2025年12月16日 星期二 金融研究 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：12 月 15 日，A 股四大股指有所回调，其中上证指数下跌 0.55%，报收 3867.92 点；深 成指下跌 1.1%，报收 13112.09 点；创业板指下跌 1.77%，报收 3137.8 点；科创 50 指数下跌 2.22%， 报收 1318.91 点。市场成交 17,944 亿元，较前日减少 3,246 亿元。行业板块方面，非银金融(+1.59%)， 商贸零售(+1.49%)，农林牧渔(+1.24%)涨幅居前；电子(-2.42%)，通信(-1.89%)，传媒(-1.63%)跌幅 居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,313/176/2,965。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-168、-192、38、322 亿元，分别变动-140、-131、+162、+109 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 73.88、53.16、24.26 与 8.47 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-10.99%、-8.12%、-5.79%与-3.08%， ...

金融研究 2025年12月15日 星期一 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：12 月 12 日，A 股四大股指全线上涨，其中上证指数上涨 0.41%，报收 3889.35 点；深 成指上涨 0.84%，报收 13258.33 点；创业板指上涨 0.97%，报收 3194.36 点；科创 50 指数上涨 1.74%， 报收 1348.88 点。市场成交 21,190 亿元，较前日增加 2,337 亿元。行业板块方面，有色金属(+1.5%)， 电子(+1.46%)，电力设备(+1.42%)涨幅居前；商贸零售(-1.28%)，综合(-1.18%)，建筑材料(-0.47%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IC>IM>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,681/162/2,610。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-28、-62、-124、213 亿元，分别变动+305、+169、-294、 股指期货 -181 亿元。 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 84.74、54.79、25.35 与 14.64 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-11.98%、-7.96%、-5.76%与-5 ...

2025年12月15日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 招商评论 单暂时止盈。 风险提示：中美贸易摩擦反复，美联储货币政策意外转向 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 市场表现：周五夜盘铜价震荡偏弱运行。 | | | | | 基本面：周五美股大幅走弱，市场讨论甲骨文和博通财报不及预期，风险偏好整体下行。供应端，铜矿紧张 | | | | | 格局延续，周度 TC 继续小幅下滑。精铜依然担忧伦敦挤仓，伦敦注销占比维持在 40%。国内精废价差 | 4400 | | | | 元附近，废铜票点上行 1.5%。 | | | | | 交易策略：观望等待买点。 | | | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 市场表现：周五电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.91%，收于 22170 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差-155 | 元/吨， | | | | LME 价格 2875 美元/吨。 | | | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，周度铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | | | 铝 | ...

金融研究 2025年12月12日 星期五 金融期货早班车 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：12 月 11 日，A 股四大股指有所调整，其中上证指数下跌 0.7%，报收 3873.32 点；深成 指下跌 1.27%，报收 13147.39 点；创业板指下跌 1.41%，报收 3163.67 点；科创 50 指数下跌 1.55%， 报收 1325.83 点。市场成交 18,853 亿元，较前日增加 936 亿元。行业板块方面，银行(+0.17%)，国 防军工(-0.24%)，电力设备(-0.25%)涨幅居前；综合(-4.31%)，通信(-3.14%)，房地产(-3.06%)跌幅 居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,030/46/4,377。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-333、-231、170、394 亿元，分别变动-274、-89、+144、+220 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 89.2、67.09、29.38 与 14.43 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-12.2%、-9.47%、-6.46% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Different commodities have different market trends and investment suggestions based on their specific supply - demand situations and external factors [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market price first declined then rose, approaching $4300/ounce. Fundamentals include an increase in US initial jobless claims, Fed's plan to buy short - term Treasuries, and changes in gold inventories. Suggested to go long [1]. - **Silver**: Overseas market is tight, but domestic inventory has been accumulating. Suggested to take profit on long positions [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Price hit a new high. Supply of copper ore is tight, and suggested to buy on dips [2]. - **Aluminum**: Price of the main contract decreased slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is slightly decreasing. Expected price to oscillate with an upward bias [2]. - **Alumina**: Price of the main contract decreased. Some alumina plants are under maintenance, and electrolytic aluminum plants operate at high load. Before large - scale production cuts, spot price is under pressure, and beware of technical rebounds [2]. - **Silicon**: Price of the main contract increased slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is in a state of anti - involution. Social inventory has been slightly accumulating. Suggested to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Price of the main contract increased. Supply is increasing, and demand is decreasing. Expected to maintain inventory reduction in December, but the shortage is narrowing. Suggested to wait and see [3]. - **Polysilicon**: Price of the main contract increased. Production is stable, and demand is weakening. Follow the impact of new delivery brands on the market [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: Price of the main contract decreased. Supply and demand are weak, and there is a significant structural differentiation. Suggested to wait and see and close previous positions [4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: Price of the main contract decreased. Supply and demand are weak, and the market is in a forward - discount structure. Suggested to wait and see and close previous positions [5]. - **Coking Coal**: Price of the main contract decreased. Supply and demand are weak, and the futures valuation is high. Suggested to wait and see and close previous positions [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybean price rose slightly. Supply has a slight reduction in the near - term and large supply in the long - term. Demand has strong US soybean crushing and uncertain exports. Trade the expectation of South American bumper harvest, and