1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The gold market shows strength with the Fed's expected rate - cut, suggesting a long - position for gold and a wait - and - see approach for silver [1]. - For base metals, different strategies are recommended for each metal based on their market performance, fundamentals, such as buying copper on dips, expecting aluminum to oscillate in the short - term, and predicting alumina to decline with oscillations [2]. - In the black industry, a wait - and - see approach is generally recommended, with attempts to short certain contracts like螺纹2605 and焦煤09 [5]. - In the agricultural products market, various trading strategies are proposed according to the supply - demand situation of different products, such as trading South American soybean bumper harvest expectations and weak exports for soybeans, and shorting sugar futures [6]. - For energy and chemical products, different trading strategies are given based on the supply - demand balance, including short - term oscillations and long - term improvement for some products, and short - selling for others [7][8]. 3. Summary by Category Gold and Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: International gold prices broke through and strengthened, standing above $4400 per ounce, and domestic gold prices exceeded 1000 yuan. Silver inventories showed different trends in different markets [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Fed officials' statements, geopolitical events, and inventory changes in gold and silver affected the market. For example, the Fed may not cut rates until next spring, and there were changes in gold and silver inventories in different exchanges and ETFs [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long gold and wait - and - see for silver [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices oscillated [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The implementation time of US refined copper tariffs may be postponed, and the supply of copper mines remained tight [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.16% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect aluminum prices to oscillate in the short - term within the current high - level range [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 0.08% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Alumina plants' operating capacity remained stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect alumina prices to decline with oscillations [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the沪锌2601 contract increased by 0.09% compared to the previous trading day, and social inventories increased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: LME zinc inventories increased significantly, and the consumption off - season deepened [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rallies [3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the沪铅2601 contract increased by 0.27% compared to the previous trading day, and social inventories decreased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of primary lead recovered after maintenance, while the supply of recycled lead decreased significantly. The lead battery start - up rate decreased slightly [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a range, with a focus on long - positions at low prices [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract decreased by 1.09% compared to the previous trading day, and the position increased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of open furnaces decreased, and social inventories decreased. The demand from related industries remained stable [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate weakly in the range of 8000 - 9000, and adopt a wait - and - see approach [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 increased by 2.7% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The price of Australian lithium concentrate increased, production increased, and demand decreased in some sectors. December saw inventory reduction [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect short - term price increase with oscillations [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract decreased by 2.32% compared to the previous trading day, and the position decreased [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply remained stable, demand decreased, and inventories increased slightly [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider long - positions on dips after the price returns to the spot trading range [4]. Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The螺纹2605 contract increased by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills continued to make losses, production might decline marginally, and the futures were at a large discount [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and attempt to short螺纹2605 [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The铁矿2605 contract decreased by 1.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Iron ore supply and demand were weak, and the port inventory increased [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The焦煤2605 contract increased by 19 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Coking coal supply and demand were weak, and the futures were at a premium [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and attempt to short焦煤09 [5]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The CBOT soybean rebounded overnight [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Global soybean supply - demand is expected to be loose, with strong US soybean crushing and slow exports [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade South American soybean bumper harvest expectations and weak exports, and the domestic market is driven down by cost in the short - term [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices are weak, and spot prices slightly declined [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress slowed down, and downstream demand decreased [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market rose in the short - term [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is in seasonal decline but with year - on - year growth, and demand shows an increase in exports [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats may enter an oscillation phase with product differentiation [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The郑糖05 contract increased by 0.41% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: International sugar prices rebounded slightly, and the domestic market followed with a smaller increase. The long - term global sugar production is expected to increase [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short sugar futures and sell call options [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices are weak, and spot prices increased [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of laying hens decreased, and demand is affected by price changes [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices oscillate, and spot prices show a north - up and south - down pattern [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is still abundant, and demand is expected to increase seasonally [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Energy and Chemical Products LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE main contract continued to decline slightly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure eases, and demand weakens in the agricultural film sector [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for far - month contracts [7]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 decreased by 1.7% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increases, demand weakens, and inventory is at a high level [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell or use reverse spreads [7]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PX and PTA prices are at certain levels with a specific basis [7]. - **Fundamentals**: PX supply is high, and PTA has short - term supply decline and medium - term inventory accumulation pressure [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long - position PX in the medium - term and look for opportunities to long PTA processing margins in 05 [7]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 decreased by 1.5% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Glass prices decline, and inventory accumulates. Supply and demand are both weak [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Use reverse spreads [7]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP main contract continued to decline slightly [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increases, demand weakens, and the export window opens [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for far - month contracts [8]. MEG - **Market Performance**: MEG has a certain spot price and basis [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is high, inventory accumulates, and demand weakens in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Take profit in the short - term and look for inventory reduction opportunities in the medium - term for 05 [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices rose due to short - term supply reduction [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is large, and demand is in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell crude oil on rallies [8]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract rebounded slightly [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is weak in the short - term, and demand is in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for styrene and related spreads in the second quarter [8]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 decreased by 0.8% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increases with new device production, and demand from photovoltaic glass is weak with high inventory [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Use reverse spreads [9].

