Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On July 18, the four major A-share stock indices were all strong. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.5% to close at 3534.48 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.37% to close at 10913.84 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.34% to close at 2277.15 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.19% to close at 1007.53 points. Market turnover was 1593.3 billion yuan, an increase of 33 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, non-ferrous metals (+2.1%), basic chemicals (+1.36%), and steel (+1.34%) led the gains; media (-0.98%), electronics (-0.49%), and light manufacturing (-0.41%) led the losses [2]. - In terms of market strength, IH > IF > IC > IM. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2,600/247/2,567 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of -13.5 billion, -12.1 billion, 3.6 billion, and 22 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -25.9 billion, -6.7 billion, +13.1 billion, and +19.5 billion yuan respectively [2]. 2. Stock Index Futures - Basis: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 62.07, 45.61, 4.55, and -3.68 points respectively. The annualized basis yields were -11.28%, -8.9%, -1.33%, and 1.59% respectively, and the three - year historical quantiles were 29%, 18%, 45%, and 66% respectively [3]. - Trading strategy: In the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [3]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures - Spot bonds: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. For the 2 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250006.IB, with a yield change of -1 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.008, and an IRR of 1.56%; for the 5 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 240020.IB, with a yield change of +0.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.01, and an IRR of 1.57%; for the 10 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250007.IB, with a yield change of +0 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.041, and an IRR of 1.26%; for the 30 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of +1.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.031, and an IRR of 1.36% [4]. - Funding situation: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 187.5 billion yuan and withdrew 84.7 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 102.8 billion yuan [4]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium to long term [4]. 4. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the real estate market has recently contracted in terms of prosperity, while the manufacturing sector has seen a recovery in prosperity as industrial added value in June exceeded the same period [11].

2025年07月21日 星期一 商品期货早班车 单击此处输入文字。 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：上周贵金属价格继续高位震荡，白银录得新高。 | | 金 | 基本面：贝森特访日后释放乐观信号，会见石破茂后表示美日可以达成不错的贸易协议；继特朗普宣布 8 月 1 | | 属 | 日将生效的铜关税后，特朗普团队讨论对木材、芯片、关键矿产和药品发布征关税的公告。这些产品都是美 | | | 国商务部在进行的 232 调查对象；据报道特朗普推动对所有欧盟商品加征 15%-20%的最低关税。国内黄金 | | | ETF 前一交易日流入，COMEX 黄金库存 1154 吨，增加 11 吨；上期所黄金库存 28 吨，继续增加；伦敦 6 | | | 月黄金库存 8774 吨；上期所白银库存 1211 吨，减少 6 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存 1326 吨，增加 7 吨， | | | COMEX 白银库存 15448 吨，减少 16 吨；伦敦 6 月白银库存增加 421 吨至 23788 吨；印度 6 月白银进口约 | | | 200 吨左右。全球最大白银 etf-- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic conditions, and policy changes. Different trading strategies are recommended for each commodity based on their specific fundamentals and market performances [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum 2508 contract closed at 20475 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous trading day. The supply is increasing with a 2.6 - ton increase in weekly operating capacity, while demand is weak in the traditional off - season with a 0.1% drop in weekly aluminum product operating rate. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Alumina**: The alumina 2509 contract closed at 3111 yuan/ton, down 0.71% from the previous trading day. The supply is stable with no change in weekly operating capacity, and demand is stable as electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main 09 contract closed at 8745 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The total number of open furnaces increased by 3, with an overall open - furnace rate of 29.75%. Social inventory decreased slightly last week. The price is expected to fluctuate, mainly affected by the opening of furnaces in Xinjiang and the price trend of polysilicon [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main LC2509 contract closed at 67960 yuan/ton, up 2.47%. The supply in July is expected to be 81150 physical tons, a 3.92% increase month - on - month. The demand is expected to improve marginally but difficult to drive inventory reduction. The price is expected to fluctuate and rebound in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. Polysilicon - The main 09 contract closed at 45300 yuan/ton, breaking the record high. The price increase is related to the "anti - involution" and the expectation of supply - side reform. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand in the third - quarter photovoltaic installation market is pessimistic. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the leading enterprises' shipping prices and the acceptance of downstream customers [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2510 contract closed at 3166 yuan/ton. The building material supply and demand are both weak, but the inventory pressure is small due to low production. The overall steel supply - demand is balanced. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to chase long the rebar 2601 contract [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2509 contract closed at 797.5 yuan/ton. The iron ore supply - demand is marginally neutral, and the subsequent inventory accumulation may be slower than the seasonal pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to chase long the iron ore 2601 contract [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2509 contract closed at 938 yuan/ton. The overall supply - demand is still relatively loose but improving. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to chase long the coking coal 2601 contract [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight CBOT soybean rose, driven by US soybean oil. The supply is loose both in the near - term and long - term, and the demand depends on tariff policies. The domestic soybean price follows the international cost side. It is necessary to pay attention to the weather in the production area and tariff policies [4]. - **Corn**: The corn 2509 contract rebounded from the bottom. The annual supply - demand is tightening marginally, but the price is affected by substitutes and import grain auctions. