses [1] - From the perspective of market strength, IH>IF>IC>IM, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2,083/172/3,162 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail funds in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 89, - 143, - 12, and 244 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 207, - 97, + 160, and + 145 billion yuan respectively [1] - The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts was 80.01, 75.56, 12.63, and - 2.59 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 9.91%, - 10.15%, - 2.63%, and 0.79%, and three - year historical quantiles of 37%, 15%, 34%, and 54% respectively [1] (2) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On August 12, the yields of treasury bond futures rose across the board. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.418, up 1.07bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.571, up 0.6bps; the ten - year bond was 1.665, up 0.83bps; and the thirty - year bond was 2.044, up 1.7bps [2] - For the current active 2509 contract, the CTD bond of the two - year treasury bond futures was 250006.IB, with a yield change of + 0.25bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.027, and an IRR of 1.17%; the five - year was 240020.IB, with a yield change of + 0.85bps, a net basis of - 0.022, and an IRR of 1.66%; the ten - year was 250007.IB, with a yield change of + 1bps, a net basis of - 0.033, and an IRR of 1.79%; the thirty - year was 210005.IB, with a yield change of + 2.5bps, a net basis of - 0.127, and an IRR of 2.42% [2] (3) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent import/export and social activity sentiment has declined [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on gold; the long - term trend of industrial silver is downward, and it is advisable to consider short - selling silver on rallies [1][2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, prices are expected to remain volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see; for alumina, beware of callback risks; for zinc, short on rallies; for lead, wait and see; for lithium carbonate, wait and see due to high - volatility prices [2][3]. - For steel, try shorting the RB2510 contract; for iron ore, try shorting the I2601 contract; for coking coal, try shorting the JM2601 contract [4][5]. - For soybeans, the short - term is bullish, and domestic soybeans follow the international cost; for corn, the futures price is expected to be volatile and weak; for sugar, short in the futures market and sell call options; for cotton, buy on dips; for logs, wait and see; for palm oil, it is short - term bullish and medium - term long - biased; for eggs, the price is expected to be volatile; for pigs, the price is expected to be volatile and weak [6][7]. - For LLDPE, short - term is volatile and weak, and go short on far - month contracts on rallies in the long - term; for PVC, wait and see; for PTA, short - term look for positive spread opportunities and go short on processing fees or far - month contracts in the long - term; for rubber, it is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term; for glass, wait and see; for PP, short - term is volatile and weak, and go short on far - month contracts on rallies in the long - term; for MEG, wait and see; for crude oil, look for short - selling opportunities near 520 yuan/barrel; for EB, short - term is volatile and weak, and go short on far - month contracts on rallies in the long - term; for soda ash, wait and see [8][9][10][11] 3. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Precious metals rebounded slightly on Tuesday, and the market's expectation of interest rate cuts further increased [1]. - **Fundamentals**: US July CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected; core CPI growth reached the highest since February; the probability of a September interest rate cut rose to 95%. Trump considered suing Fed Chairman Powell, and Bisset hinted at a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September. US July tariff revenue reached a record high of $28 billion, a 273% year - on - year increase. The ten - month budget deficit as of July was $1.63 trillion. Domestic gold ETFs had capital outflows. COMEX gold inventory increased by 1 ton to 1201 tons, and Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory remained at 36 tons. London's June gold inventory was 8774 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory remained at 1151 tons, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory decreased by 64 tons to 1304 tons last week. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 11 tons to 15752 tons, and London's June silver inventory increased by 421 tons to 23788 tons. India imported about 200 tons of silver in June. The world's largest silver ETF increased its holdings by 41 tons to 15099 tons [1]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go long on gold; consider short - selling silver on rallies [2]. Base Metals Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.24% to 20,685 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 15 yuan/ton. The LME price was $2607/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. Consumption showed no obvious improvement, and the weekly aluminum product开工 rate was stable [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see as prices are expected to remain volatile [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina contract increased by 3.67% to 3191 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 22 yuan/ton. On August 11, 30,000 tons were traded in Western Australia at a price of $365/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina was stable. Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Beware of callback risks as alumina is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the zinc contract increased by 0.18% to 22,630 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 55 yuan/ton, and overseas 0 - 3 month spread was in a 3.6 structure. The social inventory on August 11 was 11.92 million tons, an increase of 0.6 million tons from August 7 [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased significantly (August zinc ingot production was 621,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18,000 tons), and processing fees soared, pushing refinery profits to over 1,500 yuan/ton. The consumption off - season deepened, and the galvanizing/die - casting开工 rate dropped to 56.77%/48.24%. Typhoons and Vietnam's tariffs dragged down exports. The seven - region zinc ingot social inventory increased to 113,200 tons (a weekly increase of 5,900 tons), but the LME inventory dropped below 85,000 tons, providing support [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short on rallies [3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the lead 2509 contract increased by 0.18% to 16,915 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 25 yuan/ton, and overseas 0 - 3 month spread was 36 dollars/ton. The social inventory on August 11 was 70,000 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from August 7 [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply showed regional differentiation. Environmental protection in Anhui suppressed the regenerated lead开工 rate to 41.11% (a weekly decrease of 3.26%), while the primary lead开工 rate was 67.4% (a weekly increase of 3.5%). High - temperature holidays in battery production led to a sharp drop in the five - province开工 rate to 65.25% (a weekly decrease of 6.61%), and battery prices were under pressure. The social inventory decreased to 71,100 tons (a weekly decrease of 1,800 tons), but the inventory digestion in regenerated lead plants was slow, and high waste battery costs (10,100 - 10,250 yuan/ton) suppressed profits [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see, waiting for signals of inventory reduction or regenerated lead production cuts [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2511 closed at 82,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 1620 yuan or 2.0% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Last week's production recovered to a new high of 19,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.2%. If the mining end of Ruoxiaowo stops production, it will affect the monthly supply of 8,000 tons of lithium carbonate, and supply - demand shortage is expected from August to October. In terms of demand, the peak production season of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials emerged in August, and the bidding capacity of energy storage systems in July had a remarkable growth rate. Last week, inventory increased due to supply restoration, and the sample inventory was 142,400 tons (an increase of 692 tons). Yesterday, the number of warehouse receipts increased to 20,829 (an increase of 1440) [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see due to high - volatility prices in the short - term [3]. Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The main RB2510 contract of steel rebounded after rising initially, closing at 3253 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The steel inventory in the Gangyin caliber increased by 1.5% to 4.17 million tons week - on - week, and the inventory in Hangzhou increased by 81,000 tons to 687,000 tons. The overall steel supply - demand was balanced, with no significant total - volume contradiction but obvious structural differentiation. The steel futures had a high discount, and the valuation continued to improve [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Try shorting the RB2510 contract, with a reference range of 3220 - 3280 yuan/ton [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main I2601 contract of iron ore fluctuated sideways, closing at 795 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The shipment of Australia and Brazil in the Ganglian caliber decreased by 20,000 tons to 25.3 million tons week - on - week, and the arrival decreased by 510,000 tons to 25.72 million tons. The iron ore inventory increased by 1.33 million tons to 1.44 billion tons. The iron ore supply - demand remained moderately strong. The iron - making water production decreased slightly week - on - week but increased by 86,000 tons year - on - year. The fifth round of coke price increase was implemented, and the sixth round was proposed. The steel mill profits narrowed marginally, and future production would be stable. The supply was in line with seasonal rules, with a slight year - on - year decrease. The iron ore