domestic market is near - strong and far - weak. Medium - term depends on tariff policy and production [6]. - **Corn**: Futures price is weak, and spot price has fallen. Inventory is low, and there is a short - term supply shortage. However, downstream demand may decline. Spot price is expected to fall, and futures price will oscillate downwards [6]. - **Edible Oils**: Malaysian palm oil price fell. Supply is in seasonal decline, and demand is decreasing. There is no major contradiction in the short - term, and pay attention to production and biodiesel policy [7]. - **Cotton**: US cotton price oscillates narrowly, and domestic cotton price rises. US cotton export sales decline, and Brazilian cotton production is expected to decrease. Domestic textile mills plan to replenish inventory, and high - count yarn sales are good. Suggested to buy on dips [7]. - **Eggs**: Futures price is weak, and spot price is stable. Laying hen inventory is decreasing, and the market is in a state of balance. Futures price is expected to oscillate [7]. - **Pigs**: Futures price is weak, and spot price varies regionally. Demand is expected to increase seasonally, and supply pressure is relieved. Futures price is expected to oscillate [7]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Price of the main contract decreased. Supply is increasing, and demand is seasonally weakening. Social inventory is at a high level. Suggested to short or do reverse arbitrage [8]. - **Glass**: Price of the main contract decreased. Price is falling, and production cuts are increasing. Inventory is decreasing, and demand is weak. Suggested to do reverse arbitrage [8][9]. - **Soda Ash**: Price of the main contract decreased. New plants are put into production, and price is falling. Supply is increasing, and inventory is at a high level. Suggested to short or do reverse arbitrage [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Fed's third rate cut this year has influenced the commodity futures market. Different commodities have different market performances, fundamentals, and trading strategies due to various factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and inventory fluctuations [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals Gold - Market performance: After the Fed's third rate cut this year, precious metal prices first declined and then rose, with the silver price approaching $62 per ounce [1]. - Fundamentals: The Fed announced the third rate cut this year and the purchase of short - term bonds. Powell's speech was considered dovish, and there were internal voting differences in the FOMC. Domestic gold ETFs had outflows, and inventories in different markets showed different changes [1]. - Trading strategy: As the Fed cut rates as expected, gold prices regained strength, so it is recommended to go long. For silver, the overseas market is tight, but domestic inventories have been accumulating for many days, so it is recommended to take profits in long positions temporarily [1]. Silver - Market trends are affected by the same Fed rate - cut event. The overseas market is tight, while domestic inventories have been increasing [1]. - The trading strategy is related to the inventory situation, suggesting taking profits in long positions temporarily [1]. Base Metals Copper - Market performance: Copper prices oscillated strongly yesterday [2]. - Fundamentals: Domestic market sentiment improved due to discussions on bond extension and mortgage贴息. The CPI and PPI continued to weaken. The Fed's dovish rate cut and bond - buying plan also had an impact. The supply - side copper mine shortage will be difficult to change in the medium term, and the demand - side showed certain trading prices [2]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.73% compared to the previous trading day, and there were corresponding price differences and LME prices [2]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. On the demand side, the weekly aluminum product start - up rate declined slightly [2]. - Trading strategy: Both long and short positions decreased, and the aluminum price retreated from a high level. However, the favorable macro - environment and low inventory provided support, so it is expected that the price will maintain a range - bound oscillation [2]. Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 2.71% compared to the previous trading day, and there was a corresponding price difference [2]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, some alumina plants started maintenance, and the operating capacity decreased, but there was no large - scale production reduction. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - Trading strategy: Before large - scale production reduction occurs, the spot price will continue to decline under pressure. Be cautious of technical rebounds in the futures market due to the concentrated stop - profit of short positions [2][3]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: On Wednesday morning, it opened flat and oscillated narrowly throughout the day. The main 01 contract price decreased, the position decreased, the variety's settled funds decreased, and the warehouse receipt volume increased [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the number of open furnaces decreased this week, mainly in Sichuan. Social inventories increased slightly, and warehouse receipt inventories also increased. On the demand side, the polysilicon and organic silicon industries were promoting anti - involution, and the production and start - up rates of related industries showed certain trends [3]. - Trading strategy: The current supply - demand is stable, but social inventories have increased slightly for three consecutive weeks. There may be further production cuts in the southwest, and environmental protection disturbances need to be monitored in the northwest. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: Affected by news, the LC2605 contract price increased [3]. - Fundamentals: The spot price of Australian spodumene concentrate increased. The supply showed certain production trends, and the demand of related industries such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials was expected to change. The inventory situation showed a trend of destocking, but the shortage degree was narrowing [3]. - Trading strategy: Currently, there is a situation of strong reality and weak seasonal expectations. The short - term upward price drive is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to inventory data and downstream inventory trends. It is recommended to consider selling call options with high implied volatility or shorting on rallies [3]. Polysilicon - Market performance: On Wednesday morning, it rushed up and then oscillated narrowly throughout the day. The main 01 contract price increased, the position decreased, the variety's settled funds decreased, and the warehouse receipt volume increased [3]. - Fundamentals: The weekly production was stable, and the industry inventory increased slightly this week. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells declined, and the downstream production plan in December decreased significantly compared to the previous month. The new photovoltaic installation in October had certain changes, and the policy implementation was expected to put pressure on the fourth - quarter photovoltaic installation [3]. - Trading strategy: After the Guangzhou Futures Exchange added two new delivery brands on Friday, it is expected that the main contract price will first return to the core spot trading range. It is necessary to focus on the new brands' production capacity, supply stability, and product quality to judge their long - term impact on the market [3]. Tin - Market performance: Tin prices oscillated strongly yesterday [4]. - Fundamentals: Domestic market sentiment improved, the CPI and PPI continued to weaken, and the Fed's dovish rate cut and bond - buying plan had an impact. The supply - side tin mine shortage continued, and the demand - side showed certain premium and inventory trends. There was also new information about the war in the Congo tin - producing area [4]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips [4]. Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3108 yuan per ton, up 24 yuan from the previous night's closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: The building material apparent demand decreased in different statistical calibers, and the production also decreased. The steel supply - demand was weak, and there was significant structural differentiation. Rebar futures had a large discount and low valuation, while hot - rolled coil futures' discount was basically flat and the valuation was high. Steel mills continued to lose money, and production may continue to decline slightly [5]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to close short positions and try to go long on the rebar 2605 contract, with the RB05 reference range of 3080 - 3130 [5]. Iron Ore - Market performance: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 767 yuan per ton, up 8.5 yuan from the previous night's closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: The arrival volume of iron ore decreased, and the shipment volume from Australia and Brazil increased. The iron ore supply - demand was weak, and the iron water production decreased significantly. The fourth - round coke price increase failed, and the first - round price cut was implemented and the second - round was proposed. Steel mills' profits were poor, and future blast furnace production may decline steadily. The supply was in line with seasonal rules and slightly increased year - on - year. The iron ore maintained a forward discount structure but with a relatively low absolute level, and the valuation was moderately high [5]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to try to go long on the iron ore 2605 contract, with the I05 reference range of 750 - 780 [5]. Coking Coal - Market performance: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1078 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan from the previous night's closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: The iron water production decreased significantly, and steel mills' profits deteriorated. The first - round price cut was implemented, and the second - round was proposed. The inventory at each supply - side link was differentiated, and the overall inventory level was moderate. The futures were at a premium to the spot, and the forward premium structure was maintained, with a relatively high futures valuation [5]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to try to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract, with the JM05 reference range of 1060 - 1100 [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market performance: The overnight CBOT soybean price rose