1. Overall Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The commodity futures market is influenced by a variety of factors, including economic data, geopolitical events, and supply - demand dynamics. Different commodities show different trends and investment opportunities due to their unique fundamentals [2][4][9]. - In the precious metals market, the price of gold and silver is affected by factors such as US economic data, Fed officials' statements, and inventory changes. In the base metals market, copper, aluminum, and other metals are affected by market risk preferences, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes. In the black industry, steel, iron ore, and other products are affected by factors such as supply - demand balance and cost changes. In the agricultural products market, factors such as supply - demand balance, weather, and policies affect the prices of soybeans, corn, and other products. In the energy and chemical industry, factors such as new device production, demand, and geopolitical risks affect the prices of LLDPE, PVC, and other products [2][4][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Overnight, precious metal prices rose and then fell, with London gold reaching $4000/ounce. The US included copper and silver in the new key minerals list, and US employment data was weak. Domestic gold ETF inflows were 1.1 tons. Suggest buying at the lower support level [2]. - **Silver**: Multiple factors influenced the market, and it is recommended to reduce long positions [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices oscillated. The market risk preference declined, and the supply of copper ore remained tight. It is recommended to treat it with an interval - oscillation mindset in the short term [4]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 1.10%. Supply increased slightly, and demand decreased slightly. Pay attention to the de - stocking of aluminum ingots [4]. - **Alumina**: The price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.54%. Supply decreased due to environmental protection, and demand remained high. The market is in an oversupply pattern, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Zinc**: The price of the zinc main contract increased slightly. Supply increased, and demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to sell short at high prices [5]. - **Lead**: The price of the lead main contract decreased slightly. Supply was marginally loose, and demand was mixed. It is recommended to operate within an interval [5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main contract increased. Supply decreased, and demand was supported by polysilicon. The price is expected to operate between 8600 - 9400, and it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract increased. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was high. It is recommended to try to buy on dips [6]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. Supply decreased, and demand was under pressure. It is recommended to buy on dips or sell put options [6]. - **Tin**: Tin prices oscillated weakly. Market risk preferences fluctuated, and supply was expected to ease. It is recommended to use an interval - oscillation mindset in the short term [6]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the rebar main contract increased. Supply and demand weakened marginally, and the futures price was at a high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the iron ore main contract decreased. Supply and demand were neutral and deteriorated marginally. It is recommended to exit and wait, and aggressive investors can try to short [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the coking coal main contract decreased slightly. Supply and demand were affected by steel production, and the futures price was at a high valuation. It is recommended to exit and wait, and aggressive investors can try to short [8]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans may enter an oscillation phase. Domestic supply is relatively loose, and the medium - term trend depends on tariff policies and production in the producing areas [9]. - **Corn**: Corn futures prices rose, and spot prices were mixed. New grain is about to be listed, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [9]. - **Sugar**: The price of the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract increased slightly. Internationally, sugar production is expected to increase, and it is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [9]. - **Cotton**: International cotton prices fell, and domestic cotton prices oscillated weakly. It is recommended to wait and see within the 13400 - 13700 range [9]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded. Supply increased, and demand increased slightly. The market is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to production and policies [10]. - **Eggs**: Egg futures and spot prices rose. Supply decreased, and demand increased seasonally. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly [10]. - **Pigs**: Pig futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices were mixed. Supply is sufficient, and prices are expected to be weak [10]. - **Apples**: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. Different regions have different situations, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The price of the LLDPE main contract continued to decline slightly. Supply pressure increased but at a slower pace, and demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - long term [11]. - **PVC**: The price of the PVC main contract decreased. Supply increased, and demand was weak. It is recommended to short or do a reverse spread [12]. - **PTA**: PX supply increased, and PTA supply pressure was high in the medium - long term. It is recommended to take profit on long positions and short the processing fee in the far - month contracts [12]. - **Glass**: The price of the glass main contract decreased. Supply decreased due to production line shutdowns, and demand improved. It is recommended to do a reverse spread [12]. - **PP**: The price of the PP main contract continued to decline slightly. Supply increased, and demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - long term [12]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices fell. Supply pressure increased, and demand was seasonally weak. