1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The precious metals market continues to oscillate at a high level, with the unexpected weakness of PPI further boosting the expectation of interest rate cuts. The logic of de - dollarization remains unchanged, and there are opportunities for long - positions in gold and short - term long - positions in silver [2]. - In the base metals market, copper prices have rebounded, and it is advisable to buy on dips; the electrolytic aluminum market is expected to be oscillatingly strong, and it is recommended to buy on dips; the alumina market is expected to be oscillatingly weak, and it is advisable to wait and see; zinc and lead are suitable for range trading; industrial silicon is expected to oscillate between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton; it is recommended to wait and see for lithium carbonate; polysilicon can focus on the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity; and it is advisable to buy on dips for tin [2][3][4]. - In the black industry, it is recommended to hold long - positions for rebar, wait and see for iron ore, and stop loss for short - positions in coking coal [5]. - In the agricultural products market, soybeans and soybean meal are expected to oscillate; corn futures are expected to oscillate and decline; it is advisable to short futures and sell call options for sugar; it is recommended to buy on dips for cotton; wait and see for logs; palm oil is expected to be short - term weak; eggs are expected to be short - term strong in spot and oscillating in futures; and it is recommended to wait and see for pigs [6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, LLDPE and PP are expected to be short - term oscillating and long - term supply - demand to be loose, and it is advisable to short far - month contracts or conduct month - spread reverse spreads; methanol has a weak reality and strong expectation; it is advisable to short crude oil on rallies; and it is advisable to short far - month contracts or short styrene profit on rallies for styrene [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: The market continues to oscillate at a high level. The US PPI in August was - 0.1% month - on - month, lower than the expected 0.3%. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond auction decreased significantly. Domestic gold ETF funds continued to flow in slightly. It is recommended to go long on gold [2]. - **Silver**: It followed gold's sharp rise. As it entered the US critical minerals list, it faces the threat of increased tariffs, with short - term long - position opportunities [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price rebounded to above 80,000 yuan and $10,000. The supply of copper ore is tight, and it is advisable to buy on dips [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The price increased by 0.34% compared with the previous trading day. The supply is stable, and downstream consumption is recovering. It is expected to be oscillatingly strong, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Alumina**: The price decreased by 2.43% compared with the previous trading day. The supply pressure is increasing, and it is expected to be oscillatingly weak. It is advisable to wait and see [2][3]. - **Zinc**: The price increased by 0.36% compared with the previous trading day. The supply is high, and the consumption peak season expectation has not been fulfilled. It is suitable for range trading and short - positions on rallies [3]. - **Lead**: The price decreased by 0.65% compared with the previous trading day. The supply is tightened, and the consumption is weak. It is suitable for range - bound trading [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price rebounded. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving slightly. It is expected to oscillate between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price decreased by 3.0%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is also increasing. It is recommended to wait and see due to uncertain market news [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The price increased slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand from the photovoltaic industry is uncertain. It can focus on the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity [4]. - **Tin**: The price rose significantly. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is driven by the semiconductor industry. It is advisable to buy on dips [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the 2601 contract increased. The supply and demand of building materials are weakly neutral, and the plate demand is stable. It is recommended to hold long - positions [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the 2601 contract increased. The supply and demand are neutrally strong, but the marginal situation is slightly weakening. It is advisable to wait and see [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the 2601 contract increased. The supply and demand are weakening, and the futures valuation is high. It is recommended to stop loss for short - positions [5][6]. Agricultural Products Market - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybeans are oscillating. The near - term US soybean production is shrinking, and the far - term South American production is expected to increase. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [6]. - **Corn**: The 2511 contract is weakly operating. The wheat price suppresses the corn price, and the new crop is expected to increase in production. The futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [6]. - **Sugar**: The 01 contract increased slightly. The Brazilian sugar production is high, and the domestic syrup control is being relaxed. It is advisable to short futures and sell call options [6]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price rebounded. The Brazilian cotton harvest progress is slightly behind, and the Indian cotton quality may be affected by weather. The domestic cotton price stopped falling and rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - **Logs**: The 11 contract increased slightly. The spot price is stable, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is advisable to wait and see [6][7]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price decreased. The supply is in the seasonal increase period, and the demand is decreasing. It is short - term weak [7]. - **Eggs**: The 2511 contract is weakly operating. The demand may increase seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [7]. - **Pigs**: The 2511 contract rebounded slightly. The supply is abundant, and the consumption is gradually recovering. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry - **LLDPE**: The price is oscillating slightly. The domestic supply is increasing, and the demand is improving. It is short - term oscillating, and it is advisable to short far - month contracts or conduct month - spread reverse spreads in the long - term [8]. - **Methanol**: The price increased by 0.38%. The cost is supported, the supply is sufficient, and the demand is not in the peak season. It has a weak reality and strong expectation [8][9]. - **PP**: The price is oscillating slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the peak season. It is short - term oscillatingly weak, and it is advisable to short far - month contracts or conduct month - spread reverse spreads in the long - term [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The price strengthened slightly. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weakening. It is advisable to short on rallies [9]. - **Styrene**: The price is oscillating slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is short - term oscillatingly weak, and it is advisable to short far - month contracts or short styrene profit on rallies in the long - term [10].

金融研究 2025年9月10日 星期三 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 | | 市场表现：9 月 日，A 股四大股指有所下跌，其中上证指数下跌 0.51%，报收 点；深成指 9 3807.29 | | --- | --- | | | 下跌 1.23%，报收 12510.6 点；创业板指下跌 2.23%，报收 2867.97 点；科创 50 指数下跌 2.38%， | | | 报收 1245.53 点。市场成交 21,521 亿元，较前日减少 3,111 亿元。行业板块方面，房地产(+1.64%)， | | | 综合(+0.94%)，银行(+0.83%)涨幅居前；电子(-2.7%)，计算机(-2.07%)，通信(-1.91%)跌幅居前。 | | | 从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,298/118/4,009。沪深两市，机构、主力、大 | | 股指期货 | 户、散户全天资金分别净流入-274、-231、103、403 亿元，分别变动-130、-84、+48、+166 亿元。 | | | 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 125.43、115.37、17.06 与 ...

2025年09月10日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | 贵 | 市场表现：贵金属整体继续走强，美国非农数据下修支撑美联储降息预期。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金 | 基本面：以色列袭击位于卡塔尔的哈马斯高层；美国非农年度修正比预期还差，下修 | 91.1 | 万；特朗普表示期 | 属 | 待在接下来的几周里与印度总理莫迪进行会谈；美国最高法院表示将在 | 11 | 月辩论会的第一周听取特朗普灌水 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 按口头辩论。国内黄金 | ETF | 资金流入，COMEX | 黄金库存 | 1210 | 吨，减少 | 1 | 吨；上期所黄金库存 | 44 | 吨，增加 | 1 ...

2025年09月09日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 市场表现：贵金属继续走强，欧洲政治风险发酵。 金 属 基本面：特朗普称准备对俄罗斯实施第二阶段制裁；法国总理下台，日本首相辞职，30 年期国债收益率飙升 至历史高位。国内黄金 ETF 资金流入，COMEX 黄金库存 1211 吨，维持不变；上期所黄金库存 43 吨，维持 不变；伦敦 7 月黄金库存 8774 吨；上期所白银库存 1261 吨，减少 4 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存 1283 吨， 增加 1.7 吨，COMEX 白银库存 16121 吨，增加 30 吨；伦敦 7 月白银库存增加 408 吨至 24196 吨；印度 7 月白银进口约 340 吨左右。全球最大白银 etf--iShares 持有量为 15193 吨，减少 36 吨。 交易策略：美联储独立性受质疑，去美元化逻辑未变，美联储降息概率大增，整体建议黄金做多；白银再次 跟随黄金大涨，随着进入美国关键矿物名单，面临增加关税威胁，短线存在做多机会。 风险提示：贸易战反复，美国经济恢复超预期 基本金属 | | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

金融研究 2025年9月8日 星期一 表 1：股指期现货市场表现 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨跌幅% | 现价 | 涨跌 | 成交量 | 成交额 | 持仓量 | 日增仓量 | 结算价 | 基差 | 基差年化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | | | | 收益率% | | IC2509 | 中证 2509 | 4.41 | 6898.6 | 291.4 | 97724 | 13244334 | 113160 | -12722 | 6876.8 | 15.4 | -5.0 | | IC2510 | 中证 2510 | 4.50 | 6846.2 | 295.0 | 9240 | 1245365 | 12752 | 1067 | 6831.2 | 67.8 | -9.8 | | IC2512 | 中证 2512 | 4.68 | 6738.2 | 301.0 | 47120 | 6236322 | 85904 | -885 | 6719.6 | 175.8 | -9 ...