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [4]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5825 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the future. It is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [4]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price fluctuated upward. The international cotton export sales decreased, while the domestic cotton price is affected by inventory changes in Xinjiang. It is recommended to buy on dips and use a range - trading strategy [4]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil price continued to rise overnight. The supply in the production area is weakening marginally, and the demand has support. It is expected to be strong in the short - term and tight annually [4]. - **Egg**: The egg 2508 contract fluctuated narrowly. The supply is high, and the price is expected to fluctuate due to cost support [4]. - **Live Pig**: The live pig 2509 contract opened low and closed high. The consumption is seasonally weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [4]. - **Apple**: The main contract closed at 7835 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The new - season early - maturing apple price has increased, but the current consumption is light. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The V09 contract closed at 4956 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to increase, and the social inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to gradually close short positions and wait and see [6]. - **PTA**: The PX CFR China price is 833 US dollars/ton, and the PTA East China spot price is 4730 yuan/ton. The PX supply - demand is in a de - stocking state, and the PTA supply - demand is tending to be loose. It is recommended to over - allocate PX and look for positive arbitrage opportunities in PTA in the short - term [6]. - **Glass**: The fg09 contract closed at 1093 yuan/ton, up 2%. The supply is expected to increase in the third quarter, and the inventory is decreasing. The valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see and track the implementation of production - cut policies [6]. - **MEG**: The East China spot price is 4437 yuan/ton. The supply is at a medium - high level, and the inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to short at high prices [7]. - **Crude Oil**: The oil price rose due to production reduction in Iraq and an unexpected decline in EIA crude oil inventory. The long - term supply is expected to be in surplus, and it is recommended to short at high prices and pay attention to inventory accumulation [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa09 contract closed at 1226 yuan/ton, up 1.1%. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating at a high level. The demand from the photovoltaic glass industry is weakening. It is recommended to short at high prices [7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy and recommend buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [2]. - For treasury bond futures, suggest medium - to long - term hedging of T and TL contracts on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Section Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On July 17, A - share major indices rose, with Shanghai Composite Index up 0.37% to 3516.83, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.43% to 10873.62, ChiNext Index up 1.75% to 2269.33, and STAR 50 Index up 0.8% to 1005.65. Market turnover was 1560.3 billion yuan, an increase of 98.5 billion yuan from the previous day. Defense and military (+2.74%), communication (+2.41%), and electronics (+2.18%) led the gains, while banking (-0.42%), transportation (-0.39%), and environmental protection (-0.26%) led the losses. IM>IC>IF>IH in terms of market strength, with 3535 stocks rising, 271 flat, and 1609 falling. Net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail funds were 12.4 billion, - 5.4 billion, - 9.5 billion, and 2.5 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +19.3 billion, +1.1 billion, - 9.7 billion, and - 10.7 billion yuan [2]. - **Basis and Yield**: The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts were 69.67, 51.86, 11.49, and 2.26 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 12.11%, - 9.69%, - 3.24%, and - 0.94%. Their three - year historical quantiles were 25%, 15%, 30%, and 39% respectively [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long - term bullish on the economy, recommend buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On July 17, most yields of treasury bond futures declined. The implied yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year bonds were 1.35 (down 0.4bps), 1.491 (down 0.48bps), 1.595 (down 0.22bps), and 1.923 (up 0.09bps) respectively [2]. - **Cash Bond**: The current active contract is 2509. The CTD bonds, yield changes, net basis, and IRR for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are provided [2]. - **Funding**: The central bank injected 450.5 billion yuan and withdrew 90 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 360.5 billion yuan [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest medium - to long - term hedging of T and TL contracts on rallies [2]. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the real - estate market's prosperity has recently contracted, while the other four indicators are similar to the same period [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester industry has certain demand resilience in 2025, but the growth height is limited. The downstream terminal demand is affected by the macro - situation, and the foreign demand faces challenges. The cost - side crude oil supply and demand tend to be in surplus, while PXN has strong support. PTA is in an expansion cycle with compressed industrial profits, and MEG has low - inventory and high - valuation characteristics, facing the pressure of inventory accumulation [1][5]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - **PX**: In the first half of 2025, the PX price fluctuated widely, and the absolute price mainly followed the trend of crude oil [8]. - **PTA**: In the first half of 2025, the PTA price also fluctuated widely following the crude oil [12]. - **MEG**: The MEG price was affected by crude oil, and its center of gravity moved downward [16]. 