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and it can be shorted at high prices if Russian oil production reduction is less than 500,000 barrels per day [13]. - **Styrene**: The price of the styrene main contract continued to decline slightly. Supply and demand were weak, and it is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - long term [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of the soda ash main contract increased. Supply and demand were balanced, and it is recommended to wait and see [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index futures market, maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy. Using stock indices as long - term substitutes has certain excess returns, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [2]. - For the bond futures market, be short - term bullish. The implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds at 2.2 is cost - effective. In the medium - to - long - term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On November 6, the four major A - share stock indices were strong. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.97% to 4007.76 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73% to 13452.42 points, the ChiNext Index rose 1.84% to 3224.62 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 3.34% to 1436.86 points. Market turnover was 20,759 billion yuan, an increase of 1,816 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, non - ferrous metals (+3.05%), electronics (+3%), and communications (+2.37%) led the gains; media (-1.35%), social services (-1.1%), and commercial retail (-1.04%) led the losses [2]. - From the perspective of market strength, IC > IF > IH > IM. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 2,876, 179, and 2,384 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had net inflows of 44, - 82, - 53, and 91 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +71, +26, - 12, and - 84 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 146.83, 99.32, 22.6, and 3.34 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 15.19%, - 10.56%, - 3.76%, and - 0.86% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 14%, 17%, 25%, and 37% respectively [2]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On November 6, interest - rate bonds were basically flat. Among the active contracts, TS rose 0.01%, TF fell 0.03%, T fell 0.09%, and TL fell 0.28% [3]. - For the current active 2512 contract, the CTD bond of the 2 - year Treasury bond futures was 250012.IB, with a yield change of - 0.25bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.036, and an IRR of 1.76%; the CTD bond of the 5 - year Treasury bond futures was 250003.IB, with a yield change of +0.25bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.03, and an IRR of 1.7%; the CTD bond of the 10 - year Treasury bond futures was 250018.IB, with a yield change of +1.25bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.038, and an IRR of 1.73%; the CTD bond of the 30 - year Treasury bond futures was 210005.IB, with a yield change of +2bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.092, and an IRR of 2.07% [3]. - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 928 billion yuan and withdrew 3,426 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2,498 billion yuan [3]. 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that recently, except for the manufacturing sector, the prosperity of each sector is lower than the same period in previous years [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It presents market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies for each sector, suggesting different approaches such as buying on dips, selling on rallies, or waiting and observing based on the specific market conditions [2][3][6]. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Overnight, precious metal prices rebounded, with international gold prices rising over 1% to $3978 per ounce. The US political situation and economic data influenced the market. Domestic gold ETFs had an inflow of 1.1 tons. The trading strategy is to buy on support for gold and reduce long positions for silver [2]. - **Silver**: Inventories in various exchanges decreased. The trading strategy is to reduce long positions [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price oscillated and stabilized. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and domestic demand was expected to improve. The trading strategy is to wait for buying opportunities on dips [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased slightly. The supply increased, while the demand weakened. The price may be under pressure to correct [3]. - **Alumina**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. The supply decreased due to environmental protection measures, while the demand remained stable. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - **Zinc**: The price decreased slightly. The processing fees of zinc concentrate increased, but the terminal orders were weak. The trading strategy is to sell on rallies [4]. - **Lead**: The price increased slightly. The supply was marginally loose, but the lead concentrate was in tight balance. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [4]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price oscillated. The supply decreased, and the demand was supported. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price decreased slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand increased. The price may have short - term correction pressure but is supported by strong demand. The trading strategy is to wait and observe [5]. - **Polysilicon**: The price decreased slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand was affected by policies. The trading strategy is to buy on dips or consider selling put options [5]. - **Tin**: The price oscillated and stabilized. The supply was tight, and the demand improved. The trading strategy is to wait for buying opportunities on dips [5]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price decreased slightly. The supply and demand had limited contradictions, and the futures discount marginally shrank. The trading strategy is to wait and observe [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price increased slightly. The supply increased, and the demand decreased. The trading strategy is to exit and wait and observe [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The price increased slightly. The supply and demand were neutral, and