supply - demand was moderately strong, and inventory accumulation was expected to be slower than the seasonal rule [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Try shorting the I2601 contract, with a reference range of 770 - 810 yuan/ton [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main JM2601 contract of coking coal rebounded after rising initially, closing at 1307 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The iron - making water production decreased by 4,000 tons week - on - week but increased by 86,000 tons year - on - year. The steel mill profits narrowed marginally, and future production would be stable. The fifth round of coke price increase was implemented, and there was no plan for the next increase. The inventory at each link was differentiated. The coking coal inventory and inventory days of steel mills and coking plants were at a relatively low level in the same period of history, while the inventory at mine mouths, ports, etc. continued to be at a record high. The production and mine - mouth inventory decreased month - on - month. The overall supply - demand was still relatively loose, but the fundamentals were improving. The futures were at a premium to the spot, and the forward premium structure remained. The futures valuation was high [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Try shorting the JM2601 contract, with a reference range of 1260 - 1330 yuan/ton [5]. Agricultural Products Soybeans - **Market Performance**: The overnight CBOT soybeans rose due to a positive USDA report [6]. - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply, it was loose in the near - term, while the production and inventory of new US soybean crops were revised down in the long - term. In terms of demand, South America was dominant in the short - term, but there were still differences in the export demand of new US soybean crops [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: The short - term US soybeans are bullish, digesting the positive report; domestic soybeans follow the international cost [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The corn 2509 contract rebounded, while the spot price of corn fell [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Wheat had a high cost - performance ratio and replaced the feed demand for corn. The weak wheat price suppressed the corn price. The auction of imported grains increased market supply, and the low transaction rate reflected weak market sentiment. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm was not high. The easing of trade situation increased import expectations, and the approaching listing of early - spring corn and the significant decrease in the cost of new - crop corn suppressed the long - term price expectation. The spot price of corn was expected to be weak [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: The futures price is expected to be volatile and weak [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5640 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.91%. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract was 300 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar after processing with additional tariffs was 436 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The double - week data of Brazil in July showed an increase in production, and the cumulative sugar - making ratio continued to reach a new high of 51.58%, with a double - week sugar - making ratio as high as 53.68%. The increasing production pressure in Brazil was gradually realized, and the raw sugar fluctuated at a low level. The domestic macro - sentiment cooled down, and the coastal sales area quotes dropped significantly this week, breaking below 6000 yuan/ton, indicating that the concentrated release of processed sugar was pressuring the spot. The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract is expected to be weak and volatile in the future, and the 01 contract will be below 6700 yuan/ton in the long - term [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The overnight US cotton futures rose, while the international crude oil price fluctuated weakly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, the August USDA data revised down the US cotton production and ending inventory, supporting the cotton price to stop falling and rebound. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to rise, and the August BCO data adjustment was positive for the cotton price. As of the end of July, the in - stock industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 898,400 tons, a decrease of 4600 tons from the previous month [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Buy on dips, with a trading strategy of range - bound trading between 13,800 - 14,300 yuan/ton [6]. Logs - **Market Performance**: The log 09 contract closed at 824.5 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 0.96%. As of August 8, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, an increase of 10 yuan/cubic meter from the previous week; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week; the spot price of 11.8 - meter spruce logs in Shandong was 1150 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week; the spot price of 11.8 - meter spruce logs in