金融研究 2026年2月26日 星期四 金融期货早班车 市场表现：2 月 25 日，国债期货略走弱，活跃合约中，TS 下跌 0.06%，TF 下跌 0.1%，T 下跌 0.13%， TL 下跌 0.47%。 现券：目前活跃合约为 2606 合约，2 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 250024.IB，收益率变动+0.4bps，对应 净基差 0.029，IRR1.41%；5 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 250014.IB，收益率变动+2bps，对应净基差 0.012， IRR1.47%；10 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 250025.IB，收益率变动+1.55bps，对应净基差-0.016，IRR1.56%； 国债期货 30 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 210014.IB，收益率变动+2.5bps，对应净基差-0.013，IRR1.55%。 资金面：公开市场操作方面，央行货币投放 4,095 亿元，货币回笼 4,000 亿元，净投放 95 亿元。 交易策略：短线走势不明朗，建议观望；中长线，风偏上行叠加经济复苏预期，建议 T、TL 逢高套保。 风险提示：货币政策宽松超预期，经济复苏不及预期。 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ...

2026年02月26日 星期四 商品期货早班车 期货研究 | 铝 | 交易策略：加纳将铝土矿原矿禁止出口日期设定在 2030 年，由于加纳占中国铝土矿总进口量不足 1%，相关 | | --- | --- | | | 影响有限。氧化铝基本面仍维持供需宽松格局，但行业减产预期、反内卷政策扰动，将为价格带来潜在的向 | | | 上驱动，盘面上行空间将取决于供需格局的边际变化，预计价格维持震荡偏强。 | | | 风险提示：减产不及预期。 | | | 市场表现：LC2605 收于 152,640 元/吨（+ 3220），收盘价+2.15% | | | 基本面：SMM 澳大利亚锂辉石精矿（CIF 中国）现货报价为 2250 美元/吨，较前日+140 元/吨，SMM 电碳报 | | | 161243（+9218）元/吨，Mysteel 优质碳酸锂晚盘价 165300（+9800）元/吨。供给方面，节前周产量为 20184 | | | 吨，环比-560 吨。SMM 2 81,930 吨，环比-16.3%。需求方面，磷酸铁锂 SMM2 预计 月碳酸锂排产为 月排 | | | 产为 35.4 万吨，环比-10.7%，符合需求季节 ...

市场表现：2 月 24 日，A 股四大股指全线上涨，其中上证指数上涨 0.87%，报收 4117.41 点；深成 指上涨 1.36%，报收 14291.57 点；创业板指上涨 0.99%，报收 3308.26 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.34%， 报收 1465.37 点。市场成交 22,182 亿元，较前日增加 2,192 亿元。行业板块方面，石油石化(+5.53%)， 建筑材料(+3.71%)，基础化工(+3.45%)表现较好；传媒(-3.2%)，计算机(-1.81%)，商贸零售(-1.46%) 表现一般。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,003/87/1,388。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 5、-110、-54、160 亿元，分别变动+146、+93、-122、-116 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 28.77、21.31、24.14 与 3.92 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-4.56%、-3.34%、-6.75%与-1.7%，三年期历史分位数分别为 71%、66%、17%及 34%。 金融研究 交易策略： ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The precious metals market is volatile. Gold is recommended to hold long positions, and silver should be carefully participated in. The copper and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Alumina prices may have potential upward drivers. Lead is recommended to be shorted on rallies, and zinc should be traded within a range. Carbonate lithium prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. Tin is recommended to be bought on dips. For the black industry, it is advisable to wait and see, with radical investors considering short - term long positions in some contracts. In the agricultural product market, different products have different trends and trading strategies. In the energy and chemical industry, different products also have corresponding trading suggestions based on their supply - demand situations [1][2][3][5][6][8]. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: International gold and silver prices fell in the night session yesterday. Gold fell by 5142 dollars/ounce, and silver fell by 1.24% to 87 dollars/ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Trump's "global tariff" took effect on Tuesday, and inflation - related statements were made by Fed officials. Domestic gold ETF had a small inflow, and inventory changes occurred in various markets [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in gold and be cautious in participating in the silver market [1]. Basic Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices strengthened significantly in the night session yesterday [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of copper ore remains tight. Trump's plan to use AI to set reference prices for key minerals may intensify concerns. The demand shows certain characteristics such as spot premiums and post - festival inventory accumulation [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Copper prices may fluctuate in the short term [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 1.53% compared with the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum plants maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream resumption of work, US tariff policies, and overseas production capacity changes [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 0.42% compared with the previous trading day [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Some alumina plants are in the production - reduction and maintenance stage, while electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern is generally loose, but there may be upward drivers, and the upward space depends on the marginal change of the supply - demand pattern [3]. Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: On February 24, the zinc and lead main contracts closed at 24625 yuan/ton and 16670 yuan/ton respectively, with different price changes compared with the previous trading day [3]. - **Fundamentals**: For lead, the processing fee at the mine end is low, production decreased in February, and demand is limited. For zinc, the processing fee is also low, production decreased seasonally, and the supply - demand pattern is still oversupplied [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short lead on rallies and trade zinc within the range of 23500 - 25500 yuan/ton [3]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 164,120 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.52% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The prices of lithium - related products increased. Supply decreased in February, and demand also decreased seasonally. The inventory is expected to be in a tight balance in Q1 [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to concerns about lithium ore export blockades and good expectations for material production in March [3]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices strengthened significantly yesterday [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and there are concerns about Indonesian policies. The demand shows strong premiums and increased warehouse receipts [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips [3]. Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The main contract of rebar 2605 closed at 3030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand contradiction of steel is not significant. The demand for building materials is weak, but supply decreased significantly year - on - year. The demand for plates is stable, and exports are high. There is significant inventory accumulation during the festival [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and radical investors can try short - term long positions in rebar 2605. The reference range for RB05 is 3000 - 3060 [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main contract of iron ore 2605 closed at 743 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton compared with the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of iron ore is neutral. Steel mill profits are poor, and subsequent blast furnace production may decrease slightly. Port inventory is high, and there are structural contradictions [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 735 - 765 [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main contract of coking coal 2605 closed at 1108.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Steel mill profits are poor, and subsequent blast furnace production may decrease slightly. The first round of price increase has been implemented, and there is no subsequent plan. The overall inventory level is neutral, and the futures valuation is high [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and radical investors can try short - term long positions in coking coal 2605. The reference range for JM05 is 1080 - 1140 [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose overnight [6]. - **Fundamentals**: There is an expectation of a bumper harvest in South America. US soybean crushing is strong, and export concerns are alleviated [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans will enter a volatile period, and attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American production realization. The domestic market is also volatile, and attention should be paid to customs policies and South American production [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices continued to rise, and most spot prices increased [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress has exceeded 60%, and the pressure is not large. However, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of ground - stored grain after the temperature rises. Downstream enterprises' inventories are at the same level as the same period, and port inventories are low, but downstream is in a loss state [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: After the Spring Festival, deep - processing enterprises in North China will replenish inventory, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [6]. Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil fell yesterday [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is in the late stage of seasonal production reduction, and the demand decreased in February [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats are weak. The resonance of late - stage seasonal production reduction and biodiesel expectations is weakened. An inverse hedging strategy can be adopted. Attention should be paid to subsequent production and biodiesel policies [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5252 yuan/ton, with a 0% increase [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, the pricing of the northern hemisphere's production increase is completed, and the focus is on Brazil's new - season production expectations. Domestically, the supply is more relaxed, and the inventory will reach a high level after March [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices will fluctuate in the range of 5000 - 5300 yuan/ton [7]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The ICE US cotton futures price rose and then fell overnight, and the international crude oil futures price fluctuated and closed flat. The Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose to a recent high [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Globally, the cotton production is expected to decrease by 3.2% in 26/27, and consumption and exports are expected to increase. In the US, imports from India increased. Domestically, the rising ICE cotton price helps the domestic cotton price strengthen [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips, with a price range of 15000 - 15500 yuan/ton [7]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices are strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, and some spot prices increased [7]. - **Fundamentals**: After the Spring Festival, it is the traditional off - season for egg demand. The overall supply is sufficient, and egg prices are expected to run at a low level [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The demand is weakening, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Industrial customers are advised to pay attention to hedging opportunities on rallies [7]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices continued to fall, and spot prices weakened across the board [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Seasonally, the slaughter volume will increase as the upstream and downstream resume work. The supply is strong and the demand is weak after the Spring Festival, and both futures and spot prices are expected to be weak [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main contract of LLDPE rose slightly yesterday. The spot price in North China is 6640 yuan/ton, and the basis is weak [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure is relieved as there is no new device put into operation in the first half of the year, and some existing devices reduce production or stop. The import window is closed, and the demand is weak currently but will enter the peak season in March and April [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, due to inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, weak basis, and weak supply - demand, the price will fluctuate strongly, and the upward space is limited by the import window. Attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran incident [8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: v05 closed at 4963, an increase of 0.6% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: PVC is suppressed by high inventory, with large supply and low demand as downstream factories have not resumed work. The real estate market is weak [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply - demand is weak, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The CFR China price of PX is 933 dollars/ton, and the spot price of PTA in East China is 5285 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 62 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of PX is at a high level, and attention should be paid to seasonal maintenance. The supply of PTA is at a medium level, and the polyester factory load is at a seasonal low. The overall inventory pressure is not large, and the profit of polyester products has improved [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain the view of long - term allocation of PX and pay attention to buying opportunities. PTA has seasonal inventory accumulation, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern will improve. The processing fee has reached a high level, and appropriate profit - taking is recommended [9]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 closed at 1061, an increase of 1.2% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Glass inventory increased during the holiday, and the price is stable. The supply decreased significantly, and the inventory is at a high level. The downstream is not yet in operation, and the price is affected by macro - expectations [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply is decreasing and the demand is weak, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to buy 09 and sell 01 for a positive spread [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main contract of PP rebounded slightly yesterday. The spot price in East China is 6620 yuan/ton, and the basis is weak. The import window is closed, and the export window is open [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In the short term, the supply pressure increases as new device put - into - operation decreases and some devices stop unexpectedly. The demand is low currently as downstream is on holiday and will resume work after the Lantern Festival [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, due to inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, weak basis, and weak supply - demand, the price will fluctuate. The upward space is limited by the import window. Attention should be paid to the US - Iran incident. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will improve slightly but the contradiction is still large, and it is recommended to short on rallies [9]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The spot price of MEG in East China is 3648 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 86 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure is relieved as some devices are transferred or under maintenance. The import supply decreases. The inventory in some ports in East China has increased to 900,000 tons, and the polyester load is seasonally low. The overall inventory pressure is not large [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Inventory accumulation is expected, and de - stocking may start in March. The current valuation is low, and attention should be paid to phased long - position opportunities [10]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices have been fluctuating recently as the market is waiting for the result of the US - Iran negotiation on the 26th. The current oil price contains a risk premium of about 10 dollars/barrel [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of Russian oil may face pressure due to EU policies, but the loading volume remains stable. The short - term core factor is the US - Iran geopolitical risk. In the medium - term, the production capacity of some countries is continuously released [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The current trading core is the US - Iran geopolitical risk, with high uncertainty. It is recommended to wait for the oil price to reach a high point and buy out - of - the - money put options on SC04 [10]. Benzene and Styrene - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract rose significantly yesterday. The spot price in East China is 7700 yuan/ton, and the overseas price is stable with a slight increase. The import window is closed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The pure benzene inventory is at a normal - to - high level during the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand pattern will improve in February and March. The styrene inventory accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand is weak in February and March. The downstream enterprise inventory is high, and the downstream is on holiday and will resume work after the Lantern Festival [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, pure benzene will fluctuate strongly due to inventory accumulation and marginal improvement in supply - demand and geopolitical factors. Styrene will fluctuate as the inventory is normal, the basis is strong, and the supply increases while the demand decreases [10]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 closed at 1184, an increase of 1.9% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: After the Spring Festival, the inventory of soda ash increased, and the price is stable. The supply is large, and the demand is weak as there is a production - reduction expectation for photovoltaic glass and float glass [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply increases and the demand is weak, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see [10].