slightly [8]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, there was a slight near - term production reduction, and the long - term South American supply was expected to be large. On the demand side, the US soybean crushing was strong, and the export was still in a game. The global supply - demand was improving marginally but still in a loose state [8]. - Trading strategy: The US soybean price was weak, reflecting the expectation of a South American bumper harvest. The domestic market was strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, and the medium - term situation depends on the tariff policy and production in the producing areas [8]. Corn - Market performance: The corn futures price was weak, and the spot price was falling rapidly [8]. - Fundamentals: The national corn channel inventory was low, and there was a need for inventory building. The short - term procurement was concentrated in the northeast, causing logistics tension. The rising spot price intensified farmers' reluctance to sell, resulting in a short - term supply shortage. However, the continuous rise in corn prices increased the losses of downstream deep - processing enterprises, and the feed - end procurement enthusiasm would decline after continuous inventory replenishment. The short - term spot price is expected to decline gradually [8]. - Trading strategy: As the spot price weakens, the futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [8]. Oils and Fats - Market performance: The Malaysian palm oil futures price fell yesterday due to a negative report [8]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the estimated November production in Malaysia decreased by 5% month - on - month, entering the seasonal production reduction period. On the demand side, the estimated November exports decreased by 28% month - on - month. Overall, the near - term Malaysian palm oil inventory continued to accumulate, and the long - term was in the seasonal production reduction period [8]. - Trading strategy: There are no major contradictions in the short - term, with a weak seasonal production reduction and differentiation among oil varieties. It is necessary to pay attention to future production and biodiesel policies [8]. Cotton - Market performance: The US cotton futures price started to rebound, and the international crude oil price stopped falling and rebounded [8]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, the US cotton planting and harvesting areas in 25/26 had certain data, and the Turkey's cotton import volume in October decreased. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated upward, with strong buying support below. Spinning enterprises adjusted their raw material procurement strategies, planning to replenish inventory before the Chinese New Year, and the high - count yarn sales were good [8]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips, with a strategy based on the 13700 - 14000 yuan per ton range [8]. Eggs - Market performance: The egg futures price was weak, and the spot price was stable [8]. - Fundamentals: The number of laying hens in production decreased, the enthusiasm for culling decreased, and the capacity reduction slowed down. The market sales were average, and traders mainly purchased on a need - to - buy basis, with increasing wait - and - see sentiment and accumulating inventory. The rising vegetable price supported the egg price, and currently, there is no major supply - demand contradiction, so the egg price is expected to oscillate [8]. - Trading strategy: Due to the lack of major supply - demand contradictions, the futures price is expected to oscillate [8]. Pigs - Market performance: The pig futures price fell, and the spot price rose slightly [8]. - Fundamentals: The demand is expected to increase seasonally, and the supply - demand pressure has eased compared to the previous period. Before the Winter Solstice, there will be a concentrated slaughter in the breeding sector, with weak pig prices in the first half of the month. As the demand continues to increase later, the pig price is expected to stop falling and rebound. It is necessary to pay attention to the recent slaughter volume changes [8]. - Trading strategy: Due to the seasonal increase in demand, the futures price is expected to oscillate [8]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market performance: The main LLDPE contract fell slightly yesterday. The low - price spot price in North China was 6530 yuan per ton, the 01 contract basis was stable, the market trading was average, the overseas US dollar price fell slightly, and the import window was closed [10]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, new production facilities were put into operation, some facilities reduced production or stopped, and the domestic supply pressure eased. The import window remained closed, and the future import volume is expected to decrease slightly. Overall, the domestic supply pressure increased but at a slower pace. On the demand side, the current downstream agricultural film is in the off - season, and the demand decreased month - on - month, while the demand in other fields remained stable [10]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the industrial chain inventory decreased slightly, the basis was weak, the supply - demand was weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term as it enters the delivery month, with the upside space significantly