Jiangsu was 1160 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of logs rose, and the market had expectations for the future log market. In July, it entered the delivery market, and there were varying degrees of length increases in deliveries in different regions. The valuation below 800 yuan/cubic meter was low. With the cooling of macro - sentiment, in the short - term, it would be mainly based on the delivery logic, fluctuating around 800 yuan/cubic meter [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see [7]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, Malaysian palm oil rose, continuing to digest the positive report [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply, the MPOB estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production in July increased by 7% month - on - month, in the seasonal production - increasing cycle. In terms of demand, the export in the production area decreased month - on - month, and the MPOB showed that Malaysia's palm oil export in July increased by 4% month - on - month. There was a short - term supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and inventory continued to accumulate but was lower than market expectations [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is short - term bullish and medium - term long - biased, trading on the expectation of tight annual supply of oils [7]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The egg 2509 contract rebounded, and the spot price was stable [7]. - **Fundamentals**: High temperatures led to a seasonal decline in the egg - laying rate of hens, and downstream food factories were gradually stocking up, with demand possibly increasing seasonally. There were more newly - hatched laying hens, and

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On August 11th, the four major A-share stock indices all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.34% to 3647.55 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.46% to 11291.43 points, the ChiNext Index up 1.96% to 2379.82 points, and the STAR 50 Index up 0.59% to 1049.73 points. Market turnover was 1.8499 trillion yuan, an increase of 113.6 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, power equipment (+2.04%), communication (+1.95%), and computer (+1.94%) led the gains, while banks (-1.01%), petroleum and petrochemicals (-0.41%), and coal (-0.35%) led the losses [2]. - In terms of market strength, IM > IC > IF > IH. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 4,185, 166, and 1,066 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of 11.9 billion, -4.6 billion, -17.2 billion, and 9.9 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +24.8 billion, +17.4 billion, -19.1 billion, and -23.1 billion yuan respectively [2]. 2. Stock Index Futures - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 92.74, 92.96, 17.71, and 0.5 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of -11.13%, -12.12%, -3.58%, and -0.15% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 30%, 10%, 25%, and 43% respectively [3]. - The trading strategy is to maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy. Currently, using stock index futures as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips [3]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures - On August 11th, the yields of treasury bond futures all rose. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.4, up 1.06 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.566, up 2.42 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.653, up 2.18 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 2.022, up 3.49 bps [3]. - For the current active contracts, the CTD bonds and their corresponding net basis and IRR are as follows: for the 2 - year treasury bond futures (2509 contract), the CTD bond is 250006.IB, with a yield change of +1 bps, a net basis of 0.005, and an IRR of 1.39%; for the 5 - year, the CTD bond is 240020.IB, yield change +3.25 bps, net basis - 0.007, IRR 1.51%; for the 10 - year, the CTD bond is 250007.IB, yield change +2.75 bps, net basis - 0.044, IRR 1.88%; for the 30 - year, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, yield change +3.6 bps, net basis - 0.086, IRR 2.08% [4]. - In terms of the money supply, the central bank injected 112 billion yuan and withdrew 544.8 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 432.8 billion yuan [4]. - The trading strategy is that due to the rising risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium - to - long term [4]. 4. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent import - export and social activity sentiment has declined [10].

黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周一贵金属走弱，特朗普明确对黄金不征收关税，COMEX 黄金大幅走弱，拖累伦敦金下行。 基本面：特朗普在社交媒体上称黄金不会被征收关税；贝森特称"绝大部分"美国贸易谈判将在 10 月前完成； 特朗普政府扩大美联储主席候选人范围，鲍曼、Jefferson、Logan 入选。国内黄金 ETF 资金流出，COMEX 黄金库存 1200 吨，减少 2 吨；上期所黄金库存 36 吨，维持不变；伦敦 6 月黄金库存 8774 吨；上期所白银 库存 1151 吨，减少 7 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存 1368 吨，基本维持不变，COMEX 白银库存 15753 吨， 增加 11 吨；伦敦 6 月白银库存增加 421 吨至 23788 吨；印度 6 月白银进口约 200 吨左右。全球最大白银 etf--iShares 持有量为 15058 吨，增加 68 吨。 交易策略：去美元化逻辑未变，建议黄金做多；工业用银长期趋势向下，建议考虑逢高沽空白银。 风险提示：贸易战反复，美国经济下行超预期 2025年08月12日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | - ...

