Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, suggesting going long on gold; the long - term trend of industrial silver is downward, suggesting short - selling silver on rallies [1]. - For base metals, copper is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term; electrolytic aluminum is expected to be volatile and weaker, suggesting waiting and seeing; alumina is expected to have a wide - range shock in the short term, and long positions in far - month contracts can be considered; industrial silicon is expected to have a wide - range shock, suggesting waiting and seeing; lithium carbonate prices are expected to rise in the short term, and the subsequent price drivers need to focus on the resumption time; polysilicon is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan, and tin is expected to be in an interval shock [1][2][3]. - For the black industry, steel is expected to be in a balanced supply - demand situation with obvious structural differentiation, and the market is expected to be in a shock; iron ore is expected to have a slightly stronger supply - demand situation, and the market is expected to be in a shock; coking coal has a relatively loose supply - demand situation, and short - selling the 2509 contract can be tried [5]. - For agricultural products, soybean meal is expected to follow the international cost - end in the medium term; corn futures prices are expected to be volatile and weaker; sugar futures can be short - sold, and call options can be sold; cotton can wait and see with a shock strategy; logs can wait and see; palm oil is expected to be in a shock in the short term and more long - allocated in the medium term; eggs are expected to be volatile and weaker; pork is expected to be in a shock adjustment [6][7][8]. - For energy and chemicals, LLDPE is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term; PVC can wait and see; PX can wait and see, and PTA can look for short - term positive spread opportunities and short - sell processing fees or short far - month contracts in the long - term; rubber is expected to be volatile and stronger in the short term; glass can wait and see; PP is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term; MEG can wait and see; crude oil can look for short - selling opportunities at around 520 yuan/barrel; styrene is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term; soda ash can wait and see [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On Friday, precious metals fluctuated. International gold prices rose 0.08% to $3398 per ounce, and international silver prices rose 0.09% to $38.325 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The White House may not increase taxes on 100 - ounce gold bars; a Fed official supports three interest rate cuts this year; the central bank increased gold holdings for 8 consecutive months; domestic gold ETF funds flowed back, and gold and silver inventories in different regions changed [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on gold; short - sell silver on rallies [1]. Base Metals - **Copper** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, copper prices fluctuated and were slightly stronger [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The US dollar index is expected to weaken; the supply of copper ore is still tight, and the scrap copper is in short supply; the global visible inventory increased by 27,000 tons, and the domestic consumption is in the off - season [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the 2509 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed at 20,685 yuan/ton, down 0.31% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The smelters maintain high - load production, and the operating capacity increases slightly; the consumption has no obvious improvement, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate is stable [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and weaker, suggesting waiting and seeing [2]. - **Alumina** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the 2509 contract of alumina closed at 3170 yuan/ton, down 2.19% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina is stable; electrolytic aluminum smelters maintain high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to have a wide - range shock in the short term, focusing on the support at 3100 yuan; long positions in far - month contracts can be considered [3]. - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the main 11 - contract closed at 8710 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton, with an increase in positions and a decrease in warehouse receipts [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The price followed the rise of coking coal last week; a "counter - involution" initiative boosted market sentiment; the spot price declined slightly; the supply increased, and the demand of different downstream industries changed [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to have a wide - range shock, suggesting waiting and seeing [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the main LC2511 contract closed at 76,960 yuan/ton, up 7.73% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: A mining area of CATL stopped production; the supply - side production capacity recovered, and the demand in August was in the peak season; the inventory increased due to supply recovery [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to rise to 85,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and the subsequent price drivers need to focus on the resumption time [3]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the main 11 - contract closed at 50,790 yuan/ton, up 680 yuan/ton, with an increase in positions and an increase in warehouse receipts [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased slightly, and the demand in August was in line with expectations; the photovoltaic installation demand in the third quarter was pessimistic; new brands were added for futures registration [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan [3]. - **Tin** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, tin prices fluctuated and were weaker [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the demand is weak; the inventory decreased by 330 tons [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be in an interval shock in the short term [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar** - **Market Performance**: The main 2510 contract of rebar closed at 3207 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of building materials is neutral, and the inventory pressure is small; the demand for