金融研究 2025年11月26日 星期三 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 | | 月 股四大股指全线反弹，其中上证指数上涨 市场表现：11 25 日，A 0.87%，报收 3870.02 | | | 点；深成 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指上涨 1.53%，报收 12777.31 点；创业板指上涨 1.77%，报收 2980.93 点；科创 50 指数上涨 | 0.43%， | | | | | 报收 1302.17 点。市场成交 18,262 亿元，较前日增加 858 亿元。行业板块方面，通信(+3.54%)，传 | | | | | | 媒(+2.85%)，有色金属(+2.42%)涨幅居前；国防军工(-0.32%)，交通运输(-0.11%)，石油石化(+0.01%) | | | | | | 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,297/160/991。沪深两市，机构、 | | | | | | 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 111、-23、-62、-26 亿元，分别变动+133、+85、+14、-232 | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides market analysis and trading strategies for various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and supply - demand situations of each commodity and gives corresponding trading suggestions based on these factors. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market price oscillated on Tuesday, with London gold blocked at $4150. Weak US economic data increased rate - cut expectations. Domestic gold ETFs continued to see inflows. Suggest buying at the lower support level [2]. - **Silver**: Supply tightness gradually eased. Suggest gradually reducing long positions [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Price rose and then fell. December rate - cut is likely, and the market discussed the possibility of a dovish official becoming the next Fed Chair. Consider an oscillating and slightly bullish approach [3]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract price rose by 0.40% to 21,465 yuan/ton. Supply increased slightly, and demand was stable. Expected to maintain oscillating adjustment [3]. - **Alumina**: The main contract price fell by 0.33% to 2,727 yuan/ton. Supply had narrow fluctuations, and demand was high. Expected to show an oscillating and slightly bearish trend before large - scale production cuts [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main 01 contract price rose by 0.22% to 8,960 yuan/ton. Supply might decline in November, and demand was supported. The price was expected to move between 8,600 - 9,400 yuan/ton. Suggest waiting and watching [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2605 contract price rose by 5.76% to 97,340 yuan/ton. Supply was high, and demand increased. Expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish in the short - term. Pay attention to inventory data [4]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main 01 contract price rose by 2.65% to 54,730 yuan/ton. Supply decreased slightly, and demand was weak. Near - month prices were anchored to the spot range. Suggest waiting and watching [4]. - **Tin**: Price was oscillating and slightly bullish. December rate - cut was likely. Supply was tight, and demand was on - demand. Consider an oscillating and slightly bullish approach [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2601 contract price rose to 3,097 yuan/ton. Inventory decreased, and supply - demand was weak. Suggest leaving the market and waiting. The reference range for RB01 is 3,060 - 3,110 yuan/ton [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2601 contract price rose to 795.5 yuan/ton. Supply - demand was weakening. Suggest leaving the market and waiting. The reference range for I01 is 780 - 800 yuan/ton [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2601 contract price fell to 1,067 yuan/ton. Supply - demand was weakening. Suggest leaving the market and waiting. The reference range for JM01 is 1,050 - 1,100 yuan/ton [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybean prices rose slightly. Supply was contracting in the near - term and expected to be large in the long - term. Demand for US soybean crushing was strong. US soybeans were expected to be oscillating, and the domestic market's medium - term trend depends on tariff policies and production [6]. - **Corn**: Futures prices were oscillating and slightly bullish. Supply was delayed due to weather, and demand was strong. However, new production was expected to increase. Suggest waiting and watching [6]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly. Supply pressure decreased, and short - term prices were slightly bullish but with limited sustainability. Expected to oscillate [7]. - **Vegetable Oils**: Palm oil prices fell. Supply was high, and demand was weak. Pay attention to production and bio - diesel policies [7]. - **Sugar**: The 01 contract price rose slightly. International prices might bottom - out in the long - term, and domestic pressure was high. Suggest shorting futures and selling call options [7]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices rebounded, and domestic prices rose. Suggest buying at low prices, with a strategy in the 13,500 - 13,800 yuan/ton range [7]. - **Pigs**: Futures prices were weaker in the near - term. Supply was abundant, and demand might increase seasonally. Expected to be oscillating and slightly bearish [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Price fell slightly. Supply pressure was rising but at a slower pace, and demand was weak. Expected to be oscillating and slightly bearish in the short - term and supply - demand to be loose in the long - term. Suggest shorting at high prices [8][9]. - **PTA**: PX supply was high, and PTA supply decreased in the short - term. PX was expected to be bullish in the long - term, and short - term PTA supply - demand improved. Suggest taking profits on long PX and short PTA processing - fee positions [9]. - **Rubber**: Price fell by 0.85%. Inventory increased. Expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [9]. - **PP**: Price fell slightly. Supply increased, and demand was stable. Expected to be oscillating and slightly bearish in the short - term and supply - demand to be loose in the long - term. Suggest shorting at high prices [9]. - **MEG**: Supply was high, and inventory increased. Suggest shorting at high prices for the 01 contract and taking partial profits [10]. - **Crude Oil**: Price fell sharply. Supply pressure was large, and demand was in the off - season. Suggest holding short positions [10]. - **Styrene**: Price oscillated slightly. Supply - demand improved in the short - term but might weaken later. Expected to oscillate, with upside limited by the import window [10].

