1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides trading strategies and market analyses for various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It takes into account factors such as supply - demand dynamics, macro - economic conditions, and policy changes to make investment suggestions [2][6][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Given that the Fed's independence is questioned, the de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and the probability of Fed rate cuts has increased significantly, it is recommended to go long on gold. Silver has followed gold's rally, and there are short - term long - trading opportunities due to its entry into the US critical minerals list and the threat of increased tariffs [2]. - **Silver**: Follows gold's trend. With the threat of increased tariffs after entering the US critical minerals list, there are short - term long - trading opportunities [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The market showed a volatile trend. With the Fed's independence challenged, the dollar index weakened, and market concerns about radical rate cuts emerged. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased slightly. With signs of improvement in the macro - environment and industry supply - demand, and the approaching peak season, it is expected that the price will be volatile and bullish, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Alumina**: The price of the main contract decreased. The fundamentals remain in an oversupply situation, and it is not advisable to chase short positions. If holding spot, one can sell call options [2][4]. - **Zinc**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. Supply has increased significantly, while consumption is in the off - season. It is recommended to sell on rallies [4]. - **Lead**: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. Supply is expected to tighten, but the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to conduct range trading [4]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main contract fluctuated. The supply side has some issues, and the demand side is mixed. The price is expected to oscillate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price of the main contract decreased. Supply is strong while demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production restrictions [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the main contract was weak. The supply - demand of building materials is neutral to weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions in the 2510 contract [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main contract was weak. The supply - demand is neutral to strong, but the margin is slightly weakening. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the main contract decreased. The supply - demand is relatively loose, and it is recommended to hold short positions in the 2601 contract [6]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term US soybeans are bullish, while the domestic market is affected by negotiation expectations and state reserves sales. The medium - term trend depends on tariff policies [7]. - **Corn**: The futures are expected to oscillate after continuous declines, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Sugar**: The international market is affected by Brazil's production, and the domestic market shows signs of stabilization. It is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options in the options market [8]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton has some growth issues, and the domestic market is concerned about spot shortages. It is recommended to buy on dips and use a range - trading strategy between 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Palm Oil**: The supply - demand is increasing, with near - term inventory accumulation and long - term tightness expected. The overall outlook for oils is bullish, but trading becomes more difficult after the valuation rises [8]. - **Apples**: The price of early - maturing apples has declined, but farmers' expectations for late - maturing apples support the market. The market is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Eggs**: The futures are expected to oscillate after continuous declines, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Pigs**: The spot price is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see in the futures market [9]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate. In the long term, as new devices are put into operation, the supply - demand will become looser, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads [10]. - **PVC**: The price decreased. The trading driver is unclear, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **PTA**: In the short term, the supply has tightened significantly, but the sustainability is uncertain. In the long term, the supply pressure is large, and it is recommended to short the processing margin of far - month contracts [10][11]. - **Rubber**: With inventory reduction and strong raw material support, it is recommended to buy on dips [11]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand is weak, but the downside is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **PP**: In the short term, the market is expected to be weakly oscillating. In the long term, as new devices are put into operation, the supply - demand will become looser, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads [11]. - **MEG**: With low inventory providing support, but medium - term inventory accumulation pressure, it is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to peak - season orders [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The market is expected to be in surplus, and it is recommended to short the SC main contract near 500 yuan/barrel [12]. - **Styrene**: In the short term, the market is expected to be weakly oscillating. In the long term, as supply recovers, the supply - demand will become looser, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts or short the profit margin [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The downside is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand is seasonally strengthening, and it is recommended to go long [12].