plates is stable; the futures discount of rebar widened, and the market sentiment cooled [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the 2510 contract, with a reference range of 3160 - 3240 yuan [5]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Performance**: The main 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 793 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand is slightly stronger; the iron - water production decreased slightly, and the steel mill profit margin expanded; the supply is in line with the seasonal law, and the inventory accumulation may be slower than the seasonal law [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, with a reference range of 770 - 810 yuan [5]. - **Coking Coal** - **Market Performance**: The main 2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1213.5 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The iron - water production decreased, and the steel mill profit margin narrowed; the fifth round of coke price increase was implemented; the inventory in different links was differentiated, and the overall supply - demand is relatively loose [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and try to short - sell the 2509 contract, with a reference range of 1160 - 1230 yuan [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal** - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans fell last Friday [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is loose in the near - term and expected to be large in the long - term; the demand is dominated by South America, and the export demand of US soybeans is weak [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow the international cost - end in the medium term, and focus on the weather in production areas and tariff policies [6]. - **Corn** - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract of corn was weaker, and the spot price fell [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Wheat substitutes for corn in feed demand, and the import of grains increased; the new - crop corn cost decreased, and the spot price is expected to be weaker [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be volatile and weaker [6]. - **Sugar** - **Market Performance**: ICE raw sugar rose 0.43% last week, and Zhengzhou sugar fell 0.84% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The production in Brazil increased, and the domestic processing sugar put pressure on the spot price; Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak and volatile [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell in the futures market and sell call options [7]. - **Cotton** - **Market Performance**: US cotton futures rebounded last Friday, and international crude oil prices continued to fall [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton export contract reached 108.20% of the annual expected export volume; the domestic cotton futures rebounded, and the textile and clothing export decreased [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, with a shock strategy in the range of 13,600 - 14,000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Logs** - **Market Performance**: The 09 contract of logs closed at 830.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 1.10% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of logs rose, and the market has expectations for the future; it is mainly based on the delivery logic in the short term, fluctuating around 800 yuan/cubic meter [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [7]. - **Palm Oil** - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose slightly last Friday [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The production in Malaysia increased seasonally, and the export decreased; it is expected to accumulate inventory [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be in a shock in the short term and more long - allocated in the medium term, focusing on the production in production areas and biodiesel policies [7]. - **Eggs** - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract of eggs continued to rebound, and the spot price rose slightly over the weekend [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The egg - laying rate of hens decreased seasonally, and the demand of downstream food factories increased seasonally; the supply is sufficient, and the cost decreased [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be volatile and weaker [7]. - **Pork** - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract of pork was stronger, and the spot price rebounded over the weekend [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The consumption decreased seasonally, and the supply increased in August; the supply will continue to increase in the medium term [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be in a shock adjustment [8]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE** - **Market Performance**: The main contract of LLDPE continued to fluctuate slightly on Friday; the domestic and overseas market prices and the basis situation are as described [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic supply increased, and the import is expected to decrease; the demand for agricultural films increased, and other demands were stable [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term [9]. - **PVC** - **Market Performance**: The V09 contract closed at 4998, down 0.1% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak; the inventory accumulated [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price has limited room to fall, suggesting waiting and seeing [9]. - **PTA** - **Market Performance**: The PX price was 831 dollars/ton, and the PTA spot price was 4670 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of PX increased, and the supply of PTA decreased; the polyester load was stable, and the inventory pressure was relieved [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for PX; look for short - term positive spread opportunities for PTA and short - sell processing fees or short far - month contracts in the long - term [9]. - **Rubber** - **Market Performance**: The price of rubber fluctuated and was stronger last week, with the RU2601 contract up 2.57% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The raw material prices in Thailand were stable, and the downstream tire production and inventory situation changed [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and stronger in the short term [10]. - **Glass** - **Market Performance**: The FG09 contract closed at 1065, up 0.3% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The production