restricted by the import window. In the long - term, the new production capacity will decrease in the first half of next year, and the supply - demand pattern will improve. It is recommended to buy the far - month contract on dips [10]. PP - Market performance: The main PP contract fell slightly yesterday. The PP spot price in East China was 6150 yuan per ton, the 01 contract basis was stable, the overall market trading was average, the overseas US dollar price fell slightly, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [10]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, in the short - term, new production facilities were still being put into operation, some facilities unexpectedly stopped, and the domestic supply gradually increased, and the supply pressure in the market increased. The export window was open. On the demand side, the downstream start - up rate decreased month - on - month, and the national subsidy this year over - exploited part of the fourth - quarter demand [10]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the industrial chain inventory decreased slightly, the supply - demand was weak, the basis was weak, and due to the repeated situation in Russia - Ukraine, it is expected that the futures price will still oscillate weakly as it enters the delivery month, with the upside space significantly restricted by the import window. In the long - term, the new production facilities will decrease in the first half of next year, and the supply - demand pattern will improve. It is recommended to seize the opportunity to buy the far - month contract on dips [10]. Crude Oil - Market performance: Oil prices weakened again yesterday. The US and Ukraine held talks on a peace proposal, and if a peace agreement is reached, the risk premium may be reversed, and the support for oil prices will be broken. The EIA weekly report showed that the US crude oil inventory drawdown was lower than expected, the gasoline and diesel inventories increased more than expected, and the EIA raised the US annual supply forecast by 20,000 barrels per day, indicating strong US supply resilience [10]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, due to US sanctions on Russia, the Russian oil production and exports in December need to be monitored, and the impact of the US - Venezuela military conflict on Venezuelan exports also needs attention. OPEC+ plans to nominally increase production by 130,000 - 140,000 barrels per day per month in December, but the actual monthly increase is expected to be less than 100,000 barrels per day. At the same time, the increased production in the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Norway continues to be released, and the supply pressure is still large. On the demand side, the refinery start - up rates in Europe and the US have fully recovered, but the terminal demand is still in the off - season. The OECD oil product inventory is higher than the five - year average, and both water and land inventories have accumulated [10]. - Trading strategy: The probability of supply surplus is high at the end of the year and in Q1, and crude oil should still be used as a short - position allocation. It is possible to wait for a premium due to geopolitical events and then short on rallies [10]. Styrene - Market performance: The main EB contract fell slightly yesterday. The spot price in East China was 6500 yuan per ton, and the market trading atmosphere was average. The overseas US dollar price rose slightly, and the import window was still closed [10]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the pure benzene inventory is at a normal - to - high level, and the future pure benzene supply - demand is still weak, with a large overall contradiction. The styrene inventory is at a normal - to - high level, and short - term maintenance increased, with a marginal improvement in supply - demand. On the demand side, the finished - product inventory of downstream enterprises is still at a high level, the demand is in the off - season, the start - up rate decreased month - on - month, and the national subsidy over - exploited part of the future demand [10][11]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the pure benzene inventory increased slightly, the supply - demand was weak, the valuation was low, and the overall contradiction was still large; the styrene inventory decreased slightly, was at a normal - to - high level, the basis was stable, the supply - demand weakened with the resumption of facilities, and due to the repeated situation in Russia - Ukraine, it is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short - term, with the upside space restricted by the import window. In the medium - to - long -

股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 118.24、90.19、34.23 与 14.04 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-15.35%、-12.12%、-7.17%与-4.52%，三年期历史分位数分别为 14%、14%、15%及 21%。 交易策略：中长期，我们维持做多经济的判断，当下以股指做多头替代有一定超额，推荐逢低配置各 品种远期合约。 金融研究 2025年12月11日 星期四 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：12 月 10 日，A 股四大股指涨跌不一，其中上证指数下跌 0.23%，报收 3900.5 点；深成 指上涨 0.29%，报收 13316.42 点；创业板指下跌 0.02%，报收 3209 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.03%， 报收 1346.7 点。市场成交 17,916 亿元，较前日减少 1,261 亿元。行业板块方面，房地产(+2.53%)， 商贸零售(+1.97%)，社会服务(+1.22%)涨幅居前；银行(-1.58%)，电力设备(-0.87%)，计算机(-0.63%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IC>IM>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,433 ...

