1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including base metals, precious metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It presents market performance, fundamental factors, and trading strategies for each sector, aiming to assist investors in making informed decisions. 3. Summary by Directory Base Metals - **Copper**: Market rallied yesterday. Traders are focused on the increasing probability of a December interest rate cut and the tight supply of copper concentrate and refined copper since the cesco meeting. Suggest not to chase the high and wait for a new buying point [2]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract of electrolytic aluminum closed 1.18% higher. With a warm macro - environment and improving fundamentals, the price is expected to be volatile and bullish [2]. - **Alumina**: The main contract closed 1.11% lower. Due to loose supply, accumulating inventory, and weak cost support, the price is expected to be volatile and bearish [2]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: International precious metal prices were slightly divided on Monday. Gold is recommended to be bought at the lower support level, and silver can be short - term long due to the tightened overseas market [3]. Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: The market was narrowly volatile on Monday. With stable supply and demand, the price is expected to move between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to wait and see [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The current situation is strong in reality but weak in Q1 expectations. The short - term price increase is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The short - term price is driven up by a short - squeeze. The subsequent price depends on the progress of the state - reserve platform. If there is no new progress, the price will fluctuate around the spot price of 53,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Tin**: The price rose and then fell yesterday. With the easing of supply concerns, it is recommended to wait for a new buying point [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar Steel**: The main contract closed slightly higher. With weak supply and demand and significant structural differentiation, it is advisable to wait and see and consider shorting the steel mill's profit [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract closed slightly higher. With weakening supply - demand balance and a neutral - high valuation, it is recommended to exit and wait, and consider shorting the steel mill's profit [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The main contract closed higher. With deteriorating steel mill profits and a high - valued futures, it is recommended to exit and wait, and consider shorting the steel mill's profit [6]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean fell overnight. The global supply - demand is improving but still loose. The domestic market follows the cost in the short - term, and the medium - term trend depends on tariff policies and production in the producing areas [7]. - **Corn**: Futures prices declined, and spot prices varied by region. The short - term supply is tight, but the new crop is expected to increase, and the cost has dropped. The futures price is expected to be volatile and bearish [7][8]. - **Vegetable Oils**: The Malaysian market fell. With high production in the producing areas and export decline, the market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to production and biodiesel policies [8]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price was narrowly volatile. The international export situation is good, and the domestic downstream demand is stable. It is recommended to buy on dips [8]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices declined, and spot prices were stable. With balanced supply and demand, the price is expected to be volatile [8]. - **Pigs**: Futures prices were narrowly volatile, and spot prices mostly rose. With sufficient supply, the price is expected to be seasonally weak and the futures price to be volatile and bearish [8]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract was slightly volatile. In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile and bearish, and in the long - term, it is advisable to buy the far - month contract on dips [9]. - **PVC**: The price was at the bottom and volatile. With weak supply - demand balance, it is recommended to short [10]. - **PTA**: PX supply is high, and PTA supply is expected to increase in the long - term. It is recommended to take profit on long PX and short PTA processing fee positions [10]. - **Rubber**: The price was volatile and bearish. With falling raw material prices and inventory accumulation, it is advisable to trade in bands [10]. - **Glass**: The price rebounded from the bottom. With weak supply - demand and low valuation, it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **PP**: The main contract was slightly volatile. In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile and bearish, and in the long - term, it is advisable to buy the far - month contract on dips [10][11]. - **MEG**: Supply is high, and inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 01 contract and take profit on short positions appropriately [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The price jumped due to geopolitical risks. With a bearish fundamental and easing geopolitical risks, it is recommended to hold short positions [11]. - **Styrene**: In the short - term, the market is expected to be volatile, and in the medium - term, it is advisable to buy styrene profit on dips [11]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand is balanced. It is recommended to wait and see [11][12].

金融研究 2025年12月1日 星期一 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：11 月 28 日，A 股四大股指全线上涨，其中上证指数上涨 0.34%，报收 3888.6 点；深成 指上涨 0.85%，报收 12984.08 点；创业板指上涨 0.7%，报收 3052.59 点；科创 50 指数上涨 1.25%， 报收 1327.15 点。市场成交 15,977 亿元，较前日减少 1,254 亿元。行业板块方面，钢铁(+1.59%)， 农林牧渔(+1.59%)，商贸零售(+1.46%)涨幅居前；银行(-0.83%)，煤炭(-0.14%)，美容护理(+0.07%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IC>IM>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,122/139/1,187。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 92、-24、-80、12 亿元，分别变动+173、+81、-83、-171 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 148.61、113.55、36.06 与 10.22 点，基差年化收益率 分别为-14.9%、-11.87%、-5.86%与-2.53%，三年 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. Core Views - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures including precious metals, base metals, black industry, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It also mentions potential investment opportunities and risks in different sectors [1][2][3][4][5][6][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On Friday, gold and silver prices rose significantly. London gold reached $4250 per ounce, up 1.73%, and London silver closed at $56.71 per ounce, up 6.12% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Putin agreed to use the US list on Ukraine issue for future negotiations; the speech of the Bank of Japan governor on Monday will determine the policy direction; French President Macron will visit China in early December. There were changes in inventories of gold and silver in different locations, and the holdings of some ETFs remained stable or increased [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest to buy gold at the lower support level. For silver, due to the reappearance of overseas market tensions, short - term long positions can be taken [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices strengthened significantly on Friday [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The expectation of a December interest rate cut exceeded 80%. The cesco meeting signaled a clear seller's market for copper concentrate and refined copper. There were spot premiums for copper in East and South China, and the London structure was in a back situation. Global visible inventory decreased weekly, and COMEX had locked and immovable inventory [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest to buy on dips [1]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.51% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 21,610 yuan per ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of - 135 yuan/ton, and the LME price was $2865 per ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. On the demand side, the weekly aluminum product operating rate increased slightly [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the increase in the aluminum product operating rate, the decline in aluminum ingot inventory, and the favorable macro - environment at home and abroad, the fundamentals are improving marginally. The aluminum price shows a weak rebound and is expected to fluctuate strongly in the future [1]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 0.62% compared to the previous trading day, closing at 2707 yuan per ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of 13 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, some alumina plants resumed production after previous overhauls, and the operating capacity increased again. