金融研究 2025年8月15日 星期五 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：8 月 14 日，A 股四大股指有所回调，其中上证指数下跌 0.46%，报收 3666.44 点；深成 指下跌 0.87%，报收 11451.43 点；创业板指下跌 1.08%，报收 2469.66 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.75%， 报收 1085.74 点。市场成交 23,063 亿元，较前日增加 1,311 亿元。行业板块方面，非银金融(+0.59%) 涨幅居前；综合(-2.66%)，国防军工(-2.15%)，通信(-2.12%)跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM， 个股涨/平/跌数分别为 734/41/4,644。沪深两市，机构、主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-254、 -289、62、481 亿元，分别变动-331、-190、+185、+335 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 47.29、49.65、9.51 与-0.13 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-6.28%、-7.15%、-2.11%与 0.04%，三年期历史分位数分别为 57%、31%、37%及 45%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies for various commodities across different sectors including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. The overall view is that different commodities face diverse supply - demand situations, and trading strategies vary from commodity to commodity, with many suggesting a wait - and - see approach due to uncertainties [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Basic Metals - **Copper**: Market showed weak oscillations. Fundamental factors such as dollar rebound and commodity sentiment cooling pressured the price. Trading strategy is to temporarily hold off [1]. - **Aluminum**: The 2509 contract price decreased. Supply capacity increased slightly, while demand had no obvious improvement. With Fed's potential rate - cut and consumption season factors, it's advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract price dropped. Supply capacity was stable, and demand was high. It's in a stage of weak reality versus strong expectation, so it's recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Zinc**: The 2509 contract price fell, and inventory increased. Supply increment was significant, and consumption was in a deep - off - season. The trading strategy is to sell on rallies [1]. - **Lead**: The 2509 contract price declined. Supply was regionally differentiated, and consumption decreased due to high - temperature holidays. It's better to wait for inventory reduction or production cut signals [1][2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The 11 - contract price rose. Supply increased, and demand showed marginal improvement. The market may have wide - range oscillations, so it's recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2511 contract price increased. Supply might be in short - term shortage, and demand was strong. Short - term oscillations are expected, and long - term, it may rise if supply doesn't improve, so small - position long - entry on dips can be considered [2]. - **Polysilicon**: The 11 - contract price fell. Supply might increase, and demand had no significant change. The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton [2]. - **Tin**: The price showed weak oscillations. Market sentiment and dollar factors pressured the price. It's expected to oscillate in a range in the short - term [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract price dropped. Building material demand decreased, and supply - demand was balanced with structural differences. The 2510 short - position should be closed, and the price is expected to be in the 3150 - 3220 yuan/ton range [3][4]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2601 contract price declined. Iron - water production increased, and supply - demand was slightly strong. The 2601 short - position should be closed, and the price is expected to be in the 750 - 800 yuan/ton range [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2601 contract price fell. Iron - water production decreased slightly, and supply - demand was relatively loose. The 2601 short - position should be closed, and the price is expected to be in the 1200 - 1270 yuan/ton range [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans fell. Supply was proximally loose and distally tight, and demand had differences. Short - term, US soybeans are strong within an oscillating range, and domestic prices follow international costs [5]. - **Corn**: The 2509 contract was weak. Wheat substitution, import increase, and new - crop cost reduction pressured the price. Futures are expected to oscillate after a decline [5]. - **Sugar**: The 01 contract price decreased. Brazilian production increased, and domestic supply pressured the price. Futures should be shorted, and call options should be sold [5][6]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell. US export increased, and Brazilian production rose while Indian planting decreased. It's advisable to buy on dips and trade within the 14000 - 14300 yuan/ton range [6]. - **Log**: The 09 contract price dropped. Spot prices rose, and the market is expected to fluctuate around 800 yuan/cubic meter in the short - term [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices fell. Supply was in a seasonal increase, and demand had mixed trends. Fats and oils are still recommended for long - allocation, focusing on production and policies [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2510 contract was weak. Supply was sufficient, and demand might increase seasonally. Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - **Hogs**: The 2511 contract declined. Consumption was seasonally weak, and supply would increase. Pig prices are expected to decline in the medium - term [6][7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract price dropped slightly. Supply increased, and demand improved in some areas. Short - term oscillations are expected to be weak, and long - term, short - entry on rallies for far - month contracts is recommended [8]. - **PVC**: The V01 contract price fell. Supply would increase, and demand was average with inventory accumulation. It's recommended to wait and see [8]. - **PTA**: PX supply was high, and PTA supply decreased. Polyester demand recovered. PX is recommended to wait and see, and PTA can be shorted on rallies in the long - term [8]. - **Rubber**: The RU2601 contract price decreased. Raw material prices were stable, and tire production had mixed trends. It's advisable to buy on dips [8]. - **Glass**: The fg01 contract price fell. Supply might increase, and demand was weak with inventory accumulation. It's recommended to wait and see [11]. - **PP**: The main contract price dropped. Supply increased, and demand was differentiated. Short - term oscillations are expected to be weak, and long - term short - entry on rallies for far - month contracts is recommended [11]. - **MEG**: Supply decreased, and inventory was low. Polyester demand recovered. It's recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The price rebounded. Supply pressure would increase, and demand was stable. It's advisable to short on rallies around 510 yuan/barrel [11]. - **Styrene**: The EB main contract price dropped. Supply might increase, and demand was under pressure. Short - term oscillations are expected to be weak, and long - term short - entry on rallies for far - month contracts is recommended [11][12]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa01 contract price fell. Supply was high with inventory increase, and demand from photovoltaic glass was weak. It's recommended to wait and see [12].