金融研究 2025年12月10日 星期三 交易策略：中长期，我们维持做多经济的判断，当下以股指做多头替代有一定超额，推荐逢低配置各 品种远期合约。 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：12 月 9 日，A 股四大股指涨跌不一，其中上证指数下跌 0.37%，报收 3909.52 点；深成 指下跌 0.39%，报收 13277.36 点；创业板指上涨 0.61%，报收 3209.6 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.27%， 报收 1347.11 点。市场成交 19,177 亿元，较前日减少 1,339 亿元。行业板块方面，综合(+3.45%)， 通信(+2.23%)，电子(+0.78%)涨幅居前；有色金属(-3.03%)，钢铁(-2.47%)，房地产(-2.1%)跌幅居 前。从市场强弱看，IF>IM>IH>IC，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,305/90/4,057。沪深两市，机构、主力、 大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-157、-203、48、312 亿元，分别变动-216、-151、+86、+281 亿 元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 109.98、82.53、30.22 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, industrial silicon, carbonates, polysilicon, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. The overall market shows a complex and diverse situation, with different trends and influencing factors in each sector. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, precious metal prices strengthened. The international silver price broke through the $60 mark, and the domestic Shanghai silver reached 14,000 yuan, hitting a new high. [1] - **Fundamentals**: JOLTS report shows a more than 4% month - on - month decline in monthly recruitment, and layoff numbers rose to 1.85 million. The "little non - farm" ADP improved, with private enterprises adding an average of 4,750 jobs per week. There were changes in gold and silver inventories in different regions and exchanges. [1] - **Trading Strategies**: Before the interest - rate meeting, it is recommended to take partial profits on gold and wait for buying opportunities at lower support levels. For silver, due to a continuous increase in domestic inventories, it is recommended to take profits on long positions. [1] Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices oscillated weakly yesterday. [2] - **Fundamentals**: Approaching the interest - rate hike, the U.S. Treasury yield strengthened, and the U.S. dollar was relatively strong. The supply of copper ore remained tight. [2] - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see before the interest - rate cut is implemented. [2] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 2.24% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 21,775 yuan/ton. [2] - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintained high - load production, with a slight increase in operating capacity. The weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased slightly. [2] - **Trading Strategies**: Both long and short positions reduced. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range due to a warm macro - environment and low inventories. [2] Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 1.51% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 2,546 yuan/ton. [2] - **Fundamentals**: Some alumina plants started maintenance, with a decline in operating capacity, but no large - scale production cuts occurred. Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production. [2] - **Trading Strategies**: Before large - scale production cuts occur, futures and spot prices will continue to be under downward pressure. However, since the current price has reached the 2,500 - yuan support level, beware of technical rebounds in the market. [2] Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday morning, it opened flat and then dropped significantly following the coking coal trend. The main 01 contract closed at 8,340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 335 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. [3] - **Fundamentals**: The number of open furnaces decreased by 19 this week, mainly in Sichuan. Social inventories increased slightly, and warehouse - receipt inventories also increased slightly. The polysilicon and organic silicon industries are promoting anti - involution. [3] - **Trading Strategies**: The current supply and demand are stable, but social inventories have increased slightly for three consecutive weeks. Southwest regions may further cut production, and environmental protection disturbances in the northwest need attention. It is recommended to wait and see. [3] Carbonates - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 92,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,040 yuan, with a closing price decrease of 2.1%. [3] - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of Australian spodumene concentrate decreased by $5/ton. Supply increased slightly last week, and demand in some sectors is expected to decline in December. It is expected to continue de - stocking in December, but the shortage situation