Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On January 5th, A-share's four major stock indices all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.38% to close at 4023.42 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 2.24% to 13828.63 points, the ChiNext Index up 2.85% to 3294.55 points, and the STAR 50 Index up 4.41% to 1403.41 points. Market turnover was 2567.2 billion yuan, an increase of 501.5 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, Media (+4.12%), Medicine and Biology (+3.85%), and Electronics (+3.69%) led the gains, while Petroleum and Petrochemicals (-1.29%), Banks (-0.34%), and Transportation (-0.3%) led the losses [2]. - In terms of market strength, IC > IH > IM > IF. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 4180, 116, and 1162 respectively. Institutional, main, large - investor, and retail investors' net inflows in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were 9.1 billion, - 15.4 billion, - 11.9 billion, and 18.2 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +15.5 billion, +5.3 billion, - 12.3 billion, and - 8.5 billion yuan [2]. 2. Stock Index Futures - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 56.08, 26.4, 15.15, and 0.15 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 5.83%, - 2.78%, - 2.59%, and - 0.04% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 62%, 70%, 40%, and 48% respectively [3]. - Trading strategy: In the medium - to - long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - dated contracts of each variety on dips [3]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures - On January 5th, interest - rate bonds remained flat. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0.03%, TF fell 0.02%, T rose 0.03%, and TL fell 0.05% [3]. - For the current active contract 2603: The CTD bond of the 2 - year Treasury bond futures was 250017.IB, with a yield change of +1.25bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.002, and an IRR of 1.42%; the CTD bond of the 5 - year Treasury bond futures was 2500801.IB, with a yield change of +0.25bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.051, and an IRR of 1.69%; the CTD bond of the 10 - year Treasury bond futures was 250018.IB, with a yield change of +0.9bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.012, and an IRR of 1.37%; the CTD bond of the 30 - year Treasury bond futures was 210005.IB, with a yield change of +2.75bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.091, and an IRR of 1.81% [3]. - In the open - market operations, the central bank injected 1.35 billion yuan and回笼 48.23 billion yuan, resulting in a net回笼 of 46.88 billion yuan [3]. - Trading strategy: In the medium - to - long term, with the upward shift in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL on rallies [3]. 4. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the manufacturing, real estate, import - export, and social activity sectors' prosperity is currently lower than the previous period, while the infrastructure sector's prosperity is similar to the previous period [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, the report maintains the judgment of long - term bullish on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate various stock index varieties on dips as the stock index can provide certain excess returns as a long - position substitute in the medium - to - long term [2]. - For bond futures, considering the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery in the long - term, it is suggested to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On December 31st, most of the four major A - share stock indexes declined. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.09% to close at 3968.84 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.58% to 13525.02 points, the ChiNext Index dropped 1.23% to 3203.17 points, and the STAR 50 Index decreased 1.15% to 1344.2 points. Market trading volume was 2.0658 trillion yuan, a decrease of 95.7 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, national defense and military industry (+2.13%), media (+1.54%), and real estate (+1.13%) led the gains, while communication (-1.35%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-1.1%), and electronics (-1.02%) led the losses [2]. - In terms of market strength, IC > IM > IH > IF. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 2,470, 219, and 2,768 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of - 6.4 billion, - 20.7 billion, 400 million, and 26.7 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +3 billion, - 6.3 billion, +1.8 billion, and +1.4 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 90.88, 57.77, 20.34, and 5.93 points respectively. The annualized basis yields were - 9.35%, - 6.05%, - 3.43%, and - 1.53% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 47%, 45%, 32%, and 34% respectively [2]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On December 31st, interest - rate bonds declined. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0.03%, TF dropped 0.04%, T decreased 0.07%, and TL declined 0.35% [3]. - In terms of cash bonds, for the 2 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 250017.IB, with a yield change of +0.5bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.1, and an IRR of 1.5%. For the 5 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 2500801.IB, with a yield change of +1.5bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.02, and an IRR of 1.88%. For the 10 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 250018.IB, with a yield change of +0bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.192, and an IRR of 1.07%. For the 30 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 0.25bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.488, and an IRR of 0.15% [3]. - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 528.8 billion yuan and withdrew 26 billion yuan through open - market operations, with a net injection of 502.8 billion yuan [3]. 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the prosperity of manufacturing, real estate, import - export, and social activities is currently lower than the previous period, while the prosperity of infrastructure is similar to that of the previous period [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The commodity futures market shows a complex situation with different trends and investment opportunities in various sectors such as basic metals, black industry, agricultural products, and energy - chemical [1][3][4]. - Different commodities face different supply - demand relationships, and investment strategies vary from commodity to commodity, including strategies like buying on dips, short - term and long - term trading strategies, and waiting and watching [1][3][4]. 