Report Overview - The report is a financial futures morning report released by China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. on August 27, 2025, covering the performance and trading strategies of stock index futures and treasury bond futures on August 26, 2025 [1][2] Market Performance Stock Index Futures - On August 26, the four major A-share stock indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.39% to 3,868.38 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.26% to 12,473.17 points, the ChiNext Index fell 0.76% to 2,742.13 points, and the STAR 50 Index fell 1.31% to 1,270.87 points. Market turnover was 2.7098 trillion yuan, a decrease of 467.1 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (+2.62%), beauty care (+2.04%), and basic chemicals (+1.26%) led the gains, while pharmaceutical biology (-1.09%), non-bank finance (-1.06%), and steel (-0.98%) led the losses [2] - From the perspective of market strength, IC > IM > IF > IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2,802/152/2,469 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large, and retail investors had net inflows of -19.2 billion, -26.8 billion, 3.1 billion, and 42.8 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -5.3 billion, +3.6 billion, -2.2 billion, and +3.9 billion yuan respectively [2] - The basis of the next-month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 113.87, 82.87, 10.99, and -2.22 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were -11.54%, -9.01%, -1.87%, and 0.57% respectively, with three-year historical quantiles of 28%, 18%, 39%, and 51% respectively [2] Treasury Bond Futures - On August 26, the yields of treasury bond futures mostly declined. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two-year bond was 1.383, up 0.53 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five-year bond was 1.612, down 0.12 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten-year bond was 1.735, down 1.42 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty-year bond was 2.079, down 1.94 bps [2] - In terms of cash bonds, the current active contract is the 2512 contract. The CTD bond of the two-year treasury bond futures is 250012.IB, with a yield change of -0.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.004, and an IRR of 1.5%; the CTD bond of the five-year treasury bond futures is 250003.IB, with a yield change of -0.8 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.029, and an IRR of 1.4%; the CTD bond of the ten-year treasury bond futures is 220017.IB, with a yield change of -0.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.123, and an IRR of 1.09%; the CTD bond of the thirty-year treasury bond futures is 210005.IB, with a yield change of -2 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.222, and an IRR of 0.96% [2] - In terms of the money market, in open market operations, the central bank injected 405.8 billion yuan and withdrew 580.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 174.5 billion yuan [2] Trading Strategies Stock Index Futures - In the medium to long term, the report maintains the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index futures as a long substitute has certain excess returns, and it is recommended to allocate long-term contracts of various varieties on dips. In the short term, there are signs of market cooling [2] Treasury Bond Futures - With the upward shift in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium to long term [2] Economic Data - High-frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each commodity, taking into account factors such as supply and demand, macro - economic conditions, and policy changes. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market price strengthened on Tuesday. Trump's actions and statements increased the probability of Fed rate - cuts. Domestic gold ETF funds had a small outflow, and inventories in some exchanges remained stable. Suggested to go long on gold [1]. - **Silver**: Followed gold's sharp rise, but with continuous inventory reduction. Recommended to temporarily stay on the sidelines [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Price oscillated strongly. Trump's intervention weakened the US dollar, supporting metals. With a tight copper ore supply and a strong market expectation of rate - cuts, it is advisable to buy on dips [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased slightly. Supply increased slightly, and demand improved. With the approaching peak season, it is expected that the price will oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Alumina**: The price of the main contract decreased significantly. Supply was stable, and demand was from high - load electrolytic aluminum plants. The fundamental situation was in surplus, and it is not advisable to short excessively. Those holding spot can sell call options [2]. - **Zinc**: The price of the main contract decreased. Supply increased significantly, and consumption was in the off - season. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. - **Lead**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. Supply was expected to tighten, and consumption was in the off - season. It is recommended to trade within a range [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price oscillated downward. Supply and demand were both in a complex situation. The price is expected to oscillate between 8200 - 9200, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract decreased. Supply decreased, and demand increased. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait for stabilization and then buy on dips or buy call options when volatility drops [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price decreased. Supply increased, and demand was relatively stable. The price is expected to fluctuate between 45000 - 53000, and it is recommended to pay attention to production control during the transition period [3][4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the main contract oscillated weakly. Supply increased, and demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to hold short positions on the 2510 contract [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main contract oscillated weakly. Supply and demand were moderately strong, but the margin was weakening. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the main contract decreased. Supply and demand were relatively loose, but the fundamentals were improving. It is recommended to hold short positions on the 2601 contract [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Near - term US soybean supply is expected to shrink, and long - term South American production is expected to increase. Short - term US soybeans are strong, while the domestic market is affected by negotiations and reserve sales. It is necessary to pay attention to future tariff policies [6]. - **Corn**: The price of the 2511 contract oscillated narrowly, and the spot price decreased. Wheat substitution and increased imports put pressure on the price. After continuous decline, the futures are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Sugar**: The price of the 01 contract decreased. International Brazilian production is the main factor, and domestic prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton price decreased, and the domestic price stopped falling and rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips and trade within the range of 14000 - 14500 [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The price continued to decline. Supply is in the seasonal growth period, and demand is improving. In the short - term, it is affected by trade negotiations, and in the medium - term, it is still bullish. It is necessary to pay attention to production in the producing areas and bio - diesel policies [6]. - **Eggs**: The price of the 2510 contract oscillated narrowly, and the spot price increased. Supply was sufficient, and demand might increase seasonally. After continuous decline, the futures are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Live Pigs**: The price of the 2511 contract oscillated narrowly, and the spot price decreased. Supply was sufficient, and consumption was gradually recovering. The spot price is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see for futures [7]. - **Apples**: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. The price of early - maturing apples decreased, but farmers still