3.2 Polyester Demand - **Production and Demand Forecast**: It is estimated that the polyester production in 2025 will be about 78.28 million tons, with a demand growth rate of about 6%. The production in the first half of the year was about 39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 8%. The second - half demand will follow the seasonal pattern, but the overall height is limited due to the over - export in the first half [19]. - **New Capacity**: The planned new polyester capacity in 2025 is 6.3 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of about 8%. The new capacity in the first half of the year was 2.6 million tons, and 3.7 million tons are planned to be put into production in the second half. Bottle - chip production accounts for a large proportion, and the short - fiber production has little increase [22]. - **Inventory and Profit**: Except for bottle - chips, the inventory pressure of filament and short - fiber is not large. The polyester comprehensive profit in the first half of 2025 was low, with filament in a small - profit state, short - fiber's profit compressed in the off - season, and bottle - chips in a loss state. In the second half, the bottle - chip over - supply pattern will intensify, while the short - fiber profit may rise [25][28]. 3.3 Terminal Demand - In the first half of 2025, the domestic demand showed the characteristic of "peak season not prosperous". The downstream factories have low expectations and low enthusiasm for stockpiling. The domestic demand may be improved by policies, but the foreign orders may decrease in the second half [31][34]. 3.4 Cost Side - **Naphtha and Gasoline**: In the first half of 2025, the naphtha spread was at a high level, and it will remain strong in the second half. The gasoline cracking profit will maintain a neutral level, with obvious differentiation between peak and off - seasons [38]. - **PX Capacity and Supply**: Since 2024, PX has entered the end of the expansion cycle. In 2025, the new capacity is expected to be 3 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of about 5%. The new supply growth rate is only 1%, and the supply depends on the load of existing devices and imports. The PX valuation has strong support below, and the import volume is expected to increase in the second half [39][47][49]. - **PX Inventory**: In the first half of 2025, PX was in a state of destocking, with a destocking volume of about 900,000 tons. In the second half, there will be a certain supply - demand gap, and the destocking volume is expected to be 500,000 - 600,000 tons [52][53]. 3.5 PTA - **Capacity and Supply**: In 2025, the PTA capacity will continue to expand, with an expected new capacity of 8.7 million tons. The new supply pressure is large, with an average new production growth rate of 11%. The supply pressure will intensify after the commissioning of Honggang Petrochemical and Sanfangxiang in the middle of the year. The export volume has decreased, and the inventory accumulation pressure is large in the second half [56][59][69]. 3.6 MEG - **Capacity and Supply**: The MEG capacity growth rate has declined. In 2025, the planned new capacity is 1.6 million tons, and the new production growth rate is about 2.7%. The supply is expected to remain at a high level in the second half, and attention should be paid to the changes in existing devices [72][75]. - **Profit and Inventory**: The MEG profit in the second half of 2025 will face certain pressure. The import volume is expected to increase. The current inventory is at a low level, and it is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation stage in the third quarter [78][81][84]. 3.7 Trading Opportunities Outlook in the Middle of 2025 - **PX**: The PX price mainly follows the crude oil, with an absolute price range of 6,000 - 7,500 yuan/ton. Consider long - position opportunities at low levels, and 9 - 1 positive spreads or long - PXN at low levels [85]. - **PTA**: The PTA price follows the crude oil, with an absolute price range of 4,000 - 5,300 yuan/ton. The processing fee should be short - sold at high levels, and 9 - 1 positive spreads can be tried [86]. - **MEG**: The MEG price is expected to run weakly in the range of 3,800 - 4,600 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels, and pay attention to the long - TA and short - EG positions [87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, in the medium - to - long - term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips, and be aware of the basis regression risk of near - term contracts near the delivery date [2]. - For treasury bond futures, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts at high prices in the medium - to - long - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On July 16, most of the four major A - share stock indexes pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.03% to 3503.78 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.22% to 10720.81 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.22% to 2230.19 points. The STAR 50 Index rose 0.14% to 997.63 points. Market turnover was 1461.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 173.3 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, social services, automobiles, and pharmaceutical biology led the gains, while steel, banks, and non - ferrous metals led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IM>IC>IH>IF. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 3276, 211, and 1928 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 6.9 billion, - 6.5 billion, 200 million, and 13.2 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +3 billion, +9.1 billion, - 3.1 billion, and - 8.9 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Basis and Basis Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 89.26, 67.59, 22.6, and 9.7 points respectively, and the basis annualized yields were - 15.01%, - 12.21%, - 6.13%, and - 3.85% respectively. The three - year historical quantiles were 14%, 10%, 20%, and 26% respectively [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Near the delivery date, pay attention to the basis regression risk of near - term contracts. In the medium - to - long - term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips [2]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On July 16, the yields of treasury bond futures showed a pattern of short - term decline and long - term increase. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.36, a decrease of 1.06 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.502, a decrease of 0.12 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.602, an increase of 0.05 bps; the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 1.924, an increase of 0.09 bps [2]. - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. The CTD bonds, yield changes, corresponding net basis, and IRR of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are provided [2]. - **Funding Situation**: In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 520.1 billion yuan and withdrew 75.5 billion yuan, with a net injection of 444.6 billion yuan [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts at high prices in the medium - to - long - term [2]. 