3. Summaries by Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: Market performance on Friday was weak with oscillations. Supply remains tight, and after price adjustment, the discount narrows. The trading strategy is to buy on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: On Wednesday, the main contract rose 1.60%. Supply capacity increased slightly, and demand weakened. It is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [1]. - **Alumina**: On Wednesday, the main contract rose 0.98%. The running capacity of alumina plants is stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants operate at high loads. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main contract fell 0.62%. Supply and demand are stable, and the market is expected to oscillate between 8400 - 9200 yuan/ton. It is advisable to wait and watch [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: LC2605 closed unchanged. Supply increased in December but is expected to decline in January. Demand in the power sector is in the off - season, and it is expected to oscillate at high levels. It is advisable to wait and watch [1][2]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main contract rose 0.05%. Supply and demand are in a complex situation. The price is expected to rise, but it is recommended to wait for price corrections to enter the market [2]. - **Tin**: Market performance on Friday was weak with oscillations. Supply is tight, and inventory is decreasing. The trading strategy is to buy on dips [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2605 contract closed at 3122 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and watch and try to short the 2605 contract [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2605 contract closed at 789.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weak, and it is advisable to wait and watch [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2605 contract closed at 1115 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weak. It is advisable to wait and watch and try to short the 09 contract [4]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian market closed lower. Supply is in seasonal decline but increased year - on - year, and demand decreased. Oils are expected to oscillate weakly with variety differentiation [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans are falling. Supply is loose in the near - term and in large supply in the long - term. The trading strategy is to trade the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America [4]. - **Corn**: Futures prices fell, and spot prices were mostly stable. Supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and prices are expected to oscillate [4]. - **Sugar**: ICE and Zhengzhou sugar futures fell. The market is expected to follow the decline of international sugar, and it is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [4]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton futures fluctuated, and Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated narrowly. It is recommended to buy on dips [5]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices oscillated weakly, and spot prices rose. Supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - **Pigs**: Futures prices oscillated strongly, and spot prices fell. Supply - demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - **Apples**: Futures prices fell. The total output is low, and the quality is poor. It is recommended to wait and watch [5]. Energy - Chemical - **LLDPE**: The main contract oscillated slightly before the holiday. Supply pressure eases, and demand is in the off - season. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - **PVC**: V05 rose 0.3%. Supply is high, demand is weak, and it is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage [7]. - **PTA**: PX supply is high, and PTA supply is tight in the short - term. It is recommended to maintain a long - term long position in PX and look for opportunities to long the processing margin of PTA 05 [7]. - **Glass**: FG05 rose 1.3%. Supply decreased slightly, and demand weakened. It is advisable to wait and watch [7]. - **PP**: The main contract oscillated slightly before the holiday. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [7]. - **MEG**: Supply is high, and inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short at high prices [7][8]. - **Crude Oil**: There are geopolitical events, but supply is abundant, and demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices [8]. - **Styrene**: The main contract oscillated slightly before the holiday. Supply and demand are weak. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the medium - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [8]. - **Soda Ash**: sa05 rose 0.6%. Supply is stable, and demand is weak. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage [8].

1. Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In the medium to long term, maintain a bullish view on the economy, and suggest buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips as stock index long - position substitution offers certain outperformance [3] - In the medium to long term, with a rising risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On December 30th, most of the four major A - share stock indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index flat at 3965.12 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.49% at 13604.07 points, the ChiNext Index up 0.63% at 3242.9 points, and the STAR 50 Index up 1.01% at 1359.87 points. Market trading volume was 21,615 billion yuan, an increase of 38 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, the top gainers were petroleum and petrochemicals (+2.63%), automobiles (+1.35%), and non - ferrous metals (+1.31%); the top losers were commerce and retail (-1.56%), real estate (-1.22%), and public utilities (-1.14%) [2] - In terms of market strength, IC > IF > IH > IM, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1,837/148/3,473 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of - 94, - 144, - 14, and 253 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +117, +128, - 101, and - 144 billion yuan respectively [2] - The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts was 77.3, 41.54, 21.28, and 3.15 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 7.71%, - 4.22%, - 3.47%, and - 0.79% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 54%, 57%, 31%, and 41% respectively [2] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On December 30th, interest - rate bonds showed mixed performance. Among the active contracts, TS rose 0.01%, TF fell 0.01%, T fell 0.02%, and TL rose 0.17% [3] - For the current active 2603 contract: the CTD bond of the 2 - year Treasury bond futures was 250017.IB, with a yield change of +1 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.017, and an IRR of 1.61%; the CTD bond of the 5 - year Treasury bond futures was 2500801.IB, with a yield change of +1.