had expectations for late - maturing varieties. The current price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. Supply increased, and demand improved. In the short - term, it will oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short far - month contracts on rallies [8]. - **PVC**: The price of the V01 contract decreased. Supply increased, and demand was average. The trading driver is not clear, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Glass**: The price of the fg01 contract decreased. Supply was stable, and demand was average. The price is expected to decline slightly, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **PP**: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. Supply increased, and demand improved with the approaching peak season. In the short - term, it will oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short far - month contracts on rallies [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The price decreased. Supply pressure increased, and demand was relatively stable. It is recommended to short on rallies near the 520 yuan/barrel level of the SC main contract [9]. - **Styrene**: The price of the main contract decreased. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is in the off - season. In the short - term, it will oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short far - month contracts on rallies [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of the SA01 contract decreased. Supply decreased, and demand was stable. The price decline space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of the sh01 contract decreased. Supply decreased, and demand increased seasonally. It is recommended to go long [10].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Long - term**: Maintain a bullish view on the economy, recommend long - term allocation of forward contracts of various stock index varieties; suggest medium - and long - term hedging for T and TL contracts when prices are high due to rising risk appetite and economic recovery expectations [2][3]. - **Short - term**: The market shows signs of cooling [2]. 3. Summary by Directory (1) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - **Market Movement**: On August 25, the four major A - share stock indices all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.51% to 3883.56 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 2.26% to 12441.07 points, the ChiNext Index up 3% to 2762.99 points, and the STAR 50 Index up 3.2% to 1287.73 points. Market turnover was 31,769 billion yuan, an increase of 5,981 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, communication (+4.85%), non - ferrous metals (+4.63%), and real estate (+3.32%) led the gains; beauty care (+0.01%), textile and apparel (+0.17%), and petroleum and petrochemicals (+0.39%) led the losses. The strength order was IH>IF>IC>IM, with the number of rising/flat/falling stocks being 3,349/178/1,896 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of - 139, - 304, 53, and 390 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 280, - 135, +252, and +163 billion yuan respectively [1]. - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 112.73, 75.1, - 2.38, and - 3.15 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 11.08%, - 7.94%, 0.39%, and 0.77% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 30%, 24%, 63%, and 53% respectively [1]. (2) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - **Yield Movement**: On August 25, the yields of treasury bond futures declined. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.372, down 4.78 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.62, down 3.47 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.755, down 2.83 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 2.102, down 4 bps [2]. - **CTD Bond Information**: For the 2512 contract, the CTD bond of the two - year treasury bond futures was 250012.IB, with a yield change of - 1.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.015, and an IRR of 1.57%; the five - year was 250003.IB, with a yield change of - 1.2 bps, a net basis of 0.023, and an IRR of 1.45%; the ten - year was 220017.IB, with a yield change of - 3 bps, a net basis of 0.099, and an IRR of 1.25%; the thirty - year was 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 3.5 bps, a net basis of 0.286, and an IRR of 0.84% [2]. (3) Economic Data - **High - frequency Data**: High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [11]. - **Funding**: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 2,884 billion yuan and withdrew 2,665 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 219 billion yuan [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided about the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased significantly. It is recommended to go long on gold and temporarily exit and wait and see for silver [1]. - For base metals, it is advisable to buy copper at dips, go long on aluminum at dips, and if holding alumina spot, one can sell call options opportunistically. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see, while for lithium carbonate, short - term wait - and - see is advised, and then go long with a small position after stabilization or buy call options when volatility declines. For polysilicon, one can try to go long lightly on dips. For tin, it is recommended to buy at dips [1][2][3]. - In the black industry, it is recommended to wait and see on the margin for steel products, try to short the rebar 2510 contract, wait and see mainly for iron ore, and try to short the coking coal 2601 contract [4][5]. - In the agricultural product market, for soybean meal, it is recommended to follow the international cost - end and oscillate strongly, paying attention to tariff policies. For corn, wait and see after continuous decline. For sugar, go short in the futures market and sell call options. For cotton, buy at dips and use an oscillating strategy in the 14000 - 14500 yuan/ton range. For palm oil, it is still bullish on oils, but trading becomes more difficult after valuation increases. For eggs and live pigs, wait and see. For apples, wait and see [6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, for LLDPE, it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term and go short on far - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads on the month - spread at high prices in the long - term. For PVC, wait and see. For PTA, wait and see in the short - term after taking profit on PX, and go short on the processing fee of far - month contracts at high prices. For rubber, hold long positions. For glass, wait and see. For PP, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term and go short on far - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads on the month - spread at high prices in the long - term. For MEG, go short at high prices and pay attention to peak - season orders. For crude oil, look for short - selling opportunities at around 520 yuan/barrel for the SC main contract. For styrene, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and in the long - term, go short on far - month contracts or short the styrene profit at high prices. For soda ash, wait and see. For caustic soda, go long [8][9][10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: On Monday, precious metal prices oscillated as the market gradually digested Powell's speech. Trump's administration is considering sanctioning EU officials due to the digital service law. Domestic gold ETF funds had a small outflow. COMEX gold inventory remained at 1199 tons, and SHFE gold inventory remained at 37 tons. London's July gold inventory was 8774 tons. It is recommended to go long on gold [1]. - **Silver**: SHFE silver inventory increased by 4 tons to 1113 tons, SGE silver inventory decreased by 64 tons to 1289 tons last week, COMEX silver inventory increased by 7 tons to 15823 tons, and London's July silver inventory increased by 408 tons to 24196 tons. India imported about 200 tons of silver in June. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares, increased by 11 tons to 15288 tons. It is recommended to temporarily exit and wait and see [1]. 3.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: Yesterday, copper prices oscillated strongly. The market was still trading on Powell's dovish speech on Friday. The domestic equity market was still hot, and market risk appetite was high. The premium of flat - water copper in East and South China was 100 yuan and 30 yuan respectively, and the weekly inventory decreased by 0.87 million tons. It is recommended to buy at dips [2]. - **Aluminum**: Yesterday, the closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.65% to 20785 yuan/ton. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 110 yuan/ton, and the LME price was 2622 US dollars/ton. Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. The weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly. It is expected that the price will oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to go long at dips [2]. - **Alumina**: Yesterday, the closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 1.47% to 3184 yuan/ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 75 yuan/ton. The operating capacity of alumina was stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production. Bauxite supply is sufficient, alumina capacity remains high, inventory is continuously released, and the spot price is under downward pressure, but the cost support increases. It is expected that the price will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and if holding spot, one can sell call options opportunistically [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply side saw 1 new furnace opened last week in the country, and the resumption rhythm in the northwest region was less than expected due to raw material supply issues. Social inventory decreased slightly, and warehouse - receipt inventory increased slightly. On the demand side, the start - up of polysilicon maintained a slight increase, the output of silicone decreased month - on - month due to the decline in industrial chain prices, and the downstream demand for aluminum alloy entered the off - season, with a relatively stable start - up rate. The trading logic is centered around the "anti - involution" varieties, and the production plan in Xinjiang should be focused on. The disk is expected to oscillate between 8200 - 9200, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Yesterday, the main contract LC2511 closed at 79,380 yuan/ton (+420), up 0.5%. The CIF price of Australian spodumene was 920 US dollars/ton (+0), the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price was 82,500 (-1400) yuan/ton, and the basis weakened to +3340 yuan/ton. Last week's weekly output was 19138 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21%. The production of lithium carbonate from lithium mica decreased by 1250 tons, and the contract production of lithium carbonate from spodumene continued to increase, but the growth rate weakened and was gradually unable to cover the supply gap of lithium carbonate from lithium mica. In August, the peak production season of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials was evident, and the bidding capacity of the energy storage system in July had a bright growth rate. This week's sample inventory was 14.15 million tons, with a destocking of 713 tons. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and then go long with a small position after stabilization or buy call options when volatility declines [3]. - **Polysilicon**: On Monday, the main contract closed at 51580 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 5547 lots to 289125 lots. Today, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 111 lots to 50938 lots. Last week's weekly output increased slightly, and the output in August is expected to increase by about 20% month - on - month. The growth rate of warehouse receipts slowed down last week, and the industry inventory decreased significantly. On the demand side, the prices of downstream products fluctuated little. The production schedules of silicon wafers and battery cells in August met expectations, basically flat compared with July. The photovoltaic installation demand market in the third quarter is relatively pessimistic, and the newly - added photovoltaic installation in July decreased by 47.6% year - on - year. It is recommended to try to go long lightly on dips [3]. - **Tin**: Yesterday, tin prices oscillated strongly. The market was still trading on Powell's dovish speech on Friday. The domestic equity market was still hot, and market risk appetite was high. Domestic warehouse receipts decreased by 21 tons, and the premium of domestic deliverable brands was 300 - 600 yuan. Spot trading was light. It is recommended to buy at dips [3]. 3.3 Black Industry - **Rebar**: The rebar main 2510 contract oscillated weakly and closed at 3130 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. The rebar inventory in the Gangyin caliber increased by 4.9% week - on - week to 464 million tons, and increased by 6.1% last week. The rebar delivery in Hangzhou over the weekend was 6.8 million tons, 6.6 million tons last week; the inventory was 82.8 million tons, 76.7 million tons last week, and 75.7 million tons in the same period last year. The supply and demand of building materials are moderately weak, and the demand is in the off - season. The previous good profits led to an increase in supply, and the inventory of building materials increased rapidly; the demand for plates is stable, and direct and indirect exports remain at a high level, and the absolute inventory and inventory days remain at the lowest level in history. Overall, the supply and demand of steel are relatively balanced, with no significant total contradiction, but obvious structural differentiation. The futures discount of rebar remains slightly high, and the futures structure of hot - rolled coils has turned to flat water, and the valuation has been continuously improved. It is recommended to wait and see on the margin and try to short the rebar 2510 contract [4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore main 2601 contract oscillated weakly and closed at 783.