金融研究 2025年12月22日 星期一 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：12 月 19 日，A 股四大股指反弹，其中上证指数上涨 0.36%，报收 3890.45 点；深成指 上涨 0.66%，报收 13140.21 点；创业板指上涨 0.49%，报收 3122.24 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.2%， 报收 1308.59 点。市场成交 17,487 亿元，较前日增加 719 亿元。行业板块方面，商贸零售(+3.66%)， 综合(+2.22%)，轻工制造(+2.17%)涨幅居前；银行(-0.44%)，电子(-0.29%)，煤炭(-0.29%)跌幅居前。 从市场强弱看，IC>IM>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,476/79/901。沪深两市，机构、主力、大户、 散户全天资金分别净流入 55、-100、-123、167 亿元，分别变动+168、+79、-124、-123 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 44.21、26.95、16.18 与-2.46 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-7.94%、-4.95%、-4.66%与 1.08%，三年期历史分位数分 ...

2025年12月22日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：周五国际金价高位震荡，国际银价站上 67 美元。 | | 金 | 基本面：纽约联储行长威廉姆斯表示没有进一步降息的紧迫性，11 月 CPI 数据存在一定失真；日本央行 9：0 | | 属 | 全票通过，如期加息 25 基点，若经济和物价前景实现将继续加息；美国在委内瑞拉附近水域拦截第三艘油轮； | | | 法国预算案谈判破裂，30 年期法债收益率创 2009 年来新高；美联储主席遴选进程仍在持续。目前候选名单 | | | 已缩小至四人：白宫经济顾问哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）、前美联储理事沃什（Kevin Warsh）、美联储理事沃勒， | | | 以及贝莱德的固定收益首席投资官里德尔（Rick Rieder）。国内黄金 ETF 小幅流出，COMEX 黄金库存为 1119.8 | | | 吨，-2 吨； | | | 上期所黄金库存为 91.7 吨，维持不变，SPDR 黄金 ETF 持仓为 1052.5 吨，维持不变；COMEX 白银库存为 | | | ...

金融研究 2025年12月19日 星期五 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：12 月 18 日，A 股四大股指多数下跌，其中上证指数上涨 0.16%，报收 3876.37 点；深 成指下跌 1.29%，报收 13053.97 点；创业板指下跌 2.17%，报收 3107.06 点；科创 50 指数下跌 1.46%， 报收 1305.97 点。市场成交 16,768 亿元，较前日减少 1,576 亿元。行业板块方面，银行(+1.97%)， 煤炭(+1.89%)，石油石化(+1.25%)涨幅居前；电力设备(-2.22%)，通信(-1.58%)，电子(-1.51%)跌幅 居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IM>IC>IF，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,843/199/2,413。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-113、-179、1、290 亿元，分别变动-160、-64、+147、+77 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 59.4、31.04、21.59 与 9.32 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-10.21%、-5.46%、-5.93%与-3.88%，三年期历 ...