2026年02月24日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：春节长假期间，先抑后扬，在 2 月 20 日周五爆发，以伦敦金计价的国际金价单日涨幅超过 2%， | | | 金 | 5200 美元/盎司大关。白银波动更为激烈，但也在春节期间触底反弹，以伦敦银计价的 本周一继续上涨逼近 | | | 属 | 单日涨幅超过 7%，周一价格突破 87 美元/盎司。 | | | | 基本面：本周内，特朗普公开表示"正在考虑对伊朗进行有限军事打击"，叠加此前美军控制委内瑞拉领导人 | | | | 的余波，全球地缘政治溢价再次上升；美国最高法院投票否决了特朗普总统的部分关税政策。然而，特朗普 | | | | 随即宣布将依据其他法律对全球商品加征 10% 的新关税。这种政策的极度不确定性和对全球贸易战的担忧， | | | | 促使避险资金重新涌入黄金；COMEX 黄金库存为 1054.9 吨，-17.2 吨；SPDR 黄金 ETF 持仓为 1078.7 | 吨， | | | +3.1 吨；伦敦黄金库存 1 月底 9155 ...

1. Report Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy, and suggest buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [2] - For treasury bond futures, with the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [2] 3. Summary by Directory (1) Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On February 12, the four major A - share stock indexes rose across the board. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.86%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.32%, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 1.78%. The market turnover was 2.1608 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.1597 trillion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, the comprehensive, electronics, and power equipment sectors performed well, while the beauty care, commercial retail, and textile and apparel sectors performed poorly. From the perspective of market strength, IC>IM>IF>IH, and the number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 2,107, 96, and 3,273 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - investor, and retail funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were 10.1 billion yuan, - 11.3 billion yuan, - 15.3 billion yuan, and 16.5 billion yuan respectively, with changes of + 32.2 billion yuan, + 10 billion yuan, - 19.4 billion yuan, and - 22.8 billion yuan respectively [2] - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts was - 23.17, - 25.23, 2.78, and - 3.27 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of 3.32%, 3.57%, - 0.7%, and 1.27% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 99%, 98%, 58%, and 66% respectively [2] - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium and long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index futures as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [2] (2) Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On February 12, treasury bond futures fluctuated slightly. Among the active contracts, TS decreased by 0.02%, TF remained flat, T increased by 0.02%, and TL decreased by 0.03% [2] - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2603 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 250017.IB, with a yield change of + 0bps, corresponding net basis of 0.02, and IRR of 1.3%. For the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 2500801.IB, with a yield change of - 0.25bps, corresponding net basis of - 0.014, and IRR of 1.68%. For the 10 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 250018.IB, with a yield change of - 1.1bps, corresponding net basis of 0.027, and IRR of 1.23%. For the 30 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 210005.IB, with a yield change of + 0bps, corresponding net basis of 0.028, and IRR of 1.29% [2] - **Funding Situation**: In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 566.5 billion yuan and withdrew 118.5 billion yuan, with a net injection of 448 billion yuan [2] - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium and long term, with the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [2] (3) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that except for infrastructure, the prosperity of all data exceeds the same period in previous years, and the infrastructure prosperity is similar to the same period in previous years [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market is highly volatile. Gold is recommended to hold long - term positions, while silver requires cautious participation [1]. - For base metals, copper and tin suggest waiting for stable buying opportunities. Aluminum is expected to be range - bound, and alumina has upward potential [2][4]. - In the industrial silicon market, the fundamentals show a situation of both weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [4]. - In the black industry, it is recommended to close positions in rebar, iron ore, and coking coal [6]. - In the agricultural products market, soybeans and corn futures are expected to show different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are provided for each [7]. - In the energy and chemical market, different products have different supply - demand situations and trading suggestions, such as short - term weak fluctuations and medium - term improvement opportunities [9][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Last night, precious metals fell rapidly. The Shanghai Gold 2604 contract barely held the 1100 - yuan mark, and the Shanghai Silver 2604 contract fell below the 20000 - yuan mark [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The U.S. Treasury Secretary's decision and concerns about AI investment led to drops in U.S. technology stocks and precious metals. There were changes in gold and silver inventories in various places [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in gold and be cautious with silver [1] Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices weakened significantly yesterday [2]. - **Fundamentals**: U.S. stock market decline, concerns about AI, dollar strengthening, tight copper ore supply, and the Spring Festival off - peak season affecting demand [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for stable buying opportunities [2] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.21% compared with the previous trading day, and the 0 - 3 month spread was - 400 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: High - load production in electrolytic aluminum plants and a slight increase in the weekly aluminum