期货研究报告 | 商品研究 天然橡胶海外供应专题-产量天花板在哪？ 2025年9月4日 • 招商期货-罗鸣 • luoming @cmschina.com.cn • 联系电话： 19854498995 • 执业资格号： Z0021358 来源：ANPRC，招商期货 目录 01 泰国（约35%） 02 印尼（约17%） contents 03 科特迪瓦（约14%） 天然橡胶全球产量分布 期货研究报告 | 商品研究 天然橡胶生产国联合会（简称ANRPC），成立于1970年10月，是政府间社会组织，秘书处位于马来西亚吉隆坡。其宗旨为协调成员国 间天然橡胶生产合作与技术升级，稳定市场价格，成员包括孟加拉国、柬埔寨、中国、印度、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、缅甸、巴布 亚新几内亚、菲律宾、新加坡、斯里兰卡、泰国及越南13国组成。天然橡胶产能供应集中度较高，东南亚的气候和土壤条件非常适 合天然橡胶种植，ANPRC成员国涵盖了全球大部分天然橡胶主产国。近年来，由于科特迪瓦的产量快速增长与东南亚传统生成国的增 长乏力，ANPRC成员国全球天然橡胶产量占比从2010年的88%降至2024年的79%，未来五年可能进一步跌破75%。 0 ...

2025年09月08日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | | | | | 市场表现：贵金属继续走强，非农数据远低于预期引发进一步降息预期。 | | | | | | | | | | 金 | 基本面：8 | | 月非农就业增长意外降温，仅增加 | | | 2.2 万人；6 | | | | 月份的就业数据向下修正至负增长；OPEC"原则 | | | | | 属 | 上同意"10 | | 月再次增产。国内黄金 | | ETF | 资金流入，COMEX | | 黄金库存 | | 1211 | 吨，维持不变；上期所黄金库存 | | | | | 43 | 吨，维持不变；伦敦 | | 7 月黄金库存 | 8774 | 吨；上期所白银库存 | | | 1265 | 吨，增加 | 5 吨，金交所白银库存上周 | | | | | 库存 | 1283 吨，增加 | 1.7 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index as a long - term substitute has certain excess returns, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips. The short - term market shows signs of cooling [2]. - With the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium and long term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On September 4th, the four major A - share stock indexes had a significant correction. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.25% to 3765.88 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.83% to 12118.7 points, the ChiNext Index fell 4.25% to 2776.25 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 6.08% to 1226.98 points. Market turnover was 2581.9 billion yuan, an increase of 186.2 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, commerce and retail (+1.63%), beauty care (+1.19%), and banks (+0.79%) led the gains; communications (-8.48%), electronics (-5.08%), and composites (-4.49%) led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IH > IF > IM > IC. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2295/139/2990 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net capital inflows of -39.3 billion, -28.4 billion, 400 million, and 67.3 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -19 billion, -700 million, -2.8 billion, and +22.5 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 97.15, 109.05, 23.21, and 10.67 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were -13.27%, -15.65%, -5.11%, and -3.53% respectively. The three - year historical percentiles were 20%, 6%, 19%, and 24% respectively [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index as a long - term substitute has certain excess returns, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips; the short - term market shows signs of cooling [2]. 3.2 Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On September 4th, the yields of bond futures declined across the board. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.362, a decrease of 0 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.566, a decrease of 1.31 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.708, a decrease of 0.96 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 2.076, a decrease of 1.79 bps [2]. - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2512 contract. For the two - year bond futures, the CTD bond is 250012.IB, with a yield change of +1.75 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.032, and an IRR of 1.56%; for the five - year bond futures, the CTD bond is 250003.IB, with a yield change of +1.15 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.048, and an IRR of 1.62%; for the ten - year bond futures, the CTD bond is 220017.IB, with a yield change of -1.75 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.048, and an IRR of 1.31%; for the thirty - year bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of -1 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.276, and an IRR of 0.73% [2]. - **Funding Situation**: In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 212.6 billion yuan and withdrew 416.1 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 203.5 billion yuan [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium and long term [2]. 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the commodity futures market is complex, with different trends and trading strategies for various commodities. The Fed's policy, economic data, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes are important factors affecting the market [1][2]. - For precious metals, the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut increases, and there are long - term opportunities for gold and short - term opportunities for silver [1]. - In the base metals market, the supply and demand of different metals vary, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed, such as buying aluminum at low prices, temporarily observing alumina, short - selling zinc at high prices, etc. [2]. - In the black industry, the supply - demand relationship of steel products is seasonally weak with obvious structural differentiation, and different trading strategies are given for different varieties [4]. - In the agricultural product market, different commodities have different supply - demand situations, and trading strategies are affected by factors such as tariffs and policies [5][6]. - In the energy and chemical market, the supply - demand patterns of different products are different, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed according to the market situation [7][8][9]. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: The market shows a correction, and overseas long - term interest rates are temporarily stable. The weak US employment data strengthens the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Domestic gold ETF funds flow in, and the inventory of COMEX gold remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long on gold [1]. - **Silver**: It follows the sharp rise of gold. After being included in the US critical minerals list, it faces the threat of increased tariffs, and there are short - term long - trading opportunities [1]. Base Metals - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased. The supply side maintains high - load production, and the demand side has a slight increase in the weekly aluminum product start - up rate. It is recommended to buy at low prices [2]. - **Alumina**: The price of the main contract decreased. Some enterprises have roasting furnace overhauls due to environmental protection control on the supply side, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production. It is recommended to temporarily observe [2]. - **Zinc**: The price of the Shanghai zinc contract decreased. The supply increased significantly, and the processing fee jumped, but the consumption entered the off - season, and the inventory increased. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [3]. - **Lead**: The price of the Shanghai lead contract decreased slightly. The supply continued to tighten, and the consumption was flat. It is recommended to conduct interval operations and go long briefly at low prices [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract price increased slightly. The supply side had new furnaces opened, and the demand side had a slight increase in the start - up rate of polysilicon. It is recommended to observe [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract price increased. The supply increased, and the demand side had an unexpected increase in energy - storage battery cell orders. It is expected to continue destocking in September, and it is recommended to observe [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract price increased slightly. The supply is expected to continue to grow in September, and the demand of downstream products is stable. It is recommended to observe [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main contract price increased. The supply - demand of building materials is seasonally weak, and the supply - demand of plates is stable. It is recommended to close short positions and try to go long briefly [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price increased. The supply - demand is neutral and slightly strong, but the margin is slightly weakening. It is recommended to observe [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The main contract price increased. The supply - demand is neutral and slightly strong, and the futures valuation is high. It is recommended to close short positions [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight CBOT soybean closed slightly higher. The near - term US soybean production is shrinking, and the long - term South American production is expected to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the tariff policy [5]. - **Corn**: The corn contract continued to rebound, and the spot price mostly decreased. Affected by factors such as wheat prices and imports, the spot price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to observe [6]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar contract closed down. Internationally, Brazil's high - yield situation is gradually realized, and domestically, the spot price has stabilized. It is recommended to short - sell in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton futures price fluctuated narrowly. Internationally, the Brazilian cotton export volume decreased year - on - year, and domestically, the cotton yarn price was stable. It is recommended to go long at low prices [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price rose. The supply side is in the seasonal production - increasing cycle, and the demand side has improved. It is recommended to trade the long - term tight - supply expectation [6]. - **Eggs**: The egg contract fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price was stable. The demand may increase seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. It is recommended to observe [6]. - **Hogs**: The hog contract continued to decline, and the spot price decreased. The consumption is gradually recovering, and the supply is