2024 年 8 月 1 日 Microsoft (MSFT US) 来自彭博社的更多报告 ： 重新设置 CMBR < GO > 或 http: / / www. cmbi. com. hk 收益汇总 请阅读最后一页的分析师认证和重要披露 2 预测和估值的变化 请阅读最后一页的分析师认证和重要披露 3 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------|--------------------|---------------|-------|------------|-------|-------|------------------|-----------|-----------| | 图 3 ： 微软 ： CMBI \n 十亿美元 | 预测与共识 \nFY25E | Current FY26E | FY27E | 共识 FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | 差异 FY25E FY26E | (%) | FY27E | | 收入 | 283. ...

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for New Oriental with a target price of US$95.00, down from the previous target of US$102.50, indicating a potential upside of 37.2% from the current price of US$69.25 [2][3]. Core Insights - New Oriental's core educational business has shown strong momentum, with a 32% year-over-year increase in net revenue for 4QFY24, reaching US$1,137 million, aligning with estimates [2]. - Non-GAAP net income for 4QFY24 declined by 41% year-over-year to US$36.9 million, primarily due to accelerated capacity expansion and increased investment in live streaming e-commerce [2]. - For FY24, total revenue and non-GAAP net income grew by 44% and 47% year-over-year, reaching US$4,314 million and US$381 million, respectively [2]. - Management expects total revenue for 1QFY25E to grow by 31-34% year-over-year, projecting a range of US$1,255-1,284 million [2]. Financial Performance Summary - FY23A revenue was US$2,998 million, increasing to US$4,314 million in FY24A, with projections of US$5,267 million for FY25E and US$6,258 million for FY26E [3][11]. - Adjusted net profit rose from US$258.9 million in FY23A to US$381.1 million in FY24A, with forecasts of US$571.7 million for FY25E and US$791.4 million for FY26E [3][11]. - The adjusted EPS is projected to increase from US$2.30 in FY24A to US$3.45 in FY25E and US$4.78 in FY26E [3][11]. Business Segments - The educational business has shown steady recovery, with overseas test prep and study consulting revenues growing by 17.7% and 17.3% year-over-year, respectively, in 4QFY24 [2]. - New educational initiatives reported a revenue increase of 50.3% year-over-year in 4QFY24, contributing approximately 20% to total revenue [2]. - East Buy is undergoing business adjustments, with revenue expected to decline by 20% year-over-year to US$741 million in FY25E due to management changes [2]. Valuation Methodology - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, estimating the educational and consulting business at US$89.9 per share based on a 30x FY25E PE, reflecting New Oriental's strong market position [8]. - East Buy is valued at US$1.7 per share based on a 7x FY25E PE, while the tourism segment is valued at US$3.3 per share based on a 15x FY25E PE [8].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on BaTeLab with a BUY rating and a target price (TP) of HK$49.8, based on a 19x 2024E P/E ratio [7][21][64]. Core Insights - BaTeLab is a leading provider of analog IC patterned wafers in China, focusing on the industrial-grade market, which has significant growth potential and high margins [7][20][21]. - The company has developed a unique full-stack design platform that integrates EDA, IP, and design, which enhances efficiency and reduces costs [7][21][62]. - BaTeLab's revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 38.0% from 2023 to 2026, with expected revenue reaching RMB1,220 million by 2026 [7][64]. Financial Analysis - Revenue growth from RMB353 million in 2020 to RMB464 million in 2023, with a CAGR of 74% [64]. - Net profit margin (NPM) is estimated to be 22.5% in 2024 and 23.5% in 2025, indicating stable profitability [21][64]. - Gross profit margin (GPM) is expected to remain around 54% from 2024 to 2026 [21][64]. Market Position - BaTeLab was the largest provider of analog IC patterned wafers in China by revenue in 2022, holding a 1.7% market share [7][20]. - The total addressable market (TAM) for industrial-grade analog ICs in China is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.5%, reaching RMB242 billion by 2027 [20][21]. - The industrial-grade analog IC market is characterized by high fragmentation, with the top five players holding only 5.0% of the market share [20][52]. Business Strategy - BaTeLab's business model focuses on the industrial-grade market, which has less competition compared to consumer-grade markets, allowing for better margin maintenance [20][21]. - The company leverages partnerships with distributors, which accounted for 82.3% of total revenue in 1H23, to enhance growth while keeping operating costs low [20][21]. - The full-stack design platform allows BaTeLab to mitigate geopolitical risks and achieve cost advantages, enhancing its competitive position [21][62].

31 Jul 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update WuXi AppTec (603259 CH) Impressive order growth despite geopolitical uncertainties WuXi AppTec reported 1H24 revenue of RMB17.24bn, down 8.6% YoY, attributable recurring net profit of RMB4.41bn, down 8.3% YoY, and attributable adjusted non-IFRS net profit of RMB4.37bn, down 14.2% YoY. 1H24 revenue / attributable adjusted non-IFRS net income accounted for 45.3%/ 46.0% of our 2024 full-year estimates and 43.8%/ 44.7% of Bloomberg ...