will ease. [3] - **Trading Strategies**: Given the strong current situation and weak seasonal expectations, the short - term upward price drive is limited. It is recommended to consider selling high - IV call options or shorting on rallies. [3] Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday morning, it opened flat and oscillated upward throughout the day. The main 01 contract closed at 55,610 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,065 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. [3] - **Fundamentals**: Weekly production remained stable. Industry inventories increased slightly this week. Demand in downstream sectors decreased in December. The "136 - document" mechanism electricity price policy may put pressure on photovoltaic installations in the fourth quarter. [3] - **Trading Strategies**: It is expected that the main contract price will first return to the core spot trading range of 53,000 - 55,000 yuan. Follow - up attention should be paid to the actual production capacity release, supply stability, and delivery quality of the two new delivery brands. [3] Black Industries Rebar - **Market Performance**: The rebar main 2605 contract closed at 3,084 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. [5] - **Fundamentals**: Steel inventory decreased significantly, and the demand - supply situation of steel is weak with significant structural differentiation. Rebar futures are at a large discount, and the valuation is low. [5] - **Trading Strategies**: Hold short positions. The reference range for RB05 is 3,040 - 3,100 yuan. [5] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The iron ore main 2605 contract closed at 758.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. [5] - **Fundamentals**: Iron ore supply and demand are weak. The iron ore market shows a forward - discount structure, and the valuation is moderately high. [5] - **Trading Strategies**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 740 - 770 yuan. [5] Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The coking coal main 2605 contract closed at 1,083 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. [5] - **Fundamentals**: The iron - making output decreased, and the profit of steel mills deteriorated. The coking coal market shows a forward - premium structure, and the futures valuation is high. [5] - **Trading Strategies**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for JM05 is 1,060 - 1,100 yuan. [5] Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans continued to decline, trading on the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America. [6] - **Fundamentals**: The supply side has a slight near - term reduction, and a large - scale supply is expected in the long - term in South America. The demand side shows strong U.S. soybean crushing, and exports are still in a game. [6] - **Trading Strategies**: U.S. soybeans are weak, trading on the expectation of a South American bumper harvest. The domestic market will follow the cost side in the short - term, and the medium - term trend depends on tariff policy progress and production in the producing areas. [6] Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices are weaker in the near - term than in the far - term, and most spot prices are stable with a few decreasing. [7] - **Fundamentals**: National corn channel inventories are low, and there is a need to build inventories. However, continuous price increases have led to increased losses in downstream deep - processing and reduced procurement enthusiasm in the feed sector. [7] - **Trading Strategies**: The spot price in the Northeast is weakening, and futures prices are expected to oscillate downward. [7] Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market closed slightly higher yesterday. [7] - **Fundamentals**: The supply side shows a 4% month - on - month decrease in Malaysian palm oil production in November, and the demand side shows a 20% month - on - month decrease in exports. [7] - **Trading Strategies**: The P contract is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short - term, trading on the seasonal factor. Pay attention to future production and biodiesel policies. [7] Cotton - **Market Performance**: U.S. cotton futures prices rebounded after a decline, and international crude oil prices continued to fall. [7] - **Fundamentals**: The U.S. Department of Agriculture slightly adjusted the global cotton production and increased the ending inventory in the 25/26 season. In China, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated narrowly with strong buying support. [7] - **Trading Strategies**: Buy on dips, with a