product start - up rate [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be range - bound in the short term [2] Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 1.20% compared with the previous trading day, and the 0 - 3 month spread was - 206 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Some alumina plants entered the production - reduction and rotation maintenance stage, while electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to subsequent maintenance and shutdown situations as the price has upward potential [2] Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price decrease of 0.42% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Stable furnace - opening quantity and an overall start - up rate of 22.36%. Both the polysilicon and organic silicon industries are promoting anti - involution, with expected production declines [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 8800 yuan. Consider short - selling at high prices if the large - scale production reduction is short - term [4] Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: LC2605 was 149,420 yuan/ton (- 840), a closing price decrease of 0.56% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Changes in the prices of lithium - related products, production and inventory changes in the lithium salt industry, and expected production declines in downstream materials [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate [4] Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 49015 yuan/ton, a decrease of 165 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price decrease of 0.43% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Stable weekly production and inventory, changes in the production schedules of downstream products, and positive factors in the demand side [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The main contract is expected to weakly fluctuate between 45000 - 53000 yuan [4] Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices weakened significantly yesterday [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Similar to copper, including U.S. stock market decline, dollar strengthening, and tight tin ore supply, along with a significant increase in domestic warehouse receipts [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for stable buying opportunities [4] Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The rebar main 2605 contract closed at 3056 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Decrease in building material apparent demand and production, weak demand expectations but limited supply, and certain technical support for prices [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close positions. The reference range for RB05 is 3040 - 3100 yuan [6] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The iron ore main 2605 contract closed at 759.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Changes in iron ore inventory and molten iron production, neutral supply - demand situation, and certain technical support for prices [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close positions. The reference range for I05 is 750 - 780 yuan [6] Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The coking coal main 2605 contract closed at 1121 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Changes in molten iron production, weak supply - demand situation, and certain technical support for prices [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close positions. The reference range for JM05 is 1090 - 1140 yuan [6] Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans are short - term strong, reflecting the expectation of good U.S. soybean exports [7]. - **Fundamentals**: South American bumper harvest expectation, strong U.S. soybean crushing and increasing export expectations, and an overall improving U.S. soybean supply - demand but a globally loosening supply - demand [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to China's purchase of U.S. soybeans and South American production realization; the domestic market is weaker and range - bound [7] Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices are strong, and spot prices are stable [7]. - **Fundamentals**: More than 60% of grain sales are completed, with limited sales pressure. However, the selling mentality in the Northeast has changed, and downstream enterprises are replenishing inventory at low prices [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be range - bound and slightly strong due to policy disturbances [7] Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian market is short - term weak [8]. - **Fundamentals**: A 14% month - on - month decrease in Malaysian palm oil production in January, a 11% month - on - month increase in exports, and a 7.7% month - on - month decrease in inventory at the end of January [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats are weak. Consider an anti - spread strategy and pay attention to future production and biodiesel policies [8] Cotton - **Market Performance**: ICE U.S. cotton futures prices continued to rebound, while international crude oil futures prices fell sharply [8]. - **Fundamentals**: A 3.2% year - on - year decrease in the expected U.S. cotton planting area in the 26/27 season, and changes in U.S. cotton export sales and domestic cotton supply - demand [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy at low prices. The price range is 14600 - 15000 yuan/ton [8] Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices rebounded, and spot prices stopped quoting [8]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in the number of laying hens in production, active chick replenishment, and expected seasonal decline in egg prices due to weakening demand [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be range - bound and weak [8] Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices are weak, and spot prices have a slight increase [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Expected