2026年01月28日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：周二贵金属夜盘走强，伦敦金逼近 5200 美元/盎司，伦敦银价周三和那个 110 美元/盎司。 | | | 金 | 基本面：美元创四年新低，跌超 1%、创去年 4 月特朗普宣布关税以来最大四日跌幅；美国将在中东举行空军 | | | 属 | 战备演习；美国政府关门时点逼近，特朗普与明州州长通话，同意考虑减少 ICE 人数；"新美联储通讯社"称 | | | | 美联储 1 月料暂停降息。国内黄金 ETF 大幅流入 4.1 吨，COMEX 黄金库存为 1117.8 吨，维持不变；上期所 | | | | 黄金库存为 103.0 吨，维持不变，SPDR 黄金 ETF 持仓为 1086.5 吨，维持不变；COMEX 白银库存为 | 12911 | | | 吨，-3 吨；上期所白银库存为 544.2 吨，-29.6 吨；iShares 白银 ETF 持仓为 15847.5 吨，-126.9 吨；金交所 | | | | 白银上周库存 504.5 吨，-1 吨 ...

金融研究 2026年1月27日 星期二 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 股指期货 市场表现：1 月 26 日，A 股四大股指有所回调，其中上证指数下跌 0.09%，报收 4132.61 点；深成 指下跌 0.85%，报收 14316.64 点；创业板指下跌 0.91%，报收 3319.15 点；科创 50 指数下跌 1.35%， 报收 1532.8 点。市场成交 32,806 亿元，较前日增加 1,625 亿元。行业板块方面，有色金属(+4.57%)， 石油石化(+3.18%)，煤炭(+2.07%)涨幅居前；国防军工(-4.47%)，汽车(-2.31%)，社会服务(-2.3%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,603/98/3,768。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-497、-260、320、437 亿元，分别变动-617、-99、+468、 +247 亿元。 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 76.23、36.69、-12.44 与-8.61 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-6.7%、-3.17%、1.94%与 2.08%，三年 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes multiple commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black commodities, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It provides market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each market, with the overall view that most markets are expected to show a wide - range of fluctuations in the short term, and specific trading strategies vary according to different market conditions [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Market Performance**: On Monday, precious metals continued to rise. London gold reached $5000 per ounce, and London silver reached $117 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In the US, durable goods orders in November increased by 5.3% compared to the previous month (expected increase of 4%). The probability of the US government shutting down again before January 31 has soared to nearly 80%. Domestic gold ETFs had a large inflow of 3.7 tons. COMEX gold inventory decreased by 6.3 tons to 1117.8 tons; SHFE gold inventory increased by 1 ton to 103.0 tons; SPDR gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 1086.5 tons. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 36.8 tons to 12914 tons; SHFE silver inventory decreased by 7.3 tons to 573.8 tons; iShares silver ETF holdings decreased by 115.6 tons to 15974.4 tons; the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory last week decreased by 105 tons to 506 tons; London's silver inventory at the end of December increased from 27183 tons to 27814 tons; India imported about 750 tons of silver in November (imports in October were revised to 1898 tons) [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to Trump's policy changes leading to the selling of US Treasuries, the gold price is rising steadily, so it is recommended to go long. For silver, the speculative sentiment is strong, the inventory shortage in the London area is gradually easing, and the domestic speculative sentiment is high. It is recommended to participate with caution [1]. Base Metals - **Aluminum** - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract decreased by 0.31% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 24215 yuan per ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of - 430 yuan per ton. The LME price was $3190 per ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production. On the demand side, the weekly aluminum product operating rate increased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: There is an expectation of a weakening downstream operating rate, inventory continues to accumulate, and overseas new production capacity expectations are gradually being realized. The pre - holiday market risk - aversion sentiment has increased, leading to a contraction in speculative buying. It is expected that the price will maintain a volatile trend in the short term [2]. - **Alumina** - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main alumina contract increased by 0.29% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 2732 yuan per ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of - 97 yuan per ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, some alumina plants entered the production - reduction and maintenance stage. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: There are short - term fluctuations in supply, and the price has rebounded at a low valuation. However, the oversupply pattern has not changed, and the sustainability of the rebound is questionable. It is expected that the price will maintain a volatile trend in the short term, and the movement of the main funds should be followed [2]. - **Zinc and Lead** - **Market Performance**: On the 1st day session, the main zinc and lead contracts closed at 24725 yuan per ton and 17070 yuan per ton respectively, increasing by 140 yuan and decreasing by 25 yuan compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The domestic 0 - 3 month spreads were - 150 yuan per ton and - 105 yuan per ton respectively, and the overseas 0 - 3 month spreads were - 32.62 and - 44.556 US dollars per ton respectively. Zinc's seven - region inventory on January 26 was 11.68 million tons, a decrease of 0.20 million tons compared to January 22; lead's five - region inventory on January 26 was 3.52 million tons, an increase of 0.07 million tons compared to January 22 [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The lead market shows a pattern of narrowing supply and weak consumption. The negative profit of secondary lead has led to production cuts, but the downstream consumption of electric