期货研究报告 | 商品研究 美国7月非农低于预期，降息预期攀升 2025年08月03日 ——贵金属周度报告 2025年07月28日-2025年08月01日 • 招商期货 徐世伟 • xushiwei@cmschina.com.cn • 执业资格：F03076217 • 投资咨询：Z0001836 中美金银价格比较 估值：黄金依旧高估 -100% -50% 0% 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 金油比 金油比 金油相关性 -150% -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Oct/09 Oct/10 Oct/11 Oct/12 Oct/13 Oct/14 Oct/15 Oct/16 Oct/17 Oct/18 Oct/19 Oct/20 Oct/21 Oct/22 Oct/23 Oct/24 黄金与真实利率相关性 伦敦金价 黄金与真实利率相关性 -50% -25% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2 3 4 铜金比 铜金比 铜金相关性 -150% -100% -50% 0% ...

招商评论 贵 金 市场表现：周五贵金属全线反弹，以伦敦金计价的国际金价涨 2.32%，收于 3362 美元/盎司，以伦敦银计价 的国际银价涨 0.9%，收于 37.02 美元/盎司。 属 基本面：美国 7 月非农新增就业 7.3 万远低于预期，前两月数据大幅下修 25.8 万；非农数据后，纽约联储威 廉姆斯和克利夫兰联储哈玛克将此次疲软描述为温和降温而非令人担忧的恶化。非农数据前，理事沃勒和鲍 曼罕见发表声明为投反对票辩护，称继续等待将威胁经济；美联储理事库格勒宣布将于 8 月 8 日辞职；美国 贸易代表格里尔表示，美国总统特朗普上周对多国加征的新一轮关税"基本已定"，不会在当前谈判中作出调 整，包括对从加拿大进口的商品征收 35%关税、对巴西征收 50%关税、对印度征收 25%关税、对瑞士征收 39%关税。国内黄金 ETF 前一交易日流出，COMEX 黄金库存 1202 吨，增加 5 吨；上期所黄金库存 35 吨， 增加 2 吨；伦敦 6 月黄金库存 8774 吨；上期所白银库存 1183 吨，减少 24 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存 1326 吨，增加 7 吨，COMEX 白银库存 15714 吨，增加 3 ...

2025年08月01日 星期五 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 市场表现：周四贵金属涨跌互现，以伦敦金计价的国际金价涨 0.42%，收于 3289 美元/盎司，以伦敦银计价 的国际银价跌 1.18%，收于 36.69 美元/盎司。 属 基本面：美国将对柬埔寨、泰国、马来西亚、印尼商品征收 19%的关税，将对越南商品征收 20%关税；特朗 普称美墨关税协议将延长 90 天；美国 6 月核心 PCE 物价指数同比 2.8%，创 4 个月新高；日本央行维持利率 不变，上调今明两年通胀预期。国内黄金 ETF 前一交易日流出，COMEX 黄金库存 1197 吨，增加 10 吨；上 期所黄金库存 35 吨，增加 2 吨；伦敦 6 月黄金库存 8774 吨；上期所白银库存 1208 吨，基本维持不变，金 交所白银库存上周库存 1326 吨，增加 7 吨，COMEX 白银库存 15686 吨，增加 63 吨；伦敦 6 月白银库存增 加 421 吨至 23788 吨；印度 6 月白银进口约 200 吨左右。全球最大白银 etf--iShares 持有量为 15062 吨，减 少 87 吨。 交易策略：去美 ...