2024 年 7 月 31 日 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 越秀运输 （ 1052 香港 ） 1H24E 预览 ： 预计净利润同比增长 - 14% 由于交通分流 (上一个 TP HK $5.90 HK $7.20) 53.6% 越秀运输将在下周二 （ 8 月 6 日 ） 报告其 1H24 业绩。鉴于下降 在 5M24 年交通分流的交通量和收入方面 ， 我们 预测其上半年净利润将同比下降 14% ， 至 3.66 亿元人民币。我们下调 我们的 2024E - 26E 盈利预测为 17 - 19% ， 因为我们预计交通分流 一些主要的高速公路将继续。展望未来 ， 我们看到 公司持股比例 (至 12%)招商高速公路 (001965 CH, NR)暗示河南潜在资产注入的进展 平林高速公路 (河南平临高速) 和其他形式的潜在合作。 上 / 下 当前价格 港币 3.84 元 目标价格 中国收费公路 Wayne FUNG, CFA (852) 3900 0826 waynefung @ cmbi. com. hk 维护购买新的基于 DCF 的 TP 为 5.9 港元 (以前为 7.2 港元) ， 暗示 ...

2024 年 7 月 31 日 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 药明康德 （ 603259 CH ） 尽管地缘政治 ， 但令人印象深刻的订单增长 不确定性 (上一个 TP RMB54.27 RMB53.23) 33.4% 药明康德公布 1H24 营收 172.4 亿元人民币 ， 同比下降 8.6% ， 归属经常性净利润 441 亿元 ， 同比下降 8.3% ， 归属 调整后的非国际财务报告准则净利润 43.7 亿元人民币 ， 同比下降 14.2% 。 1H24 收入 / 可归属调整后的非国际财务报告准则净收入占我们的 45.3% / 46.0% 2024 年全年预估和彭博社共识的 43.8% / 44.7% ， 均为 这在很大程度上符合其历史范围。非 COVID D & M 收入 (在化学部分) 经历了 2.7% 的同比小幅下降 1H24 ， 继 1H23 年基数相对较高之后。值得注意的是 ， 药明康德的积压、 不包括 COVID - 19 商业项目 ， 上半年同比增长 33.2% ， 表明在地缘政治不确定性中客户需求强劲。管理层有 重申其 2024 年 38.3 - 405 亿元人民币的收 ...

31 Jul 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Yuexiu Transport (1052 HK) 1H24E preview: Expect net profit to -14% YoY due to traffic diversion Yuexiu Transport will report its 1H24 results next Tue (6 Aug). Given the decline in both traffic volume and revenue as a result of traffic diversion in 5M24, we forecast its net profit in 1H24E to drop 14% YoY to RMB366mn. We revise down our 2024E-26E earnings forecast by 17-19%, as we expect traffic diversion on some key expressway ...

每日投资策略 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------|----------------------------|----------------| | | | | | | | | | 公司点评 | 招银国际研究部 邮件： | research@cmbi.com.hk | | | | | 派拓网络（ PANW US ，首次覆盖 - 买入，目标价： 391.7 美元） - 网络安全巨 | | | | | | | 头迎接新一轮增长机会 | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | 升跌（ | % ） | | | 派拓网络（ PANW US ）是一家全球领先的网络安全提供商，帮 ...

Investment Rating - Initiate coverage with a BUY rating and a target price of US$391.7 per share, representing a 19.9% upside from the current price of US$326.81 [3][2]. Core Insights - Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for cybersecurity solutions, with a projected revenue CAGR of 16% from FY23 to FY26 and a non-GAAP net profit CAGR of 23% during the same period [2][10]. - The total addressable market (TAM) for PANW's key sectors—network security, cloud security, and Security Operation Center (SOC)—has grown from US$38 billion in 2018 to US$104 billion in 2023, with expectations to reach US$210 billion by 2028, driven by the adoption of Secure Access Service Edge (SASE) and cloud security [2][10][27]. - PANW's strong financial profile adheres to the "Rule of 50," indicating a balanced growth in revenue and profitability, which supports its valuation [2][14]. Cybersecurity Market Overview - The cybersecurity market is experiencing significant growth, with the TAM for PANW's sectors expected to expand at a CAGR of 15% from 2023 to 2028 [2][10]. - The demand for cybersecurity solutions is driven by an increasingly complex threat landscape, with cybercrimes costing the global economy US$8 trillion annually [28][27]. Company Positioning - PANW has been recognized as a leader in 23 product categories across network security, cloud security, and SOC, which enhances its competitive edge and market share [11][2]. - As of 2QFY24, 79% of Global 2000 customers have engaged with PANW on at least two platforms, indicating strong customer loyalty and product integration [11][2]. Platformization Strategy - The acceleration of PANW's Platformization strategy is expected to enhance market share gains, despite potential short-term impacts on billings and revenue growth [12][2]. - The strategy aims to improve customer total cost of ownership (TCO) and return on investment (ROI) by consolidating multiple cybersecurity solutions into a unified platform [27][12]. Growth Opportunities - PANW is poised to capitalize on the growing opportunities related to Generative AI, which could increase demand for its products and services while also allowing for potential price increases due to improved user experience and operational efficiency [13][2]. - The company is also focusing on international expansion and the adoption of next-generation security products to drive future revenue growth [12][2]. Financial Performance - PANW's revenue is projected to grow from US$6.9 billion in FY23 to US$10.8 billion by FY26, with a consistent year-over-year growth rate [7][2]. - The company has a strong financial profile, with a non-GAAP adjusted net profit expected to increase from US$1.4 billion in FY23 to US$2.7 billion by FY26 [7][2].