the futures premium was high. The trading strategy is to wait and observe [7]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans may enter an oscillation phase. The domestic market follows the cost - end and oscillates strongly. The medium - term trend depends on tariff policies and production [8]. - **Corn**: The futures price oscillates in a narrow range. The spot price is expected to be weak. The trading strategy is to expect the futures price to oscillate in a range [8]. - **Oils and Fats**: The price is weak and shows differentiation among varieties. The trading strategy is to be bearish and focus on reverse spreads [8]. - **Sugar**: The international price is weak, and the domestic price shows an internal - strong and external - weak pattern. The trading strategy is to sell short in the futures market and sell call options [8]. - **Cotton**: The international price decreased, and the domestic price oscillated narrowly. The trading strategy is to sell short on rallies [9]. - **Eggs**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly. The trading strategy is to expect the futures price to oscillate in a range [9]. - **Pigs**: The price is expected to be weak. The trading strategy is to expect the futures price to be weak [9]. - **Apples**: The price increased. The trading strategy is to wait and observe [9]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The price decreased slightly. The supply pressure increased but at a slower pace, and the demand weakened. The short - term trend is to oscillate weakly, and the long - term strategy is to sell short on rallies [10]. - **PTA**: The supply pressure is large in the long - term, and the demand improved. The trading strategy is to take profit on long positions of PX and sell short on rallies for PTA [11]. - **Rubber**: The price decreased slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [11]. - **PP**: The price decreased slightly. The supply increased, and the demand weakened. The short - term trend is to oscillate weakly, and the long - term strategy is to sell short on rallies [11]. - **MEG**: The supply pressure is large in the long - term, and the inventory is accumulating. The trading strategy is to sell short on rallies [12]. - **Crude Oil**: The price decreased. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and short - selling can be considered if the Russian oil reduction is less than expected [12]. - **Styrene**: The price decreased slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The short - term trend is to oscillate weakly, and the long - term strategy is to sell short on rallies [12].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On November 5th, the four major A-share stock indices opened lower and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.23% to 3,969.25 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.37% to 13,223.56 points, the ChiNext Index rose 1.03% to 3,166.23 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.23% to 1,390.39 points. Market turnover was 1.8943 trillion yuan, a decrease of 44.1 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, power equipment (+3.4%), coal (+1.39%), and commercial and retail (+1.22%) led the gains, while computer (-0.97%), non-bank finance (-0.49%), and communication (-0.43%) led the losses [2]. - From the perspective of market strength, IM > IC > IF > IH. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 3,376, 161, and 1,902 respectively. Net capital inflows from institutions, the main force, large investors, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were -2.6 billion yuan, -10.8 billion yuan, -4.1 billion yuan, and 17.5 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +34.9 billion yuan, +9.2 billion yuan, -21.6 billion yuan, and -22.5 billion yuan respectively [2]. 2. Stock Index Futures - The basis of the next-month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 154.06, 121.34, 30.66, and 5.37 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were -15.64%, -12.72%, -5.02%, and -1.35% respectively. The three-year historical quantiles were 13%, 11%, 20%, and 32% respectively [3]. - The trading strategy is to maintain a long position on the economy in the medium to long term. Currently, using stock index futures as a long substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long positions in forward contracts of various varieties on dips [3]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures - The current active contract is the 2512 contract. The CTD bonds for the 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bond futures are 250012.IB, 250003.IB, 250018.IB, and 210005.IB respectively. The yield changes were +0.25bps, +0.75bps, +0.1bps, and +0.45bps respectively, corresponding to net bases of -0.027, -0.068, -0.022, and 0.012, and IRRs of 1.68%, 2.03%, 1.63%, and 1.36% respectively [4]. - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 6.55 billion yuan and withdrew 55.77 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 49.22 billion yuan [4]. - The trading strategy is to be bullish in the short term, as the implied interest rate of ultra-long bonds at 2.2 is already cost-effective. In the medium to long term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [4]. 4. Economic Data - High-frequency data shows that recently, except for the manufacturing sector, the prosperity of each sector is lower than the same period in previous years [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It presents market performance, fundamental factors, and trading strategies for each commodity. Overall, the market conditions are complex and diverse, with different commodities facing different supply - demand situations and price trends. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Basic Metals - **Copper**: Market price continued to weaken significantly yesterday. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the downstream demand needs to be boosted. The recommended strategy is to wait for opportunities to buy on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.62% compared to the previous trading day. The smelters maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased slightly [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the main contract decreased by 0.68% compared to the previous trading day. Affected by pollution warnings, some northern plants stopped production. The market is expected to be in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [1]. - **Zinc**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc 2511 contract increased by 0.44% compared to the previous trading day. The zinc concentrate processing fee increased significantly, but the import ore loss expanded. The consumption is in the off - season, and the recommended strategy is to sell on rallies [1]. - **Lead**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead 2511 contract remained unchanged compared to the previous trading day. The supply side is marginally loose, and the demand side has mixed factors. The lead price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the recommended strategy is to operate within a range [1][2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main 01 contract price decreased by 2.79%. The supply side is gradually reducing production, and the demand side is relatively balanced. The price is expected to operate in the range of 8600 - 9400, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2601 contract price decreased by 4.52%. The supply is expected to decrease slightly in November, and the demand is strong. The price is expected to have short - term correction pressure but is supported by demand, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [2]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main 01 contract price decreased by 4.19%. The supply is expected to decline in November, and the downstream demand is weak. The recommended strategy is to try to buy on dips or consider selling put options [2]. - **Tin**: The price oscillated weakly. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the domestic demand needs to be boosted. The recommended strategy is to wait for opportunities to buy on dips [2][3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2601 contract price decreased. The building material inventory decreased, and the supply - demand contradiction is limited. The recommended strategy is to wait and see, with the RB01 reference range of 2980 - 3050 [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2601 contract price decreased. The supply - demand situation is neutral and deteriorating. The recommended strategy is to hold short positions, with the I01 reference range of 750 - 780 [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2601 contract price decreased. The steel mill profit has deteriorated, and the supply - side inventory is differentiated. The recommended strategy is to wait and see, with the JM01 reference range of 1230 - 1280 [4]. Agricultural Products Market - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight CBOT soybean price fell. The supply side has a slight reduction in US soybeans and an expected increase in South American soybeans. The demand side has improved export expectations. The US soybeans may enter an oscillation phase, and the domestic market is also expected to be volatile [5][6]. - **Corn**: The futures price oscillated narrowly, and the spot price mostly rose. The new crop is expected to increase in production, and the price is expected to be weak. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - **Oils and Fats**: The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded slightly. The supply in Malaysia is higher than expected, and the export is expected to increase. The oils and fats market is weak and differentiated, and the recommended strategy is to focus on reverse spreads [6]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract price decreased. The international market is expected to increase in production, and the domestic market has a short - term rebound. The recommended strategy is to sell short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price fell. The international and domestic cotton markets have different situations. The recommended strategy is to sell short on rallies, with the strategy range of 13400 - 13700 [6]. - **Eggs**: The futures price oscillated narrowly, and the spot price was stable. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is seasonally increasing. The egg price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [6]. - **Pigs**: The futures price was weak, and the spot price fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is seasonally increasing. The price is expected to be weak, and the futures price is also expected to be weak [6][7]. - **Apples**: The main contract price decreased. The cold - storage situation in Gansu is not optimistic, and the apple disease in Shaanxi affects the market. The trading in Shandong is active. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemical - **LLDPE**: The main contract price continued to decline slightly. The supply pressure is increasing but at a slower pace, and the demand is weakening. The short - term price is expected to be weak and volatile, and the medium - long - term strategy is to sell short on rallies or do reverse spreads [8]. - **PTA**: The PX price is at a high level, and the PTA supply pressure is large in the long - term. The recommended strategy is to take profit on long PX positions and sell short the PTA processing fee on rallies in the far - month contracts [8]. - **Rubber**: The RU2601 contract price decreased. The rainy season in Thailand is about to end, and the inventory is expected to increase. The price is under short - term pressure [8][9]. - **PP**: The main contract price continued to decline slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The short - term price is expected to be weak and volatile, and the medium - long - term strategy is to sell short on rallies or do reverse spreads [9]. - **MEG**: The supply pressure is large in the long - term, and the inventory is accumulating. The recommended strategy is to sell short on rallies for the 01 contract [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The price is oscillating. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is seasonally weakening. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and if the Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels per day, it can be sold short on rallies [9]. - **Styrene**: The main contract price continued to decline slightly. The supply - demand contradiction is large, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term. The medium - long - term strategy is to sell short on rallies or do reverse spreads [9][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy, recommend buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [2] - For bond futures, be short - term bullish as the implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds at 2.2 is cost - effective; for the medium - to - long - term, with rising risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, suggest hedging T and TL contracts on rallies [2] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On November 4, the four major A - share stock indexes pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.41% to 3960.19 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.71% to 13175.22 points, the ChiNext Index declined 1.96% to 3134.09 points, and the STAR 50 Index decreased 0.97% to 1387.24 points. Market turnover was 19,384 billion yuan, 1,945 billion yuan less than the previous day [1] - In terms of industry sectors, banks (+2.03%), public utilities (+0.24%), and environmental protection (+0.15%) led the gains; non - ferrous metals (-3.04%), power equipment (-2.05%), and pharmaceutical biology (-1.97%) led the losses [1] - In terms of market strength, IH > IF > IM > IC, and the number of rising, flat, and falling stocks were 1,627, 165, and 3,646 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had net inflows of - 375, - 200, 175, and 400 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 287, - 67, +145, and +209 billion yuan respectively [1] - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 151.33, 116.23, 29.7, and 4.77 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 14.96%, - 11.85%, - 4.73%, and - 1.16% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 15%, 14%, 20%, and 34% respectively [1] (2) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On November 4, interest - rate bonds were basically flat. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0.01%, TF fell 0.01%, T rose 0%, and TL rose 0.03% [2] - For the current active 2512 contract, the CTD bond of the 2 - year Treasury bond futures was 250012.IB, with a yield change of +1bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.038, and an IRR of 1.75%; the CTD bond of the 5 - year Treasury bond futures was 250003.IB, with a yield change of +0.5bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.068, and an IRR of 2.01%; the CTD bond of the 10 - year Treasury bond futures was 250018.IB, with a yield change of +0.5bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.061, and an IRR of 1.95%; the CTD bond of the 30 - year Treasury bond futures was 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 0.2bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.012, and an IRR of 1.36% [2] - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 1,175 billion yuan and withdrew 4,753 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 3,578 billion yuan [2] (3) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that recently, except for the manufacturing sector, the prosperity of each sector is lower than the same period in previous years [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures and industries, including base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading strategies for each sector, considering factors such as supply and demand, inventory levels, and macroeconomic conditions. Summary by Related Catalogs Base Metals - **Copper**: Market showed weak oscillation yesterday. With a four - day increase in the US dollar index and China's manufacturing PMI under expectation, domestic weekly inventory rose by 175 tons and wire - cable operating rate declined. The trading strategy is to maintain a view of weak - upward oscillation [1]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Yesterday, the main contract's closing price rose 1.41%. Supply side saw an increase in operating capacity, while demand side had a slight decline in weekly aluminum product operating rate. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and domestic aluminum ingot destocking should be monitored [1]. - **Alumina**: Yesterday, the main contract's closing price fell 0.14%. Affected by pollution warnings, northern production capacity decreased, while electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production. The market is in surplus, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Zinc**: Yesterday, the main contract's closing price rose 0.74%. Supply side had a decline in zinc concentrate processing fees, and consumption was in the off - season. LME inventory formed a bottom support, and the Fed's hawkish stance pressured the price. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - **Lead**: Yesterday, the main contract's closing price rose 0.46%. Supply side was marginally loose, and consumption had mixed factors. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the trading strategy is range - based operation [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Monday's main contract rose. Supply side had a reduction in furnace - opening numbers in the southwest, and both social and warehouse - receipt inventories decreased slightly. Demand was supported by high - operating - rate industries. The price is expected to oscillate between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and the trading strategy is to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Yesterday, the main contract rose. Supply decreased last week, and demand was strong. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the trading strategy is to take small - position long positions and sell put options [2]. - **Polysilicon**: Monday's main contract fell. Domestic photovoltaic installation growth in Q4 is under pressure. The trading strategy is to hold previous long positions [2]. - **Tin**: Yesterday, the price oscillated weakly. Supply side was slowly recovering, and demand was based on needs. The trading strategy is to take an oscillation view in the short - term [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main contract closed at 3077 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan. Building material inventory decreased, and the supply - demand contradiction was limited. The trading strategy is to wait and see, with a reference range of 3030 - 3100 yuan/ton [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract closed at 782 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. Supply increased, and demand decreased. The trading strategy is to hold short positions, with a reference range of 760 - 790 yuan/ton [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The main contract closed at 1287.