and sales of glass decreased, and the inventory accumulated; the downstream demand was general [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price has limited room to fall, suggesting waiting and seeing [10]. - **PP** - **Market Performance**: The main contract of PP continued to fluctuate slightly on Friday; the domestic and overseas market prices and the basis situation are as described [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased, and the demand in different downstream industries was differentiated [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term [10]. - **MEG** - **Market Performance**: The spot price of MEG in East China was 4465 yuan/ton, and the basis was 75 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is at a high level, and the import is expected to be low; the polyester load is stable, and the inventory pressure is relieved [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [10]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Performance**: Oil prices fell continuously last week due to economic concerns and geopolitical factors [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand in the US is stable; the refining profit is at a high level [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities at around 520 yuan/barrel [10]. - **Styrene** - **Market Performance**: The main contract of styrene fluctuated slightly on Friday; the domestic and overseas market prices and the basis situation are as described [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene is expected to increase slightly; the downstream demand is under pressure, and the export demand is a focus [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term [11]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Performance**: The sa09 contract closed at 1242, down 0.4% [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of soda ash is in a weak balance, and the inventory is high; the downstream photovoltaic glass is expected to reduce production [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [11].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Analyze the lead - zinc market from a global macro perspective, exploring the relationship between macro factors and lead - zinc, and the impact of "anti - involution" and fiscal policies on lead - zinc prices [1][6] - There are signs of endogenous kinetic energy repair, including the possible start of an active inventory replenishment cycle and improvement in PMI [36][39] - The central price of lead - zinc is related to GDP growth and industrial added - value [42][44] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Macro and Lead - Zinc Relationship - In terms of macro - attributes, the order is gold > copper > aluminum > zinc > lead, and lead has a very weak macro - attribute [4] - Analyze the relationship between lead - zinc and coal, copper, and use coal to understand "anti - involution" and copper to understand global fiscal policies [6] 3.2 "Anti - Involution" and Lead - Zinc Price Performance - Historically, during "supply - side reforms", lead - zinc often rose together with stocks and commodities. It is necessary to analyze the intensity of the current "anti - involution" [9] - From 2010 to 2025, lead and zinc prices showed different percentage changes during different "anti - involution" periods. For example, from 2016 - 2017, lead rose 141.6% and zinc rose 212.9%, while since July 2025, lead decreased 3.1% and zinc increased 2.2% [11] 3.3 Reasons for "Anti - Involution" - "Involution" refers to a vicious competition where economic entities invest a lot of resources without overall revenue growth, and production factor prices deviate from value [15] - The purpose of "anti - involution" is to reverse the situation of "quantity increase and price decrease". In June 2025, CPI increased 0.1% year - on - year, PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year, and the PPI - CPI gap continued to widen [18] 3.4 Fiscal Policies and Lead - Zinc Market - Fiscal policies are crucial as high resident and enterprise leverage ratios make fiscal policies determine the economic performance differences among countries. For example, China's exports are related to fiscal policies [30] - China's fiscal policy is continuously strengthening, and the US is also implementing fiscal expansion. Global major countries are all conducting fiscal expansion [33][34] 3.5 Endogenous Kinetic Energy Repair - There are signs of an active inventory replenishment cycle (profit increase and inventory increase), and PPI and industrial enterprise profits have basically bottomed out [38] - From the perspective of the difference between enterprise and resident deposits, PMI is expected to improve after the third quarter [41] 3.6 Determinants of Lead - Zinc Central Price - The IMF has raised this year's GDP growth forecast to 3% and predicts a slight recovery of global economic growth in 2025, which is related to the central price of lead - zinc [42] - Industrial added - value provides a more accurate perspective for determining the central price of lead - zinc [44]

金融研究 2025年8月8日 星期五 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：8 月 7 日，A 股四大股指多数回调，其中上证指数上涨 0.16%，报收 3639.67 点；深成指 下跌 0.18%，报收 11157.94 点；创业板指下跌 0.68%，报收 2342.86 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.15%， 报收 1058.21 点。市场成交 18,525 亿元，较前日增加 932 亿元。行业板块方面，有色金属(+1.2%)， 美容护理(+0.99%)，房地产(+0.82%)涨幅居前；医药生物(-0.92%)，电力设备(-0.74%)，通信(-0.47%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IM>IC，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,117/216/3,084。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-94、-174、22、245 亿元，分别变动-105、-52、+105、+52 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 112.15、111.14、22.07 与 0.51 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-12.77%、-13.7%、-4.19%与-0.14%，三年期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, suggesting going long on gold; the long - term trend of industrial silver usage is downward, so consider short - selling silver on rallies [1]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro - level drives the price up. As of August 7th, the weekly inventory of aluminum ingots remained flat. Future demand changes need to be tracked, and it is recommended to wait and see. For alumina, as of the 7th, the weekly inventory increased by 62,800 tons, and the number of warehouse receipts continued to increase. It is expected that the alumina price will remain volatile, and it is also recommended to wait and see [2]. - For zinc, supply pressure is significant, and consumption is in the off - season. It is recommended to short on rallies. For