金融期货早班车 金融研究 2025年11月25日 星期二 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 126.61、91.37、28.65 与 8.96 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-11.64%、-8.75%、-4.24%与-2%，三年期历史分位数分别为 31%、25%、22%及 30%。 交易策略：中长期，我们维持做多经济的判断，当下以股指做多头替代有一定超额，推荐逢低配置各 品种远期合约。 招商期货有限公司 风险提示：外生宏观冲击、财政扩张进度不及预期、其他系统性冲击。 市场表现：11 月 24 日，A 股四大股指全线反弹，其中上证指数上涨 0.05%，报收 3836.77 点；深成 指上涨 0.37%，报收 12585.08 点；创业板指上涨 0.31%，报收 2929.04 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.84%， 报收 1296.6 点。市场成交 17,404 亿元，较前日减少 2,432 亿元。行业板块方面，国防军工(+4.31%)， 传媒(+3.49%)，计算机(+2.41%)涨幅居前；石油石化(-1.21%)，煤炭(-1.09%)，银行(-0.79%)跌幅居 前。从市场强弱看，I ...

2025年11月25日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周一贵金属价格大涨，伦敦金上涨 1.72%至 4134 美元。 基本面：旧金山联储主席 Mary Daly 表示支持美联储在下月会议上降息，理由是她认为就业市场突然恶化的 可能性更大，且比通胀飙升更难管理；美联储理事沃勒明确表示主张 12 月降息，因其更担心劳动力市场而非 通胀；中美两国元首通电话，确认将坚持正确方向，拉长合作清单。国内黄金 ETF 持续流入，COMEX 黄金 库存 1137.4 吨，减少 5.9 吨；上期所黄金库存 90.4 吨，维持不变；伦敦 10 月黄金库存 8926 吨，增加 18 吨； 上期所白银库存 532 吨，增加 19 吨；金交所白银库存上周库存 715 吨，减少 8 吨，COMEX 白银库存 14328 吨，增加 0.2 吨；伦敦 10 月白银库存增加创纪录的 1673 吨至 26252 吨；印度 9 月白银进口约 1000 吨左右； 全球最大黄金 ETF-SPDR 持有量 1040.9 吨，增加 0.3 吨；白银 etf--iShares 持有量为 15257 吨，维持不变。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The platinum market is expected to face a supply deficit in 2025, with a shortage of 692,000 ounces. Despite a possible balance or slight surplus in 2026 under certain conditions, the supply - side structural tension and long - term demand potential from the hydrogen industry remain. The price is likely to break through $2000 in the medium - term [62]. - The palladium market is facing a double - pressure of supply surplus and structural demand decline. The supply surplus is expected to expand to 245,000 ounces in 2025, and the price will face downward pressure in the future [61][65]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Platinum and Palladium Overview - **Physical and Chemical Properties**: Platinum is a silver - white metal with high density, excellent high - temperature resistance, and good ductility. It is chemically stable and an excellent catalyst. Palladium is also a silver - white metal, lighter than platinum, with good high - temperature performance and unique hydrogen - absorption ability. It is also a highly efficient catalyst [8][9][10][11]. - **Industrial Chain**: The upstream of the platinum - palladium industrial chain is highly geographically concentrated, with South Africa and Russia dominating. The mid - stream involves refining and purification, and the downstream demand for platinum is diverse, while palladium is mainly used in the automotive sector. China has a low self - sufficiency rate and is taking measures to ensure supply chain security [12]. - **Futures Contracts**: China lacks platinum and palladium futures pricing power. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has released a draft for soliciting opinions on platinum and palladium futures contracts, with innovative delivery systems and specific contract parameters [14][15]. 3.2 Supply - **Global Supply Pattern**: In 2024, global platinum supply was 81% from mines and 19% from recycling, while palladium supply was 71.5% from mines and 28.5% from recycling. South Africa dominated platinum production, and Russia was the largest palladium producer. Four major mining giants dominated global platinum and palladium supply [18][20][25]. - **China's Supply Pattern**: China's platinum supply is highly dependent on imports, while palladium supply has stronger self - sufficiency due to a well - established recycling system. China's platinum and palladium imports are geographically concentrated, and the export scale is small. The domestic recycling industry has potential for growth [33][34][36]. 3.3 Demand - **Global Demand Structure**: Platinum demand is relatively diversified, with the automotive catalyst sector being the largest, followed by industrial applications. Palladium demand is highly concentrated in the automotive catalyst sector. Platinum demand is less volatile, while palladium demand is more affected by the automotive industry [39]. - **China's Demand Structure**: China's platinum demand focuses on green energy transformation, while palladium demand is also mainly in the automotive industry but faces more uncertainty due to the impact of new - energy vehicles [42]. - **Application Areas**: In the automotive industry, platinum, palladium, and rhodium play different roles in exhaust catalysts. In glass manufacturing, platinum - rhodium alloys and palladium alloys are used for their high - temperature stability and corrosion resistance. In the jewelry and investment fields, platinum investment demand is strong, and jewelry demand is recovering. In the hydrogen energy industry, platinum and palladium are core catalysts [47][50][51][56]. 