strategy in the range of 13,600 - 13,900 yuan/ton. [7] Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices are weak, while spot prices are rising. [7] - **Fundamentals**: The number of laying hens in stock is decreasing, and the de - stocking speed has slowed down. The market is in a state of general sales, and inventories are accumulating. [7] - **Trading Strategies**: With little supply - demand contradiction, futures prices are expected to oscillate. [7] Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices rose slightly. [7] - **Fundamentals**: Demand is expected to increase seasonally, and the supply - demand pressure has eased. Pay attention to the change in slaughter volume recently. [7] - **Trading Strategies**: With seasonal demand increase, futures prices are expected to oscillate. [7] Energy Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, the LLDPE main contract continued to decline slightly. The spot price in North China is 6,530 yuan/ton, and the basis is stable. [8] - **Fundamentals**: The supply side shows that new device production and some device shutdowns have slowed the domestic supply pressure. The demand side is in the off - season for agricultural films, and demand has weakened. [9] - **Trading Strategies**: In the short - term, the market is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will improve next year, and it is recommended to buy far - month contracts on dips. [9] PVC - **Market Performance**: V01 closed at 4,367, a 1% decrease. [9] - **Fundamentals**: PVC prices continued to fall, and the basis weakened. Supply increased, and demand decreased seasonally. Social inventories are at a high level. [9] - **Trading Strategies**: With weak supply - demand, it is recommended to do reverse arbitrage. [9] Glass - **Market Performance**: fg01 closed at 980, a 2% decrease. [9] - **Fundamentals**: Glass production has decreased significantly, and prices are temporarily stable. Inventories have decreased, and downstream demand is weak. [9] - **Trading Strategies**: With weak supply - demand, it is recommended to do reverse arbitrage. [9] PP - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, the PP main contract continued to decline slightly. The spot price in East China is 6,150 yuan/ton, and the basis is stable. [9] - **Fundamentals**: The supply side shows an increase in domestic supply, and the demand side shows weak downstream start - up rates. [9] - **Trading Strategies**: In the short - term, the market is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will improve next year, and it is recommended to buy far - month contracts on dips. [9] Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, oil prices weakened again due to potential peace agreements. [9] - **Fundamentals**: The supply side shows large supply pressure, and the demand side is in the off - season. Inventories are accumulating. [9] - **Trading Strategies**: There is a high probability of supply surplus at the end of the year and in Q1. It is recommended to short crude oil and wait for geopolitical events to provide premiums before shorting at high prices. [9] Styrene - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, the EB main contract oscillated slightly. The spot price in East China is 6,600 yuan/ton. [10] - **Fundamentals**: The supply side shows high inventories of pure benzene and styrene, and the demand side shows weak downstream demand. [10] - **Trading Strategies**: In the short - term, the market is expected to oscillate. In the medium - term, it is recommended to buy styrene on dips or do pure benzene reverse arbitrage and buy styrene profit on dips. [10] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa01 closed at 1,126, a 1.2% decrease. [10] - **Fundamentals**: New soda ash plants have been put into production, and prices have fallen. Inventories are at a high level, and downstream demand is weak. [10] - **Trading Strategies**: With weak supply - demand, it is recommended to do reverse arbitrage. [10]

金融研究 2025年12月9日 星期二 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 股指期货 市场表现：12 月 8 日，A 股四大股指走强，其中上证指数上涨 0.54%，报收 3924.08 点；深成指上 涨 1.39%，报收 13329.99 点；创业板指上涨 2.6%，报收 3190.27 点；科创 50 指数上涨 1.86%， 报收 1350.8 点。市场成交 20,516 亿元，较前日增加 3,127 亿元。行业板块方面，通信(+4.79%)， 综合(+3.03%)，电子(+2.6%)涨幅居前；煤炭(-1.43%)，石油石化(-0.84%)，食品饮料(-0.78%)跌幅 居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 3,407/182/1,863。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 60、-52、-38、31 亿元，分别变动-21、+11、+105、-95 亿元。 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 119.45、81.97、24.35 与 9.96 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-14.37%、-10.2%、-4.7%与-2.95%，三年期历史分位数分别为 ...