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.031, and an IRR of 1.83%; the CTD bond of the 10 - year Treasury bond futures was 250018.IB, with a yield change of +0.95 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.056, and an IRR of 1.43%; the CTD bond of the 30 - year Treasury bond futures was 210005.IB, with a yield change of +0 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.065, and an IRR of 1.94% [3] - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 312.5 billion yuan and withdrew 59.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 253.2 billion yuan [3] 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the prosperity levels of manufacturing, real estate, imports and exports, and social activities are currently lower than in previous periods, while the infrastructure prosperity level is similar to that of previous periods [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints The report presents market analyses and trading strategies for various commodity futures, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the supply and demand, market performance, and price trends of each commodity, and provides corresponding trading suggestions based on these factors. Summary by Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: Market rebounded sharply; influenced by silver's decline and Fed's rate - cut decision; supply remains tight. Suggest waiting for volatility to decline [2]. - **Aluminum**: Price closed slightly lower; supply increased, demand decreased. Expected to oscillate in the short - term [2]. - **Alumina**: Price unchanged; supply decreased due to environmental control, demand remained high. Price to stay weak [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Price rose; supply increased, demand from some industries decreased. Expected to oscillate between 8400 - 9200 [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Price dropped; supply increased, demand from some sectors decreased, inventory decreased in December. Expected to oscillate at a high level [2][3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: Price rose; supply stable, demand from downstream sectors decreased. Suggest waiting for price to decline to enter the market [3]. - **Tin**: Price rebounded; supply tight, influenced by silver and Fed's decision. Suggest waiting for buying opportunities [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: Price dropped; inventory decreased, demand weak, supply decreased. Suggest waiting and trying to short the 2605 contract [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Price dropped; supply increased, demand may decrease. Suggest waiting, reference range 765 - 795 [4][5]. - **Coking Coal**: Price rose; supply and demand weak, futures overvalued. Suggest waiting and trying to short the 09 contract [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans oscillate weakly; domestic market is near - strong and far - weak. Core depends on South American output [5]. - **Corn**: Price oscillated; supply - demand contradiction is small. Futures price expected to oscillate [5]. - **Edible Oils**: Market is in oscillation and differentiation. Pay attention to production and bio - diesel policies [5]. - **Cotton**: Suggest buying at low prices, reference range 14300 - 14800 yuan/ton [5]. - **Eggs**: Price oscillated weakly; supply - demand contradiction is small. Futures price expected to oscillate [6]. - **Pigs**: Price rebounded; supply - demand pressure eased. Futures price expected to oscillate strongly [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Price oscillated; supply pressure increased but slowed, demand decreased. Suggest buying far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [7]. - **PVC**: Price dropped; supply - demand is weak, macro situation improved. Suggest reverse arbitrage [7]. - **PTA**: PX supply is balanced and loose, PTA supply is balanced and tight. Suggest mid - term long - position for PX and focus on 05 contract for PTA [7][8]. - **Glass**: Price rose; supply - demand expected to improve, undervalued. Suggest waiting [8]. - **PP**: Price oscillated; supply increased, demand decreased. Suggest buying far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [8]. - **MEG**: Price situation; supply is high, inventory increased. Suggest short - position at high prices [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Price oscillated; supply pressure is large, demand is in the off - season. Suggest short - position at high prices [8]. - **Styrene**: Price oscillated; supply - demand is weak in the short - term. Suggest long - position for styrene or reverse arbitrage for pure benzene in the second quarter [9]. - **Soda Ash**: Price rose; supply is large, demand is weak. Suggest short - position [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy in the medium - to - long term, and recommend bargain - hunting allocation of forward contracts of various varieties [2] - For treasury bond futures, with the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery in the medium - to - long term, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On December 29th, the four major A - share stock indexes showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.49%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.66%, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 0.04%. Market turnover was 21,577 billion yuan, a decrease of 234 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, petroleum and petrochemicals (+1.48%), national defense and military industry (+1.43%), and banks (+1.03%) led the gains; non - ferrous metals (-1.95%), public utilities (-1.24%), and power equipment (-1.13%) led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IM > IH > IC > IF. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1,993/139/3,325 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net capital inflows of - 21.1 billion, - 27.2 billion, 8.6 billion, and 39.6 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 19.4 billion, - 4.7 billion, +14.4 billion, and +9.7 billion yuan respectively [2] - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 93.96, 51.61, 18.57, and - 2.17 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 9.1%, - 5.11%, - 2.94%, and 0.52% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 48%, 51%, 36%, and 54% respectively [2] - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium - to - long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate forward contracts of various varieties on dips [2] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On December 29th, the trend of interest - rate bonds was weak. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0.07%, TF fell 0.18%, T fell 0.28%, and TL fell 0.91% [2] - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2603 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250017.IB, with a yield change of +0.6 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.024, and an IRR of 1.48%; for the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 2500801.IB, with a yield change of +4.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.022, and an IRR of 1.7%; for the 10 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250018.IB, with a yield change of +3.15 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.05, and an IRR of 1.36%; for the 30 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of +6 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.082, and an IRR of 1.9% [2] - **Funding Situation**: In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 482.3 billion yuan of currency and withdrew 67.3 billion yuan, with a net injection of 415 billion yuan [2] - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium - to - long term, with the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [2] 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the prosperity of manufacturing, real estate, import and export, and social activities is temporarily lower than in previous periods, while the prosperity of infrastructure is similar to that in previous periods [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For gold, the price is expected to rise steadily, so it is recommended to go long; for silver, there is short - term upside potential due to strong speculative sentiment, but future volatility will increase, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - For basic metals like copper, it is recommended to wait and see for a buying point; aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the short - term; alumina prices will maintain a weak trend [2]. - For industrial silicon, the market is expected to oscillate within a certain range, and it is advisable to wait and see; for lithium carbonate, the short - term has callback pressure and is expected to oscillate at a high level, so it is advisable to wait and see; for polysilicon, it is recommended to wait for the price to回调 to the spot price range and then layout long positions; for tin, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For the black industry, for螺纹 steel, it is advisable to wait and see and try to short the 2605 contract; for iron ore, it is advisable to wait and see; for coking coal, it is advisable to wait and see and try to short the 09 contract [4]. - For agricultural products, for soybean meal, the US soybean market oscillates weakly, and the domestic market is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term; for corn, the futures price is expected to oscillate; for oils and fats, the market is in a stage of oscillation and differentiation; for sugar, it is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options; for cotton, it is recommended to buy long at low prices; for eggs, the futures price is expected to oscillate; for live pigs, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [5][6][7]. - For energy and chemicals, for LLDPE, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and advisable to go long on far - month contracts in the long - term; for PVC, it is recommended to do reverse arbitrage; for PTA, it is advisable to maintain a long - term long position for PX and look for opportunities to buy processing fees for PTA; for rubber, it is advisable to hold short positions in the short - term; for glass, it is recommended to do reverse arbitrage; for PP, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and advisable to go long on far - month contracts in the long - term; for MEG, it is recommended to short at high prices; for crude oil, it is recommended to short at high prices; for styrene, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term and advisable to go long on styrene or do pure benzene reverse arbitrage and long on styrene profits in the second quarter; for soda ash, it is recommended to short [8][9][10][11]. Summary by Directory Gold Market - Market Performance: On Monday, precious metal prices rose and then fell sharply, with London gold down more than 4% and London silver down 8.79% [1]. - Fundamentals: Trump pressured the Fed and may sue Powell; he said the Russia - Ukraine conflict negotiation was in the final stage; the Bank of Japan hinted at more interest rate hikes; domestic gold ETFs had a large outflow, and there were changes in inventories of various gold - related products [1]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on gold; wait and see for silver [1]. Basic Metals Copper - Market Performance: The copper price rose sharply and then fell yesterday [2]. - Fundamentals: The sharp adjustment of precious metals led to the adjustment of the metal sector. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and downstream orders stagnated after price increases [2]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see for a buying point [2]. Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.74% compared with the previous trading day [2]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased slightly [2]. - Trading Strategy: The short - term aluminum price is expected to oscillate [2]. Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 1.50% compared with the previous trading day [2]. - Fundamentals: Some alumina plants in Henan and Shanxi reduced production due to environmental protection, while electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - Trading Strategy: The price will maintain a weak trend, and attention should be paid to the progress of mergers and acquisitions and other factors [2]. Industrial Metals Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: On Monday, the price opened flat, oscillated up in the morning, and fell nearly 3% in the afternoon [3]. - Fundamentals: The number of open furnaces increased, social inventory slightly increased, and the production of polysilicon and organic silicon decreased [3]. - Trading Strategy: The market is expected to oscillate within the range of 8400 - 9200, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: LC2605 closed at 118,820 yuan/ton, down 9% [3]. - Fundamentals: The price of Australian lithium concentrate increased, production increased, demand for some materials decreased, and inventory is expected to increase in Q1 [3]. - Trading Strategy: The short - term has callback pressure and is expected to oscillate at a high level, so it is advisable to wait and see [3]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract closed at 56500 yuan/ton, down 4.16% [3]. - Fundamentals: Production is expected to decrease, inventory increased slightly, demand for some products decreased, and the annual installed capacity is expected to break through 300GW [3]. - Trading Strategy: Wait for the price to回调 to the spot price range and then layout long positions [3]. Tin - Market Performance: The tin price rose and then fell sharply yesterday [3]. - Fundamentals: The adjustment of precious metals led to the adjustment of the metal sector. The supply of tin ore remained tight, and domestic warehouse receipts decreased [3]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see [3]. Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The rebar main 2605 contract closed at 3135 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: The building material inventory decreased, demand was weak year - on - year, supply decreased significantly year - on - year, and the futures discount was large [4]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see and try to short the 2605 contract [4]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The iron ore main 2605 contract closed at 796 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: The arrival volume increased, port inventory increased, coke prices were lowered, and the supply and demand were neutral [4]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see [4]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The coking coal main 2605 contract closed at 1108.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: The molten iron output remained flat, coke prices were lowered, inventory was at a neutral level, and the futures premium was high [4]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see and try to short the 09 contract [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market Performance: Overnight, CBOT soybeans fell [5]. - Fundamentals: The supply is loose in the near - term and expected to be large in the long - term in South America; the US soybean crushing is strong, and the export progress is slow [5]. - Trading Strategy: The US soybean market oscillates weakly, and the domestic market is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term [5]. Corn - Market Performance: The corn futures price increased significantly, and the spot price decreased in Shandong and increased in the Northeast [5]. - Fundamentals: The grain sales progress was slower than last year, farmers were reluctant to sell, downstream inventory increased, and the procurement enthusiasm decreased [5]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate [5]. Oils and Fats - Market Performance: The Malaysian market closed lower yesterday [7]. - Fundamentals: The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased seasonally in December, and exports increased [7]. - Trading Strategy: The market is in a stage of oscillation and differentiation [7]. Sugar - Market Performance: The SR05 contract closed at 5263 yuan/ton, up 0.13% [7]. - Fundamentals: The sales progress is slow, and the futures price is expected to follow the fundamental logic after the macro - sentiment cools down [7]. - Trading Strategy: Short in the futures market and sell call options [7]. Cotton - Market Performance: The overnight ICE US cotton futures price rose and then fell [7]. - Fundamentals: The US cotton inspection situation and Japanese clothing import data; the domestic cotton futures price oscillated narrowly [7]. - Trading Strategy: Buy long at low prices [7]. Eggs - Market Performance: The egg futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price partially decreased [7]. - Fundamentals: The laying hen inventory decreased, the elimination enthusiasm decreased, and the demand was supported at low prices [7]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate [7]. Live Pigs - Market Performance: The live pig futures price rebounded, and the spot price continued to rise [7]. - Fundamentals: The supply is still abundant, the demand is expected to increase seasonally, and the supply - demand pressure has eased [7]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [7]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market Performance: The main contract oscillated slightly yesterday, and the import window was closed [8]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply pressure increased but at a slower pace, and the demand in the downstream agricultural film sector decreased [8]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, and go long on far - month contracts in the long - term [8]. PVC - Market Performance: The V05 contract closed at 4776, up 0.3% [9]. - Fundamentals: The price rebounded due to macro - drivers, but the fundamentals did not keep up. The supply and demand were stable, and the inventory was high [9]. - Trading Strategy: Do reverse arbitrage [9]. PTA - Market Performance: The PX CFR China price was 919 dollars/ton, and the PTA East China spot price was 5175 yuan/ton [9]. - Fundamentals: The PX supply was high, the PTA short - term supply decreased, and the polyester demand decreased [9]. - Trading Strategy: Maintain a long - term long position for PX and look for opportunities to buy processing fees for PTA [9]. Rubber - Market Performance: The RU2605 contract closed at 15665 yuan/ton, down 0.54% [9]. - Fundamentals: The Thai raw material price was stable, the inventory increased, and the market sentiment was wait - and - see [9]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in the short - term [9]. Glass - Market Performance: The FG05 contract closed at 1052, up 0.5% [9]. - Fundamentals: The supply decreased slightly, the demand decreased seasonally, and the inventory was high [9]. - Trading Strategy: Do reverse arbitrage [9]. PP - Market Performance: The main contract oscillated slightly yesterday, and the import window was closed [10]. - Fundamentals: The supply increased, the demand decreased, and the export window opened [10]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, and go long on far - month contracts in the long - term [10]. MEG - Market Performance: The East China spot price was 3666 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was - 152 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: The supply was high, the inventory increased, and the polyester demand decreased [10]. - Trading Strategy: Short at high prices [10]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: The oil price opened high and went high yesterday due to geopolitical events [10]. - Fundamentals: The supply was high, the demand was in the off - season, and the inventory was above the five - year average [10]. - Trading Strategy: Short at high prices [10]. Styrene - Market Performance: The main contract oscillated slightly yesterday, and the import window was closed [10]. - Fundamentals: The pure benzene and styrene inventories were at a normal - to - high level, and the demand was in the off - season [10]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillate in the short - term, and go long on styrene or do pure benzene reverse arbitrage and long on styrene profits in the second quarter [10]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: The SA05 contract closed at 1182, down 0.6% [11]. - Fundamentals: The supply increased due to new device production, the inventory decreased from a high level, and the downstream demand was weak [11]. - Trading Strategy: Short [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The next - week view is that the price trend of lithium carbonate will be oscillating and strengthening. The current market is pricing in advance the expected increase in the price center in 2026, and the price is likely to rise rather than fall before the high - growth of energy storage demand in 2026 can be falsified. The behavior of listed companies in the industry reflects their recognition of the increase in the price center in 2026 and the downstream's high confidence in the high growth of demand, as well as their attempt to negotiate the further price transfer of industrial chain profits [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Observation - **Price**: LC2605 closed at 130,520 yuan/ton (+19,120), a week - on - week increase of 17.2%. The spot price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) on Friday was 1,510 US dollars/ton, an increase of 175 US dollars/ton from last week. SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate was reported at 111,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 14,250 yuan/ton from last week. The basis weakened to - 16,660 yuan/ton [4]. - **Valuation**: The funds settled in the lithium carbonate variety last week rose to 29.86 billion yuan (+4.1 billion), with 16.56 billion yuan (+170 million) in LC2605, 3.13 billion yuan (+1.68 billion) in LC2607, and 3.37 billion yuan (+1.77 billion) in LC2609 [4]. - **Supply**: The production of lithium carbonate in November was 95,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3%. It is expected to be 98,000 tons in December, a month - on - month increase of 3.0%. The weekly production of lithium carbonate was 22,161 tons (+116 tons) [4]. - **Inventory**: This week, the sample inventory was 109,000 tons, with a de - stocking of 653 tons; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 17,861 (+2,350) lots; the inventory days of lithium carbonate were 26.1 days (-0.1 days) [4]. - **New Energy Vehicle Demand**: In November, the domestic production of new energy vehicles was 1.88 million, a year - on - year increase of 20% and a month - on - month increase of 6.1%. The retail sales of domestic new energy passenger cars were 1.354 million, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3% and a year - on - year increase of 8.2% [4]. - **Energy Storage Demand**: The total tendering capacity of EPC and energy storage systems in November was 51.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 208%. The winning bid capacity in October was 16.3 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 68%. It is expected that energy storage projects will start intensively in December and show an increase from March next year, and the domestic energy storage market will maintain high prosperity next year [4]. - **Consumer Electronics Demand**: In November, the production of consumer electronics improved month - on - month. The production of smartphones and micro - electronic computers was 117.89 million units and 27.49 million units respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 0.8% and 13.5%. The production of cobalt - lithium oxide in November was 13,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.6% [4]. 