Report Information - Report Title: "Weak Dollar Trend Leads to Metals Oscillating on the Strong Side —— Weekly Report on Base Metals Copper and Tin of China Merchants Futures on August 10, 2025" [1] - Report Date: August 10, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Ma Yun [2] Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the risk appetite in the domestic market remains high due to the upcoming September military parade and the October Politburo meeting, with optimistic market expectations. Overseas, the trend of a weak dollar continues to be traded. Precious metals and base metals were generally strong last week, but due to the simultaneous strengthening of the RMB and the domestic consumption off - season, the pattern of stronger overseas and weaker domestic markets is obvious. It is recommended to buy copper on dips and approach tin with a range - bound trading idea [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review - **Price Performance**: In the week from August 4 - 8, metals oscillated on the strong side, with overseas markets stronger than domestic ones. In the Shanghai market, the order of metal performance is aluminum > zinc > lead > nickel > tin > copper. Over the past year, the London Copper Index rose 8.2%, the Shanghai Copper Index rose 6.2%; over the past month, the London Copper Index rose 1.1%, the Shanghai Copper Index rose 0.3%; over the past week, the London Copper Index rose 1.4%, the Shanghai Copper Index fell 0.1% [6]. - **Main Logic**: Last week, the market continued to trade on the expectation of a weaker dollar under the narrative of weak US non - farm payroll data and the replacement of the Fed Chairman with a dovish candidate. The RMB was relatively strong, so the performance of London metals was significantly stronger than that of domestic metals. Additionally, the obvious off - season for domestic demand and the accumulation of base metal inventories also dragged down domestic price performance [6]. 2. Next Week's Viewpoints - **Weekly Logic**: Domestically, with the approaching September military parade and October Politburo meeting, the short - term risk appetite remains high and market expectations are optimistic. Overseas, the trend of a weak dollar continues to be traded. Precious metals and base metals were generally strong last week. However, due to the simultaneous strengthening of the RMB and the domestic consumption off - season, the pattern of stronger overseas and weaker domestic markets is obvious. Microscopically, the tight situation of copper ore continues. Although China's copper production in July still had a high year - on - year growth, there are expectations of summer maintenance for many smelters in August. The low spot premium, flat structure, and inventory accumulation in the domestic market all indicate that demand is in the off - season, but the scrap - refined copper price difference of around 750 yuan also indicates that the valuation of refined copper is low. In the short term, the tin market has low capital attention, limited settled funds, and current supply - demand weakness. The market is concerned about the resumption of production rhythm in Wa State, and the fundamental contradictions are not prominent [8]. - **Recommended Strategies**: Buy copper on dips and approach tin with a range - bound trading idea [8]. - **Next Week's Focus**: China's monetary and credit data, US CPI, and retail sales data [9] 3. Industry Analysis - Copper - **Macro - environment**: CME interest rate futures expect four consecutive 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts. The domestic PPI is expected to be boosted at the bottom. Attention should be paid to China's monetary and credit data and US inflation and consumption data [12][22]. - **Supply**: In July, China's refined copper production increased by 14.2% year - on - year, and copper product imports increased by 9% year - on - year. In June, the scrap copper production decreased by 12% year - on - year [25][27]. - **Demand**: In July, the copper product operating rate was 71.6%, compared with 72.9% in the same period last year. Real estate sales are still weak year - on - year, while power grid investment and integrated circuit demand are on the rise [32][34]. - **Inventory**: The domestic copper inventory is 211,000 tons, with a weekly inventory increase of 10,600 tons [37]. - **Valuation**: The TC decreased by $38 weekly, indicating that the tight situation of copper ore continues. The spot import loss is 245 yuan, and the scrap - refined copper price difference is 784 yuan [40][42]. - **Position**: The net long position of LME funds continued to increase slightly, while the domestic position decreased [48]. 4. Industry Analysis - Tin - **Supply**: In June, the cumulative year - on - year import of tin ore decreased by 32%. The mining license approval in Wa State is completed, but the resumption of production is slow due to the rainy season. In July, the production of tin ingots and recycled tin increased by 0.1% and decreased by 30.7% year - on - year respectively, and the weekly operating rate of two provinces increased by 0.4% [52][56]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of solder is low, while the data of integrated circuits and semiconductors still show positive growth [58]. - **Inventory**: The global exchange inventory of tin is 11,945 tons, with a weekly inventory decrease of 330 tons [61]. - **Valuation**: The processing fee is at a low level. The spot import loss is 16,400 yuan, the premium is 650 yuan, and the London contango is $70 [64]. - **Position**: The net long position of LME decreased slightly, and the market attention is low [70].