3.4 Balance and Outlook - **Global Balance**: The platinum market is facing supply shortages, while the palladium market is facing supply surpluses and demand declines. The supply of platinum is affected by production challenges in South Africa and North America, while demand is supported by the automotive and hydrogen energy industries. The palladium supply surplus is due to reduced demand in the automotive sector and increased recycling [58][61]. - **Price and Outlook**: The platinum price is expected to rise in the medium - term, while the palladium price is under downward pressure. The future price trends of both metals are related to the automotive industry, recycling markets, and policy factors [62][65].

金融研究 2025年11月24日 星期一 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：11 月 21 日，A 股四大股指延续调整，其中上证指数下跌 2.45%，报收 3834.89 点；深成 指下跌 3.41%，报收 12538.07 点；创业板指下跌 4.02%，报收 2920.08 点；科创 50 指数下跌 3.19%， 报收 1285.83 点。市场成交 19,836 亿元，较前日增加 2,610 亿元。行业板块方面，传媒(-0.32%)， 家用电器(-0.4%)，食品饮料(-0.88%)涨幅居前；综合(-5.5%)，有色金属(-5.26%)，电力设备(-5.17%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 351/26/5,071。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-522、-464、195、791 亿元，分别变动-366、-254、+161、 股指期货 +459 亿元。 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 49.5、47.41、25.21 与 9.45 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-8.34%、-8.28%、-6.74%与-3.81%，三 ...

2025年11月24日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周五贵金属价格震荡，伦敦金冲高回落依旧未能站稳 4100 美元。 基本面：美联储"三把手"纽约联储行长威廉姆斯称"近期"仍存在降息空间，市场预期 12 月降息概率盘中 突破 70%美国劳工统计局取消 10 月 CPI 发布，11 月 CPI 12 月 18 日发，不含环比涨幅；美国 11 月标普全 球综合 PMI 初值为 54.8，四个月来最高，服务业 PMI 增长加快，制造业 PMI 增长放缓。欧元区 11 月服务业 PMI 初值 53.1 创一年半新高，但制造业 PMI 初值 49.7，意外重回荣枯线下方，德法制造业双双恶化；日本 批准 21.3 万亿日元经济刺激计划，为疫情以来最大规模。国内黄金 ETF 持续流入，COMEX 黄金库存 1148.7 吨，减少 0.1 吨；上期所黄金库存 90.4 吨，维持不变；伦敦 10 月黄金库存 8926 吨，增加 18 吨；上期所白 银库存 519 吨，减少 16 吨；金交所白银库存上周库存 774 吨，减少 47 吨，COMEX 白银库存 14327 吨，减 少增 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bull market continues, but it is still a structural one. Investing in stock index futures may be more advantageous than stocks. There are also opportunities in the commodity futures market due to the re - evaluation of physical resource values [50] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Index Review - **Driving Sectors of the Bull Market**: New energy, electronics, non - ferrous metals, and communication are the main drivers of the current bull market. Industries such as electronics, power equipment, and non - ferrous metals have made significant contributions to the index increase from April 10, 2025, to November 14, 2025 [6] - **Industry Performance Details**: Different industries show various performance indicators in terms of weekly, monthly, quarterly, semi - annual, and annual returns, as well as maximum drawdown, Sharpe ratio, and other metrics. For example, the comprehensive industry has high returns in multiple time - frames, while the beauty care industry has negative returns in the short - term [7] - **Index Valuation - Risk Premium Rate**: As of the latest trading day, the risk premium rates of SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are 6.5%, 5.2%, 1.2%, and 0.3% respectively. From a configuration perspective, large - cap indexes are more cost - effective than small - and medium - cap indexes [10] - **Index Valuation - 2026 Estimation**: Analysts' 2026 EPS estimates for SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are 10.6, 6.8, 1.8, and 1.1 respectively. For the ChiNext and STAR 50, the estimates are 7.6 and 4.7. The estimates show that analysts are pessimistic about the profit improvement of large - cap indexes, optimistic about CSI 500 and ChiNext (with a weakening trend recently), and neutral about CSI 1000 and STAR 50 [18] - **Fund Inflow**: Margin trading funds continue to flow into broad - based indexes, with different trends for different indexes. From the perspective of theme ETFs, large - cap, small - cap, and micro - cap indexes have continuous inflows, while medium - cap indexes have a slowdown in inflow [20] - **Industry Fund Inflow**: In terms of margin trading funds, the power equipment industry has continuous inflows, while the computer, non - bank finance, and automobile industries have short - term outflows. Most industries in theme ETFs maintain a net inflow trend, except for the military and food and beverage industries [24] - **Private Fund Filing**: The filing speed of private funds is still slow. In