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to the loose supply, continuous inventory accumulation, and weak cost support, although the decline in the spot price has narrowed, the short - dominated pattern remains unchanged. The alumina price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The main contract of rebar 2601 closed at 3124 yuan per ton, up 39 yuan per ton from the previous night - session closing price [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of steel is weak, and the structural differentiation is significant. The demand for building materials has slightly improved marginally but remains weak year - on - year, and the supply has also decreased significantly year - on - year with limited contradictions. The demand for plates is stable, and direct and indirect exports remain high, but due to high production, inventory reduction is difficult. Rebar futures have a large discount and low valuation; hot - rolled coil futures' discount is basically the same as the previous period, with a high valuation. Steel mills are continuously losing money, and production may continue to decline marginally [3][4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Exit and wait and see. Try to short the steel mill's profit. The reference range for RB01 is 3080 - 3130 [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main contract of iron ore 2601 closed at 796.5 yuan per ton, up 4 yuan per ton from the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of iron ore is weak. The weekly iron - making water production decreased by 16,000 tons, up 0.3% year - on - year. The fourth round of coke price increase failed, and the first round of price cut was proposed. Steel mills' profits are poor, and subsequent blast furnace production may decrease steadily. The supply is in line with seasonal rules and slightly increased year - on - year. The supply - demand of iron ore is weakening marginally. The iron ore maintains a forward discount structure, but the absolute level is at a relatively low level in the same period of history, with a moderately high valuation [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Exit and wait and see. Try to short the steel mill's profit. The reference range for I01 is 780 - 800 [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main contract of coking coal 2601 closed at 1068.5 yuan per ton, down 0.5 yuan per ton from the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The iron - making water production decreased by 16,000 tons to 2363,000 tons, up 0.3% year - on - year. Steel mills' profits are deteriorating, and subsequent blast furnace production may decrease steadily. The third round of price increase was implemented, but the fourth round failed and the first round of price cut was proposed. The inventory of each link on the supply side is differentiated. The inventory and inventory days of steel mills and coking plants are at a neutral level in the same period of history, and the pit - mouth inventory is low, with a neutral overall inventory level. The futures price is at a premium to the spot price, and the forward premium structure remains, with a high futures valuation [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Exit and wait and see. Try to short the steel mill's profit. The reference range for JM01 is 1050 - 1100 [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose last Friday [5]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the near - term supply decreased, but it was still a quantitative change; the long - term supply in South America is expected to be large in a normal year, and it is currently in the sowing and growing stage. On the demand side, US soybean crushing is strong, and exports are still in a game, depending on the future non - commercial procurement volume from China. In general, the global supply - demand situation is improving marginally but still loose [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are in a moderately strong oscillation, with valuation repair; the domestic market also follows the cost side in the short - term, and the medium - term trend depends on the progress of tariff policies and the output in the production area [5]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices were strong, while spot prices fell in North China and rose in Northeast China [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Weather factors postponed the supply. Currently, the national corn channel inventory is at a low level, and there is a need to build inventory. The deep - processing profit is good, the demand is strong, and the acquisition intention is high. The short - term supply - demand tightness led to a spot price rebound. However, the arrival of new corn in Northeast China is approaching, the new crop is expected to increase in production, and the cost of corn has decreased significantly, suppressing the long - term price expectation. Attention should be paid to weather and policy changes [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: The spot price has loosened, and the futures price is expected to oscillate and consolidate [5]. Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market rose last Friday, trading on the concern of floods in the production area [5]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the production in the production area is high, and the MPOA estimated that the production from November 1 - 20 increased by 3.2% month - on - month, but there were flood disturbances in the Indonesian production area. On the demand side, the ITS estimated that the Malaysian palm oil exports from November 1 - 25 decreased by 19% month - on - month. Overall, the Malaysian palm oil inventory continues to accumulate in the near - term and is expected to have a seasonal production decline in the long - term [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: P is strong, trading on the flood disturbances in the production area and variety differentiation. Attention should be paid to future production and biodiesel policies [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The ICE raw sugar 03 contract closed at 15.21 cents per pound, with a weekly increase of 2.98%. The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5400 yuan per ton, with a weekly increase of 0.88%. The basis between the Guangxi spot price and the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract was 215 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of processing Brazilian sugar with duty - paid after quota was 581 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, the international sugar price rebounded slightly this week. Part of the negative impact of the northern hemisphere's production increase has been realized. The future export situation of India will affect the international trend. The raw sugar will oscillate at a low level in the short - term, and the global production increase trend will continue in the long - term, with the 26/27 sugar season continuing to find the bottom through oscillation. Domestically, the sugar price rebounded under the influence of raw sugar, but the increase was smaller than that of raw sugar. In the future, new sugar will be gradually launched, the production increase expectation in Guangxi has been significantly raised, and the import pressure in October is prominent. The domestic market will be under the dual pressure of production increase and import in the fourth quarter and is expected to continue to oscillate and decline [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short in the futures market; sell call options [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The US cotton futures price continued to rebound, and the international crude oil price stopped falling [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, as of the week ending October 16, the net increase in US cotton export sales in the current market year was 175,700 bales, an increase of 11% compared to the previous week and 17% compared to the average of the previous four weeks. The Indian Ministry of Agriculture began to lower the new - year cotton production forecast. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated upwards, and the Xinjiang basis decreased month - on - month. Currently, the downstream demand is relatively stable, and the overall production and sales of textile enterprises are normal [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips, with a strategy mainly in the range of 13,600 - 13,900 yuan per ton [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices continued to rebound, and egg spot prices rose slightly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of laying hens in production decreased, and the number of culled hens was at a high level, reducing the supply pressure. After the egg price rebounded, the market sales were average, and traders purchased as needed and the wait - and - see sentiment gradually increased. The increase in vegetable prices boosted the egg price. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the egg price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices were weak, while most pig spot prices rebounded [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The pig supply is still abundant, and the demand is expected to increase seasonally. The supply - demand pressure has eased compared to the previous period. However, approaching the Winter Solstice, there may be a wave of concentrated slaughter by farmers, and the reduction in supply at the end of the month has limited support. The pig price is expected to weaken seasonally, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply is abundant, the expectation is pessimistic, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Apples - **Market Performance**: The main contract closed at 9450 yuan per ton, with a weekly increase of 0.11%. The apple prices in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong were stable, with different price ranges for different grades and types of apples [6]. - **Fundamentals**: This year, the total apple production is low, the inventory is low, and the quality is poor. The national total production decreased by 8% - 15% year - on - year, and the high - quality fruit rate is less than 20%, lower than the previous level of over 30%. Farmers and merchants are pessimistic about the cold - storage market but optimistic about the spot market. The spot acquisition price has increased significantly, and the acquisition price of high - quality apples in the Northwest region has reached over 5 yuan per catty. However, the large - scale listing of winter seasonal fruits will put seasonal pressure on the apple price [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [6]. Energy Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE main contract rebounded slightly on Friday. The low - price spot price in North China was 6730 yuan per ton, the basis of the 01 contract was the futures price minus 60, the basis weakened, and the market trading performance was acceptable. Overseas, the US dollar price decreased slightly, and the current import window was closed [8]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, new plants were put into operation, some plants reduced production or stopped, and the domestic supply pressure eased. The import window remained closed, and the future import volume was expected to decrease slightly. Overall, the domestic supply pressure increased but at a slower pace. On the demand side, the current downstream agricultural film season is off - peak, the demand decreased month - on - month, and the demand in other fields remained stable [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, the industrial chain inventory decreased slightly, the basis was weak, the supply - demand was weak. As it enters the delivery month, it will mainly oscillate weakly, and the upside space is significantly restricted by the import window. In the long - term, the new production capacity will decrease in the first half of next year, and the supply - demand pattern will improve. It is recommended to buy far - month contracts on dips [8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V01 closed at 4580, up 0.7% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: PVC prices increased slightly driven by the macro - environment. The supply increased, with new plants such as Fujian Wanhua and Tianjin Bohua put into operation, and the supply increased by 1% month - on - month. The production in October was 2.12 million tons, up 5.6% year - on - year, and the expected operating rate in the fourth quarter is 78% - 80%. The operating rate of downstream factories began to decline, around 38%. The real estate market weakened in October, with new construction and completion decreasing by 17% year - on - year. The social inventory was at a high level, and the PVC social inventory on November 28 was 1.0428 million tons, up 0.99% month - on - month and 23.44% year - on - year [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply - demand is weak, and it is recommended to short [8]. Rubber - **Market Performance**: On Friday, RU2601 was strong, closing at 15,410 yuan per ton, up 1.22% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: On November 28, the price of Thai He'ai glue was 57 Thai baht per kilogram (unchanged), and the price of cup rubber decreased slightly by 0.2 - 0.4 Thai baht per kilogram. The spot market price center increased, and downstream enterprises made rigid purchases. The price of Thai mixed rubber was 14,680 yuan per ton (up 80), and the price of whole - milk rubber was 14,950 yuan per ton (up 100). Last week, some semi - steel tire sample enterprises had overhauls, and the capacity utilization rate was 66% (down 3.36%); the full - steel tire enterprises that had overhauls resumed production, and the capacity utilization rate was 62.75% (up 0.71%) [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: There is still an expectation of seasonal output increase, inventory accumulation, and downstream demand pressure. The rubber price lacks more positive support for an upward trend. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to close long positions. In the medium - term, the rubber price will still oscillate widely, and it is recommended to conduct band trading [8]. Glass - **Market Performance**: FG01 closed at 1040, down 1.2% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The glass price rebounded recently, mainly due to more cold - repairs and cost support. Hubei Yijun is expected to shut down 2 production lines, and Sanxia New Material will shut down 1 production line, with the expected daily melting volume to decrease by 4000 tons. The inventory is at a high level, and the upstream inventory on November 27 was 62.362 million heavy boxes, down 1.49% month -

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy in the medium - to - long term, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [1]. - For treasury bond futures, it is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium - to - long term [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On November 27, most of the four major A - share stock indexes declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.29% to close at 3875.26 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index falling 0.25%, 0.44%, and 0.33% respectively. Market trading volume was 1723.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 74 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, light manufacturing, basic chemicals, and petroleum and petrochemicals led the gains, while comprehensive, media, and commercial retail led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IM>IH>IF>IC. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 2786, 217, and 2445 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net capital inflows of - 8.1 billion, - 10.5 billion, 0.3 billion, and 18.4 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 10.2 billion, + 2.5 billion, - 0.9 billion, and + 8.5 billion yuan respectively [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 153.85, 113.28, 38.4, and 15.07 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 15.14%, - 11.64%, - 6.07%, and - 3.62% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 15%, 15%, 18%, and 23% respectively [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium - to - long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock indexes as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On November 27, interest - rate bonds basically stabilized. Among the active contracts, TS rose 0.01%, TF fell 0.01%, T fell 0.06%, and TL fell 0.01% [1]. - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2603 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250017.IB, with a yield change of - 0.5bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.052, and an IRR of 1.62%; for the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 2500801.IB, with a yield change of + 1.5bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.039, and an IRR of 1.58%; for the 10 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250018.IB, with a yield change of + 1.75bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.059, and an IRR of 1.64%; for the 30 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of + 1bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.108, and an IRR of 1.73% [1]. - **Funding Situation**: In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 356.4 billion yuan and withdrew 300 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 56.4 billion yuan [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the valuation of interest - rate bonds has reached a reasonable level. In the medium - to - long term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [1]. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that this month's import and export and social activity sentiment are better than the same period, while the infrastructure sentiment is worse than the same period [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading strategies for each sector. 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Gold Market** - Market Performance: On Thursday, precious metal prices fluctuated, with London gold reaching $4150 per ounce [2]. - Fundamentals: Putin discussed a peace plan, China's industrial profits showed changes, and there were various inventory changes in gold and silver [2]. - Trading Strategy: Buy gold at the lower support level, and short - term long silver due to overseas market tensions [2]. - **Silver Market** - Market Performance: Reflects in inventory and price changes in different markets [2]. - Fundamentals: Inventory changes in multiple regions and import data from India [2]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term long due to overseas market tensions [2]. Base Metals - **Aluminum** - Market Performance: The electrolytic aluminum main contract closed +0.21% at 21,500 yuan/ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of - 150 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: High - load production in electrolytic aluminum plants, stable weekly aluminum product start - up rate [3]. - Trading Strategy: Prices are expected to fluctuate due to a warm macro - environment, inventory reduction, and expanding spot discounts [3]. - **Alumina** - Market Performance: The main contract closed +0.15% at 2724 yuan/ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of 18 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: No long - cycle maintenance and production reduction, high - load production in electrolytic aluminum plants [3]. - Trading Strategy: Prices are expected to be weakly fluctuating before large - scale production cuts due to supply - demand surplus and cost support [3]. - **Industrial Silicon** - Market Performance: The main 01 contract closed at 9115 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton, with a decrease in positions and funds [3]. - Fundamentals: Decrease in furnace start - up, expected decline in south - west start - up rate, and different demand situations in downstream industries [3]. - Trading Strategy: The market is expected to trade between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Polysilicon** - Market Performance: The main 01 contract closed at 55235 yuan/ton, down 660 yuan/ton, with changes in positions and funds [4]. - Fundamentals: Slight decline in weekly production, inventory accumulation, and weakening demand in downstream industries [4]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see due to expected decline in downstream production and market uncertainties [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Soybean Meal** - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans are in short - term oscillation [5]. - Fundamentals: Near - term supply contraction, long - term large supply from South America, strong US soybean crushing, and uncertain exports [5]. - Trading Strategy: Wait for new drivers in the US soybean market, and the domestic market's mid - term trend depends on tariff policies and production [5]. - **Corn** - Market Performance: Corn futures prices fluctuate narrowly, with different trends in spot prices in North and Northeast China [5]. - Fundamentals: Supply delay due to weather, low inventory, strong demand from deep - processing industries, and expected increase in new - crop production [5]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to selling hedging opportunities as Northeast supply increases [5]. - **Fats and Oils** - Market Performance: The Malaysian palm oil market rose due to flood concerns [5]. - Fundamentals: High production in the producing areas, expected inventory accumulation in the near term, and seasonal production reduction in the long term [5]. - Trading Strategy: Trade the flood - related disturbances and pay attention to future production and biodiesel policies [5]. - **Sugar** - Market Performance: Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5411 yuan/ton, up 0.24% [5]. - Fundamentals: International sugar prices are expected to decline in the long term, and the domestic market faces pressure in the fourth quarter [5]. - Trading Strategy: Short in the futures market and sell call options [5]. - **Cotton** - Market Performance: US cotton futures prices rebounded overnight, and international crude oil prices stopped falling [6]. - Fundamentals: Changes in international cotton export and import data, and stable domestic downstream demand [6]. - Trading Strategy: Buy at low prices, with a strategy in the 13600 - 13900 yuan/ton range [6]. - **Eggs** - Market Performance: Egg futures prices rebounded, and spot prices were stable [6]. - Fundamentals: Decrease in laying hen inventory, increased stocking by traders, and short - term strong egg prices with limited sustainability [6]. - Trading Strategy: Egg futures prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. - **Pigs** - Market Performance: Pig futures prices rebounded, and spot prices continued to fall [6]. - Fundamentals: Abundant pig supply, expected seasonal increase in demand, and possible concentrated slaughter near the winter solstice [6]. - Trading Strategy: Pig futures prices are expected to be weakly fluctuating [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE** - Market Performance: The main contract continued to decline slightly, with stable basis and general market transactions [7]. - Fundamentals: New device production, reduced supply pressure, and weakening downstream demand [7]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term weak oscillation, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or conduct month - spread reverse arbitrage [7]. - **PVC** - Market Performance: V01 closed at 4546, up 1% [7]. - Fundamentals: Low prices, increased inventory, increased supply, and weak demand [7]. - Trading Strategy: Short or conduct reverse arbitrage due to weak supply - demand [7]. - **PTA** - Market Performance: PX and PTA prices showed certain trends, with a specific spot basis [8]. - Fundamentals: High domestic PX supply, short - term PTA supply decline, and overall supply - demand situations in related industries [8]. - Trading Strategy: Take profit on PX long positions, and stop loss on PTA processing - fee short positions [8]. - **Rubber** - Market Performance: RU2601 oscillated upward, with continued night - session gains [8]. - Fundamentals: Stable raw material prices, different production situations in tire factories [8]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term strong oscillation due to rainfall affecting production [8]. - **Glass** - Market Performance: FG01 closed at 1060, up 1.9% [8]. - Fundamentals: Bottom - up rebound due to cold - repair and cost support, high inventory, and weak real - estate data [8]. - Trading Strategy: Exit reverse arbitrage due to upstream production cuts [8]. - **PP** - Market Performance: The main contract continued to decline slightly, with stable basis and general market transactions [8]. - Fundamentals: New device production, increased supply, and weakening demand [8]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term weak oscillation, and in the long term, short at high prices or conduct month - spread reverse arbitrage [8]. - **MEG** - Market Performance: East China spot price and basis are provided [9]. - Fundamentals: High - level supply, inventory accumulation, and situations in related industries [9]. - Trading Strategy: Short at high prices for the 01 contract and take partial profit on short positions [9]. - **Benzene and Styrene** - Market Performance: The main contract fluctuated slightly, with a certain market trading atmosphere [9]. - Fundamentals: Inventory situations in pure benzene and styrene, and weak downstream demand [9]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term oscillation, with limited upward space [9]. - **Soda Ash** - Market Performance: sa01 closed at 1190, up 1% [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply - demand balance, high inventory, and downstream demand situations [9]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see due to supply - demand balance [9].