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, suggesting going long on gold; the long - term trend of industrial silver is downward, suggesting short - selling silver on rallies [1]. - For base metals, copper is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term; electrolytic aluminum is expected to be volatile and weaker, suggesting waiting and seeing; alumina is expected to have a wide - range shock in the short term, and long positions in far - month contracts can be considered; industrial silicon is expected to have a wide - range shock, suggesting waiting and seeing; lithium carbonate prices are expected to rise in the short term, and the subsequent price drivers need to focus on the resumption time; polysilicon is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan, and tin is expected to be in an interval shock [1][2][3]. - For the black industry, steel is expected to be in a balanced supply - demand situation with obvious structural differentiation, and the market is expected to be in a shock; iron ore is expected to have a slightly stronger supply - demand situation, and the market is expected to be in a shock; coking coal has a relatively loose supply - demand situation, and short - selling the 2509 contract can be tried [5]. - For agricultural products, soybean meal is expected to follow the international cost - end in the medium term; corn futures prices are expected to be volatile and weaker; sugar futures can be short - sold, and call options can be sold; cotton can wait and see with a shock strategy; logs can wait and see; palm oil is expected to be in a shock in the short term and more long - allocated in the medium term; eggs are expected to be volatile and weaker; pork is expected to be in a shock adjustment [6][7][8]. - For energy and chemicals, LLDPE is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term; PVC can wait and see; PX can wait and see, and PTA can look for short - term positive spread opportunities and short - sell processing fees or short far - month contracts in the long - term; rubber is expected to be volatile and stronger in the short term; glass can wait and see; PP is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term; MEG can wait and see; crude oil can look for short - selling opportunities at around 520 yuan/barrel; styrene is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term; soda ash can wait and see [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On Friday, precious metals fluctuated. International gold prices rose 0.08% to $3398 per ounce, and international silver prices rose 0.09% to $38.325 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The White House may not increase taxes on 100 - ounce gold bars; a Fed official supports three interest rate cuts this year; the central bank increased gold holdings for 8 consecutive months; domestic gold ETF funds flowed back, and gold and silver inventories in different regions changed [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on gold; short - sell silver on rallies [1]. Base Metals - **Copper** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, copper prices fluctuated and were slightly stronger [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The US dollar index is expected to weaken; the supply of copper ore is still tight, and the scrap copper is in short supply; the global visible inventory increased by 27,000 tons, and the domestic consumption is in the off - season [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the 2509 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed at 20,685 yuan/ton, down 0.31% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The smelters maintain high - load production, and the operating capacity increases slightly; the consumption has no obvious improvement, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate is stable [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and weaker, suggesting waiting and seeing [2]. - **Alumina** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the 2509 contract of alumina closed at 3170 yuan/ton, down 2.19% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina is stable; electrolytic aluminum smelters maintain high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to have a wide - range shock in the short term, focusing on the support at 3100 yuan; long positions in far - month contracts can be considered [3]. - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the main 11 - contract closed at 8710 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton, with an increase in positions and a decrease in warehouse receipts [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The price followed the rise of coking coal last week; a "counter - involution" initiative boosted market sentiment; the spot price declined slightly; the supply increased, and the demand of different downstream industries changed [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to have a wide - range shock, suggesting waiting and seeing [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the main LC2511 contract closed at 76,960 yuan/ton, up 7.73% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: A mining area of CATL stopped production; the supply - side production capacity recovered, and the demand in August was in the peak season; the inventory increased due to supply recovery [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to rise to 85,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and the subsequent price drivers need to focus on the resumption time [3]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the main 11 - contract closed at 50,790 yuan/ton, up 680 yuan/ton, with an increase in positions and an increase in warehouse receipts [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased slightly, and the demand in August was in line with expectations; the photovoltaic installation demand in the third quarter was pessimistic; new brands were added for futures registration [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan [3]. - **Tin** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, tin prices fluctuated and were weaker [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the demand is weak; the inventory decreased by 330 tons [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be in an interval shock in the short term [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar** - **Market Performance**: The main 2510 contract of rebar closed at 3207 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of building materials is neutral, and the inventory pressure is small; the demand for plates is stable; the futures discount of rebar widened, and the market sentiment