November, 112 private funds were liquidated and 54 were newly issued; in October, 292 were liquidated and 608 were newly issued [25] 3.2 Stock - Futures Linkage - **Understanding Stock - Futures Linkage**: Stock - futures linkage is affected by factors such as demand, supply, price, cost, profit, valuation, and macro - factors. There is a relationship between commodity futures and resource stocks [29] - **Linkage in Different Sectors**: - **Precious Metals**: From January 1, 2024, to November 20, 2025, gold futures rose 93% and gold stocks rose 117%; silver futures rose 99% and silver stocks rose 118%. The pricing is related to the overflow of macro - liquidity [35] - **Copper and Aluminum**: From January 1, 2024, to November 20, 2025, copper futures rose 25% and copper stocks rose 69%; aluminum futures rose 9% and aluminum stocks rose 83%. The pricing is related to AI - related power demand and power supply for electrolytic aluminum [38] - **New Energy**: From January 1, 2024, to November 20, 2025, lithium carbonate futures fell 7% and lithium mining stocks rose 59%. From December 26, 2024, to November 20, 2025, polysilicon futures rose 25% and polysilicon stocks rose 33%. The pricing is related to anti - involution policies and the bottom - up reversal of lithium carbonate [42] - **Coal and Real Estate**: From January 1, 2024, to November 20, 2025, coking coal futures fell 41% and coal stocks rose 10%; glass futures rose 45% and real estate stocks rose 12%. The pricing of coking coal is related to short - term supply surplus, while coal has stable dividends. Glass also has supply surplus, but real estate may have a reversal [46] - **Advanced Usage of Stock - Futures Linkage**: In fully cleared industries, the cost - to - price ratio can be estimated through the linkage between stock prices and futures prices, and then the elasticity between futures and stocks can be calculated. By comparing the estimated cost - to - price ratio with industrial reality, it can be determined which is more overvalued or undervalued between commodities and stocks [47] 3.3 Investment Recommendations - The bull market continues, but it is a structural one. It is recommended to consider stock index futures. There are also opportunities in the commodity futures market [50]

金融研究 2025年11月21日 星期五 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：11 月 20 日，A 股四大股指延续调整，其中上证指数下跌 0.4%，报收 3931.05 点；深成 指下跌 0.76%，报收 12980.82 点；创业板指下跌 1.12%，报收 3042.34 点；科创 50 指数下跌 1.24%， 报收 1328.19 点。市场成交 17,226 亿元，较前日减少 200 亿元。行业板块方面，建筑材料(+1.4%)， 综合(+0.87%)，银行(+0.86%)涨幅居前；美容护理(-2.39%)，煤炭(-2.1%)，电力设备(-1.96%)跌幅 居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IM>IC，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,452/150/3,846。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-156、-210、34、332 亿元，分别变动+23、-41、-24、+42 亿 元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 76.81、61.95、25.75 与 5.69 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-11.89%、-9.97%、-6.41%与-2.15%，三年期历史分 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers corresponding trading strategies for each sector [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold Market**: On Thursday, precious metals fluctuated, with London gold constrained below $4,100. The US September non - farm payrolls data was mixed, and Fed officials had different views on interest rate cuts. Domestic gold ETFs continued to see inflows. The recommended trading strategy is to buy at the lower support level [2]. - **Silver Market**: The tight supply situation is gradually easing. It is recommended to gradually reduce long positions [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated downward. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the market anticipates a tight supply - demand situation for electrolytic copper next year. With unclear macro - drivers, the recommended strategy is to wait and see [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased slightly. The smelters are operating at high loads, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [3]. - **Alumina**: The price of the alumina main contract decreased slightly. Some alumina plants are undergoing early maintenance or reducing production. The supply - demand surplus pattern is difficult to change, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [3][4]. - **Zinc**: The price of the Shanghai zinc contract decreased slightly. Supply is differentiated between domestic and overseas markets, and demand is weak. The recommended strategy is to short at high prices [4]. - **Lead**: The price of the Shanghai lead contract decreased slightly. The supply of lead concentrate is in short supply, and demand is affected by high prices. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main contract decreased significantly. Supply decreased, and demand is supported by the polysilicon industry. With the planned production cut, the price has strong support at the bottom. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions and be cautious about short - selling [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract decreased. Supply is expected to increase, and the inventory reduction speed has slowed down. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices during the callback [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of the main contract decreased. Supply decreased slightly, and downstream production decreased. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [5]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. The supply - demand situation of steel is weak, with significant structural differentiation. It is recommended to hold short positions in the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract, and the reference range for RB01 is 3040 - 3090 [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. The supply - demand situation is weakening marginally. It is recommended to hold short positions in the iron ore 2605 contract, and the reference range for I01 is 760 - 795 [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. The supply - demand situation is weakening, and the futures valuation is high. It is recommended to hold short positions in the coking coal 2605 contract, and the reference range for JM01 is 1100 - 1140 [6]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term CBOT soybean price is weak. The global supply - demand situation is gradually improving. The US soybean price is expected to fluctuate, and the domestic price may weaken in the short term [7]. - **Corn**: The corn futures price is running weakly. The short - term supply is tight, but the long - term price is expected to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions [7]. - **Edible Oils**: The Malaysian palm oil price decreased. The near - term supply is high, and the long - term supply is expected to decrease seasonally. The P contract is in a contango structure, and it is difficult to determine the unilateral price [7]. - **Sugar**: The price of the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract decreased slightly. Internationally, the Indian export quota affects the price, and the long - term global production is expected to increase. Domestically, the price is expected to follow the international trend. It is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [7]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton price fluctuates weakly, and the domestic cotton price fluctuates narrowly. It is recommended to wait and see, with a range - trading strategy between 13400 - 13600 yuan/ton [7]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures price rebounded, and the spot price decreased. The supply pressure decreased, and the demand weakened. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7][8]. - **Hogs**: The hog futures price is running weakly, and the spot price increased in most areas. The supply is still abundant, and the demand is expected to increase seasonally. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract fluctuated slightly. The supply pressure is rising but at a slower pace, and the demand has weakened. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or conduct a bear - spread [9]. - **PTA**: The PX supply is balanced and loose, and the PTA is in inventory accumulation. It is recommended to take profits on PX long positions and short the PTA processing margin in the far - month contracts [9]. - **PP**: The main contract decreased slightly. The supply pressure is rising, and the demand is weak. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or conduct a bear - spread [9]. - **MEG**: The supply may decrease in the short term but increase in the long term. The demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices above the 01 contract [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The oil price weakened. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it can be shorted at high prices if the Russian oil production cut is less than 500,000 barrels per day [10]. - **Styrene**: The main contract rebounded slightly. The short - term supply - demand situation has improved, but the long - term situation is still weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the upside limited by the import window [10].