lead, with a pattern of weak supply and demand, it is recommended to wait and see mainly and wait for signals of inventory reduction or production cuts in recycled lead [2][4]. - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the price fluctuations of "anti - involution" related commodities. The demand side of the fundamentals has marginally improved, but the production plan in Xinjiang needs to be noted. The futures price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see. For lithium carbonate, on the last working day before the expiration of Ningde's mining license, the futures price is expected to fluctuate greatly. If there are no substantial production cuts, the production cut expectation will be significantly reduced, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For polysilicon, policy news still affects the expectation, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 55,000 yuan [4]. - For steel products, the supply and demand of steel are relatively balanced, but there is obvious structural differentiation. Hold short positions in rebar 2510. For iron ore, the supply and demand are moderately strong, and it is recommended to wait and see. For coking coal, the supply and demand are relatively loose, and the futures valuation is high. It is also recommended to wait and see [5]. - For soybeans, the US soybeans are in a low - value range with weak expectations. The domestic soybeans have a large arrival volume in the short - term, and the high - frequency demand remains high. However, due to tariff policy disturbances, there is a domestic - foreign divergence, and it is recommended to follow the international cost side in the medium - term. For corn, affected by substitutes and the approaching of new grain listing, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. For sugar, the increase in Brazilian production is gradually realized, and it is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options. For cotton, it is recommended to buy on dips and trade within the range of 13,600 - 14,000 yuan/ton. For logs, the spot price is stable, and it is recommended to wait and see. For palm oil, it may enter a short - term shock, but it is still recommended to be long - allocated in the medium - term. For eggs, due to large supply pressure, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. For live pigs, with strong supply and weak demand, the futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [6][7][8]. - For LLDPE, in the short - term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short far - month contracts on rallies. For PVC, due to the expectation of production cuts, it is recommended to wait and see. For PTA, it is recommended to wait and see for PX, and in the short - term, look for positive arbitrage opportunities for PTA. In the long - term, there is still large supply pressure, and it is recommended to short the processing fee or short far - month contracts on rallies. For rubber, the cost provides support, and the expectation of inventory reduction is strengthened, but there is also an expectation of future supply increase. The market is expected to fluctuate widely. For glass, the downside space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see. For PP, in the short - term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short far - month contracts on rallies. For MEG, due to the low - inventory support in the near - term, it is recommended to wait and see. For crude oil, as the demand peak season is ending and supply pressure is increasing, it is recommended to short the SC main contract at around 520 yuan/barrel. For styrene, in the short - term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short far - month contracts on rallies [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Market Performance: On Thursday, precious metals strengthened. The international gold price denominated in London gold rose 0.79% to $3,393 per ounce, and the international silver price denominated in London silver rose 1.2% to $38.289 per ounce [1]. - Fundamentals: Trump plans to meet with Putin in the UAE. Fed officials' statements indicate that weak employment data is affecting the policy balance. Domestic gold ETF funds have re - flowed. There are changes in gold and silver inventories in different regions and exchanges, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF increased by 67.8 tons [1]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on gold; short - sell silver on rallies [1]. Base Metals Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2509 contract increased by 0.92% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 20,750 yuan/ton. The LME price was $2,613 per ton. The closing price of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 0.93% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 3,241 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: For electrolytic aluminum, smelters maintain high - load production, and the operating capacity increases slightly. It is the traditional consumption off - season, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate decreases slightly. For alumina, the operating capacity is stable, and the demand from electrolytic aluminum smelters increases slightly [2]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see for both electrolytic aluminum and alumina [2]. Zinc - Market Performance: The closing price of the zinc 2508 contract increased by 0.87% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 22,550 yuan/ton. The social inventory on August 7th was 113,200 tons, an increase of 5,900 tons from August 4th [2]. - Fundamentals: Supply pressure is significant. The zinc ingot production in August is expected to increase by 18,000 tons to 621,500 tons. The processing fee has jumped, and refinery profits stimulate production. The consumption off - season is obvious, and overseas factors form a tug - of - war [2][4]. - Trading Strategy: Short on rallies [4]. Lead - Market Performance: The closing price of the lead 2508 contract increased by 0.18% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 16,825 yuan/ton. The social inventory on August 7th was 71,100 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from August 4th [4]. - Fundamentals: The pattern of weak supply and demand deepens. The supply of recycled lead is restricted by losses, and the production of primary lead increases slightly. The battery operating rate is stable, and some enterprises build inventories at low prices [4]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see mainly and wait for signals of inventory reduction or production cuts in