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the real - estate market sentiment has recently contracted, while the other four indicators are similar to the same period [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Long - term: Supply increases, demand peaks, and it's an era of small profits. A profit of 200 yuan per pig may be the price ceiling. Macroscopically, the government promotes a reasonable recovery of prices and uses reserve purchases to support the market. In terms of supply and demand, supply is expected to increase continuously after July (except for a slight decline in July), and the supply growth rate is faster than the demand growth rate before November. The supply - demand gap is expected to narrow at the end of the year. Pig prices are expected to be strong from July to August, then gradually decline under pressure, and have a seasonal rebound at the end of the year. Spot prices are expected to range from 13 - 16 yuan/kg, and futures prices from 12.5 - 15 yuan/kg. Opportunities to short at high prices can be considered from July to August, and industrial clients can consider selling hedging for far - month contracts after the high in the third quarter [58]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Long - term: Stable Supply, Peak Demand, and Era of Small Profits 3.1.1 Supply Dimension - **Concentration Increase and Stable Capacity**: Currently, the proportion of small - scale farmers' pig sales is 31.9% (91.3% in 2000), and that of large - scale enterprises is 68.1% (8.7% in 2000). Group farms are expanding rapidly, and small - scale farmers are exiting. With the increase in the concentration of large - scale breeding enterprises, their influence on pig prices has increased. The production capacity will be relatively stable as large - scale enterprises have stronger anti - risk capabilities [7]. - **Improvement in Production Efficiency**: There is still much room for improvement in China's pig production efficiency compared with foreign countries. For example, Denmark's PSY is as high as 34.14, while the UK's is 26.64. In 2022, the daily weight gain in Denmark and Sweden exceeded 1000 grams. With stable and slightly increasing capacity, higher large - scale proportion, and improved production efficiency, the supply from leading enterprises will continue to increase [10]. 3.1.2 Consumption Dimension - **Peak in Pork Consumption**: In 2014 and 2023, pig prices were low and there were breeding losses, indicating oversupply. The similar pork production in 2014 and 2023 shows that domestic demand may have saturated at around 58 million tons, suggesting that China's pork consumption may have peaked in 2014 [13]. 3.1.3 Supply - Demand and Profit - **Gradually Loosening Supply - Demand and Small Profits**: China's population decline is faster than expected, which will lead to a decrease in pork consumption in the long run. The total pork consumption is the product of the total population and per - capita consumption. With a negative population growth and a possible peak in per - capita pork consumption, the total demand is weakening. A profit of about 200 yuan per pig corresponds to a cost increase of 2 yuan/kg [17][18]. 3.2 Medium - and Short - Term: Sufficient Supply and Lower Price Center 3.2.1 Supply Side - **Adequate Capacity**: As of the end of May 2025, the national inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million, 103.64% of the normal inventory of 39 million, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%, indicating sufficient breeding sow capacity [21]. - **Weak Will to Reduce Capacity**: There is a lack of strong motivation among producers to reduce production capacity as shown by relevant profit and sow culling data [23][24][25]. - **Continuous Improvement in Production Efficiency**: Indicators such as the breeding - farrowing rate, piglet survival rate, litter size of healthy piglets, and fattening pig survival rate have shown an upward trend, indicating continuous improvement in production efficiency [29]. - **Increasing Slaughter**: In the first half of the year, the national pig slaughter was 366.19 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. Except for a slight decline in July, the slaughter volume is expected to increase continuously, and the pig price center is expected to decline accordingly [36]. - **Increasing Second - Fattening Pressure**: The enthusiasm for second - fattening was similar to last year from February to April this year, reaching a peak in mid - April and then declining rapidly. However, the utilization rate of second - fattening pens has recently increased rapidly, indicating that the supply pressure is postponed, and the subsequent second - fattening slaughter pressure will increase [39]. - **Increasing Slaughter Weight**: This year's pig slaughter weight is at a four - year high, with an average increase of 3 kg compared to last year. Due to low feed costs, enterprise breed improvement, and favorable standard - fat price spreads, large - scale enterprises have generally increased the slaughter weight. The game between large - scale enterprises and small - scale farmers makes weight reduction uncertain [43]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - **Seasonal Weakening of Slaughter Volume**: The pig slaughter volume shows a seasonal weakening trend [44]. 3.2.3 Price - **Widening Standard - Fat Price Spread and Rebounding Piglet Price**: The standard - fat price spread has widened, and the piglet price has rebounded [46]. 3.2.4 Policy - **CPI and Policy Actions**: The government aims to promote a reasonable recovery of prices. Relevant policies include large - scale enterprises not increasing the number of breeding sows, reducing the slaughter weight to 120 kg, and banning the second - fattening of the head part [51]. - **Pork Reserve Early - Warning and Adjustment Mechanism**: The mechanism has different early - warning levels and corresponding reserve adjustment measures for both excessive price drops and rises. As of June 11, the official pig - grain ratio was 6.12, in the third - level early - warning, and frozen meat reserve purchases were initiated in advance [52][54].