cooled [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the 2510 contract, with a reference range of 3160 - 3240 yuan [5]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Performance**: The main 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 793 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand is slightly stronger; the iron - water production decreased slightly, and the steel mill profit margin expanded; the supply is in line with the seasonal law, and the inventory accumulation may be slower than the seasonal law [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, with a reference range of 770 - 810 yuan [5]. - **Coking Coal** - **Market Performance**: The main 2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1213.5 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The iron - water production decreased, and the steel mill profit margin narrowed; the fifth round of coke price increase was implemented; the inventory in different links was differentiated, and the overall supply - demand is relatively loose [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and try to short - sell the 2509 contract, with a reference range of 1160 - 1230 yuan [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal** - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans fell last Friday [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is loose in the near - term and expected to be large in the long - term; the demand is dominated by South America, and the export demand of US soybeans is weak [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow the international cost - end in the medium term, and focus on the weather in production areas and tariff policies [6]. - **Corn** - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract of corn was weaker, and the spot price fell [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Wheat substitutes for corn in feed demand, and the import of grains increased; the new - crop corn cost decreased, and the spot price is expected to be weaker [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be volatile and weaker [6]. - **Sugar** - **Market Performance**: ICE raw sugar rose 0.43% last week, and Zhengzhou sugar fell 0.84% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The production in Brazil increased, and the domestic processing sugar put pressure on the spot price; Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak and volatile [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell in the futures market and sell call options [7]. - **Cotton** - **Market Performance**: US cotton futures rebounded last Friday, and international crude oil prices continued to fall [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton export contract reached 108.20% of the annual expected export volume; the domestic cotton futures rebounded, and the textile and clothing export decreased [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, with a shock strategy in the range of 13,600 - 14,000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Logs** - **Market Performance**: The 09 contract of logs closed at 830.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 1.10% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of logs rose, and the market has expectations for the future; it is mainly based on the delivery logic in the short term, fluctuating around 800 yuan/cubic meter [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [7]. - **Palm Oil** - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose slightly last Friday [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The production in Malaysia increased seasonally, and the export decreased; it is expected to accumulate inventory [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be in a shock in the short term and more long - allocated in the medium term, focusing on the production in production areas and biodiesel policies [7]. - **Eggs** - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract of eggs continued to rebound, and the spot price rose slightly over the weekend [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The egg - laying rate of hens decreased seasonally, and the demand of downstream food factories increased seasonally; the supply is sufficient, and the cost decreased [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be volatile and weaker [7]. - **Pork** - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract of pork was stronger, and the spot price rebounded over the weekend [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The consumption decreased seasonally, and the supply increased in August; the supply will continue to increase in the medium term [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be in a shock adjustment [8]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE** - **Market Performance**: The main contract of LLDPE continued to fluctuate slightly on Friday; the domestic and overseas market prices and the basis situation are as described [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic supply increased, and the import is expected to decrease; the demand for agricultural films increased, and other demands were stable [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term [9]. - **PVC** - **Market Performance**: The V09 contract closed at 4998, down 0.1% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak; the inventory accumulated [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price has limited room to fall, suggesting waiting and seeing [9]. - **PTA** - **Market Performance**: The PX price was 831 dollars/ton, and the PTA spot price was 4670 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of PX increased, and the supply of PTA decreased; the polyester load was stable, and the inventory pressure was relieved [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for PX; look for short - term positive spread opportunities for PTA and short - sell processing fees or short far - month contracts in the long - term [9]. - **Rubber** - **Market Performance**: The price of rubber fluctuated and was stronger last week, with the RU2601 contract up 2.57% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The