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. The shipment of Australia and Brazil in the Steel Union caliber increased by 4 million tons to 2760 million tons week - on - week, compared with 150 million tons in the same period last year. The arrival of iron ore decreased by 241 million tons to 2462 million tons week - on - week, a year - on - year decrease of 209 million tons. The port inventory decreased by 56 million tons to 1.44 billion tons week - on - week, a year - on - year decrease of 1419 million tons. The supply and demand of iron ore remained moderately strong, but the margin was slightly weaker. The molten iron output in the Steel Union caliber increased week - on - week and increased by 7% year - on - year. The seventh round of coke price increase has been implemented, and the eighth round has been proposed. The profit of steel mills has shrunk marginally, and the subsequent output will be mainly stable; the supply side conforms to the seasonal law, with a slight year - on - year decrease. The supply and demand of iron ore are moderately strong on the margin, and due to the high base of molten iron demand, it is expected that the subsequent inventory build - up of iron ore will be slower than the seasonal law. Iron ore maintains a forward - discount structure, but the absolute level remains at a relatively low level in the same period in history, and the valuation is neutral. It is recommended to wait and see mainly [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal main 2601 contract oscillated upward and closed at 1214.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. The molten iron output in the Steel Union caliber increased by 0.1 million tons to 240.8 million tons week - on - week, a year - on - year increase of 16.3 million tons. The profit of steel mills has shrunk marginally, and the subsequent output will be mainly stable. The seventh round of coke price increase has been implemented, and the eighth round has been proposed. The inventories at various links on the supply side are differentiated. The coking coal inventories and inventory days of steel mills and coking plants remain at the lowest level in the same period in history, while the inventories at links such as mine mouths, ports, and terminals continue to remain at a high level in history. At the same time, the output and mine - mouth inventory decreased month - on - month, and the overall supply and demand are still relatively loose, but the fundamentals are improving month - on - month. The futures are at a premium to the spot, and the forward - premium structure is maintained, and the futures valuation is high. It is recommended to try to short the coking coal 2601 contract [5]. 3.4 Agricultural Product Market - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans fell. On the supply side, the near - term output of US soybeans has shrunk due to a significant reduction in area, while the yield per unit is expected to be good, and the high - frequency weekly good - to - excellent rate is good; in the long - term, South America is expected to increase production, with a slight year - on - year increase overall. On the demand side, demand in South America is gradually decreasing, shifting to US soybeans, but there are still differences in the export demand for new - crop US soybeans, depending on tariff policies. In the short - term, US soybeans are strong, trading on supply contraction, but it is only a quantitative change. Domestic soybean arrivals are high in stages, and high - frequency demand also remains at a high level. It is recommended to follow the international cost - end and oscillate strongly, paying attention to tariff policies [6]. - **Corn**: The corn 2511 contract continued to be weak, and the corn spot price fell. Wheat has high cost - effectiveness and substitutes for corn in feed demand. The weak wheat price suppresses the corn price. The auction of imported grains increases market supply, and the low transaction rate reflects weak market sentiment. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high. The easing of the trade situation increases import expectations, early - spring corn is about to be listed, and the cost of new - crop corn has decreased significantly, suppressing long - term price expectations. The corn spot price is expected to run weakly. It is recommended to wait and see after continuous decline [6]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5680 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar processed and taxed after the out - of - quota was 436 yuan/ton. Internationally, Brazil's output is still the dominant factor for raw sugar. Pay attention to Brazil's bi - weekly output data. Currently, Brazil is the main reason for pressuring raw sugar, and high production is gradually being realized. Domestically, last week, imported sugar significantly pressured the spot price in the sales area, leading to a lower quotation, but this week, the spot price has shown a stabilizing trend, indicating the Mid - Autumn Festival stocking demand. The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract rebounded slightly and will be in a weak oscillation later, and will be below 6700 yuan/ton in the long - term. It is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [7]. - **Cotton**: Overnight, the US cotton futures price oscillated and fell, and the US dollar index strengthened significantly. Internationally, as of the week ending August 24, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton dropped to 54%, down from the previous week. The auction reserve price of India's Cotton Corporation S - 6 was stable at 55400 rupees/candy, equivalent to about 81.05 cents/pound. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated upward, and the market continued to focus on the tight spot situation. Yesterday, it was officially announced that 200,000 tons of sliding - scale duty - processing trade quotas would be issued, the same as last year. It is recommended to buy at dips and use an oscillating strategy in the 14000 - 14500 yuan/ton range [7]. - **Palm Oil**: Yesterday, Malaysian palm oil fell. On the supply side, the producing areas are still in the seasonal production - increasing cycle, and the MPOA daily Malaysian palm oil output increased by 3% month - on - month; on the demand side, it is estimated that from August 1 - 20, the situation in the producing areas has improved, and the ITS estimated that the Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 25 increased by 10.9% month - on - month. Overall, the background is one of increasing supply and demand, with near - term inventory accumulation continuing and long - term expectations being tight. Oils are still bullish, but trading becomes more difficult after valuation increases. Pay attention to production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies [7]. - **Eggs**: The egg 2510 contract oscillated narrowly, and the spot price was stable. High temperatures have led to a seasonal decline in the laying rate of laying hens, and downstream food factories are gradually stocking up, so demand may increase seasonally. There are many newly - laid hens, and the willingness to cull old hens is not strong. Cold - storage egg inventory is high, and supply is sufficient. Low vegetable prices suppress demand, and low feed prices have lowered the cost center. It is recommended to wait and see after continuous decline [7]. - **Live Pigs**: The live pig 2511 contract oscillated narrowly, and the live pig spot price fell slightly. Consumption is gradually recovering. The previous slaughter progress was slow, and the slaughter in August increased. In addition, group farms continued to reduce the