金融研究 2025年11月27日 星期四 招商期货有限公司 股指期货 市场表现：11 月 26 日，A 股四大股指多数上涨，其中上证指数下跌 0.15%，报收 3864.18 点；深成 指上涨 1.02%，报收 12907.83 点；创业板指上涨 2.14%，报收 3044.69 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.99%， 报收 1315.04 点。市场成交 17,972 亿元，较前日减少 290 亿元。行业板块方面，通信(+4.64%)，综 合(+1.79%)，电子(+1.58%)涨幅居前；国防军工(-2.25%)，社会服务(-0.97%)，传媒(-0.82%)跌幅居 前。从市场强弱看，IF>IC>IH>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,689/168/3,591。沪深两市，机构、主力、 大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 20、-130、12、99 亿元，分别变动-91、-108、+73、+125 亿元。 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 140.85、113.05、38.03 与 10.8 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-13.49%、-11.27%、-5.85%与-2.52%，三年期历史分位数分别为 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Rising" investment rating for the lithium carbonate industry [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent rise in lithium carbonate prices is driven by a strong real - world fundamental situation and the transformation of the weak 2026E expectation into a strong one, leading to a resonance in the linkage between stocks and futures [6] - There are differences in lithium price increases during the off - season in 26Q1 under the strong 2026E expectation, while the peak season in 26H2 has stronger certainty [15] - The current market is trading based on strong fundamentals, but there is callback pressure on the market. However, the expectation that the off - season in 26Q1 will not be weak provides support for prices. It is recommended to wait for the price to fall and stabilize before opportunistically buying LC2605 or more distant - month contracts at low prices [51][52] Summary by Directory 01 Hot Event Review - **Recent Rising Drivers - Strong Real - World Fundamentals**: Since September, lithium carbonate has entered a seasonal peak season, with a gradually emerging supply - demand gap. After the National Day holiday in October, the impact of mining - end disturbances decreased, and lithium prices started to rise. The release of a key report on the resumption of production at Jianxiaowo in early November accelerated the expected resumption of production. Even if Jianxiaowo resumes production, the full - production increment will not change the supply - demand shortage in November. The market has shifted to trading based on strong real - world fundamentals. From January to October 2025, there were fluctuations in the supply and demand of lithium carbonate, and there were supply shortages in multiple months [9][11] - **Recent Rising Drivers - Transformation of 26E Weak Expectation into Strong Expectation and Resonance in Stock - Futures Linkage**: The equity market has an optimistic expectation for the 2026E energy - storage demand, and the lithium - battery sector has risen first. Since November 5th, the incremental capital inflow has driven the increase in positions and prices of lithium carbonate. The precipitation funds of the lithium carbonate variety have increased from 14.4 billion yuan to a peak of 26.3 billion yuan, an increase of + 82.6%, and the price of LC2601 has increased from 79,000 yuan on November 5th to a high of 102,000 yuan, an increase of + 29.1% [12][14] - **Differences**: Under the strong 2026E expectation, there are differences in lithium price increases during the off - season in 26Q1, while the peak season in 26H2 has stronger certainty. The 01 - 05 spread has weakened significantly, and the distant - month LC2605 has become the main contract. The demand for new - energy vehicles in 26Q1 is expected to decline month - on - month, so there are differences in the rise of LC2601 lithium prices, while LC2605 is not affected by the Q1 demand decline [15] 02 Fundamental Situation and Operation Suggestions - **Supply**: In October, the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 57,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of + 2%, and it is expected to be 57,500 tons in November, a month - on - month increase of + 1%. It is expected that the production of lithium carbonate from lepidolite will continue to decline month - on - month in November [20] - **Demand**: In November, the expected production of various lithium - related products has different trends. For example, the production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to reach 410,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of + 4.0%; the production of ternary materials is expected to be 85,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of + 1.4%; the production of cobalt - acid lithium is expected to rise to 13,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of + 3.4%; the production of lithium hexafluorophosphate is expected to rise to 26,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of + 3.7%, while the production of manganese - acid lithium is expected to be 12,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 3.6% [22][25] - **Terminal Demand**: In October, the production of power and energy - storage batteries was 170.6GWh, a month - on - month increase of + 12.8%; the installed capacity of power batteries was 84.1GWh, a month - on - month increase of + 10.7%; the production of domestic new - energy passenger vehicles was 1.772 million, a month - on - month increase of + 9.6%, and the sales volume was 1.715 million, a month - on - month increase of + 6.9%. The energy - storage demand remains high, but is restricted by the slowdown in capacity growth. Overseas energy - storage markets maintain high prosperity [32][46] - **Inventory**: Last week, the sample inventory was 118,400 tons, with a de - stocking of 2,052 tons, and the de - stocking speed slowed down. The warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased to 26,848 lots, with a de - stocking of 322 lots, and the inventory days of lithium carbonate decreased to 26.8 days [49] - **Strategy**: The market still has room for correction, but the strong real - world situation combined with the expectation that the 26Q1 off - season will not be weak provides support for prices. It is recommended to wait for the price to fall and stabilize before opportunistically buying LC2605 or more distant - month contracts at low prices [51][52]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is complex and diverse, with different trends and investment opportunities in various commodity sectors. Some sectors are affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand imbalances, and policy changes. For example, gold and silver may see potential price increases, while some base metals and energy chemicals may face downward pressure or be in a state of oscillation [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold Market - Market Performance: On Wednesday, precious metal prices strengthened. London gold broke through $4150 and closed at $4166 per ounce [2]. - Fundamentals: US envoy Witkoff will visit Moscow next week; the Russian president's press secretary said it's too early to talk about the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The number of initial jobless claims in the US unexpectedly decreased to 216,000 last week. The initial value of durable goods orders in the US in September increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and the growth rate of core capital goods orders accelerated to 0.9%. The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer announced a £26 billion tax - increase plan. ETFs continued to flow in, and there were changes in gold and silver inventories in different regions [2]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to buy gold at the lower support level. For silver, due to the re - emergence of overseas market tensions and significant price increases, short - term long positions can be considered [2]. Base Metals Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract decreased by 0.05% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 21,455 yuan/ton. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 110 yuan/ton, and the LME price was $2811 per ton [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. On the demand side, the weekly starting rate of aluminum products remained stable [3]. - Trading Strategy: With the increase in the expectation of interest rate cuts in December and the destocking of aluminum ingots this week, the aluminum price showed a technical rebound. It is expected that the price will maintain an oscillatory adjustment [3]. Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 0.26% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 2720 yuan/ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 14 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, there was no long - term maintenance and production reduction, and the operating capacity fluctuated slightly. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3]. - Trading Strategy: Alumina is still in the stage of game between supply - demand surplus and cost support, and the market is highly wait - and - see. It is expected that the alumina price will maintain an oscillatory and weak trend before large - scale production reduction [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: On Wednesday, the price fluctuated narrowly throughout the day. The main 01 contract closed at 9020 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 0.67%. The position decreased by 3390 lots to 260,000 lots, and the variety's settled funds increased by 16 million yuan [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the number of open furnaces decreased by 5 last week, and the starting rate in the southwest region is expected to drop by 50% in November. Social inventory increased slightly, and warehouse receipt inventory decreased slightly this week. On the demand side, the start - up of polysilicon supported the demand, and SMM expects the output in November to be 120,000 tons. Organic silicon monomer plants reached a consensus to support prices. The starting rate of aluminum alloy was relatively stable [3]. - Trading Strategy: Fundamentally, supply and demand are relatively stable. The downstream polysilicon and organic silicon industries are promoting anti - involution, supporting prices while the output decreases month - on - month. The disk is expected to operate in the range of 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: Yesterday, LC2605 closed at 96,340 yuan/ton (- 1000), with a closing price decrease of 1.03% [4]. - Fundamentals: The spot price of Australian spodumene concentrate (CIF China) was $1185 per ton, up $65 per ton from the previous day. SMM reported the price of electric carbon at 92,800 yuan/ton and industrial carbon at 90,400 yuan/ton. The weekly output last week reached a new high of 22,130 tons, an increase of 585 tons month - on - month. SMM expects the output in November to be 92,080 tons, a decrease of 0.2% month - on - month. In November, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate was 410,000 tons, a 4.0% increase from October and a 43.5% increase year - on - year. The production schedule of ternary materials was 85,000 tons, a 1.4% increase from October and a 39.8% increase year - on - year. It is expected to continue destocking from November to December, but the shortage will narrow in December. The sample inventory last week was 118,400 tons, a decrease of 2052 tons, and the destocking speed slowed down. The inventory was transferred to the trader link, and the high - level futures delayed the downstream price - fixing rhythm. The number of Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts was 27,050 lots (+ 435 lots) [4]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the inventory data after the Thursday session. The degree of destocking has a great impact on short - term price changes. If you hold long positions, it is recommended to pay close attention to the disk and set stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: On Wednesday, the disk rose rapidly after opening and then fluctuated narrowly throughout the day. The main 01 contract closed at 55,895 yuan/ton, up 1165 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 2.13%. The position increased by 13,966 lots to 143,000 lots, and the variety's settled funds increased by 777 million yuan. The 12 - 01 month spread rose to 3595. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7270 lots [4]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the weekly output decreased slightly. SMM expects the output in November to be 120,000 tons. The industry inventory increased this week, and the warehouse receipts continued to decrease as the warehouse receipt cancellation period approached. On the demand side, the prices of silicon wafers and battery cells decreased slightly. The production schedules of silicon wafers and battery cells in November decreased slightly compared with October. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in September was 9.66GW, a 53.8% decrease year - on - year and a 31.25% decrease month - on - month. The "Document 136" mechanism electricity price policy was intensively introduced in various provinces, and it is expected that the photovoltaic installed capacity in the fourth quarter in China will face pressure [4]. - Trading Strategy: Currently, the spot transaction price is between 53,000 - 55,000 yuan. The near - month disk may gradually strengthen due to the possibility of a short squeeze. It is expected that the downstream production schedule in December will decline at an accelerated pace. When the progress of the near - month storage platform is less than expected, there are many market rumors. It is necessary to distinguish the authenticity. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The main rebar 2601 contract closed at 3085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton compared with the night - session closing price of the previous trading day [5]. - Fundamentals: According to the Zhaogang data, the apparent demand for building materials decreased by 4.82 million tons month - on - month, and the output decreased by 50,000 tons to 442,000 tons. According to the Ganggu data, the apparent demand for building materials decreased by 130,000 tons to 3.64 million tons, and the output decreased by 120,000 tons. The supply and demand of steel are weak, and the structural differentiation is still significant. The demand for building materials is in the peak season, with a slight marginal improvement in demand but still weak year - on - year, and the supply also decreased significantly year - on - year, so the contradiction is limited. The demand for plates is stable, and direct and indirect exports remain high, but due to the high output, destocking is difficult. Rebar futures have a large discount and low valuation; the discount of hot - rolled coil futures is basically the same as the previous month, and the valuation is high. Steel mills continue to make losses, and the output may continue to decrease marginally and slightly [5]. - Trading Strategy: Exit and wait and see. Try to short the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract. The reference range for RB01 is 3050 - 3100 yuan/ton [5]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main iron ore 2601 contract closed at 792.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton compared with the night - session closing price of the previous trading day [5]. - Fundamentals: The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased by 2.71 million tons month - on - month and increased by 898,000 tons year - on - year. The arrivals increased by 24% month - on - month to 29.39 million tons and increased by 15% year - on - year. The inventory increased by 240,000 tons to 158 million tons compared with Thursday, a decrease of 3.8 million tons year - on - year. The supply and demand of iron ore are weak. According to the Steel Union data, the pig iron output decreased by 600,000 tons month - on - month and increased by 20,000 tons year - on - year. The third round of coke price increase has been implemented, and there is a game for the fourth round. Steel mills' profits are poor, and the subsequent blast furnace output may decrease steadily. The supply side conforms to the seasonal pattern and is slightly higher year - on - year. The supply and demand of iron ore are weakening marginally. Iron ore maintains a forward discount structure, but the absolute level remains at a relatively low level in the same period of history, and the valuation is moderately high [5]. - Trading Strategy: Exit and wait and see. Try to short the iron ore 2605 contract. The reference range for I01 is 780 - 800 yuan/ton [5]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1069 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton compared with the night - session closing price of the previous trading day [6]. - Fundamentals: The pig iron output decreased by 600,000 tons month - on - month to 2.363 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons year - on - year. Steel mills' profits are deteriorating, and the subsequent blast furnace output may decrease steadily. The third round of price increase has been implemented, and there is a game for subsequent price increases. The inventories at different supply - chain links are differentiated. The coking coal inventories and inventory days of steel mills and coking plants are at a moderate level in the same period of history, the pit - mouth inventory is low, and the overall inventory level is moderate. The futures are at a premium to the spot, and the forward premium structure is maintained. The futures valuation is high [6]. - Trading Strategy: Exit and wait and see. The reference range for JM01 is 1050 - 1100 yuan/ton [6]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - Market Performance: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose slightly [7]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the near - term supply is shrinking, but it is still a quantitative change. In the long - term, South America maintains the expectation of large supply in a normal year, but the overall annual output decreases year - on - year. Currently, South America is in the sowing and growing stage. On the demand side, US soybean crushing is strong, while exports are still in a game, depending on China's non - commercial procurement volume in the later stage. In general, the global supply - demand situation is improving marginally but still remains loose [7]. - Trading Strategy: US soybeans are expected to be in a state of oscillation; the domestic market is also expected to be oscillatory in the short - term, and the medium - term trend depends on the progress of tariff policies and the output in the producing areas [7]. Corn - Market Performance: Corn futures prices are running strongly, and corn spot prices continue to rise [7]. - Fundamentals: Weather factors have postponed the supply. Currently, the national corn channel inventory is at a low level, and there is a need for inventory building. The deep - processing profit is good, the demand is strong, and the acquisition intention is relatively high. The short - term supply - demand tightness has led to a rebound in spot prices. However, the arrival of new corn in Northeast China is approaching. The new crop is expected to increase in production, and the cost of corn has decreased significantly, which suppresses the long - term price expectation. Attention should be paid to weather and policy changes [7]. - Trading Strategy: Due to the short - term supply - demand mismatch, the futures price is running strongly. Attention should be paid to selling - hedging opportunities [7]. Edible Oils - Market Performance: The Malaysian palm oil market rose yesterday [7]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the output in the producing areas is high. MPOA estimates that the output from November 1 - 20 increased by 3.2% month - on - month. On the demand side, ITS estimates that the exports of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 25 decreased by 19% month - on - month. Overall, the near - term Malaysian palm oil inventory continues to accumulate, and the long - term inventory will decrease seasonally [7]. - Trading Strategy: Palm oil leads the decline in the edible oil market, and there are differences among varieties. Attention should be paid to the later output and biodiesel policies [7]. Sugar - Market Performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5391 yuan/ton, a 0.02% increase. The basis between the Guangxi spot price and the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract was 322 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of imported Brazilian sugar after processing and customs clearance was 752 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, the export situation of India in the later stage will affect the international trend. In the short - term, raw sugar is oscillating at a low level. In the long - term, the global production increase trend remains unchanged, and the 26/27 sugar - crushing season will continue to seek the bottom through oscillation. In China, new sugar is gradually coming onto the market. The expected increase in production in Guangxi has been significantly revised up, and the import pressure in October is prominent. The domestic pressure in the fourth quarter is relatively large, and the current decline has been realized and is coming to an end [7]. - Trading Strategy: In the futures market, it is recommended to go short at high levels; for options, it is recommended to sell call options [7]. Cotton - Market Performance: Overnight, US cotton futures prices rebounded, and international crude oil prices stopped falling and rebounded [8]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, as of October 9, the cumulative net signing of US cotton exports in the 25/26 season was 1.065 million tons, reaching 40.11% of the annual expectation, and the cumulative shipment was 318,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 29.89%. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated upward, and the Xinjiang basis decreased month - on - month. Currently, the increase in cotton prices supports textile enterprises to raise yarn prices [8]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips and mainly adopt the strategy of buying in the range of 13,500 - 13,800 yuan/ton [8]. Eggs - Market Performance: Egg futures prices rebounded, and egg spot prices were stable [8]. - Fundamentals: The number of laying hens in production decreased, and the number of culled hens was at a high level, so the supply pressure decreased. Egg prices dropped to a low level, and traders' willingness to stock up increased, driving sales to pick up. However, the inventory in the circulation link increased. The stock - up demand has driven egg prices to be strong in the short - term, but the sustainability is expected to be limited [8]. - Trading Strategy: The stock - up demand boosts egg prices, and futures prices are expected to oscillate [8]. Pigs - Market Performance: Pig futures prices rebounded, while pig spot prices continued to decline [8]. - Fundamentals: The supply of pigs is still abundant. The demand is expected to increase seasonally, and the supply - demand pressure has eased compared with the previous period. However, as the Winter Solstice approaches, there may be a wave of

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum is expected to see a price increase in 2025 due to significant supply shortages, with a predicted supply gap of 850,000 ounces. Its price is likely to follow an upward trend [2][35]. - Palladium's outlook in 2025 is bleak, with demand - side pressure. Its price is expected to range between $800 - 1200 per ounce and may experience weak oscillations [3][35]. - For trading strategies, a long - platinum and short - palladium approach is recommended, with a focus on buying platinum at low prices and selling palladium at high prices [4][5][36]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Contract Details - Platinum futures (PT) and palladium futures (PD) are listed on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange. Contract months are even - numbered months. The trading unit is 1000 grams per lot, the minimum price change is 0.05 yuan per gram, and the maximum single - order quantity is 1000 lots. The expected main contracts are PT2606 and PD2606 [7]. - Trading hours are from 9:00 - 11:30 am and 13:30 - 15:00 pm, Monday to Friday, with possible adjustments by the exchange [7]. - The minimum trading margin is 5% of the contract value, increasing in stages before the delivery month. The daily price limit is ±4% for non - delivery months and ±6% for delivery months [7]. - Contracts use physical delivery with a unit of 1000 grams. The delivery items must have a platinum/palladium content of at least 99.95%. The last trading day is the 10th trading day of the contract month, and the last delivery day is the 3rd trading day after the last trading day [8]. Fundamental Situation Industry Chain Overview - The global platinum and palladium industry chain is characterized by highly concentrated upstream supply, a game of refining and pricing power in the middle, and different downstream demands. South Africa dominates global platinum production, and Russia and South Africa together account for nearly 80% of global palladium production [9]. - China, as the largest consumer, has a low domestic mineral self - sufficiency rate and is highly dependent on imports. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has launched RMB - denominated platinum and palladium futures contracts to enhance pricing influence [9][11]. Upstream - Global platinum and palladium mining supply is geographically concentrated and faces supply pressure. In Q3 2025, major producers faced supply issues, especially in palladium production [15][21]. - Future new supply prospects are not optimistic, with few new or expanded projects. Most potential projects are in the early stages, and it will take at least five years to reach actual production [22]. Middle Stream - China's platinum and palladium supply is highly dependent on imports. In 2025, platinum imports are expected to decline, while palladium imports from Russia have increased significantly [25][27]. - Recycling is becoming an important growth point. China aims to increase the recycling volume of platinum - group metals to 70 tons by 2027, improving the domestic supply structure [26]. Downstream - Platinum demand is more diversified, with about 45% in the automotive catalyst field, 30% in industrial applications, 18% in jewelry processing, and 4% in investment. Palladium demand is highly concentrated, with 83% in automotive catalysts [30]. - In the automotive catalyst field, palladium demand is under downward pressure due to electrification and platinum substitution, while platinum demand is more resilient [32][33]. - In the industrial application field, platinum has a broader demand base, while palladium's demand is relatively limited [33]. - The hydrogen energy field is a growth area for platinum, while palladium has no obvious application [33]. - In the investment and jewelry fields, platinum is attracting more investment attention, while palladium has little demand and growth potential [34]. Price and Strategy Price Trends - Platinum prices are expected to rise due to supply shortages, with a significant supply gap and decreasing surface inventory. The one - month lease rate has soared [2][35]. - Palladium prices are expected to be weak due to demand - side pressure, with a predicted price range of $800 - 1200 per ounce [3][35]. Strategy Recommendations - For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to buy platinum at low prices and sell palladium at high prices [4][36]. - For the arbitrage strategy, a long - platinum and short - palladium approach is recommended based on the fundamental differences between the two metals [5][37][38].

金融研究 2025年11月26日 星期三 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 | | 月 股四大股指全线反弹，其中上证指数上涨 市场表现：11 25 日，A 0.87%，报收 3870.02 | | | 点；深成 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指上涨 1.53%，报收 12777.31 点；创业板指上涨 1.77%，报收 2980.93 点；科创 50 指数上涨 | 0.43%， | | | | | 报收 1302.17 点。市场成交 18,262 亿元，较前日增加 858 亿元。行业板块方面，通信(+3.54%)，传 | | | | | | 媒(+2.85%)，有色金属(+2.42%)涨幅居前；国防军工(-0.32%)，交通运输(-0.11%)，石油石化(+0.01%) | | | | | | 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,297/160/991。沪深两市，机构、 | | | | | | 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 111、-23、-62、-26 亿元，分别变动+133、+85、+14、-232 | | | | ...