also increasing. The spot price is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short term. It is recommended to observe [6]. - **Apples**: The main contract price decreased. The price of early - maturing apples is high at the beginning and then low, and the price of late - maturing apples is expected to support the market. It is recommended to observe [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract price fluctuated slightly. The supply side has an increase in domestic production and a decrease in imports, and the demand side is in the peak season of agricultural mulch film. It is recommended to observe in the short term and short - sell in the long term [7]. - **PVC**: The contract price decreased. The supply side has new device production, and the demand side is gradually entering the peak season, but the inventory has accumulated. It is recommended to observe [7]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price continued to fluctuate and closed slightly higher. The raw material price rose, and the inventory continued to decrease. It is recommended to hold long positions [7]. - **Glass**: The contract price remained unchanged. The supply side may have a production resumption, the demand side is in the seasonal destocking cycle, and the inventory has a small increase. It is recommended to observe [8]. - **PP**: The main contract price fluctuated slightly. The supply side has an increase in domestic production and an opening of the export window, and the demand side is in the peak season. It is recommended to short - sell in the long term [8]. - **Crude Oil**: The oil price weakened again. The supply side has an increase in production, and the demand side weakens after the peak season. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [9]. - **Styrene**: The main contract price fluctuated slightly. The supply side is expected to increase, and the demand side has a high inventory of finished products. It is recommended to short - sell in the long term [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The contract price remained unchanged. The supply side's overhauls are ending, and the demand side has a recovery in downstream glass production. It is recommended to observe and wait for macro - guidance [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: The contract price decreased. The supply side's utilization rate is high, and the demand side's non - aluminum demand recovers seasonally. It is recommended to go long [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term view of being bullish on the economy. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips, but there are signs of short - term market cooling [1]. - For bond index futures, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies for the medium and long term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory (1) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On September 3, most of the four major A - share stock indexes pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.16% to 3813.56 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.65% to 12472 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.95% to 2899.37 points, and the STAR 50 Index fell 1.64% to 1306.48 points. Market turnover was 23,957 billion yuan, a decrease of 5,167 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - In terms of industry sectors, the comprehensive, communication, and power equipment sectors led the gains, while national defense and military industry, non - bank finance, and computer sectors led the losses [1]. - From the perspective of market strength, IF>IH>IC>IM. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 822, 44, and 4,559 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 203, - 276, 32, and 447 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +517, +201, - 222, and - 496 billion yuan respectively [1]. - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 131.48, 129.66, 40.03, and 14.19 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 16.89%, - 17.48%, - 8.31%, and - 4.44% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 10%, 3%, 11%, and 21% respectively [1]. (2) Bond Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On September 3, the yields of bond index futures declined. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond fell 1.99bps to 1.351, the five - year bond fell 3.35bps to 1.573, the ten - year bond fell 2.88bps to 1.71, and the thirty - year bond fell 4.11bps to 2.085 [1]. - The CTD bonds, yield changes, net basis, and IRR of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year bond index futures are provided. For example, the CTD bond of the 2 - year bond index futures is 250012.IB, with a yield change of - 1.25bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.019, and an IRR of 1.51% [1]. - In terms of the money market, the central bank's currency injection was 2,291 billion yuan, currency withdrawal was 3,799 billion yuan, and the net withdrawal was 1,508 billion yuan [1]. (3) Economic Data High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [11].