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, suggesting going long on gold; for silver, it is advisable to temporarily exit and observe [2]. - For basic metals like copper, aluminum, and tin, due to Powell's dovish remarks and other factors, there are expectations of currency easing and fiscal expansion, and it is recommended to buy on dips [3][4]. - In the black industry, steel and iron ore are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with suggestions of unilateral waiting and observation [5][6]. - In the agricultural product market, different products have different trading strategies based on supply - demand fundamentals, such as short - term strength in US soybeans and waiting and seeing for some products [7][8]. - In the energy and chemical industry, some products are expected to be short - term volatile and slightly stronger, while in the long - term, as new devices are put into production, the supply - demand pattern will tend to be loose, and corresponding short - selling strategies are recommended [9][10]. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market rebounded on Friday due to Powell's speech. Domestic gold ETF had a small outflow, and COMEX and London gold inventories had different changes. It is recommended to go long on gold [2]. - **Silver**: Followed gold's sharp rise, with continuous inventory reduction. It is recommended to temporarily exit and observe [2]. Basic Metals - **Copper**: Price was volatile and slightly stronger on Friday. Powell's dovish remarks led to a decline in the US dollar index. Supply was tight, and it is recommended to buy on dips [3]. - **Aluminum**: Electrolytic aluminum's price was slightly up, with an increase in operating capacity and a rise in the weekly aluminum product start - up rate. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, and it is recommended to buy on dips [3]. - **Alumina**: Price was slightly down. Supply capacity was stable, and demand came from high - load electrolytic aluminum plants. It is expected to have wide - range fluctuations, and if holding spot, one can sell call options opportunistically [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Price was up. Supply had new furnaces opened, and demand had different performances in different sectors. It is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9200, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Lithium**: Price was down. Supply decreased, and demand showed a peak season pattern. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and then buy on dips or buy call options after volatility declines [4]. - **Polysilicon**: Output was expected to increase in August, and inventory decreased significantly. It is expected to fluctuate between 45000 - 53000, and one can try to buy on dips [4]. - **Tin**: Price was volatile and stronger. Powell's remarks and supply - demand factors led to this. Supply was tight, and demand was stable. It is recommended to buy on dips [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar Steel**: Price was volatile and slightly stronger. Building material supply - demand was neutral and weak, while plate demand was stable. It is recommended for unilateral waiting and observation [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: Price was volatile and slightly stronger. Supply - demand was neutral and strong, with marginal weakening. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Coking Coal**: Price was up. Supply - demand was generally loose but improving. It is recommended to stop losses on previous short positions [6]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans were driven up by soybean oil. Supply was expected to increase annually, and demand had differences. Domestic soybeans followed the international cost side and were volatile and slightly stronger [7]. - **Corn**: Futures price rebounded slightly, and the spot price fell. Wheat substitution and other factors affected it, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Cotton**: US cotton price was volatile and slightly stronger. International and domestic fundamentals improved. It is recommended to buy on dips [8]. - **Palm Oil**: Price was up. Supply was in the seasonal increase period, and demand improved. It is recommended to be bullish on oils, but the trading difficulty increases [8]. - **Eggs**: Futures price rebounded, and the spot price fell slightly. Supply was sufficient, and demand might increase seasonally. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Pigs**: Futures price was weak, and the spot price rose. Supply was sufficient, and consumption was recovering. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. Energy and Chemical Industry - **LLDPE**: Price was slightly up. Supply was increasing domestically and expected to decrease in imports. Demand was improving. It is expected to be short - term volatile and slightly stronger, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short far - month contracts [9][10]. - **PVC**: Price was up. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was average. Inventory was accumulating. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Rubber**: Price was volatile. Supply and demand fundamentals were generally strong. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium - term [10]. - **Glass**: Price was up. Supply was expected to enter the seasonal destocking period. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **PP**: Price was slightly up. Supply was increasing, and demand was improving. It is expected to be short - term volatile, and in the long - term, short - selling strategies are recommended [10]. - **Crude Oil**: Price was up due to multiple factors. Supply pressure was increasing, and demand had support. It is recommended to short at around 520 yuan/barrel [10][11]. - **Styrene**: Price rebounded slightly. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was expected to improve in the peak season. It is expected to be short - term volatile and slightly stronger, and long - term short - selling strategies are recommended [11]. - **Soda Ash**: Price was up. Supply was in the high - production season, and demand improved seasonally. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Caustic Soda**: Price was up. Supply - demand was healthy, and it is recommended to go long [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Mid - to long - term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties at low prices; short - term market shows signs of cooling [3] - With the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to conduct hedging on T and TL contracts at high prices in the medium - to long - term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On August 22, A - share four major stock indexes all rose, with Shanghai Composite Index up 1.45% to 3825.76 points, Shenzhen Component Index up 2.07% to 12166.06 points, ChiNext Index up 3.36% to 2682.55 points, and Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index up 8.59% to 1247.86 points. Market turnover was 2578.8 billion yuan, an increase of 118.5 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, electronics, communication, and computer led the gains, while banks, textile and apparel, and coal led the losses [2] - On August 22, Treasury bond futures yields rose. Among active contracts, the implied interest rate of two - year bonds was 1.431, up 0.4 bps from the previous day; five - year bonds was 1.658, up 1.68 bps; ten - year bonds was 1.786, up 3.04 bps; thirty - year bonds was 2.142, up 1.08 bps [3] 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts were 61.14, 52.45, - 9.8, and - 9.39 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 5.93%, - 5.49%, 1.6%, and 2.29%, and three - year historical quantiles of 58%, 44%, 75%, and 76% respectively [3] 3.3 Capital Situation - In open - market operations, the central bank's currency injection was 361.2 billion yuan, currency withdrawal was 238 billion yuan, and net injection was 123.2 billion yuan [4] 3.4 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - Details of the performance of various stock index futures and spot products on August 22 are presented in Table 1, including information such as code, name, price change percentage, current price, price change, trading volume, trading value, open interest, daily position change, settlement price, basis, and annualized basis yield [6] 3.5 Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - Details of the performance of various Treasury bond futures and spot products on August 22 are presented in Table 2, including information such as code, name, price change percentage, current price, trading volume, trading value, open interest, daily position change, settlement price, net basis, CTD bond implied interest rate, and spot bond yield [7] 3.6 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak. Based on the comparison of medium - term data of each module with the same period in the past five years (year - on - year month - on - month), scores are given according to the degree of change [10][13]

Report Overview - The report is a financial research on financial futures, including stock index futures and treasury bond futures, released by China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. on August 22, 2025 [1][2] 1. Market Performance Stock Index Futures - On August 21, the four major A-share stock indexes showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13% to 3771.1 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.06% to 11919.76 points, the ChiNext Index fell 0.47% to 2595.47 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.09% to 1149.15 points. Market turnover was 2.4603 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.9 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (+1.5%), petroleum and petrochemicals (+1.39%), and beauty care (+0.98%) led the gains, while machinery (-1.08%), power equipment (-0.98%), and composites (-0.73%) led the losses [2] - In terms of market strength, IH > IF > IC > IM. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2169/164/3087 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were -20.9 billion, -30.8 billion, 5.6 billion, and 46.1 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -8.4 billion, -9.7 billion, +6.7 billion, and +11.4 billion yuan respectively [2] - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 99.94, 87.37, 14.27, and -2.02 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of -9.57%, -9.05%, -2.31%, and 0.49% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 39%, 18%, 36%, and 50% respectively [2] Treasury Bond Futures - On August 21, the yields of treasury bond futures declined. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.426, down 0.13 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.639, down 1.32 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.728, down 0.99 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 2.135, down 1.96 bps [2] - For the current active 2509 contract, the CTD bond of the two - year treasury bond futures was 250006.IB, with a yield change of -0.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.019, and an IRR of 1.24%; the CTD bond of the five - year treasury bond futures was 250003.IB, with a yield change of -1.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.096, and an IRR of 1.22%; the CTD bond of the ten - year treasury bond futures was 250007.IB, with a yield change of -2 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.098, and an IRR of 0.16%; the CTD bond of the thirty - year treasury bond futures was 210005.IB, with a yield change of -3 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.401, and an IRR of 0.58% [2] - In terms of the money market, the central bank's net injection was 124.3 billion yuan through open market operations [2] 2. Trading Strategies Stock Index Futures - In the medium - to - long term, the report maintains the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index futures as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips. In the short term, there are signs of market cooling [2] Treasury Bond Futures - Given the rising risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to conduct high - level hedging for T and TL in the medium - to - long term [2] 3. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak. Based on the comparison of domestic medium - level data with the same period in the past five years, the sentiment of manufacturing, real estate, social activities, infrastructure, and import - export sectors is analyzed, with negative scores indicating weakening sentiment [9][11][12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - In the base metals market, aluminum shows signs of downstream consumption recovery and is recommended to buy on dips; alumina is expected to be weak and range-bound, and those holding spot can sell call options opportunistically; zinc is recommended to sell on rallies; lead is recommended for range trading; silicon is expected to trade sideways and it's advisable to wait and see; lithium carbonate has intense long - short battles and it's recommended to wait and see; polycrystalline silicon is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan, and one can try to go long on dips [2][3]. - In the black industry, for rebar, it's recommended to wait and see; for iron ore, it's mainly recommended to wait and see; for coking coal, it's recommended to hold previous short positions [4][5]. - In the agricultural products market, soybean meal is expected to follow the international cost side and fluctuate strongly; corn futures are expected to be weak; cotton is recommended to buy on dips; palm oil is still bullish but difficult to trade; eggs futures are expected to be weak; for live pigs, it's recommended to wait and see [6][7]. - In the energy and chemical market, for PVC, rubber, glass, and soda ash, it's recommended to wait and see; for caustic soda, it's recommended to go long [8][9]. Summary by Directory Base Metals - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.27% to 20,565 yuan/ton. The operating capacity increased slightly, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate rose slightly. With downstream consumption showing signs of recovery, it's recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 0.73% to 3,147 yuan/ton. The operating capacity continued to increase. With strong supply pressure, it's expected to be weak and range - bound, and those holding spot can sell call options opportunistically [2]. - **Zinc**: The closing price of the zinc 2509 contract decreased by 0.11% to 22,260 yuan/ton. Supply increased significantly, and it's in the consumption off - season. It's recommended to sell on rallies [2]. - **Lead**: The closing price of the lead 2509 contract increased by 0.12% to 16,745 