期货研究报告 | 金融工程研究 CTA各策略小幅上涨，配置窗口逐步打开 ——招商期货CTA市场跟踪周报 （ 2025年08月04日-2025年08月08日） ·联系人-乔垒 ·联系电话：15805605265 ·zhaojiayu@cmschina.com.cn ·执业资格号: Z0016776 ·qiaolei1@cmschina.com.cn 2025年08月12日 核心观点 ·研究员-赵嘉瑜 ·联系电话：13686866941 | | 商品市场整体下行 | 商品市场整体下行。分板块来看：贵金属指数上涨2.94%，黑色指数上涨1.76%，有色金属指数上涨 1.29%，农产品指数上涨0.72%，工业品指数下跌0.96%，能化指数下跌2.11%；分品种来看：原油指数下 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 跌6.56%，黄金指数上涨2.22%。 | | 市场回顾 | CTA各策略小幅上涨 | 本周各策略小幅上涨，招商期货CTA中短周期策略指数上涨0.16%，产品池中上涨产品占比72%，招商期 | | | | 货CTA中长周期策略指数上涨0.09%，产品池中上涨产品占比50%。招商期货CTA量 ...

2025年8月14日 星期四 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：8 月 13 日，A 股四大股指全线上行，其中上证指数上涨 0.48%，报收 3683.46 点；深成 指上涨 1.76%，报收 11551.36 点；创业板指上涨 3.62%，报收 2496.5 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.74%， 报收 1077.7 点。市场成交 21,752 亿元，较前日增加 2,700 亿元。行业板块方面，通信(+4.91%)， 有色金属(+2.37%)，电子(+2.01%)涨幅居前；银行(-1.06%)，煤炭(-0.81%)，食品饮料(-0.42%)跌幅 居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,730/233/2,456。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 76、-99、-123、146 亿元，分别变动+165、+44、-111、-98 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 62.53、56.3、5.78 与-5.82 点，基差年化收益率分别为 -7.9%、-7.72%、-1.24%与 1.85%，三年期历史分位数分别为 49% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, China's credit data, and supply - demand relationships in different industries. Different trading strategies are recommended for various commodities based on their specific fundamentals[2][3][4][6][7][8][9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Market - Market Performance: Precious metals rebounded slightly on Wednesday, and market expectations for interest - rate cuts increased[2]. - Fundamentals: There are expectations of an early Fed rate cut, possible changes in the Fed chair appointment, geopolitical tensions, and changes in gold and silver inventories in different regions[2]. - Trading Strategy: Suggest going long on gold due to the unchanged de - dollarization logic; suggest temporarily observing silver due to inventory reduction and possible policy changes[2]. Basic Metals Aluminum - Market Performance: The electrolytic aluminum 2509 contract closed +0.27% higher at 20790 yuan/ton; the alumina 2509 contract closed - 2.36% lower at 3230 yuan/ton[3]. - Fundamentals: For electrolytic aluminum, supply capacity increased slightly while demand had no obvious improvement; for alumina, supply capacity was stable and demand came from high - load electrolytic aluminum production[3]. - Trading Strategy: For electrolytic aluminum, suggest observing as the price may fall after the positive sentiment fades; for alumina, suggest holding long positions and observing for non - participants[3]. Zinc - Market Performance: The zinc 2509 contract closed - 0.13% lower at 22,600 yuan/ton, and social inventory increased[3][4]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased significantly, processing fees rose, and consumption was in the off - season with开工 rates dropping[4]. - Trading Strategy: Suggest selling short at high prices[4]. Lead - Market Performance: The lead 2509 contract closed +0.09% higher at 16,930 yuan/ton, and social inventory decreased[4]. - Fundamentals: Supply had regional differentiation, and consumption was affected by high - temperature holidays in the battery industry[4]. - Trading Strategy: Suggest observing and waiting for inventory reduction or production cut signals[4]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main 11 contract closed at 8600 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton, with increased positions and slightly increased warehouse receipts[4]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased with new furnaces opened, and demand had marginal improvement in some areas[4]. - Trading Strategy: Suggest observing as the price is expected to fluctuate widely[4]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main LC2511 contract closed at 85,100 yuan/ton, up +3.1%[4]. - Fundamentals: Supply may face shortages in the future, and demand is in the peak season. Inventory increased recently[4]. - Trading Strategy: In the short - term, suggest observing; in the long - term, suggest going long at low prices if supply shortages persist[4]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main 11 contract closed at 8600 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton, with increased positions and slightly increased warehouse receipts[4]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased slightly, and demand was in a complex situation with mixed signals[4]. - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan, affected by policy news[4]. Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The rebar 2510 contract closed at 3216 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton[6]. - Fundamentals: Building material supply - demand was neutral, and plate demand was stable. There was a significant structural differentiation[6]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in rebar 2510, with a reference range of 3180 - 3240 yuan[6]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The iron ore 2601 contract closed at 796 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton[6]. - Fundamentals: Supply and demand were neutral - strong, and the market had expectations of a Fed rate cut and China's credit data[6]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in iron ore 2601, with a reference range of 770 - 810 yuan[6]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1236.5 yuan/ton, down 70.5 yuan/ton[6]. - Fundamentals: Supply - demand was relatively loose but improving, and the futures were over - valued[6]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in coking coal 2601, with a reference range of 1200 - 1270 yuan[6]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans continued to rise overnight[7]. - Fundamentals: Supply was loose in the near - term and tight in the long - term; demand had differences in the new US soybean crop[7]. - Trading Strategy: US soybeans are strong in the short - term, and the domestic market follows the international cost[7]. Corn - Market Performance: The corn 2509 contract rebounded, and the spot price fell[7]. - Fundamentals: Wheat substitution, import auctions, and new - crop cost pressure affected the price[7][8]. - Trading Strategy: The futures are expected to rebound after continuous decline[8]. Sugar - Market Performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5664 yuan/ton, up 0.32%[8]. - Fundamentals: Brazilian production increased, and domestic prices were under pressure[8]. - Trading Strategy: Go short in the futures market and sell call options[8]. Cotton - Market Performance: The US cotton futures price fell overnight, and the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose[8]. - Fundamentals: International cotton growth progress and domestic data adjustment affected the price[8]. - Trading Strategy: Buy at low prices and use a range - trading strategy between 14,000 - 14,300 yuan/ton[8]. Logs - Market Performance: The log 09 contract closed at 813 yuan/cubic meter, down 1.39%[8]. - Fundamentals: Spot prices rose, and the market had expectations for the future, with short - term focus on delivery[8]. - Trading Strategy: Observe[8]. Palm Oil - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil continued to rise[8]. - Fundamentals: Supply was in the seasonal growth period, and demand was relatively weak, with inventory accumulation[8]. - Trading Strategy: It is strong in the short - term and recommended for long - term allocation, focusing on production and biodiesel policies[8]. Eggs - Market Performance: The egg 2509 contract fell, and the spot price was stable[8]. - Fundamentals: Supply was sufficient, and demand had seasonal changes, with cost moving down[8]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly[8]. Pigs - Market Performance: The live - hog 2511 contract declined, and the spot price rose[9]. - Fundamentals: Consumption was weak seasonally, and supply would increase in the short - and medium - term[9]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust[9]. Energy Chemical LLDPE - Market Performance: The LLDPE main contract oscillated slightly, with a weak basis and general market trading[10]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased domestically and decreased in imports, and demand improved in the agricultural film sector[10]. - Trading Strategy: It may oscillate weakly in the short - term and is recommended to short far - month contracts when prices are high in the long - term[10]. PVC - Market Performance: The v09 contract closed at 5000, down 0.7%[10]. - Fundamentals: Supply was expected to increase, demand was average, and inventory accumulated[10]. - Trading Strategy: Observe as the price has limited downside[10]. Rubber - Market Performance: The rubber price rose slightly and then fell, with inventory decreasing[10]. - Fundamentals: Overseas raw material prices provided support[10]. - Trading Strategy: It may oscillate strongly in the short - term[10]. Glass - Market Performance: The fg09 contract closed at 1060, down 1.6%[10]. - Fundamentals: Supply may increase slightly, inventory accumulated, and demand recovered seasonally but was still weak[10]. - Trading Strategy: Observe as the price has limited downside[10]. PP - Market Performance: The PP main contract oscillated slightly, with a weak basis and general market trading[11]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased, and demand was differentiated among industries[11]. - Trading Strategy: It may oscillate weakly in the short - term and is recommended to short far - month contracts when prices are high in the long - term[11]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: Oil prices fell due to demand forecast cuts and inventory accumulation[11]. - Fundamentals: Supply pressure increased, and demand had mixed signals[11]. - Trading Strategy: Look for opportunities to short the SC main contract around 520 yuan/barrel[11]. Styrene - Market Performance: The EB main contract oscillated slightly, with a general market trading atmosphere[11]. - Fundamentals: Supply may increase in the future, and demand was affected by export prospects[11]. - Trading Strategy: It may oscillate weakly in the short - term and is recommended to short far - month contracts when prices are high in the long - term[11]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: The sa01 contract closed at 1390, down 0.8%[12]. - Fundamentals: Supply was operating normally with high inventory, and downstream demand was weak[12]. - Trading Strategy: Observe due to production - cut expectations[12].