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan. Supply - side inventory was divided, and there was an expectation of production reduction. The trading strategy is to wait and see, with a reference range of 1260 - 1310 yuan/ton [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans continued to rise. Supply side had a slight US soybean reduction and a South American increase expectation. Demand side had improved export and crushing. The US soybeans are short - term strong, and domestic prices follow the cost side [5][6]. - **Corn**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices were expected to be weak due to new - crop pressure. The trading strategy is that futures prices will oscillate weakly [6]. - **Oils and Fats**: The Malaysian market was weak. Supply in Malaysia was higher than expected, and demand had a slight increase in exports. The trading strategy is that oils and fats are weak with differentiation, and the structure is suitable for reverse arbitrage [6]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract rose. Internationally, the price was expected to be weak, while domestically, it was strong. The trading strategy is to short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - **Cotton**: Overnight, US cotton prices rebounded. Internationally, production was expected to decline, and domestically, the price oscillated down. The trading strategy is to wait and see within the 13400 - 13700 yuan/ton range [6]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices were expected to oscillate strongly due to supply - demand growth. The trading strategy is that futures prices will oscillate within a range [6]. - **Pigs**: Futures prices were weak, and supply pressure remained large. The trading strategy is that futures prices will be weak [6]. - **Apples**: The main contract fell. Different regions had different situations, and the price rose due to concerns about the future market. The trading strategy is to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Yesterday, the main contract fell slightly. Supply pressure increased but at a slower pace, and demand was weakening. The short - term is expected to oscillate weakly, and long - term, it is advisable to short at high prices [8]. - **PVC**: The main contract closed at 4682 yuan/ton, down 1.1%. Supply increased, and demand had a slight recovery. The trading strategy is to short or do reverse arbitrage [8]. - **PTA and PX**: PX supply was balanced, and PTA had a slight destocking. PX is expected to be strong, and PTA should be shorted at high prices in the long - term [8][9]. - **Rubber**: Monday, the main contract oscillated widely. Raw materials were under pressure, and inventory accumulation exceeded expectations. The price is expected to find a bottom under pressure [9]. - **Glass**: The main contract closed at 1094 yuan/ton, up 0.1%. Supply - demand was weak, and the trading strategy is reverse arbitrage [9]. - **PP**: Yesterday, the main contract fell slightly. Supply increased, and demand was in the off - season. The short - term is expected to oscillate weakly, and long - term, it is advisable to short at high prices [9]. - **MEG**: Supply pressure was large, and inventory was at a low level. The trading strategy is to short at high prices [9]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices oscillated. Supply pressure was increasing, and demand was seasonally weak. The short - term is expected to oscillate, and if Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels/day, it can be shorted at high prices [10]. - **Styrene**: Yesterday, the main contract fell slightly. Supply - demand was weak, and the short - term is expected to oscillate weakly, and long - term, it is advisable to short at high prices [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract closed at 1200 yuan/ton, down 2.5%. Supply - demand was balanced, and the trading strategy is to wait and see [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, the report maintains a long - term bullish view on the economy. It is recommended to allocate long positions in forward contracts of various varieties on dips as there is a certain excess return when using stock indices as long - term substitutes [3]. - For bond futures, in the short - term, it is recommended to be bullish, as the implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds is cost - effective. In the medium - to - long - term, considering the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is suggested to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On November 3, the four major A - share stock indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55% to 3976.52 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.19% to 13404.06 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.29% to 3196.87 points, and the STAR 50 Index fell 1.04% to 1400.86 points. Market turnover was 21,329 billion yuan, a decrease of 2,169 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, media, coal, and petroleum and petrochemical led the gains, while non - ferrous metals, household appliances, and the comprehensive sector led the losses. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 89, - 133, 30, and 192 billion yuan respectively, with changes of + 157, + 59, + 26, and - 242 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Basis and Trading Strategy**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 140.12, 94, 18.6, and - 0.25 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 13.28%, - 9.16%, - 2.86%, and 0.06%, and three - year historical quantiles of 21%, 22%, 32%, and 45% respectively. The long - term trading strategy is to maintain a long position on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long positions in forward contracts of various varieties on dips [3]. 3.2 Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On November 3, interest - rate bonds were basically flat. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0.03%, TF fell 0.01%, T rose 0.01%, and TL fell 0.11% [3]. - **Cash Bond and Trading Strategy**: The current active contract is the 2512 contract. The CTD bonds, yield changes, net basis, and IRR of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year bond futures are provided. In terms of the money market, the central bank had a net withdrawal of 2,590 billion yuan. The short - term trading strategy is to be bullish, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [4]. 