yuan/ton. Supply increased, and the consumption peak season was disappointing. It's recommended for range trading [2]. - **Silicon**: The overall furnace - opening rate was 35.3%, and social inventory decreased slightly. Demand on the margin improved. It's expected to trade sideways and it's advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract LC2511 rose 2.2% to 82,760 yuan/ton. Supply and demand may turn tight in August - October. With intense long - short battles, it's recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan. Policy news may cause fluctuations, and one can try to go long on dips [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2510 contract closed at 3,122 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. Supply and demand were relatively balanced but structurally differentiated. It's recommended to wait and see, with the RB10 reference range of 3,100 - 3,170 yuan [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2601 contract closed at 773 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. Supply and demand were neutral - strong but weakening at the margin. It's mainly recommended to wait and see, with the I09 reference range of 740 - 790 yuan [4][5]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2601 contract closed at 1,148.5 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton. Supply and demand were relatively loose but improving. It's recommended to hold previous short positions, with the JM01 reference range of 1,120 - 1,180 yuan [5]. Agricultural Products Market - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose. Near - term US soybean production decreased, and it's expected to follow the international cost side and fluctuate strongly. Later, pay attention to yield per unit and tariff policies [6]. - **Corn**: The 2511 contract was weak, and the spot price fell. Due to substitution and increased supply, the spot price is expected to be weak [6]. - **Cotton**: Overnight US cotton futures were weak. Domestic cotton exports increased. It's recommended to buy on dips, with a range - trading strategy of 13,800 - 14,200 yuan/ton [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The main contract continued to correct. Supply and demand were both increasing, and it's still bullish but difficult to trade. Pay attention to production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies [7]. - **Eggs**: The 2510 contract was weak, and the spot price was stable. Supply was sufficient, and demand was weak. Futures prices are expected to be weak [7]. - **Live Pigs**: The 2511 contract was weak, and the spot price fluctuated slightly. Supply was sufficient, and it's recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to policies and consumption during certain periods [7]. Energy and Chemical Market - **PVC**: The V01 contract rose 0.8% to 5,014 yuan. Supply will increase, demand is average, and inventory has accumulated. The driving force is unclear, and it's recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Rubber**: The RU2601 contract rose 0.74% to 15,720 yuan/ton. Downstream operating rates increased, and the raw material support weakened slightly. It's recommended to buy on dips after a correction [8]. - **Glass**: The FG01 contract closed flat at 1,164 yuan. Supply and demand were weak, and the downside space was limited. It's recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa01 contract rose 0.3% to 1,315 yuan. Supply is in the high - production season, and inventory is high. The downside space is limited, and it's recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The sh01 contract rose 2% to 2,741 yuan. Supply and demand are healthy, and it's recommended to go long [9].

Report Overview - The report is a financial futures morning report from China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd., dated August 21, 2025, covering the performance of stock index and treasury bond futures markets and related economic data [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy, recommend allocating long - term contracts of various varieties on dips, and note short - term market cooling signs [2] - For treasury bond futures, with rising risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, suggest medium - to long - term hedging of T and TL contracts on rallies [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market Performance - On August 20, the four major A - share stock indexes opened lower and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.04% to 3766.21 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.89% to 11926.74 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.23% to 2607.65 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 3.23% to 1148.15 points. Market turnover was 2.4484 trillion yuan, a decrease of 192.3 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, beauty care (+2.42%), petroleum and petrochemicals (+2.36%), and electronics (+2.32%) led the gains; pharmaceutical and biological (-0.07%), household appliances (+0.12%), and real estate (+0.16%) led the losses [2] - From the perspective of market strength, IH > IF > IC > IM, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 3673/162/1585 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, major, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of - 12.5 billion, - 21.1 billion, - 1.1 billion, and 34.7 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +6.3 billion, +5.2 billion, - 0.8 billion, and - 10.7 billion yuan respectively [2] Basis and Trading Strategy - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 77.26, 69.87, 10, and - 4.21 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 7.15%, - 7.02%, - 1.58%, and 1% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 52%, 32%, 42%, and 57% respectively [2] - The trading strategy is to maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips; the short - term market shows signs of cooling [2] 2. Treasury Bond Futures Market Performance - On August 20, the yields of treasury bond futures rose. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.426, up 0.4 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.641, up 2.06 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.75, up 1.74 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 2.144, up 1.07 bps [2] - The current active contract is the 2509 contract. The CTD bond of the two - year treasury bond futures is 250006.IB, with a yield change of +0.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.02, and an IRR of 1.3%; the CTD bond of the five - year treasury bond futures is 240020.IB, with a yield change of +1.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.1, and an IRR of 0.24%; the CTD bond of the ten - year treasury bond futures is 250007.IB, with a yield change of +1.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.112, and an IRR of 0.08%; the CTD bond of the thirty - year treasury bond futures is 210005.IB, with a yield change of +1.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.101, and an IRR of 0.53% [2] - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 616 billion yuan and withdrew 118.5 billion yuan, with a net injection of 497.5 billion yuan [2] Trading Strategy - With rising risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium - to long - term [2] 3. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [8]