金融研究 2025年8月13日 星期三 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：8 月 12 日，A 股四大股指全线上行，其中上证指数上涨 0.5%，报收 3665.92 点；深成指 上涨 0.53%，报收 11351.63 点；创业板指上涨 1.24%，报收 2409.4 点；科创 50 指数上涨 1.91%， 报收 1069.81 点。市场成交 19,052 亿元，较前日增加 553 亿元。行业板块方面，通信(+2.24%)，电 子(+1.88%)，煤炭(+1.01%)涨幅居前；国防军工(-1.03%)，钢铁(-0.83%)，建筑材料(-0.46%)跌幅居 前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,083/172/3,162。沪深两市，机构、主力、 大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-89、-143、-12、244 亿元，分别变动-207、-97、+160、+145 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 80.01、75.56、12.63 与-2.59 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-9.91%、-10.15%、-2.63%与 0.79%，三年期历史分位 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on gold; the long - term trend of industrial silver is downward, and it is advisable to consider short - selling silver on rallies [1][2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, prices are expected to remain volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see; for alumina, beware of callback risks; for zinc, short on rallies; for lead, wait and see; for lithium carbonate, wait and see due to high - volatility prices [2][3]. - For steel, try shorting the RB2510 contract; for iron ore, try shorting the I2601 contract; for coking coal, try shorting the JM2601 contract [4][5]. - For soybeans, the short - term is bullish, and domestic soybeans follow the international cost; for corn, the futures price is expected to be volatile and weak; for sugar, short in the futures market and sell call options; for cotton, buy on dips; for logs, wait and see; for palm oil, it is short - term bullish and medium - term long - biased; for eggs, the price is expected to be volatile; for pigs, the price is expected to be volatile and weak [6][7]. - For LLDPE, short - term is volatile and weak, and go short on far - month contracts on rallies in the long - term; for PVC, wait and see; for PTA, short - term look for positive spread opportunities and go short on processing fees or far - month contracts in the long - term; for rubber, it is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term; for glass, wait and see; for PP, short - term is volatile and weak, and go short on far - month contracts on rallies in the long - term; for MEG, wait and see; for crude oil, look for short - selling opportunities near 520 yuan/barrel; for EB, short - term is volatile and weak, and go short on far - month contracts on rallies in the long - term; for soda ash, wait and see [8][9][10][11] 3. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Precious metals rebounded slightly on Tuesday, and the market's expectation of interest rate cuts further increased [1]. - **Fundamentals**: US July CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected; core CPI growth reached the highest since February; the probability of a September interest rate cut rose to 95%. Trump considered suing Fed Chairman Powell, and Bisset hinted at a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September. US July tariff revenue reached a record high of $28 billion, a 273% year - on - year increase. The ten - month budget deficit as of July was $1.63 trillion. Domestic gold ETFs had capital outflows. COMEX gold inventory increased by 1 ton to 1201 tons, and Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory remained at 36 tons. London's June gold inventory was 8774 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory remained at 1151 tons, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory decreased by 64 tons to 1304 tons last week. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 11 tons to 15752 tons, and London's June silver inventory increased by 421 tons to 23788 tons. India imported about 200 tons of silver in June. The world's largest silver ETF increased its holdings by 41 tons to 15099 tons [1]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go long on gold; consider short - selling silver on rallies [2]. Base Metals Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.24% to 20,685 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 15 yuan/ton. The LME price was $2607/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. Consumption showed no obvious improvement, and the weekly aluminum product开工 rate was stable [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see as prices are expected to remain volatile [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina contract increased by 3.67% to 3191 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 22 yuan/ton. On August 11, 30,000 tons were traded in Western Australia at a price of $365/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina was stable. Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Beware of callback risks as alumina is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the zinc contract increased by 0.18% to 22,630 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 55 yuan/ton, and overseas 0 - 3 month spread was in a 3.6 structure. The social inventory on August 11 was 11.92 million tons, an increase of 0.6 million tons from August 7 [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased significantly (August zinc ingot production was 621,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18,000 tons), and processing fees soared, pushing refinery profits to over 1,500 yuan/ton. The consumption off - season deepened, and the galvanizing/die - casting开工 rate dropped to 56.77%/48.24%. Typhoons and Vietnam's tariffs dragged down exports. The seven - region zinc ingot social inventory increased to 113,200 tons (a weekly increase of 5,900 tons), but the LME inventory dropped below 85,000 tons, providing support [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short on rallies [3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the lead 2509 contract increased by 0.18% to 16,915 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 25 yuan/ton, and overseas 0 - 3 month spread was 36 dollars/ton. The social inventory on August 11 was 70,000 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from August 7 [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply showed regional differentiation. Environmental protection in Anhui suppressed the regenerated lead开工 rate to 41.11% (a weekly decrease of 3.26%), while the primary lead开工 rate was 67.4% (a weekly increase of 3.5%). High - temperature holidays in battery production led to a sharp drop in the five - province开工 rate to 65.25% (a weekly decrease of 6.61%), and battery prices were under pressure. The social inventory decreased to 71,100 tons (a weekly decrease of 1,800 tons), but the inventory digestion in regenerated lead plants was slow, and high waste battery costs (10,100 - 10,250 yuan/ton) suppressed profits [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see, waiting for signals of inventory reduction or regenerated lead production cuts [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2511 closed at 82,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 1620 yuan or 2.0% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Last week's production recovered to a new high of 19,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.2%. If the mining end of Ruoxiaowo stops production, it will affect the monthly supply of 8,000 tons of lithium carbonate, and supply - demand shortage is expected from August to October. In terms of demand, the peak production season of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials emerged in August, and the bidding capacity of energy storage systems in July had a remarkable growth rate. Last week, inventory increased due to supply restoration, and the sample inventory was 142,400 tons (an increase of 692 tons). Yesterday, the number of warehouse receipts increased to 20,829 (an increase of 1440) [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see due to high - volatility prices in the short - term [3]. Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The main RB2510 contract of steel rebounded after rising initially, closing at 3253 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The steel inventory in the Gangyin caliber increased by 1.5% to 4.17 million tons week - on - week, and the inventory in Hangzhou increased by 81,000 tons to 687,000 tons. The overall steel supply - demand was balanced, with no significant total - volume contradiction but obvious structural differentiation. The steel futures had a high discount, and the valuation continued to improve [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Try shorting the RB2510 contract, with a reference range of 3220 - 3280 yuan/ton [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main I2601 contract of iron ore fluctuated sideways, closing at 795 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The shipment of Australia and Brazil in the Ganglian caliber decreased by 20,000 tons to 25.3 million tons week - on - week, and the arrival decreased by 510,000 tons to 25.72 million tons. The iron ore inventory increased by 1.33 million tons to 1.44 billion tons. The iron ore supply - demand remained moderately strong. The iron - making water production decreased slightly week - on - week but increased by 86,000 tons year - on - year. The fifth round of coke price increase was implemented, and the sixth round was proposed. The steel mill profits narrowed marginally, and future production would be stable. The supply was in line with seasonal rules, with a slight year - on - year decrease. The iron ore supply - demand was moderately strong, and inventory accumulation was expected to be slower than the seasonal rule [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Try shorting the I2601 contract, with a reference range of 770 - 810 yuan/ton [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main JM2601 contract of coking coal rebounded after rising initially, closing at 1307 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The iron - making water production decreased by 4,000 tons week - on - week but increased by 86,000 tons year - on - year. The steel mill profits narrowed marginally, and future