raw material prices in Thailand were stable, and the downstream tire production and inventory situation changed [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and stronger in the short term [10]. - **Glass** - **Market Performance**: The FG09 contract closed at 1065, up 0.3% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The production and sales of glass decreased, and the inventory accumulated; the downstream demand was general [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price has limited room to fall, suggesting waiting and seeing [10]. - **PP** - **Market Performance**: The main contract of PP continued to fluctuate slightly on Friday; the domestic and overseas market prices and the basis situation are as described [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased, and the demand in different downstream industries was differentiated [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term [10]. - **MEG** - **Market Performance**: The spot price of MEG in East China was 4465 yuan/ton, and the basis was 75 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is at a high level, and the import is expected to be low; the polyester load is stable, and the inventory pressure is relieved [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [10]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Performance**: Oil prices fell continuously last week due to economic concerns and geopolitical factors [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand in the US is stable; the refining profit is at a high level [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities at around 520 yuan/barrel [10]. - **Styrene** - **Market Performance**: The main contract of styrene fluctuated slightly on Friday; the domestic and overseas market prices and the basis situation are as described [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene is expected to increase slightly; the downstream demand is under pressure, and the export demand is a focus [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term [11]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Performance**: The sa09 contract closed at 1242, down 0.4% [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of soda ash is in a weak balance, and the inventory is high; the downstream photovoltaic glass is expected to reduce production [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [11].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Analyze the lead - zinc market from a global macro perspective, exploring the relationship between macro factors and lead - zinc, and the impact of "anti - involution" and fiscal policies on lead - zinc prices [1][6] - There are signs of endogenous kinetic energy repair, including the possible start of an active inventory replenishment cycle and improvement in PMI [36][39] - The central price of lead - zinc is related to GDP growth and industrial added - value [42][44] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Macro and Lead - Zinc Relationship - In terms of macro - attributes, the order is gold > copper > aluminum > zinc > lead, and lead has a very weak macro - attribute [4] - Analyze the relationship between lead - zinc and coal, copper, and use coal to understand "anti - involution" and copper to understand global fiscal policies [6] 3.2 "Anti - Involution" and Lead - Zinc Price Performance - Historically, during "supply - side reforms", lead - zinc often rose together with stocks and commodities. It is necessary to analyze the intensity of the current "anti - involution" [9] - From 2010 to 2025, lead and zinc prices showed different percentage changes during different "anti - involution" periods. For example, from 2016 - 2017, lead rose 141.6% and zinc rose 212.9%, while since July 2025, lead decreased 3.1% and zinc increased 2.2% [11] 3.3 Reasons for "Anti - Involution" - "Involution" refers to a vicious competition where economic entities invest a lot of resources without overall revenue growth, and production factor prices deviate from value [15] - The purpose of "anti - involution" is to reverse the situation of "quantity increase and price decrease". In June 2025, CPI increased 0.1% year - on - year, PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year, and the PPI - CPI gap continued to widen [18] 3.4 Fiscal Policies and Lead - Zinc Market - Fiscal policies are crucial as high resident and enterprise leverage ratios make fiscal policies determine the economic performance differences among countries. For example, China's exports are related to fiscal policies [30] - China's fiscal policy is continuously strengthening, and the US is also implementing fiscal expansion. Global major countries are all conducting fiscal expansion [33][34] 3.5 Endogenous Kinetic Energy Repair - There are signs of an active inventory replenishment cycle (profit increase and inventory increase), and PPI and industrial enterprise profits have basically bottomed out [38] - From the perspective of the difference between enterprise and resident deposits, PMI is expected to improve after the third quarter [41] 3.6 Determinants of Lead - Zinc Central Price - The IMF has raised this year's GDP growth forecast to 3% and predicts a slight recovery of global economic growth in 2025, which is related to the central price of lead - zinc [42] - Industrial added - value provides a more accurate perspective for determining the central price of lead - zinc [44]

金融研究 2025年8月8日 星期五 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：8 月 7 日，A 股四大股指多数回调，其中上证指数上涨 0.16%，报收 3639.67 点；深成指 下跌 0.18%，报收 11157.94 点；创业板指下跌 0.68%，报收 2342.86 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.15%， 报收 1058.21 点。市场成交 18,525 亿元，较前日增加 932 亿元。行业板块方面，有色金属(+1.2%)， 美容护理(+0.99%)，房地产(+0.82%)涨幅居前；医药生物(-0.92%)，电力设备(-0.74%)，通信(-0.47%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IM>IC，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,117/216/3,084。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-94、-174、22、245 亿元，分别变动-105、-52、+105、+52 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 112.15、111.14、22.07 与 0.51 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-12.77%、-13.7%、-4.19%与-0.14%，三年期 ...