2025年12月19日 星期五 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 市场表现：周一贵金属价格继续高位震荡。 金 属 基本面：美国通胀超预期放缓，11 月核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.6%，创 2021 年以来最低。美联储主席最热人选哈 塞特称 CPI 报告好得令人震惊，美联储有很大空间可以降息；美国上周首申人数回落至 22.4 万人，扭转此前 激增趋势；英国央行"鹰派"降息 25 个基点，5 比 4 惊险过关，称进一步判断宽松将更艰难；德国上调明年 发债规模至 5120 亿欧元，为基建和国防输血；欧央行连续第四次按兵不动，重申通胀将在中期回归 2%目标， 未释放明确宽松指引。拉加德暗示欧央行不急行动。国内黄金 ETF 小幅流出，COMEX 黄金库存为 1121.8 吨， +2.5 吨；上期所黄金库存为 91.7 吨，维持不变；黄金 ETF 持仓为 1052.5 吨，维持不变；伦敦 11 月黄金库 存 8906 吨，+48 吨；COMEX 白银库存为 14093.8 吨，+7 吨；上期所白银库存为 912 吨，+0.2 吨；金交所 上周库存 714.4，+21 吨，iShares 白银 ...

金融研究 2025年12月18日 星期四 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨跌幅% | 现价 | 涨跌 | 成交量 | 成交额 | 持仓量 | 日增仓量 | 结算价 | 基差 | 基差年化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | | | | 收益率% | | IC2512 | 中证 2512 | 2.02 | 7146.8 | 141.4 | 75907 | 10740836 | 56653 | -18652 | 7151.8 | -9.0 | 10.5 | | IC2601 | 中证 2601 | 2.25 | 7107.8 | 156.4 | 29360 | 4125282 | 50281 | 10713 | 7101.6 | 30.0 | -5.0 | | IC2603 | 中证 2603 | 2.37 | 6996.0 | 161.8 | 63450 | 8780585 | 121840 | 8807 | 6992.2 | 141 ...

敬请阅读末页的重要说明 期货研究 | | 至 1.31 万吨；再生铅开工率因原料到货不佳下滑至 45.4%，成品库存止跌回升。需求端，铅蓄电池开工率微 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 升至 74.64%，汽车蓄电池更换需求因天气转冷而向好，但企业采购多维持刚需。库存方面，五地铅锭社会库 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 存略降至 2.05 万吨，但沪铅 2512 合约临近交割，存在交仓导致显性库存累积的可能。价格方面，伦铅受 LME | | | | | | | | | | | | | 高贴水拖累重心下移，国内现货流通货源预计收紧，对价格形成一定支撑。原料端，铅精矿市场成交清淡， | | | | | | | | | | | | | 加工费持稳，银价高企对成本构成支撑。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 交易策略：区间操作，高抛低吸。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 风险提示：1. 交割后库存 ...

2025年12月17日 星期三 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：12 月 16 日，A 股四大股指有所回调，其中上证指数下跌 1.11%，报收 3824.81 点；深成 指下跌 1.51%，报收 12914.67 点；创业板指下跌 2.1%，报收 3071.76 点；科创 50 指数下跌 1.94%， 报收 1293.38 点。市场成交 17,481 亿元，较前日减少 463 亿元。行业板块方面，商贸零售(+1.32%)， 美容护理(+0.66%)，社会服务(+0.13%)涨幅居前；通信(-2.95%)，综合(-2.81%)，有色金属(-2.81%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,090/66/4,299。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-269、-252、81、439 亿元，分别变动-101、-60、+43、+117 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 64.22、41.92、17.55 与 9.19 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-10.16%、-6.8%、-4.44%与-3.53%，三年期历史分位数 ...