rapid decline in slaughter volume after the minor New Year, large daily slaughter pressure this month, and a situation of strong supply and weak demand [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be range - bound and weak [8] Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE main contract continued to fluctuate slightly. The low - price spot in North China was 6530 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract basis was 200 points lower than the futures price [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Easing domestic supply pressure and weakening downstream demand [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term weak fluctuations, and consider long - positions at low prices in the medium - term [9] PTA - **Market Performance**: PX CFR China price was 917 dollars/ton, and PTA East China spot price was 5180 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 73 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: High - level supply of PX and PTA, and a situation of inventory accumulation [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a long - position view on PX in the medium - term, and consider taking profits on PTA [10] PP - **Market Performance**: The PP main contract continued to fluctuate slightly. The PP spot price in East China was 6550 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract basis was 130 points lower than the futures price [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Increasing supply pressure and weakening downstream demand [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term weak fluctuations, and consider short - positions at high prices in the medium - term [10] MEG - **Market Performance**: The East China spot price was 3675 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 105 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Increasing supply, inventory accumulation, and weakening downstream demand [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider long - positions at appropriate times as the market may start to destock in March [10] Styrene - **Market Performance**: The styrene main contract fluctuated slightly. The East China spot market price was 7570 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: High - level pure benzene inventory, low - level styrene inventory, and weak supply - demand on both sides [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term wide - range fluctuations, and consider long - positions on styrene or related spread strategies in the medium - to - long - term [10]

金融研究 2026年2月12日 星期四 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：2 月 11 日，A 股四大股指多数下跌，其中上证指数上涨 0.09%，报收 4131.99 点；深成 指下跌 0.35%，报收 14160.93 点；创业板指下跌 1.08%，报收 3284.74 点；科创 50 指数下跌 1.11%， 报收 1455.11 点。市场成交 20,010 亿元，较前日减少 1,237 亿元。行业板块方面，建筑材料(+3.29%)， 有色金属(+2.39%)，石油石化(+2.18%)表现较好；通信(-2.17%)，传媒(-1.99%)，社会服务(-1.74%) 表现一般。从市场强弱看，IC>IH>IM>IF，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,047/193/3,236。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-221、-212、40、393 亿元，分别变动-106、-6、+12、+99 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为-1.49、-10.59、-0.98 与-2.94 点，基差年化收益率分别 为 0.21%、1.45%、0.24%与 1.08%，三年期历史 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Metals - The precious metals market is gradually stabilizing. It is recommended to go long on gold again, and the long - term outlook remains positive. For silver, the spot market is still tight, but the price fluctuations on the futures market are increasing, so cautious participation is advised [1]. - For copper, it is recommended to wait for buying opportunities after the Spring Festival. Aluminum is expected to maintain a short - term price oscillation. Alumina has upward potential due to marginal supply contraction. Industrial silicon is likely to oscillate between 8200 - 8800 yuan/ton, and short - selling at high prices can be considered if the large - scale production cuts are short - lived. Lithium carbonate is expected to have an upward - biased price trend. Polysilicon is expected to weakly oscillate between 45000 - 53000 yuan/ton. Tin also requires waiting for buying opportunities after the Spring Festival [1][3][4]. Black Industry - For rebar, iron ore, and coking coal, the recommended strategy is mainly to wait and see, while aggressive investors can participate in short - term long - positions [5]. Agricultural Products - For soybean meal, focus on China's purchases of US soybeans and the realization of South American production. The domestic market is weaker than the overseas market, with a unilateral oscillation in search of a bottom and an inverse spread structure. Corn futures are expected to oscillate upward. For oils and fats, the market has entered an oscillation phase, with an inverse spread strategy. For cotton, it is advisable to buy at low prices. Egg, and hog futures are expected to oscillate downward [6][7]. Energy and Chemicals - LLDPE is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and is recommended to be bought at low prices in the medium term. PVC is recommended to be observed. For PX, the mid - term long - position view remains unchanged, and for PTA, appropriate profit - taking is advised. Glass suggests a strategy of buying glass and selling soda ash. PP is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and be short - sold at high prices in the medium term. MEG is recommended to be bought at low prices for short - term opportunities. Styrene is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the short term and be bought at low prices in the medium term. Soda ash is recommended to be observed [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Precious metals opened higher, oscillated, and slightly climbed in the night session yesterday [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The US added 130,000 non - farm jobs in January, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, and there were downward revisions in previous data. Market expectations for interest - rate cuts have been postponed. The US budget deficit has shrunk, but future deficit expectations are rising. There are changes in gold and silver inventories and ETF holdings [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The precious metals market is stabilizing. Go long on gold and be cautious with silver [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices rose and then declined yesterday [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The stronger - than - expected non - farm data led to a stronger US dollar and weaker metals. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the domestic demand for replenishment has ended [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for buying opportunities after the Spring Festival [3]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.62% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants are operating at high loads, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate has slightly increased [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to uncertainties in the macro - environment and a supply - demand balance, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.25% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Some alumina plants are in the production - reduction and overhaul phase, while electrolytic aluminum plants are operating at high loads [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the subsequent overhaul and shutdown situations as there is upward potential in the price [4]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract decreased by 5 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of open furnaces decreased last week, mainly in Xinjiang. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decline, and the aluminum alloy operating rate is stable [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is in a supply - demand balance. Observe the resumption of production by large enterprises after the Spring Festival. Consider short - selling at high prices if the production cuts are short - lived [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 increased by 9.41% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Some lithium salt plants are under maintenance. Production and demand in the lithium - related industries are expected to decline. The inventory is expected to be in a tight balance in Q1, and the number of inventory days has increased [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market has an upward - biased expectation for the material production in March. The price is expected to oscillate upward [4]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract increased by 230 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The weekly production is stable, and the inventory is unchanged. The production of silicon wafers is stable, while that of battery cells and components is expected to decline. The photovoltaic export policy provides some support [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to weakly oscillate between 45000 - 53000 yuan/ton [4]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices continued to oscillate upward [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the downstream replenishment has ended [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for buying opportunities after the Spring Festival [4]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract decreased by 18 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The building material inventory has increased. The building material demand is weak, but the supply has decreased significantly year - on - year. The plate demand is stable, and the inventory change is at a historical high. Steel mills are in a loss, and the production increase is limited [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. Aggressive investors can participate in short - term long - positions on the 2605 contract [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract decreased by 2.5 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The shipments from Australia and Brazil have decreased. The iron ore supply - demand is neutral. The iron - water production has slightly increased. The furnace - charge replenishment is almost complete, and the inventory days are above the historical average. There is a structural contradiction in the port inventory [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. Aggressive investors can participate in short - term long - positions on the 2605 contract [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract decreased by 7.5 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The iron - water production has increased. Steel mills are in a loss, and the blast - furnace production may decline. The first round of price increases has been implemented, and there are no further plans. The overall inventory is at a medium level, and the futures valuation is high [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. Aggressive investors can participate in short - term long - positions on the 2605 contract [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The overnight CBOT soybeans rose [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The USDA report increased the Brazilian soybean production, and the global supply is becoming more abundant. The US soybean crushing is strong, and the export expectation is increasing [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The US soybeans are strong. Focus on China's purchases and South American production. The domestic market is weaker, with a unilateral oscillation in search of a bottom and an inverse spread structure [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices are rising, while the spot prices in the Northeast are slightly falling and those in the North China are slightly rising [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress has exceeded 60%, and the pressure is not high. The selling sentiment in the Northeast has increased, and the downstream is gradually stopping purchases [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures prices are expected to oscillate upward due to policy support [6]. Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market is weak in the short term [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 14% month - on - month in January, and the export increased by 11%. The inventory decreased by 7.7% to 2.82 million tons [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market has entered an oscillation phase, with an inverse spread strategy. Pay attention to future production and bio - diesel policies [7]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The overnight ICE US cotton futures prices oscillated upward, and the international crude oil prices continued to rise [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The global cotton production in 25/26 is expected to increase. The Indian cotton production remains unchanged. The domestic cotton prices are rising, and the textile enterprises' inventory has increased [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy at low prices, with a price range of 14600 - 15000 yuan/ton [7]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices are weak, and the spot prices have stopped being quoted [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The laying - hen inventory is decreasing, but the replenishment is active. The stocking is ending, and the demand is weakening [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures prices are expected to oscillate downward [7]. Hogs - **Market Performance**: Hog futures and spot prices are both weak [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The short - term slaughter volume has increased, but it is expected to decline after the Minor New Year. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures prices are expected to oscillate downward [7]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main contract continued to oscillate slightly. The spot price in North China is 6570 yuan/ton, and the basis is weak [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic supply pressure has slowed down, and the import is expected to decrease. The downstream demand is weakening [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate weakly in the short term and be bought at low prices in the medium term [8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 increased by 0.5% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The trading is light, and the price is stable. The supply is large, and the demand is seasonally weakening. The social inventory is accumulating [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe due to balanced supply and weak demand [9]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The PX CFR China price is 917 US dollars/ton, and the PTA spot price in East China is 5180 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of PX and PTA is at a high level. The polyester factory load is decreasing, and the market is in a state of inventory accumulation [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a long - position view on PX and take appropriate profits on PTA [9]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 decreased by 0.7% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The price is stable. The supply has decreased, and the inventory is high. The downstream demand is weak [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy glass and sell soda ash [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main contract continued to oscillate slightly. The spot price in East China is 6550 yuan/ton, and the basis is weak [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic supply is increasing, and the export window is open. The downstream demand is weakening due to the holiday [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate weakly in the short term and be short - sold at high prices in the medium term [9]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The spot price in East China is 3675 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 105 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is increasing, and the import is decreasing. The inventory is at a medium - high level, and the market is in a state of inventory accumulation [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider short - term long - positions as the inventory may start to decrease in March [10]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main contract oscillated slightly. The spot price in East China is 7550 yuan/ton, and the trading is average [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The pure - benzene inventory is at a normal - high level, and the styrene inventory is at a normal - low level. The supply and demand are both weak [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate widely in the short term and be bought at low prices in the medium term [10]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 remained unchanged [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The price is at the bottom, and the supply is large. The inventory is accumulating, and the demand from the photovoltaic glass industry is weak [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe due to increased supply and weak demand [10].

金融研究 2026年2月11日 星期三 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 | | 市场表现：2 月 日，A 股四大股指全线上涨，其中上证指数上涨 0.13%，报收 点；深成 10 4128.37 | | --- | --- | | | 指上涨 0.02%，报收 14210.63 点；创业板指下跌 0.37%，报收 3320.54 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.91%， | | | 报收 1471.5 点。市场成交 21,247 亿元，较前日减少 1,454 亿元。行业板块方面，传媒(+4.27%)， | | | 综合(+2.15%)，家用电器(+1.11%)涨幅居前；房地产(-1.4%)，食品饮料(-1.31%)，商贸零售(-0.87%) | | | 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IH>IF>IC，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,192/159/3,122。沪深两市，机构、 | | | 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-115、-207、28、294 亿元，分别变动-331、-108、+194、 | | 股指期货 | +245 亿元。 | | | 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 21.3、15 ...