recycled lead [4]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: On Thursday, the main 11 - contract fluctuated widely, closing at 8,655 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The position increased by 15,654 lots to 224,390 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 105 lots to 50,475 lots [4]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the resumption of production in the southwest region contributed the main increase last week. Both social and warehouse - receipt inventories increased slightly this week. On the demand side, the operating rate of polysilicon increased, and the transaction price in the industry chain increased. The production of silicone increased slightly, and the price was stable. The downstream demand for aluminum alloy entered the off - season, and the operating rate was relatively stable [4]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see [4]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main LC2511 contract closed at 72,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,680 yuan/ton, or 5.36%, due to supply - side production cut information [4]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the weekly production of lithium carbonate increased by 2,288 tons to 19,556 tons, a 13.25% increase. The import lithium concentrate index was $757 per ton. On the demand side, it was the peak season. The production of lithium iron phosphate in August increased by 7.1% to 311,400 tons, and the production of ternary materials increased by 3.1% to 70,800 tons. The inventory decreased due to supply reduction, and the sample inventory was 142,400 tons. The number of warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased to 16,443 lots after cancellation [4]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see [4]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: On Thursday, the main 11 - contract opened low and fluctuated downward, closing at 50,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,235 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The position decreased by 2,072 lots to 136,324 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 60 lots to 3,580 lots [4]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the weekly production increased rapidly, and there is still an expectation of resumption of production due to the increase in warehouse - receipt volume. The industry inventory increased slightly this week. On the demand side, the production schedules of silicon wafers and battery cells in August met expectations, remaining basically the same as in July. The photovoltaic installation demand in the third quarter is pessimistic, with a 38% year - on - year decrease in new photovoltaic installations in June. Some downstream products started to pass on price increases [4]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 55,000 yuan [4]. Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The main 2510 contract of rebar fluctuated lower, closing at 3,215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: According to the Steel Union's data, the apparent demand for rebar increased by 74,000 tons to 2.11 million tons, and the production increased by 100,000 tons to 2.21 million tons. The supply and demand of building materials are neutral, and the inventory pressure is small due to low production. The demand for plates is stable, and the direct and indirect exports remain high, with the inventory continuously decreasing. The overall supply and demand of steel are relatively balanced, but there is obvious structural differentiation. The futures discount of steel remains low, and the valuation is slightly high [5]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in rebar 2510, with the RB10 reference range of 3,180 - 3,250 yuan [5]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main 2509 contract of iron ore fluctuated sideways, closing at 790.5 yuan/ton, the same as the previous night - session closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: According to the Steel Union's data, the port inventory was 143 million tons, an increase of 450,000 tons from last week. The pig iron production decreased by 4,000 tons to 2.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 86,000 tons. The supply and demand of iron ore are moderately strong. The fifth round of coke price increase has been implemented, and the sixth round has not been proposed yet. The steel mill profits are narrowing marginally, and the future production will be stable. The supply is in line with the seasonal pattern, with a slight year - on - year decrease. The iron ore supply and demand are moderately strong on the margin, and it is expected that the inventory accumulation will be slower than the seasonal pattern due to the high base of pig iron demand. The iron ore maintains a forward - discount structure, but the absolute level is at a relatively low level in the same period of history, and the valuation is neutral [5]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see, with the I09 reference range of 770 - 810 yuan [5]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main 2601 contract of coking coal fluctuated sideways, closing at 1,222.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: According to the Steel Union's data, the pig iron production decreased by 4,000 tons to 2.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 86,000 tons. The steel mill profits are narrowing marginally, and the future production will be stable. The fifth round of coke price increase has been implemented, and there is no plan for a new increase. There is a differentiation in inventory at various supply - side links. The coking coal inventory and inventory days of steel mills and coking plants are at relatively low levels in the same period of history, while the inventory at mine mouths, ports, and other links remains at a historical high. At the same time, the production and mine - mouth inventory decreased month - on - month. The overall supply and demand are still relatively loose, but the fundamentals are improving month - on - month. The futures price is at a premium to the spot price, and the forward - premium structure remains. The futures valuation is high [5]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see, with the JM01 reference range of 1,180 - 1,250 yuan [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market Performance: Overnight, the CBOT soybean price rebounded from a low level [6]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, it is loose in the near - term and is also expected to be in large supply in the long - term. The good - quality rate of US soybeans is at a high level. On the demand side, South America dominates in the short - term, but the weekly US soybean exports are higher than expected [6]. - Trading Strategy: US soybeans are in a low - value range with weak expectations. The domestic soybeans have a large arrival volume in the short - term, and the high - frequency demand remains high. However, due to tariff policy disturbances, there is a domestic - foreign divergence. It is recommended to follow the international cost side in the medium - term. Pay attention to the weather in the production areas and tariff policies [6]. Corn - Market Performance: The 2509 contract of corn was weak, and the spot price of corn rose in North China and fell in Northeast China [6]. - Fundamentals: Wheat has high cost - effectiveness and substitutes for the feed demand of corn. The weak wheat price suppresses the corn price. The auction of imported grains increases the market supply, and the low transaction rate reflects weak market sentiment. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high. The easing of the trade situation increases the import expectation. The early - spring corn is about to be listed, and the cost of new - crop corn has decreased significantly, suppressing the long - term price expectation. The spot price of corn is expected to be weak [6][7]. - Trading Strategy: Affected by substitutes and the approaching of new grain listing, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. Sugar - Market Performance: The 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5,575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.59%. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract was 297 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of processed Brazilian sugar after tax with out - of - quota was 436 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamentals: The double - week data of Brazil in July shows that the production has recovered, and the cumulative sugar - making ratio has reached a new high of 51.58%, with the double - week sugar - making ratio as high as 53.68%. The increasing production pressure in Brazil is gradually realized. The domestic macro - sentiment has cooled down. Recently, pay attention to the import volume in July. The coastal sales area quotes have decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to last week. The arrival of processed sugar is putting pressure on the spot price. In the future, the 09 contract of Zhengzhou sugar will mainly fluctuate weakly, with the fluctuation range of [5,600 - 5,900] yuan/ton [7]. - Trading Strategy: Short in the futures market and sell call options [7]. Cotton - Market Performance: Overnight, the US cotton futures price fell, and the international crude oil price continued to weaken. The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated weakly, and the prices of domestic black - sector commodities rose again. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume of national textiles and clothing was $170.74 billion, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [7]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, the latest week's US cotton export sales data decreased month - on

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For stock index futures, the report maintains a long - term bullish view on the economy. It suggests that using stock indices as long - term substitutes can bring certain excess returns and recommends buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [2]. - For treasury bond futures, considering the rising risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to conduct high - level hedging for T and TL contracts in the medium - to - long term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On August 6, A - share major indices all rose. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.45% to 3633.99 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.64% to 11177.78 points; the ChiNext Index climbed by 0.66% to 2358.95 points; and the STAR 50 Index went up by 0.58% to 1059.76 points [2]. - Market trading volume was 1.7592 trillion yuan, an increase of 143.4 billion yuan from the previous day. Defense and military industry (+ 3.07%), machinery and equipment (+ 1.98%), and coal (+ 1.89%) led the gains, while pharmaceutical biology (- 0.65%), commercial and retail (- 0.23%), and building materials (- 0.23%) led the losses [2]. - In terms of market strength, IM > IC > IF > IH. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 3355, 246, and 1816 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors' net inflows in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were 1.1 billion yuan, - 12.1 billion yuan, - 8.3 billion yuan, and 19.3 billion yuan respectively, with changes of + 2.9 billion yuan, - 1.5 billion yuan, - 6.8 billion yuan, and + 5.3 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts was 98.71, 94.18, 16.49, and 1.22 points respectively. The annualized basis yields were - 10.9%, - 11.22%, - 3.04%, and - 0.33% respectively, and the three - year historical quantiles were 31%, 12%, 30%, and 43% respectively [2]. - Detailed performance data of various stock index futures contracts are presented in Table 1, including price, trading volume, open interest, basis, and annualized basis yield [4]. (2) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On August 6, most yields of treasury bond futures declined. Among active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.396, down 1.2 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.557, down 0.6 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.644, down 0.22 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 1.988, up 0.19 bps [2]. - For the current active 2509 contracts, the CTD bonds, yield changes, net basis, and IRR of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are provided [2]. - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 138.5 billion yuan and withdrew 309 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 170.5 billion yuan [2]. - Detailed performance data of various treasury bond futures contracts are presented in Table 2, including price, trading volume, open interest, net basis, and CTD bond implied interest rate [6]. (3) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent prosperity of various sectors is similar to the same period [9]. - Based on the comparison of domestic meso - level data with the same period in the past five years, the prosperity degree of manufacturing, real estate, social activities, infrastructure, and import - export sectors is analyzed, as shown in Figure 2 [10][11].