bicycle batteries is weak, and the Spring Festival inventory - building demand is limited. The social inventory of lead ingots has increased to 3.45 million tons, putting pressure on the lead price. In the zinc market, supply - side disturbances have increased, and some smelters' maintenance has led to reduced arrivals. However, downstream procurement is cautious in the off - season, and the operating rates of galvanizing and die - casting enterprises are fluctuating. The seven - region zinc ingot inventory remains at a high level of 11.88 million tons, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The positive sentiment in the non - ferrous sector has not dissipated. Overall, it is advisable to buy on dips or wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Performance**: On Monday, the market opened flat and rose slightly throughout the day. The main 05 contract closed at 8915 yuan per ton, an increase of 95 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 1.08%. The trading volume increased by 20873 lots to 252300 lots. The variety's settled funds increased by 239 million yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 144 lots to 13115 lots [3]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the number of open furnaces this week decreased by 3 compared to last week, mainly due to the reduction in Sichuan. Social inventory and warehouse - receipt inventory increased slightly this week. On the demand side, both the polysilicon and silicone industries are promoting anti - involution. The polysilicon production in January is expected to decline to 100,000 tons. The silicone industry is holding up prices, and the weekly production has continued to decrease slightly. The aluminum alloy operating rate has remained stable [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Currently, there are continuous rumors of production cuts in the northwest on the supply side, but the duration of the cuts is still uncertain. On the demand side, the production - cut expectations for polysilicon and silicone still exist. The market is more concerned about the actual production - cut situation of large enterprises this week. The futures price is expected to oscillate between 8400 - 9200 yuan, and it is advisable to go short lightly on rallies [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon** - **Market Performance**: On Monday, the market rose rapidly by nearly 3% after opening and then oscillated slightly throughout the day. The main 05 contract closed at 51280 yuan per ton, an increase of 560 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 1.1%. The trading volume decreased by 1 lot to 41290 lots. The variety's settled funds increased by 51 million yuan to 3.533 billion yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts remained at 6850 lots [3]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the weekly production decreased by nearly 10%, and the industry inventory increased slightly this week. The number of warehouse receipts increased significantly this week, with a month - on - month increase of 50%. On the demand side, the production schedule of silicon wafers in January remained stable, while the production schedules of solar cells and components decreased by more than 10% month - on - month. The export of components in April - May increased by 10% year - on - year. The cancellation of the photovoltaic export tax - rebate policy on the 9th has a certain supporting effect on the component export during the window period, and the demand side is expected to be stable in the off - season [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: After the "anti - monopoly" event interview, the futures price has fully reflected the negative news. The near - term balance sheet has shifted from a loose to a tight supply - demand balance. It is necessary to continuously pay attention to the emotional impact brought by the subsequent feedback of industry associations on this interview event. In the short term, the main contract is expected to oscillate between 48000 - 53000 yuan [3]. - **Tin** - **Market Performance**: The tin price rose and then fell yesterday [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The exchange restricted the trading limit of tin futures yesterday, causing the tin price to rise and then fall. On the supply side, the shortage pattern of tin ore continues, and the tin ore production in Wa State is gradually recovering. The Indonesian exchange has started to have tin export - related trading volumes. The domestic warehouse receipts increased by 42 tons, and the premium of deliverable brands is 700 yuan. The London structure is at a contango of 350 US dollars [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for now and wait for a low - price buying opportunity [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar** - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 rebar contract closed at 3144 yuan per ton, a decrease of 6 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: According to the Gangyin data, the building material inventory increased by 5.2% month - on - month to 3.16 million tons (last week's increase was 1.4%). The rebar shipment in Hangzhou on the weekend was 68,000 tons (72,000 tons last week); the inventory was 492,000 tons (488,000 tons last week, 640,000 tons in the same period last year). The supply and demand of steel are neutral, and the structural differentiation is still significant. The demand for building materials remains weak year - on - year, but fortunately, the supply has decreased significantly year - on - year, so the contradiction is limited; the demand for plates is stable, direct and indirect exports remain high, the inventory level is still high, but the marginal change in inventory