3.2 Industry Analysis: Lithium - Supply - The price of Australian lithium ore quotes rose to 1,510 US dollars/ton (+175 US dollars/ton), and the inventory of available lithium ore increased to 146,000 tons [17]. - The production of lithium carbonate in November was 95,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3%, and it is expected to be 98,000 tons in December, a month - on - month increase of 3.0% [20]. - The production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene in November was 57,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.0%, and it is expected to be 60,800 tons in December, a month - on - month increase of 5.3%. It is expected that the production from salt lakes will decrease seasonally, while that from mica will increase month - on - month [24]. - The production of lithium hydroxide in November was 29,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%, and it is expected to be 28,900 tons in December, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2% [29]. - In November, the domestic production capacity of lithium carbonate increased to 184,000 tons/year, a month - on - month increase of 1.7%, and the production capacity of lithium hydroxide increased to 68,700 tons/year, a month - on - month increase of 2.7% [32]. - This week, the smelting start - up rate of lithium carbonate slightly rose to 55.1% [35]. - The production of lithium chloride in November was 5,050 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.0%, and it is expected to be 4,750 tons in December. The price of lithium chloride rose to 83,300 yuan/ton [37]. - In November, the import of lithium concentrate was 677,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.6%, and the import of lithium salts was 22,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6% [40]. - The recycling volume of waste lithium batteries in November increased to 33,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.8% [44]. 3.3 Industry Analysis: Lithium - Demand - The production of lithium iron phosphate in November was 413,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.7%, and it is expected to be 410,000 tons in December, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. The production of ternary materials in November was 84,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%, and it is expected to be 78,000 tons in December, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% [48]. - The production of cobalt - lithium oxide in November was 13,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%, and it is expected to be 13,000 tons in December, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. The production of manganese - lithium oxide in November was 13,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%, and it is expected to be 12,000 tons in December, a month - on - month decrease of 3.9%. The production of lithium hexafluorophosphate in November was 28,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.0%, and it is expected to be 29,000 tons in December, a month - on - month increase of 1.6% [51]. - The production of power and energy storage batteries in November was 176.3 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.3%. The installed capacity of power batteries in November was 93.5 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 6.1%. The production of domestic new energy passenger cars in November was 1.88 million, a month - on - month increase of 6.1%, and the sales volume was 1.823 million, a month - on - month increase of 6.3% [54]. - The production of pure - electric and plug - in hybrid vehicles in November was 1.756 million, a month - on - month increase of 6.0% [57]. - The retail sales of domestic new energy passenger cars in November was 1.354 million, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3% and a year - on - year increase of 8.2%, with a weekly penetration rate of 57.5% [60]. - In November, the profit of the automobile industry declined, and the inventory of pure new energy vehicle manufacturers and channels increased to 740,000 [63]. - The global sales of new energy vehicles in November were 2.241 million, a year - on - year increase of 19.1% and a month - on - month increase of 5.8%. The sales of new energy vehicles in the US dropped sharply after the subsidy window period on October 1st, with a sales volume of 84,000, a year - on - year decrease of 42.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.4% [67]. - The energy storage demand was high, but limited by the slowdown of capacity growth, the orders were scheduled until next year. The production of energy storage cells in November was 57.5 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 5.9%, and it is expected to be 57.4 GWh in December, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. The industry's start - up rate in November remained unchanged at 89.5%, and the inventory was 39.9 GWh (-2.1 GWh), with a monthly export of 8.8 GWh of energy storage batteries [70]. - The tendering capacity of energy storage in November was 51.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 208%, including 49.4 GWh for EPC and 1.8 GWh for energy storage systems [75]. - The winning bid capacity in October was 16.3 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 68%. The winning bid prices of EPC and energy storage systems increased to 1.28 yuan/Wh and 0.60 yuan/Wh respectively [80]. - Overseas energy storage maintained high prosperity. Different countries have different development trends and policies, such as India's mandatory energy storage policy, and European countries being stimulated by dynamic electricity prices and subsidy policies [83]. - The domestic consumer - type lithium battery market slightly rebounded in November [84]. - In November, the export of lithium carbonate was 759 tons, a month - on - month increase of 209%, and the export of lithium hydroxide was 3,356 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.7% [87]. 3.4 Industry Analysis: Lithium - Inventory and Valuation - **Inventory**: This week, the sample inventory was 109,000 tons, with a de - stocking of 653 tons; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 17,861 (+2,350) lots; the inventory days of lithium carbonate were 26.1 days (-0.1 days) [91]. - **Valuation**: The basis weakened to - 16,660 yuan/ton, the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium hydroxide strengthened to +8,848 yuan/ton; the price difference between 01 and 03 contracts weakened by 620 yuan/ton, and the price difference between 01 and 05 contracts weakened to - 2,720 yuan/ton [93]. - The estimated gross profit margin of lithium salt plants continued to be in a loss state; the raw material prices rose rapidly, and the theoretical gross profit margins of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials declined [96]. - The IV of the main at - the - money options rebounded to 0.5, and the open interest slightly decreased to 1.04 million lots [99].