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For precious metals, the de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, suggesting going long on gold; for silver, short - term risk avoidance is recommended, but there are still short - selling opportunities in the long run [2]. - For basic metals, aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at high levels, and it is recommended to wait and see; alumina prices are expected to oscillate, and it is also recommended to wait and see [3]. - For industrial silicon, the futures market is expected to oscillate widely; for lithium carbonate, prices are expected to oscillate and rebound in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For polysilicon, it is recommended to partially take profit on long positions [4]. - For black industries, for steel, it is recommended to wait and see and try the 10/1 reverse spread for rebar; for iron ore, it is recommended to wait and see and layout long positions for the 2605 coil - ore ratio; for coking coal, it is recommended to wait and see [5][6]. - For agricultural products, for soybean meal, it is recommended to follow the international cost side and pay attention to production area weather and tariff policies; for corn, futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly; for sugar, it is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options; for cotton, it is recommended to buy on dips; for palm oil, it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term; for eggs, futures prices are expected to oscillate; for live pigs, futures prices are expected to oscillate and adjust; for apples, it is recommended to wait and see [7][8]. - For energy chemicals, for LLDPE, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts at high prices in the long term; for PVC, it is recommended to wait and see; for PX, it is recommended to be long - allocated, and for PTA, short - term positive spreads can be considered, and short - selling processing fees at high prices in the long term; for rubber, it is recommended to use a wide - range oscillation strategy; for glass, it is recommended to wait and see; for PP, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts at high prices in the long term; for MEG, it is recommended to go short at high prices; for EB, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts at high prices in the long term; for soda ash, it is recommended to go short at high prices [10][11]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On Wednesday, precious metal prices fluctuated significantly. Gold once rose more than 1% during the session due to market rumors [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Fed officials expect the impact of tariffs on inflation to increase; US June PPI was lower than expected; there were changes in gold and silver inventories in various regions [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go long on gold; short - term risk avoidance for silver, but there are short - selling opportunities in the long run [2]. Basic Metals Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2508 contract decreased by 1.09% from the previous trading day [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly operating capacity increased; it was the traditional consumption off - season, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at high levels, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 1.08% from the previous trading day [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Alumina plant production was stable, and the weekly operating capacity remained unchanged; electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Alumina prices are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: On Wednesday, the main 09 contract opened lower and oscillated. The closing price decreased by 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In the supply side, Yunnan's start - up rate was 29%, and social inventory decreased slightly; in the demand side, polysilicon start - up was stable, organic silicon production was stable, and the downstream demand for aluminum alloy entered the off - season [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: The futures market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main LC2509 contract rose 0.39% due to market concerns about mining rights issues, but there was no short - term shutdown risk [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the expected production of lithium carbonate increased; the import price of lithium spodumene concentrate rose; downstream production increased, but inventory reached a new high [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Prices are expected to oscillate and rebound in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: On Wednesday, the main 08 contract opened lower and oscillated upward, with an increase in open interest [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures market rose significantly this week due to supply - side reform expectations; supply increased slightly, and demand decreased [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is recommended to partially take profit on long positions [4]. Black Industries Rebar Steel - **Market Performance**: The main 2510 contract rebounded after reaching the bottom, rising 22 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Building material supply and demand were both weak, but inventory pressure was small; plate demand stabilized, and exports remained high; steel supply and demand were balanced, and the futures discount narrowed [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is recommended to wait and see and try the 10/1 reverse spread [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2509 contract oscillated strongly, rising 16 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Australian and Brazilian shipments and arrivals increased; iron ore supply and demand were neutral, and the inventory build - up might be slower than the seasonal pattern [5][6]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is recommended to wait and see and layout long positions for the 2605 coil - ore ratio [6]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2509 contract oscillated horizontally, falling 1 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Iron water production decreased slightly, and the first round of coke price increase was implemented; supply - side inventory was divided, and overall supply and demand were relatively loose [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rebounded overnight [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply was loose in the near and far term, and the demand was variable [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: Follow the international cost side and pay attention to production area weather and tariff policies [7]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract continued to decline, and spot prices showed different trends in different regions [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply and demand tightened marginally, but there were factors suppressing prices [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [7]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The 09 contract closed at 5801 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.05% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic and international markets rebounded jointly, but there was pressure on prices due to imports [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go short in the futures market and sell call options [7]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Overnight, US cotton prices oscillated narrowly, and international oil prices stopped falling and rebounded [7][8]. - **Fundamentals**: International and domestic cotton markets had different situations, and there were factors affecting prices [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Buy on dips [8]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The short - term trading center continued to move up [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased marginally, and demand decreased month - on - month but had year - on - year support [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [8]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The 2508 contract declined slightly, and spot prices were stable [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was high, demand was affected by the weather, and prices were expected to oscillate [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate [8]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract's decline widened, and spot prices fell across the board [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Consumption weakened seasonally, supply increased, and prices were weak [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [8]. Apples - **Market Performance**: The main contract closed at 7840 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.28%, and spot prices were stable [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The opening price of new - season early - maturing apples rose, but current consumption was light [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. Energy Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main contract oscillated slightly, with a weakening basis and general market transactions [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic supply increased, and imports were expected to decrease; demand improved marginally [10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Oscillate weakly in the short term, and go short on far - month contracts at high prices in the long term [10]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The 09 contract closed at 4933, with a decline of 1.1% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was expected to increase, and inventory accumulated [10]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. PX and PTA - **Market Performance**: PX CFR China price was 834 US dollars/ton, and PTA East China spot price was 4720 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: PX supply was at a medium level, and PTA supply increased; polyester load decreased, and inventory was high [10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Long - allocate PX, consider short - term positive spreads for PTA, and short - sell processing fees at high prices in the long term [10]. Rubber - **Market Performance**: On Wednesday, rubber prices oscillated strongly, and the main contract rose 0.55% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Raw material prices were supported, and inventory was expected to decrease [10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Use a wide - range oscillation strategy [10]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The 09 contract closed at 1070, with a decline of 1.1% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was expected to increase, inventory decreased, and downstream demand was general [10]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main contract declined slightly, with a strengthening basis and general market transactions [11]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, and demand was differentiated; the export window reopened [11]. - **Trading Strategies**: Oscillate weakly in the short term, and go short on far - month contracts at high prices in the long term [11]. MEG - **Market Performance**: East China spot price was 4400 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 70 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was at a high level, and inventory was at a low level; polyester load decreased slightly [11]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expected to run weakly, and go short at high prices [11]. EB - **Market Performance**: The main contract oscillated slightly, and market transactions were general [11]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side inventory had different trends, and demand was under pressure; the import window was closed [11]. - **Trading Strategies**: Oscillate weakly in the short term, and go short on far - month contracts at high prices in the long term [11]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The 09 contract closed at 1208, with a decline of 1.4% [11]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, inventory accumulated, and downstream demand was weak [11]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is recommended to go short at high prices [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a bullish stance on stocks and commodities in the long - term, driven by global fiscal support for the economy and the shift in monetary policy. In the short - term, it is necessary to focus on the marginal effect of fiscal policy in the third quarter, the Politburo meeting at the end of July, and whether the US will rally other countries against China. [73] - There is a trend of asset spillover, including US assets flowing to non - US and alternative assets, and Chinese fixed - income assets flowing to low - volatility stocks (banks and neutral stocks). The "asset shortage" has shifted towards a better match between liquidity and assets, and stocks and commodities tend to move in tandem. [73] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Fiscal Dominance in the Kondratieff Winter - Fiscal policy determines the economic performance differences among global countries in the past few years due to high leverage ratios in the household and corporate sectors. All countries are expanding fiscal spending. [13] - China's exports have been strong, as shown by the economic formula \(Y = C + I + G+(X - M)=C + S+T\), and \(M - X=(I - S)+(G - T)\). [13] - Fiscal spending shows a "front - loaded high, back - loaded low" pattern this year. The remaining quota in the second half of 2024 was close to 8 trillion, while in 2025 it is only close to 6 trillion. Local government bond net financing has been high, reaching 4.6 trillion, with replacement bond issuance exceeding 1.8 trillion and a nearly 90% issuance progress. In the third quarter, special bond issuance is expected