is at its strongest level in the same period in history. Steel mills are continuously making losses, and the room for production increase is limited. In terms of valuation, the spot steel market was relatively weak last week, and the futures valuation is neutral. It is expected that the steel futures and spot markets will fluctuate widely in the short term [4][5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term shorting of the rebar 2605 contract. The reference range for RB05 is 3110 - 3170 yuan [5]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 iron ore contract closed at 789 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day's night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The shipments from Australia and Brazil increased by 1.48 million tons month - on - month to 23.94 million tons, an increase of 5.26 million tons year - on - year. The supply and demand of iron ore are neutral. According to the Ganglian data, the molten iron production remained basically unchanged month - on - month, an increase of 1.2% year - on - year. The fourth round of price cuts has been implemented, but the coking plants have proposed the first round of price increases. Steel mills' profits are poor, and the subsequent blast furnace production may decline slightly. The supply side conforms to the seasonal pattern and is slightly higher year - on - year. The proportion of mainstream iron ore inventory in ports and the number of days of steel mill inventory remain at the lowest levels in the same period in history. The iron ore maintains a forward - discount structure but is slightly lower year - on - year, and the valuation is neutral. It is expected that the iron ore futures and spot markets will fluctuate widely in the short term [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see mainly. The reference range for I05 is 780 - 810 yuan [5]. - **Coking Coal** - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 coking coal contract closed at 1137 yuan per ton, a decrease of 6 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day's night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: According to the Ganglian data, the molten iron production increased by 100 tons month - on - month to 2.281 million tons, an increase of 36,000 tons year - on - year. Steel mills' profits are poor, and the subsequent blast furnace production may decline slightly. The fourth round of price cuts for coke has been implemented, and the first round of price increases has been proposed. On the supply side, the inventories at various links are differentiated, with high inventories at ports and mines and low inventories at other links. The overall inventory level is low. The 05 contract futures are at a premium to the spot, and the forward - premium structure is maintained. The futures valuation is high. The supply and demand of coking coal are weak [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term shorting of the coking coal 2605 contract. The reference range for JM05 is 1110 - 1160 yuan [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal** - **Market Performance**: The CBOT soybeans declined overnight [6]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the near - term supply is loose; in the long - term, South America maintains a large - supply expectation. Brazil has entered the early harvest stage, but the weather in Argentina is dry. On the demand side, US soybean crushing is strong, and exports are improving marginally. Overall, the global supply - demand is expected to be loose [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, US soybeans are expected to stabilize and strengthen. Pay attention to the weather market. In China, it will follow the international cost side and fluctuate in stages. Pay attention to the South American weather and customs policies [6]. - **Corn** - **Market Performance**: The corn futures oscillated narrowly, and the spot prices in some corn - producing areas increased [6]. - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply and demand, the grain - selling progress has exceeded half, and the grain - selling pressure is not large. Farmers are reluctant to sell and are holding up prices. The inventories at north - south ports, downstream feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises are lower than in previous years. Northeast deep - processing enterprises have a high enthusiasm for building inventories. Southern regions prefer to import due to the high cost - effectiveness of imported grains. The short - term spot price is expected to follow the northern regions and strengthen. Pay attention to weather and policy changes [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply - demand contradiction is not large, and the futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [6]. - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian market rose yesterday [6]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the MPOA estimates that the Malaysian production from January 1 - 20 decreased by 14% month - on - month, which is in the seasonal production - reduction period. On the demand side, exports improved month - on - month. The high - frequency ITS data shows that the Malaysian exports from January 1 - 25 increased by 10% month - on - month. Overall, the near - term supply is loose, and the long - term supply is in the seasonal production - reduction period [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats are expected to strengthen in stages, trading on the weak current situation and strong expectations, and the reverse - spread will continue. In the medium term, pay attention to production and biodiesel policies [6]. - **Sugar** - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5170 