金融研究 2025年12月29日 星期一 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 股指期货 市场表现：12 月 26 日，A 股四大股指多数上涨，其中上证指数上涨 0.1%，报收 3963.68 点；深成 指上涨 0.54%，报收 13603.89 点；创业板指上涨 0.14%，报收 3243.88 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.24%， 报收 1345.83 点。市场成交 21,811 亿元，较前日增加 2,372 亿元。行业板块方面，有色金属(+3.69%)， 电力设备(+1.4%)，钢铁(+1.34%)涨幅居前；电子(-0.71%)，轻工制造(-0.61%)，通信(-0.6%)跌幅居 前。从市场强弱看，IC>IH>IM>IF，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,865/186/3,406。沪深两市，机构、主力、 大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-17、-225、-57、300 亿元，分别变动+40、-78、-11、+49 亿元。 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 75.53、43.44、15.24 与-1.8 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-7.09%、-4.16%、-2.34%与 0.42%，三年期历史分位 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints Market Logic - Bullish on the stock market at the beginning of the year due to five reasons, including the end of concerns about yen carry - trade after the yen interest - rate hike, the Fed's shift to "technical expansion of the balance sheet", potential institutional capital inflows at the beginning of the year, proactive fiscal policy in China, and the potential for A - share valuation and profit repair. Hong Kong stocks have additional advantages of low valuation and the end of the解禁 peak, and commodities are expected to remain strong due to the revaluation of physical assets [6]. - In the US, the real GDP growth rate in Q3 reached 4.3%, higher than expected. Growth was driven by personal consumption, net exports, and government spending. However, there are internal economic disparities, and caution is needed due to potential temporary factors and a possible government shutdown in Q4 [7]. - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar broke through the 7.0 mark, driven by factors such as the decline of the US dollar index, narrowing of the Sino - US interest - rate spread, and improved Sino - US economic and trade relations. This is a sustainable trend, but short - term over - adjustment risks need to be watched [8]. - From January to November 2025 in China, the cumulative profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased slightly by 0.1% year - on - year, but the profit decreased by 13.1% in November. There are significant differences in industry performance, with the export and high - tech manufacturing sectors supporting profits, while domestic - demand - related industries dragging down the overall growth [9]. - From a meso - economic perspective, the high - frequency economic activity index is at a high level in recent years but has declined significantly. Land transaction area has increased, while traditional industries such as real estate, infrastructure, and some key anti - involution products are under pressure [10]. Logic of Major Asset Classes | Asset Class | Logic | Risk Points | Allocation Suggestion | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stocks | Medium - to long - term: Global fiscal and monetary policies are jointly exerting force, China's PPI and industrial enterprise profits have bottomed out, capital is flowing, and global demand is stable. Short - term: Expectations of further Fed rate cuts, new valuation space in the new year, and the end of concerns about yen carry - trade. | Escalation of Sino - US confrontation, fiscal policy falling short of expectations | Long - term increase in allocation, optimistic about the pre - Spring Festival market [11]. | | Bonds | Medium - to long - term: Limited domestic rate - cut space, inflation and economic improvement due to the unified market, and the stock - bond seesaw effect. Short - term: Bond yields have risen significantly, and economic momentum lacks explosiveness. | Escalation of Sino - US confrontation, fiscal policy falling short of expectations | Long - term reduction in allocation [11]. | | Commodities | Medium - to long - term: Fiscal and monetary policies will drive PPI to turn positive next year, Fed rate cuts will weaken the US dollar, and short - duration commodities are affected by real - world factors. Short - term: Abundant liquidity leads to the revaluation of physical assets such as non - ferrous metals and precious metals, while the demand for the black - chain is weak. | Escalation of Sino - US confrontation, fiscal policy falling short of expectations | Long - term increase in allocation of precious metals and non - ferrous metals, trading opportunities in anti - involution - related varieties [11]. | 3. Summary by Directory 01 Core Viewpoints - **Market Logic**: Bullish on the stock market at the beginning of the year, analyze the US economic situation, the RMB exchange - rate trend, China's industrial enterprise profit status, and meso - economic indicators [6][7][8][9][10]. - **Logic of Major Asset Classes**: Provide investment logic, risk points, and allocation suggestions for stocks, bonds, and commodities [11]. 02 Quantitative Analysis - **Investment Index Performance**: Present the performance of different asset classes in terms of recent returns (weekly, monthly, year - to - date, quarterly), drawdowns, Sharpe ratios, and Calmar ratios [22]. - **Valuation, Volatility, and Speculation Degree**: Analyze the valuation, volatility, trend smoothness, and speculation degree of different asset classes, including the original values and their percentile rankings over one - year and three - year periods [23]. - **Stock - Futures Linkage**: Compare the performance of commodity - related indices and stock - related indices in terms of weekly, monthly, and year - to - date returns [25]. 03 Macro - overview - **Domestic Situation**: In November, the unemployment rate remained stable, the CPI continued to rise, the M1 growth rate decreased significantly, and the PMI showed a slight rebound [27][33]. - **Overseas Situation**: The US PMI decreased in November, and the US - Europe interest - rate spread and risk indicators are analyzed [36][39]. 04 Meso - data - **Economic Activity**: In November, industrial added value decreased slightly compared to October, and indicators such as flight volume, subway passenger volume, and the high - frequency economic activity index are presented [46]. - **Real Estate**: Multiple real - estate indicators are at the bottom, while PVC demand is at a high level, including land transaction area, housing sales area, and demand for building materials [49]. - **Shipping and Exports**: Shipping freight indices and export data of some key commodities are presented, including CCFI, CICFI, the Belt and Road trade - volume index, and the export growth rate of home appliances, integrated circuits, and automobiles [65].