3.3 Economic Data High - frequency data shows that recently, except for the manufacturing sector, the prosperity of each sector is lower than the same period in previous years [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information available. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - COMEX gold prices have entered a range - bound oscillation, once falling below $3900 per ounce, and COMEX silver prices are also range - bound, falling below $46 per ounce. Multiple factors such as the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, the long - term US government shutdown, and the unresolved Russia - Ukraine conflict may cause the COMEX gold price to enter a phased range - bound oscillation after a pull - back from its high, and the silver price to enter a range - bound oscillation after a sharp drop from its high [45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Review - COMEX gold prices entered a range - bound oscillation and once fell below $3900 per ounce, while COMEX silver prices were range - bound and fell below $46 per ounce [45]. - On the early morning of October 30th, the Federal Reserve ended its monetary policy meeting and announced a 25 - basis - point cut in the federal funds rate target range to between 3.75% and 4.00%, meeting market expectations [45]. - On the morning of October 30th, the Chinese and US presidents met in Busan, South Korea, to discuss bilateral economic and trade relations. The bilateral economic and trade relations tend to ease, sending a positive signal to the global economy [45]. Short - Term Outlook - Sino - US economic and trade relations are temporarily easing [45]. - The long - term US government shutdown is dragging down the US economy, especially the employment market, and the Federal Reserve may turn dovish [45]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is unlikely to ease within the year [45]. Price and Ratio - Gold and silver prices are both oscillating, the gold - silver ratio is decreasing, the gold - oil ratio has stabilized after a decline, and the copper - gold ratio is decreasing [7]. Position - Domestic gold futures positions have slightly decreased, and domestic silver futures positions have slightly increased [13]. Exchange Rate and Interest Rate - The report presents the exchange rate and interest rate spreads between the US and Europe, the US and the UK, and the US and Japan, as well as the comparison of US Treasury bond spreads with overseas and exchange rate changes [16][17][18]. Inventory - The inventory data of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX are presented, but specific trends are not clearly described [27]. ETF - Gold ETFs have slightly increased, and silver ETFs have slightly decreased [29][32]. CFTC Net Long Position - The net long positions of COMEX gold and silver management funds are presented [35][38]. Central Bank Gold Reserve - The global major central bank gold reserves and their growth rates are presented [40]. Basis - The gold TD - SHFE basis and silver basis data from 2022 to 2025 are presented [42][43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the index may enter a volatile trend due to the unclear macro - drivers after the earnings season. In the long - term, it is advisable to maintain a long - position on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties at low prices [2] - For the short - term, the trading strategy for bonds is bullish, as the implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds is cost - effective. For the medium - and long - term, considering the rising risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is suggested to hedge T and TL contracts at high prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On October 31, the four major A - share stock indexes adjusted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.81% to 3954.79 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.14% to 13378.21 points, the ChiNext Index declined 2.31% to 3187.53 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index decreased 3.13% to 1415.53 points. The market turnover was 2349.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 114.5 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - In terms of industry sectors, pharmaceutical biology (+2.42%), media (+2.39%), and commercial retail (+2.08%) led the gains, while communication (-4.07%), electronics (-3.06%), and non - ferrous metals (-2.03%) led the losses [1] - From the perspective of market strength, IM>IC>IH>IF. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 3759, 131, and 1548 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 24.6 billion, - 19.1 billion, 0.4 billion, and 43.3 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +22.1 billion, +10.8 billion, - 22.3 billion, and - 10.5 billion yuan respectively [1] - The basis and basis annualized yields of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts were 138.47, 88.6, 9.27, - 3.65 points and - 12.81%, - 8.39%, - 1.39%, 0.84% respectively, and their three - year historical quantiles were 24%, 25%, 45%, and 56% respectively [2] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On October 31, the short - term interest rates of interest - rate bonds decreased while the long - term ones increased. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0.02%, TF dropped 0.01%, T rose 0.04%, and TL rose 0.42% [2] - For the current active 2512 contract, the CTD bond of the 2 - year Treasury bond futures was 250012.IB, with a yield change of - 0.5bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.038, and an IRR of 1.76%. For the 5 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 250003.IB, with a yield change of +0.45bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.057, and an IRR of 1.9%. For the 10 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 220019.IB, with a yield change of - 0.5bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.023, and an IRR of 1.65%. For the 30 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 2.25bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.279, and an IRR of 3.14% [3] - In terms of the money market, the central bank's currency injection was 355.1 billion yuan, currency withdrawal was 168 billion yuan, and the net injection was 187.1 billion yuan [3] 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that recently, except for the manufacturing sector, the prosperity of each sector is lower than the same period in previous years [9]