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.1%. The basis between the Nanning spot and the Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract is 100 yuan per ton. The estimated profit of processing Brazilian sugar after tax with out - of - quota imports is 323 yuan per ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, the sugar - alcohol price difference has widened by 2 cents again and is still expanding. There is an expectation of reducing the sugar - alcohol ratio in the next season. Continuously observe the growth of Brazilian sugarcane and the impact of the sugar - alcohol price difference on the next season's Brazilian production. Currently, it is still in an oscillating pattern. Domestically, the overall sales - production progress this year is slow. New sugar is mainly stored in warehouses, and the future spot pressure is greater. SR05 is priced by imports and domestic production. The import volume in December adds pressure again, and the fundamentals are bearish, but beware of the risk of state - reserve purchases due to macro policies [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close short positions and wait and see mainly [8]. - **Cotton** - **Market Performance**: The ICE US cotton futures price declined significantly overnight. The international crude oil oscillated narrowly,

金融研究 2026年1月26日 星期一 金融期货早班车 风险提示：外生宏观冲击、财政扩张进度不及预期、其他系统性冲击。 市场表现：1 月 23 日，利率债略反弹，活跃合约中，TS 上涨 0.01%，TF 上涨 0.04%，T 上涨 0.03%， TL 上涨 0.07%。 现券：目前活跃合约为 2603 合约，2 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 250017.IB，收益率变动-0.5bps，对应 净基差 0.008，IRR1.44%；5 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 2500801.IB，收益率变动-0.5bps，对应净基差 国债期货 -0.016，IRR1.6%；10 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 250018.IB，收益率变动-1.2bps，对应净基差 0.012， IRR1.41%；30 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 210005.IB，收益率变动-1bps，对应净基差 0.086，IRR1.04%。 资金面：公开市场操作方面，央行货币投放 1,250 亿元，货币回笼 867 亿元，净投放 383 亿元。 交易策略：中长线，风偏上行叠加经济复苏预期，建议 T、TL 逢高套保。 风险提示：货币政策宽松超预期，经济复苏 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall commodity market shows a complex situation with different trends and investment opportunities in various sectors such as precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Each sector is affected by different supply - demand factors and geopolitical events. 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On Friday, precious metals continued to rise. London gold approached $5000 per ounce, and London silver price exceeded $100 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer indicated that Democrats would reject the spending plan if it includes DHS funding. India and the EU reached an agreement to lower auto import tariffs. Domestic gold had a significant inflow of 3.1 tons, and there were changes in inventories of gold and silver in different exchanges and ETFs [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest to go long on gold as Trump's policy changes trigger capital to sell US Treasuries. For silver, due to strong speculation and changing inventory situations, it is advised to participate cautiously [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: - **Market Performance**: Copper price was strongly running on Friday [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The market was trading the de - dollarization caused by the Greenland dispute. Supply was tight, and there were mine strikes and blockades. Rio Tinto raised its production guidance. Demand was in the domestic downstream seasonal off - season [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest to buy on dips [2]. - **Aluminum**: - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract on Friday increased by 0.98% compared to the previous trading day, reaching 24,290 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintained high - load production. The weekly aluminum product operating rate increased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Near the Spring Festival, multiple factors restrict price increases, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. - **Alumina**: - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main alumina contract on Friday increased by 0.26% compared to the previous trading day, reaching 2724 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Some alumina plants entered the production - reduction and rotation - maintenance stage. Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price rebound lacks fundamental support, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Follow the movement of the main funds [2][3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price ratio of - 0.06% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased this week, and social and warehouse inventories increased slightly. Demand in the polysilicon and organosilicon industries was weakening [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 8400 - 9200 yuan/ton. Consider going short lightly on rallies [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 181,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.5% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased due to some lithium salt plant overhauls. Demand in the lithium - related industries was also decreasing. Inventory was in a tight - balance situation [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to supply concerns and demand for export rush, the price is expected to be more likely to rise than fall [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 50,720 yuan/ton, an increase of 205 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price ratio of 0.41% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased, and inventory increased slightly. Demand in some sectors was weak, but component exports were expected to support the market [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton in the short term [3]. - **Tin**: - **Market Performance**: Tin price reached a new high on Friday [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was tight, and demand was strong as indicated by the high premium of deliverable brands [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest to buy on dips [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3150 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Steel supply and demand were neutral, with significant structural differentiation. Rebar demand was weak, but supply also decreased. Plate demand was stable, and exports were high. Steel mills were in a loss - making situation, limiting production increase [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close short positions on the 2605 contract of rebar. The reference range for RB05 is 3120 - 3180 yuan/ton [5]. - **Iron Ore**: - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 792 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Iron ore supply and demand were neutral. Steel mill profits were poor, and blast furnace production might decrease. Supply followed seasonal patterns and increased slightly year - on - year. Port and steel mill inventories were at low levels [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The reference range for I05 is 780 - 810 yuan/ton [5]. - **Coking Coal**: - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1143 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Coking coal supply and demand were weak. Coke price adjustments occurred, and inventory was at different levels in different links [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close short positions. The reference range for JM05 is 1120 - 1170 yuan/ton [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose slightly last Friday [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was loose in the near - term and expected to be abundant in the long - term from South America. Demand for US soybean crushing was strong, and exports improved marginally [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the weather in South America. The domestic market is expected to be range - bound, following the international cost - end [6]. - **Corn**: - **Market Performance**: Corn futures were strongly running, and spot prices in corn - producing areas mostly rose [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress was over half, and farmers were reluctant to sell. Inventories at ports and downstream enterprises were lower than usual. Northeast deep - processing enterprises were eager to build inventories, and southern regions preferred imports [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to limited supply - demand contradictions [6]. - **Oils and Fats**: - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian market declined last Friday [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was in a weak seasonal reduction, and demand for exports improved. Overall, the near - term was loose, and the long - term was in a weak seasonal reduction [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats are expected to be strong in the short term. Continue the reverse - spread strategy. Pay attention to production and biodiesel policies in the medium term [7]. - **Sugar**: - **Market Performance**: ICE raw sugar 03 contract closed at 14.73 cents/pound, with a weekly decline of 1.73%. Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5180 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.48% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, the sugar - alcohol price difference was widening, and there was an expectation of reducing the sugar - alcohol ratio. Domestically, the sales progress was slow, and new sugar was mainly stored. SR05 was priced by imports and domestic production, and December imports added pressure [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close short positions and adopt a wait - and - see approach [7]. - **Cotton**: - **Market Performance**: ICE US cotton futures fluctuated and declined last Friday, and international crude oil first rose and then fell [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, US cotton export sales increased significantly. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton futures opened lower and fluctuated narrowly, and the downstream operating rate was stable, with inventories decreasing [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips, with the price range of 14,500 - 14,900 yuan/ton [7]. - **Eggs**: - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices declined, and spot prices showed mixed trends [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The laying - hen inventory decreased, but the increase in egg prices at the end of the year led to better profits and more active replenishment. As the stocking period ended, supply increased and demand decreased, and egg prices might decline seasonally [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Spot prices are expected to decline seasonally, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - **Hogs**: - **Market Performance**: Hog futures prices were weakly running, and weekend spot prices rose [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply and demand are expected to increase from the end of the month to before the Spring Festival. The current slaughter progress is slow, and there is greater pressure on future slaughter [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Supply and demand are weakening, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - **Apples**: - **Market Performance**: The main contract closed at 9535 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.06%. Apple prices in Shandong Yantai Qixia were stable [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The previous production - reduction expectation was realized, and the market shifted from the supply side to the demand side. Supported by production reduction and low high - quality fruit rate, there is a bottom - line, but the Spring Festival stocking rhythm and alternative fruits limit the upside [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: - **Market Performance**: The main LLDPE contract rose slightly on Friday. The spot price in North China was 6700 yuan/ton, and the basis was weakening [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure from domestic new - device production slowed down, and imports were expected to decrease slightly. Demand was in the off - season for agricultural films, and other areas' demand was stable [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the price is expected to be slightly strong and fluctuate, with the upside limited by the import window. In the medium term, suggest buying on dips [8]. - **PVC**: - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 4935, an increase of 1.2% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: PVC spot prices declined, and the forward - looking futures prices rose. Supply was at a high level, and demand was seasonally weakening. Social inventory was accumulating [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest a reverse - spread strategy of selling 05 and buying 09 contracts [8]. - **PTA**: - **Market Performance**: PXCFR China price was $923/ton, and PTA East China spot price was 5285 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 76 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: PX supply was at a high level, and PTA supply was also high. Polyester factory load decreased, and downstream demand was in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: PX has a strong price expectation but may face short - term callback pressure. PTA has a seasonal inventory build - up, and it is appropriate to take profits when the processing fee is high [8]. - **Glass**: - **Market Performance**: FG05 closed at 1069, an increase of 0.7% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Glass prices were stable, demand was seasonally weakening, supply decreased, and inventory was accumulating. Downstream enterprises' orders and operating rates were low, and production was in a loss - making situation [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach or buy glass and sell soda ash [8]. - **PP**: - **Market Performance**: The main PP contract rose slightly on Friday. The spot price in East China was 6530 yuan/ton, and the basis was weakening [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure increased slightly, and the export window opened. Demand was stable due to national subsidy policies [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the price is expected to be slightly strong and fluctuate, with the upside limited by the import window. In the long - term, the price is expected to fluctuate in a range, and it is advisable to go short on rallies [9]. - **MEG**: - **Market Performance**: MEG East China spot price was 3798 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 118 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was at a high level, and imports were expected to decrease. Polyester load decreased, and downstream demand was in the off - season [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell the 05 contract on rallies [9]. - **Crude Oil**: - **Market Performance**: Oil prices fluctuated strongly this week due to cold weather in the US and the risk of military conflict in the Middle East. Next week, prices may fall if the production impact is small [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure was large as OPEC+ maintained the non - increase plan, but other countries' production capacity was released. Demand was in the off - season, and inventory was accumulating [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Do not chase the high price. Consider shorting lightly at high points or buying put options [9]. - **Styrene**: - **Market Performance**: The main EB contract fluctuated at a high level on Friday. The spot price in East China was 7900 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Pure benzene supply was weak, and styrene supply and demand were both weak. Downstream enterprise inventories were high, but the operating rate increased [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate widely, with the upside limited by the import window. In the second quarter, suggest buying styrene on dips or conducting a pure - benzene reverse - spread and buying styrene profit on dips [9]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 closed at 1190, unchanged [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The bottom price of soda ash was in a stalemate, and upstream orders were acceptable. Supply was large, and inventory was at a high level. Downstream demand from photovoltaic glass was weak, with high inventory [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest short - allocating due to increasing supply and weak demand [10].

2026年1月23日 星期五 金融研究 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 | | 市场表现：1 月 日，A 股四大股指全线上涨，其中上证指数上涨 0.14%，报收 22 | | | 点；深成 4122.58 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指上涨 0.5%，报收 14327.05 点；创业板指上涨 1.01%，报收 3328.65 点；科创 | | | 50 指数上涨 0.41%， | | | 报收 1541.64 点。市场成交 27,164 亿元，较前日增加 927 | | | 亿元。行业板块方面，建筑材料(+4.09%)， | | | 国防军工(+3.23%)，石油石化(+3.07%)涨幅居前；美容护理(-0.76%)，银行(-0.43%)，医药生物 | | | | | | (-0.42%)跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 | | | 3,576/119/1,774。沪深两 | | | 市，机构、主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-10、-95、-37、141 | | | 亿元，分别变动-164、+4、 | | 股指期货 | ...