2025年08月07日 星期四 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周三贵金属震荡，以伦敦金计价的国际金价跌 0.33%，收于 3369 美元/盎司，以伦敦银计价的国 际银价涨 0.05%，收于 37.835 美元/盎司。 基本面：特朗普拟对芯片产品征 100%关税；特朗普下令对印度额外加征 25%关税之 50%；美日贸易协议分 歧持续，美国计划现有关税基础上加征 15%关税；美联储理事库克称 7 月份的就业报告"令人担忧"，暗示近 期降息；10 年期美债拍卖意外疲软，收益率创日当日新高。国内黄金 ETF 资金重新流入，COMEX 黄金库存 1206 吨，增加 2 吨；上期所黄金库存 36 吨，维持不变；伦敦 6 月黄金库存 8774 吨；上期所白银库存 1161 吨，增加 5 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存 1368 吨，基本维持不变吨，COMEX 白银库存 15757 吨，减少 1 吨；伦敦 6 月白银库存增加 421 吨至 23788 吨；印度 6 月白银进口约 200 吨左右。全球最大白银 etf--iShares 持有量为 15112 吨，增加 67.8 吨。 交易策略：去美元化逻辑未变，建议黄金做多；工业 ...

期货研究报告 | 金融工程研究 CTA多数策略回撤，配置窗口逐步打开 ——招商期货CTA市场跟踪周报 （ 2025年07月28日-2025年08月01日） ·联系人-乔垒 ·联系电话：15805605265 ·研究员-赵嘉瑜 ·联系电话： 13686866941 ·qiaolei1@cmschina.com.cn ·zhaojiayu@cmschina.com.cn ·执业资格号: Z0016776 2025年08月05日 核心观点 | 市场回顾 | 商品市场整体下行 | 商品市场整体下行。分板块来看：农产品指数下跌1.05%，贵金属指数下跌2.54%，有色金属指数下跌3.37%， 工业品指数下跌3.75%，能化指数下跌4.15%，黑色指数下跌4.93%；分品种来看：原油指数上涨2.92%，黄金 指数下跌0.85%。 | | --- | --- | --- | | | CTA多数策略下跌 | 本周多数策略下跌，招商期货CTA中短周期策略指数上涨0.05%，产品池中上涨产品占比44%，招商期货CTA 中长周期策略指数下跌0.79%，产品池中上涨产品占比30%。招商期货CTA量化套利策略指数上涨0.08%，产 品 ...