2025年12月17日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：昨日贵金属价格震荡，国际金价基本收平。 基本面：11 月美非农数据 6.4w，好于预期，但是失业率飙升至 4.6%；美联储内部分歧严重，纽约联储总裁 威廉姆斯表示，美联储上周降息使其处于应对未来挑战的良好位置，并补充说，他认为随着就业市场降温， 通胀将会回落；费城联储主席表示通胀不再是最大敌人，就业下行风险更值得担忧，暗示支持降息；芝加哥 联储主席解释反对降息，表示应等待更多通胀数据；堪萨斯城联储主席解释反对降息理由是通胀过高。国内 黄金 ETF 小幅流入，COMEX 黄金库存为 1118.6 吨，-4.6 吨；上期所黄金库存为 91.3 吨，维持不变；黄金 ETF 持仓为 1053.1 吨，+2.3 吨；伦敦 11 月黄金库存 8906 吨，+48 吨；COMEX 白银库存为 14099.5 吨， -76.4 吨；上期所白银库存为 820.9 吨，+40.3 吨；iShares 白银 ETF 持仓为 16102 吨，+19.7 吨。伦敦 11 月白银库存增加 932 吨至 27183 吨；印度 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading strategies for each commodity. The overall view is that different commodities face diverse market conditions, with some showing potential for price increases, others for decreases, and some expected to trade within specific ranges or remain volatile. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Basic Metals - **Copper**: Market showed a sideways movement yesterday. With economic data needing a boost, supply tightness persists, and the trading strategy is to buy on dips [2]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract price dropped by 1.13% yesterday. Supply increased slightly while demand weakened, and prices are expected to trade sideways [2]. - **Alumina**: The main contract price rose by 2.71% yesterday. Supply remained stable while demand was strong, but the upside is limited, and downward pressure persists [2]. - **Zinc**: The 2512 contract price fell by 0.78% yesterday. Supply tightened due to production cuts, demand was mixed, and the strategy is to buy on dips cautiously [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main 05 contract price decreased by 0.48%. Supply increased and demand was stable, and the market is expected to trade weakly between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton [2][3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main 05 contract price rose by 1.47%. Supply was stable while demand declined, and the market is expected to trade widely between 50000 - 58000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Tin**: The price moved weakly yesterday. Supply was tight, and the trading strategy is to buy on dips [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2605 contract price rose by 4 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weak, and the strategy is to mainly observe and consider shorting the 2605 contract [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2605 contract price rose by 1 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weakening, and the strategy is to mainly observe [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2605 contract price fell by 7.5 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weakening, and the strategy is to mainly observe and close previous positions [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans are in a downward trend. Supply is mixed, demand is divided, and the market is trading the expectation of a South American bumper harvest [6]. - **Corn**: Futures prices are oscillating, and spot prices are showing a mixed trend. Supply - demand is complex, and the futures are expected to decline while spot prices may weaken [6]. - **Edible Oils**: The Malaysian palm oil market is falling. Supply is seasonally decreasing but increasing year - on - year, demand is weak, and the market is expected to trade weakly [6]. - **White Sugar**: The 05 contract price fell by 1.34%. International and domestic markets are under pressure, and the strategy is to short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices are rising, and domestic prices are also increasing. Supply - demand is mixed, and the strategy is to buy on dips [7]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices are weak, and spot prices are stable. Supply - demand is balanced, and prices are expected to trade sideways [7]. - **Hogs**: Futures prices are oscillating, and spot prices are showing a mixed trend. Supply is abundant, demand is seasonally increasing, and prices are expected to trade sideways [7]. - **Apples**: The main contract price fell by 3.02%. Supply - demand is weak, and the strategy is to observe [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract showed a slight oscillation. Supply pressure is rising but at a slower pace, demand is weakening, and the short - term trend is weak while the long - term outlook is better [8][9]. - **PVC**: The V05 contract rose by 1.5%. Supply increased, demand decreased, and the strategy is to short [9]. - **PTA**: PX supply is high, PTA supply is short - term down and mid - term under inventory pressure. The strategy is to hold a long - term bullish view on PX and be cautious on PTA [9]. - **Rubber**: The 2605 contract showed a wide - range oscillation. Supply - demand is balanced with inventory increasing, and the market is expected to trade sideways [9]. - **Glass**: The FG05 contract rose by 0.4%. Supply - demand is weak, and the strategy is to use an inverse spread [9]. - **PP**: The main contract showed a slight oscillation. Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and the short - term trend is weak while the long - term outlook is better [10]. - **MEG**: Supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the strategy is to take profits and wait for mid - term de - stocking opportunities [10]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices fell to a new low. Supply pressure is high, demand is in the off - season, and the strategy is to short [10]. - **Styrene**: The main contract showed a slight oscillation. Supply - demand is weak in the short - term and the strategy is to trade sideways, with a long - term bullish view on styrene [10][11]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa05 contract rose by 1.4%. Supply increased, inventory is high, demand is weak, and the strategy is to use an inverse spread [11].