2026年01月23日 星期五 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价围绕十万元震荡运行。 | | | | 基本面：特朗普要获取格陵兰岛的事件持续发酵，美国经历了股债汇三杀之后，市场情绪回归。供应端，铜 | | | 铜 | 矿紧张格局延续。精铜端，伦敦和美国价差拉平，伦敦持续交仓压制价格。伦敦结构 55 美金 contango。 | | | | 交易策略：建议等待企稳买入。 | | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | 24055 0-3 市场表现：昨日电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.41%，收于 元/吨，国内 月差-370 元/吨， | | | | LME 价格 3123 美元/吨。 | | | 铝 | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，周度铝材开工率小幅上升。 | | | | 交易策略：消费端淡季特征显著，库存延续累积，供需矛盾叠加市场情绪趋于谨慎，铝价短期维持震荡调整。 | | | | 风险提示：海外供应扰动、投机资金获利了结。 | ...

| | 市场表现：1 月 日，A 股四大股指全线上涨，其中上证指数上涨 0.08%，报收 点；深成 21 4116.94 | | --- | --- | | | 指上涨 0.7%，报收 14255.13 点；创业板指上涨 0.54%，报收 3295.52 点；科创 50 指数上涨 3.53%， | | | 报收 1535.39 点。市场成交 26,237 亿元，较前日减少 1,805 亿元。行业板块方面，有色金属(+2.79%)， | | | 电子(+2.62%)，机械设备(+1.5%)涨幅居前；银行(-1.58%)，煤炭(-1.57%)，食品饮料(-1.53%)跌幅 | | | 居前。从市场强弱看，IC>IM>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 3,095/179/2,195。沪深两市，机构、主 | | | 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 155、-98、-100、44 亿元，分别变动+627、+194、-345、-475 | | 股指期货 | 亿元。 | | | 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 16.68、-30.89、0.27 与-6.42 点，基差年化收益率分别 | | | 为-1 ...

2026年01月22日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 基本金属 招商评论 铝 市场表现：昨日电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.86%，收于 24155 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差-295 元/吨， LME 价格 3135 美元/吨。 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，周度铝材开工率小幅上升。 交易策略：消费端淡季特征显著，库存延续累积，供需矛盾叠加市场情绪趋于谨慎，铝价短期维持震荡调整。 风险提示：海外供应扰动、投机资金获利了结。 氧 化 铝 市场表现：昨日氧化铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.04%，收于 2672 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差-35 元/吨。 基本面：供应方面，氧化铝厂运行产能维持稳定。需求方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产。 交易策略：现货价格企稳，但远期供应过剩压力较大，叠加到期仓单集中注销，氧化铝盘面价格维持偏弱走 势。 风险提示：几内亚矿端扰动，大规模集中减产，反内卷政策刺激。 锌 市场表现：1 月 21 日日盘，锌、铅主力合约收于 24350 元/吨,17115 元/吨,较前一交易日收盘价分别-+60,-+110 元/克。国内 0 ...

金融研究 2026年1月21日 星期三 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 | | 市场表现：1 月 日，A 股四大股指有所下跌，其中上证指数下跌 0.01%，报收 点；深成 20 4113.65 | | --- | --- | | | 指下跌 0.97%，报收 14155.63 点；创业板指下跌 1.79%，报收 3277.98 点；科创 50 指数下跌 1.58%， | | | 报收 1482.99 点。市场成交 28,042 亿元，较前日增加 720 亿元。行业板块方面，石油石化(+1.74%)， | | | 建筑材料(+1.71%)，房地产(+1.55%)涨幅居前；通信(-3.23%)，国防军工(-2.87%)，计算机(-1.94%) | | | 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,231/137/3,102。沪深两市，机构、 | | | 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-472、-292、244、520 亿元，分别变动-263、-103、+151、 | | 股指期货 | | | | 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 61.95、-1、10.28 ...