to be 2 trillion, lower than 2.56 trillion in 2024 and close to 1.98 trillion in 2023. [16] - The 300 - billion - yuan ultra - long - term special treasury bond is used to stimulate consumption. It has various subsidy policies for home appliances, new energy vehicles, and other fields, with different subsidy standards for different regions. Some localities have faced issues such as running out of funds, and future adjustments will shift from "universal" to "precise" regulation. [17] 3.2. Why Involution? Why Anti - Involution? - Involution refers to the serious deviation of production factor prices. The current supply - side reform emphasizes "quality improvement" rather than "quantity reduction" and is aimed at long - term high - quality development, which is different from the previous one. [47] - In June, the year - on - year CPI increased by 0.1%, and the PPI decreased by 3.6%, with the PPI - CPI gap continuing to widen. Fiscal policy has addressed the "quantity" issue, and there is no intention to use monetary policy to solve the "price" problem. [51] - Most industries show "quantity increase" but "price decrease." The real estate market has shifted from "price - for - quantity" to a situation of both quantity and price decline. [52][53] - The trade war has compressed profits and costs in an economy that relies on foreign trade. Coal and electricity prices have decreased to benefit downstream industries. [57][59] - There are signs of active inventory replenishment in industrial enterprises, but inventory cycle prediction should not be dogmatic. The commodity index leads the PPI by two months and seems to have bottomed out, and the PMI also shows signs of improvement. [65][66][68] 3.3. Some Conclusions on Major Asset Classes - **Stocks**: The dumbbell strategy is still applicable. Although the market is bullish, it is not recommended to chase high prices at present, especially for small - and micro - cap stocks. [84] - **Commodities**: - The bullish sentiment in the current round may last until the end of this month or early next month. There are many opportunities in different sectors, but no comprehensive ones. Volatility will increase after the release of global liquidity. [85][88] - Precious metals are worth long - term allocation to hedge against currency credit risks, but they need an "asset shortage" scenario to continue rising. [87] - Base metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, and tin have supply disruptions and long - term supply shortages, with positive demand prospects driven by technological trends. However, they lack short - term drivers. New - energy metals like lithium carbonate and industrial silicon are in a supply - demand surplus, and it is recommended to use range - trading strategies. [87] - The black metal sector is in an overall supply - demand surplus, and it is advisable to observe supply disruptions and demand verification. Iron ore is a good long - position after a decline, while coal and soda ash are suitable for short - positions after an increase. [87] - In the energy and chemical sector, attention should be paid to the impact of raw materials on the overall valuation. With excess supply of oil and coal and a shortage of gas, the profit of downstream chemical products is difficult to expand under the current situation of low demand and ongoing large - scale capacity expansion. [87]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on gold. For silver, short - term risks should be avoided, but there are still short - selling opportunities in the long run [3]. - For basic metals, the prices of electrolytic aluminum and alumina are expected to fluctuate, zinc and lead prices may face downward pressure, while industrial silicon and lithium carbonate prices may be strong in the short term [4][6]. - In the black industry, the supply - demand of steel, iron ore, and coking coal is relatively balanced, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - In the agricultural product market, the prices of soybean meal, corn, and sugar may show different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are provided for each [8][9]. - In the energy and chemical industry, most products' supply - demand patterns are expected to become looser in the long term, and short - selling or waiting - and - seeing strategies are recommended [11][12][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Market - **Market Performance**: Tuesday saw precious metal prices fluctuating, with silver relatively strong. US core CPI in June increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and there were various international trade news. Gold and silver inventories in different regions changed [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Recommend going long on gold. For silver, avoid short - term risks and close long positions, but there are long - term short - selling opportunities [3]. Basic Metals Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of electrolytic aluminum 2508 contract decreased by 1.30% compared to the previous trading day, and the closing price of alumina 2509 contract increased by 0.64% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, while the traditional consumption off - season led to a decline in the weekly aluminum product start - up rate. Alumina plants had stable production [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For electrolytic aluminum, it is recommended to wait and see as the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. For alumina, it is recommended to conduct range operations and partially close long positions [4]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of zinc 2507 contract decreased by 0.77% compared to the previous trading day [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was expected to increase, and demand was weakening [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Recommend short - selling on rallies [6]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The closing price of lead 2507 contract decreased by 0.85% compared to the previous trading day [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was recovering, and demand was weak [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Recommend cautious short - selling [6]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 09 contract rose by 90 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased slightly in Yunnan last week, and social inventory decreased slightly. Demand in different sectors had different performances [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [6]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main LC2509 contract rose by 0.21% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was expected to increase in July, and demand was expected to improve marginally but difficult to drive inventory reduction [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see as the price is expected to rebound in the short term [6]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 09 contract rose by 90 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The market was concerned about supply - side reform, supply increased slightly, and demand in some sectors decreased [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Partially close long positions [6]. Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The main 2510 contract of rebar fluctuated and closed lower [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - demand was relatively balanced, and inventory pressure was small [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and try the 10/1 reverse spread of rebar [7]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2509 contract fluctuated sideways and closed slightly higher [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - demand was neutral, and inventory accumulation might be slower than the seasonal pattern [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and layout long positions on the 2605 coil - to - ore ratio [7]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2509 contract fluctuated weakly and closed lower [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - demand was relatively loose, and the fundamentals were improving slowly [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [7]. Agricultural Product Market Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans continued to decline [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was expected to be loose, and demand was variable [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term soybeans are weak, and domestic soybean meal follows the international cost side. Pay attention to weather and tariff policies [8][9]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price rose and fell [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - demand tightened marginally, but there were factors suppressing the price [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [9]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The 09 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5810 yuan/ton, up 0.14% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic and international markets rebounded jointly, but the price may be weak in the future [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go short in the futures market and sell call options [9]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Overnight, US cotton prices rebounded [9]. - **Fundamentals**: International and domestic cotton production and demand had different situations [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips and adopt a range - trading strategy [9]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil prices fell, but the short - term focus was moving up [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased marginally, and demand had support [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to over - allocate in the sector [9]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract rose slightly, and the spot price was stable [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was high, and demand was affected by price and weather [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate [9]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price fell [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Consumption weakened seasonally, and supply increased [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [9]. Apples - **Market Performance**: The main contract closed at 7862 yuan/ton, up 0.31% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The opening price of new - season early - maturing apples rose, but current consumption was light [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [10]. Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main contract fell slightly, and the import window was closed [11]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, and demand improved marginally [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly; in the long term, go short on far - month contracts on rallies [11]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The 09 contract closed at 4960, down 0.6% [11]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was expected to increase, and inventory accumulated [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close short positions and wait and see [11]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PX and PTA prices had certain relationships [11]. - **Fundamentals**: PX supply was medium, and PTA supply pressure was large in the long term [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on PX, and look for short - term positive spread opportunities for PTA, and short - sell processing fees on rallies in the long term [11]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The 09 contract closed at 1069, down 1.2% [12]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply may increase, and inventory decreased [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [12]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main contract fell slightly, the import window was closed, and the export window was opened [12]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, and demand was differentiated [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly; in the long term, go short on far - month contracts on rallies [12]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The spot price was 4408 yuan/ton, and the basis was 68 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was high, and inventory was at a low level [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go short on rallies [12]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices fell due to reduced supply - risk expectations [12]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was expected to increase, and the market was concerned about inventory [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go short on rallies by paying attention to inventory accumulation [12]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main contract fell slightly, and the import window was closed [12]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was expected to increase, and demand improvement was limited [12][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly; in the long term, go short on far - month contracts on rallies [13]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The 09 contract closed at 1211, down 1.2% [13]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was normal, and inventory accumulated [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go short on rallies [13].