production would be stable. The fifth round of coke price increase was implemented, and there was no plan for the next increase. The inventory at each link was differentiated. The coking coal inventory and inventory days of steel mills and coking plants were at a relatively low level in the same period of history, while the inventory at mine mouths, ports, etc. continued to be at a record high. The production and mine - mouth inventory decreased month - on - month. The overall supply - demand was still relatively loose, but the fundamentals were improving. The futures were at a premium to the spot, and the forward premium structure remained. The futures valuation was high [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Try shorting the JM2601 contract, with a reference range of 1260 - 1330 yuan/ton [5]. Agricultural Products Soybeans - **Market Performance**: The overnight CBOT soybeans rose due to a positive USDA report [6]. - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply, it was loose in the near - term, while the production and inventory of new US soybean crops were revised down in the long - term. In terms of demand, South America was dominant in the short - term, but there were still differences in the export demand of new US soybean crops [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: The short - term US soybeans are bullish, digesting the positive report; domestic soybeans follow the international cost [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The corn 2509 contract rebounded, while the spot price of corn fell [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Wheat had a high cost - performance ratio and replaced the feed demand for corn. The weak wheat price suppressed the corn price. The auction of imported grains increased market supply, and the low transaction rate reflected weak market sentiment. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm was not high. The easing of trade situation increased import expectations, and the approaching listing of early - spring corn and the significant decrease in the cost of new - crop corn suppressed the long - term price expectation. The spot price of corn was expected to be weak [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: The futures price is expected to be volatile and weak [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5640 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.91%. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract was 300 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar after processing with additional tariffs was 436 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The double - week data of Brazil in July showed an increase in production, and the cumulative sugar - making ratio continued to reach a new high of 51.58%, with a double - week sugar - making ratio as high as 53.68%. The increasing production pressure in Brazil was gradually realized, and the raw sugar fluctuated at a low level. The domestic macro - sentiment cooled down, and the coastal sales area quotes dropped significantly this week, breaking below 6000 yuan/ton, indicating that the concentrated release of processed sugar was pressuring the spot. The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract is expected to be weak and volatile in the future, and the 01 contract will be below 6700 yuan/ton in the long - term [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The overnight US cotton futures rose, while the international crude oil price fluctuated weakly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, the August USDA data revised down the US cotton production and ending inventory, supporting the cotton price to stop falling and rebound. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to rise, and the August BCO data adjustment was positive for the cotton price. As of the end of July, the in - stock industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 898,400 tons, a decrease of 4600 tons from the previous month [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Buy on dips, with a trading strategy of range - bound trading between 13,800 - 14,300 yuan/ton [6]. Logs - **Market Performance**: The log 09 contract closed at 824.5 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 0.96%. As of August 8, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, an increase of 10 yuan/cubic meter from the previous week; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week; the spot price of 11.8 - meter spruce logs in Shandong was 1150 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week; the spot price of 11.8 - meter spruce logs in Jiangsu was 1160 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of logs rose, and the market had expectations for the future log market. In July, it entered the delivery market, and there were varying degrees of length increases in deliveries in different regions. The valuation below 800 yuan/cubic meter was low. With the cooling of macro - sentiment, in the short - term, it would be mainly based on the delivery logic, fluctuating around 800 yuan/cubic meter [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see [7]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, Malaysian palm oil rose, continuing to digest the positive report [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply, the MPOB estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production in July increased by 7% month - on - month, in the seasonal production - increasing cycle. In terms of demand, the export in the production area decreased month - on - month, and the MPOB showed that Malaysia's palm oil export in July increased by 4% month - on - month. There was a short - term supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and inventory continued to accumulate but was lower than market expectations [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is short - term bullish and medium - term long - biased, trading on the expectation of tight annual supply of oils [7]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The egg 2509 contract rebounded, and the spot price was stable [7]. - **Fundamentals**: High temperatures led to a seasonal decline in the egg - laying rate of hens, and downstream food factories were gradually stocking up, with demand possibly increasing seasonally. There were more newly - hatched laying hens, and

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On August 11th, the four major A-share stock indices all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.34% to 3647.55 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.46% to 11291.43 points, the ChiNext Index up 1.96% to 2379.82 points, and the STAR 50 Index up 0.59% to 1049.73 points. Market turnover was 1.8499 trillion yuan, an increase of 113.6 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, power equipment (+2.04%), communication (+1.95%), and computer (+1.94%) led the gains, while banks (-1.01%), petroleum and petrochemicals (-0.41%), and coal (-0.35%) led the losses [2]. - In terms of market strength, IM > IC > IF > IH. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 4,185, 166, and 1,066 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of 11.9 billion, -4.6 billion, -17.2 billion, and 9.9 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +24.8 billion, +17.4 billion, -19.1 billion, and -23.1 billion yuan respectively [2]. 2. Stock Index Futures - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 92.74, 92.96, 17.71, and 0.5 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of -11.13%, -12.12%, -3.58%, and -0.15% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 30%, 10%, 25%, and 43% respectively [3]. - The trading strategy is to maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy. Currently, using stock index futures as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips [3]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures - On August 11th, the yields of treasury bond futures all rose. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.4, up 1.06 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.566, up 2.42 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.653, up 2.18 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 2.022, up 3.49 bps [3]. - For the current active contracts, the CTD bonds and their corresponding net basis and IRR are as follows: for the 2 - year treasury bond futures (2509 contract), the CTD bond is 250006.IB, with a yield change of +1 bps, a net basis of 0.005, and an IRR of 1.39%; for the 5 - year, the CTD bond is 240020.IB, yield change +3.25 bps, net basis - 0.007, IRR 1.51%; for the 10 - year, the CTD bond is 250007.IB, yield change +2.75 bps, net basis - 0.044, IRR 1.88%; for the 30 - year, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, yield change +3.6 bps, net basis - 0.086, IRR 2.08% [4]. - In terms of the money supply, the central bank injected 112 billion yuan and withdrew 544.8 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 432.8 billion yuan [4]. - The trading strategy is that due to the rising risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium - to - long term [4]. 4. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent import - export and social activity sentiment has declined [10].

黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周一贵金属走弱，特朗普明确对黄金不征收关税，COMEX 黄金大幅走弱，拖累伦敦金下行。 基本面：特朗普在社交媒体上称黄金不会被征收关税；贝森特称"绝大部分"美国贸易谈判将在 10 月前完成； 特朗普政府扩大美联储主席候选人范围，鲍曼、Jefferson、Logan 入选。国内黄金 ETF 资金流出，COMEX 黄金库存 1200 吨，减少 2 吨；上期所黄金库存 36 吨，维持不变；伦敦 6 月黄金库存 8774 吨；上期所白银 库存 1151 吨，减少 7 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存 1368 吨，基本维持不变，COMEX 白银库存 15753 吨， 增加 11 吨；伦敦 6 月白银库存增加 421 吨至 23788 吨；印度 6 月白银进口约 200 吨左右。全球最大白银 etf--iShares 持有量为 15058 吨，增加 68 吨。 交易策略：去美元化逻辑未变，建议黄金做多；工业用银长期趋势向下，建议考虑逢高沽空白银。 风险提示：贸易战反复，美国经济下行超预期 2025年08月12日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | - ...

期货研究报告 | 商品研究 弱美元趋势下金属震荡偏强 ——20250810招商期货基本金属铜锡周报 2025年08月10日 • 研究员-马芸 • mayun@cmschina.com.cn • 联系电话：18682466799 • 资格证号： Z0018708 目录 01 周度回顾 本周观点 02 品种分析：铜锡 03 2 01 周度回顾 3 周度回顾 | | | 伦铜指数 | 伦铝指数 | 伦锌指数 | 伦铅指数 | 伦镍指数 | | 伦锡指数 | | 沪铜指数 | | 沪铝指数 | 沪锌指数 | 沪铅指数 | 沪镍指数 | 沪锡指数 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 过去一年 | | 8.2% | 13.3% | 3.1% | -1.4% | -7.3% | | 6.5% | 过去一年 | 6.2% | | 6.4% | -3.0% | -3.8% | -5.3% | 2.3% | | 过去一月 | | 1.1% | 0.5% ...