金融研究 2025年7月31日 星期四 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：7 月 30 日，A 股四大股指冲高回落，其中上证指数上涨 0.17%，报收 3615.72 点；深成 指下跌 0.77%，报收 11203.03 点；创业板指下跌 1.62%，报收 2367.68 点；科创 50 指数下跌 1.11%， 报收 1058.57 点。市场成交 18,710 亿元，较前日增加 417 亿元。行业板块方面，钢铁(+2.05%)，石 油石化(+1.84%)，传媒(+1%)涨幅居前；电力设备(-2.22%)，计算机(-1.59%)，汽车(-1.27%)跌幅居 前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,712/146/3,557。沪深两市，机构、主力、 大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-253、-276、85、444 亿元，分别变动-116、-140、+53、+204 亿 元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 114.28、99.29、14.84 与-0.65 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-11.19%、-10.34%、-2.35%与 0.15%，三年期历 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market conditions of various commodities are complex and affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and macro - economic situations. Different trading strategies are recommended for different commodities based on their specific fundamentals and market performances [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories 3.1 Basic Metals - **Copper**: Market showed copper prices fluctuated weakly yesterday, with a nearly 20% drop due to a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper. Fundamentally, strong US employment data, a hawkish Fed, and a stronger dollar pressured metals. Short - term, the strong dollar pressures metals; mid - term, a buy - on - dips strategy is maintained [1]. - **Aluminum**: The 2509 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed up 0.10% yesterday. Supply is increasing as plants operate at high loads, while demand is in the traditional off - season with a slight decline in the开工 rate of aluminum products. Aluminum prices have limited upside and are expected to oscillate; it's recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract of alumina closed up 0.57% yesterday. Supply capacity is increasing, and demand from electrolytic aluminum plants is stable. It's in a multi - empty game stage; it's advised to wait for clearer signals and stay on the sidelines [1]. - **Zinc**: The 2508 contract of zinc closed up 0.11% yesterday. Supply pressure continues as port inventories of concentrates decrease but import TC jumps and refinery profits are high. Consumption is weak in the off - season, and there is a risk of a squeeze. A sell - on - rallies strategy is recommended [1]. - **Lead**: The 2508 contract of lead closed down 0.06% yesterday. Supply is restricted by refinery maintenance and slow restart of recycled lead production. Consumption shows some resilience but at a low level. Inventory is increasing, and spot liquidity is tightening. A range - bound operation with short - term long positions on pullbacks is suggested [1][2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The 09 contract closed down. Supply is increasing with复产 plans in the northwest and Xinjiang. Demand is mixed, with stable polysilicon开工, a decline in organic silicon output, and a slowdown in aluminum alloy demand. The market is expected to oscillate widely; it's recommended to wait and see and monitor复产 plans [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2509 contract closed up. Supply is decreasing slightly, and demand is expected to improve marginally. Inventories are at a record high. Due to the retreat of anti - involution trading, prices are expected to correct in the short term with increased volatility; caution is advised [2]. - **Polysilicon**: The 09 contract closed up. Supply is increasing slightly, and demand is weak with a decline in silicon wafer and battery cell production and a pessimistic outlook for photovoltaic installations. The market is expected to oscillate widely between 48,000 - 53,000 yuan; it's recommended to wait and see and watch for policy and warehouse receipt changes [2]. - **Tin**: Tin prices continued to fluctuate weakly. Strong US data, a hawkish Fed, and a stronger dollar pressured metals. Supply and demand are both weak. A range - bound trading approach is recommended [2]. 3.2 Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract of rebar closed down. Supply and demand are relatively balanced but structurally differentiated. Futures are slightly over - valued. A short - term short - selling strategy is recommended [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract of iron ore closed down. Supply and demand are neutral to strong. Futures are fairly valued. It's recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract of coking coal closed down. Supply and demand are generally loose but improving. Futures are over - valued. It's recommended to wait and see [3]. 3.3 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans continued to fall. Supply is abundant both in the near and long term, and demand for US soybeans is weak due to tariffs. US soybeans are expected to be weak in the short term; domestic soybeans may follow international cost trends in the medium term. Monitor weather and tariff policies [4]. - **Corn**: The 2509 contract of corn oscillated narrowly. Supply is tight with less remaining grain, but substitute products and imports affect prices. Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract of sugar closed down. Indian sugar exports pressured the market, while domestic prices rebounded due to positive sentiment. Futures are expected to oscillate weakly; a short - selling strategy in the futures market and selling call options are recommended [5]. - **Cotton**: US cotton futures fell, and Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated down. International tariff policies and domestic industrial losses affected the market. It's recommended to wait and see and trade within the 13,600 - 14,000 yuan range [5]. - **Log**: The 09 contract of log closed down. Market activity increased in trading volume and open interest, but spot prices were stable. It's recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil continued to rise. Supply is in the seasonal growth period, and demand for exports is weak. Short - term, it's in a weak cycle; medium - term, it's recommended to be long - biased [5]. - **Egg**: The 2509 contract of egg was weak. High temperatures reduced supply, and demand may increase seasonally, but high cold - storage egg inventories will limit price increases. Futures prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - **Live Pig**: The 2509 contract of live pig was weak. Consumption is seasonally weak, and supply pressure is high. Pig prices are expected to decline in the medium term. Monitor the slaughter rhythm and secondary fattening [6]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE contract fell slightly. Supply is increasing domestically but may decrease in imports. Demand is improving in some areas. Short - term, it will oscillate; long - term, a short - selling strategy on far - month contracts is recommended [7]. - **PVC**: The V09 contract of PVC closed down. Supply is expected to increase, and inventories are rising. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [7]. - **Rubber**: The RU2509 contract of rubber closed down. Raw material prices are falling, and inventories are increasing. It's expected to oscillate widely; it's recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Glass**: The FG09 contract of glass closed down. Supply may increase, and inventories are falling. A buy - on - dips strategy is recommended [7]. - **PP**: The PP contract fell slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is differentiated. Short - term, it will oscillate weakly; long - term, a short - selling strategy on far - month contracts is recommended [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices rose sharply. Supply may be disrupted due to potential sanctions, and demand is mixed. It's recommended to wait and see due to uncertainty [8]. - **Styrene**: The EB contract oscillated slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Short - term, it will oscillate weakly; long - term, a short - selling strategy on far - month contracts is recommended [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa09 contract of soda ash closed down. Supply is stable, and inventories are decreasing. It's recommended to wait and see or try short - selling options [9].

Report Overview - The report is a financial futures morning briefing released by China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. on July 30, 2025, covering A-share market performance, stock index futures, treasury bond futures, and economic data [1][2] Market Performance A-share Market - On July 29, the four major A-share stock indices rose across the board, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.33% to 3,609.71 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.64% to 11,289.41 points, the ChiNext Index up 1.86% to 2,406.59 points, and the STAR 50 Index up 1.45% to 1,070.45 points [2] - Market turnover was 1.8293 trillion yuan, an increase of 63.2 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, communication (+3.29%), steel (+2.59%), and pharmaceutical biology (+2.06%) led the gains, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-1.36%), banking (-1.19%), and beauty care (-0.71%) led the losses [2] - In terms of market strength, IM > IC > IF > IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2,240/176/2,999 respectively [2] - In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of -13.7 billion, -13.5 billion, 3.2 billion, and 24 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -10.9 billion, -5.1 billion, +1.6 billion, and +14.3 billion yuan respectively [2] Stock Index Futures - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 111.88, 93.13, 10.62, and -5.41 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of -10.59%, -9.39%, -1.64%, and 1.23% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 33%, 16%, 42%, and 61% respectively [3] - The trading strategy is to maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy and recommend buying forward contracts of each variety on dips [3] Treasury Bond Futures - On July 29, the yields of treasury bond futures rose. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.441, up 4.12 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.612, up 4.11 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.712, up 4.27 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 2.057, up 4.31 bps [3] - For the current active contract 2509, the CTD bond of the two - year treasury bond futures was 250006.IB, with a yield change of +2.75 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.012, and an IRR of 1.47%; the CTD bond of the five - year treasury bond futures was 240020.IB, with a yield change of +4.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.014, and an IRR of 1.46%; the CTD bond of the ten - year treasury bond futures was 220010.IB, with a yield change of +4 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.024, and an IRR of 1.38%; the CTD bond of the thirty - year treasury bond futures was 210005.IB, with a yield change of +4.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.121, and an IRR of 0.89% [3] - The trading strategy is to recommend hedging T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium - to - long term due to rising risk appetite and economic recovery expectations [4] Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the manufacturing industry's prosperity has recovered recently, with industrial added value in June exceeding the same period [10] - Short - term capital interest rates have changed. For example, SHIBOR overnight is at 1.37, down from 1.47 the previous day; DR001 is at 1.36, down from 1.46 the previous day [10]