招商期货有限公司 市场表现：8 月 5 日，A 股四大股指全线上行，其中上证指数上涨 0.96%，报收 3617.6 点；深成指 上涨 0.59%，报收 11106.96 点；创业板指上涨 0.39%，报收 2343.38 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.4%， 报收 1053.65 点。市场成交 16,158 亿元，较前日增加 976 亿元。行业板块方面，综合(+1.98%)，银 行(+1.59%)，钢铁(+1.45%)涨幅居前；医药生物(+0.12%)，计算机(+0.25%)，建筑材料(+0.3%)跌幅 居前。从市场强弱看，IF>IH>IM>IC，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 3,901/189/1,325。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-19、-107、-14、140 亿元，分别变动-38、-48、+71、+15 亿 元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 105.48、104.64、21.45 与-0.27 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-11.43%、-12.21%、-3.84%与 0.07%，三年期历史分位数分别为 29%、10%、24%及 46%。 金融研究 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures, including base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading strategies for each commodity. Overall, the market conditions are diverse, with some commodities showing potential for price increases, while others are expected to experience price declines or remain range - bound. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Base Metals - **Copper**: The price oscillated weakly. The US service PMI was lower than expected, increasing recession concerns. LME inventories accumulated, and domestic inventories also rose slightly. The trading strategy is to maintain the idea of buying on dips [1]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The 2509 contract's closing price increased slightly. Supply was high, while demand was in the off - season. The price may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract's closing price rose. Supply capacity was stable, and demand from electrolytic aluminum plants increased. The price is expected to oscillate, and downstream enterprises can sell out - of - the - money put options [1]. - **Zinc**: The 2508 contract's closing price increased. Supply pressure was significant, and demand was in the off - season. The trading strategy is to sell on rallies [1]. - **Lead**: The 2508 contract's closing price increased slightly. The supply - demand pattern was weak. It is recommended to wait and see for inventory reduction or secondary lead production cuts [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract oscillated higher. The overall steel supply - demand was balanced, but there were structural differences. It is recommended to wait and see and close short positions [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract oscillated lower. Supply and demand were moderately strong. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2601 contract oscillated higher. Supply and demand were relatively loose, but the fundamentals were improving. It is recommended to wait and see and close short positions [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybeans were weak. Supply was abundant, and demand was affected by tariffs. Domestic soybeans had different trends from international ones, and it is necessary to pay attention to weather and tariff policies [5]. - **Corn**: The 2509 contract was weak. Wheat substitution and increased supply from imports and new crops pressured the price. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract was weak. Brazil's production increased, and domestic prices were under pressure. It is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton growth was behind schedule, and domestic prices rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips and trade within the 13600 - 14000 yuan/ton range [6]. - **Log**: The 09 contract declined. Spot prices were stable, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Supply was strong, and demand was weak in the short - term. It may oscillate in the short - term but is expected to be bullish in the medium - term [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2509 contract was weak. Supply was increasing, and demand may increase seasonally. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract was weak. Supply was increasing, and demand was seasonally weak. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The price rebounded slightly. Supply was increasing, and demand was improving. It may oscillate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts in the long - term [8]. - **PVC**: The 09 contract rose slightly. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was weak. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **PTA**: PX supply was increasing, and PTA supply was decreasing in the short - term but increasing in the long - term. It is recommended to short processing margins or far - month contracts [8]. - **Rubber**: The price rose. Raw material prices rebounded, and inventories decreased. It is recommended to hold long positions [9]. - **Glass**: The 09 contract declined. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was weak. The price has limited downside, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **PP**: The price oscillated slightly. Supply was increasing, and demand was differentiated. It may oscillate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts in the long - term [9]. - **MEG**: Supply was increasing, and demand was stable. It is recommended to short far - month contracts [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The price was weak. OPEC+ will increase production, and demand was mixed. It is recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities after the sanctions on Russia are clear [9]. - **Styrene**: The price declined slightly. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was weak. It may oscillate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts in the long - term [10].

金融研究 2025年8月5日 星期二 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 | 点；深成指 | 市场表现：8 月 4 日，A 股四大股指低开高走，其中上证指数上涨 0.66%，报收 3583.31 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1.22%， | 上涨 0.46%，报收 11041.56 点；创业板指上涨 0.5%，报收 2334.32 点；科创 50 指数上涨 | | | | | | | 报收 1049.41 点。市场成交 15,182 亿元，较前日减少 1,017 亿元。行业板块方面，国防军工(+3.06%)， | | | | | | | | | | 机械设备(+1.93%)，有色金属(+1.87%)涨幅居前；商贸零售(-0.46%)，石油石化(-0.36%)，社会服务 | | | | (-0.21%)跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IH>IF，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 3,875/230/1,310。沪深两 | | | | | | | 市，机构、主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 20、-58、-86、124 亿元，分别变动+151、+5 ...