2025年07月30日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 市场表现：周二贵金属价格反弹。 基本金属 招商评论 铜 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏强。 基本面：昨日市场认为欧洲签下不平等条约，美元兑欧元大幅走强，美债拍卖良好，美债收益率大幅走弱， 中美将继续推动已暂停的美方对等关税 24%部分以及中方反制措施如期展期 90 天。美国职位空缺不及预期。 反内卷情绪再度回归，商品整体偏强。华东华南平水铜升水 90 元和贴水 30 元成交。精废价差处于 900 元附 近低位。 交易策略：维持逢低买入思路。 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 铝 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2509 合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.05%，收于 20605 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 80 元/吨， LME 价格 2611.5 美元/吨。 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，周度运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，传统消费淡季，周度铝 材开工率小幅下降。 交易策略：在传统消费淡季下，铝材开工率和出口下降，叠加铝锭库存回升、下游高位接盘意愿不足，铝价 上行空间有限，价格或维持震荡，建议观望。 风险提示：海内外宏观政策变化。 氧 ...

2025年07月27日 • 研究员-马芸 • mayun@cmschina.com.cn • 联系电话：18682466799 • 资格证号： Z0018708 目录 01 周度回顾 本周观点 02 期货研究报告 | 商品研究 金属短期承压不改上行方向 ——20250727招商期货基本金属铜锡周报 品种分析：铜锡 03 2 01 周度回顾 3 周度回顾 | | | 伦铜指数 | 伦铝指数 | 伦锌指数 | 伦铅指数 | 伦镍指数 | 伦锡指数 | | 沪铜指数 | 沪铝指数 | | 沪锌指数 | 沪铅指数 | 沪镍指数 | 沪锡指数 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 过去一年 | | 8.5% | 17.1% | 7.2% | -2.0% | -4.1% | 16.1% | 过去一年 | 7.3% | 7.7% | | -0.1% | -6.1% | -5.1% | 8.8% | | 过去一月 | | 0.7% | 2.5% | 4.4% | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. It is recommended to allocate long positions in various forward contracts on dips as stock index long - position substitution has certain excess returns [3]. - With the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to conduct high - level hedging for medium - and long - term T and TL contracts [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On July 28, A - share four major stock indexes all rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.12% to 3597.94 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.44% to 11217.58 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.96% to 2362.6 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.09% to 1055.11 points. Market turnover was 17,662 billion yuan, a decrease of 493 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, national defense and military industry (+1.86%), non - bank finance (+1.51%), and pharmaceutical biology (+1.47%) led the gains; coal (-2.6%), steel (-1.41%), and transportation (-1.38%) led the losses [2]. - From the perspective of market strength, IC>IM>IH>IF. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 2,781, 197, and 2,436 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had net capital inflows of - 28 billion, - 85 billion, 16 billion, and 97 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +116 billion, +81 billion, - 16 billion, and - 181 billion yuan respectively [2]. - For stock index futures, the basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 127.98, 101.42, 13.82, and - 3.03 points respectively. The annualized basis yields were - 11.89%, - 10.02%, - 2.09%, and 0.68% respectively, and the three - year historical quantiles were 26%, 14%, 38%, and 53% respectively [2]. (2) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On July 28, the yields of treasury bond futures declined. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.402, down 2.53 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.57, down 3.26 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.668, down 3.09 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 2.014, down 3.21 bps [3]. - For the current active 2509 contract, the CTD bond of the 2 - year treasury bond futures was 250006.IB, with a yield change of - 1.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0, and an IRR of 1.58%; the 5 - year was 240020.IB, with a yield change of - 2.5 bps, a net basis of 0.023, and an IRR of 1.42%; the 10 - year was 250007.IB, with a yield change of - 1.75 bps, a net basis of 0.026, and an IRR of 1.39%; the 30 - year was 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 2.25 bps, a net basis of 0.068, and an IRR of 1.2% [3]. - In terms of the money supply, the central bank injected 4,958 billion yuan and withdrew 1,707 billion yuan in the open market, with a net injection of 3,251 billion yuan [4]. (3) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the manufacturing industry's prosperity has recovered recently, with the industrial added value in June exceeding the same period [12]. - Based on the domestic medium - term data tracking chart, positive scores represent an improvement in prosperity, negative scores represent a weakening of prosperity, and zero scores represent little change in prosperity [14][15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, suggesting going long on gold; due to the strong US economy and industrial silver's long - term downward trend, it is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies [1]. - For aluminum, although industry policies are favorable, the price increase is limited in the off - season, and the price may fluctuate, so it is advisable to wait and see [2]. - Alumina's operating capacity is increasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly, so it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - For zinc, due to supply pressure and weak consumption in the off - season, it is recommended to short on rallies [2][3]. - For lead, it is recommended to operate within a range and go short - term long on pullbacks [3]. - For industrial silicon, the market may turn to wide - range fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - For lithium carbonate, the price is expected to fluctuate widely between 65,000 - 80,000, and it is recommended to participate cautiously [3]. - For polysilicon, the market may fluctuate widely between 48,000 - 53,000, and it is advisable to wait and see [3][4]. - For steel products, it is recommended to take profits on long positions and short the RB2601 contract for aggressive investors [4]. - For iron ore, it is advisable to wait and see and take profits on long positions [4]. - For coking coal, it is advisable to wait and see and exit long positions [4]. - For soybean meal, the US soybeans are in a volatile range, and it is necessary to focus on Sino - US economic and trade talks,产区 weather, and tariff policies [5]. - For corn, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. - For sugar, it is recommended to short on rallies in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - For cotton, it is advisable to wait and see and adopt a range - trading strategy between 13,800 - 14,400 [6]. - For logs, it is advisable to wait and see [6]. - For palm oil, it is short - term strong, and it is recommended to allocate more in the sector, focusing on产区 production and biodiesel policies [6]. - For eggs, the futures price is expected to fluctuate [6][7]. - For live pigs, the futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [7]. - For LLDPE, it may fluctuate in the short term and is recommended to short on rallies in the long - term [8]. - For PVC, it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - For PTA, it is recommended to take profits on PX and short on rallies for PTA [8]. - For rubber, it is expected to fluctuate in a range, and it is advisable to wait and see [9]. - For glass, it is recommended to go long on dips [9]. - For PP, it may fluctuate weakly in the short term and is recommended to short on rallies in the long - term [9]. - For MEG, it is recommended to short when the supply - demand is weak [9]. - For crude oil, due to the uncertainty of US sanctions on Russia, it is advisable to wait and see [9][10]. - For styrene, it may fluctuate weakly in the short term and is recommended to short on rallies in the long - term [10]. - For soda ash, it is recommended to wait and see or try short - selling call options [10]. 3. Summaries According to Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, precious metal prices weakened, with both gold and silver falling. The US dollar index rose by more than 1% during the session [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The EU - US trade agreement is seen as beneficial to the US, the US Treasury plans to borrow nearly $1.01 trillion in the third quarter, and the auction of 5 - year US Treasury bonds was unexpectedly weak. Gold ETFs in China had outflows, and inventories of gold and silver in various exchanges increased [1]. - **Trading Strategies**: Long on gold and short - sell on rallies for precious metals [1]. Base Metals Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2509 contract decreased by 0.70% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintain high - load production, but the off - season leads to a slight decline in the operating rate of aluminum products [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see due to limited price increase space [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 5.40% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina is increasing, and electrolytic aluminum smelters maintain high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see as the price may fluctuate weakly [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the zinc 2508 contract decreased by 1.01% compared to the previous trading day, and the social inventory increased [2][3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure persists, and consumption is weak in the off - season, with an increasing risk of a short squeeze [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short on rallies [3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the lead 2508 contract decreased by 0.27% compared to the previous trading day, and the social inventory increased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is tight in some areas, and consumption has low - level resilience, with tightened spot liquidity [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Operate within a range and go short - term long on pullbacks [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main contract closed at the limit - down price, with a decrease in positions and an increase in warehouse receipts [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased last week, and demand was mixed [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see as the market may fluctuate widely [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract decreased by 7.98%, with capital outflows [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased slightly, demand improved marginally, and inventory reached a new high [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Participate cautiously as the price may fluctuate widely [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main contract decreased, with a decrease in positions and stable warehouse receipts [3][4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased slightly, and demand was weak [3][4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see as the market may fluctuate widely [3][4]. Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The main contract of rebar fluctuated sideways [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Building material inventory increased slightly, and the overall supply - demand of steel products was balanced with structural differentiation [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Take profits on long positions and short the RB2601 contract for aggressive investors [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main contract of iron ore fluctuated sideways [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, demand was stable, and the supply - demand was neutral to strong [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see and take profits on long positions [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main contract of coking coal fell to the limit and continued to decline at night [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - demand was relatively loose but improving, and the futures was over - valued [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see and exit long positions [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans fell [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was loose both in the near - term and long - term, and demand was uncertain [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Focus on Sino - US economic and trade talks, and follow the international cost in the medium - term [5]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract was weak, and the spot price fluctuated [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was tight, but substitutes and imports affected the price [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: The futures price may fluctuate weakly [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The 09 contract rose slightly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: International supply pressure and domestic macro - sentiment affected the price [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short on rallies in the futures market and sell call options [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: US cotton futures were weak, and domestic cotton futures were strong [6]. - **Fundamentals**: International supply and demand and domestic downstream conditions were mixed [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see and trade within a range [6]. Logs - **Market Performance**: The 09 contract rose slightly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Market activity increased, but the price was mainly affected by macro - factors [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see [6]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil fell [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased seasonally, and demand decreased [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Strong in the short - term, allocate more in the sector [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract and the spot price fell [6][7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased, and demand may increase seasonally, but cold - storage eggs limited the increase [6][7]. - **Trading Strategies**: The futures price may fluctuate [6][7]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract and the spot price fell [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Consumption was weak seasonally, and supply pressure increased [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: The futures price may fluctuate and adjust [7]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main contract fell slightly, and the import window was closed [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, and demand improved slightly in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Fluctuate in the short - term, short on rallies in the long - term [8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V09 contract fell by 1.4% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply will increase, and inventory accumulated [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see [8]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PX and PTA prices were at certain levels, and the spot basis was - 7 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure was high, and polyester demand was weak [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Take profits on PX and short on rallies for PTA [8]. Rubber - **Market Performance**: The main contract fell by 2.52% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Inventory increased, and downstream factories replenished stocks [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: Fluctuate in a range, wait and see [9]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The fg09 contract fell by 5% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply may increase, inventory decreased, and demand improved [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go long on dips [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main contract fell slightly, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, and demand was differentiated [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: Fluctuate weakly in the short - term, short on rallies in the long - term [9]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The spot price and basis were at certain levels [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was high, and demand was weak [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short when the supply - demand is weak [9]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The price rose sharply due to supply risks [9][10]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC's decision was pending, and US demand was mixed [9][10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see due to sanction uncertainties [9][10]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main contract fell slightly, and the import window was closed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply may increase, and demand was under pressure [10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Fluctuate weakly in the short - term, short on rallies in the long - term [10]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The 09 contract fell by 4% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased slightly, inventory was redistributed, and demand was uncertain [10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see or short - sell call options [10].